化工日报 | 2025-06-19 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4471元/吨（较前一交易日变动+71元/吨，幅度+1.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+77元/吨，幅度+1.72%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比+3元/ 吨）。上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推 动明显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨 产能，后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面震荡抬升，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-43美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为150元/吨（环比+33 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比-3.4万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨，中性，港口库存预计平稳， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 供应前景乐观，糖价依旧承压 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。宏观方面，近期中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过宏观环 境不确定性仍强，随后价格又回落整理，需关注中美最终谈判结果和关税具体落地情况。国际方面，6月USDA供 需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。 美棉主产区近期降雨偏多，旱情较前期持续改善，其他国家供应端天气的叙事性目前也不足，国际棉价短期预计 延续震荡，跟随宏观情绪波动为主。后续重点关注各主产国天气及新棉生长状况。国内方面，棉花商业库存加速 去库，需求表现仍具韧性，本年度后期供需仍有趋紧预期。不过新年度国内植棉面积稳中有增，棉苗长势普遍较 好，新作产量继续增加的概率较大，种植端缺乏明显利好驱动。国内需求步入淡季，下游新订单情况未有明显改 善，成品库存有所上升，市场对于90天期满后的关税政策仍存担忧，需求面支撑不足。 策略 中性。尽管中美经过2天谈判后原则上达成协议框架，但当前关税政策仍存在高度不确定性，宏观利好提振有限。 新年度疆棉丰产预期较强，国内进入消费淡季，棉价持续 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with significant differences in the oil market, leading to a volatile adjustment in the market [3] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,518 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.85% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8,084 yuan/ton, a change of +112 yuan or +1.40%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9,703 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.25% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.46%, with a spot basis of P09 + 252 yuan, a change of -32 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,250 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan/ton or +0.73%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 166 yuan, a change of -52 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.23%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 197 yuan, a change of 0 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information - **Import Prices**: Argentina's July - shipment C&F price of soybean oil was 1,143 US dollars/ton, up 59 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the September - shipment price was 1,138 US dollars/ton, up 66 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotes of imported rapeseed oil from Canada were 1,050 US dollars/ton for the July - shipment and 1,030 US dollars/ton for the September - shipment, both unchanged. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed were 616 US dollars/ton for the July - shipment and 606 US dollars/ton for the August - shipment, both unchanged. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans and US West soybeans for the July - shipment were 467 US dollars/ton and 462 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged, and the August - shipment C&F price of Brazilian soybeans was 465 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [2] - **Import Soybean Premiums**: The import soybean premium quotes for the Mexican Gulf (July - shipment) were 229 cents/bushel, unchanged; for the US West Coast (July - shipment) were 202 cents/bushel, unchanged; for Brazilian ports (August - shipment) were 193 cents/bushel, down 1 cent/bushel [2] - **Palm Oil Exports**: According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% or 599,000 tons month - on - month to 1.983 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil in May increased by more than four times month - on - month [2]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-19 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘冲突进展及油价后续波动，对纯苯及苯乙烯成本的影 响。而纯苯方面，国产开工率已上升至高位，下游CPL开工进一步下降，拖累纯苯需求，纯苯美韩窗口仍关闭，后 续发往中国压力仍大，纯苯港口库存再度延续上升，纯苯加工费偏弱。苯乙烯自身，到港节奏放缓，港口库存小 幅下降，港口库存绝对量仍偏低，港口基差坚挺，但中长期则在苯乙烯开工逐步回升的背景下，工厂库存有累积 预期。下游方面，PS及ABS库存同期仍有压力，开工亦表现一般。 策略 港口基差坚挺 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费149美元/吨（-8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费132美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差49.7美元/吨（+5.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-50元/吨（+80元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差317元/吨（-129元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润229元/吨（+100元/吨），预期逐步 压缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly, mainly affected by the expected increase in the downstream polysilicon start - up and the overall macro - sentiment, with little change in the fundamentals. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly on June 18, 2025, mainly due to the expected increase in production and weak consumption [1][2][3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract 2509 opened at 7390 yuan/ton and closed at 7425 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 317763 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 55620 lots, a change of - 448 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10400 - 10900 yuan/ton. The start - up of the organic silicon industry increased, but consumption was average, and prices were under pressure [1] Polysilicon - On June 18, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures dropped significantly, opening at 33960 yuan/ton and closing at 33370 yuan/ton, a - 2.00% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 30435 lots (43443 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 94724 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a 2.23% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a - 3.40% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 23800.00 tons (an 8.00% change), and silicon wafer production was 13.10GW (a 0.40% change) [3] Silicon Wafer - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.06 yuan/piece [3] Battery Cell - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] Component - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change), and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change) [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The strategy was mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2] Polysilicon - The futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by the expected increase in production and weak consumption. The strategy was range - bound operation, and sell hedging at high prices. There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Factors to Watch - The resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macro and capital sentiment [4] - The start - up of organic silicon enterprises [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 苹果库内货源不多，红枣到货减少 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7650元/吨，较前一日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.03%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+550，较前一日变动+2；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1950，较前一日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库内交易不温不火，客商拿货积极性不高，产区新季苹果套袋工作陆续收尾。西部产区 客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大果及好果 走货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步 果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上 统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收跌， ...

2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3930—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4000元/吨；华南，3550—3650元/吨； 华东，3680—3770元/吨。 昨日川渝地区沥青现货价格延续涨势，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。在中东局势冲突的影响下，油价维持 偏强运行，沥青成本端支撑仍存。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。由于沥青刚 性需求较为疲软，多数地区的市场情绪仍较为谨慎。整体来看，目前沥青自身基本面驱动不足，盘面价格波动主 要受到原油端影响，考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复扰动。 石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-19 现货价格持稳，终端需求仍偏弱 市场分析 1、6月18日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3695元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨1.87%；持仓274368 手，环比上涨14609手，成交260367手，环比下降37582手。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔 ...

能源化工板块成交7019.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.54%；持仓金额3987.64亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.29%；成 交持仓比为125.68%。 农产品板块成交3055.32亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.47%；持仓金额5695.42亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.42%；成交 持仓比为49.05%。 流动性日报 | 2025-06-19 市场流动性概况 2025-06-18，股指板块成交4861.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.57%；持仓金额9652.31亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.94%；成交持仓比为50.10%。 国债板块成交2368.33亿元，较上一交易日变动-32.82%；持仓金额8671.80亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.02%；成交持 仓比为27.55%。 基本金属板块成交1871.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.42%；持仓金额3903.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.38%；成 交持仓比为68.55%。 贵金属板块成交4165.63亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.87%；持仓金额4687.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.24%；成交 持仓比为110.74%。 黑色建材板块成交1814.20 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-19 美豆优良率小幅下滑，大豆价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4258.00元/吨，较前日变化+11.00元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-78，较前日变化-11，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘温和上涨，其中基准期约收高0.4%，主要受到原油 价格上涨和未来几周中西部天气不确定性的支撑。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨4.25美分到8.75美分不等，其中7月期 约上涨4.25美分，报收1074美分/蒲;8月期约上涨4.50美分，报收1076.25美分/蒲;11月期约上涨7.25美分，报收1067.75 美分/蒲。6月18日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭 山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标 ...

>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...