Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,490 yuan/ton and closed at 120,330 yuan/ton, a change of -0.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest was 55,967 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is about to switch to the 2510 contract. The night - session of the main contract opened and quickly rose to 121,450 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, then fell to 120,140 yuan/ton and finally closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 78,139 lots, and the open interest was 62,507 lots. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 120,490 yuan, a high of 120,950 yuan, a low of 120,050 yuan, and finally closed at 120,330 yuan, down 450 yuan or 0.37%. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest decreased to 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots from the night - session. On August 18, the LME nickel price closed at $15,095/ton, down 0.66%, and further fell to $15,110/ton on August 19, with the lowest intraday reaching $15,050, approaching the key support level of $15,000 [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price of nickel ore is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly $32, and the mine - end price has a slight upward trend. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, and iron plants are still in losses, so they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in August decreased slightly by $0.03 - $0.04; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second - phase of August to decline due to thin profits [3]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak during the day, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises did not change significantly. The spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were stable. Driven by the ex - factory price of Jinchuan resources, the premium increased slightly. Russian nickel resources have been replenished recently, and the spot shortage has eased, with the spot premium decreasing slightly. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 (-210.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,328 (-1,086) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, the nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment, but the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,885 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest was 133,538 lots [4]. - The night - session of the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,015 yuan/ton, then rose to 13,070 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, and finally closed at 13,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low was 12,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the bulls' tentative rebound was suppressed by the bears. The trading volume was 121,765 lots, and the open interest was 134,400 lots, a slight decrease from the previous day, showing that the long and short funds chose to wait and see after the game. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 13,000 yuan/ton, a high of 13,025 yuan/ton, a low of 12,855 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 12,885 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.07%. The price broke through the key support level of 12,900 yuan, triggering some stop - loss orders. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest decreased to 133,538 lots, a decrease of 862 lots from the night - session, showing obvious signs of capital leaving [5]. - In the spot market, affected by the sharp decline of the futures market, the price - holding sentiment of spot traders has weakened. Coupled with the continued weak trading in the previous days and the increasing pressure to sell at the end of the month, the quotes have loosened and declined slightly. However, affected by the market psychology of buying on rising and not on falling, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment has further intensified, and the trading situation has become even lighter. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,075 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,075 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 260 - 410 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 927.0 yuan/nickel point [6]. Strategy - Currently, it is still in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand, and the fundamentals have not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7].

1、\t8月19日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4500；东北市场，3900-4110；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4280-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4700；西北市场，4200-4300；华南市场，4428-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷568美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4462元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4281元/吨，跌30元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷560美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4399元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4219元/吨，跌29元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-20 产销温和，下游刚需为主 市场分析 LPG整体供需格局维持宽松，市场弱势运行，近期出现一些边际利好但尚不足以逆转氛围，昨日外盘价格再度出 现下跌。现货方面，昨日山东、西北及华南区域价格上涨，其余区域维稳，整体市场产销温和，下游刚需为主。 供应方面，海外供应整体维持充裕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is also hard to have a remarkable performance, but it won't collapse significantly due to relatively stable power grid orders. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Operationally, it is still recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging, with the operation range at 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Biden meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put some pressure on LME copper prices [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 19, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton, a -0.08% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was light. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,010 - 79,190 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 195 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decline from the previous day. The market supply and demand were both weak, and the spot premium is expected to continue to decline under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House is planning a possible meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. Geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly. Domestically, policies to promote consumption are expected to support demand [3] - **Mine End**: The ore body scale of Marimaka Copper's Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile has expanded, and the company's stock price has reached a new high in more than 13 years [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, more smelters reduced production due to supply shortages [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 155,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,498 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 20 was 133,700 tons, a change of 8,100 tons from the previous week [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on August 19, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][8] 3.2 Stock Index Plate - On August 19, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 662.715 billion yuan, a - 21.47% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1237.385 billion yuan, a - 4.20% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.17%. There are also figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, precipitation funds trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [1][5] 3.3 Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 671.725 billion yuan, a - 0.97% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 807.064 billion yuan, a - 2.92% change; the trading - holding ratio was 85.38%. There are figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, precipitation funds trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][5] 3.4 Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the base metals plate was 365.784 billion yuan, a - 9.88% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 507.028 billion yuan, a - 1.20% change; the trading - holding ratio was 86.88%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 183.965 billion yuan, a - 3.42% change; the holding amount was 424.613 billion yuan, a - 0.48% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.26%. There are figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change amount, precipitation funds trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [1][5] 3.5 Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 458.095 billion yuan, a - 1.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 426.170 billion yuan, a - 0.25% change; the trading - holding ratio was 89.21%. There are figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change amount, precipitation funds trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [1][5] 3.6 Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 350.971 billion yuan, a - 13.47% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 613.232 billion yuan, a + 0.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 51.54%. There are figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change amount, precipitation funds trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [1][5] 3.7 Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 320.480 billion yuan, a - 17.79% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 393.941 billion yuan, a - 0.54% change; the trading - holding ratio was 79.81%. There are figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change amount, precipitation funds trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][5]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the industrial silicon futures market may experience a short - term correction. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, but it may be affected by the sentiment of other commodities and decline. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, the futures are at a premium to the spot due to policy expectations, and the market may fluctuate widely in the short - term, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [1][2][8] Group 3: Industry Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,615 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-1.26%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 286,605 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on August 18 was 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with some individual silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, and Shanghai areas decreasing, while those in the northwest, Xinjiang, and Sichuan regions remained unchanged [1] - **Supply Side**: According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Constrained by weak terminal demand, market transactions were still below expectations, and monomer factories offered discounts to reduce inventory, expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term [1] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 52,275 yuan/ton and closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 137,977 lots (135,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 580,607 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 24.20 (a month - on - month increase of 3.86%), silicon wafer inventory at 19.80GW (a month - on - month increase of 3.60%), weekly polysilicon output at 29,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%), and silicon wafer output at 12.10GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.67%) [4] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Chip**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery chips was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery chips was about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - slice battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W. On August 18, the bidding for the second batch of photovoltaic component procurement for China Resources Power's 2025 photovoltaic projects opened, with a total procurement capacity of 3GW in three bid sections [6] Group 4: Policy Information - On August 19, multiple departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, requiring the photovoltaic industry to strengthen industrial regulation, curb low - price disorderly competition, standardize product quality, and support industry self - regulation to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [2] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk premium is weakening due to the expected "Putin-Zelensky meeting", and there are still strong differences in the market regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will mainly fluctuate in the near future and wait for Powell's guidance at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 750 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8][9]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still synchronized with that of gold, mainly based on the Fed's interest rate cut path on the macro - level, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply - demand fundamentals of silver. With the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and differences in the Fed's interest rate cut path, the silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8900 yuan/kilogram and 9400 yuan/kilogram [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, covering various products such as wind turbines and furniture [1]. - The White House is planning a possible meeting among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest, and geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly [1]. - Fed's Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of crypto - products, reflecting the US government's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.98 yuan/gram, closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 772.60 yuan/gram, down 0.32% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9263.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.77% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 272,701 lots, and the open interest was 342,500 lots. The night - session closed at 9061 yuan/kilogram, down 1.37% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 19, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.31%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.56%, down 0.8 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position and short - position changes were 0 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,718 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position changed by 2 lots, and the short - position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 411,181 lots, down 10.67% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 3.15 tons, down 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.34 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 710.76 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.36, up 0.44% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.91, up 1.19% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 21,362 kilograms, down 3.88% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 333,308 kilograms, up 22.46% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6506 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 10,140 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in batteries. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - $44.00 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,675 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead remained at 16,750 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead remained at 16,675 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead remained at 16,700 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at 0 yuan per ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained at 10,175 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained at 10,150 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells remained at 10,475 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan per ton and closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,255 lots, a decrease of 3,340 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,112 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,865 yuan per ton and a low of 16,765 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,825 yuan per ton and closed at 16,695 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan per ton from the afternoon close. Downstream consumption was weak, with only rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm of traders to buy was also low, resulting in continued weak spot trading [2] Inventory - On August 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 19, the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The 12 - month contract follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The 10 - month contract should be mainly short - allocated, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. The August contract has an uncertain delivery settlement price due to the continuous decline in freight rates [5][6][8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Week 36 price increased, while some other companies' prices remained stable or decreased. Maersk's PSS in the Far East - Nordic region dropped to $50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Middle - Eastern media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media stated that Israel received a new cease - fire proposal from Hamas [2]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports varies in different months. There are TBNs and empty sailings in September and October, and there were many additional ships in August. HPL announced two additional ships for October [3]. 2. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining, which brings uncertainty to the delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - **October Contract**: It is a quarterly contract, mainly short - allocated. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. After Maersk's Week 36 price dropped, attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit. HPL's additional ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [5][6]. - **December Contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, freight rates are usually high. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6]. 3. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of August 19, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,773 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 34,375 lots. Different contracts had different closing prices [7]. - **Spot Data**: On August 15, 2025, the SCFI for different routes was announced. On August 18, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2180.17 points [7]. - **Container Ship Delivery**: In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the October contract when the price is high [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to July, the general public budget revenue showed a nominal growth pressure, with the progress at 61.8%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years. The cumulative growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, mainly relying on the high growth of stamp duty and the recovery of value - added tax and enterprise income tax, but the sustainability of the improvement in the fiscal revenue structure needs further observation. Meanwhile, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year, maintaining low - inflation characteristics [3]. - The general public budget expenditure accelerated its expansion. The progress from January to July was 54.1%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years by 0.6 percentage points. The expansion was mainly reflected in areas such as debt interest payments, social security, and education expenditures. Although infrastructure - related expenditures declined, the overall broad - based fiscal expenditure remained in an expansion trend driven by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds [4]. - The government - funded budget revenue was in a contraction range, with the progress in the first half of 2025 at 37%, lower than the average of the past five years by 3.2 percentage points. From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. However, the decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed significantly compared with the same period last year. The expenditure progress in the first half of 2025 accelerated to 86.9%, much higher than the average of the past five years. From January to July, the national government - funded budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year - on - year, with the funds mainly invested in major project construction and the "two new" fields, providing strong support for the economy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value: - 0.3%). Tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: - 1.2%); non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% (previous value: 3.7%). Central revenue decreased by 2% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.8%), and local revenue increased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: 1.6%) [35]. - Main tax revenue items: domestic value - added tax was 4.2551 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3% (previous value: 2.8%); domestic consumption tax was 1.0213 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% (previous value: 1.7%); enterprise income tax was 3.0566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% (previous value: - 1.9%); personal income tax was 0.9279 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% (previous value: 8%); import VAT and consumption tax decreased by 6.1% year - on - year (previous value: - 6.1%), and customs duties decreased by 6.5% year - on - year (previous value: - 7.7%); export tax rebates increased by 9.7% year - on - year (previous value: 11.6%); urban maintenance and construction tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 2.7%); vehicle purchase tax decreased by 18.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 19.1%); stamp duty increased by 20.7% year - on - year (previous value: 19.7%), among which securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% year - on - year (previous value: 54.1%); resource tax decreased by 1.6% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.4%); among land and real - estate - related taxes, deed tax decreased by 15% year - on - year (previous value: - 14.8%), property tax increased by 11.2% year - on - year (previous value: 12%), urban land use tax increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.8%), land value - added tax decreased by 17.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 17.6%), and arable land occupation tax increased by 3.1% year - on - year (previous value: 2.4%); environmental protection tax increased by 12.5% year - on - year (previous value: 16.4%); other tax revenues increased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: 0.7%) [36][42][43]. General Public Budget Expenditure - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 16.0737 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (previous value: 3.4%). Central expenditure increased by 8.8% year - on - year (previous value: 9%), and local expenditure increased by 2.5% year - on - year (previous value: 2.6%) [46]. - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 2.4438 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% (previous value: 5.9%); science and technology expenditure was 0.533 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% (previous value: 9.1%); culture, tourism, sports, and media expenditure was 0.2012 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% (previous value: 5%); social security and employment expenditure was 2.7621 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% (previous value: 9.2%); health expenditure was 1.2402 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% (previous value: 4.3%); energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure was 0.2949 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% (previous value: 5.9%); urban and rural community expenditure decreased by 3.5% year - on - year (previous value: - 4.2%); agricultural, forestry, and water expenditure decreased by 7.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 7.8%); transportation expenditure decreased by 3.3% year - on - year (previous value: 3.1%); debt interest payment was 0.7573 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% (previous value: 6.1%) [47][55][56]. Government - Funded Budget Revenue - From January to July 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2.3124 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% (previous value: - 2.4%). Central revenue increased by 8.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), and local revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.2%). The state - owned land use right transfer revenue was 1.695 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% (previous value: - 6.5%) [57]. Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - From January to July 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 5.4287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% (previous value: 30%). Central expenditure increased by 4.5 times year - on - year (previous value: 6.2 times), and local expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year (previous value: 15.1%). The expenditure related to state - owned land use right transfer revenue was 2.3572 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1% (previous value: - 6.4%) [58][59].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. However, the recent marginal improvement in chemical - end demand and the increase in freight rates are providing some downside support. The spot price of domestic mainstream LPG is stable, with downstream purchasing on demand and sellers having no inventory concerns. Overseas supply is generally abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has slightly decreased but remains abundant. The combustion - end demand is weak due to high summer temperatures, while the chemical - end demand has marginally improved, with the PDH operating rate rising to around 78%, at a high level this year but with limited further upward momentum. In terms of trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect oscillations and focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels, while there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Analysis - On August 18, the domestic regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan/ton; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market 4350 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4530 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market 4378 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 572 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 549 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4491 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for propane and 4311 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was at 564 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 541 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4428 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) for propane and 4248 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillations, focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].