股指期权日报 | 2025-06-18 期权成交量 2025-06-17，上证50ETF期权成交量为78.47万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为67.36万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为126.62万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为4.32万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为75.79万张；上证50股指期权成交量为2.29万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为6.21万张；中证1000期权总成交量为18.97万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.95，环比变动为-0.03；持仓量PCR报0.91，环比变动为-0.03； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.77，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报0.85，环比变动为-0.03； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.89，环比变动为+0.06；持仓量PCR报1.11，环比变动为-0.08 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.54 ，环比变动为+0.22；持仓量PCR报0.96；环比变动为+0.00； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.04，环比变动为+0.10 ；持仓量PCR报0.89，环比变动为-0.0 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-18 市场流动性概况 2025-06-17，股指板块成交4648.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.69%；持仓金额9743.90亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.51%；成交持仓比为47.51%。 国债板块成交3525.27亿元，较上一交易日变动+47.20%；持仓金额8673.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.11%；成交 持仓比为41.10%。 基本金属板块成交1742.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.94%；持仓金额3849.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.32%；成 交持仓比为64.02%。 贵金属板块成交4010.39亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.95%；持仓金额4629.86亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.65%；成交 持仓比为84.12%。 能源化工板块成交6408.23亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.29%；持仓金额3860.67亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.80%；成 交持仓比为120.83%。 农产品板块成交3266.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-23.26%；持仓金额5615.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.11%；成 交持仓比为50.61%。 黑色建材板块成交1644. ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-18 关注以伊冲突和美联储利率决议 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，较前值继续回落，主 要受制造业拖累，美国关税的不利影响显现。中国5月消费走强，工业生产偏弱，投资三大分项增速均下行，国内 经济基础仍待夯实。中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，进口下降3.4%。从 集装箱的船运数据来看，5月上旬出口有所改善，但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色一般的背景下，前 期透支的需求会重新回到偏弱的去库周期中。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码 的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内 瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 特朗普关税反复。5月28日 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Policy support continues, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The central bank's policies aim to boost credit, stabilize market expectations, and promote high - quality economic development. However, the progress of China - US trade negotiations affects market risk appetite, and the suspension of tariffs and export rush may delay subsequent policy implementation [1][2]. - In the short - term, the bond market will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. A clear signal from the policy side is needed to break the current situation [3]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 0.10% year - on - year; China's PPI (monthly) decreased by 0.40% month - on - month and 3.30% year - on - year [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (0.51%); M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% (- 1.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% (1.02%) [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 98.82, an increase of 0.69 (0.70%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1806, a decrease of 0.004 (- 0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.51, with no change (- 0.13%); DR007 was 1.52, with no change (- 0.22%); R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 (- 6.66%); The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.62, a decrease of 0.01 (- 0.77%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, with no change (- 0.77%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc [12]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Central bank: On June 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. - Money market: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.369%, 1.508%, 1.571%, and 1.621% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [67]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only mentions figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield [74]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile price of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The production industry should focus on policies promoting the transformation of traditional manufacturing. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the National Development and Reform Commission has raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices [1]. - The foreign exchange market in May 2025 was stable, with a net inflow of cross - border funds of 33 billion US dollars in the non - bank sector, including high - level net inflows from goods trade and increased foreign investment in domestic stocks [2]. - In the industry overview, international oil prices have rebounded significantly, PTA prices have continued to rise, and egg prices have continued to decline. The urea operating rate is at a high level. The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are at a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased. The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [3][4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promotes the high - end, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries, and encourages the use of digital technologies and relevant policies [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic gasoline prices by 260 yuan/ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan/ton on June 17 [1]. Service Industry - In May 2025, the non - bank sector had a net cross - border capital inflow of 33 billion US dollars, with stable net outflows in service trade, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded significantly [3]. - Chemical: PTA prices have continued to rise [3]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have continued to decline [3]. Mid - stream - Chemical: The urea operating rate is at a high level [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low [5]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased [5]. 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [6].

化工日报 | 2025-06-18 伊朗EG装置停车增多，EG价格上行 核心观点 市场分析 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-40美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为117元/吨（环比+11 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比-3.4万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨，中性，港口库存预计平稳，关注伊朗装置停车下到港节奏变化。 整体基本面供需逻辑： 供应端，6月国内供应端陆续恢复，整体负荷不高，全月供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但 是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，关注地缘冲突下伊朗装置停车后到港节 奏变化；需求端，瓶片工厂新增检修计划，需求预期偏弱。后续关注原料大幅反弹后聚酯的减产动作以及乙二醇 大装置重启进度。 策略 单边：短期偏多，关注中东地缘冲突进一步演变 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期 期现货方面：昨日EG主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict intensifies, leading to more shutdowns of Iranian methanol plants, and the port basis strengthens significantly again with strong short-covering sentiment in paper contracts. The current stage is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts with high volatility. The short - term arrival pressure in China in June is still high, and the ports are accumulating inventory in the short term. Attention should be paid to when the reduction of imports due to problems with Iranian plants in July - August will be realized and the loading situation in Iran. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inventory recovery rate of inland plants is still slow. The inland demand resilience exceeds expectations, and the operation rates of acetic acid and MTBE have rebounded rapidly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][20]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of inland coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [24][28][29]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated ones) [32][34]. IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [36][42][50]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [51][53]. Market Data - **Inland Data**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (+0), the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 693 yuan/ton (-5). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1988 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of 133 yuan/ton (+4); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2000 yuan/ton (+110). Shandong Linyi is 2325 yuan/ton (-55), with a basis of 70 yuan/ton (-46); Henan is 2270 yuan/ton (-30), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton (-21); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 0 yuan/ton (+74). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 379,120 tons (+8,630), and the northwest factory inventory is 237,100 tons (+2,600). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 302,090 tons (+39,910), and the northwest factory pending orders are 167,000 tons (+17,000) [1]. - **Port Data**: Taicang methanol is 2615 yuan/ton (+30), with a basis of 160 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 298 US dollars/ton (+13), the East China import spread is - 31 yuan/ton (-16). Changzhou methanol is 2500 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2505 yuan/ton (+25), with a basis of 50 yuan/ton (+34). Longzhong's total port inventory is 652,200 tons (+71,000), Jiangsu port inventory is 312,000 tons (+30,700), Zhejiang port inventory is 156,000 tons (+15,000), Guangdong port inventory is 124,000 tons (+21,000); the downstream MTO operation rate is 88.56% (+2.07%) [2]. - **Regional Spread Data**: The spread between northern Shandong and the northwest is - 8 yuan/ton (+20), between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is 78 yuan/ton (+35), between Taicang and southern Shandong is 40 yuan/ton (+85); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang is - 390 yuan/ton (-85); the spread between Guangdong and East China is - 290 yuan/ton (-5); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is 75 yuan/ton (-80) [2]. Strategy - The strategy is to cautiously make long - hedging operations [3].

化工日报 | 2025-06-18 上游原料价格短期仍坚挺 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13870元/吨，较前一日变动-40元/吨。NR主力合约12140元/吨，较前一日变动-20 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13750元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1710美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1650美元/吨，较前一日变动-45美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex据中国海关总署6月9日公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合 计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25.2%。2025年1-5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计347.6万吨， 较2024年同期的281.4万吨增加23.5%。 据隆众资讯了解，目前国内全钢胎企业开工稳定为主，前期个别检修企业装置运行恢复至常规水平，整体 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 仓单小幅去化，关注近月合约交割情况 市场分析 2025年6月17日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于59720元/吨，收于59860元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨0.2%。当 日成交量为181606手，持仓量为307335手，较前一交易日增加6913手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳590 元/吨。所有合约总持仓612829手，较前一交易日减少2770手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少92035手，成交 量减少，整体投机度为0.44 。当日碳酸锂仓单31713手，较上个交易日减少330手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月17日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为13.35 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.77 万吨，下游库存为4.07 万吨， 其他库存为3.52 万吨。 碳酸锂总体供需扔偏过剩，但近期仓单持续降低，需关注07合约仓单注销后下游接仓单意愿，短期或有一定博弈。 策略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Ship companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation [1]. - The supply and demand of the US route have both increased, and the freight rates on the US East and West routes have declined from their highs and may have peaked [3]. - The capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June, and there is an expectation of a price increase in August [4][7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [8]. - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and arbitrage opportunities such as going long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and going long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 90,975 lots, and the daily trading volume was 73,550 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1431.50, 1240.40, 1901.80, 2038.00, 1416.10, and 1611.00 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. As of June 15, 2025, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Europe route in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 279,400 TEU [4]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on oil transportation but a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [6]. - Ship delays dragged down the SCFIS on June 16, and it is expected that the SCFIS on June 23 will still be affected [5]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the freight rates on the US East and West routes have declined from their highs and may have peaked [3]. - The 8 - month period is a traditional peak season, and there is an expectation of a price increase, but attention should be paid to the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of the freight rates [7].