新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 市场成交情况变化有限 铅价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-17，LME铅现货升水为-29.76美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16725 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-30.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16725元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-25元/吨至16775元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10175元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10425元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-17，沪铅主力合约开于16995元/吨，收于16860元/吨，较前一交易日变化-120元/吨，全天交易 日成交29996手，较前一交易日变化-244手，全天交易日持仓41457手，手较前一交易日变化-600手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17000元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 俄罗斯货源并不被普遍认可 流动货源仍相对偏紧 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-17，沪铜主力合约开于 78640元/吨，收于 78570元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.03%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,600元/吨，收于 78,560 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 铜：谨慎偏多 总体而言，本周国内长单价格仍在谈判之中，现货TC价格仍处于低位，不过下游精铜杆企业反馈订单持续走低。 未来需求展望仍存较大不确定性。但在地缘因素复杂，美联储持续存在降息压力的情况下，铜品种的类贵金属属 性或许也会从中受益。故操作上目前仍然建议以逢低买入套保为主，买入区间在77,000元/吨至77,500元/吨。 套利：暂缓 期权：short put @ 77,000元/吨 据 SMM 讯， 昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对当月2507合约报升水180-升水300元/吨，均价报价升水240 元/吨，较上 一交易日涨210元/吨；SMM1#电解铜价格为78620~78810 元/吨。早盘，沪期铜2507合约窄幅波动，于78420-78560 元/吨波动； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy of polyolefins and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins [2] - PE's previous maintenance devices have resumed operation, and some devices are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP's maintenance devices have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure, and the upstream inventory level has a small de - stocking amplitude [2] - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains weak, mainly for terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand is difficult to drive [2] - The production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the loss state. New maintenance of PDH devices in Shaoxing Sanyuan and Haitian Petrochemical, and the extended maintenance of Juzhengyuan have strengthened the cost support for PP [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, and the basis between LL/PP in East China and their main contracts [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - It covers the production profit of LL (crude - oil - made), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - made and PDH - made), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [18][21][30] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - It involves the price differences between HD injection molding/HD hollow/HD film/LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding in East China and PP drawing [29][37][38] 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - It includes the import and export profits of LL and PP, and the price differences between different regions' FOB/CFR prices and China's CFR price [42][54][62] 5. Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - It contains the operation rates of PE's downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and PP's downstream plastic weaving, BOPP film, and injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP's downstream plastic weaving and BOPP film [63][64][72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE and PP in oil - making enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][78][82]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors, with limited upside potential for continuous rebound [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,762 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton. As of June 15, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 85%, the squaring rate was 19%, the boll - setting rate was 3%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. Macro - level positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations initially boosted domestic cotton prices, but uncertainty led to price retracement. The June USDA supply - demand report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton产区 has seen improved drought conditions due to more rainfall. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are de - stocking rapidly, but new - season cotton planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [6] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,691 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.42%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. In the second half of May, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 5.47% year - on - year, the sugar production ratio increased, and sugar production increased by 8.86% year - on - year [3][4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and closed higher. Raw sugar prices dropped to a nearly four - year low due to the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Domestically, favorable sales data supported spot prices, but with tightened imports of syrup and premixes, the supply - demand gap needs to be filled by out - of - quota imports. As raw sugar prices weakened, import profits emerged, increasing supply pressure expectations [5][6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - Pulp prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term due to pessimistic terminal demand expectations and a lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices oscillated weakly. On the supply side, Arauco's long - term contract prices have been continuously lowered, and domestic pulp imports increased in May, with high port inventories. On the demand side, European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, with the paper - making industry in the traditional off - season from June to July [8]

尿素日报 | 2025-06-18 情绪向好，尿素延续上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-17，尿素主力收盘1774元/吨（+51）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+50）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1830元/吨（+50）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（-50），山东基差： 36元/吨（-1）；河南基差：16元/吨（-11）；江苏基差：56元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润280元/吨（+85），出口利润569 元/吨（-50）。 供应端：截至2025-06-17，企业产能利用率87.80%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.71 万吨（+14.17），港口样 本库存量为24.50 万吨（+4.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-17，复合肥产能利用率33.81%（-3.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.77%（-0.54%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.71日（+0.24）。 尿素盘面市场走势延续，情绪向好，价格持续上涨。以色列继续袭击伊朗并导致军事冲突升级。当前正值传统农 需旺季，全国大部分地区水稻、玉米等作物的追肥旺季，多数企业新单成交尚可，尿素企业 ...

当前正值传统农需旺季，全国大部分地区水稻、玉米等作 物的追肥旺季，多数企业新单成交尚可，尿素企业订单天数 小幅增加。与此同时，下游工业需求减弱，复合肥、三聚氰 胺等行业开工率环比走低。尿素产量持续处于高位，目未来 检修计划较少，供应端压力较大，市场呈现供大于求格局， 导致厂内库存处于高位。在出口方面，尿素通过法检后有序 发往港口，港口库存因此呈现小幅增加趋势。 短期来看，市场情绪预计仍受以色列伊朗事件影响，尿素 报价继续走高，建议谨慎对待，关注尿素出口情况。 华泰期货 化工组 热点解读:尿素上涨点评 ◆ 2025年06月17日 15:00 今日尿素期货盘面大幅上涨，其中主力合约UR2509收盘 价涨幅3.99%。 尿素盘面延续昨日的市场走势，市场情绪向好，价格持续 上涨。以色列继续袭击伊朗并导致军事冲突升级,今日已宣 布打死伊朗最高军事指挥官，同时伊朗继续对以色列进行大 规模导弹打击,国际油气价格震荡偏强运行,持续从成本端 带动国际市场尿素价格偏强运行，国内多数尿素企业报价有 不同程度的上调。 风险提示: 地缘政治事件、尿素出口情况、下游需求情况 安泰期货化工组 梁宗泰 F3056198 Z0015616 - ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the recent continuous outflow of warehouse receipts, good shipment of spot - futures traders, and improved overall commodity sentiment have led to a stable rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. However, the fundamentals are weak. If the market rebounds significantly, upstream producers can consider selling hedges at high prices. The trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation [2]. - For polysilicon, the polysilicon futures market maintains a range - bound oscillation. Near - month contracts are strong due to delivery games, while far - month contracts are weak due to poor consumption expectations. The trading strategy is neutral [5]. 3. Summary by Industry Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was mainly volatile. The main contract 2509 opened at 7360 yuan/ton and closed at 7360 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.10%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract at the close was 318,893 lots. On June 17, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56,068 lots, a change of - 755 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming and Huangpu ports decreased slightly, while in Tianjin, the price of 553 silicon increased slightly and 3303 silicon decreased. Prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - In terms of consumption, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,400 - 10,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The start - up of silicone monomer enterprises continued to increase. After the maintenance of monomer plants in the southwest and east China ended, the maintenance plants in north China were also about to resume. The start - up rate of the silicone monomer industry was expected to approach 70%. Although the start - up situation was good, consumption was average and prices were weak [1]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly range - bound operation, upstream producers sell hedges at high prices. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 17, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 34,230 yuan/ton and closing at 34,010 yuan/ton, a closing price change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 43,443 lots (51,277 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on the day was 45,805 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a month - on - month change of 2.23%), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a month - on - month change of - 3.40%), polysilicon weekly output was 23,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 8.00%), and silicon wafer output was 13.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.40%) [3][4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.06 yuan/piece. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [5]

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-18 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期 埃及高硫燃料油进口持续增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.03%，报3247元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.25%，报3806 元/吨。 随着伊以冲突升级，原油价格走势偏强，对FU、LU单边价格形成提振，但目前局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复波 动。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体矛盾有限，市场存在一定支撑，伊以冲突暂时还未对基本面造成实质性影响。 高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。其中，埃及燃料油 进口延续增长态势。参考船期数据，埃及6月份高硫燃料油进口量目前预计在69万吨，环比增加13万吨。参考去年 季节性，发电终端需求还有提升空间。此外，由于以色列天然气出口到埃及，如果其天然气田生产受损，则可能 导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧，进而采购更多的高硫燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性 的供应中断，但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口在冲突中受到严重损坏，则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能，我国炼厂 的原料来源 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refined nickel market shows a pattern of supply surplus with a weak and volatile futures market but rising spot premiums, and it is recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [2][3] - The stainless - steel market is also in a weak and volatile state, with the weakening cost support of nickel - iron raw materials. It is also recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,740 yuan/ton and closed at 118,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.92% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 100,455 lots and an open interest of 83,823 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD began to expand slowly, and it may enter a weak and volatile stage in the short term. There was a top - divergence phenomenon around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The short - term resistance level is 122,000 - 123,000, and the support level of 119,000 has been broken, showing a bottom - divergence structure [2] - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The spot trading of refined nickel was okay overall, and the premiums increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,241 (- 109.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 (1,986) tons [2] Strategy - The recent spot trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the supply surplus pattern still exists. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [3] - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,540 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 105,310 lots and an open interest of 186,878 lots [3] - The main contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume of the 08 contract was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand further, and the short - term support level may be around 12,400. The resistance level is around 13,100 [4] - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market reduced their prices by 100 yuan/ton for shipment compared with the previous trading day, and the market trading volume was average, with no sign of confidence recovery. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the seller's quotation was mostly 940 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was also 12,850 yuan/ton, with the 304/2B premium ranging from 370 to 670 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [5] - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-18 区域流通有限，现货价格推涨 市场分析 1、6月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3644元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌1元/吨，跌幅 0.03%；持仓279759手，环比下跌6817手，成交297949手，环比上涨1983手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3930—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4000元/吨；华南，3600—3650元/吨； 华东，3680—3770元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格延续涨势，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。由于原油以及沥青期货整体 维持高位波动，现货市场挺价意愿偏强。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。整体 来看，目前沥青自身基本面驱动不足，当前盘面价格波动主要受到原油端影响，考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场 或面临反复扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图 ...