1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is in a downward cycle, and HPL has announced two additional ships in October [1][2][3] - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, with the risk of whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4] - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 12, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,656.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 45,620.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1528.00, 1350.00, 1482.10, 2082.00, 1417.60, and 1742.00 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 8, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1961.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1823.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2792.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 11, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2235.48 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1082.14 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU; 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [5] - From August to October 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route showed certain fluctuations, and there were empty sailings and additional ships in August and September [2] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, a Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for talks on a Gaza cease - fire framework, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the possibility of a partial cease - fire and hostage release agreement with Hamas no longer exists [1] - The speed of container ships of different capacities and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal are important factors affecting the supply chain [52][64][70] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Western holidays are concentrated in the fourth quarter, and merchants usually stock up in advance, which leads to a relatively high level of shipping volume. The freight rate is usually adjusted to a high level by shipping companies through supply - side measures [4] - The industrial production index, import amount from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year in the EU 27 countries, as well as China's export volume to the EU, are important indicators to measure demand and the European economy [73][80][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side should focus on the meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia on August 15th and Trump's stance on sanctions against Russia. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. With the addition of new supplies from Latin America and the North Sea entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia, leading to a notable decrease in supply [2]. - In terms of PX, the PXN was $267/ton in the previous trading session (a $6.50/ton increase compared to the previous period). Recently, the operating rate of PX in China will gradually recover, and with the production of MX, the supply is abundant. The supply of PX is expected to increase, but the increase will be limited. Due to the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet has shifted from inventory depletion to a loose balance, but PX overall remains in a low - inventory state. Without obvious negative factors on the demand side, considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA plants, there is support for the lower limit of PXN. However, the floating price of PX has recently shown some instability, and attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was - 13 yuan/ton (a 1 - yuan/ton decrease compared to the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 179 yuan/ton (an 8 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 379 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament has significantly decreased. The polyester operating rate remains strong in the short term. Due to short - term PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, but major suppliers are actively selling, which is suppressing prices. In August, PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up. With the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the market supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 88.8% (a 0.7% increase compared to the previous period). In late July, driven by the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the operating rates of weaving and texturing factories rebounded. However, since the demand has not substantially improved and it is just a transfer of inventory, the situation of poor orders and inventory build - up still persists. This week, the weaving operating rate has declined again, and it still needs to wait for the improvement of seasonal peak - season orders, which may gradually start in late August. In the short term, the polyester operating rate remains strong, and this week it has slightly increased. Looking at different products, the pressure on cotton - type short - fiber factories is manageable, while the pressure on hollow and low - melting - point products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when the demand will pick up. After the phased reduction of filament inventory, the short - term pressure to reduce production has been relieved, and there may even be an increase in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up smoothly in early August. For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several major factories have been gradually implemented, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the short term, and the increase in the operating rate may occur at the end of August or in September [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 88 yuan/ton (a 10 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period). Currently, due to the high inventory of yarn mills and limited improvement in downstream orders, market confidence is still lacking, and the processing margin remains in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. Overall, the demand for PF has slightly improved but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips was 421 yuan/ton (a 14 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period). It is reported that the main polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to maintain reduced or suspended production in August, with no plans to increase or restart production for the time being. It is expected that the operating rate of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term, and with the extension of reduced or suspended production, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover [4]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, a neutral stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR, and attention should be paid to the cost side of crude oil and macro - sentiment changes. For PX, PX plants will be restarted in a concentrated manner in August, and with the production of MX, the supply is abundant. The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the balance sheet has shifted from inventory depletion to a loose balance, but PX overall remains in a low - inventory state. Attention should be paid to the negotiation of PX floating prices. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has significantly decreased, and the polyester operating rate remains strong in the short term. However, PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the market supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved but is still limited, and the overall willingness to hold positions is low. The near - month contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, several major factories have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to range - bound trading after recovery. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross - product trading, short the PTA processing fee at high levels: PX - 0.655PTA; long the PR processing fee at low levels: PR2510 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse arbitrage on PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and cross - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [10][11][13] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures cover the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operating Rates - Information on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester short - fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [49][51][60] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester short - fiber load, polyester short - fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type short - fiber load, original - recycled price difference (1.4D polyester short - fiber - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][71][77] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip price difference, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [85][87][96]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-13 供给端的扰动再次引发价格普涨 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20640元/吨，较上一交易日变化10元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价20540元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-130元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20610元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-12日沪铝主力合约开于20630元/吨，收于20735元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，最 高价达20740元/吨，最低价达到20585元/吨。全天交易日成交83080手，全天交易日持仓210986手。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本20065元/吨，理论利润-165元/吨。 市场分析 库存方面，截止2025-08-12，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.7万吨，较上一期变化2.3吨，仓单库存48710 吨，较上一交易日变化378吨，LME铝库存477100吨，较上一交易日变化1250吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-12SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish; the rating for BR is neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is positive, and rubber prices are expected to remain strong. For RU and NR, with expected increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is likely to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories. For BR, supply may increase slightly, demand remains stable, and it may follow raw materials to weaken but is affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [5] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 market price was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from 613,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from 794,831 tons in the same period of 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] Consumption and Production Data - The ANRPC's June 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in June would decrease by 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption would increase by 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of 2025, global natural rubber cumulative production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, while cumulative consumption would increase by 1% to 7.715 million tons [2] Sales Data - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period of last year [2] US Tire Import Data - In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% to 3.15 million [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,060 yuan/ton (- 55), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+ 65), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,784 yuan/ton (- 105.10), the NR basis was 262 yuan/ton (- 7). Whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+ 40), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 50 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,520 yuan/ton (+ 40) [4] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 62.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.74), Thai latex was 54.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 49.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.70 Thai baht/kg (- 0.65) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+ 0.80%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (- 0.27%) [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,288,849 tons (- 4,853), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (- 11,918), the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (- 1,350), and the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+ 2,519) [4] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 75 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was quoted at 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was quoted at 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 1,012 yuan/ton (+ 142) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 68.17% (- 4.30%) [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,290 tons (- 230), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,150 tons (+ 350) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market for pure benzene and styrene is in a range - bound oscillation, waiting for further increase in downstream procurement. For pure benzene, although the port inventory has decreased again, the downstream demand has declined from its peak, and the subsequent de - stocking amplitude is small with inventory pressure remaining. For styrene, the port inventory has entered the seasonal decline cycle, but the downstream开工 rate has limited improvement, and the downstream has not further increased procurement volume [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The report mentions figures related to the basis of pure benzene (such as the main contract basis, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread, the spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract) and styrene (such as the main contract basis, the spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract), but no specific analysis of these data is provided [8][12][19]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to the production profits and domestic - foreign spreads of pure benzene and styrene are presented, including naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, and various spreads between different regions' prices. However, no in - depth analysis of these data is given [21][24][32]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased, with the futures premium narrowing. The operating rate of downstream products has declined, and the subsequent de - stocking amplitude of pure benzene is small with inventory pressure remaining. Styrene port inventory has entered the seasonal decline cycle, but the downstream operating rate has limited improvement [1][3][37]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - The production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS have decreased to varying degrees. The operating rate of EPS has decreased significantly, while the operating rates of PS and ABS have increased from the bottom. The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still persists [2][3]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - The production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid have decreased, while the production profit of aniline has increased. The operating rates of caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid have decreased, and the operating rate of phenol has increased [1]. Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both pure benzene and styrene. For basis and inter - period trading, it is advisable to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and far - end BZ2603, and the spread between BZ2603 - BZ2605 are high; also, conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread between EB2509 - 2510 is high. For cross - variety trading, it is recommended to narrow the spread between EB and BZ when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to exhibit the characteristics of the traditional peak - demand season. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues Spot Market - On August 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.50/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,475 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures were weakly volatile. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi with low inventories quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,915 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,986 lots, a change of -5,637 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 51,223 lots, a change of -3,172 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price was volatile, with a high of 16,980 yuan/ton and a low of 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,960 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On August 12, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a change of -1,100 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 12, the LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, a change of -2,575 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain volatile, with a recommended option strategy of selling a wide - straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - New - season US soybeans are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there are concerns about Sino - US policies. In China, the supply of soybeans is sufficient and the bean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in import costs provides some support to bean meal prices. For corn, the remaining grain in the market is less than last year, but market sentiment is weak and demand is still low [3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3091 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2653 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-2.61%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2260 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2645 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] 3. Recent Market Information - US soybean: As of August 10, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71%. The growth is at a high level in the past five years [2] - Ukraine oilseeds: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 oilseed production, including an 800,000 - ton reduction in sunflower seed production to 13.8 million tons, a 300,000 - ton reduction in sunflower oil production to 5.9 million tons, a 160,000 - ton reduction in rapeseed production to 3 million tons, and a 400,000 - ton reduction in soybean production to 5.8 million tons [2] - US corn exports: As of August 7, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.492 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. From the 2024/25 season to date, the export inspection volume was 63.127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, reaching 90.4% of the USDA export target [4] 4. Market Analysis - Bean Meal: New - season US soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest, but Sino - US policies are uncertain. In China, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, the bean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in import costs supports prices [3] - Corn: In China, the remaining grain in the market is less than last year, but market sentiment is weak, and downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The future focus is on the new - season corn yield [5] 5. Strategy - The strategy for both bean meal and corn is cautiously bearish [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.14% at 2,770 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.95% at 3,502 yuan/ton. After the callback, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillating trend recently. The FU and LU futures followed the decline of the cost side, and the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet in the oil market has potential suppression on the energy sector. Short-term uncertainty comes from the outcome of the meeting between Russia and the US on the 15th. Whether the US tightens or eases sanctions against Russia will affect market sentiment [1]. - For the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, there are signs of stabilization in the spot premium and monthly spreads in the overseas market. However, the spot supply remains relatively abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. In the future, under the general trend of lighter crude oil and refinery equipment upgrades, structural support still exists. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. But in the short term, the previously accumulated inventories still need to be digested. According to shipping schedule data, the shipments of high-sulfur fuel oil from Russia showed signs of recovery in July and early August. The future trend depends on the progress of the meeting between Russia and the US this week. If the negotiation goes smoothly, the US relaxes sanctions against Russia, and Ukraine stops drone attacks on Russian refineries, there is a certain growth space for high-sulfur fuel oil, and the fundamentals may further loosen; otherwise, there is an expectation of a certain tightening of Russian fuel oil supply [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. On the one hand, domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. On the other hand, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract the release of supply. Moreover, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Market Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - After continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited, and there are signs of stabilization in the spot premium and monthly spreads in the overseas market. However, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and inventories in the Asia-Pacific region are high [1]. - Under the general trend of lighter crude oil and refinery equipment upgrades, structural support still exists. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. But in the short term, the previously accumulated inventories still need to be digested [1]. - According to shipping schedule data, the shipments of high-sulfur fuel oil from Russia showed signs of recovery in July and early August. The future trend depends on the progress of the meeting between Russia and the US this week. If the negotiation goes smoothly, there is a certain growth space for high-sulfur fuel oil, and the fundamentals may further loosen; otherwise, there is an expectation of a certain tightening of Russian fuel oil supply [1]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. After the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally [2]. - From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract the release of supply. Moreover, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating weakly [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The soybeans market shows a situation of low supply and demand. The futures of soybeans continued to decline, with limited inventory and a stable market in Northeast China. The first single - way auction last week ended in a complete failure, indicating weak spot demand. The demand in the Inner Pass market is sluggish, and the market is waiting for demand improvement after the start of school. Soybeans have entered the flowering stage, and weather impacts need attention [1][2] - The peanut market is in a period of transition between old and new crops, with a significant differentiation in the market. New peanuts' prices are strong due to delayed listing caused by weather, while old peanuts' prices are weak. Terminal demand is average, and most domestic markets have light sales. Attention should be paid to the selling attitude of old peanuts and the weather in new - crop production areas [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4034.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.00 yuan/ton (-0.81%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A09 + 266, an increase of 33 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: Soybean prices in the Northeast market were stable, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere. For example, the loading price of standard first - class, 39% protein medium - grain tower grain in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 2.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7944.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130.00 yuan/ton (-1.61%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 256.00, an increase of 130.00 (+103.17%) from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: The domestic peanut market was oscillating weakly. The average price of common peanuts was 4.23 yuan/jin. The remaining inventory of old peanuts was low, and transactions were based on quality. For example, the price of Baisha common peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan was 4.15 - 4.25 yuan/jin [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]