流动性日报 | 2025-11-27 市场流动性概况 2025-11-26，股指板块成交5627.78亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.51%；持仓金额12752.85亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.23%；成交持仓比为43.66%。 国债板块成交5332.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.54%；持仓金额8118.85亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.32%；成交持 仓比为65.94%。 基本金属板块成交4705.19亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.27%；持仓金额5900.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.55%； 成交持仓比为91.46%。 贵金属板块成交8017.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.85%；持仓金额4457.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.68%；成 交持仓比为240.92%。 能源化工板块成交4538.42亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.72%；持仓金额4548.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.49%； 成交持仓比为87.15%。 农产品板块成交3425.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.90%；持仓金额6083.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.66%；成交 持仓比为52.82%。 黑色建材板块成交241 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-27 市场情绪回落，钢价区间震荡 钢材：市场情绪回落，钢价区间震荡 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3099元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3304元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 环比前日有所走弱。 供需与逻辑：在经过几周的连续去库下，成材库存压力得到显著缓解，降库整体符合季节性特征。其中建材供需 基本面环比改善，供需双弱下库存压力得到较好缓解，卷螺价差大幅收窄，考虑到即将步入建材需求淡季，关注 后续市场情绪及库存变化情况。板材供需双强，高供应带来的高库存仍对板材价格形成压制，考虑到后期建材需 求转弱可能会形成拖累，板材或需要通过适度减产来化解高库存压力。关注钢材减产和利润变化， 策略 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：现货供需偏紧，矿价震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡上行。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报盘 积极性一般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交103.3万吨，环比上涨5.95%；远期现 货：远期现货累计成交15 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 盘中出现极端价格 铅价或可逢高沽空 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-26，LME铅现货升水为-35.57美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9950 元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-26，沪铅主力合约开于17065元/吨，收于17065元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交40187手，较前一交易日变化-309手，全天交易日持仓49033手，手较前一交易日变化-3433手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17130元/吨，最低点达到17030元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. However, as the current price is at a 5 - year low, the downside space is limited [1][2] - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations. After the macro - level positive factors fade, there is a risk of price weakening. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low, so the downside space is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,260 yuan/ton, a 0.97% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 176,566 (+60,128) lots, and the open interest was 128,268 (-12,947) lots. The price continued to rebound due to multiple macro - level positive factors, including the Fed's dovish signal, progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the domestic central bank's continuous net injection [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mostly in a wait - and - see state, with prices remaining stable. Philippine mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - mill profits, so they are cautious about purchasing nickel ore. Some iron mills are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade prices of nickel ore will decline [1] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,100 yuan/ton, a 1,300 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the continuous rise in futures prices, the overall trading of refined nickel is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands are stable or declining. Jinchuan nickel's premium changes by 200 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changes by - 100 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,944 (294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,520 (1038) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,410 yuan/ton and closed at 12,455 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,599 (+1,313) lots, and the open interest was 131,410 (-4,171) lots. The price rebounded by 0.65% and closed above the 5 - day moving average but below the 20 - day moving average, with a weak medium - term trend. The recent rebound is driven by nickel prices and improved macro - level liquidity expectations, but the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and high inventory and cost collapse are still the main factors suppressing prices [2][3] - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous rebound of futures prices, spot trading has significantly improved today, and the quotes have slightly increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (+25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 884.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 下游供应宽松，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2601合约2439元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+45， 较前日变动+8；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-35，较前日变动-2；广东地区豆 粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-45，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2620元/ 吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+181，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，10月9日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增 78.50万吨，较之前一周减少15%，较前四周均值减少9%，市场此前预估为净增50.0万吨至净增140.0万吨。11月25 日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料触及440万吨，上周预测为471万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about future aluminium consumption, believing that the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains unchanged. The price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, but its current valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Market Data - **Spot Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount changes were also seen in Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai aluminium contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 172,888 lots, and the open interest was 259,056 lots [2]. - **Aluminium Inventory**: As of November 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,985 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 541,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,835 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, 2,860 yuan/ton, 2,910 yuan/ton, and 2,935 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2,722 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 190,375 lots, and the open interest was 377,215 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Market Data - **Aluminium Alloy Price**: On November 26, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminium was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, also with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminium Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. - **Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminium**: The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminium project of Indonesia's Lygend has been completed and put into production, but it is expected to reach full production in October 2026. The power supply in Indonesia may still affect production. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in the US in December has strengthened again, and the aluminium price has rebounded. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has declined slightly, and the spot discount has widened again. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory - reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices [6]. - **Alumina**: There are few transactions in the spot market, and electrolytic aluminium plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines face short - term environmental protection pressure, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, weakening the sentiment towards prices. The price has fallen below the marginal maximum cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current alumina valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [7][8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 单边：短期观望为主，关注库存与消费拐点及矿端复产情况 主力合约换月，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-11-26，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于97740元/吨，收于96340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.45%。当日成 交量为810231手，持仓量为478054手，前一交易日持仓量430223手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5540元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27050手，较上个交易日变化435手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价90000-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价88800-92000元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1185美元/吨，较前一日变化65美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货呈现区间震荡格局，主力合约已切换至2605，期货价格主要波动于9.53至9.99万元/吨之间。下游 材料厂采购意愿在短暂回暖后重归观望，采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交表现清淡。目前，上下游企业正在就明年 的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。 10月，特斯拉在欧盟的新车 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 需求提振不足，猪价延续震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11540元/吨，较前交易日变动+125.00元/吨，幅度+1.10%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-200，较前交易日变动-135；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH01-200，较前交易日变动-235；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.57元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+30，较前交易日变动-125。 据农业农村部监测，11月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为126.14，比昨天上升0.20个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为128.36，比昨天上升0.23个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；牛肉66.02 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；羊肉63.20元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.27元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%；白条鸡17.35 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, along with differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and increased global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is uncertain. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% or - 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% or - 1.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.58, down 0.23 or - 0.23%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0775, down 0.017 or - 0.24%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; DR007 is 1.47, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 or - 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with no change in value and a - 0.02% change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, up 0.01 or - 0.02% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.74 yuan, 107.85 yuan, and 114.29 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.36%, and - 0.86% [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.027 yuan, 0.075 yuan, - 0.109 yuan, and 0.131 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation**: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.453%, 1.507%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview The report provides multiple spread analysis charts, including the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [29][36][39]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [38][42][50]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [52][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [59][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are presented on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [66][73]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate falls and the treasury bond futures price oscillates, the 2603 strategy is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].