1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton [1] - The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Option Trading Volume - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1468,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,727,300 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,823,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 112,100 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2,461,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 96,000 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 194,000 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 448,200 contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 700,400 call contracts and 842,500 put contracts for Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options, with a total of 1,542,900 contracts [20]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.98, with a month - on - month change of +0.38; the position PCR was reported at 0.75, with a month - on - month change of +0.00. Similar data is provided for other types of options, like the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.14, with a month - on - month change of +0.40, and the position PCR was 0.92, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06 [2][34]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 19.91%, with a month - on - month change of +1.39%. For other options, such as the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 20.55%, with a month - on - month change of +1.74%, and the VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 25.02%, with a month - on - month change of +1.90% [3][47].

供应压力延续，猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 农产品日报 | 2025-10-14 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11125元/吨，较前交易日变动-195.00元/吨，幅度-1.72%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-15，较前交易日变动+115；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH11+85，较前交易日变动+135；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.43元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH11-695，较前交易日变动-335。 据农业农村部监测，10月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.70，比上周六上升0.28个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为119.61，比上周六上升0.33个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.47元/公斤，比上周六下降1.6%； 牛肉66.34元/公斤，比上周六上升0.5%；羊肉62.06元/公斤，比上周六上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.76元/公斤，比上周六下降 1.4%；白条鸡17.55元/公斤，比上周六下降0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The main port of ethylene glycol (EG) continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is operating weakly. The spot price of EG in the East China market increased by 2.65% compared to the previous trading day, and the futures price also slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas EG supply. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has rebounded after hitting the bottom [2]. - The strategy includes: cautiously short - selling on rallies for single - side trading; conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 for inter - period trading; and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,111 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton, +0.27% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,178 yuan/ton (up 108 yuan/ton, +2.65% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - based EG was - 527 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, the demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.1 tons (up 3.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (up 4.3 tons month - on - month). From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main port was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.5 tons, with the inventory likely to continue to accumulate [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, so keeping it as is) [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. The lead price is expected to show a volatile pattern, roughly ranging from 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 38.22 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,925 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,160 yuan/ton, closed at 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 66,594 lots, an increase of 30,286 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 43,988 lots, a decrease of 807 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,290 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,085 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Consumption and Inventory - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered at a discount of 130 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract; in Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract, and some traders offered at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead; in Guangdong, smelters offered at a premium of 25 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead. Downstream consumption showed no improvement, and battery enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, resulting in a dull trading in the spot market. On October 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 13, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Energy Sector - International oil prices have shown a significant decline during the recent pricing cycle, leading to a reduction of 70 CNY per ton for gasoline and 75 CNY per ton for diesel in China[1] - The average price drop for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 diesel is 0.06 CNY per liter, resulting in a savings of 3 CNY for filling a 50-liter tank with 92 octane gasoline[1] Agricultural Sector - The price of eggs has decreased significantly, with a reported drop of 17.47% to 6.0 CNY per kilogram[37] Transportation Sector - The Ministry of Transport has implemented a special port service fee for U.S. owned or operated vessels, affecting various categories of ships, including those with 25% or more U.S. ownership[1] Chemical Industry - The PTA operating rate is declining, indicating a slowdown in production within the chemical sector[3] Coal Consumption - Power plants are currently operating at low coal consumption levels, reflecting a decrease in energy demand[3] Real Estate Market - There has been a slight improvement in commodity housing sales in second and third-tier cities, suggesting a potential recovery in the real estate market[3] Flight Operations - Domestic flight schedules remain stable, indicating consistent demand in the transportation sector[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's export growth in September was strong, providing support for the domestic economy. Large funds actively supported the market, causing the index to open lower and close higher. The non - ferrous metals sector continued to strengthen, but the risk in the market may not be fully released. Consider low - buying opportunities in IC and IM [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends, with data sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][10] 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on October 13, 2025 showed that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.50, down 0.19%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13231.47, down 0.93%; the ChiNext Index was at 3078.76, down 1.11%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on that day was about 2.4 trillion yuan. The sector indices showed more declines than increases, with non - ferrous metals, environmental protection, and steel industries leading the gains, while the automotive, household appliances, beauty care, and media industries led the losses [1][12] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM increased simultaneously. The trading volume of IF was 168,279, an increase of 6,129; the open interest was 283,359, an increase of 4,778. The trading volume of IC was 176,728, an increase of 6,338; the open interest was 267,579, an increase of 7,505. The trading volume of IM was 286,550, an increase of 53,100; the open interest was 371,285, an increase of 14,358. The trading volume of IH was 73,530, a decrease of 403; the open interest was 103,523, a decrease of 2,220. - Regarding the basis, the basis of stock index futures declined on that day. For example, the basis of the IF contract's current - month contract was - 8.38, a decrease of 5.34; the basis of the IH contract's current - month contract was - 1.01, a decrease of 2.15; the basis of the IC contract's current - month contract was - 26.56, a decrease of 10.34; the basis of the IM contract's current - month contract was - 42.96, a decrease of 23.34. - For the inter - delivery spread, different spreads and their quantiles are provided, such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the spread between the next - season and current - month contracts, etc. [15][39][43]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 13, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 72,280 yuan/ton, a -1.12% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 282,178 lots, and the open interest was 207,463 lots, compared to 221,919 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 900 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 36,718 lots, a change of -5,951 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,300 - 73,900 yuan/ton, a change of -450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,250 - 71,450 yuan/ton, also a change of -450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 818 US dollars/ton, a change of -10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The psychological expectation price of downstream material factories continued to decrease, and the overall market transaction activity was average [1]. - In terms of supply, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene end and the salt lake end, and it was expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still had growth potential. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market for both commercial and passenger use in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy - storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. 2. Company News - BYD announced its production and sales report for September 2025. In September 2025, the total installed capacity of BYD's new - energy vehicle power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 23.2 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 17.17% and a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The cumulative installed capacity in 2025 was approximately 203.251 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.14% [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market was weak on the day, but there was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, inventory continued to decline, and the market had some support. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline. Recently, the market was greatly affected by macro - sentiment. If there was a large rebound, short - selling hedging could be carried out at high prices [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated, the cost support of crude oil for polyethylene has weakened, and new device production has increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. The overall supply of PE and PP has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened, so the polyolefins continue to be weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,983 yuan/ton (-54), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (-29). The spot prices and basis of LL and PP in different regions have also changed [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit is 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of PE downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film, and PP downstream industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP film have all increased to varying degrees [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated. The decline of crude oil has weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and new device production has increased supply pressure. The supply has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **PP**: After the holiday, the decline of PP is obvious, mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and the significant decline of propane prices. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L; PP fluctuates weakly [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05; Reverse spread PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]