Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, affected by enterprise maintenance and lower tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with a stable macro - environment, tin prices may rise slightly further, with the upper target set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 273,120 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 12.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.4% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: 273,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - LME Tin 3M: 34,620 dollars/ton, down 115 dollars (- 0.33%) [6] - Shanghai - London ratio: 7.85, up 0.08 (1.03%) [6] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: 273,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.4%) [10] - 1 tin premium: 0 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 100%) [10] - 40% tin concentrate: 261,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - 60% tin concentrate: 265,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - Other tin - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [10] 4. Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: - 20,238.59 yuan/ton, up 143.67 yuan (- 0.7%) [12] - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts: 7,407 tons, up 144 tons (1.98%) [14] - LME tin inventory: 2,175 tons, up 20 tons (0.93%) [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant drop in US stocks and a sharp increase in European and American long - term bond yields, led to an over - rise, and the price fell during the daytime. Considering tight supply and the US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.39%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.3% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies, increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a lower US dollar index and higher non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rising lower support level [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Uncertain tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 0.56% to 80,110 yuan/ton; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was at 80,010 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M was at 9,974 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 80,520 yuan/ton, 80,435 yuan/ton, 80,280 yuan/ton, and 80,580 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.45%, 0.41%, 0.39%, and 0.44% [7]. Copper Scrap and Refined Copper Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,762.98 yuan/ton, down 4.81%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,503.8 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 19,471 tons, down 0.15%; the total International Copper warehouse receipts are 5,422 tons, down 3.13% [14]. - **Inventory**: The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, down 0.13%; the COMEX copper inventory is 284,400 tons, up 4.52% [16][17]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 53.18 yuan/ton, down 116.83%; the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 dollars/ton, down 1.62% [18].

1227吨；截止8月29日当周的SGX白银库存周增1.7吨至1283.6吨。 南华金属日报:关注晚间美ADP与ISM服务业PMI 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月4日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场延续上涨，美指略有回落，10Y美债收益率回调，短端美债收益率则跟随降息预期增强而持 续走低，欧美股普遍反弹，比特币回升，原油则大幅下跌亦支持美联储降息前景。目前市场焦点在美联储降 息预期、美联储人事调整和独立性问题以及债市风险上，数据方面则聚焦于周五晚美8月非农就业报告。最终 COMEX黄金2512合约收报3619.7美元/盎司，+0.77%，创历史新高；美白银2512合约收报于41.81美元/盎 司，+0.52%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约收814.88元/克，+1.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9820元/千 克，-0.15%。数据方面，周三晚间公布的美7月JOLTs职位空缺数低于预期，且前值下修，反映就业市场走 软，为9月降息必要性提供数据支持。消息面，美联储理事沃勒表示，本月应启动降息，未来3-6个月可多次 下调，节奏看数据；美联 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests a band - trading approach. It notes that on September 3, 2025, treasury bond futures rebounded as expected. Given the current situation where the 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to 1.75% and the bond market lacks catalytic factors, caution should be exercised regarding the further upside potential. It advises against chasing high prices, setting profit - taking when bottom - fishing, and keeping a small long position at low levels [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning and then declined, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again at the end of the session, with all varieties closing up. Spot bond yields generally declined. There was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion from the open market, and the funds were loose with DR001 at 1.31% [1]. - The A - share market continued to decline with a large adjustment range on this day. The morning rebound in the stock market reduced the bond market's gains, but the stock market's inability to stop the decline in the afternoon led to an expansion of the bond market's gains at the end of the session. The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, and if it enters a range - bound state in the future, its impact on the bond market will gradually weaken [2]. 2. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 03 Price | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 03 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.44 | 102.41 | 0.03 | 75575 | 74372 | 1203 | | TF2512 | 105.69 | 105.55 | 0.14 | 139553 | 138200 | 1353 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 107.93 | 0.19 | 213046 | 205357 | 7689 | | TL2512 | 117.03 | 116.61 | 0.42 | 142705 | 140312 | 2393 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0225 | - 0.04 | 0.0175 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 25604 | 21492 | 4112 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0846 | 0.0256 | 0.059 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 62433 | 52692 | 9741 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.4403 | 0.3548 | 0.0855 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 86857 | 60757 | 26100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.7408 | 0.5696 | 0.1712 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 156936 | 116176 | 40760 | [3] 3. Other Information - U.S. technology stocks led the decline in the U.S. stock market, and the 30 - year treasury bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France reached multi - year highs. Gold futures broke through $3600, hitting a record high [2]. - Trump stated that he would request the Supreme Court to make a "quick ruling" on the global tariff case. If he wins, the stock market will rise sharply; otherwise, it will experience a huge shock. Bessent predicted that the Supreme Court would support Trump's tariff policy but was also considering alternative plans [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View - The stock market declined today, with almost all industries falling, led by the national defense and military industry, which dropped 5.83%. This was mainly due to the landing of the military parade ceremony, leading to a correction of the previous optimistic pricing. The previous day's large divergence between bulls and bears and the change in sentiment were further verified today. The trading activity of funds decreased significantly, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to around 2.36 trillion yuan, and the basis of stock index futures declined. Overseas, concerns about the UK's fiscal issues intensified, indirectly affecting the sentiment of the US bond market, leading to an increase in US bond yields, a rise in the US dollar index, a depreciation of the RMB, and an increase in market risk aversion. In the short term, the stock market is under pressure due to both sentiment correction and external information [4]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The stock index shrank and declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.68%. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 51.0905 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties shrank and declined [2]. Important Information - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose to 5% for the first time since July. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War was held in Beijing [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Reduce long positions or adopt a covered call strategy [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.96 | 19.6242 | 0.0876 | 28.6469 | -1.1866 | | IH | -1.29 | 8.6105 | 0.5491 | 10.2538 | -0.7211 | | IC | -1.30 | 16.6146 | -0.669 | 24.487 | -0.9914 | | IM | -1.22 | 33.8297 | 0.0551 | 39.925 | -0.2021 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -1.16 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -0.65 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.18 | | Turnover of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23640.86 | | Turnover MoM (100 million yuan) | -5109.05 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the metal industry [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continues to rise, with external gold reaching new highs. The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, personnel adjustments, and bond market risks. The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term pattern is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 closed at $3599.5 per ounce, up 1.51%, hitting a record high; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%. The US August ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs were lower than expected, which was positive for precious metal prices [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. According to CME data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 9.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 90.5%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15366.48 tons [3] This Week's Focus - This week, there are many important data releases, including the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the "small non - farm" ADP employment data on Thursday, the JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, and the services PMI on Thursday. There are also several Fed officials' speeches and the release of the Fed's Beige Book [4] Nanhua's View - The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term London gold and silver are in a strong pattern. London gold can be expected to reach $3700, and London silver's next target is the 44 - 45 area. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as related spreads and ratios [6] Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest data, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [16][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Lists the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, stock indices, crude oil, copper, and US bond yields [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The old - season market is ending, and the new - season soybeans are gradually coming onto the market. There is a strong wait - and - see attitude, resulting in light spot trading. The double - festival stocking - driven consumption recovery will face pressure from the new - season supply, and prices are mainly under pressure. The short - term trend in the futures market remains unchanged [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positively, the bottoming - out of grass - roots grain reserves, the expected recovery of edible consumption demand, and the reduction of short - side positions drive the futures price rebound. Negatively, the expected increase in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, the decline in the auction transaction rate, and the continuous double - auctions per week will put pressure on prices [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean One Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, such as planting entities with high demand for selling new beans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 bean one futures contract at an entry range of 4000 - 4050 with a hedging ratio of 30% to lock in planting profits. Also, when the seller's bargaining power weakens during the centralized listing period, selling the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at an entry range of 50 - 60 with a hedging ratio of 30% can increase the grain - selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those with short spot positions worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management. Wait for the autumn price guidance to go long on A2603 and A2605 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Interpretations - **Core Contradictions**: The old - season market is closing, the new - season is starting, and there is a wait - and - see attitude. The auction maintains a double - auction rhythm per week, and the transaction rate has declined. The consumption recovery for double - festival stocking will face new - season supply pressure, and the futures market shows a short - term trend [3]. - **Positive Factors**: The bottoming - out of grass - roots grain reserves restricts price drops. The expected recovery of edible consumption demand in September and the reduction of short - side positions drive the futures price rebound [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The expected increase in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans will lead to a concentrated supply, putting continuous pressure on prices. The decline in the auction transaction rate and the continued double - auctions per week will impact the old - season price system, and the technical short - term trend of the 11 - contract remains unchanged [4]. 3.3 Bean One Futures Price | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 01 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean One 11 Closing Price | 3965 | 3970 | 5 | 0.13% | | Bean One 01 Closing Price | 3964 | 3963 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Bean One 03 Closing Price | 3963 | 3966 | 3 | 0.08% | | Bean One 05 Closing Price | 4008 | 4012 | 4 | 0.10% | | Bean One 07 Closing Price | 4010 | 4013 | 3 | 0.07% | | Bean One 09 Closing Price | 4111 | 4109 | - 2 | - 0.05% | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - New Capacity Rumor of Early Launch, Sharp Decline under Concentrated Short Allocation [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Price range forecast for ethylene glycol (monthly): 4200 - 4600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 11.30%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.9% [2] - Price range forecast for PX (monthly): 6500 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.41%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 24.8% [2] - Price range forecast for PTA (monthly): 4400 - 5300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.21%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 17.0% [2] - Price range forecast for bottle chips (monthly): 5800 - 6500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.55%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.4% [2] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with long spot exposure, short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range: 4450 - 4550), buy EG2510P4300 put options and sell EG2510C4400 call options (50% hedging ratio for put options, entry range: 10 - 20; 25 - 40 for call options) [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement standing inventory and intention to purchase based on orders, with short spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range: 4250 - 4350), sell EG2510P4300 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range: 30 - 50) [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Recently, ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers. Affected by the rumor of new device early launch, it became a concentrated short allocation and weakened. Although the pattern remains in a stocking trend, it is expected to have large upward elasticity when bullish drivers appear. Currently, it oscillates in the range of 4250 - 4500, and it is recommended to go long on dips or sell the 10 - contract 4250 put [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - This week's planned arrival is 11.01 tons, relatively small. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, and spot liquidity is expected to tighten further [5] - Due to the Houthi armed attack on a cruise ship in the northern Red Sea, oil prices rose in the afternoon, but the cost - end support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly and then fell again [5] Group 6: Bearish Factors - There is a market rumor that the new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong will be launched in September. If true, it will run at a low load in September and add an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons in October [6] - The terminal demand of weaving has declined recently, with limited new orders. Coupled with the continuous high temperature in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the loom operation rate has decreased slightly [6] - Due to poor production efficiency and order - receiving situation, bottle chip factories have cancelled their production increase plans, and the polyester operation rate in September is highly restricted [6] Group 7: Price and Spread Data - Various prices and spreads of polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [9][10] Group 8: Processing Fee and Profit Data - Processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, POY, DTY, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [10]