Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been in a range - bound market recently, with no obvious short - term contradictions and event drivers. However, due to the extremely high crude oil inventory in China, the risk of price decline is accumulating. The market has different understandings of China's continuous increase in crude oil inventory. The core issue is that although the current monthly spread structure does not support arbitrage through oil storage, it cannot be disproven whether the inventory build - up is from SPR. The absorption capacity of SPR has a limit, and crude oil imports will eventually need to match the growth rate of crude oil processing volume and refined oil demand [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6 cents to $65.25 per barrel, a decrease of 0.09%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 8 cents to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 0.12%. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 0.42% to 506 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.525 million barrels, an increase of 971,000 barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 597,000 barrels to 7.985 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory decreased by 393,000 barrels to 2.2 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 767,000 barrels to 10.34 million barrels [1] - Representatives from Iran, Russia, and China held talks in Tehran on Tuesday to discuss the Iranian nuclear program. China advocates resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through political and diplomatic means and will continue to play a constructive role [1] - For the week ending July 18 in the United States, the EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.565 million barrels and a previous value of - 3.859 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 455,000 barrels, with a previous value of 213,000 barrels. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was - 200,000 barrels, with a previous value of - 300,000 barrels [1] Investment Logic - The oil price is in a range - bound market recently. The risk of price decline is accumulating due to high Chinese crude oil inventory. There are different views on China's inventory build - up, and the key is that SPR's absorption capacity is limited, and imports should match processing volume and demand [2] Strategy - The oil price will have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks include the relaxation of Iranian oil sanctions and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-24 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：前期空FU裂解价差（FU-Brent或FU-SC）头寸可适当止盈 跨期：前期FU反套头寸可逐步止盈 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 俄罗斯7月高硫燃料油发货量回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.69%，报2879元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.28%，报3565 元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对FU、LU短期方向指引有限，中期则面临平衡表转松的下行压力。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，目前基本面缺乏亮点，近期市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端 供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。近期伊朗和俄罗斯高硫燃料油发货量都出现一定增加态势。其中，俄罗斯7月发货 量预计在237万吨，环比6月增加47万吨，同比去年提升22万吨。但往前看，我们认为高硫燃料油结构性利好因素 并未完全消退，如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-24 市场分析 1、\t7月23日地区价格：山东市场，4520-4670；东北市场，4190-4380；华北市场，4530-4680；华东市场，4330-4600； 沿江市场，4500-4660；西北市场，4050-4200；华南市场，4548-4700。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷542美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷524美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4261元/吨，涨13元/吨，丁烷4120元/吨，涨13元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷536美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷521美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4214元/吨，涨13元/吨，丁烷4096元/吨，涨13元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG基本面当前表现疲软，市场氛围平淡，PG主力合约连续走低，再度跌破4000元/吨，需等待盘面企稳止跌信号。 现货方面，昨日国内液化气市场窄幅整理，华南地区缩小价差，低位上涨带动重心小幅上移，华中地区受外围弱 势牵制，价格回调，整体波动幅度有限。就LPG ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面走势转弱，沥青现货延续跌势 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 市场分析 1、7月23日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3594元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.47%；持仓198184手，环比下降5747手，成交201956手，环比下跌36618手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 近日原油价格连续回调，BU盘面走势也明显转弱。除了基准油价的回调外，稀释沥青原料供应增加的预期也对沥 青成本端形成一定压制。昨日华北以及山东市场沥青现货价格均有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主， 整体情绪一般。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存处于低位，市场短期压力有限但上行驱动 不足，需要等待新的变量兑现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are fluctuating with a slight upward trend. The glass and soda ash markets have stable spot sales, but their futures opened high and closed low. The double - silicon market has firm spot prices and is operating steadily [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is basically stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, with significant de - stocking pressure. In the long run, supply and demand are still relatively loose [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures also opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream transactions are stable, with a wait - and - see attitude. Supply has both复产 and maintenance, with output remaining stable month - on - month. In the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to stay low. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken further, and there is great annual inventory pressure [1]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market trading atmosphere is active, and the overall price is firm. The 6517 grade in the northern market is priced at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton. Production is stable, and demand has resilience due to the recovery of hot metal production. However, high - level inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices. The Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered, and prices fluctuate with the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures fluctuated with a slight upward trend yesterday. The market sentiment is good, and the rising futures drive up the spot price. The 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is priced at 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Production has increased month - on - month, while demand has slightly decreased. Inventories are at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the rising coal price boosts the valuation. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 4: Strategies Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight downward trend [2]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面振幅放大，需关注交易风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-23，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨后回落，主力合约2509开于9810元/吨，最后收于9525元/吨，较前一日结算 变化（55）元/吨，变化（0.58）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓334776手，2025-07-23仓单总数为50106手，较 前一日变化53手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9900-10100（300）元/吨；421#硅在10100-10400 （300）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格9400-9600（400）元/吨，99硅价格在9400-9500（400）元/吨，现货价格继续上调。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11600-12500（0）元/吨。据SMM了解，今日国内山东淄博地区前期事故 单体企业80万吨单体产能全部进入停车，此次停车时长不定，国内供应减量加剧。 策略 焦煤价格继续上涨，反内卷政策等仍有一定扰动，导致期货情绪仍偏强，短期盘面或仍偏强运行。后续需关注盘 面上涨后西南开工变化及西北复产情况，若反弹较多，可择机卖出套保。 ...

Report Summary Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,500 yuan/ton and closed at 69,380 yuan/ton, a -4.07% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, and the open interest was 362,054 lots, down from 411,638 lots the previous day. The basis was -2,470 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 10,754 lots, a change of 665 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 - 72,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,300 - 69,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 770 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material factories have low price acceptance, leading to a widening price gap between upstream and downstream. The market transactions are mainly between upstream lithium salt factories and traders, and downstream material enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude except for a small amount of rigid procurement, resulting in light trading volume [1]. Strategy - The sharp decline in the futures market was mainly affected by the cooling of overall commodity and capital sentiment and news of a mining end loosening. The outcome of the lithium mine suspension is still unknown. In the short - term, news and warehouse receipt games have a significant impact, so risk management is recommended. If the mining end disturbances weaken in the future, the upstream can sell hedging in the far - month contracts [2]. - For unilateral trading, sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [2]. - There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

油料日报 | 2025-07-24 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 大豆花生市场偏淡，新旧衔接推进 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4217.00元/吨，较前日变化-15.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+83，较前日变化+15，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场今日大豆价格暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货冲高回落，当前大豆季节性淡季已至，上下游货物流通不畅，市场购销活动较为清淡，国产大豆缺 乏推动其变动的因素。中储粮在周一的拍卖之后，将于本周五再次开展双向拍卖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices are mainly driven by macro - logic. With a relatively low valuation, prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern under the influence of a warm market atmosphere. The future trend depends on the change of the macro - atmosphere [4] - Fundamentally, domestic latex profit is better than that of making dry rubber from glue. Affected by rainfall in domestic main - producing areas, the increase of full - latex is slow, and raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, heavy rainfall in the northeast has made cup - rubber prices strong, and the price gap between glue and cup - rubber has continued to narrow. Rainy weather will continue to disrupt raw material output in the short term. With the slowdown of arrivals in China in July, the pressure of supply increase is limited. The profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, reducing the import pressure in China. Downstream demand remains stable without substantial highlights. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, rubber prices are expected to continue the rebound trend, and the focus will be on the substantial improvement of the demand side in the future [5] - For BR, the butadiene rubber plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart this week, so the supply shows a month - on - month increase. After the previous maintenance of downstream tire factories, the operating rate has rebounded, but it is difficult to continue to rise without bright spots in terminal demand. The supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber is weak. Currently, the price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and there is still support for downstream substitution demand. The future focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,005 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,775 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period of 2024. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, in June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 55 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 405 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 5,652 yuan/ton (+16.01), the NR basis was 151.00 yuan/ton (+0.00); the price of full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,500 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 66.37 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup - rubber was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (- 6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 928 yuan/ton (- 88) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,850 tons (- 800) [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-24 早熟果价高于同期，红枣销区少量到货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7956元/吨，较前一日变动+27元/吨，幅度+0.34%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-56，较前一日变动-27；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1644，较前一日变动-27。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情整体偏稳运行，库存旧季货源交易氛围一般，西部产区货源剩余不多，部分冷库对 水烂点货源存急售心理，现货商发自存货源为主，早熟果纸袋秦阳陆续上市交易。山东产区客商拿货仍显谨慎， 多挑拣拿货。剩余货源结构多以中大果居多，走货不快。销区市场需求不佳，近期南方销区台风多雨天气，走货 不快。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果 农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5- ...