Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to be tight due to the reverse invoicing policy. The demand outlook is not optimistic, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, macro factors are variable, which may highlight the precious metal attribute of copper. Therefore, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,480 yuan/ton and closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, a 0.38% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,450 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot trading sentiment of Shanghai copper was weak. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper dropped to 60 - 80 yuan/ton, and that of good copper to 100 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was at a discount of 70 - 40 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of shipping and collecting payments, the spot premium is expected to decline further [2]. - **Important Information Summary** - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump announced that Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement. Iran will start the cease - fire first, and Israel will follow 12 hours later. The war will end officially after 24 hours, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices. In China, as of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura to fund the expansion of its Eloise copper processing plant. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon to provide integrated logistics solutions for its copper business in South Australia, which is expected to replace about 13 million kilometers of truck transportation annually [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jintian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo this year, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. From January to May, the value of copper imports from Africa in Ningbo reached 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8%. In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53% [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 73.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.04 percentage points [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,125 tons to 95,875 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 8,354 tons to 25,528 tons. On June 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.296 million tons, a decrease of 163,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-24 新装置顺利投产，供应端压力渐增 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7444元/吨（+29），PP主力合约收盘价为7262元/吨（+20），LL华北现货为7440 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7500元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为7260元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-4元/吨（-69），LL 华东基差为56元/吨（+21）， PP华东基差为-2元/吨（-50）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-264.8元/吨（+121.8），PP油制生产利润为-664.8元/吨（+121.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-192.8元/吨（-47.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为26.6元/吨（-20.1），PP进口利润为-306.4元/吨（+9.9），PP出口利润为-4.7美元/吨（-1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%）， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are weak, with a possible decline in the consumer end and the lithium carbonate futures market. Short - term attention should be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Analysis - On June 23, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 was 58,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 59,120 yuan/ton, a 0.77% drop from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 259,487 lots, and the open interest was 356,954 lots, an increase of 2,607 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 656,617 lots, an increase of 9,340 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 167,517 lots to 282,439 lots, and the overall speculation degree was 0.43. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,779 lots, a decrease of 1,014 lots from the previous day. The futures were at a discount of 830 yuan/ton to the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 - 60,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 57,850 - 58,850 yuan/ton, also a 4,500 - yuan/ton decrease. The market continued to have an oversupply situation. Supply was abundant, while downstream demand was weak, with only rigid demand for restocking. There was no sign of concentrated restocking. The market showed a differentiated situation: large lithium salt enterprises had relatively firm prices, while some small and medium - sized enterprises' prices were loose. The overall market trading was light [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. There is no suitable strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-24 特朗普称以伊将达成停火协议 原油大幅走低 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将会有一个完全和彻底的停火。（从现在开始 大约6个小时，当以色列和伊朗已经结束并完成他们正在进行的最后任务！）在12小时后，战争将被视为结束。伊 朗将先启动停火，到第12小时后，以色列将开始停火，24小时后，世界将向这场12天战争的正式结束致敬。在每 次停火期间，双方将保持和平和尊重。而伊朗高级官员也确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡旋的、美国提出的与以 色列的停火协议。原油价格出现大幅回落。贵金属价格波动相对有限。此外，国内方面，工信部等九部门发表声 明称，目标到2027年，黄金资源量增长5%~10%，黄金、白银产量增长5%以上。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-23，沪金主力合约开于 777.26元/克，收于 781.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.35%。当日成交量为 158979手，持仓量为 152462手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 782.00 元/克，收于 786.10 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.56%。 2025-06- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main driver of the methanol market lies in the fluctuations of crude oil prices at the upstream cost end. After the US struck Iran, the oil price declined, indicating that the market believes the most intense expectations have been fulfilled, and there is limited room for further intensification. The market has started to trade on the expectation of Iran's plant resumption, leading to a high - opening and low - closing trend in the methanol futures market. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's plant resumption. [3] - Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still low, and the port basis remains strong. There are concerns in the market about the loss - induced maintenance of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants that rely on imported methanol at ports. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will materialize. [3] - In the inland region, the operating rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, and the inventory accumulation rate of inland factories is still slow, indicating a certain resilience in inland demand. However, the high price difference between ports and inland areas is a factor dragging down the methanol price from reaching a peak. [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China. [26][31][32] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol plants in China (including integrated plants). [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures present various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. [39][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. [45][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The photovoltaic rush in May exceeded expectations, potentially pre - consuming a significant amount of the second - half installation demand. As a result, the subsequent consumer side may be difficult to sustain, and the market may continue to be weak. For industrial silicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2509 opened at 7375 yuan/ton and closed at 7420 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 303119 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with individual silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreasing, while those in Tianjin, Xinjiang, and other regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Although the explicit inventory has decreased due to many warehouse receipt cancellations recently, the total inventory is accumulating. The consumption side is average, with downstream enterprises making rigid purchases [1][2]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the market will oscillate at the bottom. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 31200 yuan/ton and closing at 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 78183 lots, and the trading volume was 88450 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the inventories of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 2.94% week - on - week, while the silicon wafer output decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - **Price of Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with a slight increase in the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components [3][5]. - **Strategy**: The market is mainly trading on the weak expectation of subsequent installations and the production increase of silicon material factories. The market may continue to be weak. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range and sell on rallies for hedging [6].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-24 中东局势现缓和迹象，指数低开高走 市场分析 中东局势再变。国内方面，财政部副部长廖岷会见中国美国商会代表团，就中美经贸关系、中方开放举措、美企 在华经营等进行深入沟通。廖岷强调，美方应与中方一道，共同履行好磋商共识成果，推动中美经贸关系行稳致 远。海外方面，据央视新闻最新报道，伊朗已同意美国斡旋下的以色列与伊朗停火方案，中东地区持续紧张的局 势出现缓和契机。美国6月标普全球制造业PMI初值持稳于52，为2月以来最高，好于市场预期。 指数低开高走。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.65%收于3381.58点，创业板指涨0.39%。行业方 面，板块指数涨多跌少，计算机、国防军工、煤炭、银行行业涨幅居前，仅食品饮料、家用电器、钢铁行业收跌。 当日沪深两市成交金额下滑至1.1万亿元。海外市场，多位美联储官员释放出降息信号，美联储副主席鲍曼表示， 可能支持最早7月降息。古尔斯比表示，如果贸易政策影响消失了，应该继续降息。美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指 涨0.94%报19630.97点。 期指贴水深。期货市场，基差方面，股指贴水较深。成交持仓方面，当日仅IH成交量增加，股指 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing a weak demand in the off - season, with both showing a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a general outlook of weakening oscillations [1][2]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets have obvious off - season characteristics, with both showing a continuous oscillating trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the spot market, the morning buying sentiment was good, but the overall purchase volume was average. Except for a price increase of a small - board safety glass brand, other brands' quotes were stable [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the overall downstream procurement was average, mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the speculative sentiment was weak [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With some production lines in the red, the glass supply decreased month - on - month. The downstream rigid demand remained weak, and real - estate data was still at a low level. During the traditional consumption off - season, the high inventory of glass strongly suppressed prices. Attention should be paid to glass factories' cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: As previously - overhauled alkali plants resumed production and new projects were launched, the soda ash output increased month - on - month, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The demand from the float and photovoltaic sectors weakened, and the real - estate sector continued to drag down consumption. With the expected contraction of float - glass supply in the future and the approaching of the short - term consumption off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would continue to push down prices [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2]. Double Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures fell by 6 yuan/ton to 5610 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. At the beginning of the week, the market was full of wait - and - see sentiment, and there were few spot quotes. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese output rebounded from a low level, the molten - iron output increased slightly, and the demand for silicomanganese increased slightly. The inventories of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicomanganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to silicomanganese inventories and manganese - ore shipments [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5316 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market rose slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. Currently, the ferrosilicon output increased month - on - month, the demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory was at a high level. As the consumption off - season approached, the consumption intensity of ferrosilicon would be tested. The ferrosilicon production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. However, the overall restocking of ferrosilicon was in a healthy state. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity - price changes and industrial policies on the black - metal sector [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].

油脂日报 | 2025-06-24 国产菜籽上市，油脂承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8520.00元/吨，环比变化-16元，幅度-0.19%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8126.00 元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.37%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9721.00元/吨，环比变化-5.00元，幅度-0.05%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.26%，现货基差P09+100.00，环比变化 -94.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8280.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.72%，现货基差Y09+154.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：1月9日讯，1月9日马来西亚棕榈油离岸价为1095美元，较上日跌15美元，进口到岸价为1125 美元，较上日跌15美SPPOMA：2025年6月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比上月同期增加2.5%。多位行业官 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The bond market showed a mixed performance last week. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. The manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line, strengthening the market's judgment of weak economic conditions and supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and external uncertainties increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. However, the Lujiazui Forum did not introduce unexpectedly loose measures, cooling the market's expectations of the central bank's bond trading. The bond market generally rose due to the unchanged LPR in June, the weak stock market, and the relatively stable capital situation. The market's expectations for loose policies in the second half of the year increased, and trading in ultra-long-term bonds was active, but overall, it was still affected by the policy vacuum period [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - The monthly Chinese CPI decreased by -0.10% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by -3.30% year-on-year. The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of +0.51%. M2 decreased by -0.10% month-on-month, with a decline rate of -1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of +1.02%. The daily updated indicators included the US Dollar Index, USD/CNH (offshore), SHIBOR 7-day, DR007, R007, AAA-rated negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) 3M, and AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) [8]. 3.2 Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.53 yuan, 106.28 yuan, 109.16 yuan, and 121.29 yuan respectively. The price changes were -0.01%, 0.00%, -0.01%, and -0.04% respectively. The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were -0.068 yuan, -0.049 yuan, -0.087 yuan, and -0.396 yuan respectively [2]. 3.3 Overview of Money Market Capital - On June 23, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates, including 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M, were 1.367%, 1.497%, 1.713%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 3.4 Overview of Spreads - The report provides various spread trend charts, including the inter - delivery spread trends of treasury bond futures, the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads in futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [7][39][43]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the TS main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [46][49][59]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the TF main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [55][59][61]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the T main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the T main contract in the past three years [66][69][71]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the TL main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [74][77][80].