Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices increased slightly after a period of slow new - order follow - up. The成交 atmosphere improved, with the improvement in the Northeast's compound fertilizer production, the increase in production in Shandong and Hubei, and the rise in melamine production. The entry of off - season storage and the news of export quotas also contributed to the better market situation. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to new capacity release, and gas - based maintenance is expected to start in December. The expected improvement in year - end exports is likely to support the spot market, and continuous attention should be paid to the Northeast compound fertilizer start - up rate, raw material procurement rhythm, and national off - season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 20, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1665 yuan/ton (+2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (+8), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 45 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of November 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1034 yuan/ton (- 9). In October, 120 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 400 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 60 million tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (- 0.59) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (- 4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+1.80) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-21 苹果主产区入库基本结束，红枣剩余货源价格松动 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易以稳为主。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库工作陆续进入后期，库 内交易较为稳定，好货价格稳定运行，短期内在外贸渠道等托底下行情预计维持稳定为主。目前受到柑橘等竞品 水果冲击，市场走货一般，后续关注市场对库存货源的消化能力。 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9496元/吨，较前一日变动+121元/吨，幅度+1.29%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-21 集团出栏增量，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11440元/吨，较前交易日变动-120.00元/吨，幅度-1.04%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.66元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+220，较前交易日变动+70；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH01+440，较前交易日变动+230；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.35元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH01-90，较前交易日变动+220。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 鸡蛋观点 据农业农村部监测，11月20日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.39，比昨天下降0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.49，比昨天下降0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.94元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；牛肉66.66 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉62.25元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；鸡蛋7.27元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification, but long - term cotton prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [3] - Global sugar production is in a surplus pattern, and the downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to cost support and policy factors [4][5] - The pulp market has insufficient fundamental improvement, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,465 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1098, up 26 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1326, up 32 from the previous day [1] - India's clothing export value in October 2025 was 1.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.88% and a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. As of November 17, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report was bearish, increasing global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season. The Northern Hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" was not prosperous, and now it is the off - season of the textile industry, with insufficient demand support [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure, but in the long - term, cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The sugar 2601 contract closed at 5366 yuan/ton yesterday, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5555 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 189, down 30 from the previous day [3] - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. From January to October 2025, the total imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - Globally, the sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [4] - In China, the new sugar season has a strong expectation of increased production, but the price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price. The stricter syrup control policy also supports the sugar price [4] Strategy - Be neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, and pay attention to the support at around 5350 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The pulp 2601 contract closed at 5298 yuan/ton yesterday, down 98 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 212, up 58 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 208, up 63 from the previous day [5] - The import wood pulp spot market price was weakly adjusted yesterday, with some brand prices in different regions falling [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply was still loose [6] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price [6] Strategy - Be neutral. The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and pay attention to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6]

宏观日报 | 2025-11-21 关注上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）广东省人民政府印发《广东省国家数字经济创新发展试验区建设方案（2025-2027年）》提出，到2027 年，数字经济发展水平稳居全国首位，数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重超过16%，打造3个具有国际竞争力的 万亿级数字产业集群，培育若干高价值数字产业新赛道，数据产业规模年均复合增长率超15%，人工智能核心产业 规模超过4400亿元，规模以上工业企业数字化转型突破6万家，算力规模超过60EFLOPS（每秒浮点运算次数），将 广东打造为国际一流数字经济发展高地，将粤港澳大湾区建设为全球数字化水平最高的湾区。 服务行业：1）中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰11月18日至20日到湖北、湖南调研。何立峰指出，要持 续推动外贸提质增效，完善高标准物流体系建设，加力支持制造业高质量发展，加快构建全国统一大市场，进一 步畅通国内国际双循环。此外还提到，要支持跨境电商等新业态新模式发展和海外仓建设，持续推动外贸市场多 元化，继续保持外贸平稳增长。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 下游：1）地产：二、三线城市商品房销售季节性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is in a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market faces low demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,750 yuan/ton and closed at 115,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 124,692 (+42,129) lots, and the open interest was 152,848 (12,764) lots. It showed a weak and oscillating downward trend. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy increased, the probability of a December interest rate cut was less than 50%, the US dollar strengthened, and the supply - demand relationship became looser with rising inventory, leading to a clear short - term downward trend [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen landed at $42/wet ton, and the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet had no deal. The nickel - iron tender price of downstream mainstream steel mills reached a new low of 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and iron plants were not very motivated to produce and mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by $0.12 - 0.2/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot transaction was okay. The premiums of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and nickel beans were 4,100 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 34,631 (- 793) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,172 (-1,674) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,330 yuan/ton and closed at 12,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,724 (+31,045) lots, and the open interest was 192,398 (-4,171) lots. The price basically followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel price, there was still no sign of price rebound [3]. - **Spot**: The price continued to decline and reached a historical low, the market sentiment was even more sluggish, and the transaction was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The SMM data showed that the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 894.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价87800-94800元/吨，较前一交易日变化2400元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价87000-90800元/吨，较前一交易日变化2400元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1245美元/吨，较前一日变化45美元/吨。 海关数据显示，10月锂辉石进口环比有所减量，达65.2万实物吨，折合碳酸锂当量（LCE）约6.1万吨。从来源国 看，澳大利亚、尼日利亚和津巴布韦三国合计贡献总进口量的85.7%。其中，澳大利亚来矿29.5万吨，环比减少15%； 尼日利亚来矿约11.0万吨，环减少8%，其中锂精矿占比明显增加；津巴布韦来矿为15.3万吨，环比增加40.9%。此 外，自南非的进口减量明显，10月进口近5.0万吨，环减54.1%。 去库幅度有所收窄，监管趋严，需注意减仓风险 市场分析 2025-11-20，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于99780元/吨，收于98980元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.84%。当日成 交量为1595646手，持仓量为479602手，前一交易日持仓量503132手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-9200元/吨 （ ...

社会库存持续震荡 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价21480元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-100元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录21450元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-125元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-20日沪铝主力合约开于21620元/吨，收于21530元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，最 高价达21640元/吨，最低价达到21515元/吨。全天交易日成交169843手，全天交易日持仓338582手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 库存方面，截止2025-11-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.1万吨，较上一期变化-2.5万吨，仓单库存69408 吨，较上一交易日变化-76吨，LME铝库存544075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860元/吨，广西价格录得291 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the unexpected increase in US non - farm payroll data has reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, leading to a decline in all three major US stock indexes [1][2][3] - The domestic market is operating with shrinking volume, with the trading volume of the two markets dropping to 1.7 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to take over is limited, and the sustainability of sectoral market trends is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the index at the lower edge of the box [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The content includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76% to 12980.82 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.12% to 3042.34 points, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to 4564.95 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.40% to 3008.29 points, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.85% to 7061.95 points, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.63% to 7340.41 points [13] - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: For IF, the trading volume was 128,286 (an increase of 5,673), and the open interest was 277,884 (an increase of 5,717); for IH, the trading volume was 58,076 (an increase of 4,537), and the open interest was 97,775 (an increase of 2,538); for IC, the trading volume was 137,568 (an increase of 4,976), and the open interest was 255,979 (an increase of 7,467); for IM, the trading volume was 211,533 (a decrease of 15,934), and the open interest was 361,945 (a decrease of 2,194) [16] - **Stock Index Futures Basis (Futures - Spot)**: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 6.95 (a decrease of 2.06), the next - month contract was - 25.75 (a decrease of 2.66), the current - quarter contract was - 58.75 (a decrease of 2.66), and the next - quarter contract was - 103.95 (a decrease of 4.66); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 0.31 (an increase of 2.66), the next - month contract was - 5.69 (an increase of 3.66), the current - quarter contract was - 12.69 (an increase of 1.26), and the next - quarter contract was - 23.09 (an increase of 1.06); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was 1.45 (an increase of 7.60), the next - month contract was - 61.95 (an increase of 6.00), the current - quarter contract was - 240.55 (an increase of 6.80), and the next - quarter contract was - 446.95 (an increase of 11.80); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was 7.19 (an increase of 4.00), the next - month contract was - 76.81 (an increase of 12.20), the current - quarter contract was - 305.21 (an increase of 13.20), and the next - quarter contract was - 533.41 (an increase of 15.20) [39] - **Stock Index Futures Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the differences between the next - month and current - month, next - quarter and current - month, etc. [46][48]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about the US employment market as of November 20, 2025 [2] - The key data includes non - farm employment, recruitment, unemployment rate, and salary growth rate [2][3][4] Group 2: Recruitment Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly average recruitment plan dropped significantly to 30,447 people, a decrease of 80,766 people compared to the September average, and it was 127,000 in 2021 (104,000 in 2019) [3] Group 3: Non - farm Employment - As of September 2025, the total non - farm employment increased by 119,000, with the government adding 22,000 and enterprises adding 97,000 [3] - In terms of industry structure, the retail industry added 139,000, the wholesale industry added 94,000, and the financial industry added 50,000 in September [3] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [3] Group 4: Salary Growth Rate - As of September 2025, the average weekly salary growth rate of private non - farm employment increased to 3.8%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to August [4] - In September, the growth rate of goods production was 3.7% (down 0.3 pct), and in service production, trade and transportation increased by 2.7 pct, information by 2.9 pct, and finance by 0.2 pct [4] - The non - farm employment presents a situation of apparent stability but internal weakness, with contradictory signals indicating weakening demand and a loose employment structure, which is not enough to prompt an immediate interest rate cut in December but strengthens the need for a subsequent interest rate cut cycle [4]