Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ore price is still in a game stage. Domestic mines in northern China are affected by rainfall, and alumina plants are facing losses, so it is difficult to give a premium to the ore end. The rainy season in Guinea is coming to an end, but the port arrival volume has not recovered, the port inventory has slightly declined, and the price of imported ore is relatively firm. Currently, alumina plants have not triggered production cuts. Later, attention should be paid to the fluctuation of imported ore prices. If the ore price does not fall, the situation of cash - flow losses cannot be maintained for a long time, and enterprises in Henan with insufficient domestic ore supply will face greater difficulties. From the perspective of Henan, there is no negative impact on the consumption end. Although the overall operating rate has declined year - on - year, the output has increased year - on - year, and the growth rate is higher than the national average. Affected by capacity expansion, local processing enterprises may face problems such as insufficient orders, low operating rates, and low processing fees, but in actual production, they have not shown cash - flow losses through methods such as increasing the amount of scrap added and increasing scale to reduce costs, and the overall output is still guaranteed [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Henan Alumina in Operation with Imported Ore Capacity Faces Pressure - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6%. There are currently only 5 alumina factories in production, all of which are large - scale group enterprises [9]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [9]. - The reason why production cuts have not been triggered is not that the price is too low, but mainly because the loss period is not long enough. Calculated according to the cash cost and the alumina website quotation, the production with imported ore in Henan started to lose money in mid - to - early September, and the three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [9]. - Alumina winter storage has no impact on Henan. The monthly alumina output in Henan is 650,000 tons, while the monthly electrolytic aluminum output is only 150,000 tons. The local alumina supply is sufficient and the transportation distance is short. Even in case of extreme weather in winter, the impact is extremely limited. Moreover, the relocation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Henan is the mainstream trend [10]. 2. Research on Enterprises in Henan's Alumina Industry - Enterprise 1: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 2.6 million tons. It has 4 roasting furnaces, with 3 in operation at present, with a daily output of 1,800 tons. The annual sales of non - metallurgical alumina and aluminum hydroxide reach 1.7 million tons. It uses more than 100,000 tons of domestic ore per month, accounting for about 25%, which is a relatively low level in Henan. The bauxite inventory is 1.5 months. There is no cash - flow loss in September, and the high cost is mainly due to the high - priced ore in the previous period in the current bauxite inventory [11]. - Enterprise 2: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 1.4 million tons. It shut down a 400,000 - ton imported ore production line in the first half of the year and has no plan to resume production. Currently, all 1 million tons use local domestic ore from its own mines, and the probability of further shutdown is very low. It may reduce production due to environmental protection factors such as natural gas in winter, but the impact is limited. Lithium extraction has been carried out in the production process, with an annual output of more than 1,000 tons of lithium, and the cost is higher than that of lithium extraction from salt lakes [11]. - Enterprise 3: A Henan electrolytic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 360,000 tons operating at full capacity. 70,000 tons of production capacity has been transferred to Ningxia, and the remaining capacity will also be transferred later. It sells 100% of its products through long - term agreements. The alumina raw material inventory is 5 days, but the tailings are not very useful, and the actual available inventory is 2 days. It does not carry out winter storage, and the nearest alumina plant is only 20 kilometers away, so it can ensure supply even in case of extreme weather [11]. 3. Henan's Processing Enterprises' Dilemma Does Not Equal Poor Consumption - The supply of aluminum elements and the supply of aluminum processed products are in two different dimensions. Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [24]. - Aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils are the most mainstream primary processed products, accounting for a large proportion of aluminum consumption. As of now, the output of aluminum rods in 2025 is about 13.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 9.637 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils in Henan from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [24]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and enterprise profitability is difficult. However, this is not due to poor consumption. The output growth rate of aluminum strips and foils in Henan has long been higher than the national average, but the processing fees need to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum processing plants, resulting in a poor feeling for Henan's processing plants [24]. 4. Research on Henan's Aluminum Processing Enterprises - Enterprise 3: An aluminum strip processing enterprise. It purchases 40% of the molten aluminum from local aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price, and the remaining 60% is aluminum ingots for easy adjustment of production. Its built - in capacity is 70,000 - 80,000 tons, and the current operating rate is over 60%, which has increased compared with the off - season, but was 100% in the same period last year. The overall operating rate of aluminum strip and foil enterprises in Gongyi is 50% - 60%, which is difficult for factories to make a profit. The discount for molten aluminum procurement has been narrowing year by year, and electrolytic aluminum plants are in a strong position in sales. If aluminum ingots are remelted, about 40 cubic meters of natural gas are needed, and it is rare for the discount of aluminum ingot procurement in Gongyi to exceed 200 yuan/ton. There are also losses in remelting, and the electrolyte loss for purchasing molten aluminum is about 150 yuan/ton. 20% of the downstream consumption is exported through traders, and the normal finished product inventory is 1,000 tons. If the inventory exceeds the normal level, the operating rate will be considered to be reduced [25]. - Enterprise 2: An aluminum rod processing enterprise. It purchases 100% of the molten aluminum from surrounding electrolytic aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price. Previously, the discount could reach 200 yuan/ton. Due to long - term agreements, it cannot adjust production and operates at 100% throughout the year. The electrolyte loss is 0.5%, and the total loss in the production process is 1.2%. The maximum annual loss is 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and currently it is at the break - even point. Since there are no costs such as bank interest, depreciation, and land, it still makes a profit. There were originally 4 aluminum rod processing enterprises in the park, and now only this one remains. It needs to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod plants in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, so the competition is difficult. Local downstream processing enterprises often expand production through loans to reduce costs, but the processing profit has been declining year by year, and the method of blind expansion is unsustainable [26]. 5. Summary Alumina - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6% [37]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [37]. - The three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [37]. Downstream Consumption - Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [38]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and the overall operating rate is about 60%. However, the cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [38].

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-14 港口基差快速走强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润678元/吨（+15）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2083元/吨（+15），内蒙北线基差341元/吨（-20），内蒙南线2080元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2330元/吨（+25）， 鲁南基差188元/吨（-20）；河南2190元/吨（-5），河南基差48元/吨（-40）；河北2245元/吨（+0），河北基差163元/ 吨（-35）。隆众内地工厂库存339400吨（+19460），西北工厂库存204000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单115240 吨（-157782），西北工厂待发订单63200吨（-90800）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2300元/吨（+55），太仓基差-42元/吨（+40），CFR中国256美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-14元 /吨（+11），常州甲醇2425元/吨；广东甲醇2300元/吨（+65），广东基差-42元/吨（+40）。隆众港口总库存1543230 吨（+51040），江苏港口库存793000吨（+14000），浙江 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral to bullish [3] - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core Views - Apple prices are oscillating downward, and red dates' futures and spot prices are stable but weak. For apples, the supply of new-season late Fuji is limited due to weather, and prices are expected to show a significant polarization. For red dates, the new season's harvest is approaching, and the market is in a transition period with relatively stable prices and uncertain future trends [1][2][3][4][6][7] Market News and Key Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,638 yuan/ton, a change of -106 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.21%. - Spot: The price of semi-commodity late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 3.85 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was -938, a change of +106 from the previous day. - Recent news: The supply of red late Fuji in the new season's main producing areas is limited. The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 0.5 - 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year. The demand in the sales areas has not improved after the holidays. Merchants are cautious overall but active in purchasing high-quality goods. This week, the late Fuji in the eastern and western regions will be on the market successively, and the price polarization is obvious [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,130 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.13%. - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was -1,630, a change of +15 from the previous day. - Recent news: The new-season red dates in the Xinjiang main producing area are about to be harvested, and the harvest time may be about a week earlier than last year. Inland merchants are going to the producing areas to prepare for the new season, and the price range for orchard reservation has expanded [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price oscillated downward. The supply of red late Fuji in the main producing areas was limited due to slow coloring caused by rain. The prices in various regions increased year-on-year, and the price difference between regions and qualities was significant. The demand in the sales areas did not improve after the holidays. Merchants were cautious overall but active in purchasing high-quality goods. This week, the late Fuji in the eastern and western regions will be on the market successively, and the price polarization is obvious. In the future, attention should be paid to the game between merchants' purchasing mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2] Red Dates - The red dates futures price oscillated narrowly yesterday. The red dates are in a critical period of transition between peak and off-peak seasons and "new and old seasons." The grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing area are about to be harvested, and merchants have started to make small-scale orchard reservations. Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the sales areas' spot market this week is average, with mainly rigid demand from downstream buyers. The spot price fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is relatively light. The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in previous years, and the inventory pressure remains. The supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The output of red dates in the 2024 production season was large, the inventory was high, but the quality was poor. It is expected that the new-season output will be between 560,000 and 620,000 tons. The growth of red dates has not shown unexpected changes, and the weather is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. Currently, the quality of red dates is better than the same period last year [6] Strategies Apple - Neutral to bullish. Currently, the late Fuji is sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large amount of red goods, and the purchasing period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high-quality goods will be stable and firm, with obvious polarization [3] Red Dates - Neutral. Overall, if the output and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the red dates futures price will face a situation of limited upward movement and strong support below, showing an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and output changes [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Holders of previous short positions can take appropriate profit, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. There are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is facing pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and potential for further growth. Saudi CP official prices are continuously decreasing, and high arrival volumes and port inventories in China are suppressing the domestic market. Downstream chemical profits are shrinking, limiting the growth of chemical terminal demand, and the improvement in combustion terminal consumption after the off - season is weak. There is a lack of positive factors in the market. Although price drops may lead to profit repair and increased buying, the threat of US tariffs adds new uncertainties, so short - term caution is recommended [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On October 13, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3960 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; East China market, 4240 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4670 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of November 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 532 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 512 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4159 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 4002 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 527 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 507 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4120 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 3963 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Recently, the LPG futures market has been weak, and the basis has strengthened. Spot prices in various regions mainly declined yesterday. In the East China civil gas market, the mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with sufficient supply and average market sentiment [1] Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - after carbon four in multiple regions, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing progress is good, with some producing areas setting new records. There are strong expectations of a bumper harvest in North America, and the global soybean supply is sufficient. Palm oil production remains at a relatively high level. Although the biodiesel policy may provide some support for prices, the market is currently a mix of long and short factors, resulting in a volatile market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan or 0.41%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan or 0.39% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 + -144 yuan, a decrease of 146 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.06%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 162 yuan, a decrease of 56 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 298 yuan, an increase of 29 yuan [1] Market Information Aggregation - Brazilian Crop Sowing: As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 14%, making it the third - fastest sowing progress in the same period. The current sowing progress is higher than 9% a week ago and 8% in the same period last year. The sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - crop corn has reached 45% of the planned planting area in the central - southern region, higher than 41% in the same period last year [2] - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons or 1.31% from the previous week. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous week [2] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From October 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.02% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11%, and the output increased by 6.59% [2] - Import Prices: There were various price adjustments for imported agricultural products, including decreases in the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, American and Brazilian soybeans, and some adjustments in the C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance. The Fed official's dovish signal on interest rate cuts and the global risk asset pullback due to tariff issues have strengthened the safe-haven property of gold. Silver also benefits from the same macro - factors and spot shortages [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year and believes that monetary policy should ignore the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases. Economists have raised the US economic growth forecast for this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. The expected inflation - adjusted US GDP growth this year is 1.8%, up from 1.3% in June [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 904.88 yuan/gram, closed at 927.56 yuan/gram, a 2.88% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 936.72 yuan/gram, up 0.99% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,189.00 yuan/kg, closed at 11,531.00 yuan/kg, a 4.05% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,879,157 lots, and the open interest was 495,579 lots. The night - session closed at 11,710 yuan/kg, up 1.55% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, up 0.38 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.531%, up 0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 5 lots, and the short position changed by 254 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 618,953 lots, a 100.67% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,823,544 lots, a 161.01% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,017.16 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,754 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 23.21 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,081.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.44, a - 0.62% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 78.76, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 63,730 kg, a 38.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,573,640 kg, a 20.02% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,492 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 144,840 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 925 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram. - Silver: The Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,500 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The tariff issue has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum, and there are still many favorable factors overseas. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff issue in the short term [6]. - The alumina market at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 13, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was -50 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by -10 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by -5 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,040 yuan/ton, closed at 20,885 yuan/ton, a change of -205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,050 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 20,730 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 191,737 lots, and the position was 170,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the SMM statistics showed that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 63,151 tons, a change of 4,032 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 506,000 tons, a change of -2,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,120 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,856 yuan/ton, closed at 2,820 yuan/ton, a change of -57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of -1.98%, a maximum price of 2,856 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 288,895 lots, and the position was 351,910 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in-plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum. The overseas macro favorable factors still exist, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - **Alumina**: The spot markets at home and abroad have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is neutral, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Shanghai aluminum positive spread [9]

丙烯日报 | 2025-10-14 策略 单边：震荡偏弱； 跨期：PL01-02逢高反套； 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动；上游装置检修动态；丙烷价格变动；中美贸易冲突 供需延续疲软，丙烯偏弱运行 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6177元/吨（-28），丙烯华东现货价6185元/吨（-40），丙烯华北现货价6210元/吨（-180）， 丙烯华东基差8元/吨（-77），丙烯华北基差33元/吨（-232）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR203 美元/吨（+3），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR107美元/吨（-30），进口利润-352元/吨（+39），厂内库存43390吨（-1520）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率39%（+2.01%），生产利润15元/吨（+140）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润-344 元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润188元/吨（+132）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润157元/ 吨（+130）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1209元/吨（+96）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-65 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unspecified Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Demand improvement is limited, and the average spot price continues to decline [1] - Although some northern regions' weather cleared up and road projects resumed construction, the overall demand for asphalt increased minimally, and the market has a weak outlook on future demand. The low - level oscillation of asphalt futures also negatively affects the spot market sentiment. Considering the increased macro - risks, the volatility of the crude oil end may significantly increase, disturbing the asphalt market. Short - term caution is advised [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 13, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3302 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton or 1.32% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 103,287 lots, a decrease of 4,913 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 109,080 lots, a decrease of 44,528 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3706 - 4086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3400 - 3720 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3430 - 3490 yuan/ton in South China, and 3510 - 3600 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in the Northeast, North China, and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-14 现货价格小幅上调，多晶硅期货盘面下方仍有支撑 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-13，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8595元/吨，最后收于8805元/吨，较前一日结算变化（80） 元/吨，变化（0.92）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓165722手，2025-10-13仓单总数为50854手，较前一日变化 573手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计10月9日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.5万吨，较国庆节前增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较 节前环比持平，社会交割仓库42.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较节前增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11100-11500（250）元/吨。有机硅DMC市场上行，报价 ...