Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by capital sentiment, with slight rebounds in the futures markets. The industrial silicon market shows stable spot prices, while the polysilicon market also has stable spot prices and decreasing inventories [1][4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the visible inventory has also decreased, but the total inventory may still be in a pattern of accumulation. The polysilicon market has weak fundamentals, but there are expectations of industry self - discipline production cuts, and the price is easily affected by news when it is low [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 7380 yuan/ton and closed at 7485 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 293427 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on June 25, 2025 was 53570 lots, a decrease of 614 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10200 - 10600 yuan/ton. In May 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxane in China was 46600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 228900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1]. - **Strategy** - The warehouse receipts of industrial silicon are continuously decreasing, and the visible inventory has also decreased, but the total inventory may still be in a pattern of accumulation. The recent futures price is oscillating. During the meeting organized by the association in recent days, attention should be paid to various news. The trading strategy is mainly range operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 24, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures oscillated. It opened at 30615 yuan/ton and closed at 31085 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 72286 lots (78183 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 171969 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 26200 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4.70%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a month - on - month change of - 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500 tons, a month - on - month change of 2.94%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.90GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.53% [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4][6]. - **Strategy** - The futures price oscillated on that day, with a certain rebound during the session, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are weak, but there are expectations of industry self - discipline production cuts. The price is easily affected by news when it is low, and the futures price may oscillate widely. The trading strategy is range operation [7].

原油日报 | 2025-06-25 地缘溢价挤出，油价继续回落 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌4.14美元，收于每桶64.37美元，跌幅为6.04%；8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.34美元，收于每桶67.14美元，跌幅为6.07%。SC原油主力合约收跌9.27%，报502元/ 桶。 2、美国总统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。伊以停火协议是通过在卡塔尔和美国 的调解达成的。伊朗报复卡塔尔的美国空军基地后，伊朗通过卡塔尔向白宫发出信息，表示不会再发动任何袭击。 白宫也发出信息，强调不会对伊朗的袭击进行报复，并表示美国已准备好与伊朗恢复谈判。之后，美国和以色列、 卡塔尔和伊朗继续进行谈判，就停火条款和开始时间达成一致。但停火协议生效后双方均称对方仍违反协议发动 攻击，特朗普表示，不希望伊朗发生政权更替，政权更迭引发混乱。希望紧张局势能够缓和。伊朗和以色列违反 停火协议不会面临后果。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，最近因以色列和伊朗之间的冲突而导致的大宗商品价格波动不会改变欧元区的通 胀前景。金多斯24日说："如果 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2020, China's ethylene production capacity has been growing rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants, which will drive up the demand for upstream raw materials such as naphtha [2][8]. - Due to the limitations of the growth of domestic crude oil primary processing capacity and naphtha circulation volume, the growth of naphtha demand is expected to be supplemented by imports [3][9]. - Short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Preface - China's ethylene production capacity has been accelerating since 2020, with a five - year compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. In 2024, the ethylene production capacity was 55.42 million tons, almost doubling compared to 2019. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants. Naphtha cracking is the main process for ethylene production, accounting for 68% of the total ethylene production capacity by the end of 2024. The report aims to predict the growth of domestic naphtha demand by analyzing the existing ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally and the non - integrated ethylene plant construction plans from 2025 to 2027 [8]. 3.2 Existing Ethylene Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally and Fewer PX Plants - There are about 14 ethylene plants using naphtha steam cracking in China without atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, with a total capacity of 10.24 million tons. These plants mainly use externally purchased naphtha as feedstock, and some also use light hydrocarbons. If fully operational, they would need to purchase more than 30 million tons of naphtha externally each year [11]. - There are relatively few PX plants purchasing naphtha externally, such as Qingdao Lidan and Fujia Dahua. This is because reforming units require heavy naphtha with higher aromatic potential requirements, while the market - circulated naphtha is mostly light naphtha [15]. 3.3 Intensive Commissioning of Steam Cracking Plants from 2025 to 2027, Potentially Further Increasing Naphtha Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, 14 steam cracking plants with a total capacity of 17.4 million tons are planned to be commissioned. Among them, 4 plants with a total capacity of 4.9 million tons need to purchase naphtha externally, with a theoretical external purchase demand of over 10 million tons [16]. - From 2025 to 2027 (including Q4 2024), about 31.69 million tons of ethylene cracking projects will be commissioned, mainly in 2025 - 2026. Some projects need to purchase naphtha externally. After the concentrated commissioning in 2025, several plants such as Fujian Zhongsha Petrochemical and CNOOC Shell (Phase III) will need to purchase naphtha externally from 2026 to 2028 [17]. - The growth of reforming capacity in the next few years is relatively small. About over 10 million tons of capacity will be gradually released from the end of 2024 to 2027, mostly as supporting facilities for new or expanded large - scale refineries [17]. 3.4 Limited Growth of Domestic Primary Processing Capacity, Requiring Import Supplements - Although new and改扩建 projects of refineries are expected to add over 100 million tons of atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, the actual growth of primary processing capacity is expected to be much lower, which may limit the increase in naphtha supply from atmospheric and vacuum distillation [23]. - According to relevant policies, by the end of 2025, the national crude oil primary processing capacity should be controlled within 1 billion tons. The elimination of old capacities may accompany the commissioning of new atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacities, restricting the increase in naphtha supply [23]. - The naphtha of domestic major refineries is mostly for self - use, with limited incremental tradable resources. The supply of naphtha from Shandong local refineries is expected to shrink, and the domestic supply gap of naphtha has been widening since 2022. The import volume is expected to further increase in 2025 [26]. - Globally, the supply of naphtha mainly comes from the Middle East, Russia, and the United States. From 2025 to 2027, the growth of naphtha supply may be relatively limited due to factors such as geopolitics and international sanctions [27]. 3.5 Early - Commissioned Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally May Become Marginal Plants - If naphtha resources become scarce in the future, short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [32]. - Among the existing ethylene/PX plants purchasing naphtha externally in China, there are 3.89 million tons of ethylene plants and 1.7 million tons of PX plants commissioned before 2010. There are also many short - and medium - process plants in Japan and South Korea, and their profits may be more affected by naphtha price fluctuations [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No clear core viewpoint was found in the provided content. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On June 23, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.3494 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.0098 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.5303 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.0629 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1.106 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 0.0259 million contracts; CSI 300 index options was 0.0574 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 0.1418 million contracts [1][19] Option PCR - SSE 50 ETF options' trading - volume PCR was 1.01, with a +0.03 change compared to the previous period; position - volume PCR was 0.99, with a +0.07 change [2][29] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai)' trading - volume PCR was 1.06, with a - 0.09 change; position - volume PCR was 0.84, with a +0.00 change [2][29] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai)' trading - volume PCR was 1.24, with a - 0.15 change; position - volume PCR was 1.02, with a +0.02 change [2][29] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options' trading - volume PCR was 1.54, with a +0.33 change; position - volume PCR was 0.96, with a - 0.02 change [2][29] - ChiNext ETF options' trading - volume PCR was 1.18, with a - 0.05 change; position - volume PCR was 0.81, with a +0.03 change [2][29] - SSE 50 index options' trading - volume PCR was 0.78, with a +0.13 change; position - volume PCR was 0.71, with a +0.01 change [2][29] - CSI 300 index options' trading - volume PCR was 0.97, with a - 0.01 change; position - volume PCR was 0.64, with a +0.00 change [2][29] - CSI 1000 index options' trading - volume PCR was 1.08, with a - 0.07 change; position - volume PCR was 0.87, with a +0.04 change [2][29] Option VIX - SSE 50 ETF options' VIX was 13.38%, with a - 0.12% change compared to the previous period [3][44] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai)' VIX was 13.18%, with a - 0.95% change [3][44] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai)' VIX was 18.50%, with a - 0.72% change [3][44] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options' VIX was 16.20%, with a - 0.57% change [3][44] - ChiNext ETF options' VIX was 20.21%, with a - 1.10% change [3][44] - SSE 50 index options' VIX was 14.59%, with a - 0.30% change [3][44] - CSI 300 index options' VIX was 14.83%, with a - 0.91% change [3][44] - CSI 1000 index options' VIX was 20.17%, with a - 0.81% change [3][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-24 山东现货继续走低，烧碱基差收敛 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4896元/吨（-7）；华东基差-116元/吨（-3）;华南基差-26元/吨（-3）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+0）；电石利润130元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-494元/吨（+18）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-640元/吨（-80）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（-2.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.2万吨（+0.5）；PVC社会库存35.5万吨（+0.0）；PVC电石法开工率79.62%（-0.83%）； PVC乙烯法开工率69.23%（+1.87%）；PVC开工率76.74%（-0.09%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量64.8万吨（+1.0）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2272元/吨（+16）；山东32%液碱基差166元/吨（-110）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（-30）；山东50 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-24 铝锭社会库存小幅增加 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20650元/吨，较上一交易日下跌70元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至150元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20470元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至-20元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20530元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至45元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-23日沪铝主力合约开于20425元/吨，收于20365元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌50元/ 吨，跌幅-0.24%，最高价达20580元/吨，最低价达到20340元/吨。全天交易日成交181056手，较上一交易日增 加87843手，全天交易日持仓253597手，较上一交易日增加89586手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-23，LME铝库存340975 吨，较前一交易日减少1875吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-23 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3130元/吨，山东价格录得3140 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-24 策略 单边：短期偏多，关注中东地缘冲突进一步演变，如果冲突缓和价格可能回落。 跨期：无 跨品种：无 伊朗EG装置将陆续重启，关注地缘变化 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4501元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 4570元/吨（较前一交易日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.22%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）78元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 上周末，美国袭击伊朗核设施，伊朗议会得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最最终的决定权在伊朗最高国 家委员会手中，当前中东地缘变化依然扑朔迷离。据隆众资讯6月23日报道，伊朗一套55万吨装置日前准备升温重 启，此前该装置于6月中旬停车检修，据悉伊朗境内其他乙二醇装置近期也将陆续重启。关注地缘进一步演变。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-42美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为260元/吨（环比-15 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.2万吨（环比+0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华 ...

不锈钢创新低，现货成交转淡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-23日沪镍主力合约2507开于118190元/吨，收于117440元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.13%，当日成交量 为117071手，持仓量为68780手。 沪镍主力合约周五夜盘跳空低开快速走高后横盘振荡，周一日盘开盘后小幅振荡后快速跌破前期平台，午后收盘 前小幅反弹，收大阴线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。波罗的海原油运价指数 一周张超13%，以伊冲突高风险航线运费涨超2倍。国务院总理李强将于6月24日至25日出席在天津举行的第十六届 夏季达沃斯论坛。菲律宾，矿山报价维持坚挺。受降雨天气影响，装船出货效率不高。镍铁成交创新低910元/镍（舱 底含税）成交上万吨，交期7月份，铁厂利润再度受挫，印尼镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减产 得以缓解。6月（二期）内贸基准价下跌0.3-0.5美元左右；当前内贸升水维持26-28。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报 价较上个交易日下调约1075元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调，日内镍价跌破前期平台，下游企业按需采 购，精炼镍贸易商出货意愿较高，现货成交整体尚可。其中金川镍 ...