Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7,000 - 7,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.30%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 33.2% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline: - Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,300 - 7,400 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 120 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - When inventory is low and want to lock in procurement costs: - Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7,100 - 7,200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Core Contradiction - PE supply has decreased recently: device overhauls are ongoing until mid - July; some full - density devices switched from LLDPE to HDPE due to high HDPE - LLDPE spread; PE imports from Iran may decline in July - August. Although PE demand is in the off - season, the demand in June was better than expected, indicating potential upward drivers for PE [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread led to production switch, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict may cause a decline in PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year [5] - The spot price has been weak [5] 6. Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis, L01, L05, L09 contracts, and various month - spreads showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North, East, and South China, as well as regional spreads, changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between HDPE and LLDPE products and LDPE and LLDPE products changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, methanol price, and various PE processing profits showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains a view of buying precious metals on dips. The precious metals market may follow the safe - haven logic under the escalation of the tariff trade war or the logic of enhanced interest - rate cuts when tariff concerns ease. The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation since late April. The short - term focus is on the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400; for London silver, the support is in the 36 - 36.2 area, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The operation strategy is still to buy on pullbacks [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver adjust. The U.S. dollar index oscillated weakly, U.S. bond yields decreased significantly, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rose, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3322.5 per ounce, up 0.17%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.605 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 766.82 yuan per gram, down 1%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 8899 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% [2]. - The Fed's June FOMC meeting minutes showed increased differences among officials regarding the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Most officials believed that tariffs might continuously push up inflation, while a few were willing to consider an interest - rate cut at the next meeting. The reasons for the differences were the uncertainty of tariff policies and their impact on inflation, as well as the government's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have slightly increased overall. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 4.5%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 44.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 31.9 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.8 tons to 1320.9 tons, and as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - On Thursday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. - On Friday at 02:30, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on the U.S. economic outlook [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio of CME and the price differences between SHFE and TD [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [15][16]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the U.S. dollar index, U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Index, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year U.S. bond yield, 10 - year U.S. real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year U.S. bond yield spread [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - PP is currently in a volatile pattern. Considering its fundamentals, the upside and downside space for PP is limited. In the short - term, PP is expected to maintain this volatile pattern. The supply side is expected to have significant increments, including new plant commissions and reduced equipment maintenance, which restricts upward price movement. Although in the demand off - season, demand shows some resilience at low prices, limiting the downside space [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.27%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 30.3% [1] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150, and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 100 [1] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6950 - 7000, and sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 70 [1] 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side Factors - Multiple PP plants are expected to be commissioned from June to August, with an expected new production capacity of 2.2 million tons. In July, PP equipment maintenance is expected to decrease, and plants are gradually resuming operations, increasing supply pressure [2] 3.3.2 Demand - side Factors - Although PP is in the demand off - season, demand shows some resilience at low prices, which may trigger bottom - fishing sentiment [2] 3.3.3 Market Conditions - Inventory remains at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively stable with little change in the basis [5] 3.4 Market Data 3.4.1 Price and Spread Data - Data on polypropylene's main basis, contract prices, month - to - month spreads, regional spreads, and spreads between non - standard and standard products are provided [6] 3.4.2 Upstream Price and Processing Profit - Data on upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, US propane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits for different production methods of PP, are presented [6]

Group 1: Report Title and Team - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Bottom Support is Loosening [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Shanghai Nickel price range forecast: 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategy: When product sales price drops, short Shanghai Nickel futures (60% ratio, strategy level 2) and sell call options (50% ratio, strategy level 2) [2] - Procurement management strategy: When worried about raw material price rise, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts and sell put options according to production plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel shows weak and volatile intraday trend, affected by the non - ferrous market. Nickel ore price may decline due to increased Philippine shipments, but the decline space is limited. Nickel iron price stabilizes, close to the conversion spread of high - ice nickel. Pay attention to anti - dumping tax and major factory production cuts for stainless steel, and macro - tariff and non - ferrous market trends [3] Group 4:利多/利空解读 - Bullish factors: Congo cobalt mine ban continues, Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, Indonesia shortens nickel ore quota license period from three to one year [4] - Bearish factors: Stainless steel enters traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, nickel - iron industry chain contradiction deepens with surplus situation unchanged, and pure nickel inventory is high [4] Group 5: Daily Market Data Nickel - Latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract: 119,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts show declines. LME Nickel 3M at 15,015 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. Volume 111,063 lots, open interest 72,919 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.75% [6] Stainless steel - Latest price of stainless steel main contract: 12,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; continuous contracts show increases. Volume 98,636 lots, open interest 87,766 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.11% [7] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 38,029 tons, up 186 tons; LME nickel inventory: 203,562 tons, up 942 tons; stainless steel social inventory: 978 tons, down 14.1 tons; nickel pig iron inventory: 37,534 tons, up 2,924 tons [8]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月9日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 通胀偏弱，红利指数再度领涨 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.18%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨512.38亿元。期 指均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会 改变"。 2.中国6月PPI同比下降3.6%，预期降3.2%，前值降3.3%；中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，预期持平，前值降 0.1%。 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.16 | -0.18 | -0.38 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 8.2089 | 4.2379 | 7.0784 | 16.2388 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.2799 | -0.4117 | -2.2217 | -5.5394 | | 持仓量（万手 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped upward chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fall in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical upgrades and increased production. Strategy suggestions are to conduct a long - short spread trade between LC2509 and LC2511 and to short LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile of 25.9% over three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 64,400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan or 0.81% from the previous day; trading volume was 350,125 lots, down 195,280 lots or 35.80%; open interest was 326,895 lots, down 11,139 lots or 3.30%. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan or 0.85%; trading volume was 30,581 lots, down 24,591 lots or 44.57%; open interest was 94,359 lots, down 746 lots or 0.78% [9]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 14.29%; the LC09 - 11 spread was 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 6%; the LC11 - 12 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or - 50% [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,385 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.21%; for Li2O: 3 - 4%, it was 2,515 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.41%; for Li2O: 5 - 5.5%, it was 4,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 1.02%. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazil CIF) was 670 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars or 0.75%; for Australian ore CIF, it was also 670 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars or 0.75%; for fastmarkets, it was 670 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars or 1.51%. The average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6 - 7%) was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1.69%. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1741, down 0.0008 or - 0.01% [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 0.65%; for battery - grade lithium carbonate, it was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 0.64%. The average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 51,970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.1%; for battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), it was 62,620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.08%; for battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea), it was 8.05 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars or - 0.62%; for fastmarkets, it was 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [20]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was - 280 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan or - 333.33%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 114.87 yuan/ton, down 284.99 yuan or - 71.27% [24]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.32%; for low - end energy - storage type, it was 27,280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.33%; for mid - to - high - end energy - storage type, it was 29,520 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan or 0.32%. The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate was 43,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.12%. For ternary materials, the 523 (consumer - type) was 105,960 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0%; the 622 (consumer - type) was 111,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 811 (power - type) was 142,780 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.01%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. For electrolyte, the price for lithium iron phosphate use was 17,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; for iron - lithium energy - storage use, it was 17,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; for iron - lithium power use, it was 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; for ternary power use, it was 21,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [26][27]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: For the LC2507 contract, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy was 400 yuan/ton; Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianyi Lithium Industry were 500 yuan/ton; Jiangxi Jiuling and Yongxing Materials were 300 yuan/ton; Zhongkuang Resources was 400 yuan/ton; Ruifu Lithium Industry was 100 yuan/ton; Zhejiang New Era was 0 yuan/ton; for Lanke Lithium Industry (quasi - electric), it was - 300 yuan/ton; for industrial - grade, it was - 400 yuan/ton. The comprehensive basis quote for the four materials was 162.5 yuan/ton [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 13,281, an increase of 626 from the previous day. There were changes in the warehouse receipts of some warehouses, such as an increase of 652 in Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Yifeng), a decrease of 180 in Jiangsu Bennigang Wharf, etc [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate, but no specific data values are summarized here [33].

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated July 9, 2025, focusing on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, with persistent supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs in the wet season, while downstream demand is insufficient. Short - term inventory has decreased, but remains at a historical high. The industry faces significant adjustment pressure. Recommended strategies are SI2509 - SI2512 positive spread arbitrage and long SI2508 - short PS2511 [4] Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is influenced by both fundamental and "anti - involution" logics. Fundamentally, lower raw material prices and expected lower electricity costs may boost production capacity, but demand growth is limited after the H1 PV installation rush. High inventory persists. If effective industry integration occurs, it could reverse the current situation. The recommended strategy is PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread arbitrage [10] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous period; trading volume is 1153446 lots, down 32.44%; open interest is 399029 lots, up 3.08%. SI09 - 11 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 22.22%; SI11 - 12 spread is - 310 yuan/ton, up 4.62% [14][16] Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remain stable. The basis of East China 553 is 535 yuan/ton, down 24.11%; the basis of East China 421 is 835 yuan/ton, down 16.92%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [18] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipts are 50792 lots, down 285 lots (1.27%). Warehouse receipts in some regional delivery warehouses have changed slightly [25] Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 39270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%; trading volume is 794464 lots, up 25.24%; open interest is 97187 lots, down 12.09%. PS08 - 09 spread is 400 yuan/ton, up 63.27%; PS08 - 11 spread is 810 yuan/ton, up 70.53%; PS09 - 11 spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 78.26%; PS11 - 12 spread is - 2135 yuan/ton, up 15.61% [28][30] Spot Data - Spot prices of some polysilicon products are stable, while N - type polysilicon price index and some other products have increased slightly. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 40 yuan/kg, up 3.36% [35] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 730 yuan/ton, up 131.75%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment. Also, buy out - of - the - money put options [2] Procurement Management - When there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of asphalt remains resilient. This week, production decreased slightly month - on - month, and demand slowed down due to rainfall in the north. Overall inventory depletion is not obvious, with social inventory changing little. The asphalt basis fluctuates, and the crack spread is still in a high range. Looking ahead, supply is seasonally recovering but limited by poor refined oil profits. Demand is expected to enter a peak season in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the significant cost fluctuations of crude oil after OPEC's production increase and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.99% [2]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply is seasonally recovering but limited by poor refined oil profits. Demand will enter a peak season in August, with improved construction conditions in the north and south, accelerated debt resolution by local governments in 2025, eased funds, and a certain guarantee of project quantity during the "14th Five - Year Plan" closing stage [3]. 3.4. Bullish Factors - Asphalt plants have little inventory pressure, providing a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is low, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [8]. 3.5. Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries has recovered; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; OPEC's continued production increase has dragged down oil prices [5][6]. 3.6. Price and Basis Data - On July 9, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3835 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan day - on - day and 20 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3830 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 50 yuan week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3620 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan day - on - day and up 20 yuan week - on - week) [6]. - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 212 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan day - on - day and 32 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 207 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan day - on - day and 2 yuan week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 127 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan day - on - day and 52 yuan week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 3 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan day - on - day and 32 yuan week - on - week) [6]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent was 161.7242 yuan/barrel (up 1.7329 yuan day - on - day and down 4.0216 yuan week - on - week) [6].

Report Title Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report, July 9, 2025 - Spot Price of Taicang Delivery Goods Weakens [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current cost of logs has support, but the spot digestion ability may face certain pressure, and the log futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: With high log import volume and high inventory, and concerns about price drops, enterprises with long - spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short - spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions in Delivery - The first - month delivery of the 07 contract is in progress. Manual and intelligent measurement are randomly matched. The intelligent measurement has a larger over - measurement rate, estimated at a 2% range. The delivery efficiency has gradually improved, with manual measurement achieving a pre - measurement mechanism, increasing the delivery rate to about 40 - 45 minutes per lot. The actual delivery cost at Taicang Xinhai Wharf is 7 yuan per cubic meter. Sellers may face friction costs due to non - standard log shapes, which can be reduced by paying sorting fees or accepted as random costs. If the goods are of good quality, the random cost can be less than 10 yuan per cubic meter. Buyers without direct processing ability need to sell the received logs at a discount to processing plants [3]. Spot Market - The price of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang dropped by 20 yuan to 750 yuan per cubic meter. The latest CFR quote has a maximum of 117 US dollars, increasing import costs, but the possibility of weakening ocean freight makes the sustainability of this quote uncertain. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume remains high. Although the real estate market is weak, furniture consumption provides support, and the national subsidy policy boosts the demand for pallets in related fields. The ongoing delivery process allows downstream processing plants to continuously absorb delivery goods for replenishment. If the absorption willingness weakens in the future, the spot price may continue to decline. Overseas shipment volume shows no obvious weakening, and there is still pressure on future arrivals [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the continuous increase in foreign shipment volume [8]. Spot and Basis - The report provides spot prices, price changes, spot over - measurement conversions,主力 contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, and basis calculations for different log specifications in different ports on July 9, 2025. The formula for the converted basis is: Converted basis = Spot price after over - measurement (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [8][9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The imported volume of radiata pine in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 million cubic meters and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port inventory was 323 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 13 million cubic meters. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,926,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 85,000 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,093,911 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20,589 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 40%. - **Demand**: As of July 4, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 6.69 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 32.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.9 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 60.5%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.15 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. - **Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was - 73 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan. The import profit of spruce was - 38 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan [10].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...