液化石油气日报 | 2025-10-15 盘面低位反弹，到港压力仍存 市场分析 1、\t10月14日地区价格：山东市场，4410-4470；东北市场，3940-4360；华北市场，4300-4550；华东市场，4200-4480； 沿江市场，4670-4890；西北市场，4200-4300；华南市场，4498-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年11月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷530美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷510美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4144元/吨，跌15元/吨，丁烷3988元/吨，跌14元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年11月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷524美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷504美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4097元/吨，跌23元/吨，丁烷3941元/吨，跌22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 经历连续下跌后LPG盘面有所企稳回升。现货方面，昨日各区域价格下跌为主。其中，华东民用气市场主流成交 价格较上一工作日下调，供应充裕，氛围表现一般。整体来看，LPG自身供需格局保持宽松，海外供应仍较为充 裕，中东与北美出口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about demand and the recovery of supply, the rubber price continues to be weak. Although the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply of BR is still supported, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,845 yuan/ton, a change of -95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,990 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,820 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of -150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In September 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in recent years [2] - In September 2025, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China was 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] - From January to August 2025, the export volume of Chinese rubber tires reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3] - According to QinRex data, from January to August 2025, the total export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, the automobile export volume was 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the RU basis was -595 yuan/ton (+45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 395 yuan/ton (-95), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -3,332 yuan/ton (+7.76), the NR basis was 936.00 yuan/ton (-18.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,250 yuan/ton (-50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was -700 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.65 Thai baht/kg (-0.30), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (-1.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.15 Thai baht/kg (+1.00) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (-17.50%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (-122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (-705) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the BR basis was -30 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton (-150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -2,196 yuan/ton (-100) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.69% (+4.15%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+0) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Due to the continuation of the Sino - US tariff game, concerns about the demand side resurface, and the supply is recovering. The domestic supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming looser, but the low valuation limits the downward space [6] - For BR, maintain a neutral view. There are still maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in China in October, and the supply is still supported. The supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6]

燃料油日报 | 2025-10-15 低硫燃料油市场结构弱势运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.55%，报2672元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.9%，报3155 元/吨。 原油价格近期连续下跌，带动能源板块整体走低，FU、LU盘面弱势运行。当前处于中美关税谈判窗口期，油价可 能受到各种消息面的扰动，波动率或明显增加，需要保持谨慎。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前基本面尚可，中东供应收紧与炼厂端需求改善对市场形成提振。但基于目前的估 值水平与供需状况来看，上行驱动和空间仍有限，需要新的变量催化。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场结构弱势运行，外盘裂解价差与月差呈现震荡走低态势。一方面，来自非洲、南美等 地的供应有所增加，市场供应较为充裕；另一方面，下游船燃需求表现偏弱，在贸易争端加剧的背景下，航运与 船燃端需求面临潜在风险。相较于高硫燃料油，低硫燃料油下游需求更为集中，对关税摩擦反应或更为敏感。 | 图1：新加坡高硫380燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2：新加坡低硫燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | 图3：新加坡高硫燃料油掉期近 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an overview of the mid - and upstream industries, including production and service sectors, and details the price and operation status of various industries at different levels. It also mentions relevant policies and responses to international trade issues [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission released an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the intelligent terminal industry from 2026 - 2027, aiming to increase the scale of intelligent computing power terminals. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries and infrastructure [1]. - **Service Industry**: In response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the US measures are unfair and discriminatory, and urged the US to correct its mistakes and resolve issues through dialogue [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices in the non - ferrous metal industry have rebounded, while egg prices in the agricultural industry have dropped significantly [2]. - **Midstream**: The PX industry in the chemical sector has a high operating rate; power plant coal consumption in the energy sector has decreased; and the asphalt industry in the infrastructure sector has reached a three - year high in operating rate [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities in the real estate market have slightly increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 14, the prices of eggs decreased by 19.12% year - on - year, while the prices of palm oil increased by 2.38% [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 9, the prices of copper increased by 7.20% year - on - year, and the prices of zinc increased by 1.45% [37]. - **Energy**: On October 14, the prices of WTI crude oil decreased by 6.24% year - on - year, and the prices of Brent crude oil decreased by 5.62% [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 14, the building materials comprehensive index decreased by 0.94%, and the concrete price index decreased by 0.35% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Suspended [4] Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the continuous increase in by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. It is predicted that the lead price will show a volatile pattern, roughly ranging from 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 45.35 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On October 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,050 yuan/ton and closed at 17,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,201 lots, a decrease of 23,393 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,597 lots, a decrease of 391 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,035 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,010 yuan/ton and closed at 17,015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 14, the LME lead inventory was 246,550 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [9] Core View of the Report The copper price strengthened during the National Day due to the resumption of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and frequent mine - end disturbances. However, the processing fee of - 40 dollars/ton already reflects the tightening of mine - end resources, so the short - term price increase caused by mine - end disturbances may not be sustainable. When the Sino - US trade dispute seemed to intensify last Friday, the copper price declined. But low processing fees and the Fed's interest - rate cut limit the downside of the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 85,800 yuan/ton and closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 84,180 yuan/ton and closed at 84,890 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 20 to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The spot price was 85,780 - 86,200 yuan/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was weak. It is expected that trading will be light on the last trading day of the 2510 contract, but the premium may rise after the contract change [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Chairman Powell said employment and inflation prospects have changed little since September, and the Fed will adjust monetary policy based on economic prospects and risk balance. He also mentioned that the balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. The US economic growth forecast for this year and next was slightly raised by 0.1 percentage points, while China's growth rate for this year was maintained at 4.8% [3]. Supply - Side Information Mine End - Freeport Indonesia will suspend its Manyar smelter due to copper concentrate supply shortages after a mudslide at the Grasberg mine. The Grasberg mine may not return to pre - accident operation levels until at least 2027. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper equivalent production increased 10% year - on - year to 204,000 tons, and copper production is expected to reach the upper end of the 2025 target [4]. Smelting and Import - Around 600,000 tons of copper flowed into the US before the tariff increase this year, with about 400,000 tons privately stored, which means the US doesn't need to import copper in the short term. Macquarie predicts the average LME copper price in 2026 will be 9,525 dollars/ton [5]. Consumption Information - In September, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, up 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year. From January to September, production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, up 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 138,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons. On October 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.72 million tons, up 0.057 million tons from the previous week [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with high inventories. The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For trading strategies, a range - based operation is recommended for single - side trading, while no specific strategies are proposed for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1][3]. - The stainless steel market is facing inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand. The stainless steel price is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and no strategies are given for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,084 (- 38,918) lots, and the open interest was 73,107 (- 1,593) lots. The oversupply pattern persists, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariff friction have intensified. The LME inventory continues to increase, suppressing the nickel price. The trading volume and open interest both decreased, indicating reduced market trading activity and capital participation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and the price remains stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF 44, with no transactions concluded. In the Philippines, the bidding result of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in Zambales has not been released. The downstream nickel - iron price has declined, squeezing the profit of iron plants, leading to cautious procurement of nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories have started stockpiling raw materials for winter. The supply in the Indonesian market remains loose, and the October (second phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to increase by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai market sales price of Jinchuan Group is 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in refined nickel prices has increased downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the intraday trading volume is fair. The premiums of various brands are mainly stable. The Jinchuan nickel premium remains unchanged at 2,400 yuan/ton, the imported nickel premium increases by 25 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the nickel bean premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,027 (- 245) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 (+ 1,164) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Mainly use range - based operations [3]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,756 (- 59,233) lots, and the open interest was 190,251 (- 4,171) lots. It shows a similar trend to Shanghai nickel, continuing the low - level oscillation pattern and reaching a low of 12,050 yuan/ton, close to the three - month low [3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism has intensified, and spot prices have decreased, but trading remains sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (- 150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,000 (- 100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium ranges from 455 to 755 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Neutral [5]. - **Cross - period**: None [5]. - **Cross - variety**: None [5]. - **Spot - futures**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bearish, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core View - The asphalt market has few positive factors and the market is running weakly. The asphalt futures and spot prices are showing a downward trend. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with insufficient demand growth momentum and local pressure emerging. The market may fluctuate repeatedly due to the impact of crude oil trends and increased macro - level disturbances, so caution is recommended [1] Market Analysis - On October 14, the closing price of the main BU2511 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 99,108 lots, a decrease of 4,179 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 100,725 lots, a decrease of 41,232 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,330 - 3,670 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,380 - 3,550 yuan/ton in the South China, and 3,450 - 3,550 yuan/ton in the East China [1] - The asphalt market has been on a continuous downward trend recently. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Northeast, and South China remained relatively stable yesterday, while those in other regions decreased to varying degrees [1] Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month asphalt futures, the trading volume and open interest of the asphalt futures, the weekly domestic asphalt production, the asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-15 苹果好货稳中偏强，红枣期价窄幅震荡 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8664元/吨，较前一日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.30%。现货方面，陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格3.85元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+-964，较前一日变动-26。 近期市场资讯，目前西部上量增加。甘肃产区交易活跃，客商对好货拿货积极。目前交易价格来看，陕西洛川产 区晚富士70#以上半商品3.7-3.9元/斤附近，70#以上统货3.4-3.6元/斤，订园价格3.5-3.8元/斤主流。多以质论价。甘 肃静宁产区70#以上山地商品5-6元/斤，主流5-5.5元/斤。70#以上统货4-4.5元/斤附近，冰雹伤货源3.5-4元/斤。山东 产区红货不多，果面质量一般，客商多流向西部及辽宁产区，招远毕郭市场晚富士红货零星交易，主流参考价2.5-3.5 元/斤。晚富士价格走势、客商收购心态、果农出售心态、天气情况、终端消费进度。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价小幅上涨，西部产区上量增加且交易活跃，好货价格稳中偏强，山东红货少、客商外流，整体呈现 价格两极分化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is cautiously bullish, and the rating for arbitrage is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - LME inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute value remains below 40,000 tons, leading to a rapid increase in overseas premiums. The domestic supply pressure persists, but the opening of the export window has reversed the short - allocation logic. The linkage between domestic and overseas zinc prices will strengthen, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $201.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan per ton, closed at 22,220 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the position was 95,194 lots. The highest price was 22,335 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,210 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,600 tons, a change of 1,125 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - LME inventory has a slight rebound, but the absolute value is still low, causing the overseas premium to quickly break through $200 per ton. The domestic smelting profit has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains. The opening of the export window has changed the short - allocation logic, and the linkage between domestic and overseas prices will strengthen. There's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] Strategy - Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral [5]