Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral, with attention on the cost-side crude oil and macro sentiment changes [3] Core Viewpoints - The marginal demand has improved, and attention should be paid to cost-side changes. The most pessimistic period on the demand side has passed, but the market is still affected by factors such as supplier actions and inventory [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Include TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Cover PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Involve toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [24][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - Include the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament and short fiber production and sales, polyester load, and various factory inventory days and operating rates in the downstream [47][49][51] VII. PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, inventory days, profit, and related operating rates and spreads [73][79][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various spreads [86][88][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping rate center is continuously declining, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of September [1][5]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the shipping rate, and the continuous downward revision of the shipping rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the shipping rate. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - The main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of August 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,292.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,185.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1537.90, 1331.00, 1494.90, 2088.20, 1373.10, and 1789.70 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1820.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1759.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2719.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2180.17 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1106.29 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, there were many additional ships. Maersk added two additional ships in WEEK32 and WEEK35, and the OA alliance also added two additional ships. HPL announced two additional ships for October. The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in August was 283,100 TEU, in September it was 315,800 TEU, and in October it was 281,300 TEU. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in September (both blank sailings were from the PA alliance), and 10 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in October [3]. - As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 768,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is information about the global container ship capacity congestion ratio, congestion capacity, ship speeds of different sizes, and the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal, but no specific data is summarized in the text [56][60][71]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is information about port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, China's export volume to the EU, and Asia - North America and Asia - Europe trade volumes, but no specific data is summarized in the text [75][76][80].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On Hold [9] 2. Core Views - Due to the resilience of inflation and the employment market shown in the latest US macro data, there are significant differences in the market's short-term expectations for the future interest rate cut rhythm. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is crucial, but it's difficult for Fed Chair Powell to provide clear guidance on the future interest rate path [1][8]. - Global tariff risks have not been fully cleared. India plans a tax reform to boost the economy and cope with tariff shocks, and Germany demands the US to lower tariffs on European cars [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver prices are also expected to be volatile, and the convergence logic of the gold-silver ratio provides some impetus. The Ag2508 contract may fluctuate between 9150 yuan/kilogram and 9550 yuan/kilogram [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.92 yuan/gram, closed at 777.66 yuan/gram, a 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 775.04 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9176.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9258.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 298,755 lots, and the open interest was 350,742 lots. The night session closed at 9225 yuan/kilogram, a 0.36% decline from the afternoon close [2]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a +1BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, a -1BP change from the previous trading day [3]. 3.3 SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,262 lots, a 10.58% change from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 460,303 lots, a 21.19% change from the previous trading day [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 965.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15356.61 tons, an increase of 285.30 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.5 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -5.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -749.80 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.00, a 0.52% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.64, a 1.19% change from the previous trading day [6]. 3.6 Fundamental Data - On August 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,224 kilograms, a 4.26% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 272,182 kilograms, a -2.75% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,350 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,610 kilograms [7].

Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 62 cents, closing at $63.42 per barrel, a gain of 0.99%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose 75 cents, closing at $66.60 per barrel, a gain of 1.14%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed up 0.70% at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - After the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, Trump said there was no plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil. He might consider the issue in two or three weeks [1] - Trump interrupted his meeting with European leaders and called Putin to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with the location to be determined [1] - Ukraine will promise to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding and reach a $50 billion agreement with US to co - produce drones with Ukrainian companies [1] - After Ukraine attacked a pipeline transformer station, Russia's oil supply to Hungary was interrupted [1] - Multiple Palestinian factions, including Hamas, agreed to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar in the Gaza Strip [1] Investment Logic - Although the US - Russia talks have advanced the negotiation, the secondary sanctions on India for Russian oil have not been clearly cancelled. India will impose additional secondary tariffs on August 27, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation and India's decision need continuous attention [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The port basis of methanol continues to consolidate weakly, and the ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate remains high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of Petronas in non - Iranian regions, increasing the pressure of arrivals in China. The maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down the demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in the inland to bottom out and rise. The formaldehyde downstream is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for further bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report shows figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of methanol spot in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spread between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit It presents figures on methanol production profit (such as Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and spreads between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [25][33]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory The data includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][37]. IV. Regional Spreads The report shows figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and spreads between other regions [39][45][48]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits It presents figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - term: Wait and see [3] - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 665 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton). - Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 2080 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), with a basis of 284 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). - Shandong Linyi is 2345 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton), with a basis of 149 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton), with a basis of 14 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 164 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1]. Port - Taicang methanol is 2302 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), CFR China is 262 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is 17 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2425 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2300 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 96 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 548,000 tons (+50,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 139,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 213,000 tons (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2]. Regional Spreads - The spread between northern Shandong and northwest (-280) is - 45 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550) is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and southern Shandong (-250) is - 293 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang (-100) is - 57 yuan/ton (+14 yuan/ton); the spread between Guangdong and East China (-180) is - 182 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing (-200) is - 133 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.3% at 2,713 yuan/ton, and the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.93% at 3,480 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, with a bearish cost-side guidance, and the FU and LU contract trends are also weak. The medium-term oil market balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil shows signs of stabilization, with a slight rebound in the outer market's monthly spread and crack spread, while the domestic market is weak but without prominent contradictions. Currently, the spot supply of high-sulfur oil remains relatively abundant, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. Except for the peak-season effect of power plants, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and the upward driving force of the market is still limited. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently in the future, attracting a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. The current event worthy of attention is the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. There have been signs of a rebound in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the tripartite talks go smoothly, and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply has room for further growth [2]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Although domestic production has remained at a low level, overseas supply has rebounded. From a medium-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Cross-variety: No strategy [3]. - Cross-period: No strategy [3]. - Spot-futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report The current processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance. However, with relatively stable grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use buy - in - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Trump meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put downward pressure on LME copper prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On August 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,060 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a - 0.14% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. Spot Situation The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a supply - demand game. Shanghai's spot quotes had a premium of 170 - 280 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract, with an average premium of 225 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 79,160 - 79,400 yuan/ton. The import window opening brought a profit margin of 200 yuan/ton. Weekend arrivals increased Shanghai's inventory, and imported supplies were sufficient, but domestic copper circulation was still tight, supporting a strong spot premium. It is expected that today's spot premium may decline under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro: The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held on Friday, and Fed Chairman Powell will speak. Due to the resilience of US inflation and the employment market, there are large differences in short - term market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will have difficulty giving clear guidance on the future interest - rate path [3]. - Tariffs: Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods. India's Prime Minister Modi plans to reform the goods and services tax, simplifying four tax brackets to two. The German government said the US must reduce tariffs on European - made cars before finalizing a broader trade agreement [3]. - Mine: Marimaca Copper's new drilling in the Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile expanded the ore body. Codelco requested to restart operations at the El Teniente copper mine's Andes Norte and Diamante mines, and some mines have resumed operations [4]. - Smelting and Import: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 190,796 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to July was 934,046 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase. Imports in July were 480,000 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase; the cumulative import from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Consumption: Last week, the domestic refined copper rod industry's operating rate rose to 70.61%, a 1.75 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but a 10.31 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. It is expected to rise to 71.79% next week. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate fell to 69.3%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and is expected to further drop to 67.6% next week [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 155,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 938 tons to 25,498 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 133,700 tons, an increase of 8,100 tons from the previous week [6][7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to use buy - in - hedging on dips in the range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton, but pay attention to the Putin - Trump meeting [8]. - Arbitrage: On hold [8]. - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Downstream demand support for propylene is limited, and propylene continues to fluctuate weakly. Shandong Zhenhua's main PDH unit and Xintai unit are under maintenance, briefly supporting a slight increase in Shandong spot prices. However, Wanhua's PO maintenance increases propylene supply in Yantai, and downstream resistance to high prices weakens the positive impact of maintenance, causing prices to fall from highs. In the future, Tianhong and Xintai's PDH units are expected to restart, and the new capacity of Jingbo's 280,000 - ton/year K - COT unit will be released, resulting in a relatively loose supply. Downstream start - up shows a mixed trend, with overall changes being small. Short - term demand support is limited, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand as the peak season approaches. The continuous weakening of crude oil on the cost side provides negative cost support [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [17][22][31] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures are about PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization [42][44][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] Core Viewpoints - The price center of ethylene glycol (EG) showed a weak consolidation, with the basis moderately strengthening. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$50/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port showed a mixed trend. The overall supply and demand in August - September are both in an increasing trend, with a slight inventory build-up in the balance sheet, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. [1][2] - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. [2] - The supply and demand of EG are both on the rise, with little fundamental contradiction. Under low inventory conditions, attention should be paid to cost changes. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,346 yuan/ton (a change of -23 yuan/ton, or -0.53% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,439 yuan/ton (a change of -19 yuan/ton, or -0.43% compared to the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$50/ton (a month - on - month increase of $0/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton). The syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences are provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 53.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main port last week were 14.1 tons, with a slight inventory build - up at the port. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 5.4 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary port are 4.3 tons. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - Wait and see; Inter - commodity - None [5] - Caustic soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bullish; Inter - period - Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices; Inter - commodity - None [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the caustic soda market has improved, while the PVC market continues to be weak. The supply of PVC is under pressure, and the demand is sluggish, with a weak supply - demand situation. The caustic soda market has good demand and reduced inventory pressure, but attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and production capacity release [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5054 yuan/ton (+100), the East China basis was - 274 yuan/ton (-120), and the South China basis was - 194 yuan/ton (-130) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit was - 39 yuan/ton (-25), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 231 yuan/ton (+21), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 540 yuan/ton (-51), and the PVC export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (+2.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 32.7 tons (-1.0), the social PVC inventory was 49.3 tons (+1.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 79.21% (+1.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 77.92% (+0.37%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.1 tons (-4.1) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2567 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 58 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong was 1634 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 613.78 yuan/ton (+67.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1427.74 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 43.78 tons (-2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.33 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.10% (-1.00%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 85.64% (-0.09%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.46% (+2.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 86.04% (+1.07%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: After the previous maintenance, production resumed, and the overall operation rate was at a high level supported by chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the gradual mass production of new production capacity, the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remained at a low level, and enterprises maintained rigid procurement. The export orders decreased month - on - month. India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with a general increase of 46 - 52 US dollars/ton in the Chinese mainland compared with the previous level. There is expected to be a rush to export in September, and the export is expected to weaken after September [3] - Inventory: The social PVC inventory continued to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value was high. The warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the pressure of the 09 contract warehouse receipts was large. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream operation rate remained at a high level, and the operation rate in Shandong was also high. However, some local enterprises had device load reduction situations, and combined with the planned maintenance of Wanhua in Yantai, the operation rate may decline slightly in the later period. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [4] - Demand side: The profit of alumina was good, and the operation rate was stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream alumina plants was lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers raised the purchase price, causing the spot price to continue to rise. The non - aluminum operation rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the procurement was acceptable. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda was restricted, and downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, improving the market sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong were acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreased [4] - Future attention points: Attention should still be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production capacity release rhythm of alumina in Guangxi. The subsidy for liquid chlorine increased, and the cost support still exists. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [6]