Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market focus remains on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. Port storage enterprises are reluctant to receive Iranian cargoes due to sanctions risks, which supports the port market. However, the situation of the potential restart of negotiations between the US and Iran needs further attention. - Inland coal - based methanol production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inland inventories are gradually increasing from a low level. Traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE have weakened, reducing support for the port market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 660 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices in different regions show different trends. Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2065 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 346 yuan/ton (-21). Inner Mongolia's southern line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2318 yuan/ton (-3), Henan is 2165 yuan/ton (-10), and Hebei is 2210 yuan/ton (-25). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 359,900 tons (+20,500), and the northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (+19,000). The inland factory's pending orders are 228,910 tons (+113,670), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 136,730 tons (+73,530) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2297 yuan/ton (-20), its basis is -22 yuan/ton (-41), CFR China is 267 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import price difference is -20 yuan/ton (-21). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,491,360 tons (-51,870), with Jiangsu port inventory at 773,000 tons (-20,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 224,000 tons (-63,500), and Guangdong port inventory at 323,000 tons (+23,000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (unchanged) [2]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences between different regions also show different changes. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is -55 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is -318 yuan/ton (-20) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Port**: On Thursday, port inventories rebounded again. The market's focus is on Iranian methanol vessels. Due to sanctions risks, port storage enterprises are less willing to receive Iranian cargoes, which supports the port market. The willingness of Chinese storage enterprises to receive Iranian methanol vessels remains low, leading to a decrease in shipments from some Iranian methanol enterprises, and attention should be paid to their factory inventory accumulation [3]. - **Inland**: The coal - based methanol production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inland inventories are increasing from a low level. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE have weakened, reducing support for the port market [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 at low levels. - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 at high levels [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean futures market showed an upward trend, while the spot market had a complex situation. With new grain harvest and ample supply, there is a risk of price decline. Some traders are increasing their purchases of Northeast soybeans. The peanut futures market is in a weak and volatile state, and the short - term supply - demand situation remains weak due to concerns about market impact from the concentrated listing of wheat - stubble peanuts and weak demand support [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Directory Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4018.00 yuan/ton, a change of +19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.48%. Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A11 + 22, a change of - 19 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - Market Information: Northeast new - season soybeans are mostly harvested, with over 90% of the remaining grain. High - protein soybeans are in high demand and have firm prices, while low - protein soybeans are weak. Low - protein common soybeans are priced at 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein at 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein at 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. In some regions of Heilongjiang, the prices of specific types of soybeans remained stable compared to the previous day. In Anhui, new - bean trading is light due to high moisture from rainfall, and some traders are buying Northeast soybeans. In Shandong, new - bean quality varies, and some local traders are increasing purchases of soybeans from other regions [2][3] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7966.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 96.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 1.19%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8350.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.12%. The spot basis was PK11 + 234.00, a change of +96.00 from the previous day, an increase of +69.57% [4] - Market Information: The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market is 4.18 yuan/jin, remaining stable. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills' contract purchase prices for general - quality and oil - grade peanuts are within certain ranges, and some oil mills have a good arrival volume. The peanut futures market is weakly volatile. Concerns about the concentrated listing of wheat - stubble peanuts and weak demand from most large oil mills have led to a weak short - term supply - demand situation [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows a pattern of reduced supply this week due to autumn maintenance, but new production capacities are gradually ramping up, resulting in an overall ample supply The market has seen some improvement in trading volume, with social inventories reaching an inflection point but still at a high level Exports are facing policy uncertainties, and the overall supply - demand situation remains weak The PVC futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] - The 32% caustic soda spot price shows mixed trends This week, the production has slightly decreased due to increased maintenance, while the demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the non - aluminum end's purchasing sentiment has improved There are uncertainties in the start - up of new alumina plants in Guangxi, and the cost support for caustic soda still exists [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,694 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 94 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is - 34 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,600 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 622 yuan/ton (+153), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 538 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit is 4.4 US dollars/ton (-2.4) [1] - Inventory and start - up: The in - plant PVC inventory is 38.4 million tons (+8.4), the social PVC inventory is 55.7 million tons (+1.9), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.14% (-5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 58.3 million tons (-19.3) [1] Market Analysis - The PVC futures price may rebound with the macro - sentiment after a volatile decline The supply has decreased this week due to autumn maintenance, but new production capacities are gradually ramping up, resulting in an overall ample supply The social inventory has reached an inflection point but is still at a high level Exports are facing policy uncertainties, and the overall supply - demand situation remains weak The high - level futures warehouse receipts are putting pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation [4] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,453 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 141 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,290 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 939.5 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 237.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.33 million tons (-1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 million tons (+0.34), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 81.40% (-2.90%) [2] - Downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 86.32% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.61% (-1.02%) [2] Market Analysis - The 32% caustic soda spot price shows mixed trends This week, the production has slightly decreased due to increased maintenance, while the demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the non - aluminum end's purchasing sentiment has improved There are uncertainties in the start - up of new alumina plants in Guangxi, and the cost support for caustic soda still exists [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Pay attention to the downstream purchasing and the start - up progress of alumina plants in Guangxi, and go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The PG futures market has rebounded recently, driven by factors such as a technical bounce after an oversold situation and concerns about potential supply disruptions from the US due to tariff threats. However, considering the uncertainties in macro and policy aspects during the China - US negotiation window and the expected continuation of the global oversupply situation in LPG, there are still resistances in the market [1] Market Analysis Summary - On October 16, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4310 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4810 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4490 - 4530 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 539 dollars/ton and 544 dollars/ton respectively, both up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4211 yuan/ton and 4250 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 533 dollars/ton and 538 dollars/ton respectively, also up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4164 yuan/ton and 4203 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each [1] - The recent rebound of the PG futures is due to an oversold bounce. After Saudi Arabia cut the October CP price more than expected, the overseas market dropped during the National Day holiday, and the domestic futures followed suit. The spot market was relatively stable, leading to a stronger basis. After the price decline, the cost reduction of raw materials is conducive to the marginal repair of downstream chemical profits and demand. The narrowing price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switch of raw materials from naphtha to LPG. The threat of US tariffs has also strengthened the rebound sentiment. But due to the uncertainties in macro and policy and the expected continuation of the global oversupply of LPG, the market resistance remains [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 72,820 yuan/ton and closed at 74,940 yuan/ton, with a 2.52% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 268,890 lots, and the open interest was 177,951 lots, down from 188,523 lots the previous day. The current basis was -700 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,456 lots, a decrease of 2,620 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 820 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and watching, and the overall market trading activity was flat [1]. - New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October was expected to have growth potential. The power market of new energy vehicles was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger use, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with a decrease in smelter and downstream inventory and a slight increase in intermediate inventory [1]. 2. Company News - On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipping ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products from its Malian Bugoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate would be shipped from Bugoni to the Port of San Pedro in Côte d'Ivoire and then to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship to provide core raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market rebounded before the close on the day, mainly affected by the overall strength of commodities, inventory reduction, and warehouse receipt cancellation. There was some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory was continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range - bound operations were recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be carried out at high prices. There were no specific strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - **PP**: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - **Cross - period**: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The rating for BR is neutral [7]. Report's Core View - For natural rubber, with reduced rainfall in major production areas, output is rising, and domestic raw material prices are falling. Although Thai raw material prices remain firm, the overall supply is expected to increase. After pre - holiday restocking by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down this week, but rigid demand persists due to the rising tire factory operating rate. The overall domestic supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the new round of state reserve sales news is confirmed. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between RU01 and 05 [6]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the recent low - level rebound of butadiene rubber futures prices is mainly due to the news of upstream device maintenance plans, which makes the market expect a decline in future supply. The recent rebound is more of a valuation repair after a large price drop. There are still maintenance plans for domestic butadiene rubber devices in October, and the supply side is still supported. After pre - holiday restocking by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down this week, but the rising tire factory operating rate means rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. It is expected that the downstream will continue the peak - season characteristics, and the supply - demand of butadiene rubber will show a pattern of both supply and demand being strong [7]. Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,900 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,315 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,135 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Data - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales volume was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]. - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. Looking at the August data alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales volume were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, the automobile export volume was 4.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 220 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,184 yuan/ton (+ 13.08), the NR basis was 814.00 yuan/ton (- 85.00); the price of whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,680 yuan/ton (+ 80), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,380 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.39 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai latex was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [4]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (- 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (- 705) [5]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Spreads: On October 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 235 yuan/ton (- 90), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,800 yuan/ton (+ 180), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,084 yuan/ton (+ 174) [5]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between RU01 and 05 [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Expect the supply - demand to show a pattern of both supply and demand being strong [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Sino-US relationship is currently in a stage of game, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The market is supported by funds actively propping up heavyweight stocks, leading to a rebound in the broader market index. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Regarding the Sino-US relationship, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, expressing an open attitude towards equal consultations on the basis of mutual respect. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions and a potential meeting between leaders. In the spot market, A-share indexes closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10% to 3916.23 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.38%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.65% to 45952.24 points. In the futures market, the basis of the current-month contract converged upon expiration, and the trading volume and open interest of the IH contract increased [1]. Strategy - The Sino-US relationship is in a game stage, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. In the market, funds are actively supporting heavyweight stocks, driving the broader market index to rebound. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [2]. Macro - Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on October 16, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09%. There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and the margin trading balance [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IH contract increased by 5009, and the open interest increased by 6373. The basis data of different contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are also presented, as well as the inter - period spreads between different contracts [16][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a split between strong expectations and weak reality, with increased economic pressure in August and recent frequent mentions of growth - stabilizing policies, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, and attention to policy expectations and the correction of the off - season - like peak season expectations. China's September economic data such as exports, imports, new social financing, and CPI showed positive trends [1]. - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st [2]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [3]. - In the commodity market, focus on gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors, and consider multi - allocating industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in August showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and external tariff pressure increased. In September, exports and imports exceeded expectations, new social financing and new RMB loans increased, and the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed [1]. - On October 16th, the A - share market fluctuated, with the coal sector rising, the shipping and port sector pulling up, and the storage chip concept remaining active [1][6]. Tariff Friction - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated, with the US adding tariffs on Chinese products and listing Chinese companies on the entity list, and China taking counter - measures such as export controls on rare earths and charging special port fees for US ships [2]. US Government Shutdown - The US Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and the US judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from laying off employees during the "shutdown". Multiple US economic data releases were delayed, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [3]. Commodity Market - In the commodity market, focus on gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, the energy supply is considered to be moderately loose in the medium - term, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations, and gold is expected to continue to strengthen [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, multi - allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. A - Share Market - On October 16th, the A - share market fluctuated, with more stocks falling than rising, and sectors such as coal, shipping and ports, and storage chips performing actively, while some concept stocks such as lithography machines and controllable nuclear fusion adjusted [6].