南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——复产扰动+Q1淡季预期，注意回调风险 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅偏弱震荡态势。展望未来一个月，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国 内锂矿库存紧张程度、枧下窝复产进展、下游补库节奏、Q1下游排产，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走 势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存仍较为紧张。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市 场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游 库存降幅显著。12月份下游正极材料及动力电芯排产环比微增，市场需求维持强劲。同时，下游补库节奏亦 不容忽视，碳酸锂价格已连续上涨约1个月，涨价周期内下游对高价碳酸锂的采购意愿显著下降，以消耗自身 库存为主。若后续刚需补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。从技术面分析，当前面临较大回调压 力。 综合基本面等因素分 ...

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——交割品牌增加，下行风险增大 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、新注册交割品牌的仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 从时间维度来看，当前光伏收储平台落地进程未出现实质性进展。同时，由于近两周市场炒作可交割品不足 的问题，广期所已于周五新增两个厂家的交割品，预计后续将对多晶硅期货产生较大影响。 从 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The mid - term weakness of crude oil may not support large - scale winter storage of asphalt. Refinery profits offer limited room for price cuts, suppressing the enthusiasm for winter storage, which may face a "lack of volume" problem. The winter storage policy in Shandong is expected to be announced next week, with prices likely around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton [2]. - This week, the overall asphalt supply slightly decreased due to adjustments in North China refineries. The demand improved as prices dropped, mainly consuming social inventories. The peak season in the south did not exceed expectations. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories decreased. Crude oil prices were weakly volatile, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the long - term, northern demand will end with falling temperatures, while southern demand may increase after rainfall decreases [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage and whether refineries will adjust prices to stimulate purchases. The long - term market will be affected by macro factors, policies, winter storage, and geopolitical situations [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The mid - term weakness of crude oil and limited refinery profit margins may lead to insufficient winter storage volume. The winter storage price in Shandong is expected to be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. After the policy is announced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Options sellers can be used for two - way strategies, or opportunities for long - position in BU03 basis can be considered [2]. - Other factors remain unchanged. Supply decreased slightly this week, demand improved as prices dropped, and the market is in a weakly volatile state. Attention should be paid to winter storage and price adjustments by refineries [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to be weakly volatile. Technical analysis suggests paying attention to the pressure level of 3050 and support level of 2950 for BU2601. The basis is expected to be bearish, the monthly spread may weaken seasonally, and there is no obvious driver for the crack spread between asphalt and crude oil, so it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventories are high, short - selling asphalt futures or selling call options can be used to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buying asphalt futures or selling put options can be used to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Domestic Asphalt Market Review**: Prices in South China, Shandong, Northwest, Northeast, and North China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton this week. Northern demand decreased, and some refineries in the Northwest offered low - price winter storage. In South China, supply increased, and prices decreased. The East China market had sufficient supply [18]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Asphalt consumption is entering the off - season, demand is under pressure, Shandong refineries have复产 plans, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Geopolitical situation changes, including the shipping and arrival of Venezuelan crude oil, Russian crude oil exports, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. Also, pay attention to the asphalt winter storage policy [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the asphalt price fluctuated, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key profitable seats decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The asphalt basis structure weakened significantly this week, with the spot price close to the futures price. This is because spot trading was dull, and low - price contract resources supported market activity [26]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The monthly spread structure of asphalt continued to weaken, which is in line with the characteristics of the off - season [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - In the coking material market, the price of Shandong coking material increased by 75 to 3500 yuan/ton as of December 4. The profit of coking units improved, but high - price resource transactions were limited. The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 25 to 2960 - 3450 yuan/ton. The demand decreased, supply increased, and the price may continue to fall. The price difference between asphalt and coking material widened, but most asphalt plants have no plans to switch to producing coking materials in the short term [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3300 - 3380 yuan/ton. Some high - speed projects in East China are driving the consumption of imported asphalt, while demand in the North has decreased significantly [51]. - **New - Malaysia - Thailand Market**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 500 - 520 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4030 - 4190 yuan/ton. The CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4150 - 4230 yuan/ton. The overall demand is stable, but the consumption of imported asphalt is limited due to competition from domestic resources [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - From January to October 2025, China's asphalt production was 2361 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 267 million tons or 13%. From January to November, the expected production is about 2585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260 million tons or 11% [54]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Most modified asphalt plants in the North have stopped production, while demand in the South has increased due to construction rush, leading to an increase in the local modified asphalt operating rate [74]. 5.3 Inventory Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast and Northwest will gradually receive refinery resources, and inventory levels will slowly rise. In the South, stable project construction has led to a continuous decline in social inventory levels [88]. 5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes from January to October 2025 [111]. 5.5 Weather Outlook - In the next 10 days (December 6 - 15), many regions in China will have precipitation, with some areas having higher precipitation than the same period of the year, while some areas will have less precipitation [112].

南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——棉价震荡波动，关注上方压力 2025/12/5 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 * 近端交易逻辑 当前新棉加速上市，但下游存在韧性，虽处于传统淡季时期，但部分板块订单情况良好且纱厂保持一定利 润，在新棉最终产量未有超预期上调下，棉价下方空间有限，关注13800附近套保压力突破情况。 . .. 中国棉花采摘进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 09/15 09/29 10/13 10/27 11/10 11/24 12/08 12/22 0 25 50 75 100 中国棉花交售进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 11/01 01/01 03/01 05/01 0 25 50 75 100 中国纯棉纱厂负荷季节性 中国全棉坯布负荷季节性 截至2025年12月4日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计464.36万吨，近日疆棉平均日度公检 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the profit of terminal steel mills is under pressure, and the hot metal production continues to decrease, leading to an increase in the surplus of coking coal. The inventory pressure of upstream mines is gradually emerging, and the short - term coal price will still be under pressure. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and the coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. The spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price reduction pressure [2]. - The JiaoMei 01 contract has a clear short - term bearish trend, and the short positions at the previous high can be held. The far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation value. For coke, the current main contract price has factored in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts, and it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal supply: Domestic mine production decreased slightly this week. The impact of over - production inspection and environmental protection inspection continues. In December, the domestic mine operation is expected to be generally stable, and the possibility of a significant increase in coking coal production is low. The Mongolian coal at the port actively cleared customs this week. The import profit of coking coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [2]. - Coking coal demand: Terminal steel mills' profit is under pressure, hot metal production continues to decrease, and coking enterprises actively control the raw material procurement rhythm, resulting in increased inventory pressure on upstream mines [2]. - Coke supply: Due to the decline in the cost of coking coal, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase [2]. - Coke demand: With the gradual recovery of coking enterprise operation, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay [8]. - **Price Range**: JM2601 operates in the range of 1000 - 1100, 2605 in the range of 1100 - 1350; J2601 operates in the range of 1500 - 1700, 2605 in the range of 1650 - 1900 [8]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the basis of coke is currently at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [9]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The 1 - 5 positive spread of coke is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: None [10]. - **Option Strategy**: None [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Coking Coal Purchase Management**: It is recommended that industrial customers with purchase plans maintain normal raw material inventory and wait for the spot valuation to fall before purchasing [12]. - **Coke Sales Management**: It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [12]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The output of some coking coal mines and coal washing plants has changed slightly. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased by 42.97 tons compared with last week [13]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants has increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has decreased by 1.69 tons compared with last week [13]. - **Coal - Coke Futures Price and Spread**: The price and spread of coking coal and coke futures contracts have changed to varying degrees [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The social inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased. The profitability of steel mills has improved [20][21]. - **Negative Information**: The enthusiasm of coking plants for restocking is poor, and the inventory pressure of mine coking coal has increased. The coking enterprise operation rate has increased, and the number of downstream steel - mill overhauls has increased, deteriorating the supply - demand structure of coke [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday, pay attention to China's November trade balance in US dollars. - Next Wednesday, pay attention to China's November M2 money supply annual rate and November CPI annual rate. - Next Thursday, pay attention to the upper limit of the Fed's interest rate decision as of December 10 and the number of initial jobless claims in the US as of December 6 [22][25]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The JiaoMei 2601 contract is oscillating at the bottom this week, with a clear short - term bearish trend. The coke 2601 contract has a driving force to rebound and repair the basis [23]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened [32]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the current basis of coke is at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [41]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit of coking coal mines has declined from a high level, the immediate coking profit is expected to shrink marginally, and the loss situation of steel mills has eased [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The clearance enthusiasm at the 288 port has significantly increased, but the long - term trade profit of Mongolian coal has shrunk significantly. The import profit of overseas coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [51][56]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In the fourth quarter, the production increase space of coking coal mines is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal in December will be about 9.67 million tons, and the net import volume will be 10 - 10.2 million tons [78]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Recently, the profit of steel mills has shrunk, and the number of steel mills planning overhauls has increased. It is estimated that the daily average hot metal output in December will be 2.29 million tons [81]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply and demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 40 to Week 51 in 2025 are estimated, and the changes in supply, demand, and inventory are predicted [85].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 24.64 points, or 0.97%. The most influential varieties were copper and silver, with the copper variety index rising 6.2% and contributing 0.47%, and the silver variety index rising 7.54% and contributing 0.46%. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 12.72 points, or 0.36%. The most influential varieties were copper and aluminum, with the copper variety index contributing 0.53% and the aluminum variety index contributing 0.18%. The Nanhua Metal Index rose 112.05 points, or 1.72%. The most influential variety was copper, contributing 1.05%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 16.75 points, or -1.08%. The most influential variety was glass, contributing -0.21%. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 3.35 points, or -0.32%. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.23% [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Data Overview - **Index Performance**: The Nanhua Composite Index closed at 2577.08 this week, up 24.64 points from last week, with a gain of 0.97%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index closed at 1664.41, up 55.14 points, or 3.43%. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index closed at 3511.97, up 12.72 points, or 0.36%. The Nanhua Metal Index closed at 6612.13, up 112.05 points, or 1.72%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index closed at 1537.11, down 16.75 points, or -1.08%. The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index closed at 1808.01, up 41.86 points, or 2.37%. The Nanhua Black Index closed at 2512.02, up 19.53 points, or 0.78%. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index closed at 1053.88, down 3.35 points, or -0.32% [3]. - **Arbitrage Data**: In the comparison of Nanhua commodity index ratios, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index increased from 0.630 to 0.646, with a change of 0.015367754 and a ranking of 0.999. The ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index decreased from 1.371 to 1.363, with a change of -0.008172839 and a ranking of 0.084. The ratio of the metal index to the industrial products index increased from 1.858 to 1.883, with a change of 0.025179206 and a ranking of 0.972 [9]. 2. Weekly Data of Nanhua Sector Indexes - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were copper, aluminum, and pulp. Copper contributed 0.53%, aluminum contributed 0.18%, and pulp contributed 0.12% [14]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: The most influential varieties were copper, aluminum, and rebar. Copper contributed 1.05%, aluminum contributed 0.35%, and rebar contributed 0.23% [14]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: The most influential varieties were glass, natural rubber, and liquefied petroleum gas. Glass contributed -0.21%, natural rubber contributed -0.17%, and liquefied petroleum gas contributed a certain negative value [14]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: The most influential varieties were live pigs, sugar, and soybean meal. Live pigs contributed -0.23%, sugar contributed -0.10%, and soybean meal contributed -0.09% [14]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: The most influential varieties were rebar, manganese silicon, and stainless steel. Rebar contributed 0.45%, manganese silicon contributed 0.10%, and stainless steel contributed 0.09% [15]. - **Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index**: The most influential varieties were copper, aluminum, and zinc. Copper contributed 1.87%, aluminum contributed 0.64%, and zinc contributed 0.36% [17]. 3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to Index Fluctuation - The weekly average position of copper increased by 15.06%, with a position - holding ratio of 1.48%. The weekly average position of soybean meal was 3789097 hands, with a position - holding ratio of 9.15% and a year - on - year increase of - 0.11%. The weekly average position of sugar was 2293526 hands, with a position - holding ratio of 5.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.74% [19].

南华纸浆产业周报 —— 期价波动明显 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月5日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 关注现货价格变动、港口去库存情况，以及浆厂与纸厂停工复产情况。可据此进行行情的即时研判，如现价 延续跌势，港口去库进程良好，则期价可能正式开启下跌行情。 * 远端交易预期 远端上，布针仓单的影响已基本计价，影响偏弱，相反远期仓单的供应存疑，带来一定利好。美联储持续降 息进程可能暂止，宏观情绪相对转弱。国内反内卷的大战略方针之下，政策端随时可以出现利多因素。 1.2 交易型策略建议 【行情定位】 本周的核心因素在于国外浆企关停带来的供应端变动。国外一家大型浆厂宣布关停，另一家浆厂宣布暂时停 产，产能短期会出现相对明显的下滑，从供应角度利好期价走势。使得期价接连两日大涨， 从基本面来看，中国港口库存回落7.1万吨，去库相对明显，仍处于相对高位，给期价的压力持续。 在终端需求方面，下游各类纸种开工负荷率有所回升，需求有所回暖，但基于当前行业整体情况来看，需求 仍处于地位。 纸浆期价在周五有所回落，针叶浆现货市场行情反转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年12月04日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强支撑位：83000 | 58.4% | 88.9% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 推荐套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 远月期货合约 | 买入 | 10% | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划，担 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产 | LC2605-P-83000 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 关性 | 心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨导 | 计划需买入对应生产计划的期货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main reason for the recent weakness in the bond market is that the central bank's open - market operations and external expectation management since November have been overall prudent and did not match the market's high expectations. The concerns about policy tone adjustment and “short - term tightening and long - term easing” are more of an emotional interpretation. [1][3] - The bond market is currently facing potential pressures from inflation improvement and the mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - Suggestions for responding to the market situation include staying on the sidelines in the near term and paying attention to short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Reasons for the Decline - **Monetary Policy Factor**: The market's expectations for monetary policy were not met. After the central bank restarted treasury bond trading in late October, the follow - up policy guidance and actual open - market operations were restrained. The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - November did not echo the over - heated policy expectations. Near the end of the year, discussions about policy setting and the description of “short - term tightening and long - term easing” in the media also affected the bond market. [1][2][3] - **Institutional Behavior Factor**: Concerns about public fund redemption rules and banks selling old bonds are institutional behavior disturbances. The suspension of five - year large - denomination certificates of deposit by large banks and the adjustment of medium - and long - term time deposits by small and medium - sized banks led to a decline in the duration of the liability side and weakened the demand of the allocation disk. The central bank's investigation into banks' selling of old bonds also affected the market. [6] - **Potential Risk Factor**: The bond market is facing inflation pressure from statistical improvement and the strong performance of commodities, as well as the problem of the increasing mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term government bonds. [8] Response Measures - **Stay on the Sidelines**: Pay attention to the tone of the year - end meetings and the central bank's statements to observe the bottom of the recent decline. Wait for the central bank's supportive statements to avoid the potential systemic risk of concentrated redemptions caused by the over - decline of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - **Focus on Opportunities**: Focus on short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. Short - and medium - term varieties have higher anti - decline attributes and allocation value. [9]