Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term, and long - position holders can continue to hold [3]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices are likely to oscillate slightly downward [5]. - Copper prices may be slightly stronger in the short term but face potential risks in the medium term [6]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while alumina is expected to be strong, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate at a high level [8][9][10]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate widely, with a long - term downward trend [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to have upward momentum due to macro - level factors [15]. - Tin prices are recommended for inventory hedging [16]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly, and enterprises are advised to lock in future production plans [18]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be in an oscillating and slightly stronger state, while polysilicon is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [20]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback [25]. - Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term, but there may be an over - rise and subsequent correction [26]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and long - term risks to steel mill profits should be noted [29]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be optimistic in the short term, but the implementation of policies needs to be monitored [32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and slightly weak pattern, and there is a risk of a downward turn [35]. - PX - PTA is expected to remain strong in the short term [38]. - Methanol is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [40]. - PP is expected to face resistance in the upward trend, and the recovery of downstream demand and policy implementation need to be focused on [43]. - PE is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and this pattern is expected to continue [45]. - PVC is recommended to avoid risks and reduce short positions [47]. - Pure benzene is expected to be strong in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [48]. - Styrene's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - selling should be cautious [49]. - Fuel oil can be considered for trading the FU09 - 01 spread [51]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [51]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the peak season is expected in the long term [52]. - Urea's 09 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Soda ash is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and glass is expected to be strong, but the impact of policies needs to be noted [55][56]. - Logs can be considered for a bullish covered strategy [58]. - Pulp is recommended to cautiously chase long positions if the pressure level is effectively broken [61]. - For live pigs, a short - selling approach at high prices is recommended [62]. - For oilseeds, a long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended [64]. - Old - crop corn prices are expected to be stable and oscillate narrowly [65]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upper space may be limited [67]. - Sugar prices face upward pressure in the short term [69]. - Apples are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term [70]. - Red dates are expected to oscillate slightly in the short term [71]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1768 at 16:30 yesterday, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1707 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1522, down 24 basis points [1]. - **Important Information**: Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that interest rates should be lowered if inflation data is low [1]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar index is likely to continue its weak trend, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [1]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was strong yesterday, with small and medium - cap stock indices performing better. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 1289.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary believes that the Fed's policy needs to be re - examined, and trade negotiations will prioritize quality [3]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index rose with increasing volume, and is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Review**: The prices of shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated upward in the morning and fell in the afternoon [3]. - **Spot Market**: The quotes of Maersk and CMA CGM showed different trends, with CMA CGM's quotes falling [4]. - **Important Information**: The Israeli military expanded its military operations in Gaza [4]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in CMA CGM's quotes brought negative sentiment, and the futures prices are likely to oscillate slightly downward [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper index rose significantly on Monday. The anti - involution policy affected the non - ferrous metal sector, and copper prices may be slightly stronger in the short term but face risks in the medium term [6]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: Macro - level factors boosted sentiment, and low inventory supported prices. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - **Alumina**: The decline in warehouse receipts and macro - policies led to strong sentiment, and alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High scrap aluminum prices supported costs, but demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Zinc**: The macro "anti - involution" sentiment drove prices up, but the supply was gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand was weak. Zinc is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The prices were affected by macro - level and supply - side factors. The market is expected to have upward momentum [13][15]. - **Tin**: The rise in tin prices was due to the impact of the anti - involution policy on the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended for inventory hedging [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures prices oscillated strongly. The reduction in warehouse receipts and strong macro - sentiment supported prices. Enterprises are advised to lock in future production plans [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand provided some support, but high inventory limited the upward space. It is expected to be in an oscillating and slightly stronger state [20]. - **Polysilicon**: The macro - sentiment was strong, but there was a risk of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lead**: The macro "anti - involution" policy drove prices up. Supply was tight, and demand was weak. Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rose to a new high. The policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River strengthened the market's expectations of supply contraction and demand expansion [23][25]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices were strong. The increase in iron ore production and the tight supply - demand balance supported prices, but there was a risk of over - rise [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second round of price increases was initiated. The macro - environment was favorable, but there were potential risks to steel mill profits in the long term [28][29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The profit of ferroalloys was repaired, and the demand was supported by iron ore production. The prices are expected to be optimistic in the short term, but the implementation of policies needs to be monitored [30][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The prices decreased slightly, with shrinking trading volume. The market was in an oscillating and slightly weak pattern, and there was a risk of a downward turn [33][35]. - **PTA - PX**: The fundamentals had limited driving force, and the prices were expected to be strong in the short term due to the anti - involution policy [36][38]. - **Methanol**: The inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by the anti - involution policy. A wait - and - see approach was recommended [39][40]. - **PP**: The prices rose due to macro - level factors, but the supply pressure was high, and demand was in the off - season. The upward trend may face resistance [41][43]. - **PE**: The market was in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and this pattern is expected to continue [44][45]. - **PVC**: The anti - involution sentiment drove prices up, but the fundamentals were poor. It is recommended to avoid risks and reduce short positions [45][47]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand showed different trends, and the prices were expected to be strong in the short term [48]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand pattern weakened, and short - selling should be cautious [49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply was tight, and demand was strong. The FU09 - 01 spread can be considered [50][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply decreased, and demand improved slightly. A wait - and - see approach was recommended [51]. - **Asphalt**: The supply increased slightly more than expected, and demand was in the off - season. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the peak season is expected in the long term [51][52]. - **Urea**: The anti - involution policy supported prices. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash**: The supply was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and demand was weak. The market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [55]. - **Glass**: The anti - involution expectation drove prices up, and the market was in a weak balance [56]. Others - **Logs**: The valuation was repaired, and the prices are expected to be strong. A bullish covered strategy can be considered [57][58]. - **Pulp**: The demand from the downstream paper industry was weak, and the supply was stable. Pulp prices are recommended to cautiously chase long positions if the pressure level is effectively broken [59][61]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The futures prices rose, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions. A short - selling approach at high prices is recommended [62]. - **Oilseeds**: The prices of external and internal markets showed different trends. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended [63][64]. - **Corn and Starch**: The corn prices were stable, and the starch inventory decreased. Old - crop corn prices are expected to be stable and oscillate narrowly [65]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures prices fell, and the domestic cotton prices were supported by low inventory but faced pressure from weak demand. The prices are expected to be strong in the short term but with limited upward space [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar prices faced pressure. Sugar prices are expected to face upward pressure in the short term [69]. - **Apples**: The futures prices rose slightly, and the spot prices were stable. The prices are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term [70]. - **Red Dates**: The second - crop fruit setting was better than expected, and the third - crop was in a critical period. The prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short term [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong performance with a GDP growth of 5.3%, but structural contradictions were prominent. Some industries had over - capacity and profit pressure, while others had supply shortages but low gross margins. The "anti - involution" policy aimed to address these issues by eliminating backward production capacity, optimizing the supply structure, and promoting the development of new productive forces, with a focus on the coordinated optimization of the entire industrial chain [2][3]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" policy expectations dominated the commodity market, leading to emotional price increases in black (steel), glass, soda ash and other varieties. In the medium - term, it was necessary to observe the matching degree between policy implementation and downstream demand, and be vigilant against price corrections due to "more significant reduction in demand than supply". In the long - term, only through the coordinated optimization of the entire industrial chain could prices achieve sustainable and healthy growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Chapters 1. "Anti - involution" Policy Proposal 1.1 Macro Background - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth was strong, with a second - quarter year - on - year growth of 5.2% and a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half, easing the growth pressure in the second half. However, from the perspective of the "troika", economic support was somewhat special. Consumption growth relied on the "trade - in" policy, investment was mainly supported by infrastructure investment, and exports were strong due to the "rush to export" and "rush to re - export" effects in the first half. - In the second half, economic operation still faced pressures. Residents' demand was weak, and the gap between macro - data and micro - perception widened. Enterprise profit growth was still in the negative range, and over - capacity in some industries restricted their healthy development [7]. 1.2 "Anti - involution" Policy Introduction - On the 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. Since July, the Nanhua Commodity Index has rebounded, with significant increases in sub - sector indices. This "anti - involution" industrial policy adjustment was different from the 2016 "supply - side reform" and had a more profound impact on the domestic economy and the commodity market [10][11]. 2. Analysis of Industrial "Involution" Characteristics 2.1 Supply Perspective - In terms of industrial added - value, except for the non - metallic mineral products industry in raw material manufacturing, the growth rates of industries such as food manufacturing, electrical machinery, automobile manufacturing, and electronic communication were not low compared to the overall industrial level. However, their capacity utilization rates were at historical lows, indicating a need for policy - driven elimination of over - capacity [16]. - Regarding capacity utilization, the capacity utilization rates of some mid - stream manufacturing and downstream consumption industries were at historical lows. Industries such as food manufacturing, electrical machinery, automobile manufacturing, and non - metallic minerals had capacity utilization rates below the 10th percentile of historical levels, and the electronic communication industry was at the 20th percentile. These industries showed no significant improvement in 2025 [17]. - Some industries with low capacity utilization but relatively high production growth were not all backward production capacity. Industries such as electrical machinery, automobile manufacturing, and electronic communication were closely related to new productive forces. The decline in capacity utilization was due to excessive investment in the short - term, resulting in temporary over - capacity [21]. 2.2 Demand Perspective - China's manufacturing investment growth rate has gone through stages of "high - speed growth - stable operation - continuous decline - intensified fluctuations". The industry has experienced both the expansion stage driven by factors such as the "WTO dividend" and the challenges of reduced profits, capital outflow, and capacity transfer due to intensified trade frictions [22]. - In 2020, the growth rates of manufacturing fixed - asset investment and private manufacturing fixed - asset investment rebounded, mainly due to the accelerated investment in high - tech industries. The profitability of industrial enterprises improved, with 61% of industries seeing profit growth or narrowing declines. However, from 2020 - 2022, most industries declined, and the real estate industry's contribution to GDP turned negative [23][26]. 2.3 Price Perspective - Excessive supply in the short - term could solve the supply - demand contradiction, but when demand declined, profit reduction would be transmitted from downstream to upstream industries, affecting the entire industry. - In 2025, the profit pressure index of industrial enterprises improved. The profit pressure indices of the food and chemical industries improved, while those of the black metallurgy, textile, and paper industries declined. Industries such as general equipment, special equipment, and automobile manufacturing also faced increased cost pressure and thinner profits [31]. 3. Analysis of the Impact of "Anti - involution" on Commodities 3.1 Impact on the Steel Market - The steel industry has over - capacity, but the feasibility of eliminating backward production capacity is low as much of the current capacity has been optimized. - The impact of "anti - involution" on the steel market has different logics. If it is implemented only in downstream industries, it may reduce steel demand; if it is implemented only in the steel industry, it may boost steel prices in the short - term but needs to consider downstream acceptance; if it is implemented simultaneously in the steel and downstream industries, the impact depends on the matching of supply and demand reduction [38][40][41]. - In the short - term, market sentiment is high, and steel demand shows a "not - so - off - season" feature. In the long - term, the implementation and effect of the policy are unclear, and demand support is crucial for price sustainability [42][43]. 3.2 Impact on the "One Glass and Two Alkalis" Market - **Glass Market**: After a round of supply clearance in the second half of last year, the daily melting capacity of glass in the first half of 2025 was around 158,000 tons. The market was in a weak balance or weak surplus, with relatively high upstream inventories. If the "capacity reduction" policy is implemented and combined with mid - and downstream replenishment, glass prices may have high elasticity. In the short - term, market sentiment is driving price increases [45][51]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The soda ash market is in a long - term surplus situation, with high upstream and mid - stream inventories. Although the "anti - involution" and capacity - elimination expectations are rising, the impact is limited in the long - term due to new capacity investments and weakening demand. In the short - term, the market is driven by sentiment [52][53]. - **Caustic Soda Market**: Caustic soda is in a state of strong current reality but weak long - term expectations. The current spot is strong, but new capacity and maintenance restarts may increase supply pressure in the future. The market is waiting for clearer policy guidance [55][56]. 3.3 Impact on the Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Mining End**: The zinc ore market is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, while the lead market has cost support from tight supply of recycled lead. - **Smelting End**: Zinc and aluminum have optimized their production capacities. The overall开工率 of refined zinc has been around 90%, and the production capacity of refined zinc in China is estimated to be about 7.3 million tons. The production capacity of lead is increasing, with a significant difference in capacity utilization between primary lead and recycled lead. The electrolytic aluminum industry is in a tight balance, and the alumina industry has over - capacity [58][61][62]. - Overall, the "anti - involution" policy may attract funds and have a greater impact on non - ferrous metal prices. The prices of copper and aluminum may be slightly stronger, and alumina may have its own market due to factors such as tight spot supply and potential soft - squeeze risks [65]. 3.4 Impact on the Olefin Industry Chain - The average operating rate of ethylene and its downstream products has declined significantly in the past decade, and the olefin industry chain needs to eliminate old production capacity. However, the proportion of old devices in the olefin industry chain is not large, and most of them are in large enterprises or profitable coal - chemical enterprises. The actual impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the olefin industry chain is limited, and the current impact on the chemical product market is mainly sentiment - driven [66][67].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. For short - term, the resistance levels of London gold are raised to 3400, 3450, and 3500, with support at 3375; London silver has support around 38.4 and resistance in the 39 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rose strongly. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield favored the valuation of precious metals. The surrounding US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil fluctuated, while the South China Non - ferrous Metals rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3410.3 per ounce, up 1.55%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $39.24 per ounce, up 2.02%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 0.82%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9271 yuan per kilogram, up 0.93%. The approaching August 1 tariff deadline and slow US trade negotiation progress increased market risk - aversion sentiment in late July, which was beneficial to precious metals. The government's continuous intervention in the Fed may lead to a shift from hawkish to dovish under the Fed's independence principle, also favoring precious metals. Additionally, Japan's ruling coalition suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election [1]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.8%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 947.06 tons daily; the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 347.58 tons to 15005.79 tons daily, reaching the highest level since February 2023. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.6 tons to 1204.5 tons daily; as of the week ending July 11, SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons weekly [2]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. Pay attention to the preliminary values of the US July S&P manufacturing and services PMIs and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. In terms of events, at 20:30 on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting. At 01:00 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat session at a large - bank capital framework meeting hosted by the Fed. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference by ECB President Lagarde. During the week, US President Trump will give a speech at an event named "Winning the AI Race" [3]. 4. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan or 0.6%; SGX gold TD is at 777 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan or 0.47%; CME gold main contract is at $3410.3 per ounce, up $54.8 or 1.63%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 9271 yuan per kilogram, down 2 yuan or - 0.02%; SGX silver TD is at 9226 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan or 0.16%; CME silver main contract is at $39.24 per ounce, up $0.815 or 2.12%. SHFE - TD gold is at 4.7 yuan per gram, up 1.05 yuan or 28.77%; SHFE - TD silver is at 45 yuan per kilogram, down 17 yuan or 44.19%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 86.9088, down 0.4172 or - 0.48% [5]. 5. Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory is 28857 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1156.8058 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings are 211239 lots, up 8952 lots or 4.43%; SPDR gold holdings are 947.06 tons, up 3.43 tons or 0.36%. SHFE silver inventory is 1204.466 tons, down 6.61 tons or - 0.55%; CME silver inventory is 15478.5188 tons, up 12.4918 tons or 0.08%; SGX silver inventory is 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings are 467534 lots, down 12142 lots or - 2.53%; SLV silver holdings are 15005.786237 tons, up 347.575 tons or 2.37% [13]. 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 97.8575, down 0.6137 or - 0.62%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1714, down 0.0071 or - 0.1%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44342.19 points, down 142.3 points or - 0.32%; WTI crude oil spot is $67.34 per barrel, down $0.2 or - 0.3%; LmeS copper 03 is $9794.5 per ton, up $116.5 or 1.2%; the 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.44%, down 0.03 or - 0.67%; the 10Y US real interest rate is 1.98, down 0.05 or - 2.46%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.56, unchanged [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.70%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 23.0% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Nanhua's View on Copper Price Trends - Anti - involution affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise. The increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [6]. 3.5 Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton (up 1,330 yuan, 1.7%), the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME copper 3M is 9,794.5 US dollars/ton (up 116.5 US dollars, 1.2%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (down 0.03, - 0.37%) [7]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of various copper spots have increased. For example, Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,555 yuan/ton (up 895 yuan, 1.14%), and the price increases of other spots range from 0.71% to 1.33%. The spot premiums have also increased, with the increase ranging from 9.09% to 35.29% [10]. 3.6 Copper Scrap Spread and Warehouse Receipts - **Scrap Spread**: The current scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton (up 513.08 yuan, 53.15%), and the reasonable scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton (up 10.45 yuan, 0.7%) [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and international copper warehouse receipts have decreased. For example, the total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 38,239 tons (down 3,900 tons, - 9.26%), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons (down 2,708 tons, - 36.72%) [16]. 3.7 Copper Inventory Data - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons (down 100 tons, - 0.08%), with different changes in different regions. The registered warehouse receipts are 108,100 tons (down 2,850 tons, - 2.57%), and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 14,075 tons (up 2,875 tons, 25.67%) [18]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons (up 8,633 tons, 3.69%) [21]. 3.8 Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit is - 127.28 yuan/ton (down 16.74 yuan, - 11.62%), and the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have risen passively, and there is still some pressure above [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.51%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.4% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4] 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 South China's View - The rise of tin prices on Monday was mainly due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals of tin itself have not changed. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Burmese ore and no sign of further improvement in tin downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7] 3.4 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 267,470 yuan/ton, also with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 267,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME Tin 3M is 33,355 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars or 0.86%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, up 0.04 or 0.51% [8][9] 3.4.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan or 0.26%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 16.67%. The 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.47%. The 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.46%. The 60A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 172,250 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.58%. The 63A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 179,750 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.55%. The lead - free solder is 271,250 yuan/ton, down 1500 yuan or - 0.55% [16][17] 3.5 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, down 684.78 yuan or 4.41%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [19] 3.6 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6817 tons, up 104 tons or 1.55%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4524 tons, up 122 tons or 2.77%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1412 tons, down 8 tons or - 0.56%. The total LME tin inventory is 1935 tons, down 100 tons or - 4.91% [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly influenced by macro - level sentiment. On the fundamentals, the arrival inventory from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore. The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased due to weak downstream demand. The intraday transaction price of nickel iron had a certain correction, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August moved up. Attention should be paid to the impact of the subsequent decreasing trend of nickel iron supply. Stainless steel was also strong due to the speech of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with large - scale factories still having a sentiment of production reduction, and spot prices generally rising. The new energy chain still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Macro - level attention should be paid to the follow - up of the document issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategies include: when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [2] - Procurement management strategies include: when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, sell put options (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday strength of Shanghai nickel is affected by macro - level sentiment. The increase in the arrival inventory from the Philippines weakens the support of nickel ore, and the decrease in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price is due to weak downstream demand. The transaction price of nickel iron has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the supply trend. Stainless steel is strong due to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's speech, and the new energy chain maintains a production - based - on - sales situation [3] 3.利多 and 利空 Analysis - Positive factors include the continuous ban on cobalt mines in the Congo, Indonesia's plan to revise the HPM formula, the shortening of the nickel ore quota license period in Indonesia, the potential impact of the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4] - Negative factors include that stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [4] 4. Market Data - Nickel disk daily data: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts increased by 2%, 1.76%, 1.77%, and 1.77% respectively compared with the previous day. The LME nickel 3M increased by 1.83%. The trading volume increased by 42.94%, the open interest decreased by 17.01%, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2.87%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 66.9% [5] - Stainless steel disk daily data: The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, and continuous - two contracts increased by 1%, 1.41%, and 1.37% respectively compared with the previous day, while the continuous - three contract decreased by 0.08%. The trading volume increased by 57.32%, the open interest increased by 13.93%, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 6.31%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 1.47% [6] - Nickel industry inventory data: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,165 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 tons [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Today, the stock indices closed higher collectively, with small and medium - cap indices performing strongly, and the CSI 500 index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets continued to expand. Affected by the upcoming release of stable - growth work plans for multiple key industries announced at the MIIT press conference after Friday's market close and the news of the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, related sectors such as cement building materials, steel, and water conservancy led the gains. There are no obvious negative news currently, and after excluding the impact of contract expiration and new contract listing, the overall change in the basis of stock index futures is not significant. Overall, today's stock indices rose in both price and volume, and it is expected that the short - term upward trend will continue. Long - position holders can continue to hold their positions [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Today, the stock indices showed a strong performance, with small and medium - cap indices performing even better. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.8937 billion yuan. In the futures market, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with expanding volume [2]. Important Information - The MIIT stated that it will strengthen industry governance with a market - oriented mindset and legal concepts, and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Work plans for stable growth in key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals are about to be released, as well as digital transformation plans for industries like automobiles, textiles, light industry, food, and medicine. A special action will be carried out to solve the problem of overdue payments to small and medium - sized enterprises, and efforts will be made to promote the innovative development of future industries such as humanoid robots, the metaverse, and brain - computer interfaces [3]. - The US will impose heavy taxes on Chinese graphite, which has caused complaints from US companies, impacted the electric vehicle industry, and raised concerns in many countries [3]. - The one - year and five - year LPR remained unchanged [3]. - Li Qiang attended the groundbreaking ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project in Nyingchi, Tibet. The project will build 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, mainly for power transmission and consumption, while also meeting local self - use needs in Tibet [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.73 | 0.29 | 1.04 | 0.93 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 8.934 | 4.5714 | 8.5044 | 18.3945 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 2.494 | - 1.9875 | - 0.9461 | - 0.1381 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.1155 | 9.2827 | 22.0791 | 32.8314 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 0.2025 | - 0.0634 | 0.5196 | 1.5851 | [5][6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.72 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.86 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.10 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 169.998 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | 12.8937 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 10.13%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.3% [2]. - In the copper futures market, the latest prices of沪铜主力,沪铜连一,沪铜连三, and伦铜3M are 79,700 yuan/ton, 79,770 yuan/ton, 79,750 yuan/ton, and 9,794.5 dollars/ton respectively, with daily increases of 1,290 yuan, 1,330 yuan, 1,390 yuan, and 116.5 dollars, and daily increase rates of 1.65%, 1.7%, 1.77%, and 1.2% respectively. The沪伦比is 8.15, with a daily decrease of 0.03 and a daily decrease rate of 0.37% [8]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, reduction in LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17th. However, the strong US retail data on July 17th and positive tariff expectations on July 18th boosted copper prices. The decline in the gold - copper ratio also indicated a change in investors' risk preferences. In the next week, copper prices may continue the strong trend of the last two trading days of last week, showing a slight upward trend. The US tariff policies with Indonesia and Japan are also beneficial to demand. The durable goods orders data on July 25th is worth attention [6]. 3.5 Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,660 yuan/ton, 78,635 yuan/ton, 78,540 yuan/ton, and 79,760 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 640 yuan, 620 yuan, 550 yuan, and 1,050 yuan, and daily increase rates of 0.82%, 0.79%, 0.71%, and 1.33% respectively. The升贴水of Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 220 yuan/ton, 115 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 45 yuan, 30 yuan, 5 yuan, and 20 yuan, and daily increase rates of 25.71%, 35.29%, 9.09%, and 19.05% respectively [11]. 3.6 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Spread - The current scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 513.08 yuan and a daily increase rate of 53.15%. The reasonable scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.45 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.7%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 18.19 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 502.63 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 96.51%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [14]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total沪铜仓单is 38,239 tons, with a daily decrease of 3,900 tons and a daily decrease rate of 9.26%. The total international copper warehouse receipt is 4,667 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,708 tons and a daily decrease rate of 36.72% [17]. - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, with a daily decrease of 100 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.08%. The registered LME copper warehouse receipt is 108,100 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,850 tons and a daily decrease rate of 2.57%. The cancelled LME copper warehouse receipt is 14,075 tons, with a daily increase of 2,875 tons and a daily increase rate of 25.67% [19]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,633 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.69%. The registered COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 107,368 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,944 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.76%. The cancelled COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 135,469 tons, with a weekly increase of 217 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.16% [22][23]. 3.8 Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 127.28 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.74 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 11.62%. The copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, with no daily change [23].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/21 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 21.16% | 58.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 13.49% | 18.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | | | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | 多 | ...