Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins continue to be weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. For PE, factors such as inventory accumulation, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production contribute to the decline. For PP, cost - side weakness and supply - demand imbalances cause the downward movement of the market [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6910元/吨（-8），PP主力合约收盘价为6595元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6910元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6620元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为0元/吨（-52），LL华东基差为40元/吨（-42），PP华东基差为25元/吨（-13）[1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）[1] - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为452.3元/吨（-8.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 147.7元/吨（-8.9），PDH制PP生产利润为174.6元/吨（+64.2）[1] - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 108.2元/吨（-80.0），PP进口利润为 - 554.0元/吨（-30.0），PP出口利润为23.6美元/吨（+3.7）[1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.3%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（+0.5%）[1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. The downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the slow inventory digestion, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production lead to the downward trend. In the future, supply is expected to increase with new device production and restart of shutdown devices, while demand improvement is limited [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is mainly due to the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. Supply is expected to increase with the restart of devices and new production, while demand fails to meet expectations during the peak season. The cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L and PP [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-16 苹果价格两极分化，红枣销区到货锐减 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8665元/吨，较前一日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.01%。现货方面，陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格3.85元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-965，较前一日变动-1。 近期市场资讯，目前西部交易表现活跃，客商积极订购好货，甘肃整体价格稳定运行。目前交易价格来看，陕西 洛川产区晚富士70#以上半商品3.7-3.9元/斤附近，70#以上统货3.4-3.6元/斤，订园价格3.5-3.8元/斤主流。多以质论 价。甘肃静宁产区70#以上山地商品5-6元/斤，主流5-5.5元/斤。70#以上统货4-4.5元/斤附近，冰雹伤货源3.5-4元/ 斤。山东产区红货不多，果面质量一般，客商多流向西部及辽宁产区，招远毕郭市场晚富士红货零星交易，主流 参考价2.5-3.5元/斤。晚富士价格走势、客商收购心态、果农出售心态、天气情况、终端消费进度。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价窄幅波动。晚富士现货市场，甘肃、陕西等西部产区受持续降雨影响，晚富士采摘下树及上色受阻， 客商对好货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]

市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2025-10-16 部分二育入场，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11400元/吨，较前交易日变动-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.44%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.23元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-965，较前交易日变动-615；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.33元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH11-70，较前交易日变动+180；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.53元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH11-1665，较前交易日变动-645。 据农业农村部监测，据农业农村部监测，10月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为119.07，比昨天上升0.15个点，"菜 篮子"产品批发价格指数为120.04，比昨天上升0.18个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.21元/公斤，比昨 天下降1.5%；牛肉65.98元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉61.66元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.44元/公斤，比昨 天下降2.1%；白条鸡17.51元/公斤，比昨天 ...

期权VIX 股指期权日报 | 2025-10-15 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-10-14，上证50ETF期权成交量为154.29万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为176.77万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为224.15万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为12.65万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为320.24万张；上证50股指期权成交量为10.51万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为22.43万张；中证1000期权总成交量为49.47万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.74，环比变动为-0.24；持仓量PCR报0.74，环比变动为-0.01； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.11，环比变动为-0.03；持仓量PCR报0.92，环比变动为+0.00； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.12，环比变动为+0.15；持仓量PCR报1.06，环比变动为-0.21 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.65 ，环比变动为+0.27；持仓量PCR报1.21；环比变动为+0.00； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.52，环比变动为 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-10-15 油脂供需稳定，价格延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9330.00元/吨，环比变化-34元，幅度-0.36%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8240.00 元/吨，环比变化-28.00元，幅度-0.34%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9959.00元/吨，环比变化-63.00元，幅度-0.63%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9270.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.54%，现货基差P01+-60.00，环比变化 +84.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8440.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y01+200.00， 环比变化+38.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10260.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.58%，现货基差 OI01+301.00，环比变化+3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年10月9日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为994008吨，前一周修 正后为783495吨，初值为768117吨。2024年10月10日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1907952 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US trade conflict has dragged down the chemical sector as a whole. For pure benzene, the port de-stocking rate has slowed down, indicating that downstream procurement has not continued after the holiday. The recovery rate of CPL and aniline operations may be limited, and there is still inventory pressure on PA6 & nylon filament and MDI. The concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October has dragged down the demand for pure benzene. For styrene, port inventory pressure persists, downstream pick-up performance remains average, and port basis has weakened slightly. EPS seasonal low operating rate awaits recovery, PS operating rate continues to decline, and the pressure on PS finished product inventory has increased after the holiday. ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level, but inventory pressure has further increased. Supply is affected by ongoing maintenance of some plants and new device launches, and overseas demand remains weak, increasing the import pressure on China [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is 33 yuan/ton (-5), and the spot - M2 spread is 40 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton). EB main contract basis is 41 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 136 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 123 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 75.5 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 546 yuan/ton (-47 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 9.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), East China commercial inventory is 121,500 tons (+5,100 tons), and the operating rate is 73.6% (+2.4%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 331 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), operating rate is 40.74% (-2.37%); PS production profit is - 119 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), operating rate is 54.60% (-1.70%); ABS production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton), operating rate is 72.50% (+1.50%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+90), operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%); Phenol - acetone production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+92), operating rate is 78.00% (-1.00%); Aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+140), operating rate is 77.16% (+1.12%); Adipic acid production profit is - 1292 yuan/ton (+81), operating rate is 66.90% (+4.00%) [1]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies. - Cross - Variety: No strategy [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is experiencing weak sentiment with prices trending downwards due to high post - holiday production, average demand, slow inventory reduction, and shrinking steel mill profits. The market is also influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - The iron ore market is under cautious observation with prices weakening. Although demand is resilient, the expected increase in future supply and high current price valuations suggest potential downside risks, especially considering possible steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows no obvious supply - demand contradictions and is expected to move in a sideways pattern. Macroeconomic policies and supply - demand dynamics on both sides need to be monitored [5][6]. - The动力煤 market has seen rising prices in the production areas due to positive downstream demand. In the short term, prices will move sideways, while in the long - term, the supply remains ample [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil at 3421 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 94,577 tons, a daily decrease of 10.8% and a weekly increase of 17.51%. Post - holiday steel production remained high, demand was average, inventory reduction was slow, and steel mill profits continued to shrink [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for single - side trading is to expect a sideways - to - downward movement [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports declined. The total transaction volume of main ports was 185.9 million tons, a 95.27% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 91 million tons, a 44.44% increase. Iron ore arrivals increased significantly this week, iron - water production remained high, and port inventories increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended single - side trading strategy is a sideways - to - downward movement [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The futures of double - coking oscillated. The coke market was stable, with most steel mills purchasing for immediate needs. The production of coking coal was gradually recovering, but was affected by some factors. The customs system failure at the Ganqimaodu port led to a significant decline in customs clearance [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to positive downstream demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries. At ports, the market sentiment was good, but the transaction was deadlocked. The imported coal market was strong, and the price advantage was obvious [8]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategy was provided [8].

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-15 期货行情与成交量： 2025-10-14，沪金主力合约开于929.50元/克，收于938.98元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.23%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于937.50元/克，收于949.76元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨1.15%。 2025-10-14，沪银主力合约开于11582.00元/千克，收于11533.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.02%。当日成交 量为2421975手，持仓量为467690手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于11430元/千克，收于11732元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨1.73%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-10-14，美国10年期国债利率收于4.030%，较前一交易日+0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.547%，较前一交 易日+0.81BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-10-14，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化-1323手，空头则是变化-1189手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 778989手，较前一交易日变化25.86%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-15 关注伊朗制裁的进展 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润678元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2083元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差409元/吨（+68），内蒙南线2050元/吨（-30）；山东临沂2320元/吨（-10）， 鲁南基差246元/吨（+58）；河南2195元/吨（+5），河南基差121元/吨（+73）；河北2235元/吨（-10），河北基差221 元/吨（+58）。隆众内地工厂库存339400吨（+19460），西北工厂库存204000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单115240 吨（-157782），西北工厂待发订单63200吨（-90800）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2285元/吨（-15），太仓基差11元/吨（+53），CFR中国264美元/吨（+8），华东进口价差-10元/ 吨（+4），常州甲醇2415元/吨；广东甲醇2270元/吨（-30），广东基差-4元/吨（+38）。隆众港口总库存1543230吨 （+51040），江苏港口库存793000吨（+14000），浙江港 ...