Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - term pure benzene inventory has shifted from accumulation to depletion, and new downstream production news has strengthened the expectation of improved future demand for pure benzene, which is in a transition from weak reality to strong expectation. In contrast, styrene has seen significant port inventory accumulation, with downstream industrial giants actively selling near - term and buying far - term contracts. The near - term spot liquidity has recovered, and the basis in late July has rapidly weakened. The styrene supply - demand pattern has weakened due to the off - season of terminal demand, with only rigid demand support from 3S for styrene. However, recently, influenced by old device inspections and anti - involution macro trends, the overall sentiment of commodities has been positive, and the pure benzene and styrene futures have followed the strong performance of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is 5,800 - 6,400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 7,000 - 7,600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can short styrene futures (EB2509, sell, 25%, entry range: 7,450 - 7,500 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2509C7600, sell, 50%, entry range: 120 - 150 yuan) to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, and lock in the spot selling price if styrene prices rise [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2509, buy, 50%, entry range: 7,250 - 7,300 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (EB2509P7300, sell, 75%, entry range: 90 - 120 yuan) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene prices fall [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pure Benzene**: The near - term inventory has changed from accumulation to depletion, and downstream new production news has strengthened the expectation of future demand improvement. There are also positive factors such as production reduction due to equipment problems at Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical [4][5][7]. - **Styrene**: The port has seen significant inventory accumulation, downstream industrial giants are actively selling near - term and buying far - term contracts, and the near - term spot liquidity has recovered. The basis in late July has rapidly weakened. It is the off - season of terminal demand, with only rigid demand support from 3S, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened. As of July 21, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 15.07 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons (+8.81%) from the previous period [4][8]. 3.3 Market Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of pure benzene and styrene has changed. For example, the basis of East China - BZ03 for pure benzene on July 22 was - 258, a decrease of 27 from July 21; the basis of East China - EB07 for styrene on July 22 was 98, a decrease of 162 from July 21 [9]. - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene and related products have changed. For example, BZ2603 of pure benzene increased by 37 yuan/ton from July 21 to July 22, and EB2507 of styrene increased by 87 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Spread Changes**: The spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot decreased by 60 yuan/ton from July 21 to July 22 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market strengthened significantly in the afternoon due to the influence of coking coal prices. From a macro - perspective, positive policy signals led to a bullish sentiment. However, the PP market still faces upward pressure. On the supply side, three sets of equipment were put into operation from June to July, resulting in high PP production despite high maintenance levels. On the demand side, although the trading atmosphere improved this week, it is still in the off - season with limited substantial demand growth. Therefore, PP will face significant resistance during the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand and the progress of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 7.71%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over three years is 3.6% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7250 - 7300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and offset production costs; sell PP2509C7300 call options with a 50% ratio at 50 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% ratio at 30 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal prices and positive macro - policies. But for PP, there is still supply pressure due to new equipment put into operation from June to July, and demand is in the off - season with limited growth [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - The market is driven up by macro - sentiment. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Two sets of equipment in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple sets of equipment will be put into operation from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. The PDH profit has recovered, and marginal equipment is gradually resuming operation [6]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The main - contract basis of polypropylene was - 78 yuan/ton on July 22, 2025, a daily change of - 57 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 153 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased compared to the previous day and week [7][9]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China remained unchanged, while those in East and South China increased slightly. Regional spreads also showed corresponding changes [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between non - standard and standard products showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. Different PP production methods had different profit changes [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino - US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the long - term supply - demand gap is the key for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong long - term bullish sentiment under weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums supporting long - term contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors involve supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to monitor the departure of long - position funds in the near - term contracts for futures - spot convergence, expected soybean arrivals with a gap after December, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed meal issue and potential Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 14.1%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1642 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2531 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders**: With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, they are advised to short 25% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Feed Mills**: With low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, they are recommended to buy 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - **Oil Mills**: Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they should short 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover costs [3]. 3.2 Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of soybean meal 01, 05, and 09 are 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with daily increases of 17, 8, and 17, and daily growth rates of 0.55%, 0.29%, and 0.55% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of rapeseed meal 01, 05, and 09 are 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with daily increases of 22, 11, and 9, and daily growth rates of 0.91%, 0.46%, and 0.33% [7][9]. - **Others**: CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1026.75 with no change, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1714, down 0.0071 or 0.1% [9]. 3.3 Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 344 (up 9), M05 - 09 is - 326 (down 9), M09 - 01 is - 18 (unchanged). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2900 (unchanged), and the basis is - 186 (down 17) [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 60 (up 11), RM05 - 09 is - 359 (up 2), RM09 - 01 is 299 (down 13). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2590 (down 84), and the basis is - 137 (down 89) [10]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spot spread is 310 (unchanged), and the futures spread is 350 (up 8) [10]. 3.4 Import Costs and Pressing Profits - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4770.043 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3927.66 yuan/ton (down 29.05) [11]. - **Profits**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 853.473 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 133.4212 yuan/ton (down 20.3779), the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 301 yuan/ton (down 4), and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 292 yuan/ton (down 8) [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase of the BDI comprehensive freight index and sub - vessel type freight indices narrowed during the week, with the BPI freight index declining. The decrease in soybean shipment volume and a significant increase in soybean meal shipment volume were observed. In the shipment of industrial products, the demand for shipping bauxite and other dry goods was relatively large, which boosted the demand for Capesize and Handysize vessels and supported the rise of the BCI and BHSI freight indices [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Spot Index Review 1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On July 21, compared with the previous week, the increase of the BDI comprehensive freight index narrowed, and the BPI freight index declined. Specifically, the BDI comprehensive freight index closed at 2016 points, up 13.07% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 2981 points, up 25.94% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1915 points, down 1.74% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1346 points, up 8.2% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 675 points, up 4.01% week - on - week [4]. 1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On July 21, the FDI index declined slightly across the board, and the increase of freight rates on most routes in the FDI rent index narrowed. The FDI comprehensive freight index closed at 1279.38 points, down 0.07% month - on - month; the FDI rent index closed at 1549.66 points, down 0.06% month - on - month. Among them, the Capesize vessel rent index closed at 1457.77 points, down 0.7% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rent index closed at 1715.71 points, up 0.45% month - on - month; the Supramax vessel rent index closed at 1506.13 points, up 0.18% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1099.2 points, down 0.07% month - on - month [8]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day - On July 22, among the major agricultural product sending countries, Brazil used 39 vessels for shipment, Russia used 8 vessels, Argentina used 20 vessels, and Australia used 1 vessel. Among the major industrial product sending countries, Australia used 55 vessels, Guinea used 26 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 23 vessels, South Africa used 21 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 15 vessels [16][17]. 2.2 Shipment Volume and Vessel - Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 19 vessels were used for corn shipment, 9 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 7 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 102 vessels were used for coal, 66 for iron ore, and 17 for other dry goods. By vessel type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post - Panamax vessels (35), followed by Supramax vessels (13) and Handysize vessels (11). The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize vessels (81), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (56) and Supramax vessels (40) [18]. 3. Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - During the week, the number of vessels at ports in Indonesia and South Africa increased month - on - month. From July 1 to July 21, after adjustment, "three ports decreased, and two ports increased." The number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports decreased significantly by 37 month - on - month, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 13 month - on - month; the number of vessels at one South African port and six Indonesian ports increased by 1/2 month - on - month; the number of vessels at five Brazilian ports decreased by 4 month - on - month [18][19]. 4. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 21, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3956.71 yuan per ton. On July 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $22,732 per day, and on July 21, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $116.45 per thousand tons. On July 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,636 per day, and on July 21, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 530.54 yuan per ton. On July 18, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 662.4 points, and on July 21, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114 per cubic meter [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures showed an overall oscillatory downward trend. Affected by commodity sentiment, there was a callback during the session, followed by a further decline. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts dropped. The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and slightly decline, but attention should be paid to sudden factors such as the actions of other shipping companies and changes in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, as well as the possibility of a rebound when the futures price reaches a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendation - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes, and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling the EC2510 contract is 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended entry range for buying the EC2510 contract is 1350 - 1450 [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The EC2510 contract saw an increase of 1029 long positions to 26,261 and an increase of 845 short positions to 31,963. The trading volume decreased by 2955 lots to 79,201 lots (bilateral). The futures price is expected to decline due to the lack of mainstream shipping companies following Maersk's PSS collection and Maersk's lower cabin quotes in the first week of August [2]. - **Spot Market**: Maersk's cabin quotes for the European line in the new week decreased significantly compared to the previous week, while Evergreen's spot cabin quotes for the European line in mid - early August showed a slight increase [3][7]. - **Geopolitical Factor**: The joint statement by 25 countries including the UK and France to promote the end of the Gaza war is beneficial for the decline of geopolitical risks, which also contributes to the decline of the futures price [2][3]. 3.3 Data Monitoring - **EC Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 108.60 points, with a daily decrease of 26.00 points and a weekly decrease of 286.14 points; the basis of EC2510 was 807.80 points, with a daily increase of 20.30 points and a weekly decrease of 173.44 points [4]. - **EC Price and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2291.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.15% and a weekly increase of 13.06%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1592.7 points, with a daily decrease of 1.26% and a weekly increase of 10.55% [5]. - **Global Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European line decreased by 0.89% to 2400.5 points; the SCFIS for the US West line increased by 2.78% to 1301.81 points; the SCFI for the European line decreased by 0.95% to 2079 dollars/TEU; the SCFI for the US West line decreased by 2.37% to 2142 dollars/FEU [8]. - **Container Shipping Spot Quotes**: On July 31, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $10 to $1895, and the 40GP total quote increased by $20 to $3190. On August 7, the 20GP opening quote decreased by $105 to $1740, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $170 to $2900. In mid - early August, Evergreen's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $100 to $2455, and the 40GP total quote increased by $200 to $3760 [7]. - **Global Major Port Waiting Time**: On July 21, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port increased by 0.453 days to 0.743 days; at Shanghai Port, it increased by 0.316 days to 1.754 days; at Yantian Port, it decreased by 0.299 days to 0.351 days; at Singapore Port, it increased by 0.958 days to 1.833 days; at Jakarta Port, it increased by 0.237 days to 1.782 days; at Long Beach Port, it decreased by 0.247 days to 1.709 days; at Savannah Port, it increased by 0.032 days to 1.586 days [15]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal Port Anchorage**: On July 21, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.9 knots, an increase of 0.127 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.856 knots, an increase of 0.09 knots; the average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.134 knots, an increase of 0.132 knots. The number of ships waiting in the Suez Canal port anchorage increased by 9 to 30 [23][24].

国债期货日报 2025年7月22日 大宗商品大幅反弹 观点：交易盘暂时观望 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘偏强窄幅震荡，盘中跳水翻绿，随着风险资产走强价格持续下跌，午后二次跳水，尾盘明显收 跌。结构上短端偏强，TS09下跌0.008。10Y活跃券250011当日上行1.2bp，接近1.69%。流动性进一步改 善，资金利率回到1.3%的关键水平，开盘前隔夜匿名1.3%超过1400亿大额，DR001同样下行回到1.3%附 近。 日内消息： 1.俄罗斯总统新闻秘书、克宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯总统普京将于9月访华，出席中国人民抗日战争暨 世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动，俄方正为此次访华行程做筹备。 行情研判： 当前风险资产强势，不光是权益市场内部轮动接力，同样体现在风险资产之间的先后上涨提供支撑，风险偏 好整体强势，加上国债期货价格下跌破位，交易盘短期建议暂时止损观望，等待重要会议后反内卷政策细节 全部落地。 TS主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS净基差：主连 TS基差：主连 10/31 12/3 ...

1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is between 820 and 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2] - For inventory management, when log import volume is high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses and lock in profits [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The main contract closed at 838 (-4), with a reduction of 2,264 lots and a continuous 3 - day net capital outflow [3] - After the stock market's coal sector soared due to rumors of coal mine production inspections, the log market showed a relatively independent trend. The current log price is slightly overvalued. If the CFR import price rises, the valuation will be corrected; if it falls, the overvaluation will intensify, creating a good short - hedging opportunity [3] 3. Spot and Basis - On July 22, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The calculated basis (after conversion) values varied, with some positive and some negative [5][8] 4. Data Overview Supply - The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] Inventory - As of July 18, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.29 million m³, an increase of 70,000 m³ from the previous period and a 4.1% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,932,000 m³, an increase of 38,000 m³ from the previous period and a 6.0% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,107,569 m³, a decrease of 7,431 m³ from the previous period but a 33.9% increase year - on - year [9] Demand - As of July 18, 2025, the average daily log port outbound volume was 62,400 m³, an increase of 3,600 m³ from the previous period and a 23.3% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 33,600 m³, a decrease of 1,700 m³ from the previous period but a 31.8% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, an increase of 4,700 m³ from the previous period and a 32.6% increase year - on - year [9] Profit - As of July 25, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 83 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous period, and the spruce import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9] 5. Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Traders are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost is rising, and the overall commodity sentiment is warming up [7] Bearish Factors - The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract is suppressing the spot price, and the foreign merchant shipping volume is continuously increasing [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. There is a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a positive cycle of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost curve is flattening, driving the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to decline as technological upgrades are completed and production volume is concentratedly released [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disturbances, and the trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and cost reduction due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,600 yuan (2.24%) and a weekly increase of 6,220 yuan (9.33%). The trading volume is 1,118,226 lots, with a daily increase of 270,076 lots (31.84%) and a weekly increase of 354,198 lots (46.36%). The open interest is 411,638 lots, with a daily increase of 30,453 lots (7.99%) and a weekly increase of 69,492 lots (20.31%) [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: LC08 - 11 is 1,000 yuan, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 5.66%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (31.58%); LC09 - 11 is 1,080 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 520 yuan (93%); LC11 - 12 is 20 yuan, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan (- 67%) and a weekly decrease of 360 yuan (- 106%) [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Price**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,590 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 45 yuan (2.91%) and a weekly increase of 140 yuan (9.66%); the average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,445 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 145 yuan (2.74%) and a weekly increase of 470 yuan (9.45%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Price**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,100 yuan (1.66%) and a weekly increase of 4,150 yuan (6.56%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,100 yuan (1.62%) and a weekly increase of 4,200 yuan (6.47%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 32,340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 265 yuan (0.83%); the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 28,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan (0.88%) [22][23]. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis Data**: The comprehensive basis quote of four materials for LC2507 is - 212.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 287.5 yuan [26]. - **Warrant Data**: The total number of warrants is 9,969, a decrease of 270 from the previous day. For example, the number of warrants at Wugang Wuxi decreased from 20 to 0, and at Waiyun Longquanyi decreased from 1,530 to 1,260 [31]. Cost and Profit No specific numerical summaries are provided in the text for cost and profit, only the presentation of relevant charts, including the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%), the production profit from purchased lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with a strong trend, but the terminal finished product inventory pressure is accumulating in the off - season, which may limit the upside space of cotton prices. The far - month has a high - yield expectation, and the change of Sino - US tariffs after August 1st needs attention [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0629 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0675 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory, it is recommended to sell CF2509 futures at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509C14400 call options at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. - For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy CF2509 futures at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509P13600 put options at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. Core Contradictions - Domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing and low inventory in the short - term, but the terminal inventory pressure and far - month high - yield expectation may limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and Sino - US tariffs [4]. 利多解读 - Cotton imports have decreased significantly this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. The national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons as of July 15, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year [5]. - Post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. 利空解读 - Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, and the terminal sales are not smooth, with the inventory of grey cloth accumulating [6]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [6]. Futures and Price Index - Cotton 01 closed at 14,030, up 40 (0.29%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,990, up 45 (0.32%); Cotton 09 closed at 14,225, up 40 (0.28%); Yarn 01 closed at 20,235, up 20 (0.1%); Yarn 05 closed at 20,190, unchanged; Yarn 09 closed at 20,430, up 40 (0.2%) [7][8]. - The cotton basis is 1,324, down 80; Cotton 01 - 05 is 40, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 is - 235, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 is 195, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread is 6,215, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1,797, up 104; The domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 444, unchanged [9]. - CCI 3128B is 15,549, down 40 (- 0.26%); CCI 2227B is 13,638, down 37 (- 0.27%); CCI 2129B is 15,866, down 28 (- 0.18%); FCI Index S is 13,886, down 99 (- 0.71%); FCI Index M is 13,693, down 99 (- 0.72%); FCI Index L is 13,432, down 99 (- 0.73%) [10].

供给侧改革再临，债市是否重蹈覆辙？ 徐晨曦（投资咨询资格证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月22日 自7月初中央财经委会议提出"治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"以来，市场炒作"供给侧改 革"的热度再起，股市与商品相关板块反应积极，而7月18日工信部在新闻发布会上宣布十大重点行业淘汰落 后产能的消息将行情推向了新的高度。这不禁令人想起2016-2017年供给侧改革给工业品带来的巨大牛市，而 与此同时10年国债在2.6%-3.0%区间震荡了三个季度后爆发债灾难，此后步入熊市。如今供给侧改革再度来 临，债市是否会重蹈覆辙？ 图1.国债收益率与南华工业品指数 数据来源：Wind、南华研究 从基本面来看，上一轮供给侧改革开启之时，PPI已经历了四年多的负增长，产能过剩及其明显，亟需 去产能、去库存来扭转局面。彼时居民与地方政府资产负债表尚无太大问题，搭配供给侧改革，政策方面启 动了货币化棚改，迅速推升了房地产需求，房地产开工面积在2016年一季度一举转正，并在此后两年保持了 较高增速。供给缩减加上需求扩张促使PPI自2016年三季度开始转正，摆脱了通缩态 ...