航运日报 | 2025-10-14 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065；ONE 10月下半月价格1175/1835；HMM上海-鹿特 丹10月下半月价格1118/1806; YML 10/15-10/31报价1000/1700。MSC发布11/1-11/15日涨价函 1620/2700。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格1210/2020；EMC 10月下半月船期报价1355/2060；OOCL 10 月下半月价格1175/1850,11月份船期报价1550/2600。CMA发布11月份涨价函1500/2600. 地缘端：当地时间12日，也门胡塞武装政治局成员在接受采访时表示，如果以色列方面能够遵守当前的加沙地带 停火协议，胡塞武装就会停止袭击红海海域以色列以及与以方有关的船只。不过，胡塞武装将持续监控以方对协 议的遵守情况。若以方重启对加沙的军事行动和封锁，他们将遭到胡塞武装更猛烈的军事打击。 动态供给：中国-欧基港10月份剩余三周周均运力27.61万TEU，WEEK42/43/44周运力分别为22.98/26.95/3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the US soybean and domestic bean meal markets is mainly fluctuating due to the lack of data updates caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, and attention should be paid to policy changes. For corn, the overall production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the new - season corn is listed. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September 2025, imports were 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2] - **Sowing Progress**: As of October 10, Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area for 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% at the same time last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The US soybean and domestic bean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly fluctuating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.55%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - **Production Forecast**: The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina's corn production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than the previous year's 50 million tons. As of October 8, the corn sowing progress in Argentina was 25.6%, 7.9% faster than the same period last year [5] - **Export Data**: As of October 10, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 7.19 million tons, lower than 11.739 million tons in the same period last year [5] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, the new - season corn in some northeastern regions has started to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the concentrated listing. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面大幅下跌，现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，以刚需为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃依旧维持供应宽松、需求偏弱、去库压力较大的问题，目前价格运行至低位，外部宏观扰动时 常引发价格偏强反弹，建议关注高位做空机会，同时留意后续供给端产线变化。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-14 下游需求偏弱，玻璃大幅下跌 玻璃纯碱：下游需求偏弱，玻璃大幅下跌 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱盘面低开偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游刚需补库为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧不减，供给压力持续提升，需持续关注相关动态，需求表现相对稳定，纯碱去库 压力较大，关注纯碱供应变化及下游需求情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化、玻璃产线点火及产区供给扰动等。 双硅：市场表现不佳，延续偏弱格局 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日硅锰期货主力合约收于5746元/吨，较上一交易日下跌14元/吨。现货方面，钢厂压价情绪浓厚，工 厂生产持续倒挂，6517北方市场价格5600-5650元/吨，南方市场价格5650-5700元/吨。 整体来看，硅锰企业亏损加剧，产量与开工率均回落， ...

Group 1: Short-term Consensus - Trump's new tariff threat of 100% on all Chinese products starting November 1 has significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to declines in equities, industrial commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while gold and U.S. Treasuries rose[3] - The market consensus is that this is a maximum pressure strategy before the APEC summit at the end of October, indicating that the trend has not changed[4] - The overall economic impact is expected to be limited, with China's GDP growth target of 5% and a potential 5.2% growth in the first three quarters suggesting minimal macro policy adjustments before early November[4] Group 2: Long-term Competition - The trade war may signal the beginning of a decoupling between China and the U.S., entering a new cycle of fiscal expansion[4] - The shift from short-term TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading to long-term confrontation is anticipated, with increased policy maneuverability in key sectors under the "high-quality development" strategy[5] - The potential for renewed TACO trading in early November could present opportunities in safe-haven assets, while risk assets may offer buying opportunities after adjustments[31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent U.S. Treasury market shows a significant rebound driven by interest rate cuts. With increasing signs of economic slowdown and delayed release of key data due to government shutdown, the market is fully betting on monetary easing. The probability of a 25bp rate cut in October is nearly 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate cut by the end of the year exceeds 96%. This has led to a decline in the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a sharp drop in market risk appetite and a return of safe - haven demand. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the easing of the Middle East situation have strengthened the expectation of inflation decline, further increasing the buying of U.S. Treasuries and creating a loose resonance in the global bond market [6]. - However, the long - term support for U.S. Treasuries is undergoing structural changes. Foreign central banks are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a decline in trust in U.S. dollar assets. The market is worried about the U.S. debt reaching $37 trillion and the annualized interest expenditure exceeding military spending, which may trigger a debt critical - point risk. In the long run, the core logic of U.S. Treasuries is shifting from a simple safe - haven asset to a focus of the game between trust and risk re - balance. Short - term trends are dominated by interest rate cut expectations, while long - term trends depend on the U.S. fiscal path, international capital allocation, and re - verification of inflation data [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. U.S. Treasury Yield Review - As of October 10, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 15bp in two weeks, falling to 4.05%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 11bp, and the 30 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 14bp. Both short - and long - term bond yields have declined in the past two weeks [2]. 2. U.S. Treasury Market Changes - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance increased slightly in early October. The issuance amounts were $57.84 billion for 3 - year, $38.92 billion for 10 - year, and $21.96 billion for 30 - year bonds. The U.S. fiscal deficit in August was $344.8 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.89 trillion [2]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures have slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million contracts. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 contracts [2]. 4. U.S. Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed's statement showed increased concern about the labor market by deleting the description of "robust labor market conditions" and adding statements about "slowing employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and increased risks of employment decline" [3]. 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of October 8, the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by $2.572 billion on a two - week - on - two - week basis, indicating fiscal money withdrawal [3]. 4.3 Economic Indicators - As of October 4, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.42 (2.07 two weeks ago), showing that the economy has improved after a short - term stabilization [3].

Group 1: Market Analysis - USD/CNY - China's export growth in August 2025 slowed to 4.4% year-on-year, the lowest in six months, and exports to the US declined by about 33.1% year-on-year. Import growth was weak, and overall import-export momentum weakened [1]. - Trump announced on October 10 that an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods would be imposed starting from November 1, signaling an escalation of Sino-US trade friction. This increases external pressure on the RMB, and there is a risk of RMB depreciation if the tariffs are eventually implemented [1]. - The new tariff proposal increased the short - term market demand for the US dollar as a safe - haven asset. The US dollar index attempted to rebound this week, but the increase narrowed without breaking through major resistance levels [1]. - The Fed's meeting minutes continued to send a dovish signal, with officials inclined to further interest rate cuts in the future, but inflation risks and balance - sheet adjustments were still widely concerned. Due to the partial government shutdown in the US, the release of core economic data was restricted, limiting the US dollar's upward momentum [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Exchange Rates - Economic expectation differentials are favorable for the RMB. There is a divergence in the market's view of the US dollar's future path due to the co - existence of economic growth and inflation. China has policy intervention and domestic demand support despite export and manufacturing downward pressure [2]. - The Sino - US interest rate differential is favorable for the RMB. With the decline of short - term US interest rates and China not significantly cutting interest rates, the interest rate differential may tilt towards the RMB [2]. - Trade policy uncertainty is favorable for the US dollar. Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1 signals an escalation risk of trade friction, which may trigger short - term exchange rate fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Other Currencies - The euro is under new downward pressure due to political upheaval in France. The resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu and the subsequent attempt to form a new cabinet have raised questions about the stability of the French government, weakening market confidence in the eurozone's fiscal policy implementation and causing the euro to be under pressure against the US dollar [3]. - The Japanese yen has come under pressure recently. After conservative politician Takaichi Sanae was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the market generally expects more stimulative economic policies, leading to an increase in long - term bond yields. On the day of Takaichi's victory, the yen fell more than 1.9% against the US dollar to 150.35, the largest single - day decline in five months. The widening of the US - Japan interest rate differential and carry - trade sentiment have further exacerbated the pressure on the yen [3]. Group 4: Strategies - For the USD/CNY exchange rate, during the window period when the tariff suspension is extended to November, the exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.20 in the short term. Key factors to watch include the Fed's interest rate movements, US employment and inflation data, and the implementation of Sino - US trade policies [4]. - The euro is expected to be weak against the US dollar in the short term due to the weak eurozone economy, limited policy space, and political instability in France [4]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate may continue its upward trend in the short term due to changes in the Japanese political situation, the widening interest rate differential, and carry - trade flows. However, if the Bank of Japan intervenes or changes its policy, it may resist the upward momentum of the US dollar [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass and soda ash markets are both in a state of cautious waiting and oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of both are under pressure, with supply and demand contradictions remaining prominent. Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply dynamics, and downstream demand [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Glass - Price: The glass main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton on Friday. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,263 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85.17 yuan/ton [1][5] - Supply: Glass capacity utilization and output increased slightly, and the post-holiday supply was relatively stable [1] - Demand: The float glass market is in the traditional peak season, with stable shipments. After the holiday, the market is cautious, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.82 million heavy boxes, showing a significant increase. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory situation in October [1][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: Glass production is stable, and some production lines have been ignited. It is expected that production will continue to increase. The production and sales data weakened significantly during the holiday, and although there was a certain increase after the holiday, the overall situation remains weak. The glass price is at a relatively low level and is greatly affected by policies, but the weak fundamentals still strongly suppress the price [1] Market Analysis - Soda Ash - Price: The soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,240 yuan/ton on Friday. Some spot prices were lowered, and the spot-futures trading was good [1][5] - Supply: This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 88.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.76%. The output was 770,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85%. Some enterprises had short shutdowns during the holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply [2][29] - Demand: Demand is relatively stable. With the decline in spot and futures prices, market transactions have increased, but overall supply-demand contradictions still exist [2][31] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday, indicating inventory accumulation [2][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply-demand contradiction in soda ash remains severe. The second phase of Yuanxing's project was successfully ignited, and the subsequent supply pressure of soda ash will further increase. Demand is still weak due to the decline in photovoltaic glass and float glass. In the short term, soda ash will maintain a weak operation [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The opening of the export window weakens the short - allocation value of SHFE zinc. Although the domestic supply pressure remains, the export window opening and the change in domestic TC make the short - allocation logic change marginally. The SHFE zinc price will be more sensitive to overseas macro - positive factors, and the linkage between domestic and overseas markets will strengthen. With the LME inventory below 38,000 tons and the overseas premium rising, there is still a warrant risk. Despite short - term fluctuations caused by the tariff trade war, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - On October 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 0.32%, and the LME price closed at $2,984.5/ton, with a fluctuation of - 0.01%. The spot prices in East China, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 22,300 yuan/ton, 22,320 yuan/ton, and 22,310 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes in the premium/discount to the main contract compared to the previous period. The LME (0 - 3) premium was $66.80/ton, with a weekly change of + $7.69/ton [1] - The weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM was 3,500 yuan/metal ton, with a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates was $118.50/dry ton, with a weekly change of $2.60/dry ton. The import profit and loss of zinc concentrates was - 2,379.03 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises were 46.83% (a change of - 1.83% compared to last week), 46.51% (a change of - 0.35% compared to last week), and 56.08% (a change of - 1.24% compared to last week) respectively [1] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 150,200 tons, an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous week. The warrant inventory was 60,644 tons, and the LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons [2] Profit - As of October 10, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises (excluding by - product income) was about - 436 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid price in Inner Mongolia was 735 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. After adding by - product income, the profit was about 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - Domestic smelters have low enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc ores. The domestic TC and imported TC continue to diverge, and the domestic TC declines. Although the domestic supply has not changed significantly, the opening of the export window changes the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory is below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium is rising, with a warrant risk. The tariff trade war causes short - term fluctuations, but the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [4]. Core Views - For natural rubber, as rainfall decreases in major production areas at home and abroad, production is gradually increasing, and domestic raw material prices are falling. Although the raw material prices in Thailand remain firm, the supply is expected to increase due to the peak season and reduced rainfall. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall supply - demand situation in China is gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again [3]. - For butadiene rubber, there are still maintenance plans for domestic butadiene rubber plants in October, with a similar scale to September, providing support on the supply side. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level year - on - year, and the supply remains abundant. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply and demand of butadiene rubber will be strong [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread - The spread data includes the prices of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, BR rubber, and various rubber products, as well as the basis of NR, RU, BR, and differences between different rubber types and products [1][7][8]. 2. Supply Data - In terms of natural rubber, the inventory inflow rate at Qingdao Port is 10.56% (+2.06%), with the general trade inventory inflow rate at 11.61% (+1.99%) and the bonded warehouse inventory inflow rate at 4.62% (+2.15%). The output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 29,990 tons, and the operating rate is 74.69% (+4.15%). There are also data on natural rubber production in China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, as well as China's natural rubber imports [1][7][8]. - Regarding production profit, the production profit of Thai STR20 is - 186.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of Thai RSS3 is 2,847.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 364 yuan/ton (-300), and the production profit of butadiene by carbon - four extraction method is 1,765.83 yuan/ton (-39.83) [2]. 3. Demand Data - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 42.15% (-18%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 39.87 days (+0.36), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires are 45.70 days (-0.23). There are also data on the production of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, the export volume of motor vehicle pneumatic tires in China, and the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, rubber tubes, and conveyor belts [2][8]. 4. Inventory Data - The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory is 41,329 tons (-705). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 27,750 tons (+0), the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises is 26,600 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 5,700 tons (+0) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading of caustic soda has improved, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of procurement. The supply is expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance, and the demand from alumina is stable while non - aluminum demand is cautiously increasing. The cost support remains, but the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [1][2]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is in a weak state. The supply is abundant despite some reduction in quantity due to autumn maintenance. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export has some resilience but is affected by Indian policies. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and the Politburo meeting [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the SH main contract of caustic soda closed at 2470 yuan/ton (+20). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (+5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the PVC main contract closed at 4735 yuan/ton (-34). The spot price of PVC in East China was 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China was 4700 yuan/ton (+0) [3][4]. III. Cost Profit - **Caustic Soda**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 748.28 yuan/ton (-24.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 177.28 yuan/ton (+30.63). The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1571.40 yuan/ton (+15.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1311.75 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The single - variety production profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton (+152.89), and by the ethylene method was - 538.36 yuan/ton (+19.87). The export profit of PVC was 19 US dollars/ton (+0) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 84.30% (-0.80%), and the weekly output was 82.83 tons (-0.62). Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity has reached full production, and the number of maintenance enterprises will increase next week, with an expected slight decline in output [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of October 10, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton (-50). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane increased, and the weekly output of chloroform was 3.27 tons (+0.16) [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The average operating load of upstream calcium carbide was 65.72% (+0.17%), the PVC operating rate was 82.63% (+1.21%), and the operating rate of PVC by the calcium carbide method was 82.94% (+0.81%). Although there are many autumn maintenance enterprises in October, new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, and the supply is still abundant [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 86.32% (+0.14%), with a weekly output of 186.30 tons (+0.30). The operating rates of other downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp showed different changes [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 39.21% (-8.55%), with the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films showing different trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC production enterprises was 58.31 tons (-19.27), and the export orders weakened this week, but there is still some resilience in exports [4][5]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 42.12 tons (+3.00), and the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.11 tons (+0.10). - **PVC**: The PVC factory inventory was 38.36 tons (+8.40), and the social inventory was 55.70 tons (+1.93) [2][5].