Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a significant impact on US biodiesel production. The adjustment of the tax credit policy in 2025 has significantly reduced the import volume of Chinese UCO. From January to July this year, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Due to the US bonded area policy, some imports of Chinese UCO will continue. The reduction in US biomass diesel production will increase US petroleum diesel demand by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.70% at 440 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 623,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to 2.947 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 215,000 barrels to 6.135 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global energy demand is growing, Russia has the potential to further increase oil production, but currently has no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and trade wars pose risks to energy supply [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will impose targeted sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told the Saudi energy minister that joint actions within the framework of OPEC+ are in the long - term national interests of both countries and will strongly promote the economic development of both countries [1] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a major impact on US biodiesel production. The 2025 tax credit policy adjustment has reduced Chinese UCO imports. From January to July, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Some imports will continue due to the bonded area policy. US petroleum diesel demand will increase by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the impact of negative factors on the decline of aluminum prices is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 15, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was 30 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 15, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,830 yuan/ton, closed at 20,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,940 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 82,102 lots, and the position was 148,539 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 71,394 tons, a change of 8,218 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 498,975 tons, a change of - 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,105 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 15, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,797 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.36%. The highest price was 2,818 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,782 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 241,190 lots, and the position was 361,466 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the decline of aluminum prices due to negative factors is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering, with the proportion of molten aluminum reaching a new high [6]. Alumina - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic financial data shows overall stability in volume, but the structure needs optimization [3]. - There is still significant uncertainty in trade frictions. However, news of technological breakthroughs in domestic technology sub - sectors drove the market to rebound, but under the background of reduced overall trading volume, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices may continue the pattern of oscillating digestion in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Financial Aggregate Data**: Domestically, at the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 spread hit a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan year - on - year. Regarding Sino - US relations, the US stated that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions, and China urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China also opposed the EU's attempt to force Chinese enterprises to transfer technology [1]. - **Index Rebound**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to close at 3912.21 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. Most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries leading the gains, while only the steel and petroleum and petrochemical industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq rising 0.66% to 22670.08 points [1]. - **Technological Breakthroughs**: At the 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecology Expo, China's self - developed 90GHz real - time oscilloscope was officially released, and two domestic electronic engineering EDA design software with independent intellectual property rights were launched for the first time [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, on the day of the delivery of the current - month contract this Friday, the basis of IC and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Based on domestic financial data, the overall volume remains stable, but the structure needs optimization. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions and the reduced trading volume, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices may continue to oscillate in the short term [3]. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][9][11]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on October 15, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [15]. - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. The basis of IC and IM increased on the day [39]. - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, with various changes in spreads [43][45]. - There are also multiple charts showing the open interest, open interest ratio, and basis trends of different stock index futures contracts [6][16][19]

油脂日报 | 2025-10-16 马棕出口数据亮眼，给油脂一定支撑 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9322.00元/吨，环比变化-8元，幅度-0.09%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8252.00元 /吨，环比变化+12.00元，幅度+0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9932.00元/吨，环比变化-27.00元，幅度-0.27%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9210.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.65%，现货基差P01+-112.00，环比变化 -52.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8430.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y01+178.00， 环比变化-22.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10240.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.19%，现货基差 OI01+308.00，环比变化+7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：巴西地理与统计研究所（IBGE）10月月报显示，预计今年巴西大豆总种植面积为4770万公顷， 较上个月预计的4767万公顷增加0.1%，较去年的4604万公顷增加3.6%；预计产量为1.65866 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 市场分析 2025-10-15，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73000元/吨，收于72720元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.60%。当日 成交量为225238手，持仓量为188523手，前一交易日持仓量192931手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-20元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单33076手，较上个交易日变化-2104手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72400-73600元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价 70150-71350元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格818美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。据SMM数据， 下游材料厂观望情绪渐浓，市场整体成交活跃度一般。供应方面，锂辉石端和盐湖端均有新产线投产，预计10月 碳酸锂总产量仍具备增长潜力。需求方面，动力市场新能源汽车商用乘用同时快速增长；储能市场供需两旺。整 体来看，10月供应虽稳步增长，形成阶段性供应偏紧态势。 9月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为151.2GWh，环比增长8.3%，同比增长35.4%。1-9月，我国动力和其他电池 累计产 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-16 美国政府继续停摆 贵金属维持强势 市场分析 IMF发布最新一期《财政监测报告》指出，到2029年，全球公共债务规模预计将首次突破GDP的100%；IMF警告 称如果当前财政支出与债务增长趋势得不到遏制，全球金融稳定性可能面临严重威胁。美国政府方面，美国参议 院以51票对44票的投票结果，再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案；据悉，需要60票才能推进这项将为政府提供 资金直至11月底的法案。美联储方面，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰最新表示，近期的贸易紧张局势加大了经济增长前 景的不确定性，因此决策者更有必要尽快降息。 2025-10-15，沪金主力合约开于937.50元/克，收于960.34元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动2.27%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于962.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.18%。 2025-10-15，沪银主力合约开于11430.00元/千克，收于11966.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.75%。当日成交 量为2033514手，持仓量为477807手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, with high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut and relatively stable fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation trend for the nickel futures contract [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand, stainless - steel prices are also projected to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,761 (-26,323) lots, and the open interest was 68,681 (-4,426) lots. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut led to a weak oscillation trend under stable fundamentals [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. Sea freight declined due to reduced shipping demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, while some northern Chinese factories started "winter storage". The Indonesian nickel ore market had a continuous supply - surplus pattern, and the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market selling price was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was cold, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 26,558 (+1,531) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 246,756 (+3,498) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 113,216 (-37,540) lots, and the open interest was 193,490 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a weak - oscillation trend, and price decline was due to the game between cost support and weak demand [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained cautious, and spot trading was light with stable spot premiums. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 455 - 755 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The recommended single - side strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-10-16 反弹驱动不足，板块低位震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13270元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14513元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨，现货基差CF01+1243，较前一日变动-90；3128B棉全国均价14674元/吨， 较前一日变动-81元/吨，现货基差CF01+1404，较前一日变动-86。 近期市场资讯，根据巴西国家商品供应公司（CONAB）消息，因巴西2024/25年度（对应USDA2025/26年度）棉花 单产略有提高，因此总产预期小幅上修至 407.7 万吨。据CONAB首次发布2025/26年度（对应USDA2026/27年度） 棉花总产预测数据，2025/26年度巴西全国植棉面积预期在213.8万公顷（约3207万亩），同比（3129万亩）增加2.5%； 全国单产预期在125.7公斤/亩，同比（130.3公斤/亩）减少3.5%。基于此，2025/26年度巴西棉花总产预期在403.1 万吨，同比（407.7万吨）减少1.1%。 市场分析 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价窄幅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is cautiously bearish, with a short - term recommendation of waiting and seeing [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On October 15, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.1% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 82,783 lots, a decrease of 16,325 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 112,815 lots, an increase of 12,090 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,320 - 3,670 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,350 - 3,550 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,450 - 3,550 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices in the Northwest, Northeast, and East China remained relatively stable, while those in other regions declined to varying degrees [1] - The overall rigid demand for asphalt was weak, and the actual trading volume in the spot market was average. The peak - season characteristics on the demand side were not obvious. With the downward shift of oil prices and the weak fundamentals of asphalt itself, the market was driven downward, causing the asphalt futures prices to decline continuously. Considering the uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects, crude oil prices may fluctuate repeatedly and disrupt the asphalt market [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The asphalt futures prices declined, and the open interest decreased while the trading volume increased. The spot prices in most regions dropped, and the demand was weak, leading to a downward - driven market [1] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish and wait and see in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Figures - There are multiple figures showing various data related to asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures contract prices (index, main, and near - month), trading volume and open interest, production volume (domestic weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions), consumption volume (road, waterproof, coking, and ship - fuel), and inventory volume (refinery and social) [3]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-16 周中苯乙烯港口库存仍未见去化 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差46元/吨（+13）。纯苯港口库存9.00万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费135美元/吨（-1 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费120美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差80.5美元/吨（+4.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货 -M2价差50元/吨（+10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1830元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-526元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润478元/吨（+140）， 己二酸生产利润-1288元/吨（+5）。己内酰胺开工率96.00%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-1.00%），苯胺开工率 77.16%（+1.12%），己二酸开工率66.90%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差0元/吨（-41元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-588元/吨（-42元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存196500吨（-5400吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存121500吨（+5100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.6%（+2.4 ...