1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, increasing market uncertainty. The new - year production increase expectation suppresses the market, and downstream demand is weak, so short - term cotton prices may continue to decline [3]. - Sugar: Typhoons in China have affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, which may support sugar prices. However, the Sino - US trade friction has intensified, and short - term market fluctuations may increase [7]. - Pulp: The tariff war has a negative impact on the macro - level. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,642 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1]. - Exports: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.308 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the total exports were 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2]. - Domestic: Cotton inventory reduction is fast, but the pre - holiday cotton purchase by ginneries was cautious. The new cotton harvest has accelerated, and the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term cotton price has a risk of further decline due to the trade war and production increase expectation [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Exports: India's 2024/25 sugar exports from February to September 2025 totaled 775,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased year - on - year, suppressing the raw sugar price. The raw sugar price has limited downward space due to ethanol price support [5]. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales in the peak season were poor, and imports in August hit a new high. Typhoons have affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [6]. Strategy - The sugar price may be supported by the typhoon - affected production, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify due to trade friction [7]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 4842 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+1.13%) from the previous day [8]. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of pulp in Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some falling [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have plans to increase prices, reduce production, and transfer production, but the actual impact on supply is limited. Domestic port inventory remains high [9]. - Demand: Global pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale raw material purchases [9]. Strategy - The pulp price may continue to oscillate at the bottom due to the tariff war and weak fundamentals [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, after the reduction of rainfall in major production areas at home and abroad, the output is gradually increasing, and the domestic raw material prices are falling. The raw material prices in Thailand remain relatively firm. The overall supply - demand in China is gradually turning to a looser pattern, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and the downside space is expected to be limited [6]. - For BR, there are still maintenance plans for domestic BR plants in October, and the supply side still has support. The demand for raw materials will slow down this week, but the rigid demand remains due to the rising operating rate of tire factories. The overall operating rate of BR this year is still at a high level, and the supply is abundant. The supply - demand of BR is expected to be strong in both aspects, and the current high inventory may follow the price of upstream butadiene to decline slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 310 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,920 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, a change of - 35 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 10,950 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%; the cumulative imports from January to September were 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the exports reached 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]. - From January to August, the exports of automobile tires were 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3]. - According to QinRex's latest data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with the same period in 2024. Looking at the data for August alone, the exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 640 yuan/ton (+ 125), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 490 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,256 yuan/ton (- 121.88), the NR basis was 954.00 yuan/ton (+ 160.00); the whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (- 250), the mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 300), the 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 250). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (- 300) [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.95 Thai baht/kg (- 1.16), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.95 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.15 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75) [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (- 13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (- 17.50%) [5]. - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (- 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (- 705) [5]. BR - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 13, 2025, the BR basis was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (- 200), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 10,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of Shandong private - owned BR was 10,700 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 2,064 yuan/ton (- 131) [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 74.69% (+ 4.15%) [5]. - **Inventories**: The inventory of BR traders was 5,700 tons (+ 0), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 0) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand in China is turning to a looser pattern, but the low valuation limits the downside space [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply side has support, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong in both aspects, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the butadiene price [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The domestic supply pressure remains as the domestic smelting profit narrows but does not affect the smelting seasonality. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally, strengthening the linkage between the Shanghai zinc price and overseas macro factors. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to tariff trade wars, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $100.45 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 101,699 lots. The highest price was 22,450 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,100 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a change of - 475 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory has fallen below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium continues to strengthen. Although tariff trade wars cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差38元/吨（+32）。纯苯港口库存9.00万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨（+4 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费116美元/吨（+3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差72.5美元/吨（-4.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货 -M2价差70元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1920元/吨（-65），酚酮生产利润-618元/吨（-312），苯胺生产利润478元/吨（+140）， 己二酸生产利润-1373元/吨（-50）。己内酰胺开工率96.00%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-1.00%），苯胺开工率 77.16%（+1.12%），己二酸开工率66.90%（+4.00%）。 纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-14 苯乙烯港口库存压力持续 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差15元/吨（-17元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-499元/吨（-15元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存196500吨（-5400吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存121500吨（+5100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.6%（+2 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-14 现货成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-13，尿素主力收盘1610元/吨（+13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1520 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-80 元/吨（-33）；河南基差：-90元/吨（-33）；江苏基差：-80元/吨（-43）；尿素生产利润0元/吨（-10），出口利润982 元/吨（+11）。 供应端：截至2025-10-13，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-13，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交情绪较好，部分厂家小幅上调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥 进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多，今年冬小麦用肥需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The macro - risk is temporarily controllable, and the polyester industry chain rebounds after a decline. The US - China tariff war affects the market, causing crude oil to fall and then rebound. The PTA futures are affected by the crude oil price movement [2][3]. - The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain varies. PX's fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook weakens; PTA has short - term improved fundamentals but long - term inventory accumulation pressure; PF has a short - term good supply - demand situation; and PR faces supply - demand pressure with new device production [3][4][5]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on a unilateral basis, go long on PF processing fees at low prices in cross - variety trading, and conduct reverse arbitrage on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 in cross - period trading [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [11][12][14]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Illustrate the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipts of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, various factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][59]. PF Detailed Data - Provide information on PF's 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and related indicators of regenerated cotton - type short - fibers, pure polyester yarns, and polyester - cotton yarns [70][72][80]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][98].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, and stainless steel prices are expected to continue weak operation [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 149,002 (-10,068) lots, and the open interest was 74,700 (-3,140) lots. Influenced by the US president's remarks, there are concerns about the escalation of Sino - US tariff friction, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened low and moved low, and the LME inventory has reached the highest level since October 17, 2022 [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and prices are stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF44 without a deal. In the Philippines, the tender result of 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen Mine in Zambales is pending. The price of downstream nickel - iron has declined, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories are preparing for "winter storage". In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply is loose, with the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium at +26 [1] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is fair, and the premium and discount of refined nickel are slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 25,272 (44) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 242,094 (4,716) tons [2] Group 4: Strategy of Nickel - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 5: Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,989 (+134,394) lots, and the open interest was 176,416 (-4,171) lots. Similar to Shanghai nickel, affected by the US president's remarks, the overall trend of metal futures is weak, and stainless steel also opened low and moved low [3] Spot - Due to the sharp decline in the futures market and weak demand, market confidence is severely hit, and spot trading is light. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 13,150 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,100 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 480 - 780 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 951.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Strategy of Stainless Steel - It is recommended to take a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month contract of container shipping index futures for European routes is expected to be volatile and bullish. The trading of the 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm, including the expectation and actual implementation of price increases. The shipping companies will adjust supply to maintain high freight rates for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfer to the European line may put pressure on European line prices [7][10]. - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clear. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collecting prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October [6]. - The 2026 annual contract may face valuation pressure due to potential resumption of shipping. Continuous tracking of the Palestine - Israel negotiation and the resumption of the Suez Canal is needed [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price increase plans for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 43 quote is 1095/1830; HPL's 10 - month second - half price is 1185/1935, and it plans to raise the price to 1200/2000 after October 15. Maersk plans to raise the price to 1625/2500 after November 3 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: The Houthi armed forces in Yemen said they would stop attacking Israeli and related ships in the Red Sea if Israel abides by the Gaza cease - fire agreement. But they will monitor Israel's compliance, and more intense attacks will be launched if Israel resumes military operations [3]. 2. Dynamic Supply - **China - European Base Port Capacity**: In October, the average weekly capacity for the remaining three weeks is 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 302,800 TEU, and in December, it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 7 TBNs in December [4]. 3. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The current freight rate center in the first half of October is about 1400 US dollars/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October, with shipping companies trying to raise the price to 1800 - 2200 US dollars/FEU [6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The 12 - month contract will first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [7]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [10]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the US soybean and domestic bean meal markets is mainly fluctuating due to the lack of data updates caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, and attention should be paid to policy changes. For corn, the overall production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the new - season corn is listed. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September 2025, imports were 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2] - **Sowing Progress**: As of October 10, Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area for 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% at the same time last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The US soybean and domestic bean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly fluctuating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.55%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - **Production Forecast**: The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina's corn production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than the previous year's 50 million tons. As of October 8, the corn sowing progress in Argentina was 25.6%, 7.9% faster than the same period last year [5] - **Export Data**: As of October 10, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 7.19 million tons, lower than 11.739 million tons in the same period last year [5] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, the new - season corn in some northeastern regions has started to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the concentrated listing. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

General Overview - The report focuses on the market analysis and strategies of glass, soda ash, and ferrosilicon alloys (silicomanganese and ferrosilicon) in the black building materials sector [1][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report Core Views - The glass market is characterized by weak downstream demand, ample supply, and high inventory reduction pressure, with prices at a low level and potential short - selling opportunities at high levels [1] - The soda ash market has persistent supply - demand contradictions, increasing supply pressure, and relatively stable demand, with significant inventory reduction pressure [1] - The silicomanganese market shows increased enterprise losses, reduced production and operating rates, while downstream demand maintains resilience, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector [3] - The ferrosilicon market has weak production expansion motivation due to compressed steel mill profits, and its supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with prices also expected to follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday, and downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. The market has a situation of ample supply, weak demand, and high inventory reduction pressure. Prices are at a low level, and external macro - disturbances may cause price rebounds. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels and subsequent changes in production lines [1] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market opened lower and fluctuated weakly yesterday, and downstream procurement was mainly for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions persist, supply pressure continues to increase, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Attention should be paid to supply changes and downstream demand [1] Ferrosilicon Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures main contract closed at 5746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Steel mills are eager to lower prices, and factory production is in a loss state. Enterprises' losses have increased, production and operating rates have declined, while downstream demand maintains resilience. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector. Attention should be paid to changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures showed a weak - oscillating trend, and the main contract closed at 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market sentiment has deteriorated, and the trading atmosphere needs to be improved. With the continuous compression of steel mill profits, the motivation for production expansion is insufficient, while downstream demand maintains resilience. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies [3] Strategies - **Glass**: The strategy is to expect a weak - oscillating trend [2] - **Soda Ash**: The strategy is to expect an oscillating trend [2] - **Silicomanganese**: The strategy is to expect an oscillating trend [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The strategy is to expect an oscillating trend [4] - **Cross - period and Cross - variety**: No cross - period or cross - variety strategies were provided [2]