液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-24 地缘扰动持续，需求改善乏力 市场分析 1、\t6月23日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4850；东北市场，4130—4310；华北市场，4570—4800；华东市场， 4530—4650；沿江市场，4780—4880；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4748。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷645美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5092元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷648美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5116元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 现货方面，多数区域价格稳中上涨，上游走货顺畅，下游积极入市。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，但随伊以冲 突发酵，伊朗供应面临下行风险；国内炼厂检修结束，国内供应逐步回升，但短期到港压力有所缓和。需求方面， 燃烧需求疲软，PDH装置开工率 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-24 成本端支撑仍存，基本面矛盾暂有限 市场分析 1、6月23日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3781元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨30元/吨，涨幅 0.8%；持仓311332手，环比上涨26819手，成交317501手，环比上涨64215手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3980—4086元/吨；山东，3760—4030元/吨；华南，3650—3750元/吨； 华东，3680—3800元/吨。 昨日西北地区沥青现货价格暂时持稳，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度上涨。在中东局势冲突的影响下， 油价维持偏强运行，沥青成本端支撑仍存。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。更 具体来看，南方终端需求受到降雨天气抑制，但北方刚需支撑尚可，月底市场现货资源收紧，但下游对高价资源 采购仍相对谨慎。整体来看，目前沥青自身基本面驱动不足，盘面价格上涨主要受到原油端带动，情绪因素居多， 考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 交割规则改变，纸浆冲高回落 棉花观点 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13465元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14780元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，现货基差CF09+1315，较前一日变动+46；3128B棉全国均价14894元/吨， 较前一日变动+15元/吨，现货基差CF09+1429，较前一日变动+45。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司(CONAB)6月份发布的2024/25年度最新产量预测数据：本年度巴西棉花总 产预期为391.3万吨，较上一月调增0.8万吨。本年度种植面积下调至208.15万公顷，单产上调至125.3公斤/亩。Conab 小幅上调巴西棉产量评估，但种植面积下调。不过由于23/24年度陈花销售较好，下调了24/25年度期初库存，因此 期末库存评估下调。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过此次谈判中 并没有明显利好中国对美出口的协议达成，宏 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-24 青岛港口库存环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13950元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。NR主力合约12010元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13950元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13820元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1700美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1640美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11600元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 近期市场资讯：2025年5月中国天然橡胶进口量环比减少13.35%，同比增加30.51%，1-5月累计进口量同比增幅扩 大至25.25%。 据隆众资讯了解，预计本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率表现基本稳定，全钢胎企业排产暂稳运行，检修半钢胎企业 复工对整体产能利用率形成一定拉动，但多数企业根据自身订单及库存情况灵活调整排产，个别企业或存适度降 低排产可能，预计产能利用率整体波动不大。 我国乘联分 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-24 花生收购量持续低位，价格震荡运行 市场分析 无 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4250.00元/吨，较前日变化-9.00元/吨，幅度-0.21%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A07-70，较前日变化+9，幅度32.14%。 花生观点 市场资讯汇总：周五，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低0.7%，主要原因是美国中 西部地区的天气有利于作物生长，周末前多头获利平仓抛售。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌4美分到7.50美分不等，其 中7月期约下跌6.75美分，报收1068美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌5.25美分，报收1071.50美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌7.50 美分，报收1060.75美分/蒲式耳。6月23日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯 富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 策略 谨慎偏空 出栏略有减少，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13980元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.72元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动+305；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+840，较前交易日变动+75；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09-230，较前交易日变动+15。 据农业农村部监测，6月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.08元/公斤，比上周五下降1.2%； 牛肉64.01元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；羊肉59.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.34元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.8%；白条鸡16.88元/公斤，比 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-24 地缘影响减弱，尿素震荡走低 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-23，尿素主力收盘1711元/吨（-19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-70）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（-60）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：39 元/吨（-51）；河南基差：49元/吨（-41）；江苏基差：59元/吨（-41）；尿素生产利润220元/吨（-70），出口利润648 元/吨（+136）。 供应端：截至2025-06-23，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨（-4.11），港口样本 库存量为29.50 万吨（+5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-23，复合肥产能利用率31.82%（-1.99%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%（+0.55%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 伊朗以色列地缘对尿素盘面影响减弱，重回基本面交易，尿素震荡走低。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划偏少， 产量预计走高，供应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - As the lead battery consumption peak season in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton, closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 26,206 lots, down 672 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 28,273 lots, down 5,834 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,825 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,925 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The lead price in the futures market was weak and volatile. In different regions, the quotation methods and discounts or premiums varied, and the downstream maintained rigid demand procurement with poor enthusiasm for stocking at low prices [2] Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, down 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 23, the LME lead inventory was 281,025 tons, down 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for lead is neutral. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The arbitrage strategy is to be postponed [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to ferment, and the crude oil price is strong, which boosts the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The market may face repeated fluctuations due to the unclear situation [1]. - The contango structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened recently, but there is still some support after market adjustment as the power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to increase with the approaching summer. There is a potential upward risk in the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market if Iranian refineries and ports are severely damaged [1]. - The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the downstream bunker fuel demand is good. However, after the end of the refinery maintenance season in China, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rise, and it lacks a continuous upward driver without geopolitical disturbances [2]. - The strategies for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are both to be oscillating and strengthening, and attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.18% at 3385 yuan/ton. The contango structure has weakened, indicating relatively abundant spot supply. The weak profit of downstream refineries restricts procurement demand. With the approaching summer, power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt will increase. If Iranian refineries and ports are damaged, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil may decrease, and the raw material source of Chinese refineries may tighten [1]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.31% at 4032 yuan/ton. The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the domestic production in May is at a low level. The bunker fuel sales in Singapore in May increased significantly, showing good downstream demand. After the end of the refinery maintenance season in China, the domestic production is expected to recover [2]. Strategy - **High - sulfur**: Oscillating and strengthening, pay attention to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict situation [3]. - **Low - sulfur**: Oscillating and strengthening, pay attention to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict situation [3]. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy [3]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy [3]. - **Spot - futures**: No strategy [3]. - **Options**: No strategy [3].

流动性日报 | 2025-06-24 市场流动性概况 2025-06-23，股指板块成交4485.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.29%；持仓金额9452.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +6.85%；成交持仓比为47.86%。 国债板块成交2504.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.80%；持仓金额8958.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.08%；成交持 仓比为28.50%。 基本金属板块成交2124.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%；持仓金额3853.50亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.54%；成 交持仓比为68.37%。 贵金属板块成交3568.10亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.10%；持仓金额4429.35亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.73%；成交 持仓比为81.87%。 能源化工板块成交7706.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.01%；持仓金额4141.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.26%；成 交持仓比为123.34%。 农产品板块成交3040.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.76%；持仓金额5736.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.86%；成交 持仓比为46.82%。 黑色建材板块成交1547.05亿 ...