Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU is cautiously bullish, NR is neutral, and BR is neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent support for natural rubber comes from the macro - environment and upstream cost. With continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas this week, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, but will fall after the rain stops. The overall supply pressure is small due to low domestic arrivals, but arrivals are expected to increase at the end of August. The downstream tire operating rates are divided, with semi - steel tire operating rates falling and all - steel tire operating rates rising. Attention should be paid to tire manufacturers' stocking willingness before the traditional peak demand season [4] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase this week as some upstream devices restart and some undergo short - term maintenance. The downstream tire operating rates are divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire operating rates has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. Upstream butadiene prices are expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 85 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Thai 20 - gauge standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the Indonesian 20 - gauge standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, a change of + 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 634,000 tons, a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, a nearly 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (+ 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,220 yuan/ton (- 35), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,426 yuan/ton (+ 645.59), the NR basis was 224.00 yuan/ton (- 20.00); whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 50), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,805 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (- 150) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.28 Thai baht/kg (- 1.87), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+ 2.56%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (- 0.60%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990.00), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+ 3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+ 4,234) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 18, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 215), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,091 yuan/ton (+ 56) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.52% (- 3.65%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,990 tons (- 300), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,450 tons (- 700) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various stock index options on August 18, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On August 18, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 ETF option was 1876200 contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1822000 contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 2344800 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 177000 contracts; GEM ETF option was 3272800 contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 stock index option was 55600 contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index option was 160500 contracts; CSI 1000 option was 359400 contracts [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for different stock index options is also provided in Table 1 [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data for different stock index options showed various changes. For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 ETF option was 0.40, with a month - on - month change of - 0.09; the position PCR was 1.08, with a month - on - month change of + 0.01. Similar data for other options are presented in Table 2 [37]. Option VIX - The VIX data for different stock index options also had different changes. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 ETF option was 21.64%, with a month - on - month change of + 2.02%. The data for other options are shown in Table 3 [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal plantations has led to a volatile and upward - trending palm oil market. The price of palm oil is affected by Indonesia's policy of confiscating illegal plantations, and the market is also influenced by factors such as the inventory and production of various oils [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,584.00 yuan/ton, a +1.31% change; the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,516.00 yuan/ton, a -0.21% change; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,826.00 yuan/ton, a +0.71% change [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a +2.04% change; in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8,630.00 yuan/ton, a +0.12% change; in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 9,960.00 yuan/ton, a +0.91% change [1] Market Information Aggregation - As of August 18, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.75865 million tons, a decrease of 82,400 tons from the previous week [2] - From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [2] - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 104,500 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (September and November shipments) decreased, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (September and November shipments) increased. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) decreased, and the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [2] - The import soybean premium quotes also increased [2] Policy Impact - Indonesian President Prabowo launched a large - scale natural resource rectification campaign, confiscating 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm plantations, equivalent to 20% of the country's official total plantation area, and another 5 million hectares are under government review, causing palm oil to strengthen [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The decline in the absolute price center has not stimulated the improvement of the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The discount in the Guangdong region has further widened. The import TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$5.22/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of -90 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,410 yuan/ton and closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,217 lots, and the open interest was 69,630 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,445 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,310 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 135,400 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The decline in zinc prices has not improved the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the粕类 sector is neutral [3] - The investment strategy for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - The current domestic soybean supply remains abundant with no significant changes in the fundamentals However, the results of the recent anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the prices of粕类 Meanwhile, there is still no obvious progress in Sino - US trade policies, and future developments are uncertain The Brazilian premium remains strong, providing support at the cost end [2] - In the domestic corn market, the channel inventories in the Northeast and North China regions are relatively low, and traders are more willing to sell The demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable with decreasing inventories Feed enterprises have reduced their corn positions and mainly make sporadic purchases The new wheat usage is stable Overall, there is insufficient upward momentum in prices, and the market is focused on the arrival of new grain [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (粕类) - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕2509 contract was 3155 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day; the菜粕2509 contract was 2590 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (+1.73%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton In Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: In July, NOPA member companies crushed 195.699 million bushels of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 7% The crushing volume reached a six - month high and the highest level for July in NOPA records [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn2509 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch2509 contract was 2594 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.77%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: As of August 13, 2024/25, Argentina had harvested 46.73 million tons of corn, with a progress of 94.6% and an average yield of 7.21 tons per hectare [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The improvement of rigid demand is still weak under the influence of weather and funds, and speculative demand is also weak. The destocking rate of social inventory is weaker than the seasonal average. The current market pressure is limited, but if oil prices continue to fall, asphalt prices will weaken further. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents is worth watching, as changes in US sanctions policies may bring additional volatility risks to the crude oil and asphalt markets [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - On August 18, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon was 3,473 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 225,280 lots, a decrease of 1,549 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 175,487 lots, an increase of 29,255 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,500 - 3,870 yuan/ton; South China, 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton; East China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt spot prices in the northwest market were relatively stable yesterday, while those in other regions declined to varying degrees. Due to the recent weak oil price trend and poor asphalt demand, market sentiment is cautious [2]. Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: None - Inter - commodity spread: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3] Group 5: Figures - The report includes figures on spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - term: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. With the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory in September. If subsequent production cuts are substantial and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may reverse, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2] Market Analysis Summary - On August 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 89,240 yuan/ton, with a 4.67% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,036,328 lots, and the open interest was 421,106 lots, up from 401,139 lots the previous day. The current basis was - 4,160 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,555 lots, a change of 70 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 - 86,700 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 - 83,000 yuan/ton, also up 1,900 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,035 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement enthusiasm continued to increase, and market activity enhanced. Due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with the output from salt lakes and spodumene increasing and the output from mica decreasing. The weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with an increase in intermediate - link inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [1] Strategy Summary - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. The mining end in Jiangxi is greatly affected, with large factories having stopped production and the resumption progress unknown. Other mines are required to complete relevant report writing by September 30, and the subsequent impact on production is uncertain. In addition, a lithium salt production enterprise in Qinghai may face the possibility of shutdown due to mining license issues. Based on the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory from September. If subsequent production cuts are large and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may change, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Report Core Views - The cotton market has limited upward momentum and will likely continue to fluctuate. Although the global supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tighter one, there are doubts about the supply reduction, and the downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [1][2] - The sugar market will mainly follow the trend of raw sugar. In the short - term, it will be range - bound due to domestic spot pressure, but there may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter [4][6] - The pulp market has no obvious improvement in fundamentals and lacks positive drivers. It is expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short term [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,082 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a decrease of 5.117 million mu, and the harvest area was 44.65 million mu, a decrease of 7.928 million mu, with an abandonment rate of 20.7%, up 6.3 percentage points [1] - India's 2023/24 cotton production was expected to be 5.72 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons (+3.4%), and imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 tons (-13.1%). The ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons (+29.8%) [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending inventory made the supply - demand pattern tighter, but the lack of abnormal weather in the US cotton - growing areas and other major producing countries led to doubts about the tight pattern, and ICE cotton fluctuated [2] - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton in July, low expected imports in the third quarter, and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas supported cotton prices in the short term. However, weak downstream demand limited the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but potential regulatory policies and the lack of long - term upward drivers limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar to meet domestic demand and stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian bi - weekly report showed a slight decrease in sugarcane crushing and sugar production but a record - high sugar - making ratio, leading to a decline in raw sugar futures. However, concerns about sugarcane quality and downward revisions of Brazilian production estimates limited the decline [5][6] - In the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales, high import profits, and large - scale arrival of imported sugar increased spot pressure. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new crushing season may lead to a rally in the fourth quarter [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on changes in Brazilian production estimates [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] - The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with individual price adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, especially for hardwood pulp. With the commissioning of domestic pulp production capacity in the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to decline. However, slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8] - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and a traditional off - season in the domestic market led to weak demand. Low effective terminal demand, low paper mill operating rates, and over - capacity in the paper industry limited demand improvement [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. With no obvious improvement in the pulp market fundamentals, prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing, consumption is stable, inventory is high, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating. Policy influence needs attention [1][2][3][6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On August 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8805 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day's settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 297,619 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,710, a change of 111 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable, with only individual silicon prices in Tianjin rising [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton (-400 yuan/ton). The price decline was due to the approaching end of previously undelivered orders and poor new order reception, prompting monomer plants to cut prices to stimulate downstream enterprises to stock up. Downstream customers made purchases according to production needs [1] Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - With supply growing, consumption stable, high total inventory, and slight fluctuations in spot prices, short - term range trading is recommended. If the market drops significantly, medium - to - long - term hedging by buying at low prices can be considered. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On August 18, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 52,810 yuan/ton and closing at 52,280 yuan/ton, a 1.71% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The main contract's position was 135,517 lots (138,723 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 425,548 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a 3.86% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a 3.60% change), polysilicon weekly output was 29,300.00 tons (-0.30% change), and silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a 0.67% change) [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.34 yuan/piece [3] Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. Short - term range trading is recommended, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Group 7: Market Analysis of Battery Cells and Components - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 8: Factors to Monitor - Factors to monitor include the resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in polysilicon enterprise operations, policy disturbances, macro and capital sentiment, and the operating conditions of organic silicon enterprises [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - The supply of electrolytic aluminum has a slight increase in capacity, with limited impact. Consumption is in the seasonal off - peak but shows signs of improvement, and the aluminum price correction space is limited. The long - term supply is restricted, and the consumption peak season can be expected [6]. - The bidding price of alumina in Xinjiang has decreased week - on - week. The risk of cornering the market has decreased, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The price of bauxite is difficult to rise, and the supply of alumina will continue to show a pattern of tightness in the south and looseness in the north [7][8]. - The price spread of AD2511 - AL2511 contracts and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. The spread of the 11 - contract is relatively stable, and arbitrage can still be concerned [9]. Summary by Categories Aluminum Market Data - **Spot prices**: On August 18, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,550 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,440 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Futures prices**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,695 yuan/ton and closed at 20,600 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 109,366 lots, and the open interest was 172,995 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, with a change of 1.9 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 65,492 tons, with a change of 301 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 25 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot prices**: On August 18, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,215 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures prices**: The main contract of alumina opened at 3,212 yuan/ton and closed at 3,171 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 332,334 lots, and the open interest was 177,575 lots [2]. - **Bidding price**: The weekly bidding price of Xinjiang aluminum plants decreased by about 10 yuan/ton, and the winning bid - delivered price was 3,480 - 3,490 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy Market Data - **Prices**: On August 18, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. - **Cost and profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The supply increase has limited impact, and consumption is in the off - peak but shows signs of turning to the peak season. The aluminum price correction space is limited, and the long - term supply is restricted [6]. - **Alumina**: The bidding price has decreased, the risk of cornering the market has decreased, the bauxite price is difficult to rise, and the supply pattern of tight south and loose north will continue [7][8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The price spread and smelting profit show a seasonal repair trend, and the 11 - contract spread is stable for arbitrage [9]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bullish on aluminum, cautiously bearish on alumina, and cautiously bullish on aluminum alloy [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider positive spreads in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10].