1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the tariff black - swan market, the risk appetite declined, impacting the bond market. The continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increasing global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no change; Manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a 0.40% (0.81%) increase [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US Dollar Index was 99.24, up 0.40 (0.40%); USD/CNH (off - shore) was 7.1370, down 0.005 (- 0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.45, up 0.04 (3.14%); DR007 was 1.45, up 0.06 (3.94%); R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 (1.49%); AAA - rated 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.59, up 0.01 (0.82%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (0.82%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than referring to relevant figures (such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc.) is provided. The data sources for these figures are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [11][13][15]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The section mainly shows relevant figures including Shibor rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24]. IV. Spread Overview The section presents figures about the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][38][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section contains figures like the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][50][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section shows figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section presents figures such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][62][66]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended for the 2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

油料日报 | 2025-10-14 豆一因拍卖供需调整，花生受供应影响 市场待明 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3961.00元/吨，较前日变化+8.00元/吨，幅度+0.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+79，较前日变化-188，幅度32.14%。 昨日豆一期货冲高回落。中储粮计划10月14日拍卖4.3万吨2022年及2023年国产大豆，市场聚焦拍卖情况，预计新 陈豆价差将逐步收窄。当前东北产区新季大豆上市范围扩大、供应量增加，随着晾晒推进，优质豆源供应增多。 中国粮油商务网称，油厂及蛋白厂收购价虽趋稳，但潜在供应压力仍存，或压制价格。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2511合约7902.00元/吨，较前日变化+116.00元/吨，幅度+1.49%。现货方面，花生现货均 价8370.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%，现货基差PK11+298.00，环比变化-316.00，幅度-51.47%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面全国花生市场通货米均价4.17元/斤，下跌0.01元/斤，其中，河南白沙通货米好货4.2-4.3 元/斤不 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-14 美联储官员再发鸽派言论 铜价震荡走强 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 矿端方面，外电10月10日消息，安托法加斯塔集团（Antofagasta）已启动其铜矿增长战略的关键阶段 —— 在该国 北部Centinela铜矿的Encuentro硫化矿采矿坑进行了首次爆破作业。此次爆破标志着初期剥离作业的正式开始，该 作业将为Centinela铜矿的第二选矿厂供应更高品位的硫化矿矿石。依托此次扩建，公司计划在中期内将铜矿产量提 升30%，充分挖掘Centinela铜矿26亿吨矿石储量的价值。Encuentro硫化矿项目于2025年7月获批，预计投资10亿美 元，其剥离阶段预计将于2028年完成。此外，外电10月12日消息，智利Codelco旗下El Teniente矿在7月底发生致命 岩石崩塌事故后，尽管已恢复部分运营，但产量可能在未来数月仍远低于满负荷水平，预计影响将持续至2026年。 知情人士透露，该矿区当时刚开始投入生产的新区域计划在未来几年逐步增加产量，事故导致该区域无法使用， 从而严重影响Codelco整体生产恢复。生产损失预计今年将达到4.8万吨，高于此前预测 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton [1] - The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Option Trading Volume - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1468,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,727,300 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,823,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 112,100 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2,461,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 96,000 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 194,000 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 448,200 contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 700,400 call contracts and 842,500 put contracts for Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options, with a total of 1,542,900 contracts [20]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.98, with a month - on - month change of +0.38; the position PCR was reported at 0.75, with a month - on - month change of +0.00. Similar data is provided for other types of options, like the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.14, with a month - on - month change of +0.40, and the position PCR was 0.92, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06 [2][34]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 19.91%, with a month - on - month change of +1.39%. For other options, such as the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 20.55%, with a month - on - month change of +1.74%, and the VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 25.02%, with a month - on - month change of +1.90% [3][47].

供应压力延续，猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 农产品日报 | 2025-10-14 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11125元/吨，较前交易日变动-195.00元/吨，幅度-1.72%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-15，较前交易日变动+115；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH11+85，较前交易日变动+135；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.43元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH11-695，较前交易日变动-335。 据农业农村部监测，10月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.70，比上周六上升0.28个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为119.61，比上周六上升0.33个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.47元/公斤，比上周六下降1.6%； 牛肉66.34元/公斤，比上周六上升0.5%；羊肉62.06元/公斤，比上周六上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.76元/公斤，比上周六下降 1.4%；白条鸡17.55元/公斤，比上周六下降0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The main port of ethylene glycol (EG) continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is operating weakly. The spot price of EG in the East China market increased by 2.65% compared to the previous trading day, and the futures price also slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas EG supply. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has rebounded after hitting the bottom [2]. - The strategy includes: cautiously short - selling on rallies for single - side trading; conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 for inter - period trading; and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,111 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton, +0.27% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,178 yuan/ton (up 108 yuan/ton, +2.65% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - based EG was - 527 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, the demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.1 tons (up 3.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (up 4.3 tons month - on - month). From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main port was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.5 tons, with the inventory likely to continue to accumulate [1].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-14 下游采购意愿有限 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-10-13，LME铅现货升水为-38.22美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16925元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10375元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-13，沪铅主力合约开于17160元/吨，收于17095元/吨，较前一交易日变化-45元/吨，全天交易日 成交66594手，较前一交易日变化30286手，全天交易日持仓43988手，手较前一交易日变化-807手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17290元/吨，最低点达到17085元/吨。 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-10-14 生产行业：1）据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（9月23日—10月11日）国际油价呈 震荡下降走势。从10月13日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别下调70元和75元，全国平均来看，92号汽油、95号汽 油和0号柴油每升均下调0.06元。按此价格计算，用92号汽油加满50升的油箱将少花3元。 服务行业：1）交通运输部办公厅发布关于印发《对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费实施办法》的通知。从事国际海上 运输、靠泊中国港口并符合下列条件之一的船舶，船方或其代理人应当缴纳船舶特别港务费：（一）美国的企业、 其他组织和个人拥有船舶所有权的船舶；（二）美国的企业、其他组织和个人运营的船舶；（三）美国的企业、其 他组织和个人直接或间接持有25%及以上股权（表决权、董事会席位）的企业、其他组织拥有或运营的船舶；（四） 悬挂美国旗的船舶；（五）在美国建造的船舶。前款第一项至第四项中由中国建造的船舶免于缴纳。仅进入中国船 厂修理的空载船舶，以及其他经认定予以豁免的船舶免予缴纳。。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价回落较多。2）农业：鸡蛋价格大 ...