Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy for steel is to be bullish with oscillations. [2] - Iron ore: The strategy for iron ore is to oscillate. [4] - Coking coal and coke: The strategies for coking coal and coke are both to be bullish with oscillations. [7] - Thermal coal: There is no investment strategy provided for thermal coal. [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are all showing upward trends. The supply of coal is facing disturbances, which has led to an increase in the valuation of commodities. [1][3][5][8] - The steel market is in the off - season for consumption, but the de - stocking performance is slightly better than the seasonal expectation. The plate shows strong consumption resilience. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment, and the implementation of policies and demand changes need to be followed up. [1] - In the iron ore market, under the influence of macro - policies, the market speculative sentiment has improved significantly, and the supply and demand fundamentals are good in the short term. However, in the long term, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is tight, and the demand for coke is strong. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round increase. [6] - In the thermal coal market, the price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and the market sentiment at ports is weak. The supply is expected to change, and the future supply and demand are expected to be tight. [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,264 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract was 3,431 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market increased significantly, and the spot price followed the increase. The national building materials trading volume was 126,000 tons. [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The building materials are in the off - season, with slightly increased inventory and slightly decreased production. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment. [1] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 823.0 yuan/ton, with a 2.49% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports continued to rise, but the trading sentiment was cold. The total transaction volume of main ports was 1.233 million tons, a 30.20% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 920,000 tons, a 42.50% decrease. [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Macro - policies have increased disturbances, and the market speculative sentiment has improved. The supply has strong support, and the global shipment has increased. The demand is guaranteed as the molten iron production remains high, and the inventory at ports has not increased significantly. In the long term, the supply and demand are relatively loose. [3] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to oscillate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black varieties all rose. The coking coal futures had multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The second - round price increase of coke spot was implemented, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase. The price of Mongolian coking coal continued to rise. [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to restricted coal mine production. The demand for coke is strong as steel mills' profits are good and the molten iron production remains high. The trading volume of spot coking coal and coke has increased. [6] - **Strategy**: The strategies for coking coal and coke for a single - side position are both to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and some coal mines' prices have decreased. The market sentiment at ports is weak, and the trading volume is small. The price of imported coal is high, but the trading activity is low. [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Some coal mines have resumed production, and the supply is gradually being released. With the continuous high temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen. The market expects future supply and demand to be tight. [8] - **Strategy**: There is no investment strategy provided. [9]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-23 市场氛围平淡，盘面持续走低 市场分析 1、\t7月22日地区价格：山东市场，4580-4670；东北市场，4190-4380；华北市场，4530-4680；华东市场，4330-4600； 沿江市场，4500-4660；西北市场，4000-4200；华南市场，4548-4700。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷540美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，丁烷522美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4248元/吨，跌122元/吨，丁烷4107元/吨，跌121元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷534美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，丁烷519美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4201元/吨，跌122元/吨，丁烷4083元/吨，跌122元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG基本面当前表现疲软，市场氛围平淡，外盘丙丁烷与内盘盘面均弱势运行。现货方面，华东、西北区域价格 下调，其余区域主流价格维稳，卖方库存可控，下游按需采购为主。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，7月份到港量 再度增加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton prices are expected to oscillate, while Zhengzhou cotton has limited upside due to factors like new cotton supply and weak demand [2][3] - For sugar, the global sugar market anticipates an increase in production. Zhengzhou sugar prices will likely be range - bound in the short term and in a downward cycle in the long term [5][6] - For pulp, short - term macro - sentiment boosts prices, but supply pressure and weak demand will keep prices at a low level in the near future [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.28%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 20, the budding rate was 71%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 57%, 4 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is weak, and the global cotton market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. US cotton prices will oscillate [2] - Domestic: Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the quota is not issued, and imports will be low. However, new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is weak [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton 09 may rise, but the 01 contract has limited upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.27%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India: As of mid - July 2025, India exported 65 - 70 million tons of sugar, aiming for 80 million tons by September [4] Market Analysis - International: The market is trading the expectation of global sugar production increase, and the upside of raw sugar is limited [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar prices are firm, but imports are increasing, and there is pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, trade within the range; in the long term, sell on rallies [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,368 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,285 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is affected by the off - season. Terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, pulp prices may stay at the bottom. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View - The market has a relatively high level of inquiry for mainstream lead products, but the trading volume of recycled lead remains low. As the demand during the peak season is not significantly evident, it is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On July 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.97/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, while the prices of scrap white and black casings remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,950 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,990 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. During the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,980 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [1] Market Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In the Henan region, some smelters have not fully resumed production, resulting in limited supply of scattered orders. Only some traders are offering quotes. In the Hunan region, smelters are firm in their quotes, while traders are offering discounts. In the Jiangxi and Yunnan regions, holders are also offering discounts [2] - **Demand**: The lead price is in a weak and fluctuating state. Downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, but some enterprises are hesitant due to concerns about price declines, resulting in a generally sluggish market transaction volume [2] Inventory - On July 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 22, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to sell high and buy low within the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide strangle [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and for BR is also cautiously bullish [4][6] Group 2: Core Views - The market atmosphere is warm, driving the improvement of demand expectations, and the rubber price continues the rebound trend. The profit of domestic latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and the increase of full latex is slow due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas. The raw material price strongly supports the domestic rubber price. The supply - side disturbances and the warm macro - atmosphere lead to the recent rebound of rubber prices. In the short term, the supply recovery pressure is limited, and the import pressure in China has decreased. The downstream semi - steel tire start - up rate has rebounded, but the terminal demand has no bright spots. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, it is expected that the rubber price will continue the rebound trend, and the substantial improvement of the demand side should be focused on later [4][5] - For BR, the supply shows a month - on - month recovery trend, and the downstream tire factory start - up rate has rebounded after the previous maintenance, but it is difficult to continue to rise later. The supply pressure of upstream butadiene raw materials has decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation, providing strong cost support for BR. The strong natural rubber makes the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to expand, and the downstream replacement demand also supports BR [6] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU main contract closed at 15,060 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,855 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. Yunnan - produced full latex in Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] Automobile Sales Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 410 yuan/ton (+ 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,633 yuan/ton (+ 179.38), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); full latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150), mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 80), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full latex and 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 66.57 baht/kg (- 0.05), Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30), Thai cup lump was 49.75 baht/kg (+ 0.45), the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and that of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 840 yuan/ton (- 164) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Group 5: Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. For BR, also be cautiously bullish [4][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on July 21, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On July 21, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: 1.1944 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 1.2434 million contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 1.4163 million contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 0.0876 million contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 1.5380 million contracts for ChiNext ETF options, 0.0259 million contracts for SSE 50 stock index options, 0.0791 million contracts for CSI 300 stock index options, and 0.1670 million contracts for CSI 1000 options [1][20]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different stock index options on July 21, 2025 showed that the turnover PCR and position PCR of each option had different changes compared with the previous period. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.43, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; the position PCR was 1.12, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01 [2][29]. Option VIX - The VIX data of different stock index options on July 21, 2025 also had different changes compared with the previous period. For example, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 15.72%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.88%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 15.99%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.72% [3][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply disruptions and a warm macro - atmosphere have led to a recent rebound in rubber prices. With continued rain disturbances, short - term raw material output remains restricted, and the supply recovery pressure is limited. The downstream semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded after maintenance, but the terminal demand lacks highlights. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to be strong. For BR, the supply is increasing, and the self - supply - demand pattern is weak, but the cost support is strong, and the substitution demand also provides support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: RU main contract closed at 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. Spot: Yunnan whole latex in Shanghai market at 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao bonded area Thai mixed rubber at 14,570 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; Qingdao bonded area Thai 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,800 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Qingdao bonded area Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price at 12,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price at 11,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month. In June 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market was 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 21, 2025, RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between RU main and mixed rubber was 325 yuan/ton (+ 15), smoked sheet rubber import profit was - 5,812 yuan/ton (- 56.07), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,570 yuan/ton (+ 70), 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), STR20 was quoted at 1,800 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 50 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,470 yuan/ton (- 30). Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 66.62 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.32), Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70). Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%). Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 21, 2025, BR basis was - 195 yuan/ton (+ 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 300), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 250), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 675 yuan/ton (+ 260). Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%). Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Strategy - RU and NR are rated neutral. The profit of domestic concentrated latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas, the increase of whole latex is slow. Raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, there has been more rain in the northeast recently, leading to a strong cup lump price and a continuous narrowing of the price gap between glue and cup lump [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy in the first half of the year showed resilience, with GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but policy urgency decreased. The export in June was strong, while social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment weakened. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have been expected to increase, with some commodity prices recovering. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reducing policies are needed to advance the "anti - involution" trading; otherwise, the weak demand de - stocking cycle may cause fluctuations [2]. - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US shifts its policy to a "loose - prone" stage. The second phase of the reciprocal tariff has started, and it may have a negative impact on sentiment and demand expectations [3]. - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, social retail growth slowed down due to subsidy cuts, and fixed - asset investment weakened. The LPR remained unchanged in July, and the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting is scheduled for July 24. On July 21, the A - share market strengthened, and most domestic commodity futures rose [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, policies to address "involution" in industries like steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have been emphasized. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce work plans for ten key industries, but more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reducing policies are required for further progress [2]. Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - The US has shifted to a "loose - prone" policy stage after passing the "Big Beautiful" bill. The second phase of reciprocal tariffs has begun, with tariffs imposed on multiple countries. The tariff situation is currently in a "stagnant" phase, which may affect sentiment and demand expectations [3]. Commodity Plate Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is affected by weak downstream demand, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products at low prices [5]. Important News - The LPR remained unchanged in July. The 25th China - EU leaders' meeting is scheduled for July 24. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will take effect on September 15, 2025. On July 21, the A - share market strengthened, and most domestic commodity futures rose. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned potential interest - rate cuts, and Japan's ruling coalition suffered a major defeat in the Senate election. Russia supports the third round of negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine issue [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests that oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and medium - term bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia aims to plug the refining loophole by restricting the export of refined Russian oil products from third - countries to Europe. The implementation of this sanction is difficult, and it has a 6 - month exemption period, so the short - term impact on the market is limited [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14 cents to $67.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 7 cents to $69.21 per barrel, a decrease of 0.10%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.20% at 509 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran is waiting for the US to show "genuine determination" on restarting nuclear negotiations with the US, emphasizing that only diplomatic means can solve the problem [1] - The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia. The new measures include lowering the G7's price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, cutting about 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT system, imposing sanctions on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, and restricting Russian oil refined in third - countries [1] - The EU Council has voted to extend the requirement for EU member states to maintain sufficient natural gas reserves before winter for another two years to reduce the risk of natural gas price fluctuations caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1] - The UK has joined the EU in lowering the so - called "price cap" on Russian crude oil exports from $60 to $47.6 per barrel [1] - Iran has agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with representatives of the UK, France, and Germany in the Iran nuclear deal in Istanbul on Friday [1] 4. Investment Logic - The EU's 18th - round sanctions on Russia aim to plug the refining loophole by restricting the export of refined Russian oil products from third - countries (mainly India and Turkey, with a combined diesel export of about 200,000 barrels per day) to Europe. However, the implementation of the sanctions is difficult as products can be blended in third - countries or have their origin certificates changed, and it's hard for the EU to trace Russian oil. The 6 - month exemption period also limits the short - term market impact [2] 5. Strategy - Oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and medium - term bearish allocation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on July 21, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for various sectors such as the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Various charts are used to display the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector [5][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 486.346 billion yuan, a change of - 10.60% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1071.902 billion yuan, a change of + 3.13% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 45.24% [1] - Multiple charts show the price change, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund change of each variety in the stock index plate [5] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 412.89 billion yuan, a change of + 60.25% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 913.311 billion yuan, a change of + 0.69% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 46.91% [1] - Multiple charts show the price change, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund change of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 634.191 billion yuan, a change of + 1.20% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 512.895 billion yuan, a change of + 5.44% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 165.53% - The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 348.508 billion yuan, a change of - 4.14% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 466.834 billion yuan, a change of + 1.96% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 82.63% [1] - Multiple charts show the price change, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund change of each variety in the metal plate [5] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 707.461 billion yuan, a change of + 27.22% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 438.931 billion yuan, a change of - 2.08% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 142.54% [1] - Multiple charts show the price change, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund change of each main variety in the energy chemical plate [5] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 339.628 billion yuan, a change of - 3.02% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 593.033 billion yuan, a change of - 1.08% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 49.04% [1] - Multiple charts show the price change, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund change of each main variety in the agricultural product plate [5] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of the black building material plate was 488.107 billion yuan, a change of + 47.14% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 392.289 billion yuan, a change of + 1.19% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 133.43% [2] - Multiple charts show the price change, trading - holding ratio, and precipitation fund change of each variety in the black building material plate [5]