1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 8 - month contract price of shipping rates is oscillating at a high level, with a game over delivery. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, focusing on the downward slope of shipping rates. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to oscillate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has a price of 1885/3170 in week 31, and HPL's quotes increase from the second half of July to the first half of August [1]. - The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route varies by month. In August, there are 3 blank sailings from the OA alliance, and there are new additional vessels from Maersk in weeks 32 and 34 [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The price is oscillating at a high level. Some companies try to increase prices, and it is estimated that the shipping rate in August will be similar to that in July. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a seasonal contract for the off - season, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of shipping rates. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to festivals and long - term agreement negotiations, shipping rates are usually at a high level. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4][5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 83,537 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,745 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1486.40, EC2508 at 2291.90, etc. [5]. - On July 18, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes are 2079.00 dollars/TEU, 2142.00 dollars/FEU, and 3612.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On July 21, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 2400.50 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 1301.81 points [5]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. 3.5 Strategy - **Unilateral strategy**: The main contract is expected to oscillate. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].

FICC日报 | 2025-07-22 业绩亮眼板块表现占优 市场分析 关注中欧关系。国内方面，商务部回应欧盟对俄制裁列单中国企业和金融机构表示，中方敦促欧方立即停止列单 中国企业和金融机构的错误做法。中方将采取必要措施，坚决维护中国企业和金融机构的正当合法权益。海外方 面，美国财政部长贝森特批评美联储对关税的\"恐慌宣传\"，指出关税迄今几乎没有产生通胀效应，强调需要审查 美联储是否成功履行职责，同时明确表示特朗普政府更注重贸易协议质量而非时间节点。 沪指上行。现货市场，A股三大指数延续震荡上行态势，上证指数涨0.72%收于3559.79点，创业板指涨0.87%。行 业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，建筑材料、建筑装饰、钢铁、有色金属行业领涨，仅银行、计算机、家用电器行业 收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额增加至1.7万亿元。海外市场，随着特朗普设定的8月1日关税最后期限临近，美国三 大股指涨跌不一，道指跌0.04%，标普500指数、纳指均创历史新高。 IM增仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货均贴水，IM贴水程度较深。成交持仓方面，期指成交量下降，IC、IM持 仓量增加。 策略 政策持续落地为市场带来"转机"，资金面呈现量价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Neutral [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream开工率 declining and processing fees facing losses. However, the inventory accumulation is not smooth, and long - term supply is restricted while consumption has stable growth [3]. - The alumina supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Although the spot market doesn't show surplus and the price is short - term strong, the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, with the price following the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum - Spot: On July 21, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,560 yuan/ton, closed at 20,840 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton (1.63% increase) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 220,654 lots, an increase of 91,618 lots, and the position was 316,907 lots, an increase of 34,252 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 498,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 434,425 tons, an increase of 3,725 tons from the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,185 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,265 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,161 yuan/ton, closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan/ton (8.39% increase) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 993,037 lots, an increase of 657,075 lots, and the position was 221,548 lots, an increase of 11,189 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 19, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15,200 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 37,200 tons, a weekly increase of 5,800 tons; the in - factory inventory was 63,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons; the total inventory was 101,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Seasonal off - peak season: The downstream开工率 has declined, and the production of aluminum rods and aluminum plates, strips, and foils has decreased significantly. The social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but it's not smooth, and if the inventory doesn't exceed 600,000 tons, it's considered a bullish factor [3]. - Long - term: Supply is restricted while consumption has stable growth. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity has no impact on the supply side, but the actual impact on the consumption side needs attention [3]. 3.2.2 Alumina - Spot market: On Friday, there were three transactions in the north totaling 19,000 tons, and on Monday, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, with the delivered price 50 - 60 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction [4][5]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply is slightly in surplus, and the inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market doesn't show surplus, and the price is short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the 08 and 09 contracts are still adding positions, with the 09 contract having a high position [5]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - Consumption off - peak season: The price follows the aluminum price, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 Single - side - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market for oilseeds will fluctuate, with future focus on supply - demand and weather conditions [1] - The soybeans market is currently in a state of oversupply, and the prices in Anhui and Jiangsu may change due to the large - scale listing of early - maturing soybeans in Hubei [2] - For peanuts, there are concerns about a potential reduction in the new - season yield due to drought in Henan, and the attitude of holders of high - quality cold - storage peanuts towards price support has strengthened, but demand - side procurement is cautious [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2509 contract yesterday was 4199.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A09 + 101, down 10 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices remained stable today, with prices in different regions unchanged from the previous day [1] - Market Situation: Yesterday, the bean one futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Today, Sinograin will start two - way auctions, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The situation outside the pass is stable, while inside the pass, due to the listing of early - maturing soybeans in Hubei and weak off - season demand, inquiries and purchases have decreased, and old soybean prices are under pressure. Domestic spot prices in the Northeast have good growth conditions, and prices inside the pass are stable with a weakening trend. Downstream enterprise operations are stable, and the market state is unlikely to change significantly. After mid - August, the market may change with the start of preparations for the new semester [2] - **Strategy** - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [1] Peanut View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8206.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 - 106.00, up 16.00 or - 13.11% from the previous day. The domestic peanut market was oscillating and stable yesterday, with raw material procurement in production areas basically completed, mainly trading cold - storage goods, and general inquiry and purchase. Peanut prices vary in different regions [3] - Market Situation: Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated weakly. Currently, raw material procurement in production areas has basically ended, and the market mainly trades cold - storage goods. There are concerns about a reduction in the new - season peanut yield due to drought in Henan, and imports are still low. Holders of high - quality cold - storage peanuts have a stronger attitude towards price support, but demand - side procurement is cautious. Future attention should be paid to rainfall in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [3] - **Risk** - The risk for peanuts is weakening demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core Viewpoints - Policy promotes the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and the macro - level has a certain boost to the polyolefin market. New device overhauls in production enterprises ease some supply - demand pressure, but some devices restart. PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. Crude oil is weakly sorted, propane prices continue to be weak, cost - side support is weak. Downstream demand remains weak in the seasonal consumption off - season, and new order volume is limited. In the short - term future, there are no new overhaul plans, and supply is expected to increase. With weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7290元/吨（+74），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（+78），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（+80），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+50），LL华北基差为 - 90元/吨（+6），LL华东基差为 - 100元/吨（ - 74），PP华东基差为29元/吨（ - 28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.2% (+0.4%), PP operating rate is 77.3% (+0.7%). PE oil - based production profit is 74.8 yuan/ton (+14.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 285.2 yuan/ton (+14.8), PDH - based PP production profit is 315.8 yuan/ton (+14.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 142.0 yuan/ton (-4.8), PP import profit is - 694.2 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP export profit is 36.8 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.5% (-0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.4% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. In the future, with weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is not explicitly mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market maintains a volatile trend with limited driving forces. The current situation shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations in the crude oil market, resulting in limited guidance on the cost side for asphalt. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory levels. The market has a certain level of support but lacks upward momentum, awaiting new variables [1]. - The recommended trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral oscillation, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 21, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,657 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 223,360 lots, a decrease of 4,713 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,580 lots, a decrease of 15,006 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,640 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the Shandong market declined yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures and Data - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract), futures spreads, trading volume and open interest, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such plants for pure benzene and styrene accounting for 18% and 8% respectively, and subsequent progress should be monitored [3] - BZ futures still maintain a certain premium, there is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand of BZ downstream is okay, but the high - start CPL and styrene start to decline. In terms of supply, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production start is still high, with the pure benzene processing fee continuing to consolidate weakly [3] - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB start has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS start has rebounded, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers persists, which may drag down subsequent start [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts; EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [8][11][14] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures involve naphtha processing fee, difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profit of styrene, differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf and CFR China, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][21][31] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate; styrene's East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures cover EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, ABS operating rate and production profit [51][55][56] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][71][82] Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene, and short - hedge styrene on rallies [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the near - term BZ paper cargo against the distant BZ2603 futures on rallies; do reverse spreads on the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period [4] - Cross - Variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range trading for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7] 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern has improved recently. With the impact of anti - involution policies, rising prices of coking coal, and potential electricity price hikes in the northwest, the industrial silicon futures market is expected to be bullish [3] - Polysilicon: There are many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry. The market is volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to risk management. Long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton (4.99%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 383,296 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,141 lots, a decrease of 252 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton) [1] - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume in June was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 5,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [2] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,700 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises closed their DMC quotes. The price is expected to rise due to enterprise closures and sudden supply - side production cuts. Some monomer production capacities in North China and Zhejiang are expected to resume production, while some in Shandong are temporarily shut down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 45,280 yuan/ton and closing at 45,660 yuan/ton, a 3.36% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172,057 lots (155,539 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 621,314 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month decrease of 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month decrease of 5.70%). The weekly polysilicon production was 23,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.00%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.10GW (a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%) [6] - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece) [6] - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-22 供应充裕，市场维持弱势 市场分析 1、\t7月21日地区价格：山东市场，4580-4670；东北市场，4190-4380；华北市场，4475-4680；华东市场，4380-4650； 沿江市场，4470-4610；西北市场，4000-4250；华南市场，4498-4650。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2、\t2025年8月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷555美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4370元/吨，跌14元/吨，丁烷4228元/吨，跌7元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷549美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷534美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4323元/吨，跌38元/吨，丁烷4205元/吨，跌6元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG基本面当前表现疲软，市场维持弱势运行。现货方面，市场主流价格维稳，购销顺畅，卖方库存可控，下游 按需采购为主。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，7月份到港量再度增加 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Strong macro and weak demand lead to a rapid decline in spot premiums. Although the downstream开工率 shows relative resilience and overall consumption is not bad, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a rapid decline in spot premiums in the spot market, which have now generally turned into discounts. The overseas inventory has the expectation of delivery risk, and the domestic social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, which is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may re - dominate the price trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $4.75/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the spot premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 540 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 105 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,420 yuan/ton and closed at 22,925 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 251,405 lots, an increase of 100,339 lots from the previous trading day. The positions were 133,314 lots, an increase of 17,346 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,415 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 21, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 118,225 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, due to the policy - driven rise in absolute prices and weak consumption, the spot premium further declined. On the cost side, the imported ore TC continues to rise, and the smelting profit is maintained, with the expectation of an increase in supply remaining unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very enthusiastic about purchasing from the ore end. On the consumption side, although the downstream开工率 shows relative resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]