Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is oscillating weakly with news of production cuts. The prices in the industry chain are oscillating downward as filament enterprises continue the third - round production cut plan and bottle - chip production may be further reduced [1] - The cost - side oil price is oscillating due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline and aromatics have limited upside in cracking spreads, and the blending demand is not promising. The supply of PX has recovered, and its spread has declined, but the spot market is still tight. The supply of PTA is becoming more abundant, and the polyester demand is weakening in the off - season [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Covers figures such as TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Shows the operation rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various polyester products, as well as the operation rates of related downstream industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [49][51][62] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers the load of polyester staple fibers, inventory days, and the operation rates and profits of related yarns [75][83][88] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes the load of polyester bottle - chips, inventory days, processing fees, and export profits [90][92][100]

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-09 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.70，环比变动为-0.08；持仓量PCR报0.94，环比变动为-0.01； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.76，环比变动为+0.04；持仓量PCR报0.83，环比变动为-0.02； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.84，环比变动为+0.04；持仓量PCR报1.23，环比变动为+0.01 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.31 ，环比变动为+0.39；持仓量PCR报0.89；环比变动为+0.03； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.94，环比变动为+0.05 ；持仓量PCR报0.84，环比变动为-0.02； 上证50股指期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.06；持仓量PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.01； 沪深300股指期权成交额PCR报0.59 ，环比变动为+0.02；持仓量PCR报0.67，环比变动为+0.00； 中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报0.90，环比变动为+0.02；持仓量PCR报0.98，环比变动为-0.01。 期权VIX 上证50ETF期权VIX报13.97 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-09 贵金属板块成交6422.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+89.92%；持仓金额4677.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.33%；成 交持仓比为168.08%。 能源化工板块成交3966.49亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.25%；持仓金额3683.17亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.03%；成 交持仓比为87.85%。 农产品板块成交3265.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+40.97%；持仓金额5253.12亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.97%；成 交持仓比为56.29%。 黑色建材板块成交2864.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+29.09%；持仓金额3392.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.04%； 成交持仓比为91.15%。 市场流动性概况 2025-06-06，股指板块成交3242.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.77%；持仓金额9299.04亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.09%；成交持仓比为34.72%。 国债板块成交2831.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.39%；持仓金额7924.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.10%；成交 持仓比为36.21%。 基本金属板块成交2608 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-06 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-06-05，上证50ETF期权成交量为59.75万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为58.03万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为104.25万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为3.40万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为78.43万张；上证50股指期权成交量为1.47万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为4.87万张；中证1000期权总成交量为16.35万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.78，环比变动为-0.03；持仓量PCR报0.95，环比变动为-0.02； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.72，环比变动为-0.06；持仓量PCR报0.85，环比变动为+0.00； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.79，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报1.22，环比变动为+0.04 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.92 ，环比变动为+0.00；持仓量PCR报0.86；环比变动为-0.01； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.89，环比变动为-0.07 ；持仓量PC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 商品情绪好转，需注意空单止盈平仓引发风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-05，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7200元/吨，最后收于7135元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-40） 元/吨，变化（-0.56）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓183965手，2025-06-06仓单总数为61309手，较前一日变化 -494手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9200 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。 SMM统计6月5日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库13.5万吨， 较上周环比增加0.1万吨，社会交割仓库45.2万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.3万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周国内DMC报价11300-11600元/ 吨，均价较上周小幅下降50元/吨 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-06 PTA跟随成本震荡运行 市场要闻与数据 周四PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差反弹。贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂补货。周度聚酯 负荷表现平稳小跌。 市场分析 成本端，近期市场关注OPEC+增产及地缘变化，油价震荡运行。 汽油和芳烃方面，当前欧美和新加坡汽油裂解价差季节性有反弹，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价 差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以 满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利 润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN262美元/吨(环比变动+0.00美元/吨）。近期国内外PX负荷整体提升，一方面是集中检修 期陆续结束，另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复，PXN有所回落，不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张，关 注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 216 元/吨(环比变动+19元/吨），PT ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-06 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4747元/吨（-87）；华东基差-97元/吨（+87）;华南基差3元/吨（+72）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4650元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（-15）。 烧碱厂库延续下降，PVC社库去化速率放缓 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润80元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-547元/吨（+74）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-505元/吨（+11）；PVC出口利润5.2美元/吨（-2.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.5万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存36.3万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率79.90%（+4.19%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.13%（-0.58%）；PVC开工率77.47%（+2.87%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量54.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2332元/吨（-35）；山东32%液碱基差418元/吨（+35）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价880元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-06 富查伊拉燃料油库存大幅下滑 市场分析 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：关注逢高空FU裂解价差（FU-SC或FU-Brent）的机会，短期支撑偏强，尽量逢高布局 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.1%，报2934元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.63%，报3489 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后强势反弹，短期基本面较为稳固，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的 压力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，近日高硫燃料油市场结构有边际转弱的迹象，裂解基差从绝对高位出现一定幅度回落。 但目前来看，市场支撑仍存。随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，或提振亚洲高硫油市场氛围。 参考普式数据，富查伊拉燃料油库存本周录得723.8万桶，环比前一周下跌24.56%。富查伊拉的大幅去库背后，可 能是来自于中东发电厂的采购需求增长。中期来看，由于高硫油裂解价差过高，下游炼厂 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 现货价格维稳，关注宏观情绪影响 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-05日沪镍主力合约2507开于122200元/吨，收于121570元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.43%，当日成交量 为102375手，持仓量为85713手。 沪镍主力合约2507全天偏弱震荡，日线收小阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所减少，持仓量有小幅 增加。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积在缓慢缩窄，且开始出现红柱面积，短周期内或许下跌趋势接近 尾声，60分钟线在5月26日的122000附近出现底背离现象，但端午节前的大幅下探击穿底背离的支撑位，关注上方 122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方关注120000整数关口附近短线支撑位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价 较上个交易日下调375元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，盘面虽有反弹 迹象，但市场观望态度居多，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近 期处于相对平稳的态势。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2450元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至350元 ...