1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillatory [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillatory [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of fuel oil futures contracts rose, with the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closing up 1.09% at 2,972 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closing up 1.69% at 3,663 yuan/ton. After the OPEC meeting announced a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in August, the crude oil price first fell and then rose, showing strong support for the cost of fuel oil in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market has a relatively abundant supply in the spot market, and the cracking spread may need further adjustment. After the adjustment, it will receive new support [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the current market structure is relatively strong. However, in the medium term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum [2]. - The current market driver of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and the high-low sulfur spread does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [2]. 3. Strategy Summary High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Market trend: Oscillatory [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Market trend: Oscillatory [3] Cross-variety Strategy - Short the FU cracking spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] Cross-period Strategy - Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] Spot-futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3]

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-09 山东液氯继续下跌，支撑烧碱盘面 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4894元/吨（+2）；华东基差-114元/吨（-2）;华南基差-64元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（-20）；电石利润105元/吨（-20）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-552元/吨（-48）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-695元/吨（-2）；PVC出口利润-7.7美元/吨（+1.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.6万吨（-0.9）；PVC社会库存37.3万吨（+1.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.73%（+0.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.46%（-1.92%）；PVC开工率76.50%（-0.31%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量65.8万吨（+2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2408元/吨（+0）；山东32%液碱基差123元/吨（+63）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价810元/吨（+20）；山东50%液碱报 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-09 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 宏观情绪放缓，黑色震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪放缓，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3063元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3191元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，螺纹 相对偏弱，整体环比上一日略有好转，低价成交为主。昨日，全国建材成交9.6万吨。 综合来看：建材进入消费淡季，建材产量小幅回升，库存维持低位；板材产量环比小幅回升，整体利润尚可，目 前板材产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退坡后影响板材消费，但是当前出口仍保持高位。中央财 经委开会讨论治理"无序竞争"和"落后产能有序退出"，市场情绪得到提振，但由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季 弱需求将持续压制钢材价格。 跨品种：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场谨慎观望，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于733元/吨，涨幅0.14%。现 货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏不佳，钢厂采购多 以刚需为主。本期45 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-09 市场活跃度增加，指数回升 市场分析 关税政策前景不明。国内方面，国家主席在山西考察时强调，转型发展必须牢牢守住安全稳定底线。要着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，强化"一老一小"等重点民生保障服务。要强化社会治安整体防控，常态化开展扫 黑除恶，依法打击各类违法犯罪活动。海外方面，特朗普表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，可能未来两天 向欧盟发征税函。此外，特朗普在内阁会议上表示，他仍在计划对包括药品、半导体和金属在内的特定行业征收 关税，其中将对铜征收50%的关税，对药品征收高达200%的关税。美国商务部长卢特尼克称，铜关税将于7月稍晚 或8月1日到位。多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。巴西总统态度强硬，批评美方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长 警告称，若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议，欧盟准备采取反制措施。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数涨0.70%收于3497.48点，创业板指涨2.39%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，通信、电力设备、电力、建筑行业涨幅超2%，仅公用事业、银行行业小幅收跌。当日沪深两 市成交金额回升至1.45万亿元。海外市场，美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short - term neutral, upstream is recommended to sell hedging at high prices [3] - Polysilicon: Long - term suitable for low - level layout of long positions, short - term neutral [6][8] 2. Report's Core View - The influence of policies and emotions on the new energy and non - ferrous metals industry continues to ferment, with the polysilicon futures hitting the daily limit [1] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are short - term improved slightly, but the overall situation is still weak, and its futures price increase is affected by polysilicon [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise significantly due to policy disturbances, and mid - to long - term investment opportunities exist [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2509 opened at 8060 yuan/ton and closed at 8215 yuan/ton, up 2.82% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 387122 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51077 lots, down 272 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton [2] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic silicone DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. It is estimated that the silicone production in July will increase by 1.53% month - on - month [2] Strategy - The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the industry inventory is high, and there is hedging pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If there is no policy promotion, upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 36505 yuan/ton and closing at 38385 yuan/ton, up 7.00% from the previous day. The position was 110547 lots, and the trading volume was 634366 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, except for the increase in N - type materials. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The weekly polysilicon production was 24000.00 tons, up 1.69% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW, down 11.46% week - on - week [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5] Strategy - Recently, affected by policies and capital emotions, the prices of futures and spot have risen sharply. The market expects the polysilicon price to be above 39 - 40 yuan/kg. In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low levels [6]

Market Analysis - 5月国内数据好坏参半，投资数据走弱，地产边际压力增加，出口承压，仅消费表现有韧性，6月制造业PMI有所回升但经济企稳基础需夯实 [2] - 6月中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金，外汇储备稳步提升 [2] - 关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能 [2] - 特朗普对14个国家发出关税税率威胁，签署行政命令延长“对等关税”暂缓期至8月1日，白宫官员称特定国家关税不叠加征收 [2][7] - 日本和韩国对美方决定表示“遗憾”，均愿通过谈判解决问题，特朗普称将与印度达成协议，欧盟与美国贸易磋商紧张进行，美财长拟与中方会谈 [2][7] - 特朗普发布清洁能源行政命令，授意财政部收紧相关税收制度 [2][7] Macro Inflation - 特朗普签署法案使美国政府债务未来十年或增3.4万亿美元，美国政策转向“易松难紧”阶段，国内中央财经委会议使市场通胀交易升温 [3] - 海外通胀预期受货币主导，美国6月非农数据超预期使美联储重启宽松不顺畅，国内通胀核心在供给侧，需更多行业压产细节政策确定通胀交易主线 [3] Commodity Sector - 7月2日100吨铜抵达香港仓库，7月15日起可用于LME合约交割，标志LME在中国内地周边建仓储网络进展 [4][7] - 国内供给侧敏感的是黑色和新能源金属板块，海外通胀预期受益显著的是能源和有色板块 [4] - 黑色板块受下游需求预期拖累，有色板块供给受限未缓解，能源短期地缘溢价结束，中期供给偏宽松，OPEC+8月增产54.8万桶/日 [4] - 农产品短期无天气扰动，波动空间有限 [4] Strategy - 工业品逢低多配 [5]

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil supply-demand outlook is poor, and the expectation of oversupply weighs on oil prices, but geopolitical tensions support it. The development of "reciprocal tariffs" and Trump's uncertain actions on tariffs bring risks to market expectations [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the aromatics entering the gasoline pool is restricted. The short - flow PX plants have restarted due to profit recovery [2] - The PXN has widened due to the maintenance of several domestic PX plants and the tight supply in the spot market. The continuation of the tight supply - demand situation of PX depends on PTA maintenance and new plant commissioning [2] - The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester load is expected to decline in July [3] - The PF fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The PR processing fee is expected to recover in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures show toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][54][63][66][70] PF Detailed Data - Figures show 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [74][76][84][88][89] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [91][97][101][103]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - In the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,343 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 71 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Several ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with annual capacities of 450,000, 550,000, and 700,000 tons are restarting after a short - term shutdown due to power issues last week [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 17 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 15 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 580,000 tons (up 35,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 542,000 tons (up 36,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 106,000 tons, with inventory depletion. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main ports is 106,000 tons, and there is pressure for inventory to rise later [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the cancellation of warehouse receipts will supplement the tradable spot. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart, with concentrated arrivals in early July. On the demand side, several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, with weak demand expectations [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided in the given text [1][4][5] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 17 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 15 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month). The report also mentions the overall load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [1][10][16] International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [4][17][19] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The report mentions the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [4][18][20] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 580,000 tons (up 35,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 542,000 tons (up 36,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 106,000 tons, with inventory depletion. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main ports is 106,000 tons, and there is pressure for inventory to rise later. The report also mentions the inventory of ethylene glycol in various ports and the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester plants, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [1][5][30]

油料日报 | 2025-07-09 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4104.00元/吨，较前日变化+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+196，较前日变化-25，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低2.7%，创两周新低，主要 原因是美国中西部天气改善对作物生长极为有利，市场对中美贸易谈判未如预期推进感到失望。截至收盘，大豆 期货下跌21美分到28.50美分不等，其中7月期约下跌24.50美分，报收1031.75美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌24美分，报 收1031.50美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌28.50美分，报收1020.75美分/蒲式耳。7月8日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国 标 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pig industry is in a low - volatility cycle, with stable sow inventories and difficult rapid decline in production capacity. Whether secondary fattening can drive up prices in Q3 this year needs continuous attention [2] - The egg industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, with a loose supply pattern and weak demand. Egg prices are expected to be sluggish in the short term, and farmers' losses will continue [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,275 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 15.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 15.30 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.37 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Wholesale market: On July 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.51 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - Due to the decline in feed raw material prices and cost - reduction measures by group factories, self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The sow inventory is stable, and the production capacity is unlikely to decline rapidly [2] - In Q3 of the past two years, there were price peaks. This year, group factories are reducing supply to control prices, but the impact of secondary fattening on price increases is uncertain due to relevant policies [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3445 yuan/500 kg, down 4 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.36 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.50 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.44 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On July 8, the national production - link inventory was 1.27 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.60 days, down 0.01 days [3] Market Analysis - Eggs are in the seasonal consumption off - season, and there is no obvious consumption boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival. Despite possible decline in laying rate due to high temperature, the supply will remain loose [4] - The plum - rain season increases the probability of egg mildew, and traders are cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [5] Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]