Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.41% today [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Performance - **Plate Index**: The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase, rising 0.5%, while the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase, rising 0.15%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline, falling -1%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline, falling -0.22% [1]. - **Theme Index**: The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase, rising 0.72%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase, rising 0.31%. The Energy Index had the largest decline, falling -2.02%, and the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest decline, falling -0.1% [1]. - **Single - Variety Index**: The specific information about the largest - rising single - variety index is not fully provided. The largest - falling single - variety index was the jujube index, with a decline of -3.66% [3]. Industry Chain and Variety Performance - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Some varieties' single - variety index daily changes are as follows: synthetic ammonia -0.17%, polyethylene -0.86%, methanol -1.13%, naphtha -1.61%, LPG -2.37%, and styrene -2.37%, while flowers had an increase of 0.14% [2]. - **Black Sector**: Some varieties' single - variety index daily changes are as follows: certain products had a -0.75% change [2]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Some varieties' single - variety index daily changes are as follows: palm oil 0.23%, rapeseed oil 0.12%, rapeseed -0.08%, and live pigs 1.27% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a band - trading approach for treasury bond futures. It indicates that the bond market may enter a period of oscillation as the 10 - year treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.75%. It advises against chasing high prices and recommends taking profit on previous long positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Conditions - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow intraday fluctuations. Medium - and long - term bonds closed higher, while short - term bonds weakened at the end of the session. Spot bond yields first declined and then rose, with most turning upward by the end of the day. The open market had a net withdrawal of 20.35 billion yuan, and the funds were loose, with DR001 remaining at 1.31% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The second group leader meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank aims to jointly ensure the better implementation of fiscal and monetary policies - Bloomberg reported that China is considering measures to curb stock market speculation and seek stable development of the A - share market - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The opening of spot bonds continued the upward trend from the previous day's close, driving treasury bond futures to open higher. Then, each variety basically maintained a narrow - range shock. The A - share market fell for the third consecutive day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by up to 2% during the session, and the previous hot sectors experiencing greater declines. However, the bond market did not gain more upward momentum. After the futures market closed, spot bonds weakened, indicating a lack of further upward drivers in the bond market [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 was at 102.44 (unchanged), TF2512 at 105.745 (up 0.055), T2512 at 108.27 (up 0.15), and TL2512 at 117.4 (up 0.37) - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 429 to 76,004 hands, TF by 3,428 to 142,981 hands, T by 4,090 to 217,136 hands, and TL decreased by 2,021 to 140,684 hands - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0299 (down 0.0074), TF basis (CTD) was 0.0269 (down 0.0577), T basis (CTD) was 0.3866 (down 0.0537), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.8792 (up 0.1384) - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 5,941 to 31,545 hands, TF by 501 to 62,934 hands, T decreased by 2,944 to 83,913 hands, and TL decreased by 21,692 to 135,244 hands [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission has limited impact on the market. Before the new cotton is listed, the low - inventory situation still supports cotton prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly restored, and the overall downstream confidence is still insufficient. The strategy is to go long on dips but not to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the listing time and opening price of new cotton and the subsequent downstream peak - season sales [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for cotton is 13,800 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0924 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2606 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400. They can also sell call options (CF601C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 300 - 350 to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,800 - 13,900 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - **Inventory Support**: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of August 15, the domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July, which supports cotton prices [4]. - **Downstream Seasonal Changes**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, and the load of cloth mills continues to rise slightly, showing signs of the peak season [4]. - **USDA Report Impact**: The USDA's August supply - demand forecast report lowered the US cotton production and raised China's consumption, and significantly lowered the global ending inventory [4]. Negative Factors - **Quota Issuance**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas to supplement the market supply before the new cotton is listed [5]. - **New Cotton Outlook**: The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, and the overall growth is good, with an optimistic outlook for the new - year production [5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Cotton Futures**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,010, up 20 (0.14%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,950, unchanged; Cotton 09 closed at 13,580, up 5 (0.04%) [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures**: Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,995, unchanged; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,215, down 100% (this data seems abnormal); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 20,100, up 475 (2.42%) [7]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - **Cotton - related Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,441, down 34; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 60, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 370, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 430, down 15 [8]. - **Other Spreads**: The cotton - yarn spread was 5,990, up 20; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,216, up 140; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 517, unchanged [8]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 15,451, down 14 (- 0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,541, down 12 (- 0.09%); CCI 2129B was 15,703, down 16 (- 0.1%) [9]. - **Foreign Indexes**: FCI Index S was 13,708, up 108 (0.79%); FCI Index M was 13,492, up 107 (0.8%); FCI Index L was 13,194, up 110 (0.84%) [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The decline in the BDI shipping market widened this week. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices continued to fall, with the decline exceeding 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index continued to narrow. Only the BHSI freight rate index maintained a sharp increase. The demand for large ships has reached saturation, but the significant increase in agricultural product shipments, especially from Uruguay, may be an early stockpiling measure in response to US tariff policies, which supports the demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with August 27th data, on September 3rd, the BDI composite freight rate index continued to weaken with an enlarged decline. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices' declines both exceeded 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index narrowed. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 1940 points, down 5.18% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 2773 points, down 7.23% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1719 points, down 8.27% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1467 points, up 1.38% week - on - week; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 788 points, up 5.77% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - Compared with September 2nd, on September 3rd, the FDI composite index turned down. The only rising route was the capesize ship rental freight route from Australia to Zhoushan, China, with the freight increasing 0.03% on the day. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1329.93 points, down 1.3% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1622.47 points, down 1.89% month - on - month; the capesize ship rental index closed at 1674.63 points, down 2.55% month - on - month; the panamax ship rental index closed at 1516.52 points, down 2.37% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rental index closed at 1658.87 points, down 0.53% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index closed at 1134.9 points, down 0.74% month - on - month [9]. 3.1当日发运国发运用船数量 - On September 4th, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 44 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 22 ships, Uruguay used 4 ships, and Australia used 0 ships. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 59 ships, Guinea used 27 ships, Indonesia used 37 ships, Russia used 21 ships, South Africa used 18 ships, Brazil used 7 ships, and the US used 10 ships [16]. 3.2当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 18 ships were used for corn, 25 for wheat, 27 for soybeans, 14 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 109 ships were used for coal, 65 for iron ore, and 13 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipments, the most required were post - panamax ships (39), followed by super - handy ships (26), and then handy ships (20). For industrial product shipments, the most required were large capesize ships (76), followed by post - panamax ships (63), and then super - handy ships (57) [17]. 4.主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The weekly data showed that the number of ships docked at all ports increased month - on - month, with the most obvious increase in Australian ports. The early - September data showed that "one port decreased, two ports increased". The number of dry - bulk ships docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 7 month - on - month, the number of ships at Australian ports decreased by 1 month - on - month, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports increased by 1 month - on - month [18]. 5.运费与商品价格的关系 - On September 3rd, Brazilian soybeans were at $39/ton, and on September 4th, the near - term shipping quote was 3993.74 yuan/ton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $25677/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $121.6/kiloton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13519/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 542.08 yuan/ton. On September 3rd, the handy - sized ship freight rate index was quoted at 774.4 points, and on August 29th, the CFR price of 4 - meter radiata pine ACFR was $116/cubic meter [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the LPG market is mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwining to influence the market; the fundamentals have not changed much [4]. - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil [5]. - Against the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand for crude oil, there is still downward pressure in the future; the domestic fundamentals remain loose, with few refinery overhauls and a relatively abundant supply of liquefied gas; there is not much change on the demand side; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.15% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops (long in the spot market), to prevent inventory depreciation losses, companies can short PG2510 futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 4400 - 4500; they can also sell the PG2510C4500 call option to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 60 - 80 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short in the spot market), to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising PG prices, companies can buy PG2510 futures at lower prices on the market to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 4200 - 4300; they can also sell the PG2510P4200 put option to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 20 - 30 [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Aggregation - Various price data including Brent, WTI, MOPJ M1, MOPJ spot, NWE NAP M1, NWE NAP spot, etc., show daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent was at 67.39 on September 3, 2025, down 1.68 from the previous day and up 0.19 from the previous week [8]. - There are also data on spreads, such as FEI - MOPJ M1, NWE C3 - NAP, etc., and their corresponding daily and weekly changes [10]. - Information on monthly spreads like LPG08 - 09, LPG09 - 10, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Ratio data including MB/WTI, FEI/Brent, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Data on both盘面 and spot profits, such as盘面import profit - FEI, Asian naphtha cracking profit, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Freight data including the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The decline in the stock market today has widened, which generally aligns with the idea of a fall in sentiment and a rise in risk - aversion mentioned yesterday. Banks, consumer - related industries, public utilities, and transportation, which had relatively small increases since June 20, showed resilience, while TMT continued to lead the decline. Although the trading volume of the two markets has fallen from the high of three trillion, it remains at an active level. After three consecutive negative days in the stock market, sentiment is expected to be cautious, and there is significant pressure for a short - term rebound. However, the short - selling power is not strong, as indicated by the long lower shadow of the stock index. With no strong negative factors, after a rapid and substantial short - term correction, the stock market is expected to return to a volatile state [4]. Market Review - The stock index declined with increased trading volume today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 2.12%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 180.171 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties declined with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [3]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.88 | -1.51 | -2.42 | -2.21 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 21.4783 | 10.143 | 19.4079 | 38.3239 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 1.8541 | 1.5325 | 2.7933 | 4.4942 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 29.8905 | 11.1522 | 26.1202 | 40.4746 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 1.2436 | 0.8984 | 1.6332 | 0.5496 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.25 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -2.83 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.72 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 25442.57 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 1801.71 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening due to the maintenance of some external devices, while the long - term devices will gradually resume production, and new devices from Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical are to be put into operation. Currently, the 01 contract is still relatively far away, and market participation is low [3]. - Bullish factors include the rising crude oil risk premium caused by the Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue, providing cost support, and the strong operation of overseas propane prices. In the Shandong market, the maintenance of Zhenhua's 750,000 - ton PDH, Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH, and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH has reduced the overall external supply, and the supply - demand situation is more tense than in August [4]. - Bearish factors include the addition of PP maintenance devices in Jinneng and Yulong this week, which will lead to some propylene external supply and narrow the supply - demand gap. The PP supply is at a high level, while downstream demand is limited, causing some enterprises to stop PP production and release propylene. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has shrunk to 165 yuan/ton, lower than the processing cost. There are rumors that OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0646, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.0625 [2]. 3.2 Propylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about propylene price decline (long spot exposure), they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) on rallies according to their inventory to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6700) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and hoping to purchase based on orders (short spot exposure), they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) on dips to lock in procurement costs through on - disk procurement, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 6,300 - 6,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. 3.3 Industrial Data Summary - **Upstream Prices**: On September 3, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.39/barrel, down $1.68 from the previous day and up $0.19 from the previous week; WTI crude oil was at $63.77/barrel, down $1.85 from the previous day and down $0.09 from the previous week. Other upstream prices also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The mid - stream propylene prices in different regions and related price differences are presented. For example, the price in the Shandong market on September 3, 2025, was 6,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 70 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The downstream product prices such as polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and epoxy propane also had corresponding price changes. For example, the price of polypropylene powder was 6,780 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Profits**: The profits of different production processes and products in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 795.66 yuan/ton, down 30.27 yuan from August 27 [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between upstream and downstream products and different contracts are also provided. For example, the spread between PP01 and PL01 was 539 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 38 yuan from the previous week [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferrous Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The recent trading logic is the production restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferrous alloy furnace materials. The ferrous alloy prices have followed the decline of coking coal prices. However, the possibility and space for further decline are limited. There is still support at the bottom, but there is also pressure at the top under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit of ferrous alloys has been continuously declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure at the top. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Key Points by Section Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.0%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese alloy is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.08% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation, with a selling orientation and a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrous alloy prices, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage, with a buying orientation and a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradiction - The price of ferrous alloys has followed the decline of coking coal. Although there is still a possibility of further decline, the space is limited. There is support at the bottom, but pressure at the top under high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit has been declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4] Bullish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese alloy in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply of ferrous alloys is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. The enterprise inventory is 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the market doubts the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese alloy. The production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [8] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for silicon ferroalloy, silicon manganese alloy, and coking coal, as well as various seasonal charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, including market price, basis, and futures spread seasonal charts [9][10][11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The prices of all monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. The futures prices dropped as expected following the decline in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, especially Maersk's new weekly cabin opening quotes. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with available cabin space but full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling EC2510 is 1350 - 1450 [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins based on order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures to lock in booking costs. The recommended entry range for buying EC2510 is 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Information - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from the 39th to the 41st week, canceling a total of four voyages. Maersk increased the quotes for some newly added cabins in early September [2]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, and the quotes of MSC and Hapag - Lloyd for spot cabins on the European line in early September continued to fall [3]. Data Analysis - **EC Basis and Price Spread**: The basis, daily and weekly changes of different EC contracts on September 4, 2025, are provided, along with the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads between different contracts [4]. - **Shipping Quotes**: Maersk's shipping quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam for different container types and departure dates in September are given, showing some increases and decreases. MSC's quotes for the next two weeks decreased, and Hapag - Lloyd's average quotes for the past three weeks also declined [6]. - **Global Freight Index**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of multiple global freight indexes, including SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX, are presented [7]. - **Port Waiting Time**: The waiting times at major global ports on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, are provided, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Yantian, Singapore, Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah ports [14]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Vessels**: The average speeds of different types of container ships on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage are given [22].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: Supportive policies are gradually taking effect. Policies to boost service consumption in September are in focus, and real - estate policies are advancing. However, the impact on the overall market may be limited. The improvement in economic sentiment in July was marginal, and industrial profit repair will take time [2]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, indicating a "soft landing." The low JOLTS job openings in July have increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data this week. The long - term government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached new highs, and the potential "credit crisis" in the global market should be monitored [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The key issue of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is the rhythm control. The spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium level, and it is less likely to return to the "6 era" in the short term [4]. - **Stock Index**: The external pressure on the A - share market has weakened. With the support of domestic policies and loose liquidity, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's bottom may be further consolidated, but caution is needed regarding the upward space [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term prices are strong, and investors can maintain a strategy of buying on dips [12]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US [14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices may be supported [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom in the short term, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have corrected recently. The medium - term trend depends on demand recovery, and the impact of Indonesia's riots is limited [21][22]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may rise slightly in the short term due to tight supply [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak - oscillating phase, and the key is to observe the downstream's actual purchasing demand [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and polysilicon is in a wide - range oscillating pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with sufficient support at the bottom [28]. - **Black Metals**: The fundamentals of steel products remain weak, and the price trend is bearish. Iron ore prices are supported after the resumption of steel mills, and the coke and coking coal markets are looking for support downward [32][33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production. The LPG market is affected by overseas factors, and the PTA - PX market is weakening with the overall commodity sentiment and oil prices. Other energy - chemical products also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [38][40][42][44] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, and the Fed's officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The global bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the eurozone's PMI has been slightly revised down [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The US job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low, increasing the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index declined with shrinking volume yesterday. The weak JOLTS data in the US has strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, reducing the external pressure on the A - share market [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market closed higher yesterday. The decline in the stock market has led to an increase in the bond market's gains at the end of the session [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) declined with the drop in the spot price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [7][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market continued to rise on Wednesday. The low JOLTS data in the US has increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on economic data and events this week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish [9][10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Wednesday, mainly due to the US economic situation. It may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The price may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. The supply and demand situation is affected by production capacity and seasonal factors [16]. - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The impact of environmental protection restrictions is short - term [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the cancellation of tax - return policies [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price opened low and lacked upward momentum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is stable. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [19][20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel corrected on the day. The market is affected by factors such as the Indonesian benchmark price and the EU's stainless - steel tariff policy [20][21][22]. - **Tin**: The tin price has been rising recently due to tight supply. The production has decreased due to maintenance and reduced imports of tin concentrates [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the market is in a weak - oscillating phase [24]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price is oscillating, and the polysilicon futures price is in a wide - range oscillating pattern. Their prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and seasonal factors [25][26][27]. - **Lead**: The lead price opened low and closed high, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - prosperous in the peak season" situation [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have reached new lows recently. The supply exceeds the demand, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market is bearish [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has rebounded, and the term structure is in a positive - spread arbitrage. The resumption of steel mills after the parade has supported the price, but the upside space is limited [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are looking for support downward. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow, and the coking coal inventory structure has deteriorated [34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese is loose, and the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The profit has declined, and there is a possibility of production reduction [36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped significantly due to the possible production increase by OPEC+. The uncertainty of OPEC+'s production decision will be an important factor affecting the price next week [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuates with the crude oil price. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has little change. The market is affected by overseas factors [42]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices of PX and PTA have weakened with the overall commodity sentiment and the decline in the crude oil price. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the profit is under pressure [44][45][46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at a low level. The supply and demand are in a state of change, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. The bottle - chip demand is not good [48][49]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is mainly affected by the high - volume shipments from Iran and the port inventory pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and short put options [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. The future trend depends on whether the downstream demand can maintain a high growth rate [54][55]. - **PE**: The polyethylene market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate [56][57][58]. - **PVC**: The PVC price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [59][60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have stopped falling. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the supply of styrene will change in different periods. Short - term short - selling is not recommended [61][62][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is waiting for the guidance of the OPEC meeting. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable. The price is under pressure from the spot market [65]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is stable, but the demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortage. It is mainly following the cost fluctuation in the short term [67][68]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber market is in a multi - empty stalemate. The price is affected by factors such as the crude oil price, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic data. It is expected to oscillate widely [69][70][71]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is in a weak supply - demand situation. The market is waiting for the Indian tender news. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [72][73]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The soda ash inventory has decreased slightly. The market situation is relatively weak [74].