大资金托底，股指低开高走 市场分析 我国出口增长。国内方面，中方对美船舶收取特别港务费今起正式施行。交通运输部办公厅印发《对美船舶收取 船舶特别港务费实施办法》，其中提到，从事国际海上运输、靠泊中国港口并符合下列条件之一的船舶，船方或其 代理人应当缴纳船舶特别港务费。经济数据方面，据海关统计，今年9月，我国货物贸易进出口4.04万亿元，同比 增长8%。海外方面，美联储保尔森表示，她支持今年再降息两次，每次25个基点。保尔森称，货币政策应忽略关 税对消费者价格上涨的影响，因为她认为不存在能使关税引发的价格上涨演变为持续通胀的条件。 FICC日报 | 2025-10-14 指数低开高走。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，沪指跌0.19%收于3889.5点，创业板指跌1.11%。行业方面，板 块指数跌多涨少，有色金属、环保、钢铁行业领涨，汽车、家用电器、美容护理、传媒行业跌幅居前。当日沪深 两市成交金额约为2.4万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨2.21%报22694.608点。 IM增仓。期货市场，基差方面，当日股指期货基差回落。成交持仓方面，IF、IC、IM成交量和持仓量同步增加。 策略 我国出口韧性 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 13, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 72,280 yuan/ton, a -1.12% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 282,178 lots, and the open interest was 207,463 lots, compared to 221,919 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 900 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 36,718 lots, a change of -5,951 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,300 - 73,900 yuan/ton, a change of -450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,250 - 71,450 yuan/ton, also a change of -450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 818 US dollars/ton, a change of -10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The psychological expectation price of downstream material factories continued to decrease, and the overall market transaction activity was average [1]. - In terms of supply, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene end and the salt lake end, and it was expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still had growth potential. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market for both commercial and passenger use in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy - storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. 2. Company News - BYD announced its production and sales report for September 2025. In September 2025, the total installed capacity of BYD's new - energy vehicle power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 23.2 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 17.17% and a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The cumulative installed capacity in 2025 was approximately 203.251 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.14% [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market was weak on the day, but there was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, inventory continued to decline, and the market had some support. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline. Recently, the market was greatly affected by macro - sentiment. If there was a large rebound, short - selling hedging could be carried out at high prices [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-10-14 库存压力偏大，聚烯烃延续弱势 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6983元/吨（-54），PP主力合约收盘价为6693元/吨（-29），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7080元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为6670元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为17元/吨（+54），LL 华东基差为97元/吨（+24）， PP华东基差为-23元/吨（+19）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为542.8元/吨（+157.6），PP油制生产利润为-127.2元/吨（+157.6），PDH制PP生产 利润为-99.0元/吨（-270.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为10.8元/吨（+52.2），PP进口利润为-547.8元/吨（-73.5），PP出口利润为17.5美元/吨（+9.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, increasing market uncertainty. The new - year production increase expectation suppresses the market, and downstream demand is weak, so short - term cotton prices may continue to decline [3]. - Sugar: Typhoons in China have affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, which may support sugar prices. However, the Sino - US trade friction has intensified, and short - term market fluctuations may increase [7]. - Pulp: The tariff war has a negative impact on the macro - level. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,642 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1]. - Exports: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.308 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the total exports were 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2]. - Domestic: Cotton inventory reduction is fast, but the pre - holiday cotton purchase by ginneries was cautious. The new cotton harvest has accelerated, and the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term cotton price has a risk of further decline due to the trade war and production increase expectation [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Exports: India's 2024/25 sugar exports from February to September 2025 totaled 775,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased year - on - year, suppressing the raw sugar price. The raw sugar price has limited downward space due to ethanol price support [5]. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales in the peak season were poor, and imports in August hit a new high. Typhoons have affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [6]. Strategy - The sugar price may be supported by the typhoon - affected production, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify due to trade friction [7]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 4842 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+1.13%) from the previous day [8]. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of pulp in Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some falling [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have plans to increase prices, reduce production, and transfer production, but the actual impact on supply is limited. Domestic port inventory remains high [9]. - Demand: Global pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale raw material purchases [9]. Strategy - The pulp price may continue to oscillate at the bottom due to the tariff war and weak fundamentals [10].

化工日报 | 2025-10-14 青岛港口库存继续下降，但降幅放缓 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14940元/吨，较前一日变动-375元/吨；NR主力合约12040元/吨，较前一日变动-310 元/吨；BR主力合约10920元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14300元/吨，较前一日变动-250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14450元/吨，较前一 日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1820美元/吨，较前一日变动-30美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1705 美元/吨，较前一日变动-35美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11200元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年9月，我国重卡市场销量约为10.5万辆（批发口径，含出口和新能源），同比增长约82%，环比增长15%，创 下近年同期新高。 2025年9月中国天然及合成橡胶（包含胶乳）进口量74.2万吨，环比增加11.75%，同比增加20.85%；1-9月累计进口 量611.50万吨，累计同比增加19. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The domestic supply pressure remains as the domestic smelting profit narrows but does not affect the smelting seasonality. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally, strengthening the linkage between the Shanghai zinc price and overseas macro factors. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to tariff trade wars, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $100.45 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 101,699 lots. The highest price was 22,450 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,100 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a change of - 475 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory has fallen below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium continues to strengthen. Although tariff trade wars cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差38元/吨（+32）。纯苯港口库存9.00万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨（+4 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费116美元/吨（+3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差72.5美元/吨（-4.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货 -M2价差70元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1920元/吨（-65），酚酮生产利润-618元/吨（-312），苯胺生产利润478元/吨（+140）， 己二酸生产利润-1373元/吨（-50）。己内酰胺开工率96.00%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-1.00%），苯胺开工率 77.16%（+1.12%），己二酸开工率66.90%（+4.00%）。 纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-14 苯乙烯港口库存压力持续 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差15元/吨（-17元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-499元/吨（-15元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存196500吨（-5400吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存121500吨（+5100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.6%（+2 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-14 现货成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-13，尿素主力收盘1610元/吨（+13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1520 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-80 元/吨（-33）；河南基差：-90元/吨（-33）；江苏基差：-80元/吨（-43）；尿素生产利润0元/吨（-10），出口利润982 元/吨（+11）。 供应端：截至2025-10-13，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-13，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交情绪较好，部分厂家小幅上调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥 进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多，今年冬小麦用肥需 ...

化工日报 | 2025-10-14 宏观风险暂时可控，聚酯产业链跌后反弹 市场要闻与数据 上周五中美关税战再度发酵，美国威胁将对中国加征100%关税，这一税率足以使得中美贸易再次中断，市场恐慌 下上周五晚至周六凌晨原油大幅下跌。但10月12日晚间，美国副总统万斯在接受采访时候，针对特朗普的最新关 税威胁，释放了一些缓和的信号。周一原油开盘低位反弹，受此影响，周一PTA期货小幅低开，日内TA2601合约 维持在4500元/吨上下波动。 市场分析 成本端，国庆节后中国的进口需求放缓与美国出口增加形成明显剪刀差，叠加中东出口增加，供应过剩的矛盾已 经开始兑现；上周五中美关税战再度发酵，美国威胁将对中国加征100%关税，这一税率足以使得中美贸易再次中 断，市场恐慌下上周五晚至周六凌晨原油大幅下跌。但10月12日晚间，美国副总统万斯在接受采访时候，针对特 朗普的最新关税威胁，释放了一些缓和的信号。周一原油开盘低位反弹，受此影响，周一PTA期货小幅低开，日内 TA2601合约维持在4500元/吨上下波动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN221美元/吨(环比变动-3.50美元/吨）。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行；随 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, and stainless steel prices are expected to continue weak operation [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 149,002 (-10,068) lots, and the open interest was 74,700 (-3,140) lots. Influenced by the US president's remarks, there are concerns about the escalation of Sino - US tariff friction, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened low and moved low, and the LME inventory has reached the highest level since October 17, 2022 [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and prices are stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF44 without a deal. In the Philippines, the tender result of 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen Mine in Zambales is pending. The price of downstream nickel - iron has declined, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories are preparing for "winter storage". In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply is loose, with the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium at +26 [1] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is fair, and the premium and discount of refined nickel are slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 25,272 (44) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 242,094 (4,716) tons [2] Group 4: Strategy of Nickel - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 5: Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,989 (+134,394) lots, and the open interest was 176,416 (-4,171) lots. Similar to Shanghai nickel, affected by the US president's remarks, the overall trend of metal futures is weak, and stainless steel also opened low and moved low [3] Spot - Due to the sharp decline in the futures market and weak demand, market confidence is severely hit, and spot trading is light. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 13,150 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,100 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 480 - 780 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 951.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Strategy of Stainless Steel - It is recommended to take a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]