Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On July 17, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.113 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.4456 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.6467 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.087 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1.537 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 0.0397 million contracts; CSI 300 index options was 0.0993 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 0.273 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.63, with a month - on - month change of - 0.20; the position PCR was 1.04, with a month - on - month change of + 0.02. Similar data for other options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, SSE 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [2] - A table presents the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, position PCR, and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [29] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 15.05%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.06%; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 15.43%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.23%; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 19.41%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.32%; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 18.17%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.47%; ChiNext ETF options was 22.74%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.36%; SSE 50 index options was 17.23%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.49%; CSI 300 index options was 16.98%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.33%; and CSI 1000 index options was 20.27%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.54% [3] - A table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of treasury bond futures is rated as neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 trillion repurchase, the treasury bond yield has declined. The bond market will continue its short - term volatile pattern, and in the medium - to - long - term, it will maintain a bullish foundation supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress, as well as the necessity of adjusting the duration [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's monthly PPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.33 and a growth rate of 0.34%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1790, with a decrease of 0.002 and a decline rate of - 0.03%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.50, with no change; DR007 is 1.52, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of - 0.44%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with no change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01 [8] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.44 yuan, 106.05 yuan, 108.89 yuan, and 120.73 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.02%, and - 0.02% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.019 yuan, - 0.043 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.083 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - On July 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 450.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.463%, 1.504%, 1.553%, and 1.539% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread in different combinations such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][39][40] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, as well as the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][45][52] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It presents the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54][52] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62][64] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial Silicon: Short - term watch [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in the long - term [6][8] 2. Report Core View - Industrial silicon's supply - demand pattern has improved due to low开工 of northwest and southwest factories and lower - than - usual production in the southwest, with reduced inventory. The overall commodity sentiment has a positive impact, but the influence of policies on the industrial silicon industry needs attention. For polysilicon, recent price increases are driven by policies and funds. Policy implementation and price transmission need to be monitored, and it is suitable for long - term low - level long - position layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,750 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous settlement. The main contract's open interest was 381,048 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, an increase of 142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,800 yuan/ton this week, while the prices of other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable. The market's mainstream transaction center was around 10,800 yuan/ton. Although the low - price quotes in the domestic market increased slightly, the matching degree of transactions decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term watch, and short - position holders should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 43,900 yuan/ton and closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, a 7.49% increase from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 70,964 lots (71,783 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 410,795 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 36.60 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.80 yuan/kg), dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 44.50 - 49.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.25 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 GW, a decrease of 5.70%. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 5.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.10 GW, a decrease of 3.37% [4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.25 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.67 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.32 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.28 yuan/piece) [4]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. - **Strategy** - In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions when the price is low. In the short - term, be cautiously bullish [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain; exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. The government may further strengthen pro - growth policies in the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After passing the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump shifted his focus to external pressure to advance tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff events on demand expectations [2]. - Domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new - energy metal sectors, while overseas inflation expectations benefit the energy and non - ferrous sectors. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment weakened, exports were under pressure, and only consumption was resilient. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw - material industries. The growth of industrial added value and new - energy vehicle and industrial robot production was rapid in June, while the growth of social retail sales slowed down. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing declined, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and automotive have been expected to increase, and some commodity prices have recovered [1]. - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, shifting the US from a stage of "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to a stage of "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten" policies. The Fed may consider a rate cut, and tariff negotiations are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a medium - term supply - side easing. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - The market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell and may impose tariffs on Japan and other countries. The eurozone's June inflation data met expectations [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-18 绝对价格：中性 目前国内矿端供应仍然相对偏紧，不过旺季需求的体现暂时并不十分明显，同时有色板块整体相对偏弱也拖累铅 价走势，因此当下操作上暂时以高抛低吸或观望为主。 期权策略：暂缓 风险 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 下游观望情绪仍然较重 铅价震荡下行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-07-17，LME铅现货升水为-31.02美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16700 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-30.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至16725元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16700元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至16725元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10250元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10500元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-07-17，沪铅主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Suspended 2. Core View of the Report This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in the copper price in non - US markets. As a result, the domestic copper price was temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for now [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, a - 0.18% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,800 yuan/ton and closed at 77,620 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 60 - 150 yuan/ton to the current 2508 contract, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 77,950 - 78,090 yuan/ton. The intraday trading weakened, and the spot premium may further decline today [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumer prices. The US unemployment rate is 4.1%, and inflation is above the 2% target [3]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.1% [3]. - **Mine End**: In the second quarter of 2025, Rio Tinto's copper production reached 229,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 9% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company maintained its annual production target of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In the second quarter, 29Metals' Golden Grove project in Western Australia produced 5,600 tons of copper, lower than the previous year. China's refined copper production in June 2025 was 1.302 million tons, a 14.2% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Consumption**: China's copper product output in June 2025 was 2.214 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 10,525 tons to 122,150 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 8,103 tons to 42,139 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Table of Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: The premium of SMM 1 copper on July 18, 2025, was 105, with changes compared to the previous day, week, and month [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 122,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 81,462 tons, and COMEX inventory was 217,212 tons on July 18, 2025 [27]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 42,139 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 10.19% on July 18, 2025 [28]. - **Arbitrage**: The import profit was - 2 on July 18, 2025, and there were also data on other arbitrage indicators [28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall grain production in the year has a good foundation. Summer grain production achieved stable yields and a bumper harvest, with a national summer grain output of 299.48 billion catties, the second - highest in history after last year [1]. - The retail price threshold for the super - luxury car consumption tax has been adjusted to 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) [1]. - Guangzhou is soliciting opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different measures based on the housing provident fund personal housing loan rate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry** - The scope of super - luxury cars subject to consumption tax has been adjusted to include vehicles with a retail price of 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) and above of various power types [1]. - Summer grain production overcame drought in some areas, achieving stable yields and laying a solid foundation for annual grain production [1]. - **Service Industry** - Guangzhou is seeking public opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different control measures based on the loan - to - deposit ratio [2]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - International oil prices are fluctuating [3]. - Egg prices are rising [3]. - **Mid - stream** - The operating rates of polyester and PX are stable [4]. - **Downstream** - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are stable at a low level [5]. - The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [5]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Different industries have different credit spread values and trends. For example, the credit spread of the real estate industry decreased from 101.86 last week to 99.89 this week, with a quantile of 2.70 [48]. D. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries have different price trends. For instance, the spot price of corn in the agricultural industry was 2327.1 yuan/ton on July 17, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%, while the spot price of eggs was 5.8 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 4.91% [49].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-18 铝锭库存小幅回落对铝价形成支撑 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20570元/吨，较上一交易日上涨50元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨10元/吨至110元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20440元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨20元/吨至-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20550元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨5元/吨至85元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-17日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨，收于20415元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨15元/ 吨，涨幅0.07%，最高价达20465元/吨，最低价达到20390元/吨。全天交易日成交102174手，较上一交易日增 加28925手，全天交易日持仓268542手，较上一交易日增加74084手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-17，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存49.2万吨。截止2025-07-17，LME铝库存427200 吨，较前一交易日增加3675吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-17 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3170元/吨，山东价格录得 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit on rallies [3] Core Viewpoints - Some urea plants restarted, leading to a continuous increase in capacity utilization and a rising supply pressure. Production remains at a high level. It is currently the peak agricultural demand season, with agricultural demand continuing to advance. Compound fertilizer production has increased, and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizers has begun, resulting in a phased increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with melamine production decreasing month-on-month and the panel industry sluggish. Urea exports are improving, with increased port collection intentions, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories and a decrease in upstream factory inventories [2] Section Summaries 1. Urea Basis Structure - Analyzes the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and the price spreads between different periods [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Focuses on the weekly urea production and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal-based and gas-based urea [20][27] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Examines the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic and Southeast Asia, as well as the export profit and the profit on the futures market [29][31][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Considers the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine production, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Looks at the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [49][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent warming of the macro - atmosphere and rain disturbances in rubber main - producing areas have driven the continuous rebound of futures prices. With China in the seasonal import off - season in July and Thai processing plants still in a loss situation for shipping to Chinese ports, the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the end of semi - steel tire maintenance, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term as domestic butadiene supply has decreased slightly, port inventory has continued to decline, and the restart of downstream maintenance devices has boosted butadiene demand. With butadiene rubber in a loss situation, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continued rebound of butadiene rubber. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week as the number of maintenance devices decreases, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,585 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,710 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from the previous year [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, an 18.1% year - on - year increase and a 7.6% month - on - month increase. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a 10.8% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 15 yuan/ton (+35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 245 yuan/ton (+45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,694 yuan/ton (+89.97), the NR basis was 135 yuan/ton (+1), full - latex was 14,650 yuan/ton (+200), mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton (+120), 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), STR20 was quoted at 1,780 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene was 2,420 yuan/ton (+120) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 65.90 baht/kg (+0.25), Thai glue was 54.50 baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 48.55 baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.95 baht/kg (unchanged) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+1,811), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 95), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+100), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 977 yuan/ton (+90) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]