Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core View of the Report - Despite the approaching National Day holiday and weak procurement from downstream battery companies, the lead ore supply remains tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging with a buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Analysis - **Mine end**: In the week of September 27, the domestic lead concentrate market continued to face a supply shortage. The import ore market was seller - dominated with light actual transactions. The processing fee (TC) of imported ore pb60 showed a downward trend. Smelters in Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Henan reported downward pressure on lead concentrate processing fees. Due to insufficient imported ore arrivals and a tight supply of recycled lead raw materials, the demand gap for lead concentrates widened. Some smelters lowered the pb50TC quote to boost procurement [1] - **Primary lead**: In the week of September 27, the average operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises was 66.49%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week. Production in Henan fluctuated, with one enterprise resuming production and another still under maintenance. Small factories in Hunan reduced production slightly due to raw material quality issues, while production in Yunnan was stable. A factory in North China increased production after maintenance, and enterprises in East China have a planned maintenance in the fourth quarter but the specific time is undetermined [1] - **Recycled lead**: In the week of September 28, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces rebounded to 27.47%, a rise of 3.73 percentage points from the previous week. This was mainly due to the pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream battery companies, which pushed up the lead price. The stable price of waste batteries helped smelters repair their profits from losses to profits. The operating rate in Anhui increased significantly by 8.25 percentage points. It is expected that the resumption of production will accelerate after the holiday, and the operating rate may continue to rise [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of September 28, the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.62%, a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week. The demand for electric bicycle batteries improved due to stable supporting orders and pre - holiday restocking by dealers, which drove some enterprises to increase production. However, orders for automotive batteries were weak, and some enterprises planned to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday for the National Day, resulting in low production enthusiasm. With the approaching double festivals, enterprises generally arranged holidays, and the operating rate is expected to decline [2] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 28, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 4.64 million tons, a decrease of 2.05 million tons from the previous week. The LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 219,425 tons from the previous week [2] Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging with a buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices dropped to a relatively low level last week, increasing downstream procurement enthusiasm and leading to a reduction in social inventory and a repair of spot discounts. The supply side remains stable, domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and the absolute value of social inventory is still relatively low. There is no need to be pessimistic about aluminum prices, and consumption at home and abroad in the fourth quarter is expected to be positive [9]. - The alumina market has no obvious positive factors, with supply remaining in excess and social inventory rapidly accumulating. Although the cost side is in a state of game, the downward space is limited under the background of low valuation [9]. - The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy is recovering, but the supply is still in excess, with high overall social inventory. The absolute price is affected by macro factors, which is not conducive to the seasonal convergence trend of the price difference with aluminum ingots [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price - As of September 26, 2025, LME aluminum closed at $2,649.0 per ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,745 yuan per ton. The spot premium in East China was 0 yuan per ton, in the Central Plains region was 50 yuan per ton, and in the Foshan region was -75 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) was $5.4 per ton [1]. Supply - As of September 26, 2025, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, with no weekly change; the operating capacity was 44.439 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons; and the industry operating rate was 98.25% [1]. Demand - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of aluminum rods was 361,600 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons, and the weekly output of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils was 367,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,700 tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises was 67.00%, a weekly increase of 1.80%; the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises was 69.00%, a weekly increase of 0.80%; the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises was 72.60%, a weekly increase of 0.70%; and the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises was 54.60%, with no weekly change [1]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 21,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 123,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,000 tons. As of September 26, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 63,230 tons [1][2]. Profit - As of September 26, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 16,268 yuan per ton, and the immediate production profit was 4,502 yuan per ton [3]. Alumina Price - As of September 26, 2025, the alumina futures contract closed at 2,901 yuan per ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi were 2,940 yuan per ton, 2,970 yuan per ton, 2,900 yuan per ton, 3,155 yuan per ton, and 3,150 yuan per ton respectively. The FOB price of imported alumina was $323 per ton [4]. Supply - As of September 26, 2025, according to Aladdin data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a weekly increase of 600,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [4]. Cost - As of September 26, 2025, the quoted price of Guinea bauxite on the website was $74.0 per dry ton, and the ocean freight was $26.0 per ton. The price index of domestic northern bauxite was 655 yuan per ton, and that of southern bauxite was 585 yuan per ton. The bauxite long - term contract price in the fourth quarter is expected to decline by $1 - 2 per ton, and there is still uncertainty in overseas bauxite [4]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total national alumina inventory was 4.505 million tons, a weekly increase of 44,000 tons. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.171 million tons, a weekly increase of 17,000 tons; the inventory at stations and ports was 1.042 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,000 tons; the port inventory was 72,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14,000 tons; the finished product inventory in alumina plants was 220,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons; and the warehouse receipt inventory was 149,211 tons [5]. Profit - As of September 26, 2025, calculated based on imported ore at $73.5 per ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was 3,182 yuan per ton, with a production loss of 242 yuan per ton; the full production cost using domestic ore was 2,979 yuan per ton, with a production loss of 39 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss of alumina was 108 yuan per ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price - As of September 26, 2025, the futures contract price closed at 20,325 yuan per ton. Jiangxi Baotai quoted 20,400 yuan per ton, and the purchase price of civil primary aluminum was 16,000 yuan per ton [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,000 tons, a weekly increase of 1,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,000 tons [7]. Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of ADC12 was 20,323 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit was 177 yuan per ton [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina [10]. - Arbitrage: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage for aluminum [10].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the trends of major currency pairs including USD/CNY, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY, and provides short - term trading strategies based on economic data and political situations of different countries [1][2][3] - For USD/CNY, the economic fundamentals show that the economic expectation difference is favorable for RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and the trade policy uncertainty is also neutral [1] - For EUR/USD, the euro lacks continuous upward momentum under the strong US dollar and may continue to be under pressure or rebound depending on different data performance [2] - For USD/JPY, the US dollar has structural support against the yen, and the political uncertainty in Japan may limit the yen's rebound [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis USD/CNY - US: In August, the PCE annual rate was 2.7% and the core PCE was 2.9%, indicating strong support for consumer and service prices. The PPI of the manufacturing sector declined year - on - year and month - on - month, and the increase in initial jobless claims suggested a possible loosening of the labor market. The tariff policy increased the uncertainty of the policy environment [1] - China: The export growth continued to decline, the import recovery was insufficient, and there was still deflation pressure although the decline was narrowing. New loans and social financing increased slightly, and the counter - cyclical factor had not been activated [1] - Fundamentals: The economic expectation difference is favorable for RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and the trade policy uncertainty is neutral [1] Other Currencies - Euro: EUR/USD is weak and oscillates around 1.17. The euro lacks continuous upward momentum. It may continue to be under pressure or rebound depending on different data performance [2] - Yen: USD/JPY is strong and approaching the key psychological level of 150. The US dollar has structural support against the yen, and political uncertainty in Japan may limit the yen's rebound [2] Strategy - USD/CNY: It is expected to oscillate in the 7.10 - 7.20 range in the short term. During the holiday, attention should be paid to US data and official speeches. The offshore market may react first, and the on - shore market will reflect it after resuming trading [3] - Yen: If Japan's political situation stabilizes and the expectation of the central bank turning hawkish increases, the yen may rebound; otherwise, USD/JPY may continue to rise [3] - Euro: If the inflation and economic data in the eurozone exceed expectations, the euro may recover against the US dollar; otherwise, the long - position of EUR/USD will face challenges [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level remains high, and future changes depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. Inland inventory has decreased again, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories in the northwest. Traditional downstream industries have different performance, with acetic acid being affected by high inventory and MTBE seeing an improvement in exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Supply - **Port Supply**: Overseas methanol operating rate is 63.14% (unchanged), and China's weekly imported methanol arrival volume is 279,000 tons (-75,400 tons), including 235,000 tons (-45,400 tons) in East China and 44,000 tons (-30,000 tons) in South China [1]. - **Inland Supply**: China's methanol operating rate is 82.50% (+2.59%), with coal - based methanol at 79.24% (+1.81%), natural gas - based at 50.79% (unchanged), and coke oven gas - based at 61.50% (+1.59%). Northwest operating rate is 84.99% (+4.18%), North China at 58.55% (-5.85%), Central China at 80.77% (-7.87%), East China at 82.30% (+2.51%), and Southwest at 83.97% (+5.97%) [1]. Demand - **Port Demand**: Taicang's average weekly提货量 is 3,268 tons per day (+450 tons), East China's MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 148,600 tons (-16,000 tons), and the operating rate of externally - purchased methanol MTO enterprises is 75.08% (+6.02%) [1]. - **Inland Demand**: Methanol enterprises' pending orders are 273,022 tons (+39,246 tons). Traditional downstream sample enterprises' raw material procurement volume is 36,300 tons (+5,000 tons), with formaldehyde operating rate at 44.71% (+1.32%), acetic acid at 78.97% (-3.44%), MTBE external sales factories at 64.23% (+0.66%), and dimethyl ether at 7.20% (+0.91%). Northwest MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 88,500 tons (+17,200 tons), and MTO enterprises' operating rate is 88.18% (+4.38%) [2]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Methanol port inventory is 1,492,190 tons (-65,580 tons), including 779,000 tons (-8,000 tons) in Jiangsu, 253,700 tons (-33,200 tons) in Zhejiang, 293,000 tons (-10,000 tons) in Guangdong, and 166,490 tons (-14,380 tons) in Fujian. MTO sample enterprises' methanol inventory is 700,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and downstream sample enterprises' is 186,600 tons (-5,600 tons) [2]. - **Inland Inventory**: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 319,940 tons (-20,540 tons), including 208,000 tons (-17,500 tons) in the northwest, 19,000 tons (-300 tons) in North China, 15,450 tons (+320 tons) in Central China, 55,800 tons (-2,050 tons) in East China, and 20,000 tons (-1,000 tons) in Southwest [2]. Market Analysis - **Port**: Port arrivals are lower than expected, and downstream pre - holiday pick - up is acceptable. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level is still high. Future changes mainly depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The lower support for the port still relies on the window for back - flowing to the inland [3]. - **Inland**: Transactions in the northwest are still good, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories. Inland inventory has decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. In traditional downstream industries, high acetic acid inventory drags down its operating rate, while MTBE exports have improved, leading to a recovery in its operating rate, and formaldehyde operating rate remains stable. In terms of supply, the recovery of coal - based methanol operating rate is still slow, waiting for a further increase in October [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: No strategy proposed - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - **Inter - variety**: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". There are no ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - From the fundamental perspective, for coke, the high - level oscillation of hot metal production supports the demand for coke, but the relatively high inventory compared to the same period restricts price increases. Coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have initiated the first round of price increases this week, intensifying the game between coke and steel enterprises. For coking coal, coal mine production is gradually recovering, and the demand is considerable. However, considering that the profitability of coke enterprises narrows after the raw material price increase and the pressure on the steel fundamentals suppresses coking coal to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1,692.5 yuan/ton, down 2.6% from last week; the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1,196.5 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from last week. This period's prices fluctuated due to factors such as inventory replenishment and accumulation during the National Day holiday [1][5]. Supply - This week, according to Mysteel statistics, the daily average coke output of independent coke enterprises' samples was 53.12 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04% from last week [1][22][30]. Demand - According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week and 6.22 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from last week but 39.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the daily average hot metal output was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons from last week and 17.5 tons higher than the same period last year. The hot metal output remains at a high level [1][42]. Inventory - According to Mysteel's survey data, this period, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 644.67 tons, an increase of 11.38 tons from the previous week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 790.07 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. Independent coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventory; the total coking coal inventory of all independent coke enterprise samples was 999.07 tons, an increase of 58.66 tons from the previous week [2][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and jujube industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current inventory level is low, providing price support. The new season is about to start, and the market has high expectations for the opening price, with the price expected to be stronger in the west than in the east [4] - For jujubes, if the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend may continue. Otherwise, the jujube futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract this week was 8,401 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 128 yuan/ton or 1.55% [1] - Spot: In Shandong's Qixia area, the price of 80 first and second-grade apples was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In Shaanxi's Luochuan area, the price of 70 semi-commodity apples was 9,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [1] Recent Market Information - Cold storage inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the national main apple-producing area cold storage inventory was 121,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 41,400 tons. The remaining inventory was concentrated in Shandong [2] - Production area: The inventory spot market was stronger in the east than in the west. The price of mid-late varieties in the west remained stable at a high level. In Shandong, the old Fuji inventory was not cleared, and the general cargo price was slightly weak [2] - Sales area: The number of early morning arrivals at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased slightly compared to last week. As the Double Festival approached, the market began to stock up, and the arrival volume increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [2] Market Analysis - The Double Festival stocking is in the later stage, and the late Fuji in the east and west is entering the bag-removing period. The inventory in Shandong has not been cleared, and the general cargo price is slightly weak. The western pickling Fuji is gradually being listed, and the price is stable at a high level [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The current inventory level is low, and the price has bottom support. The new season is about to start, and the market has high expectations for the opening price, with the price expected to be stronger in the west than in the east [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The Jujube 2601 contract rebounded this week. As of September 26, the closing price was 11,285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 615 yuan/ton or 5.76% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey jujubes in the 2024 production season was concentrated between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The price of first-grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [5] Recent Market Information - New season jujubes: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the sugar-accumulation period. The temperature in Xinjiang has dropped slightly, and no extreme weather has occurred. The market has a relatively clear judgment on the new season's yield trend, and concerns about quality have decreased [6] - Sales area: The arrival volume in the sales area market was low this week. The off-peak to peak-season transition period saw general downstream purchasing enthusiasm and weak Double Festival stocking [6] Market Analysis - The 2024 production season had a large jujube yield and high inventory, but the quality was poor. The market is gradually transitioning from the off-season to the peak season, but the inventory pressure remains, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. If the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend of jujubes may continue. Otherwise, the jujube futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [8]

矿端干扰使得铜价愈发易涨难跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货情况： 据SMM讯，2025-09-27当周，SMM1#电解铜平均价格运行于80010元/吨至82505元/吨，周中呈现走高的态势。SMM 升贴水报价运行于-5元/吨至60元/吨。库存方面，2025-09-27当周，LME库存变动-0.10万吨至14.44万吨，上期所库 存变化-0.70万吨至9.88万吨。国内社会库存（不含保税区）变化-0.44万吨至14.01万吨，保税区库存变动-0.14万吨 至7.54万吨。Comex库存上涨0.40吨至32.23万吨。 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 形成对于铜绝对价格的持续性利好，另外国内针对铜冶炼企业的反内卷措施也仍需关注后续具体实施情况，而对 于铜价而言，在临近国庆假期之际，若存在投机头寸仓位过重的情况则建议适当减仓，套保投资则可在80,500元/ 观点： 宏观方面，2025-09-27当周，美联储主席鲍威尔强调称当前政策风险具有双向性；而后美财长贝森特称其认为利率 水平仍然过高，需下调至少100至150个基点；而多位美联储官员也进一步表明了偏向鸽派的货币政策立场。但整 体看美联储未来的降息路径 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, domestic existing plant operations remain at a high level, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Pre - holiday downstream procurement and stocking were satisfactory, leading to a faster inventory reduction rate at ports and a continuous strengthening of the pure benzene basis. The downstream operations of pure benzene have rapidly recovered from the bottom, but the long - term procurement sustainability of MDI, PA6, and nylon filament after the holiday is questionable due to inventory pressure and poor BPA operations [4]. - For styrene, the operations of PS and EPS have declined, along with a decrease in提货. With concentrated EB arrivals, port inventories have accumulated again, and the EB basis has further weakened. EB operations will remain at a low level in the short term, and factory inventories have decreased. Overseas, the EB operations in Europe and the United States remain low, and the price difference between European and American EB and the Chinese market continues to be weak, limiting the upside potential of EB [4]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period There is no specific content provided in the text for this section. II. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 56,000 tons (+35,000). The overall styrene plant operating rate is 73.24% (-0.20%), with the operating rate in East China at 69.96% (-3.01%), in Shandong at 77.87% (-2.66%), and in South China at 69.50% (+12.87%) [1]. III. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS operating rate is 55.25% (-6.49%), PS operating rate is 59.10% (-2.10%), ABS operating rate is 70.00% (+0.20%), UPR operating rate is 33.00% (-1.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate is 70.43% (+0.00%). EPS sample enterprise inventory is 31,300 tons (-100), PS sample enterprise inventory is 89,360 tons (-360), ABS sample enterprise inventory is 243,600 tons (+4,900), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprise inventory is 20,500 tons (+600) [1]. IV. Styrene Inventory - Styrene inventory in East China ports is 186,500 tons (+27,500), and styrene factory inventory is 203,274 tons (-13,009) [1]. V. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports is 107,000 tons (-27,000). The pure benzene operating rate is 79.27% (+0.92%), and the hydro - benzene operating rate is 63.99% (+4.05%) [2]. VI. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - Caprolactam operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), and adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (-1.20%). In the CPL industry chain, CPL operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), CPL factory inventory is 50,000 tons (+2,000), PA6 operating rate is 76.04% (+0.25%), PA6 conventional spinning factory inventory days are 7 days (-1 day), nylon filament operating rate is 78.00% (+0.00%), and nylon filament factory inventory days are 34.5 days (+0.5 days). In the phenol - acetone industry chain, phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), Jiangyin phenol port inventory is 6,000 tons (-1,000), Jiangyin acetone port inventory is 24,500 tons (-4,500), bisphenol A operating rate is 65.93% (-2.91), PC operating rate is 81.27% (-2.63), and epoxy resin operating rate is 50.76% (-0.76). In the aniline industry chain, aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), polymer MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%), polymer MDI factory inventory is 71,000 tons (+2,000), pure MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%), and pure MDI factory inventory is 7,000 tons (+700). In the adipic acid industry chain, adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (-1.20%), spandex operating rate is 77.50% (+0.00%), spandex factory inventory days are 50 days (+0.00%), PA66 operating rate is 61.27% (+2.32%), and polyurethane elastomer operating rate is 52.29% (+1.02%) [2][3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for BZ, and conduct short - selling hedging for EB at high prices. - Basis and inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [10] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. Looking ahead, soybean oil may face supply pressure and its basis may be under pressure; palm oil is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October; rapeseed oil may face supply shortages after the National Day, and its basis is firm, with the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter expected to provide some support [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,236 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 yuan or 0.86%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 166 yuan or 1.99%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,162 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 94 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,190 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60 yuan or 0.65%, and the spot basis was P01 - 46, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 130 yuan or 1.53%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 218, a week-on-week increase of 36 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 90 yuan or 0.87%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 218, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. During the week of September 19 - 25, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, all with a shipment date of October, and 1 vessel was cancelled, with a shipment date of November [2] - Demand: As of the week of September 25, the trading volume of palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8,634 tons, an increase of 5,391 tons or 166.23% from the previous week [2] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 58.51 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.64 tons or 8.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.28 tons or 23.87% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month-on-month increase of 609,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January - August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 73.312 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4%. It is estimated that 10.3 million tons will arrive in September, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of vessels for the September - October shipment period has basically been completed, but the purchase progress for the November - January shipment period is slow [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil at key domestic oil mills was 75,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 15,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 17.58% [3] - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2359 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,300 tons or 1.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 105,700 tons or 9.35% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of September 19, the rapeseed crushing volume at coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. After the implementation of the anti-dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will generally face a shortage of raw materials after the National Day, leading to a shutdown wave in the industry. Currently, the market is pinning its hopes on the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed [4] - Demand: In September, the rigid demand brought by the start of the school term boosted the consumption of oils, and the market's pick-up pace significantly accelerated [5] - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory at coastal oil mills was 75,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - This week, the three major oils showed a slight divergence, with soybean oil and palm oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising slightly. The temporary exemption of export tariffs on agricultural products in Argentina at the beginning of the week led to a sharp decline in soybean oil prices, and palm oil was also dragged down. Rapeseed oil continued to perform strongly due to factors such as tight rapeseed supply, stagnant imports of Canadian rapeseed, and continuous destocking of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [5] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The supply pressure may continue, and the basis may face pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-US trade relations [6] - Palm oil: It is expected to continue destocking in the near term, but the basis may face pressure after October [7] - Rapeseed oil: After the National Day, it may face supply shortages, and the basis is firm. The traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter is expected to provide some support. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino-Canadian trade relations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].