Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro sentiment and coking coal prices. However, the short - term upward space for PP is relatively limited due to expected supply increases [2]. - The reasons for limited upward space of PP are new device commissioning and reduced device maintenance, which increase supply pressure [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors for PP. Positive factors include favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and firm spot prices, while negative factors are new device commissioning and the return of marginal devices [2][3] Summaries by Related Content Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.38%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 30.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short 25% of PP2509 futures to lock in profits and offset production costs, and sell 50% of PP2509C7200 call options to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, and sell 75% of PP2509P7100 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if prices fall [1] Core Contradictions - In the context of macro - driven market upswing, the upward space for PP is limited. The supply of PP is expected to increase significantly. New devices are being commissioned, and device maintenance has decreased, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Positive Factors - Favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and relatively firm spot prices [2] Negative Factors - Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH device profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually resuming production [3] Market Data - The table shows various data such as polypropylene basis, contract prices, regional price differences, upstream prices, and processing profits [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased for the second consecutive week, similar to the trend reflected in API data. However, U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories remain at low levels, and the destocking trend has strengthened market expectations of a demand recovery. The good performance of the refined oil market and the support of crack spreads will encourage U.S. refineries to maintain high operating rates, and crude oil processing demand is expected to remain stable [3][5]. - The current crude oil market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include geopolitical risks and seasonal demand support, while bearish factors mainly include OPEC+ production increases and weak macro sentiment. OPEC+ production increases will have a medium - to long - term impact on the crude oil market. The current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere has a limited bullish cycle, and the market may anticipate the peak - season inflection point in advance. The extension of U.S. tariff deadlines is a short - term emotional driver. Geopolitical risks are a major potential positive factor, but their impact on oil prices is expected to weaken after June. Overall, in the short term, oil prices are supported, and the market is more sensitive to bullish factors, but in the medium to long term, they are constrained by supply increases and weakening demand. The strategy is to view the crude oil market as volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Dynamics Geopolitical - On July 9, local time, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said during a visit to Slovakia that if Israel and Hamas reach a temporary cease - fire agreement, Israel is willing to discuss a permanent cease - fire in Gaza. Cohen emphasized that Hamas still holds 50 Israeli hostages and that the war could end if Hamas releases all hostages and lays down its arms. He also denied that Israel was delaying the war and stressed the need to continue pressuring Hamas [4]. Macro - On July 9, local time, U.S. President Trump issued 8 tariff policy statements on his social media platform "Truth Social", targeting 8 countries including Brazil, the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil, 30% on Libya, Iraq, Algeria, and Sri Lanka, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 20% on the Philippines, effective August 1. Trump has sent tariff letters to 22 countries [4]. - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos interpreted that the Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that officials were divided into three camps: the mainstream group supports rate cuts this year but rules out a July cut; the second group advocates keeping the current interest rate level unchanged; the third group, a "minority", including possibly Fed governors Waller and Bowman, wants an immediate rate cut at the next meeting. The statement that "several participants said the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be much higher than the neutral level" implies that even if the Fed restarts rate cuts, the scope will be limited unless the economy slows significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate policies [5]. Fundamental - EIA data shows that as of the week ending July 4, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, in line with the lower limit of the 5 - year average. Last week, U.S. crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, and exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day. Although the refinery operating rate decreased by 0.2% and crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day, the current processing volume is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, indicating good overall demand. In the refined oil market, U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.658 million barrels and diesel inventories decreased by 825,000 barrels last week. Low inventory levels and the destocking trend have strengthened market expectations of a demand recovery [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating strongly, basically recovering recent losses, with its fluctuations affected by the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the increase in the shipment volume of mines from the Philippines led to a certain decline in prices, but the subsequent downward space of ore prices was limited due to the disturbance of nickel ore quotas. The intraday transaction price of ferronickel stabilized, mainly affected by weak downstream demand, and was currently close to the conversion spread of high - grade nickel matte. The intraday trend of stainless steel was strong, but the spot reaction was limited, and there was no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. Currently, the tariff game between Indonesia and the United States increased the sentiment disturbance in the downstream of the nickel industry chain. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. The subsequent focus should be on the impact of macro - tariffs and the trend of the non - ferrous market [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. 3.2 Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of Shanghai nickel main contracts), and sell call options (50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; The tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,140 yuan/ton, a 2% increase; trading volume decreased by 8.02% to 102,155 lots; open interest decreased by 9.74% to 65,815 lots; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 20,605 tons; the basis of the main contract was - 860 yuan/ton, a - 31.8% change [5]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, a 1% increase; trading volume increased by 2.43% to 101,032 lots; open interest decreased by 2.76% to 85,345 lots; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 111,290 tons; the basis of the main contract was 300 yuan/ton, a - 18.92% change [6]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social inventory of nickel was 38,029 tons, an increase of 186 tons; LME nickel inventory was 204,738 tons, an increase of 1,176 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons; ferronickel inventory was 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [7].

Report Title - Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] Date - July 10, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Ferrous alloys showed a certain rebound sentiment driven by the rebound in coal prices and technical buying. Last week, they maintained an upward trend with the proposed elimination of outdated production capacity. The recent upward trend is mainly due to policy expectations and the strength of coal prices. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price cuts and weakening costs. In the context of the gradual entry of terminal steel demand into the off - season, the long - term trend of ferrous alloys remains relatively weak. With profit restoration, the operating rate has rebounded, and production is in a state of over - seasonal increase. Output has slightly increased, but downstream demand has not changed significantly, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation. With the price reduction of manganese ore in August and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferrous alloys are expected to continue to operate weakly. Although ferrous alloys, as an over - capacity industry, benefited from the policy of eliminating outdated production capacity last week, after the market recovery, there is a high possibility of profit restoration and increased production, supply pressure will gradually increase, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. In the short term, the strong expectation is prevailing in the game between strong expectation and weak reality, and it remains to be seen whether the expectation can be realized [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Alloy Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 16.37% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.7%, and for ferromanganese, it is 14.42% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] Ferrous Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [2] Core Contradiction - Ferrous alloys rebounded due to coal price and policy factors, but the long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mills' price cuts, weakening costs, and off - season demand. There is a trend of over - seasonal production increase and inventory accumulation. After the market recovery, supply pressure may increase [3] Bullish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.46%. The profit in the Ningxia production area was - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [4] - **Ferromanganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the profit in the northern region was - 158.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.54 yuan, and in the southern region, it was - 489.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.98 yuan [6] Bearish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit restoration. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 31.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25%, and the weekly output was 100,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%. There is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of ferrous alloys. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration following the June cancellation rules. The expected decline in hot metal production will weaken the support for ferrous alloys [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand lead to weak demand for ferromanganese. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 40.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%, and the weekly output was 180,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [8] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 8, a day - on - day decrease of 92 and a week - on - week decrease of 6. The 01 - 05 spread was - 46, a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 84, a day - on - day increase of 6 and a week - on - week increase of 42. The 09 - 01 spread was - 38, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 17,855, a day - on - day increase of 5028 and a week - on - week increase of 8177 [9] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 132, a day - on - day decrease of 68 and a week - on - week increase of 8. The 01 - 05 spread was - 24, a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 12. The 05 - 09 spread was 60, a day - on - day decrease of 12 and a week - on - week decrease of 16. The 09 - 01 spread was - 36, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The double - silicon spread was - 326, a day - on - day decrease of 26 and a week - on - week decrease of 36. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 85,444, a day - on - day decrease of 547 and a week - on - week decrease of 4154 [10][11] Seasonal Charts - Provided seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - decline cycle, a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - lithium salt price drop again" may occur. When the futures price rebounds, a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" may form, but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price will fluctuate downward as technological upgrades end and production output is released [3]. - Strategy suggestions: conduct a long - LC2509 and short - LC2511 calendar spread; short LC2511 at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.2% and a historical percentile of 17.6% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 64,180 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 398,022 lots, up 47,897 lots (13.68%); the open interest is 323,683 lots, down 3,212 lots (- 0.98%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 63,920 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan (- 0.25%); the trading volume is 38,236 lots, up 7,655 lots (25.03%); the open interest is 99,240 lots, up 4,881 lots (5.17%) [9]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 260 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 19%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan, down 220 yuan (220%) [12]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The latest average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents (2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,405 yuan/ton, 2,540 yuan/ton, and 4,995 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan (1.44%), 25 yuan (0.99%), and 45 yuan (0.91%). For lithium辉石 with Li₂O:6% (Brazil CIF, Australian CIF, fastmarkets), the prices are 670 US dollars/ton, 675 US dollars/ton, and 675 US dollars/ton, with daily increases of 0 US dollars (0%), 5 US dollars (0.75%), and 5 US dollars (0.74%). The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:6 - 7%) is 4,565 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (1.44%). The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1771, down 0.0031 (- 0.04%) [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 62,050 yuan/ton and 63,650 yuan/ton respectively, both up 350 yuan (0.57% and 0.55%). The prices of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) are 51,970 yuan/ton and 62,570 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) is 8 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars (- 0.62%); the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) is 8.00 US dollars/kg, unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (47.95%); the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea - domestic spread is - 212 yuan/ton, down 382.51 yuan (- 224.33%) [21]. - **Downstream Products**: The latest average prices of power - type, low - end energy - storage type, and mid - to - high - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate are 31,030 yuan/ton, 27,360 yuan/ton, and 29,605 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 80 yuan (0.26%), 80 yuan (0.29%), and 85 yuan (0.29%). The price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 43,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.12%). For ternary materials (523 - type for consumption, 622 - type for consumption, 811 - type for power), the prices are 106,100 yuan/ton, 111,050 yuan/ton, and 142,850 yuan/ton, with daily increases of 140 yuan (0%), 30 yuan (0.03%), and 70 yuan (0.05%). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,050 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan (- 0.97%). The prices of electrolytes for lithium iron phosphate, lithium - iron energy - storage, lithium - iron power, and ternary power are 17,800 yuan/ton, 16,900 yuan/ton, 19,300 yuan/ton, and 21,750 yuan/ton respectively, all down 150 yuan (- 1%) [23][24]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis quotes of lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, etc., for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 yuan to 500 yuan, with no daily changes. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for the LC2507 contract is 162.5 yuan, unchanged [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 13,281, down 90 from the previous day. The warehouse - receipt quantities of some warehouses have changed, such as a decrease of 60 in Suining Tiancheng and an increase of 30 in Cosco Shipping Nanchang [32]. 4. Cost and Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only provides some profit trend charts including production profit from外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%), production profit from外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in the southwest during the wet season, while the downstream demand is expected to strengthen. The price will show a wide - range oscillation. Strategies include focusing on SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread opportunities and the chance of going long on near - month industrial silicon and shorting far - month polysilicon [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, lower production costs may lead to increased production capacity, while demand growth is limited, and inventory pressure remains high. If industry integration is effective, it may drive up prices. The recommended strategy is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8470 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,468,586 lots, up 27.32%; the open interest is 381,237 lots, down 4.46% [11]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 27.27% from the previous period; the SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, up 14.52% [15]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of 553 silicon in different regions range from 8200 - 8750 yuan/ton, with some showing price increases. The price of 421 silicon in different regions ranges from 8950 - 9900 yuan/ton, mostly stable. The spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total warehouse receipts are 50,544 lots, down 248 lots from the previous period. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows little change, except for Sichuan and Jiangsu which have slight increases [23][24]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 41,345 yuan/ton, up 5.28% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,014,567 lots, up 27.70%; the open interest is 98,601 lots, up 1.45% [26]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 300 yuan/ton, down 25.00% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 800 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the PS09 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, up 21.95%; the PS11 - 12 spread is - 2325 yuan/ton, up 8.90% [28]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of different types of polysilicon show some changes, with N - type polysilicon price index rising 12.00% to 44.8 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also have certain fluctuations [33][35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 3455 yuan/ton, up 373.29% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40][42]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, strategies include shorting futures on the main contract, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying long - term futures contracts according to production plans, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the stock indices closed higher overall, with a slight decline in the late trading session. The "Beijing Special Action Plan for Deepening Reforms to Boost Consumption" issued by the Beijing Municipal Government mentioned optimizing the new supply of housing consumption and relevant policies, which stimulated the real - estate sector to surge significantly after the afternoon opening and led the gains today. Besides the real - estate sector, the financial sector also performed strongly, with the stock prices of the four major banks hitting new historical highs, driving the relatively stronger performance of large - cap stocks. Overseas, there has been a new trade storm recently, as Trump threatened multiple countries with new tariff rates, but the market reaction was relatively desensitized, waiting for subsequent data verification. Although the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly today, it still approached 1.5 trillion yuan, and there was no obvious change in market sentiment. Therefore, it is expected that the stock indices will continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.47%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 11.028 billion yuan. All stock index futures increased in volume and price [4]. Important Information - President Trump posted letters to the leaders of eight countries regarding tariff increases on social media platforms. The new tariff rates will take effect on August 1st. - The Beijing Municipal Government issued the "Beijing Special Action Plan for Deepening Reforms to Boost Consumption". The overall requirement is to combine market and government forces, promote both supply and demand, support both enterprises and scenarios, and integrate international and domestic resources. By 2030, the city aims to achieve an average annual growth of about 5% in total market consumption, create 2 - 3 new consumption landmarks with a scale of 100 billion yuan integrating culture, business, tourism, and sports, and further enhance its radiation, resource allocation, and innovation - leading capabilities in the global consumption market, making new breakthroughs in building an international consumption center city [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 0.19 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.7027 | 5.6248 | 7.3407 | 16.8165 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 1.4938 | 1.3869 | 0.2623 | 0.5777 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.802 | 9.5486 | 22.7469 | 33.3057 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 1.1835 | 0.9632 | 0.5291 | 1.1313 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.48 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.47 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.29 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1494.148 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 11.028 | [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.41%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 21.2% [2] Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Important News - The copper market fundamentals remain stable [3] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations [5] - Global demand reduction due to tariff policies [6] - The Fed maintains high interest rates [6] - Low - level hovering of the US dollar index [8] - Increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts [8] Copper Futures Disk Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,400 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,400 | - 1220 | - 1.53% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,000 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9665 | - 119 | - 1.22% | | Shanghai - LME Ratio | Ratio | 8.06 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Copper Spot Data | Spot | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,190 | - 605 | - 0.76% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 79,165 | - 580 | - 0.73% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 79,160 | - 540 | - 0.68% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,360 | - 550 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | yuan/ton | - 15 | - 20 | - 400% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | yuan/ton | 50 | 0 | 0% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 55 | 0 | 0% | [9] Copper Scrap Spread Data Tax - included - Current scrap spread: 1031.28 yuan/ton, down 612.23 yuan/ton (- 37.25%) - Reasonable scrap spread: 1490.1 yuan/ton, down 8.25 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) - Price advantage: - 458.82 yuan/ton, down 603.98 yuan/ton (- 416.08%) [10] Tax - excluded - Current scrap spread: 5710 yuan/ton, down 625 yuan/ton (- 9.87%) - Reasonable scrap spread: 6183.29 yuan/ton, down 57.26 yuan/ton (- 0.92%) - Price advantage: - 473.29 yuan/ton, down 567.74 yuan/ton (- 601.1%) [11] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,336 | 2227 | 11.65% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 4483 | 1304 | 41.02% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 8466 | - 174 | - 2.01% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,336 | 2227 | 11.65% | [14] LME | LME Copper Inventory | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 107,125 | 4625 | 4.51% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 31,225 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 71,275 | 5100 | 7.71% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Registered Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 68,875 | 3475 | 5.31% | | Total LME Cancelled Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 38,250 | 1150 | 3.1% | [16] COMEX | COMEX Copper Inventory | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 221,788 | 10579 | 5.01% | | Total COMEX Registered Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 100,053 | - 9197 | - 0.24% | | Total COMEX Cancelled Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 121,735 | 570 | 0.47% | [18] Copper Import and Processing Data - Copper import profit and loss: - 679.37 yuan/ton, down 465.03 yuan/ton (- 40.64%) - Copper concentrate TC: - 43.33 US dollars/ton, no change [19]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Entering the third quarter, pure benzene faces a situation of increasing supply and demand. Several large downstream plants are expected to be put into operation, bringing an opportunity for the phased repair of pure benzene valuation due to the mismatch in the commissioning of upstream and downstream. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pattern of styrene has weakened. However, in the near - term, due to continuous stockpiling by industrial giants, the basis of styrene in late July has not yet fallen back to the normal level. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the change of the near - term basis, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3]. 3. Other Key Points Price Forecast - The price range of pure benzene in the monthly forecast is 5800 - 6200 yuan/ton, and that of styrene is 6800 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 85.8% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can short styrene futures (EB2508) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7350 - 7400 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (EB2508C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 60 - 80 to collect option premiums and reduce capital costs, and lock in the spot selling price if styrene prices rise [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2508) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (EB2508P7200) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 30 - 50 to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene prices fall [2]. Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Crude oil has been running strongly this week, providing strong support at the cost end. There is a long - short game in the styrene paper cargo for late July, making it difficult for the basis of late July against the 08 contract to decline [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: As of July 7, 2025, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 17.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%, and the port inventory of styrene was 11.15 tons, an increase of 1.27 tons or 12.85% from the previous period. Both pure benzene and styrene have seen inventory accumulation. It is rumored that Jingbo may start a cracking unit at the end of July, and its 670,000 - ton/year styrene unit may produce products in mid - to - early August. Guoen Chemical (Dongming)'s 200,000 - ton/year styrene unit plans to start production in August and then operate long - term, which will significantly increase styrene supply in August. The latest production scheduling data of three major white - goods have been significantly revised down, indicating a pessimistic consumption demand expectation for styrene terminals in the third quarter [5]. Price and Basis Changes - **Pure Benzene Basis**: The basis of East China - BZ03 on July 9, 2025, was - 195 yuan/ton, East China - BZ04 was - 205 yuan/ton, East China - BZ05 was - 204 yuan/ton, and East China - BZ06 was - 175 yuan/ton [8]. - **Styrene Basis**: The basis of East China - EB07 on July 9, 2025, was 136 yuan/ton, East China - EB08 was 285 yuan/ton, East China - EB09 was 372 yuan/ton, and East China - EB10 was 447 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Chain Price Spread**: The price spreads between different periods of pure benzene and styrene paper cargo, and between styrene and pure benzene at different time points and contracts have changed to different degrees. For example, the spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot on July 9, 2025, was 1735 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Industry Chain Prices - **July 9, 2025 Prices**: Brent crude oil was 70.18 dollars/barrel, and the price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5905 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of styrene in the East China market was 7635 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. EB2508 was 7350 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9][10].

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月10日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 262890 | 245000-263000 | 11.52% | 16.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） 重要新闻： 基本面保持稳定。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 3. 缅甸复产不及预期。 利空因素： 1. 关税政策反复。 2. 缅甸复产。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | ...