1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a narrow - range oscillation with limited downward space. The supply is abundant due to new capacity coming into production, while downstream demand is weak. However, the export window is open, and export orders are increasing, but PVC product exports may be affected by the ongoing anti - dumping investigation in India [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases as device maintenance resumes, and the demand from the alumina side is weak. There is a risk of demand weakening in the non - aluminum sector. The caustic soda spot price in the next two months may be supported by the expected new alumina plants in Guangxi, and cost support still exists [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4496 yuan/ton (+40), the East China basis is - 56 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China basis is 4 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4440 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4500 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 848 yuan/ton (-28), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 516 yuan/ton (-25), and the PVC export profit is 12.9 US dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.5 tons (-0.7), the social PVC inventory is 52.7 tons (-0.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.15% (+0.58%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.31% (+1.18%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 77.48% (+0.77%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.6 tons (-2.3) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2241 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 134 yuan/ton (-68) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 760 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1230 yuan/ton (-20) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (-63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 753.5 yuan/ton (+16.7), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 143.47 yuan/ton (-52.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 591.02 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 42.76 tons (+2.54), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.09 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina operating rate is 85.46% (+0.09%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 66.55% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 90.09% (+0.59%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the downward space is limited. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises are considering production cuts due to low prices. New capacity is gradually put into production, and the supply is abundant. The downstream operating rate decreases slightly, with general market purchasing sentiment. The high - level futures warehouse receipts suppress the futures price. The export window is open, but the export of PVC products may be affected by the anti - dumping investigation [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases as device maintenance resumes, and the demand from the alumina side is weak, with overall inventory accumulation. The non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid needs and may weaken in the future. The expected new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and cost support still exists [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Narrow - range oscillation with limited downward space. - **Inter - delivery**: Wait - and - see. - **Inter - commodity**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait - and - see. - **Inter - delivery**: Go long on the SH12 contract and short on the SH01 contract when the price difference is low. - **Inter - commodity**: None [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-11-25 终端观望为主，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3011元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2601合约2446元/吨，较前日 变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+39， 较前日变动+11；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-31，较前日变动+11；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+1。福建地区菜粕现货价格2630 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+184，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周五公布，美国8月大豆压榨量为594万吨。11月21日，咨询机构Patria Agronegocios表 示，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已经达到预估面积的79.61%，低于上一作物年度同期的83.29%。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松，大豆持续到港，油厂开机率虽有所上升，但库存消耗较为缓慢，依旧维持在百万吨 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-25 成本端弱势运行，市场震荡筑底 市场分析 1、11月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3060元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨25元/吨，涨幅 0.82%；持仓161041手，环比下跌4997手，成交226825手，环比上涨6569手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3520元/吨；华南，3060—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 原油端震荡下跌，沥青成本端支撑偏弱，但在价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号开始出现。现货方面，昨日西北、 华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格相对稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。具体来看，在炼厂开工 率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不 过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已 有所缓解，但底部反弹仍需要更多的刺激因素。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号夯实 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fuel oil market is driven by limited factors and is operating in a weak and volatile manner. Crude oil prices continue to oscillate weakly, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, putting downward pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. The fundamentals of the fuel oil market itself have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries. In general, the short - term market contradictions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are limited, and they may fluctuate following the crude oil market. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil does not have a strong trend for the time being [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.28% to 2,493 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 0.69% to 3,034 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further decline, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. The supply of Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, the partial units of Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low - sulfur crude oil is also recovering [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - In the pig industry, future supply will increase, especially with concentrated slaughtering in December. The supply-demand pattern of loose supply will continue due to supply growth outpacing consumption [2] - In the egg industry, current consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is slowly decreasing, the short - term oversupply situation is hard to change, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 11.40 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on November 24: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.70, up 0.33 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.85, up 0.39 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 66.43 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; mutton was 62.76 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.35 yuan/kg, up 1.2%; white - striped chicken was 17.50 yuan/kg, down 0.4% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3210 yuan/500 kilograms, up 26 yuan (+0.82%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.73 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan [3] - Inventory: On November 24, the national production - link inventory was 1.16 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, down 0.04 days (-2.88%) [3] Market Analysis Pig - Future supply will increase, especially with concentrated slaughtering of retail farmers and secondary fattening pigs in December. Although demand is growing, the supply growth rate is higher than the consumption rate, so the loose supply pattern will continue [2] Egg - Current consumption demand is at a normal low level. Although temperature drop is conducive to egg storage and there is some replenishment by supermarkets and e - commerce, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term oversupply situation is hard to change [4] Strategy Pig - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg - Cautiously bearish [5]

油料日报 | 2025-11-25 豆一受需求缺口拉动延续涨势，花生关注基层上货节奏 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化+41.00元/吨，幅度+1.00%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-50，较前日变化-41，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆价格表现坚挺，基层农户库存不多，挺价意愿较强，39%以上蛋白大豆毛粮 价格仍有趋涨走势，普通蛋白豆在高蛋白价格带动下也表现偏强。但从粮贸企业销售情况来看整体一般，随着还 粮陆续结束，价格或以持稳为主。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一 日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富 锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The external market of LPG is running strongly, but there are still resistances in the market. The LPG market's upward driving force remains insufficient, and the futures market may maintain a volatile operation in the short term [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On November 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4440; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150; North China market, 4250 - 4390; East China market, 4170 - 4350; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4760; Northwest market, 4300 - 4350; South China market, 4300 - 4450 [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 569 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. Converted into RMB, propane was 4438 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, and butane was 4360 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 561 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. Converted into RMB, propane was 4376 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, and butane was 4298 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [1][3] - The external market continued the volatile rebound trend. The high discount boosted the CIF cost, and the domestic LPG spot and futures market received some support. With the decline in the commercial volume of domestic refineries and the decrease in arrivals, the LPG fundamentals showed a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability was questionable. Last week, arrivals and port inventories rebounded again. In the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Overseas supplies are relatively abundant, and the downstream chemical demand is restricted by the lack of profit growth momentum, which will limit the upward space of the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

流动性日报 | 2025-11-25 市场流动性概况 2025-11-24，股指板块成交6817.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-32.28%；持仓金额13053.50亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.93%；成交持仓比为52.04%。 国债板块成交5901.47亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.05%；持仓金额8269.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.87%；成交 持仓比为70.09%。 基本金属板块成交3957.00亿元，较上一交易日变动-27.36%；持仓金额5695.83亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.22%；成 交持仓比为75.28%。 贵金属板块成交8136.73亿元，较上一交易日变动-24.48%；持仓金额4307.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.08%；成交 持仓比为251.76%。 能源化工板块成交4991.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.92%；持仓金额4500.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.16%；成 交持仓比为101.63%。 农产品板块成交3330.15亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.56%；持仓金额6015.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为52.06%。 黑色建材板块成交299 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak employment market, Fed officials' remarks were dovish, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut has increased. The Sino-US presidential dialogue boosted market sentiment, leading to gains in the three major US stock indexes. The domestic market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. As the accumulated market sentiment is gradually released, it is expected to start a volatile upward trend. The specific pace still needs to focus on policy dynamics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro and Overseas**: The Sino-US presidents had a dialogue, and Fed officials believed the labor market was weak and advocated a December rate cut [1] - **Spot Market**: A-share and US stock indexes closed higher. The defense and military, media, computer, and social service sectors led the gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical, coal, banking, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.7 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [2] - **Futures Market**: The degree of futures index discount narrowed, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Overseas, due to the weak employment market, Fed officials' remarks were dovish, increasing the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The Sino-US presidential dialogue boosted market sentiment, and the three major US stock indexes closed higher. The domestic market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, and is expected to start a volatile upward trend. The specific pace still needs to focus on policy dynamics [3] Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [7][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.12%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.26% [13] - **Other Charts**: Include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Futures Index Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract decreased by 52,863, and the open interest decreased by 7,338 [16] - **Futures Index Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed certain changes. For example, the basis of the IF contract's current-month contract was -12.85, with a change of -40.44 [41] - **Futures Index Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spread of stock index futures also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was -15.80, with a change of +37.00 [48]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].