1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is currently in a relatively stable state with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. The overall apple spot market is in a dull state, with low inventory levels supporting the price of inventory fruits. The quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, leading to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and inventory fruits. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in Shandong will be on the market successively, and attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala, as a concentrated supply of red fruits may impact inventory fruits [3][4] - Red dates: The red date market has intensified differences in the new - season production forecast. The short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, since red dates are still in the traditional off - season of consumption and the inventory of old dates remains high, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8178 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.63% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 578 in Qixia was down 51 from the previous day, and the spot basis AP10 + 822 in Luochuan was down 51 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 11550 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.16% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 2050 was up 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market News Apple - The market of stored Fuji apples remains stable and dull, with slow overall transactions. Early - maturing Gala and Luoli apples have been successively listed for trading. In the western production areas, the remaining supply of goods is limited, and spot merchants mainly sell their own inventory. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants is small, and they are still cautious in purchasing, mostly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the sales are still mainly low - priced striped red apples. In the early - maturing aspect, bagged Gala apples have been widely removed from bags and are successively listed for trading. This week, the supply of Gala apples in Tongchuan and Weinan will increase. In the Shandong production area, Luoli apples are being traded in an orderly manner, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is acceptable. The demand in the sales area market is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Red dates - In the main production areas of Xinjiang gray jujubes, jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management during the growth period of jujube trees. Some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived at the parking area, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade at 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade at 8.40 yuan/kg, and third - grade at 6.90 yuan/kg, and the prices increased slightly by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with nearly 50% of the arrivals being traded. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, and the price of high - quality goods was strong, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 11.50 yuan/kg, first - grade at 10.50 yuan/kg, and second - grade at 8.50 yuan/kg, and the prices increased by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with a small amount of trading in the morning market [6] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed up, reaching a half - month high. The delayed supply of new - season Gala apples and the low inventory in recent years have led to a continued upward trend in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather changes in the main production areas. Last week, the trading of early - maturing apples in the western region was limited, bagged Gala apples were sporadically listed, and bagged Qinyang apples were basically out of the market. In the Shandong production area, the sales of stored Fuji apples were slightly faster than the previous week, but the overall transactions were still limited, and merchants were not active in purchasing, especially for large and high - quality fruits. In terms of price, early - maturing fruits were weak, and the price of stored fruits was stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of the sales areas, the phenomenon of high - quality apples getting high prices was obvious, and the overall sales were still slow. This week, the supply of early - maturing bagged Gala apples will increase successively, and attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. Overall, the apple spot market remains dull, with low inventory levels supporting the price of stored fruits. The poor quality of early - maturing apples with many green - returning phenomena has led to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and stored fruits. This week, early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in the Shandong production area will be successively listed for supply. Attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala apples, and if red fruits are supplied in a concentrated manner, it may have a certain impact on stored fruits [3] Red dates - The red date futures closed down yesterday, ending a continuous upward trend. Festival stocking is gradually starting, but the consumption of inventory is limited. The temperature in the production areas is high, and the quality of new - season jujubes remains to be verified. Currently, jujubes are in the fruit expansion period, and attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes in the production areas on the yield and quality. In the new - season production areas, some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. Last week, there was windy weather in some areas, causing some fruit drops in a small number of jujube orchards in windy areas, and attention should be continuously paid to weather changes this week. In the sales areas, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved recently, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. Since new jujubes entered the critical period of flowering and fruit - setting in June, the market has been continuously trading based on the expectation of new - season production reduction, and the sensitivity to new - season changes in the production areas has increased. According to the research data statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this month was 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, indicating a decline in sample - point inventory [7] Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since there are no prominent contradictions in the apple fundamentals, it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [4] Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. The differences in the new - season production forecast of red dates are intensifying, and the short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the traditional off - season of consumption, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The market continues its slow - bull pattern. The US inflation data strengthens the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, driving overnight US stocks up. The domestic A - share market maintains an upward trend driven by liquidity, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, and attracting foreign capital. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a key point, leading to increased market volatility and enlarged trading volume. The market still has the basis for an upward trend in shocks, but attention should be paid to the impact of trading volume changes on the sustainability of the trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The China - US joint statement indicates that both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12. China will continue to suspend relevant measures in the unreliable entity list. The three - department jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal discount policy. Overseas, the US July CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the September meeting with a probability of over 90% [1] - **Spot Market**: A - share indices oscillated upward. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.24%. Communication, electronics, and coal industries led the gains, while national defense and military industry, steel, and building materials industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 1.9 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan. US stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq rising 1.39% [1] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of index futures is converging as the current - month contract is about to be delivered on Friday. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of IH increased, while the open interest of index futures decreased [1][3] Strategy - The US inflation data strengthens the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, driving overnight US stocks up. The domestic A - share market continues its upward trend driven by liquidity. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a key point, with increased volatility and enlarged trading volume. The market still has the basis for an upward trend in shocks, but attention should be paid to the impact of trading volume changes on the trend's sustainability [2] Macro Economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][9][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.24% to 2409.40 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52% to 4143.83 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.03% to 2807.01 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41% to 6418.16 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28% to 6963.61 points [12] - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 1.9 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IH increased, while the open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 103,585 (a decrease of 1,165), and the open interest was 256,148 (a decrease of 8,595) [14] - **Basis**: The basis of index futures is converging as the current - month contract is about to be delivered. The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts are provided, such as the IF current - month contract basis was 0.57 (an increase of 7.08) [1][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different periods are given, for example, the IF spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 13.20 (a decrease of 2.00) [43]

供应端：截至2025-08-12，企业产能利用率81.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为88.76 万吨（-2.97），港口样本 库存量为48.30 万吨（-1.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-12，复合肥产能利用率41.50%（+2.82%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.10%（-2.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.53日（+0.41）。 中美经贸会谈再次声明暂停实施24%关税90天，市场气氛较为积极，带动化工板块整体走强，尿素盘面小幅提振。 下游农业需求进入淡季，南方地区农业用肥逐渐结束，下游工业需求逐步提升，复合肥进入秋季肥生产季节，开 工率有所提升，但维持刚需采购。尿素产量高位运行，上游库存同比仍偏高位。随着新增产能不断投产，未来尿 素供应仍将持续走高。煤制尿素利润尚可，成本端支撑偏弱。8月为出口窗口期，尿素出口持续进行，港口库存窄 幅波动运行，预计出口量变动不大。 尿素日报 | 2025-08-13 市场气氛转好，盘面小幅提振 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-12，尿素主力收盘1727元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1730 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1720元/ ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-13 二育进场略有增加，猪价维持震荡 中性 风险 无 鸡蛋观点 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14230元/吨，较前交易日变动+90.00元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-550，较前交易日变动-70；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.78元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09-450，较前交易日变动-180；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-890，较前交易日变动-90。 据农业农村部监测，8月12日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.39，比昨天上升0.24个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为114.63，比昨天上升0.28个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.26元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；牛肉64.49 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉59.85元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；鸡蛋7.54元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.55元/ 公斤，比昨天下 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-13 美国7月CPI同比低于预期 市场分析 商品和股指期货：工业品逢低多配。 风险 地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产 下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 FICC日报 | 2025-08-13 7月基本面仍有韧性。7月30日政治局会议明确部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政策要持 续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调。全球7月的 经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造业保持扩张；中国7月按 美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑。中国7月CPI同比持平，PPI环比降 幅收窄，煤炭、光伏等行业竞争秩序优化减少价格拖累。美国方面，7月非农数据不及预期，但7月服务业PMI明显 改善，"大漂亮"法案或支撑后续消费。7月美国总体CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期，同比涨 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-13 股债跷跷板效应明显，国债期货大多收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 （2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年上半年，全国财政运行总体平稳，支出扩张力度加大、收支结构持续优化。一般公共 预算收入达11.56万亿元，同比微降0.3%，其中税收收入占比超八成，尽管总体下降1.2%，但增值税、消费税、个 税等主要税种保持增长，显示税源恢复态势逐步确立。支出方面，一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%， 聚焦社会保障、教育、科技、卫生等民生和发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - Supply - side overall start - up increased month - on - month, with expected reduction in propylene commodity sales volume and tightened market supply, supporting propylene prices. Downstream start - up showed mixed trends, with weak demand and limited support for propylene price increases. Cost support for propylene decreased due to expected OPEC+ production increase and falling propane prices [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][24] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [37][38][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64][65]

化工日报 | 2025-08-13 中美对等关税延期，市场震荡上行 策略 单边：中性。国内供应增加趋势，但海外装置运行不畅，港口库存回升不如预期，低库存下关注成本变动 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4432元/吨（较前一交易日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.41%），EG华东市场现货价 4506元/吨（较前一交易日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.40%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）76元/吨（环比-2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-49美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-33元/吨（环比+17 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为55.3万吨（环比+3.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为48.6万吨（环比+5.9万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数9.6万吨，周度港口库存小幅累 库；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.1万吨，预计本周主港将继续小幅累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇合成 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The significant reduction in Saudi Arabia's crude oil allocation to Chinese buyers in September reflects that Chinese state - owned refiners are optimizing their procurement strategies due to Saudi Arabia's high OSP and high domestic inventories. China's refined oil terminal consumption is sluggish, and crude oil procurement cannot deviate from refinery processing volume and refined oil terminal consumption in the long run [2] Group 3: Summary According to Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the September - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped 79 cents to $63.17 per barrel, a 1.24% decline; the October - delivery Brent crude oil futures price on the London market fell 51 cents to $66.12 per barrel, a 0.77% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.83% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and non - OPEC+ producers in its monthly report. In 2026, global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. Non - OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 will increase by about 630,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 730,000 barrels per day. In July, OPEC+ further increased production by 335,000 barrels per day [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the second seasonal decline in more than two decades [1] - The EIA lowered its oil price forecast. It expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $67.22 per barrel (previously $68.89 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $51.43 per barrel (previously $58.48 per barrel). It expects the average WTI price in 2025 to be $63.58 per barrel (previously $65.22 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $47.77 per barrel (previously $54.82 per barrel) [1] Group 4: Summary According to Strategy - The strategy is short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 5: Summary According to Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russia and macro black - swan events; upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russia and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]