Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the supply surplus situation remains, and the short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is still insufficient. The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,440 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 94,219 lots, and the open interest was 62,803 lots. The contract showed a weak shock, and the trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and there was still a need for short - term correction. The 117,000 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel and other mainstream brands decreased. The trading sentiment of refined nickel improved, but the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,555 (259.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (0) tons [1]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The trading strategy is mainly range trading for single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,583 lots, and the open interest was 93,471 lots. The contract rose first and then fell, and the trading volume and open interest increased due to the contract switch. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and there was pressure above the 40 - day moving average. The 12,400 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [2]. - In the spot market, most quotes in the Foshan market remained the same as the previous trading day, and the trading volume did not improve significantly, with insufficient market confidence. The nickel - iron market quotes decreased, and it was expected that the nickel - iron price would be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,775 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 170 - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

化工日报 | 2025-07-16 聚酯产业链跟随成本震荡下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4322元/吨（较前一交易日变动-35元/吨，幅度-0.80%），EG华东市场现货价 4399元/吨（较前一交易日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.14%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）68元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-54美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为47元/吨（环比+16 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为55.3万吨（环比-2.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为48.1万吨（环比-6.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数9.6万吨，周度港口库存小幅去 库；本周华东主港计划到港总数4.5万吨，但副港到货计划集中6.5万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，检修集中期已过，乙二醇国产量呈现回升态势，7月负荷将逐步回 归高位，同时仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应 预期宽松，海外沙特乙二醇装置受电力影响后近期陆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic concentrated latex import profit and the expected increase in raw material output after the end of rain may lead to an increase in domestic full - latex production. The demand for downstream products is weak, and the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal import off - season, and the loss of profit from Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is expected to reduce the import pressure. After the maintenance of downstream semi - steel tires ends, the operating rate rebounds, and the supply - demand pattern of NR improves slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited. [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term. The supply of domestic butadiene has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to decline, alleviating the supply pressure. The restart of downstream maintenance devices is beneficial to butadiene demand. Under the loss situation of butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive butadiene rubber to continue to rebound. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of maintenance devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of simultaneous increase in supply and demand. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to be strong this week. [5] Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. [1] Market Information - Import: In June 2025, China imported 599,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total import was 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. [2] - Passenger car market: In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 13.522 million and 13.531 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% and 13%. The production and sales of passenger cars in 2025 developed steadily, which supported the incremental demand of the semi - steel tire supporting market. [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spread: On July 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 215 yuan/ton (+5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,863 yuan/ton (- 0.17), the NR basis was 132 yuan/ton (- 18). The price of full - latex was 14,350 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton (+30), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,750 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,180 yuan/ton (+30). [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.15), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 6.10 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15). [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+1.66%). [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (- 248), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258). [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spread: On July 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,380 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,014 yuan/ton (- 55). [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%). [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (- 530), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (+150). [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Options: Suspended [8] Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in copper prices in non - US markets. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and social inventories have increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, a - 0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 90 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a 155 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. As it was the last trading day of the 2507 contract, the market mainly quoted for the 2508 contract. After entering the 2508 contract, it is expected that the initial quote will maintain a 150 - yuan/ton premium, but the spot premium may quickly decline due to low inventory costs and weak demand [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In the US, the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%. Interest rate futures show that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this month is small, but there is a high possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September. The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. China's economy grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year, and 5.2% in the second quarter [3] - **Mine End**: On July 14, Tyranna Resources signed an agreement to acquire a 70% stake in the Maongo copper - gold project in Angola, which is expected to get approval in the third quarter [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.95 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to June was 40.32 million tons, a 2.9% cumulative year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in China" [4] - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded to 67%, but was still 4.56 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of the copper cable industry reached 71.52%. It is expected that the operating rate of copper rod enterprises will rise to 74.57% next week, and the operating rate of the copper cable industry will fall to 70.57% [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 110,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 15,754 tons to 50,133 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons, a change of 3,900 tons from the previous week [6][7] Table Data - The table shows copper price and basis data from July 16, 2025, including spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability [29][30][31]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The downstream has limited restocking behavior despite the decline in absolute prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium is stable. The import ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is still high, with an expected supply surplus in the second half of the year. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation, which may suppress zinc prices [3] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$5.61 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 30 yuan to 22,150 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 30 yuan to 22,080 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of -40 yuan per ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 30 yuan to 22,110 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of -10 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On July 15, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,110 yuan per ton and closed at 22,085 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton. Trading volume was 119,038 lots, a decrease of 17,102 lots from the previous day, and the position was 84,304 lots, a reduction of 9,873 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,195 yuan per ton [1] Inventory - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 15, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons from the previous day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, the decline in absolute prices fails to stimulate restocking. The supply is sufficient, and the spot premium is stable. The import ore TC is rising, and smelting profits are high, with an expected supply surplus in the second half of the year. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory and low procurement enthusiasm. Although downstream consumption shows resilience, it cannot offset the high - growth supply, leading to inventory accumulation, which may suppress zinc prices [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

456789:;<=>?2025-07-16 6 !"# CPI $%&'()*+,-./0 ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 7 月 15 日晚美国劳工部公布 6 月通胀数字。其中： ■ 23 经济数据短期波动风险，上游价格快速上涨风险 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 同比：CPI+2.7%，预期+2.6%，前值+2.4%；核心 CPI+2.9%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.8%。 环比：CPI+0.3%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.1%；核心 CPI+0.2%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.1%。 &'"( ■ 6 !"#$%&'() 6 月美国 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，环比上涨 0.3%，略高于预期，主要受到能源、食品、住 房等项目的支撑，尤其是能源环比涨幅达到 1.5%，但核心 CPI（剔除食品和能源）同 比上涨 2.9%，环比上涨 0.2%，连续第五个月低于预期，显示出基础物价压力依然温和。 商品型通胀 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides an overview of the stock index options market on July 14, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai 50ETF options was 1.0046 million contracts; that of CSI 300ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.8352 million contracts; that of CSI 500ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.0094 million contracts; that of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 0.0579 million contracts; that of ChiNext ETF options was 0.8408 million contracts; that of Shanghai 50 stock index options was 0.0352 million contracts; that of CSI 300 stock index options was 0.0737 million contracts; and that of CSI 1000 options was 0.1553 million contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai 50ETF options was reported at 0.61, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the position PCR was reported at 1.17, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04. Similar data for other options are also provided, showing the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, position PCR, and its month - on - month change [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai 50ETF options was reported at 16.04%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.11%. The VIX and its month - on - month changes for other options are also presented [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, and the pressure of methanol arriving at Chinese ports remains high, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. The Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented. If it is carried out smoothly, port demand will be further affected. Although the short - term situation at ports is weak, the market expects a significant scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, which makes the long - term outlook optimistic [2] - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of inland coal - based methanol has led to a decline in supply. Although the formaldehyde in traditional downstream industries is in a seasonal off - season, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. The demand in the inland region remains resilient, and the inventory rebuilding rate of inland methanol factories is still slow. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc [37][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market off - season continues, and polyolefins fluctuate downward. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, with low terminal operating rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and there is little hope of short - term improvement. The upstream petrochemical plants are in the maintenance season, with a slight increase in maintenance enterprises, a decline in capacity utilization, and continuous release of new capacity, so the overall supply maintains an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices rebound slightly, propane prices remain weak, and the overall cost support remains weak, while the profit of PDH - made PP remains slightly profitable [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-7），PP主力合约收盘价为7067元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7100元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 84元/吨（-13），LL华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+7），PP华东基差为33元/吨（-18） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为77.8%（-1.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-0.8%）；PE油制生产利润为83.4元/吨（-125.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 306.6元/吨（-125.8），PDH制PP生产利润为231.2元/吨（+24.6） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 133.3元/吨（+8.4），PP进口利润为 - 628.4元/吨（-1.2），PP出口利润为28.8美元/吨（+0.2） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.1%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.0%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.6%（+0.3%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - The recent strong trend of crude oil prices has provided some support to the LPG market, leading to a slight increase in the prices of overseas and domestic LPG spot, but the increase is relatively limited, and the LPG market still lacks its own driving force. Currently, overseas supply remains abundant, China's LPG arrivals in July have climbed again, port inventories are high, and domestic production volume has not significantly declined, resulting in sufficient overall supply. On the demand side, civil combustion consumption is in the off - season with continuous low demand. In the deep - processing sector, PDH profit is under pressure, and the operating rate has dropped back to 70%, with insufficient impetus for demand improvement [1] Market Analysis - On July 14, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4630; Northeast market, 4160 - 4380; North China market, 4425 - 4630; East China market, 4380 - 4650; Yangtze River region market, 4520 - 4610; Northwest market, 3950 - 4200; South China market, 4600 - 4700 [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen cargoes in East China, China were propane at 567 US dollars/ton (stable), and butane at 547 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4460 yuan/ton (stable) and butane at 4303 yuan/ton (up 39 yuan/ton) [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen cargoes in South China, China were propane at 567 US dollars/ton (stable), and butane at 547 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4460 yuan/ton (stable) and butane at 4303 yuan/ton (up 39 yuan/ton) [1] Figures - Figures include those related to spot prices of civil LPG and ether - post carbon four in different regions, as well as closing prices, month - to - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]