Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Group 2: Core Views - The escalation of the Sino - US tariff trade war has led to a decline in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum, increasing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, narrowing the spot discount, and rising overseas premiums. The tariff increase has little impact on the aluminum supply - demand fundamentals, with China's aluminum exports rising in September. Overseas macro - positive factors remain, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The domestic and overseas alumina spot markets have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side games. The supply of domestic ore in the north is tight, and there is production reduction in Shanxi. The alumina fundamentals show no signs of improvement, but the price is undervalued, and risks increase as the Guinea referendum approaches [7][8]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: On October 14, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,900 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,840 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: The main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,885 yuan/ton and closed at 20,860 yuan/ton on October 14, 2025, with no change from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,035 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,845 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,426 lots, and the open interest was 159,179 lots [2]. - Inventory: As of October 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, with a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 63,176 tons, with a change of 25 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 503,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On October 14, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,905 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,870 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,930 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,115 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: The main alumina contract opened at 2,817 yuan/ton and closed at 2,805 yuan/ton on October 14, 2025, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,829 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 233,289 lots, and the open interest was 356,373 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On October 14, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [9]. - Arbitrage strategy: Long - short spread trading on SHFE aluminum [9]

宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告。（2） 通胀：8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：8月末，M2同比增长8.8%，M1同比回升至6%，剪刀差连续收窄，显示资金活性增强，企业经 营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元，社融增量累计26.56万亿元，政府债券融资占比高企，反映企 业中长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of polyolefins remain in a loose pattern, and the polyolefin market continues to be weak. For PE, post - holiday inventory accumulation, weakened cost support from falling crude oil, and new device production increases drive the price down. For PP, it is mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the cost support is weak [1][2][3]. - Suggested strategies include cautious short - selling hedging for both L and PP in the single - side trading; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 reverse spreads in the inter - period trading; and narrowing the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high in the inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6918 yuan/ton (-65), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6602 yuan/ton (-91). The LL North China spot price is 6970 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot price is 7000 yuan/ton (-80), and the PP East China spot price is 6640 yuan/ton (-30). The LL North China basis is 52 yuan/ton (+35), the LL East China basis is 82 yuan/ton (-15), and the PP East China basis is 38 yuan/ton (+61) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%). PE oil - based production profit is 461.2 yuan/ton (-81.6), PP oil - based production profit is -188.8 yuan/ton (-81.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is 110.3 yuan/ton (+209.4) [1]. 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins No specific data analysis provided in the given text. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL import profit is -28.2 yuan/ton (-39.0), PP import profit is -524.0 yuan/ton (+23.8), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1]. 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 35.6% (+2.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.9% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. For PP, there is an expectation of inventory digestion after the holiday, and traders are actively selling at discounted prices [2][3].

原油日报 | 2025-10-15 IEA月报预测明年油市面临大幅过剩 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌79美分，收于每桶58.70美元，跌幅为1.33%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌93美分，收于每桶62.39美元，跌幅为1.47%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.73%，报444元/桶。 2、 俄罗斯的海运原油出口量在过去四周升至28个月高点，受产量上升及乌克兰对俄炼油厂的袭击影响，部分原 油被迫转向出口终端。根据外媒编制的船舶追踪数据，截至10月12日的四周内，俄罗斯港口的原油出口四周平均 值为每日374万桶，为2023年6月以来最高水平。近期乌克兰无人机对俄炼油厂的袭击加剧，自8月初以来，至少发 生28起袭击事件，而今年前七个月总计为21起。由于部分原油因袭击无法被加工，很可能被转运至波罗的海与黑 海港口出口。来自普里莫尔斯克、乌斯季卢加与新罗西斯克三港的出货在最新四周平均为每日230万桶。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、 IEA月报显示，随着大量原油运输船驶向全球主要的石油交易和储存中心，全球石油库存即将回升，石油市场 面临的供应过剩局面将比先前预期更 ...

航运日报 | 2025-10-15 马士基WEEK44周报价开出，期货合约交易限额调整今日生 效 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹43周报价1095/1830，44周报价1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 10月下半月价格 1185/1935；11月上半月价格1535/2535，11月下半月船期报价1735/2835。HPL发布最新涨价函，10月15日之后运价 涨至1200/2000；马士基发布11月份涨价函，11月3日之后价格涨至1625/2500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065；ONE 10月下半月价格1175/1835；HMM上海-鹿特 丹10月下半月价格1118/1806; YML 10/15-10/31报价1000/1700。MSC发布11/1-11/15日涨价函 1620/2700。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格介于2020-2242美元/FEU，11月上半月船期报价1566/2731；EMC 10月下半月船期报价1355/2060，11月第一周船 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13265元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨，幅度-0.26%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14598元/吨，较前一日变动-44元/吨，现货基差CF01+1333，较前一日变动-9；3128B棉全国均价14755元/吨， 较前一日变动-34元/吨，现货基差CF01+1490，较前一日变动+1。 近期市场资讯，近期巴基斯坦棉区持续高温干燥，白天最高气温在35℃左右，短期内干热天气模式还将持续。晴 好天气助力采摘进度加快，部分地区已临近收尾。预计10月籽棉集中上市，11月后上市量将明显回落。旁遮普省 棉农反映单产偏低，信德省则反馈尚可。因此，巴基斯坦总产预期维持在93.0-100.8万吨。近期新棉籽棉价格走低， 成交价根据质量不同在6000-7800卢比/40公斤不等。 市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-10-15 郑糖跟随外盘下跌，棉价走势依旧趋弱 棉花观点 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘白糖2601合约5397元/吨，较前一日变动-73元/吨，幅度-1.33%。现货方面，广西南宁地区 白糖现货价格5 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-10-15 成本端坍塌继续拖累丙烯盘面下行 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6084元/吨（-93），丙烯华东现货价6215元/吨（+30），丙烯华北现货价6280元/吨（+70）， 丙烯华东基差131元/吨（+123），丙烯华北基差196元/吨（+163）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石 脑油CFR208美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR131美元/吨（+24），进口利润-423元/吨（-71），厂内库存43390 吨（-1520）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（+2.29%），生产利润-110元/吨（-125）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润 -344元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润41元/吨（-147）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润103 元/吨（-54）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1187元/吨（-21）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-752元 /吨（-99）；酚酮开工率78%（-1%），生产利润-526元/吨（+92）。 市场分析 供应端，节中利华益维远和河 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester industry chain is weak due to the continuation of the China - US game. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the market is affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, production capacity changes, and demand trends [2][3][5]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging, long PF processing fees at low levels, and conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. on October 14, 2025, in response to the US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1]. Market Analysis - **Cost Side**: During the China - US trade war, the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. Crude oil prices dropped sharply due to the renewed tariff war threat from the US, but there were some signs of easing later [2]. - **PX**: China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level. With the restart of overseas units, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponement of PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some units have weakened the PX supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter [2][5]. - **TA**: The PTA spot processing fee has been repaired but is still suppressed. The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new - unit launches, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [3][5]. - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (unchanged from the previous period). The demand for filament yarn improved before the National Day, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement needs attention [3]. - **PF**: The spot production profit is 300 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials [4]. - **PR**: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - grade chips is 509 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - grade chip factories has increased, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the pressure of new - unit launches [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging [5]. - **Cross - Variety**: Long PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [6]. - **Cross - Period**: Conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [6]. Graphical Data - **Price and Basis**: Includes TA and PX contract price trends, basis, and cross - period spreads [10][11]. - **Upstream Profits and Spreads**: Covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, and South Korean xylene isomerization and disproportionation profits [17][20]. - **International Spreads and Import - Export Profits**: Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene - naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [25][27]. - **Upstream PX and PTA Operation**: Shows the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33]. - **Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Presents the social inventory and warehouse receipts of PTA and PX [36][39][40]. - **Downstream Polyester Load**: Covers the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days of filament factories [48][50][59]. - **PF Detailed Data**: Includes the load, inventory, and profit - related data of polyester staple fiber [68][74][80]. - **PR Fundamental Detailed Data**: Involves the load, inventory, and processing fees of polyester bottle - grade chips [90][96][98].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality. In response to increased external pressure, the government has frequently proposed growth - stabilizing policies. China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, but exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter. [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st. [2] - The US government is in a shutdown, and the market has relatively underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - In the commodity market, gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors are worthy of attention. It is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: China's economic data in August showed signs of weakness. To cope with external pressure, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan were introduced. In September, exports and imports in US dollars both exceeded expectations. However, exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter due to high bases and Sino - US frictions. On October 14th, A - shares closed down, while some commodity futures rose. [1] - **Tariff Frictions**: Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated recently. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on imported products. China has also taken counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit. [2] - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government has been shut down for three weeks, and economic data release has been affected. Trump has threatened to fire federal employees during the shutdown. The market has underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - **Commodity Market**: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations with long - term supply constraints. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. Gold is expected to continue to strengthen, mainly driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [5]

贵金属板块成交13830.07亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.59%；持仓金额5297.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.88%；成 交持仓比为365.88%。 能源化工板块成交4076.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.90%；持仓金额4403.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.09%； 成交持仓比为82.44%。 农产品板块成交3337.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.99%；持仓金额5471.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.97%；成交 持仓比为59.63%。 流动性日报 | 2025-10-15 市场流动性概况 2025-10-14，股指板块成交11275.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.88%；持仓金额14028.33亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.30%；成交持仓比为78.80%。 国债板块成交5007.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.47%；持仓金额8090.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.00%；成交 持仓比为62.94%。 基本金属板块成交4911.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.52%；持仓金额5222.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.18%；成 交持仓比为87.10%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...