Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple strategy rating: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates strategy rating: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current expectations of apple inventory volume and structure are reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal consumption recovery, inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory adjustment. Apple futures prices declined slightly, while the spot market was stable but with general shipments. The new - season apple inventory was lower than last year, and the consumption was under pressure due to high prices and competition from citrus [3][4]. - Red dates: If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season red dates, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. The red dates futures price rose significantly, but the market was facing inventory pressure and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The market was in a critical period of season and season - change, and the consumption situation would be the focus [8][9]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 9379 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton (-0.65%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1879 and AP01 - 1079 increased by 61 respectively [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract was 9225 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton (+2.56%) from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 325 decreased by 30 [5]. Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price declined slightly. The late Fuji spot market in the warehouse was stable but with general shipments. The new - season apple inventory was lower than last year by over 10%, the inventory structure changed, and the consumption was under pressure due to high prices and competition from citrus [3]. Red dates - The red dates futures price rose significantly. The market arrival quality was uneven, the price difference widened, and the acceptance of ordinary goods was low. The new - season red dates were in the process of being picked, the purchase enthusiasm was low, and the inventory pressure was high [8]. Group 5: Strategy Apple - Neutral to bullish. Pay attention to terminal consumption recovery, inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory adjustment, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. Red dates - Neutral. Focus on the terminal market's acceptance of new - season red dates and the inventory situation in the circulation link. The near - month contract may have some room to fall [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have fallen and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $135.09 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,380 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 35 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,390 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,516 lots, and the open interest was 96,310 lots. The highest price was 22,445 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 151,000 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news, with a low valuation. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. The polysilicon futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of (-90) yuan/ton (-1.00%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 262,676 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 41,524 lots, a change of -854 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - In terms of exports, in October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 36% and a year - on - year decrease of 31%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 606,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In terms of imports, the cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67%. The significant month - on - month decrease in exports in October was mainly due to export policy, with some export orders shipped in September and new orders in October also affected [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (100) yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market continued to rise, and the price center shifted further upward. The current quoted price range was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was stable at 13,000 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted prices were concentrated at 13,200 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price decreased slightly. After the production reduction in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. Currently, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates mainly due to overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low. If there is policy promotion, the futures price may have room to rise [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. It opened at 53,600 yuan/ton and closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.15% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 128,427 (126,266 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 187,876 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.63%, the weekly polysilicon output was 27,100.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.11%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.78 GW, a month - on - month change of - 2.59% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (-0.06) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 (-0.02) yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. The component production plan in November continued to decline as expected. An accident occurred in a component enterprise in East China over the weekend, which was expected to affect part of the component output [6]. Strategy - Both the supply and demand sides of polysilicon weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The performance of the consumption side was average. Currently, the futures price was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. The policies were still being promoted, and the futures price fluctuated greatly. Participants should pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performance was average, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate mainly [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [8]. - Cross - variety: None [8]. - Spot - futures: None [8]. - Options: None [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials have expressed a dovish monetary policy stance. Although there is still uncertainty about a December rate cut, short-term market expectations for monetary easing have improved. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, and the silver price is expected to be slightly stronger than gold, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of the pace of rate cuts, Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market, and he believes that the delayed economic reports after the December meeting may make the January decision more difficult. San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month, believing that the sudden deterioration of the job market is more likely and harder to control than a sudden rise in inflation. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine have completed a new 19-point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided by Trump and Zelensky, and Russia believes the European peace plan is not constructive and does not serve its interests [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 933.98 yuan/gram and closed at 930.32 yuan/gram, a change of 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 935.60 yuan/gram and closed at 938.68 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,715.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,808.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,574,854 lots, and the open interest was 347,468 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,890 yuan/kg and closed at 11,975 yuan/kg, up 1.41% from the afternoon close [3]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.029%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.54%, up 0.77 BP from the previous trading day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 24, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 3,016 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 1,044 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 472,495 lots, a change of 8.79% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by -2,997 lots, and the short positions changed by 138 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,108,210 lots, a change of 14.26% from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 1,040.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,258 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous trading day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -10.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,173.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 78.79, a change of 2.55% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.48, a change of 3.24% from the previous trading day [7]. Fundamentals - On November 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,158 kg, a change of -2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 724,146 kg, a change of 106.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kg [8]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 915 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram [9]. - Silver: The price is expected to maintain a slightly bullish range, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10]

Report Summary Core View The report focuses on the price fluctuations in the upstream energy sector and provides an overview of the mid - level events and the industry situation. It analyzes the price and production changes in different industries from upstream to downstream, reflecting the current market trends [1]. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices are oscillating downward. On November 24, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $58.1 per barrel, down 3.38%, and the spot price of Brent crude oil was $61.9 per barrel, down 3.80%. The price of liquefied natural gas was 4,122 yuan/ton, down 1.90%, and the coal price was 830 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [1][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The nickel price has declined. On November 24, the spot price of nickel was 118,250 yuan/ton, up 0.74%, while the prices of other non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, and aluminum also showed different degrees of change [1][34]. - **Agriculture**: The palm oil price has slightly declined. On November 24, the spot price of palm oil was 8,562 yuan/ton, down 1.68% [1][34]. - **Chemicals**: The urea price has slightly increased. On November 24, the spot price of urea was 1,657.5 yuan/ton, up 1.69% [1][34]. Mid - stream - **Chemicals**: The PX operating rate has increased, the PTA operating rate has decreased, the polyester operating rate is neutral, and the urea operating rate has increased [1]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt operating rate has decreased [1]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Services**: The number of domestic flights has slightly decreased [2]. Mid - level Events Production Industry On November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel prices would be reduced by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively. After conversion to liter prices, 92 - octane gasoline was reduced by 0.05 yuan, and both 95 - octane gasoline and 0 - diesel were reduced by 0.06 yuan, reducing the fuel costs of private cars and logistics enterprises [1]. Service Industry On November 24, the People's Bank of China announced that it would conduct 1 trillion yuan of medium - term lending facility (MLF) operations on the 25th, with a term of 1 year. Given that 900 billion yuan of MLF was due in November, the net MLF investment scale for the month would reach 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term range of Zhengzhou cotton prices is limited, with a mid - to long - term optimistic outlook after seasonal pressure. For sugar, short - term downward pressure exists but with limited downside and possible weak rebounds, while the long - term outlook is not optimistic. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to insufficient fundamental improvement [2][5][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.93%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,574 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. From November 14 - 20, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 270,200 tons, with 84.6% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report increased global cotton production in 2025/26, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to restocking. US cotton sales pressure has increased. In the short term, the external market is under pressure. Domestically, after the National Day, the expected new - cotton output decreased, and the seed - cotton purchase price rose, driving up Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the expected Xinjiang output has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, limiting the downside space [1] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, view cotton prices with an oscillatory mindset. In the long term, be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure and consider the opportunity to go long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,370 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%). The sugar spot price in Yunnan Kunming was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. As of November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production, and 2 more are expected to start soon. By the end of November, about 31 mills are expected to be in operation. Currently, 18 mills have started production, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than last year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian supply in the second half of October was strong, and the Indian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the sugar price. However, the short - term Indian exports are difficult to increase, and the Brazilian supply pressure is weakening, limiting the further decline of the raw - sugar price. In the Chinese market, the higher - than - expected imports and the start of sugar - mill production in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the downside. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,490 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices showing an upward trend [5][6] Market Analysis - The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. The weak demand in Europe and the US and the insufficient domestic demand are the main factors suppressing the pulp price. Although there is new paper - production capacity, the effective demand is insufficient, and the paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the insufficient improvement in the pulp fundamentals, the price is expected to continue low - level oscillations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are maintaining a volatile trend. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks is slow, the Fed's dovish stance has increased the expectation of a December interest rate cut, boosting risk assets, and the new crude oil import quota issued by the Ministry of Commerce is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and a mid - term short - position allocation is recommended, with a strategy of shorting the calendar spread [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light sweet crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 78 cents to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose 81 cents to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.94% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices may fall to the $30 - 40 range in 2027. It maintains the average price forecast of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $58 per barrel, expects the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to be $54 per barrel, and forecasts the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to be $57 per barrel and WTI crude oil to be $53 per barrel [1] - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Baghaei condemned the recent anti - Iran resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors, saying it was a "stain" on the designers and initiators, and that it interfered with the agency's operations and undermined its independence [1] - The US - Ukraine talks in Geneva showed progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the November 27 deadline for the agreement may be extended to next week. European natural gas prices are still higher than before the 2022 energy crisis, but are now a fraction of the peak, and additional supply is expected to push prices down further in the coming years [1] - The board of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to 120 billion barrels and establish a new company to manage an acid gas field, which is expected to produce 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas, 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate per day [1] - The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending November 21 was 419, up from 417 the previous week; the total number of US natural gas rigs was 127, up from 125 the previous week [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices are in a volatile state. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach a short - term agreement, the Fed's dovish remarks have increased the December interest rate cut expectation, and the new crude oil import quota is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Mid - term: Short - position allocation, shorting the calendar spread [3] Risks - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance of European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage period may be over, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, and the port inventory has further increased, suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream开工率 remains low, with a significant increase in phenol开工率 but a decline in aniline and adipic acid开工率, and styrene is still in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, the port inventory has not continued to decline, and the arrival volume has increased rhythmically. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress at the end of the month and whether the maintenance period will be further extended. Downstream开工率 is still low, with EPS开工率 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工率 rising slightly at a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [2]. - The strategy includes: no unilateral operation; for basis and inter - period, conduct long - short spread trading on EB2512 - EB2601 when the price difference is low; for cross - variety, widen the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 when the price difference is low [2]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The basis and inter - period spread data of pure benzene and EB are presented through figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [6][10][16]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - The production profits and internal and external spreads of pure benzene and styrene are analyzed, including figures like naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, and styrene non - integrated device production profits [18][20][28]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - The inventory and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene are shown, such as pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, and styrene operating rate [34][39][40]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of styrene downstream products are presented, including EPS, PS, and ABS operating rates and production profits [44][45][50]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products are analyzed, including caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid operating rates and production profits, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, and PC [53][61][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [1]. - For PX, the PXN was $262 per ton (a $2.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With the speculation on the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America and the lifting of India's BIS, the PXN has widened. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of some plants [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 49 yuan per ton (a 14 - yuan - per - ton increase from the previous period). PTA spot processing fee is 197 yuan per ton (a 9 - yuan - per - ton increase), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 270 yuan per ton (a 1 - yuan - per - ton increase). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. With support from the upstream of polyester load, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation is small, and the basis has rebounded. But as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. In the long - term, after the end of the centralized capacity - release period, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly, and the load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply. The raw material price rebound has led to concentrated restocking, and the sales of filament yarn have increased significantly, with inventory reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventory is low, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 135 yuan per ton (a 20 - yuan - per - ton decrease from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuates with raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the price low, but it is difficult to raise prices. As demand orders weaken marginally, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 444 yuan per ton (a 3 - yuan - per - ton decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers generally continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and the 05 contract should be focused on in the long - term. For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level, and PXN is supported by polyester production, but its rebound space is limited. For TA, there are many maintenance activities in the near - term, and the inventory accumulation pressure is small, but it will gradually increase as demand weakens. The 01 contract's upside is limited, while the long - term outlook is better. For PF, the load is high, factory inventory is low, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips change little, and the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East - China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [7][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve the toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][61] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price difference, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [73][82][86] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East - China water - bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [90][92][102]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by the stock market, differences in Fed rate - cut expectations, and increased global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, a 2.38% decrease; manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, a 1.61% decrease [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.20, with a 0.01% increase; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1059, a 0.11% decrease; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, a 2.12% increase; DR007 is 1.47, a 2.05% increase; R007 is 1.51, a 1.24% decrease; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, a 0.08% decrease; AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, a 0.08% decrease [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, etc. [12][15][18][24] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance [27][34][35] 4. Spread Overview No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names related to the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][38][40] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate [40][42] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate [52] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate [59] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate [66] Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: On October 27, the central bank restarted the open - market treasury bond trading operation; on October 30, China and the US reached a three - aspect consensus. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year and retain the 10% rate. In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Funding - aspect**: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue had a mild recovery, expenditure rhythm slowed down, and the fund shrank while special bonds issuance slowed. General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance was strong, and corporate and household financing demand was weak. On November 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 338.7 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main repurchase rates showed a recent decline [2]. - **Market - aspect**: On November 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.51 yuan, and 115.76 yuan respectively, with price change rates of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.06%, and 0.15%. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.048 yuan, - 0.009 yuan, - 0.018 yuan, and - 0.004 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].