轮胎厂开工率环比下降 市场要闻与数据 化工日报 | 2025-06-06 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13545元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。NR主力合约11965元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13500元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13500元/吨， 较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1690美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1630美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11200元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，印尼前4个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口58.6万吨，同比增加15%；合计出 口到中国13万吨，同比增282%。2025年前5个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计629,672吨，较2024年同期的583,437吨 增加7.9%。 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年5月份，我国重卡市场共计销售8.3万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新 能源），环比今 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-06 市场流动性概况 2025-06-05，股指板块成交3991.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.72%；持仓金额9595.98亿元，较上一交易日变动 +3.45%；成交持仓比为41.36%。 国债板块成交3469.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.74%；持仓金额7762.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.86%；成交 持仓比为44.90%。 基本金属板块成交1850.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.00%；持仓金额3742.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.36%；成 交持仓比为71.20%。 贵金属板块成交3381.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.50%；持仓金额4526.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.88%；成交 持仓比为61.83%。 能源化工板块成交4186.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.12%；持仓金额3681.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.33%；成 交持仓比为91.70%。 农产品板块成交2316.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.76%；持仓金额5202.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.57%；成 交持仓比为39.73%。 黑色建材板块成交2219.3 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 周度库存与产量小幅增长，需注意减仓引发波动 市场分析 2025年6月5日，碳酸锂主力合约2505开于60500元/吨，收于60100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为244592手，持仓量为231588手，较前一交易日减少14062手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳100 元/吨。所有合约总持仓578419手，较前一交易日减少321手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少255341手，成交 量减少，整体投机度为0.49。当日碳酸锂仓单33321手，较上个交易日减少140手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月5日电池级碳酸锂报价5.94-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.81-5.91万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。据SMM数据，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持 续下移。5月下旬碳酸锂期货价格的阶段性反弹为非一体化锂盐厂提供了关键的套期保值机会，刺激6月供应端存 在恢复性增量预期，6月碳酸锂呈现供增需稳，过剩格局仍将持续。叠加港口锂矿石库存压力导致原料价格大幅下 跌，成本支撑减弱 ...

Report Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - Market confidence has improved after the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States on June 5th. Before July, the macro - situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - Trump's tariff policies are inconsistent. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump later announced to raise the steel import tariff. The Trump administration has issued an emergency letter, asking countries to submit the best trade negotiation plan before June 4th [2] - There are potential liquidity risks in the US. Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating. The US debt is expected to rise, and the "sell US" trade is heating up. In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered, and short - term energy is in a game around the fact of production increase [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's export was slightly better than expected, with re - export being a significant support. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both increased, with land transfer fees supporting the revenue. Consumption was under pressure. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1, but corporate profit was under pressure due to rising costs and falling selling prices. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the leaders of the two countries had a phone call, improving market confidence [1] Tariff Policies - On May 28th, the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped. On May 30th, Trump announced to raise the steel import tariff from 25% to 50%, effective on June 4th. The Trump administration has asked countries to submit trade negotiation plans before June 4th, or face high - penalty measures. Different countries have different responses to US tariffs [2] Risk and Market Outlook - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt is expected to rise, leading to an increase in the "sell US" trade. The eurozone's May composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 5th. The US May Markit PMI improved to some extent, but the ADP employment number in May was far lower than expected. The US House of Representatives' tax clause in the "Big Beautiful Act" may escalate the trade war into a capital war [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. The price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. In the energy market, OPEC decided to increase production, but the actual production has not increased as of early June. Gold should be watched for low - level opportunities [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Important News - On June 5th, the European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2%, the main refinancing rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.4%. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US new restrictions on China, opposing the US 301 tariffs. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1. Trump has restricted the entry of citizens from some countries and the visas of foreign students at Harvard University [6]

油料日报 | 2025-06-06 国产大豆需求平淡，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4138.00元/吨，较前日变化+15.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+42，较前日变化-15，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第二个交易日收盘上涨，基准期约收高0.4%，主要 受到逢低买盘和技术性买盘的推动。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨3.25美分到5美分不等，其中7月期约上涨4.25美分， 报收1045美分/蒲式耳;8月期约上涨4.50美分，报收1038.75美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨3.50美分，报收1025美分/蒲式 耳。6月5日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-06 美豆价格回升，豆粕区间震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2958元/吨，较前日变动+19元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2509合约2567元/吨，较前 日变动+24元/吨，幅度+0.94%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M09+-108，较前日变动-29；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-178，较前日变动-19； 广东地区豆粕现货价格2770元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-188，较前日变动-29。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09-87，较前日变动-24。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，2025年6月巴西大豆出口量预计为1255万吨，低于5月份的1420万 吨，也低于去年同期的1383万吨。ANEC预计2025年巴西大豆出口量可能高达1.1亿吨，比2024年增加1300万吨， 超过2023年历史峰值1.013亿吨。 市场分析 国内方面，近几月处于巴西大豆到港的高峰期，国内大豆通 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-06 下游库存再度累积 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存14.50万吨（+0.20万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费159美元/吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费142美元/吨（+0美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差42.5美元/吨（-1.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-40元/吨（+20元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差355元/吨（-5元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润146元/吨（-1元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存89100吨（+14500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存70500吨（+18900吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率72.3%（+0.3%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润384元/吨（+10元/吨），PS生产利润-246元/吨（-20元/吨），ABS生产利润166元/吨（+6 元/吨）。EPS开工率46.42%（-12.25%），PS开工率59.20%（-2.60%），ABS开工率64.02%（+1.70%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯检修峰值已过，开工逐步回升，港口库存连续快速回升，港口基差回落后盘整，偏高的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Treasury bond futures shows a weak and volatile pattern, with most yields rising, reflecting the adjustment sentiment after the market's positive factors are exhausted. The short - term interest bonds declined briefly due to the central bank's continuous net injection and loose liquidity before the end of the month. However, concerns about the weakening of allocation demand increased, and long - term yields stopped falling and rebounded. The market's optimistic sentiment was boosted by the US International Trade Court's "halt" of multiple tariff measures by the Trump administration, which increased global risk appetite and suppressed the demand for hedging, causing the yields of interest - rate bonds to rise from mid - week to the weekend, and Treasury bond futures to decline under pressure. Subsequently, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals approved the temporary resumption of the halted tariff policies, leading to a collective rise in Treasury bonds and Treasury bond futures. Overall, short - term wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and policy signals [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.74, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 (-0.08%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1806, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.013 (-0.18%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 (-0.58%); DR007 was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-0.26%); R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.66, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 (-1.48%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-1.48%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.72 yuan, and 119.31 yuan respectively. The fluctuations of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.04%, 0.02%, - 0.01%, and - 0.16% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.107 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, and 0.134 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 126.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repurchase Rates**: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.408%, 1.534%, 1.591%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data in figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, etc., but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [35]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TS main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures about the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TF main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers figures on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the T main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [63]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures including the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TL main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [72]. 4. Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot premium has weakened due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while the supply pressure is clear and the upside of zinc prices is difficult to break through. Although low inventory supports zinc prices, there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$29.28 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 60 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 55 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 22,770 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 35 yuan/ton to 375 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 75 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 5, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton and closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,875 lots, a decrease of 22,590 lots, and the open interest was 124,586 lots, an increase of 642 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,255 - 22,450 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 5, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,300 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, an increase of 875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The spot premium weakened due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The port inventory of ore and the raw material inventory of smelters are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are still high [4] - **Supply**: The supply growth expectation in June has returned to around 10%, and high - speed supply growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year, putting pressure on the upside of zinc prices [4] - **Consumption**: The impact of Sino - US tariffs on consumption has not yet appeared, and consumption is supported by pre - export rush and low inventory. However, there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3,497 yuan/ton, down 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 85,190 lots, a decrease of 4,256 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 133,237 lots, a decrease of 63,289 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,800 - 4,091 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,470 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,400 - 3,450 yuan/ton in South China; 3,580 - 3,650 yuan/ton in East China [1]. - Crude oil prices rebounded oscillatingly this week, consolidating the cost support for asphalt. Spot prices remained stable overall, with some major refineries in certain regions raising the asphalt settlement price, boosting the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. The futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - The asphalt market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. Terminal demand was generally poor. In June, the temperature in northern regions was suitable for some infrastructure projects to start construction, but there was a lack of supra - seasonal growth momentum. In southern regions, the rainy season hindered road construction and restricted asphalt terminal consumption [1]. - Currently, the increase in market supply was limited. The overall operating rate and inventory were at low levels. With cost support, market pressure was limited, but the weak improvement in demand restricted the market's upward space [1]. Group 3: Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [2] - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 (positive spread) at low levels [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 4: Figures and Their Units - Figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China) are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10] - Figures showing the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, as well as the near - month spread, are provided, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][18][21] - Figures showing the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures (unilateral and main contract) are provided, with the unit of lots [3][23] - Figures showing the production volume of domestic asphalt (weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions like Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][29][31] - Figures showing the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][37][38] - Figures showing the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (according to Longzhong data) are provided, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39]