Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Holders of previous short positions can take appropriate profit, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. There are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is facing pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and potential for further growth. Saudi CP official prices are continuously decreasing, and high arrival volumes and port inventories in China are suppressing the domestic market. Downstream chemical profits are shrinking, limiting the growth of chemical terminal demand, and the improvement in combustion terminal consumption after the off - season is weak. There is a lack of positive factors in the market. Although price drops may lead to profit repair and increased buying, the threat of US tariffs adds new uncertainties, so short - term caution is recommended [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On October 13, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3960 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; East China market, 4240 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4670 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of November 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 532 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 512 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4159 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 4002 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 527 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 507 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4120 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 3963 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Recently, the LPG futures market has been weak, and the basis has strengthened. Spot prices in various regions mainly declined yesterday. In the East China civil gas market, the mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with sufficient supply and average market sentiment [1] Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - after carbon four in multiple regions, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing progress is good, with some producing areas setting new records. There are strong expectations of a bumper harvest in North America, and the global soybean supply is sufficient. Palm oil production remains at a relatively high level. Although the biodiesel policy may provide some support for prices, the market is currently a mix of long and short factors, resulting in a volatile market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan or 0.41%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan or 0.39% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 + -144 yuan, a decrease of 146 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.06%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 162 yuan, a decrease of 56 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 298 yuan, an increase of 29 yuan [1] Market Information Aggregation - Brazilian Crop Sowing: As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 14%, making it the third - fastest sowing progress in the same period. The current sowing progress is higher than 9% a week ago and 8% in the same period last year. The sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - crop corn has reached 45% of the planned planting area in the central - southern region, higher than 41% in the same period last year [2] - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons or 1.31% from the previous week. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous week [2] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From October 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.02% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11%, and the output increased by 6.59% [2] - Import Prices: There were various price adjustments for imported agricultural products, including decreases in the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, American and Brazilian soybeans, and some adjustments in the C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance. The Fed official's dovish signal on interest rate cuts and the global risk asset pullback due to tariff issues have strengthened the safe-haven property of gold. Silver also benefits from the same macro - factors and spot shortages [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year and believes that monetary policy should ignore the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases. Economists have raised the US economic growth forecast for this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. The expected inflation - adjusted US GDP growth this year is 1.8%, up from 1.3% in June [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 904.88 yuan/gram, closed at 927.56 yuan/gram, a 2.88% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 936.72 yuan/gram, up 0.99% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,189.00 yuan/kg, closed at 11,531.00 yuan/kg, a 4.05% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,879,157 lots, and the open interest was 495,579 lots. The night - session closed at 11,710 yuan/kg, up 1.55% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, up 0.38 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.531%, up 0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 5 lots, and the short position changed by 254 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 618,953 lots, a 100.67% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,823,544 lots, a 161.01% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,017.16 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,754 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 23.21 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,081.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.44, a - 0.62% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 78.76, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 63,730 kg, a 38.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,573,640 kg, a 20.02% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,492 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 144,840 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 925 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram. - Silver: The Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,500 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The tariff issue has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum, and there are still many favorable factors overseas. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff issue in the short term [6]. - The alumina market at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 13, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was -50 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by -10 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by -5 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,040 yuan/ton, closed at 20,885 yuan/ton, a change of -205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,050 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 20,730 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 191,737 lots, and the position was 170,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the SMM statistics showed that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 63,151 tons, a change of 4,032 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 506,000 tons, a change of -2,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,120 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,856 yuan/ton, closed at 2,820 yuan/ton, a change of -57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of -1.98%, a maximum price of 2,856 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 288,895 lots, and the position was 351,910 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in-plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum. The overseas macro favorable factors still exist, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - **Alumina**: The spot markets at home and abroad have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is neutral, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Shanghai aluminum positive spread [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the propylene industry is "shockingly weak" for single - side trading, "PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies" for inter - period trading, and "none" for cross - variety trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene continues to increase despite more maintenance due to the resumption of production at some major plants in Shandong before the festival, and upstream companies are selling at reduced prices, causing propylene prices to decline. The demand from downstream industries is still poor due to cost pressure, and the cost - side support for propylene is weakening. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions on the supply of propane [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price of propylene [1][6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [14][22][24][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes data on the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It provides data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [1][39][41][44][52][55][57][59] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report presents data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [64]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unspecified Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Demand improvement is limited, and the average spot price continues to decline [1] - Although some northern regions' weather cleared up and road projects resumed construction, the overall demand for asphalt increased minimally, and the market has a weak outlook on future demand. The low - level oscillation of asphalt futures also negatively affects the spot market sentiment. Considering the increased macro - risks, the volatility of the crude oil end may significantly increase, disturbing the asphalt market. Short - term caution is advised [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 13, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3302 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton or 1.32% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 103,287 lots, a decrease of 4,913 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 109,080 lots, a decrease of 44,528 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3706 - 4086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3400 - 3720 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3430 - 3490 yuan/ton in South China, and 3510 - 3600 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in the Northeast, North China, and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-14 现货价格小幅上调，多晶硅期货盘面下方仍有支撑 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-13，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8595元/吨，最后收于8805元/吨，较前一日结算变化（80） 元/吨，变化（0.92）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓165722手，2025-10-13仓单总数为50854手，较前一日变化 573手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计10月9日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.5万吨，较国庆节前增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较 节前环比持平，社会交割仓库42.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较节前增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11100-11500（250）元/吨。有机硅DMC市场上行，报价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the tariff black - swan market, the risk appetite declined, impacting the bond market. The continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increasing global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no change; Manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a 0.40% (0.81%) increase [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US Dollar Index was 99.24, up 0.40 (0.40%); USD/CNH (off - shore) was 7.1370, down 0.005 (- 0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.45, up 0.04 (3.14%); DR007 was 1.45, up 0.06 (3.94%); R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 (1.49%); AAA - rated 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.59, up 0.01 (0.82%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (0.82%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than referring to relevant figures (such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc.) is provided. The data sources for these figures are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [11][13][15]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The section mainly shows relevant figures including Shibor rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24]. IV. Spread Overview The section presents figures about the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][38][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section contains figures like the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][50][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section shows figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section presents figures such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][62][66]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended for the 2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by auction - related supply - demand adjustments, with new - season soybeans in the Northeast increasing in supply, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short term. The peanut market is influenced by supply factors, with supply differentiation in different regions and cautious market purchasing behavior [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soy - one 2511 contract yesterday was 3961.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot was A11 + 79, down 188 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] - Market Information: New - season soybeans in the Northeast market are increasing in volume, with price polarization. The price of low - protein common soybeans is 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein soybeans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein soybeans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of many regions in Heilongjiang have declined [2] - Market Trend: The soy - one futures rose and then fell yesterday. Cofco plans to auction 43,000 tons of domestic soybeans on October 14. The supply of new - season soybeans in the Northeast is increasing, and potential supply pressure may suppress prices [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7902.00 yuan/ton, up 116.00 yuan/ton or 1.49% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8370.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36% month - on - month. The basis was PK11 + 298.00, down 316.00 or 51.47% month - on - month. The national average price of general peanuts was 4.17 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. Oil mills' procurement was cautious [4] - Market Trend: Peanut futures fluctuated strongly yesterday. There is supply differentiation in different peanut - producing areas. Most large oil mills have no plans to start purchasing or operating, and the purchasing behavior of food factories and wholesale markets is also cautious [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-14 美联储官员再发鸽派言论 铜价震荡走强 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 矿端方面，外电10月10日消息，安托法加斯塔集团（Antofagasta）已启动其铜矿增长战略的关键阶段 —— 在该国 北部Centinela铜矿的Encuentro硫化矿采矿坑进行了首次爆破作业。此次爆破标志着初期剥离作业的正式开始，该 作业将为Centinela铜矿的第二选矿厂供应更高品位的硫化矿矿石。依托此次扩建，公司计划在中期内将铜矿产量提 升30%，充分挖掘Centinela铜矿26亿吨矿石储量的价值。Encuentro硫化矿项目于2025年7月获批，预计投资10亿美 元，其剥离阶段预计将于2028年完成。此外，外电10月12日消息，智利Codelco旗下El Teniente矿在7月底发生致命 岩石崩塌事故后，尽管已恢复部分运营，但产量可能在未来数月仍远低于满负荷水平，预计影响将持续至2026年。 知情人士透露，该矿区当时刚开始投入生产的新区域计划在未来几年逐步增加产量，事故导致该区域无法使用， 从而严重影响Codelco整体生产恢复。生产损失预计今年将达到4.8万吨，高于此前预测 ...