Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, domestic existing plant operations remain at a high level, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Pre - holiday downstream procurement and stocking were satisfactory, leading to a faster inventory reduction rate at ports and a continuous strengthening of the pure benzene basis. The downstream operations of pure benzene have rapidly recovered from the bottom, but the long - term procurement sustainability of MDI, PA6, and nylon filament after the holiday is questionable due to inventory pressure and poor BPA operations [4]. - For styrene, the operations of PS and EPS have declined, along with a decrease in提货. With concentrated EB arrivals, port inventories have accumulated again, and the EB basis has further weakened. EB operations will remain at a low level in the short term, and factory inventories have decreased. Overseas, the EB operations in Europe and the United States remain low, and the price difference between European and American EB and the Chinese market continues to be weak, limiting the upside potential of EB [4]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period There is no specific content provided in the text for this section. II. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 56,000 tons (+35,000). The overall styrene plant operating rate is 73.24% (-0.20%), with the operating rate in East China at 69.96% (-3.01%), in Shandong at 77.87% (-2.66%), and in South China at 69.50% (+12.87%) [1]. III. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS operating rate is 55.25% (-6.49%), PS operating rate is 59.10% (-2.10%), ABS operating rate is 70.00% (+0.20%), UPR operating rate is 33.00% (-1.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate is 70.43% (+0.00%). EPS sample enterprise inventory is 31,300 tons (-100), PS sample enterprise inventory is 89,360 tons (-360), ABS sample enterprise inventory is 243,600 tons (+4,900), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprise inventory is 20,500 tons (+600) [1]. IV. Styrene Inventory - Styrene inventory in East China ports is 186,500 tons (+27,500), and styrene factory inventory is 203,274 tons (-13,009) [1]. V. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports is 107,000 tons (-27,000). The pure benzene operating rate is 79.27% (+0.92%), and the hydro - benzene operating rate is 63.99% (+4.05%) [2]. VI. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - Caprolactam operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), and adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (-1.20%). In the CPL industry chain, CPL operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), CPL factory inventory is 50,000 tons (+2,000), PA6 operating rate is 76.04% (+0.25%), PA6 conventional spinning factory inventory days are 7 days (-1 day), nylon filament operating rate is 78.00% (+0.00%), and nylon filament factory inventory days are 34.5 days (+0.5 days). In the phenol - acetone industry chain, phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), Jiangyin phenol port inventory is 6,000 tons (-1,000), Jiangyin acetone port inventory is 24,500 tons (-4,500), bisphenol A operating rate is 65.93% (-2.91), PC operating rate is 81.27% (-2.63), and epoxy resin operating rate is 50.76% (-0.76). In the aniline industry chain, aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), polymer MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%), polymer MDI factory inventory is 71,000 tons (+2,000), pure MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%), and pure MDI factory inventory is 7,000 tons (+700). In the adipic acid industry chain, adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (-1.20%), spandex operating rate is 77.50% (+0.00%), spandex factory inventory days are 50 days (+0.00%), PA66 operating rate is 61.27% (+2.32%), and polyurethane elastomer operating rate is 52.29% (+1.02%) [2][3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for BZ, and conduct short - selling hedging for EB at high prices. - Basis and inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy [5].

油脂周报 | 2025-09-28 豆菜供需各异，油脂行情分化 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2601合约9236元/吨，环比下跌80元，跌幅0.86%；本周收盘豆油2601合约8162元/ 吨，环比下跌166元，跌幅1.99%；本周收盘菜油2601合约10162元/吨，环比上涨94元，涨幅0.93%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格9190元/吨，环比下跌60元，跌幅0.65%，现货基差P01-46，环比上涨20元；天津地区 一级豆油现货价格8380元/吨，环比下跌130元/吨，跌幅1.53%，现货基差Y01+218，环比上涨36元；江苏地区 四级菜油现货价格10380元/吨，环比上涨90元，涨幅0.87%，现货基差OI01+218，环比下跌4元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，9月24日(周三)，马来西亚棕榈油协会(MPOA)公布的数据显示，马来西亚9月1-20日毛棕油产量较上 月同期下降4.26%。 其中，马来半岛产量下滑8.23%，东马来西亚产量增加2.64%，沙巴产量增加0.73%，沙捞 越产量增加7.63%。周内（9.19-9.25）国内新增 4 条买船，船期均为 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].

黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 进入用煤淡季，煤炭需求转弱 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至9月26日，榆林5800大卡指数601.0元/吨，周环比上涨3元/吨；鄂尔多斯5500大卡 指数534.0元/吨，周环比上涨13元/吨；大同5500大卡指数595.0元/吨；周环比上涨19元/吨。港口指数：截至9月26 日， CCI进口4700指数报69.7美元/吨，周环比上涨0.4美元/吨，CCI进口3800指数报54.0美元/吨，周环比上涨0.3美 元/吨。 港口方面：截至到9月26日，北方港港口总库存2079万吨，较上周增加18万吨，港口库存持续累积。 电厂方面：截至到9月26日，沿海 6大电厂煤炭库存 1386万吨，环比增加41.3万吨；平均可用天数为 16天，环比 增加1天；沿海六大电厂日耗85.6万吨，环比减少2.1万吨。 整体来看：产地方面，近期主产地供应明显增加，产能维持高位。下游冶金、化工等非电按需采购，产区价格小 幅上涨。港口方面，港口受调入地位影响，库存持续增加，预计后期电厂日耗持续回落，贸易商报价维稳，优质 低硫资源偏紧。进口方面，进口市场整体活跃度不高，下游电厂库存相对充足，当 ...

化工周报 | 2025-09-28 节前补库需求边际改善，关注持续性 核心观点 策略 单边：PX/PTA/PF/PR短期中性，节前下游补库下需求边际好转，关注持续性，中期偏空。PX方面，近期中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时国内部分PX装置四季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX四季 市场分析 成本端，本周油价反弹，乌克兰对连续对俄罗斯境内发动袭击，受损目标涵盖能源生产、运输及军工制造等关键 领域。欧盟将新增制裁118艘属于"影子油轮船队"的船只。特朗普也威胁对俄加征关税。后续继续关注地缘局势发 展以及国庆期间的OPEC会议。 PX方面，本周中国 PX 开工率86.7%（环比上周+0.5%），亚洲 PX 开工率78%（环比上周-0.3%）。本周国内PX装 置负荷小幅提升，主要来自天津石化检修完毕重启，恒力石化本周末一条重整计划检修，但PX基本无影响。近期 中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行；后续海外几套装置也有重启计划，开工整体走高，PX四季度检修计划推迟 以及个别装置四季度扩能下PXN依然承压。同时下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟和PTA工厂减产 保价下检修计划增多，一定程度 ...

贵金属周报 | 2025-09-28 美财长呼吁降息 多位美联储官员放鸽 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观面 2025-09-26当周，贵金属价格延续强势表现，白银价格突破46美元/盎司，创出14年新高。利率政策方面，周内美 联储主席鲍威尔强调称当前政策风险具有双向性；若货币政策过度宽松，通胀可能反弹；若过度紧缩，就业可能 受损。而后美财长贝森特称其认为利率水平仍然过高，需下调至少100至150个基点；而多位美联储官员也进一步 表明了偏向鸽派的货币政策立场。但整体看美联储未来的降息路径依旧不确定，而市场则更倾向于押注美联储连 续降息：Fedwatch显示10月继续降息25BP概率为87.7%，暂停降息概率为12.3%。关税方面，美国总统特朗普计划 从10月1日起对多种进口商品征收高额关税；其中重型卡车将被征收25%的关税，厨房橱柜和浴室柜的关税为50%， 软垫家具为30%，而未在美国动工建设药厂的公司所生产的药品将面临100%的关税。总体来看，周内贵金属依旧 沿着宽松预期主线演绎，同时避险情绪的升温助推价格延续亮眼表现。 基本面 2025-09-26当周，上期所黄金仓单为65826千克，较此前一周变化8397千克。白 ...

国债期货周报 | 2025-09-28 政策预期反复与资金面波动交织，期债震荡走跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"。（2）通胀：8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：8月末，M2同比增长8.8%，M1同比回升至6%，剪刀差连续收窄，显示资金活性增强，企业经 营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元，社融增量累计26.56万亿元，政府债券融资占比高企，反映企 业中长期融资需求仍偏弱。存款同比增长8.6%，信贷 ...

黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 节前补库结束，合金冲高回落 市场分析 硅锰方面，本周硅锰市场盘整运行，上半周在政策利好带动下，跟随黑色板块共振上行，随着下游节前补库结束， 下半周表现弱势难改。截至本周五，锰硅期货主力合约收于5848元/吨，较上周日下跌116元/吨。现货端：硅锰市 场震荡运行，6517北方市场价格5650-5700元/吨，南方市场价格5700-5750元/吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，据Mysteel最新调研数据显示：全国187家独立硅锰企业样本开工率44.18%，环比减1.50%； 日产2.95万吨，减335吨；需求端，本周五大材硅锰需求为12.25万吨，环比上周增0.8%。 整体来看，本周硅锰产量环比回落，铁水产量微增，硅锰下游需求仍有韧性，硅锰合金企业库存增加。长期看， 硅锰供需仍偏宽松，预计硅锰价格仍将跟随板块波动，后期产区政策和电价变化情况。 硅铁方面，本周硅铁期货先扬后抑走势。截至本周最后一个交易日，主力合约收于5660元/吨，较上周下跌76元/ 吨。现货端：硅铁市场情绪一般，成交氛围有待加强，硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5300-5400元/吨，75 硅铁价格报590 ...

黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 节前补库结束，铁矿区间震荡 市场分析 本周铁矿石价格窄幅震荡，截止周五收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于790元/吨，周环比下降17.5元/吨，跌幅1.13%。 Mysteel62%澳粉远期价格指数103.4美元/吨。下跌2.3，青岛港PB粉价格785元/吨，周环比下跌14元/吨。 供应方面：Mysteel统计最新数据显示，本期全球铁矿石发运3324.8万吨，周环比下降248.3万吨，下降幅度6.95% 其中巴西和非主流发运显著减少。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2675万吨，周环比增加312.7万吨。 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率84.45%，环比上周增加0.47个百分点，同比去年增加6.22个百分点； 高炉炼铁产能利用率90.86%，环比上周增加0.51个百分点 ，同比去年增加6.41个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.01%，环 比上周减少0.86个百分点，同比去年增加39.4个百分点；日均铁水产量242.36万吨，环比上周增加1.34万吨，同步 去年增加17.50万吨。 库存方面：Mysteel统计，全国45港铁矿石库存总量14000.28万吨，环比累库19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has shown signs of stabilization, with reduced supply pressure and marginal improvement in refinery demand. However, there is still resistance above the valuation due to potential seasonal consumption decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited supply pressure, and there are long - term substitution risks, but the downside space is also limited [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. It is recommended to go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded this week, boosting the downstream energy sector. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil improved marginally, and the cancellation of some FU futures warehouse receipts strengthened the futures market structure. The weekly increase of the FU main contract was 4.36%, and that of the LU main contract was 1.9% [1]. Supply - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of high - sulfur fuel oil from Iran are 1280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons; from Russia, 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons; from the Middle East, 2.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons [2]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of low - sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria are 530,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons; from Kuwait, 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. Brazilian exports decreased significantly in September. In August, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil for bonded use in Chinese refineries was 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. Overall, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is still limited [2]. Demand - Although the impact of US tariffs on shipping demand has not been fully reflected, there is still downward pressure on trade and shipping demand in the medium term. High - sulfur fuel oil demand in the marine fuel sector is more resilient, but the summer power generation demand has not exceeded the seasonal level. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel sector is average, and its market share is being gradually replaced [3]. Inventory - This week, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore was 22.804 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10.26%; the fuel oil inventory in Zhoushan Port was 1.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.19% [4]. Strategy - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Cross - period**: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading). - **Spot - futures**: None. - **Options**: None [6]