Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak, but the release of the draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device outages support the PVC futures to rebound. The policy has not directly impacted the current PVC supply, and its implementation needs continuous attention. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, downstream开工 has declined slightly, and social inventory has increased slightly. The overall supply - demand of PVC remains weak, and it is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment. [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased. The supply - side is operating at a high level, and the demand - side has general receiving sentiment. The demand for caustic soda may decline in the long - term due to the anti - involution policy of alumina. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4764 yuan/ton (- 41). The East China basis is - 284 yuan/ton (+ 31), and the South China basis is - 234 yuan/ton (+ 31). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4480 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (- 20). [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 714 yuan/ton (+ 47), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 279 yuan/ton (+ 56), and the PVC export profit is - 15.6 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2). [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.9 tons (+ 0.3), the social PVC inventory is 52.5 tons (+ 1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%). [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 tons (+ 0.9). [1] Strategy - Single - side: Rebound with the macro - sentiment [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2164 yuan/ton (- 78), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton (+ 37). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1090 yuan/ton (+ 0). [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1131 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 604.0 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 287.95 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00). [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 48.57 tons (+ 4.35), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+ 0.05), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 86.40% (+ 0.40%). [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.67% (- 0.47%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 60.81% (- 0.47%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%). [2] Strategy - Single - side: Oscillate weakly [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-06 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.18%，报2427元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.2%，报2891 元/吨。 元旦假期期间委内瑞拉局势升级，但对原油市场直接影响有限，油价维持弱势震荡态势，对FU、LU单边价格形成 压制。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体驱动有限。其中，高硫燃料油裂解价差与贴水下跌后， 带动炼厂端需求边际改善，中国高硫燃料油进口量近期有所回升。如果委油断供问题持续，可能会导致国内地炼 增加燃料油采购需求。不过目前来看，高硫燃料油货源依然较为充裕，市场暂无紧缺预期。 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期。但 汽柴油溢价会通过RFCC装置对低硫油组分进行分流，市场压力暂有限。 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油端弱势延续，关注炼厂端需求潜在增量 市场分析 策略 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Single side: Neutral, mainly wait - and - see in the short term; No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market currently shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price is relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction is limited. The price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG futures market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery also disturbs the market. In the short term, the fundamentals of LPG have both positive and negative factors, and in the medium term, the overseas supply is expected to increase, with a supply - surplus global balance sheet, so there is still resistance above the market [1] 3) Summary According to Related Content Market Analysis - On January 5th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4380 - 4430 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3960 - 4200 yuan/ton, North China market 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton, East China market 4250 - 4450 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4800 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 597 dollars/ton and 592 dollars/ton respectively, up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4616 yuan/ton and 4577 yuan/ton in RMB, up 12 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 589 dollars/ton and 584 dollars/ton respectively, up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4554 yuan/ton and 4515 yuan/ton in RMB, up 12 yuan/ton and 11 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices of LPG in Shandong, East China, and South China rose yesterday, and the market atmosphere was fair. The short - term fundamentals of LPG have both positive and negative factors, and in the medium term, the overseas supply is expected to increase, with a supply - surplus global balance sheet [1] Strategy - Single side: Neutral, mainly wait - and - see in the short term; no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The risk on the raw material side has intensified, causing the asphalt market to strengthen significantly. The concern about asphalt raw materials has increased due to the US airstrike on Venezuela and the control of President Maduro. As Venezuelan Merey crude oil is the main raw material for domestic asphalt production, the supply of Merey crude oil may tighten in the medium - term, leading to an increase in the asphalt cost center [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 5th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton or 3.95% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 95,437 lots, down 139 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 297,779 lots, up 133,632 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,306 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,020 - 3,190 yuan/ton; South China: 3,140 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China: 3,050 - 3,150 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish. Go long on the main BU contract on dips, and avoid excessive chasing of the upside [3]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (calendar spread) [3]. - Cross - commodity: No strategy [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3]. Figures The report presents various figures related to asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production volume in different regions and overall domestic weekly production, consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and refinery and social inventories [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The geopolitical situation is tense but under control, with the three major US stock indexes closing higher. A-shares had a good start on the first trading day of the new year, with active trading volume in the two markets, indicating a slow and long bull market. Although there may be periodic corrections in the future, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors are advised to actively focus on long opportunities in stock index futures [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Economy - Domestically, the CSRC held a symposium on the inter - departmental work promotion of the comprehensive punishment and prevention system for financial fraud in the capital market, aiming to strengthen the system and governance [1]. - Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 dropped slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders are still weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [1]. Spot Market - A - share indexes closed higher, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index achieving 12 consecutive positive days, rising 1.38% to close at 4023.42 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.85%. Most industry sectors rose, with brain - computer interfaces leading the way in the daily limit, and sectors such as media, pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and non - bank finance rising more than 3%. A few sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, banking, and transportation closed lower. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan [1]. - Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.23% to 48977.18 points, setting a new record high [1]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, the basis of stock index futures was repaired, with the premium of the current - month contracts of IC and IM declining [2]. - In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Despite the tense but controllable geopolitical situation, the three major US stock indexes closed up. A - shares had a good start on the first trading day of the new year, with active trading volume in the two markets, showing a slow - and - long - bull market pattern. Although there may be periodic corrections in the future, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors are advised to actively focus on long opportunities in stock index futures [3]. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: This section includes charts such as the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: It shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 5, 2026 and January 4, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., along with their daily percentage changes [5][6][12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: It includes information on the trading volume, open interest, basis, and inter - term spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [5][6][14][36][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The soybean market shows a game pattern of "bullish in producing areas and weak in selling areas", with policy support highlighting. The peanut market has a generally loose supply, but the actual trading activity is average due to the psychological reluctance of farmers and traders to sell [1][2][3] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4,243.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 97, up 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied from 2.12 to 2.33 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Situation**: The soybean futures main contract rose and then fell. The prices in southern selling areas were stable. The price transmission was blocked due to the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream enterprises, resulting in light trading. The policy support was significant, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed [1][2] Peanut - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7,938.00 yuan/ton, down 54.00 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 938.00, up 54.00 or - 5.44% month - on - month. The prices of different peanut varieties in various regions were stable [3] - **Market Situation**: The peanut futures main contract weakened. The overall peanut supply was loose, but the actual trading activity was average due to the reluctance of farmers and traders to sell. The downstream food enterprises mainly had rigid demand, and the demand from oil mills decreased [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - Apple consumption is currently weak, with slow transactions in most apple - producing areas. The price of high - quality apples remains firm, while that of ordinary and poor - quality apples shows signs of loosening. With the upcoming Spring Festival stocking, the sales situation in the sales areas needs to be continuously tracked. The low excellent fruit rate and inventory this year have led to high prices of high - quality apples, suppressing sales in the sales areas, and low - priced substitute fruits are squeezing the sales space of apples. [3][4] - Red dates have entered the consumption peak season, but the sales speed is only moderate. The new - date acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the inventory of new and old dates is superimposed, resulting in a relatively loose overall supply. The price is in a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the actual demand and sales speed in the lunar December consumption market, as well as the consumption release during the Spring Festival peak season. [7][8] Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9,547 yuan/ton, a change of +427 yuan/ton (+4.68%) from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1,347, a change of - 427 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1,147, a change of - 427 from the previous day. [1] Recent Market Information - The overall market of late Fuji in storage remains stable, but the transaction of in - storage goods is slow. High - cost - performance fruit farmer goods are hard to find. In Shaanxi, the transactions of fruit farmer goods are mainly small - volume extreme - quality goods, and merchants mainly ship their self - stored goods. In Gansu, merchants purchase fruit farmer goods as needed, with stable packaging and shipping and good sales. In Shandong, the transactions are sporadic, mainly with the shipment of 75 and third - grade goods. [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price opened low and closed high. Most apple - producing areas had slow trading speeds, except for Gansu where the trading was relatively stable. Merchants mainly traded their self - stored goods, and there were few transactions from fruit farmers. The festival trading atmosphere in the producing areas was insufficient. The price of high - quality apples remained firm, while that of ordinary and poor - quality apples loosened. Low - priced substitute fruits in the sales areas had an obvious impact on apples. The Spring Festival stocking may drive sales in the sales areas, so the sales areas need to be continuously monitored. [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. After entering January 2026, the Spring Festival stocking season has begun. However, the low excellent fruit rate and inventory this year have led to high prices of high - quality apples, suppressing sales in the sales areas, and low - priced substitute fruits are squeezing the sales space of apples. [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2605 contract yesterday was 8,955 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was - 755, a change of - 90 from the previous day. [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang's producing areas has basically ended. The mainstream prices of general - quality dates in different regions vary. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, there were 8 trucks of goods arriving, including off - grade and finished products. Local processing plants mainly processed and shipped their own goods, and holders actively sold their goods, while downstream merchants purchased as needed. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 8 trucks of goods arrived, mainly from Xinjiang, with a light purchasing and selling atmosphere and general downstream purchases. [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated narrowly yesterday. The acquisition work in Xinjiang, the main producing area of new dates, has ended, with limited remaining goods and reduced inland arrivals. Holders are accelerating the shipment, but the sales speed has been moderate after entering the consumption peak season. The superimposed inventory of new and old dates has led to a relatively loose overall supply. Attention should be paid to the actual demand and sales speed in the lunar December consumption market. [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new red dates are in storage, and the old inventory is superimposed, resulting in sufficient supply. Merchants mainly sell their self - purchased goods, and the sales speed in the sales areas is moderate. The price is in a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the subsequent downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak - season consumption changes. [8]

油脂日报 | 2026-01-06 棕榈油产区库存预期累积，盘面承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8488.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.12%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7856.00 元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9044.00元/吨，环比变化-43.00元，幅度-0.47%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.93%，现货基差P05+2.00，环比变化+16.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8270.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y05+414.00，环比变 化+26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.51%，现货基差OI05+736.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据路透与彭博最新调查显示，市场普遍预计马来西亚2025年12月棕榈油库存将继续累积，或 创近期新高，尽管产量受季节性因素影响出现大幅下滑。库存（Stocks）：路透预期297万吨（环比+4.7%），彭 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [4] - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production schedules, and long - term attention to the implementation of storage policies and inventory reduction progress [8] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 5, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated down. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,910 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.17)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 203,994 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 4, 2026 was 10,231 lots, a change of 204 lots from the previous day [2] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 18 was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week [2] - **Consumption End** - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Some northern silicon enterprises had production - cut plans, and the expected production of industrial silicon in January was to decrease month - on - month. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little, and silicone monomer enterprises had been reducing loads and production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, but the downstream demand of aluminum alloy was weakening marginally [3] - **Strategy** - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the upside and downside limited as described above [4] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 5, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated up, opening at 57,660 yuan/ton and closing at 57,920 yuan/ton, a change of 1.03% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 76,368 lots (83,335 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 23,571 lots [5] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (with a month - on - month change of 0.90%), the silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW (a month - on - month change of 6.92%), the weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons (a month - on - month change of -5.10%), and the silicon wafer output was 10.18GW (a month - on - month change of -1.45%) [5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different types are provided, with some prices remaining stable and some showing small changes [5][6][7] - **Strategy** - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in this range [8]