液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-23 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 现货涨跌互现，内外盘延续分化 市场分析 1、\t1月22日地区价格：山东市场，4460-4510；东北市场，3910-4050；华北市场，4300-4430；华东市场，4220-4310； 沿江市场，4620-5030；西北市场，4250-4400；华南市场，4790-4870。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷628美元/吨，涨18美元/吨，丁烷618美元/吨，涨17美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4841元/吨，涨139元/吨，丁烷4764元/吨，涨132元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷620美元/吨，涨18美元/吨，丁烷610美元/吨，涨17美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4779元/吨，涨139元/吨，丁烷4702元/吨，涨132元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘与到岸成本延续涨势，但国内液化气现货价格涨跌互现，整体表现一般。其中，只有山东民用液化气与 醚后碳四主流成交价格较上一工作 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The fundamentals of steel are under continued pressure, and steel prices are fluctuating [1] Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures fluctuated and rose yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, with dull production and sales by manufacturers and a cold trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a 0.38% increase from the previous week [2] - Soda ash futures also fluctuated and rose yesterday, with limited rigid demand procurement from downstream. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5212 million tons, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week [2] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the procurement by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure is expected to ease, and the market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [2] - The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has increased. Considering the upcoming new production projects in the future and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [2] Strategy - The glass market is expected to be in a state of fluctuation, while the soda ash market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese opened lower and moved higher yesterday, with trading volume increasing as the market fluctuated at a high level. The cost support for the alloy is acceptable. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5,570 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [4] - The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly yesterday, and the market adjusted slightly, with strong cautious waiting - and - seeing sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade natural block silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon is 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [4] Supply - Demand and Logic - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities coming on - stream, so the supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff policy changes in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [4] - The fundamental contradictions of silicon ferrosilicon are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage inventory replenishment, the demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices this year and the overall over - capacity of silicon ferrosilicon, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon ferrosilicon and the electricity price policies in production areas [4] Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are expected to be in a state of fluctuation [5]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-23 基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行 钢材：基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3124元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3287元/吨。现货方面，周三杭州螺纹库存47.2万吨， 螺纹出库3.9万吨，农历同比去年库存42.3万吨,去年出库4.3万吨。全国建材成交71531万吨。 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：成交有所回升，矿价震荡运行 供需与逻辑：建材基本面承压，需求走弱，淡季钢价震荡运行。板材基本面矛盾有限，高库存始终压制价格边际 弹性。短期市场情绪较弱，价格底部不排除投机需求发生，关注减产情况及冬储情况，需求去库变化、利润状况、 成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石价格震荡运行。现货方面，22日全国主港铁矿累计成交91.3万吨，环比上涨12.44%；本周 平均每日成交102.1万吨，环比上涨3.76%；本月平均每日成交95.8万吨，环比下跌6.54%。远期现货方面，远期现 货累计成交10.5万吨（2笔），环比下跌94. ...

去美元化加速，警惕 美元指数下行风险 华泰期货研究院 2026年01月23日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率上升 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率仍高于Call端，Put端波动率整体下 降 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 2 3 4 5 6 3M 2026/01/22 3M 2025/12/26 3M 2025/09/30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2024-01 2024-07 2025-01 2025-07 2026-01 20260121（%） 20260114（%） 20251224（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 上周新交所美元兑人民币期货升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No obvious core viewpoints provided in the report, mainly presenting data on the trading volume, PCR, and VIX of various index options 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 21, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 887,700 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,544,200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2,217,300 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 50,900 contracts; the trading volume of GEM ETF options was 1,675,000 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 28,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 109,400 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 258,200 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day, such as the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options being 945,100 contracts [18] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.70, with a month - on - month change of - 0.23; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.78, with a month - on - month change of + 0.01. Similar data are provided for other options [2][32] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 15.53%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.40%; the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 15.48%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.34%. Similar data are provided for other options [3][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by factors such as the stock market, policy signals from the Politburo meeting, unchanged LPR, Fed rate - cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Index**: China's monthly CPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a 2.05 - trillion - yuan increase and 0.47% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a 0.50% increase and 6.25% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a 0.90% increase and 1.83% growth rate [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 98.78, with a 0.23 increase and 0.23% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9586, with a 0.002 decrease and - 0.03% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, with a 0.01 increase and 0.34% growth rate, etc. [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.88 yuan, 108.20 yuan, and 112.25 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.75% [3] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.014 yuan, - 0.022 yuan, - 0.039 yuan, and - 0.970 yuan respectively [3] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 21, 2026, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2] - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.322%, 1.488%, 1.597%, and 1.559% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2] IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and inter - variety spreads between spot bonds and futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [30][32] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [41] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract are shown [43] VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TF main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [45] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52] VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the T main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [51] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are shown [51] VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TL main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [56] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, mid-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, mid-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran is currently under control, but tensions remain, and short-term oil prices may be repeatedly affected by news, with unclear direction for FU and LU [2] - The current fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. The high-sulfur fuel oil market needs to focus on the drag of the falling crack spread in the US Gulf on the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets and the hedging of downstream refinery demand growth. The Iranian situation and supply are potential variables [2] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market has limited contradictions and drivers. The increased shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria, especially Kuwait's high shipments in January, will bring some local pressure. The support for low-sulfur fuel oil comes from the diversion of components by RFCC units [2] - The current fuel oil market shows a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West. The widening of the East-West price difference will open the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume and potentially suppressing the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.79% at 2,542 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.39% at 3,090 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; mid-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; mid-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product sector is under pressure due to limited supply - demand improvement. For different products, the market conditions vary, and short - term and long - term trends need to be considered separately [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton. In December 2025, India's textile exports were 1.77 billion US dollars, down 1.62% year - on - year, while clothing exports increased to 1.504 billion US dollars, up 2.89% year - on - year. The total textile and clothing exports in December 2025 increased slightly by 0.40% to 3.274 billion US dollars. From April to December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 26.531 billion US dollars, slightly down 0.26% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the large - scale listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak, so short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the downward space is limited. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton season had a significant increase in production, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, downstream orders are weak, and the industrial chain inventory, especially the grey fabric inventory, has increased significantly. The annual supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - The strategy for cotton is neutral. In the short term, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] 3.2 Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (0.75%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,195 yuan/ton, unchanged. In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, up 26.6% from the same period in 2024. From April to December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative yield was 74.7 tons/hectare, down 4.6% from the same period in the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. In the short - term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar, but the global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season suppresses the market. In the long - term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi are fully operational, supply is seasonally increasing, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high [4] Strategy - The strategy for sugar is neutral. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, the domestic inventory pressure may not have peaked, and there is a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the sugar price should be treated with an idea of oscillating and bottom - building [6] 3.3 Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,000 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly organized. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation, the terminal effective demand was insufficient, and the raw material procurement of downstream paper mills was cautious, resulting in a long - term high inventory in domestic ports [7] Strategy - The strategy for pulp is neutral. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and the foreign - exchange price has increased, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

金属板块普涨，镍不锈钢震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 2026-01-21日沪镍主力合约2602开于142600元/吨，收于143060元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.39%，当日成交量为 745668（+50522）手，持仓量为75892（-3113）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约整体表现为宽幅波动、尾盘收涨，多空博弈激烈，核心驱动来自宏观情绪、外盘联 动与供需预期的综合影响。日内有色金属及贵金属板块普涨，一定程度上带动了沪镍价格走势。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿价格延续上行态势，市场看涨与挺价情绪主导，实际成交价格重心进一步 上移。菲律宾矿山高报价持续引导市场。国内市场有1.5%品位镍矿以CIF57美元成交，另有大型工厂对该品位的心 理采购价位在58-59美元。同时，1.4%品位CIF53美元左右的报价已出现，但买方接受意愿较低，凸显市场博弈加 剧。此外，菲律宾南部矿山1.3%品位镍矿以FOB35.5美元的价格成交并运往印尼，矿端心态普遍看涨。印尼方面， 市场价格在前期大幅上调后暂时企稳。市场正在消化当 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. - The pressure on the supply side is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$43.57 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,086 lots, and the open interest was 121,693 lots. The highest price was 24,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,070 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. - As of January 21, 2026, LME zinc inventory was 111,850 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous trading day [3]