Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The mid-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually materializing. If the Russia-Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, and lower oil prices will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil [2] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with declining crack spreads and monthly spreads. The market supply remains relatively abundant. The supply from the Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, some units of the Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low-sulfur crude oil is also recovering. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and there is still support at the lower end of the market [2] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner, and the lower support for valuation mainly comes from the flexible demand at the refinery end. In addition, the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.36% during the day session, at 2,491 yuan/ton; the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.31% during the day session, at 3,015 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

原油日报 | 2025-11-26 关注俄乌和谈前景 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌89美分，收于每桶57.95美元，跌幅为1.51%；1月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌89美分，收于每桶62.48美元，跌幅为1.4%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.98%，报443元/桶。（来 源：Bloomberg） 2、 里海管道联盟表示，由于无人机袭击，黑海终端暂时暂停石油装载。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国总统特朗普表示，由美国起草的最初的28点和平计划经过双方的进一步完善，目前仅剩少数几个分歧点， 俄乌局势可能缓和。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 当地时间11月24日，美国俄勒冈州州长宣布该州进入紧急状态，以确保在供应该州90%以上燃料的奥林匹克输 油管道因泄漏而关闭期间，有足够的燃料运抵该州。根据州长蒂娜·科特克的命令，进入紧急状态是为了确保通过 船舶和卡车向该州输送足够燃料。奥林匹克输油管道由英国石油公司运营，从华盛顿州延伸至俄勒冈州。自本月 初首次报告泄漏并出现间歇性停运以来，已关闭一周。BP公司在一份声明中表示，其工作人员正在寻找泄漏源。 （来源：Bloom ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-26 股指缩量回升，通信行业领涨 市场分析 美国消费动能减弱。宏观方面，国务院新闻办公室将于11月27日上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，请工信部、 国家发改委、商务部、文化和旅游部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策 措施有关情况，并答记者问。海外方面，特朗普表示，过去一周，他的团队在结束俄乌冲突方面取得了巨大进展， 最初由美国起草的28点和平计划已经经过完善，目前仅剩少数分歧。美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨 0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正 增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月来首次下滑。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡上涨，沪指涨0.87%收于3870.02点，创业板指涨1.77%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，通信、传媒、有色金属、电子行业涨幅居前，仅国防军工、交通运输行业收跌。当日沪深两市成 交额小幅回升至1.81万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.43%报47112.45点。 IC增仓。期货市场，基差方面，股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and moderately bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel, with a bearish fundamental drive due to increased oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia since Q3. However, market differentiation caused by sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may impact sentiment [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN has widened recently. With a loose MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production but has limited upside due to high PX load and capacity expansion [1]. - For TA, the spot basis and processing fees have increased. Recent concentrated maintenance and improved export demand have led to better supply - demand conditions. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve as the capacity expansion cycle ends [2]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month). Domestic sales orders have improved since late October, and inventory has decreased. The short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. - In the PF market, the production profit has increased, and inventory has decreased. The price is consolidating, but it is difficult to raise prices, and the processing fee has slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee has decreased slightly. The market is in a demand off - season and a pre - Spring Festival inventory gap, with high social inventory and weak demand, so the processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The upside of the 01 contract may be limited, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no recommendations for cross - variety and cross - period trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 43 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is $263 per ton (up $1.25 per ton month - on - month). The PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 277 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1][2]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - No specific data is provided in the given content. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level, and overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. The concentrated PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand conditions [1][2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - No specific data is provided in the given content. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 164 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level [2]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 440 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and factory inventory remains unchanged. The processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The market demand for oilseeds is weak, and the prices are stable. The trading of soybeans and peanuts is light, with prices under pressure and mainly showing a volatile trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2601 contract was 4108.00 yuan/ton, a change of -42.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of -1.01% [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 8, a change of +42 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The prices of soybeans in Northeast China were stable, but the trading of grain traders was light, and the prices still faced pressure. In the inner - region producing areas, high - quality soybeans commanded high prices, and the purchase prices of grain trading enterprises were firm, but downstream buyers were reluctant to accept high - priced goods, and the purchasing and selling rhythm was slow [1] - Market Information: The loading prices of national standard first - class soybeans with 39% protein in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged compared with the previous day [1] Peanut - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, a change of +98.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.25% [2] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The spot basis was PK01 - 942.00, a change of -98.00 from the previous day, an increase of 11.61% [2] - Market Information: The prices of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil remained unchanged. Among related oils, the spot price of national first - class sunflower oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference with peanut oil increased by 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - class corn oil remained unchanged, and the price difference with peanut oil remained the same. Currently, the inventory of oil mills in the market is not high, but consumption is limited, the market trading is light, and the upward momentum is insufficient, so the prices are mainly volatile [2]

航运日报 | 2025-11-26 马士基12月第二周报价环比下调，12月合约交割结算价格估 值下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520，12月第二周价格介于2200-2300美元/FEU； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价2235-2535美元/FEU，12月下半月价格3535美元/FEU。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 12月上半月价格1565/2435；HMM上海-鹿特丹12 月上半月船司价格1468/2506; YML 12/7-12/14 报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2675；EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810，12月上 半月价格2005/3110；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2280-2630美元/FEU 地缘端：马士基发言人：苏伊士运河管理局此前关于将于12月恢复通航的声明不实。马士基发言人：公司尚未确 定何时将恢复通过苏伊士运河的部分航行。 动态供给： ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-26 泰国主产区降雨将逐步减少 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15125元/吨，较前一日变动-195元/吨；NR主力合约12150元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约10270元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1830美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to decline. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure. Overseas ethylene glycol plant changes were limited, and the port inventory was expected to remain stable in the short term, but there were still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure [2]. International Price Difference - No specific international price difference data was provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The urea spot price has slightly declined, with the trading atmosphere weakening recently after being good last week. The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased, and the off - season storage is gradually entering the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - batch export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The author suggests a range - bound strategy for unilateral trading and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, with no cross - variety strategy [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton (-8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 10 yuan/ton (-2), and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (with a 0.08% change). The specific production data is shown in the "Urea Weekly Production" chart [1]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (-10). The national capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), with coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate details shown in relevant charts [1]. 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of November 25, 2025, the urea export profit was 1,012 yuan/ton (+6). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which has improved the year - end export expectation [1][2]. 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 34.61% (+4.29%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (-46,400), and the port sample inventory was 100,000 tons (+18,000) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides an overview of mid - and macro - level events and industry trends, including production and service industries, as well as upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - and Macro - Level Events - **Production Industry**: The National Space Administration issued an action plan for the high - quality and safe development of commercial space from 2025 - 2027, aiming to achieve significant development in the industry by 2027 [1]. - **Service Industry**: Seven双创Artificial Intelligence ETFs will be issued on November 28, focusing on AI leaders in the Sci - tech Innovation Board and ChiNext, bringing incremental funds to high - tech [1]. Upstream Industry - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices dropped by nearly 5% [1]. - **Chemical Industry**: Urea prices rebounded [1]. - **Energy Industry**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuated downward [1]. Mid - stream Industry - **Chemical Industry**: PX operating rate increased, while PTA operating rate declined [2]. - **Energy Industry**: Coal consumption in power plants increased [2]. - **Infrastructure Industry**: Asphalt production was in the off - season [2]. Downstream Industry - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities declined seasonally [3]. - **Service Industry**: The number of domestic flights decreased slightly [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On November 25, the spot price of palm oil was 8392 yuan/ton, down 4.85% year - on - year; the spot price of corn was 2201.4 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On November 25, the spot price of copper was 86603.3 yuan/ton, up 0.68% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum was 21373.3 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [34]. - **Black Metals**: On November 25, the spot price of iron ore was 808.2 yuan/ton, up 0.51% year - on - year; the spot price of wire rod was 3337.5 yuan/ton, up 0.53% [34]. - **Energy**: On November 25, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 58.8 dollars/barrel, down 1.79% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 4108 yuan/ton, down 1.77% [34]. - **Chemical Industry**: On November 25, the spot price of PTA was 4651.7 yuan/ton, up 0.49% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1655 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [34]. - **Real Estate**: On November 25, the building materials composite index was 114.4 points, up 0.55% year - on - year; the national concrete price index was 90.5 points, down 0.33% [34].