化工日报 | 2026-01-15 负荷偏高，EG主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3867元/吨（较前一交易日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.36%），EG华东市场现货价 3718元/吨（较前一交易日变动+36元/吨，幅度+0.98%），EG华东现货基差-144元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-76美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-901 元/吨（环比-50元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为80.2万吨（环比+7.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数16.6万吨，副 港到港量6.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.8万吨，副港到港量1.7万吨，整体略偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷7成以上高位继续提升，1~2月高 供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓解 ...

重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-19.35美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化240元/吨至24570元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水50元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日260元/吨至24550元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水30元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日250元/吨至24510元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-14沪锌主力合约开于24560元/吨，收于24475元/吨，较前一交易日125元/吨，全天交易日成交 243101手，全天交易日持仓120299手，日内价格最高点达到24855元/吨，最低点达到24370元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-15 估值偏低锌价表现相对偏强 库存方面：截至2026-01-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.83万吨，较上期变化-0.02万吨。截止2026-01-14，LME 锌库存为106725吨，较上一交易日变化-175吨。 市场分析 锌价近日表现走势偏强，现货市场下游订单减弱，采购积极性较差，现货升水略有回落。冶炼厂原料库存略有增 加，对国产矿采购积极性下滑，国产矿TC保持平稳，进口矿TC持续回落， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains complex, and the recent rebound in crude oil prices provides cost support for pure benzene and styrene. Although the fundamentals of pure benzene have not changed significantly, market funds have started to focus on its undervalued status and are driving up its valuation. The future focus lies on whether the US will reduce tariffs on South Korean pure benzene and whether the increasing operating rates of downstream phenol and styrene can boost the pick - up of pure benzene. Currently, the situation is still weak, with high port inventories, weak downstream pick - up, slow recovery of styrene operating rate, further decline of CPL operating rate to a low level, low aniline operating rate, good performance of rising phenol operating rate, and certain resilience of PC operating rate. The operating rate of adipic acid is also acceptable. Domestic pure benzene prices continue to stay low. - For styrene, the decline of port inventory at the beginning of the week exceeded expectations. On one hand, the recovery rate of styrene operating rate is still slow, with the resumption of Bohua pending and Zhenhai Liande continuing to be shut down, and there are still expectations of inventory reduction in the future. On the other hand, downstream procurement continues, and its sustainability needs to be monitored. The operating rate of EPS performs well, but due to the late Spring Festival this year, the seasonal decline in its operating rate will be late, and there is still pressure for a decline before the Spring Festival with high finished - product inventory. The operating rate of PS is gradually entering the pre - Spring Festival decline stage, with little pressure on finished - product inventory. ABS maintains a low operating rate, and the pressure of finished - product inventory at a high level has slightly eased [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 132 yuan/ton (- 3), and the spot - M2 spread in East China is - 190 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 119 yuan/ton (- 38 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 131 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton), and the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 130 US dollars/ton (+ 0 US dollar/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 168.0 US dollars/ton (+ 21.1 US dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary: caprolactam production profit is - 900 yuan/ton (- 145), phenol - acetone production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (- 140), aniline production profit is 909 yuan/ton (+ 64), and adipic acid production profit is - 918 yuan/ton (- 77) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is 328 yuan/ton (- 47 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 32.40 tons (+ 0.60 tons), and the operating rate data of its downstream products vary. The operating rate of caprolactam is 74.22% (- 1.30%), the operating rate of phenol is 85.50% (+ 4.50%), the operating rate of aniline is 61.31% (+ 1.50%), and the operating rate of adipic acid is 67.60% (- 0.60%) [1]. - Styrene: The port inventory in East China is 100,600 tons (- 31,700 tons), the commercial inventory in East China is 59,900 tons (- 17,400 tons), and it is in the stage of inventory rebuilding. The operating rate is 70.9% (+ 0.7%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 37 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 46.72% (+ 3.07%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 263 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.90% (- 1.50%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 779 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 69.80% (- 0.10%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 900 yuan/ton (- 145), and the operating rate is 74.22% (- 1.30%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (- 140), and the operating rate of phenol is 85.50% (+ 4.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 909 yuan/ton (+ 64), and the operating rate is 61.31% (+ 1.50%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 918 yuan/ton (- 77), and the operating rate is 67.60% (- 0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Consider cautious long - hedging at low levels for EB2602 and BZ2603 [4]. - Basis and inter - period: No relevant strategies provided [4]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategies provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Total Volume - Trade continued its periodic rebound. As of January 14, the global export heat value of Huatai was +0.68, up 0.54 from the revised November figure; the import heat value was +0.09, up 0.17 from the revised November figure. The economies that had released December import and export reports showed a slight slowdown in the month - on - month improvement, but trade continued to recover in December after the improvement in November. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and implemented the RMP balance sheet expansion policy. The global economy continued to show signs of improvement at the end of 2025, but there was a risk of continued pressure on periodic trade during the economic cycle transition. [2][10] - The tone was optimistic. After the leaders of China and the US met in South Korea at the end of October and reached measures such as suspending additional tariffs, market risk appetite improved. In the long run, the "Big Beautiful Act" in the US in July opened the debt shackles restricting the US economic expansion, and the direction of macro - asset allocation expansion was certain [2][19]. Structure - Electric vehicles maintained their advantage, and attention should be paid to the increase in art imports and the decline in machine tool exports [3]. - By industry (as of November): China's import demand for transport equipment, waste resources, and non - metal minerals increased, while the short - term import demand for ferrous metals, chemical fibers, and coal continued to slow. The global economy's import demand for China's transport equipment, non - ferrous metals, and equipment increased, but the demand for non - metal minerals, wood products, and oil and gas decreased significantly [3]. - By commodity: As of November, China's imports of weapons continued to decline, while it increased art imports and precious metal exports. As of December, the export growth of China's machine tools slowed significantly, but automobiles still maintained a trade advantage. China's import demand for aluminum remained high, and the growth rate of rare earth imports remained low. The export demand for Chinese goods remained relatively strong, with rapid growth in the exports of cement, fertilizers, and electric vehicles, but a slowdown in machine tools and coal [3]. - By country: As of December, China's top 5 foreign trade partners were ASEAN (16.37%), the EU (13.12%), the US (8.14%), Hong Kong, China (6.25%), and South Korea (5.25%). In December, China maintained high trade growth rates with Hong Kong, China (25.66%), Vietnam (16.77%), and Indonesia (14.79%), and low trade growth rates with the US (- 25.97%), Malaysia (- 19.89%), and Canada (- 6.55%) [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Global Trade in December - Huatai Futures measured the current global trade cycle by tracking the import and export cycles of major global economies. In 2025, China's foreign trade volume was 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%), and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%). As of January 14, the global export heat value of Huatai was +0.68, up 0.54 from the revised November figure; the import heat value was +0.09, up 0.17 from the revised November figure. The economies that had released December import and export reports showed a slight slowdown in the month - on - month improvement, but trade continued to recover in December [10]. China's Trade in December - China's trade continued to recover. The relatively loose Fed monetary policy and the easing of China - US relations improved trade. The tone was optimistic due to the China - US leaders' meeting and the "Big Beautiful Act" in the US. However, the expansion rhythm was highly uncertain, as the current easing state might be interrupted at any time, and the Sino - Japanese trade conflict and US military actions in South America and the Middle East increased trade flow instability. The economies of China and the US improved month - on - month. In December, the US non - farm employment remained positive, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.4%. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded 0.9 percentage points to 50.1 in December, and new export orders also continued to rebound [19]. Import Industries - Manufacturing import growth rebounded. As of November 2025, the import value index expanded in 24 industries, including manufacturing (102.2). Among them, the railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing industries had relatively large rebounds [28]. - Transport equipment imports increased. As of November, the import demand of 12 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, increased. China reduced its import demand for coal and chemical products, with 5 industries, including ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, showing a decline [29][32]. Export Industries - China's manufacturing exports rebounded. As of November 2025, the export value of manufacturing (105.9) expanded, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries (99.3) and mining (66.7) continued to contract. Among the 24 industries with expanding export value, 9 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, had relatively large increases [36][37]. - China's transport equipment exports were strong. As of November, 4 industries, such as railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing, showed an increase in both export volume and price. The exports of oil, gas, and entertainment products declined, with 6 industries, such as the wine, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry, showing a decrease in export demand [39][41]. Commodity Comparison - China's weapon imports contracted, and art imports expanded again. As of November 2025, the import value index expanded at a slower pace, with 13 types of commodities showing growth and 8 showing a decline [45]. - China's art exports contracted, but precious metal exports expanded. As of November 2025, the export value index expanded at an accelerated pace, with 11 types of commodities showing growth and 10 showing a decline [46]. Import - China's demand for resource imports remained high. As of December 2025, China's imports of bauxite (29.4%) and rubber (16.7%) continued to grow at a relatively high rate. The import growth rates of some key commodities continued to slow, such as rare earths (- 24%) and automobiles (- 32.4%) [53]. Export - China's export demand for goods remained strong. As of December 2025, the exports of cement (107.2%), fertilizers (44%), and electric vehicles (63.8%) maintained high growth rates. Only a few commodities' exports declined, such as machine tools (- 8.2%) and aluminum (- 8%) [58]. Net Export - China's net export demand for goods remained strong overall. As of December 2025, the net exports of electric vehicles (93.3%), grain (56.3%), and other commodities maintained high growth rates. Only a few commodities' net exports declined, such as aluminum (- 12.4%) and rubber (- 13%) [62]. Regional Comparison - China's foreign trade country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 foreign trade partners were ASEAN, the EU, the US, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea. In the past 5 years, the trade volume between ASEAN and China increased by 1.59 percentage points, while that between the US and China decreased by 5.30 percentage points [66]. - China's import country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 import sources were ASEAN, the EU, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan. In the past 5 years, China's import share from Russia increased by 2.21 percentage points, while that from the EU and the US decreased [66]. - China's export country structure: As of December 2025, China's top 5 export destinations were ASEAN, the EU, the US, Hong Kong, China, and Vietnam. In the past 5 years, China's export share to ASEAN increased by 2.72 percentage points, while that to the US and Hong Kong, China decreased [67]. - China's foreign trade growth rate: As of December 2025, the 3 countries or regions with the highest trade growth rates with China were Hong Kong, China (25.66% YoY), Vietnam (16.77% YoY), and Indonesia (14.79% YoY); the 3 with the lowest were the US (- 25.97% YoY), Malaysia (- 19.89% YoY), and Canada (- 6.55% YoY) [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on January 13, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 13, 2026, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: 1101700 contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 1611300 contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 2474400 contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 56800 contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 2472600 contracts for ChiNext ETF options, 82000 contracts for SSE 50 stock index options, 217000 contracts for CSI 300 stock index options, and 496700 contracts for CSI 1000 options [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type is shown in Table 1 [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data for different stock index options on January 13, 2026, are presented, including both turnover PCR and open interest PCR, along with their respective环比 changes. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.50 with a环比 change of -0.06, and the open interest PCR was 0.98 with a环比 change of -0.01 [2][36]. Option VIX - The VIX data for different stock index options on January 13, 2026, are provided, along with their环比 changes. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 19.29% with a环比 change of -0.93% [3][49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, although the overall demand is weak, the limited remaining grain at the grass - roots level and the strong reluctance to sell among farmers and traders, along with the limited impact of recent state - reserve auctions on market sentiment and the gradual release of pre - holiday stocking demand, lead to the market expectation that the price is likely to rise in the short term [2] - For peanuts, the current domestic peanut market has an abundant overall supply, and the price has declined. The stable purchase price of oil mills for oil peanuts supports the price of common peanuts in Henan, while the price in the Northeast is relatively high. In the short term, the peanut market is expected to be weakly stable, and the change in downstream procurement rhythm needs to be continuously monitored [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans No.1 2605 contract yesterday was 4329.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 27.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.62% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 111, a change of + 27 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The current soybean market quotes in Northeast China are generally stable. With the gradual digestion of the remaining grain at the grass - roots level, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a shortage of effective market circulation of grain. Recently, some grain - holding enterprises have become more willing to sell, and the supply of goods through auctions or external quotations has increased compared with the previous period [1] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7868.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 90.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.13% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7991.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.17%. The spot basis was PK03 - 868.00, a change of + 90.00 from the previous day, a decrease of 9.39%. The average price of common peanuts in the national peanut market was 8005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The average contract purchase price of oil peanuts by national oil mills was 7314 yuan/ton, and the average price in Shandong was 7238 yuan/ton, remaining stable [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The inflation narrative is prominent currently. The subsequent boost in consumption and the advancement of "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The future path of price recovery still depends on supply - side policies. There are signs of inflation cooling in the US in December. Attention should be paid to China's December import and export data. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The report suggests seizing opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, and recommends buying futures of stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery through monetary policy tools. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela are rising, and the global competition for minerals and energy resources is intensifying. The Fed's third - in - command stated that there is no strong pressure to change interest rates. CME will adjust the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts [1] Economic Data Comparison - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year in US dollars. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December were better than expected. The US December ISM manufacturing index declined slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate remained high. The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the core CPI hit a four - year low [2] Commodity Analysis - Currently, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities in low - valued commodities. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metals sector persists, with aluminum and nickel being preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term risks in the new energy sector. The LME copper inventory has dropped to a six - month low. In the energy sector, the US plans to "distribute" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. In the chemical sector, there is potential for "anti - involution" in methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, monitor weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals on dips [3] Strategy - Buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - Trump will interview Rick Rieder for the Fed chair position on the 15th, and Rieder supports lowering the US benchmark interest rate to 3%. The investigation of Powell has caused internal strife. The New York Fed President said the labor market is stable and inflation may peak in the first half of 2026. The US December CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%. Trump pressured the US Supreme Court on tariffs and imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Japan's Prime Minister intends to dissolve the House of Representatives. CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The LME copper inventory dropped to a six - month low. Some commodity futures had significant price movements on January 13th [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices in some regions have increased after improved transactions, but new orders are being followed up cautiously. Supply is expected to increase in January as some gas-based and technical renovation enterprises resume production. Demand is picking up as winter and spring fertilizer procurement begins, and compound fertilizer and melamine production are recovering. Factory inventories are stable, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The Indian urea import tender has boosted the international market sentiment. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, national off-season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7] 2. Urea Production - Figures show urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [27][28][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Figures involve urea small particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, price differences between international and Chinese FOB prices, and urea export profit and disk export profit [38][41][49] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures display compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract trading volume and open interest [55][58][60] Market Data - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1774 yuan/ton (-9). The ex - factory price of small particles in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small lump anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+19), Henan basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+9), and Jiangsu basis was - 24 yuan/ton (+19). Urea production profit was 175 yuan/ton (+10), and export profit was 867 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - As of January 13, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 13.50 million tons (-3.70) [1] - As of January 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.17% (+3.28%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been continuously rebounding recently, but the expected upside is limited. The reasons for the rebound are the escalating Iran situation, the continuous low - level of CPC crude oil exports, and the short - term large - scale buying due to the annual re - balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index funds. In the future, the impact of commodity index funds will dissipate, and the Iran situation has been controlled in the short term, with no impact on the actual supply chain [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a 2.77% increase. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a 2.51% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.90% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - Venezuela's crude oil production dropped significantly from 1.16 million barrels per day at the end of November 2025 to about 880,000 barrels per day last week. PDVSA has ordered the restart of oil wells to restore production and is preparing for an internal audit and new business and investment after a cyber - attack [1] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have been lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran. They warned that overthrowing the Iranian regime would disrupt the oil market and harm the US economy [1] - The US government has applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade. US military and coast guard have seized five vessels in recent weeks. Although the transportation has resumed under US supervision, the government has filed multiple civil forfeiture lawsuits [1] Investment Logic - The reasons for the recent oil price rebound are the escalating Iran situation, low CPC crude oil exports, and short - term buying from index fund re - balancing. In the future, these factors will weaken, and the actual supply chain remains unaffected [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advisable [3] Risks - Downside risks include the reaching of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events. Upside risks are supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]