纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/12 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2510 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300-740 0 | | 理 ...

source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/09/12 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 8100-8700 | 10.5% | 41.5% | 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 情况，做空苹果期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | AP2510 | 卖出 | 25% | 8500-8 600 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若苹果价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | AP2511C8600 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Attention to USDA Report Adjustment [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Jianing (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0020097) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the inventory of old cotton is low, new cotton is mostly pre - sold, and the downstream maintains a de - stocking state, which supports cotton prices. However, the spinning profit of yarn mills is poor, and the hedging pressure is large under the expectation of a bumper harvest, which may limit the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate within the previous range. Attention should be paid to the listing situation of new cotton and the adjustment of the USDA's September supply - demand forecast report [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of September 4, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.1%, the same as the same period last year (neutral) [2]. Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons; the cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57% (neutral) [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In August, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% (bearish) [2]. Inventory - As of the end of August, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 2.374 million tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 622,000 tons. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 892,300 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from the end of July (bullish) [2]. International Market US Supply - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the lint - opening rate was 40%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the overall good - to - excellent rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year (neutral) [2][3]. US Demand - From August 29 to September 4, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 upland cotton was 29,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47% and a 33% decrease from the four - week average; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 29,529 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a 2% decrease from the four - week average; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 272 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,315 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 upland cotton and Pima cotton this week (bearish) [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 29, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.88 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.3% (bullish) [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In August, the export volume of textile and clothing in Vietnam was 3.86 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%; the export volume of clothing in Bangladesh was 3.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, the export volume of clothing in India was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export volume of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.68 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 10.37% and a year - on - year increase of 32.13% (bearish) [3]. Market Situation - This week, Zhengzhou cotton further tested the lower limit of the oscillation range. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be harvested about 10 days earlier than usual. Next week, there may be a new round of cooling in Xinjiang, and there may be precipitation in northern Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the lint - opening and harvesting progress of new cotton. Downstream, in the seasonal peak season, the overall load of gauze mills has been further increased, and the finished - product inventory has continued to decline. Recently, the profit of yarn mills has been repaired, but the amplitude is limited. Spinning enterprises in the inland still face great operating pressure, and the replenishment intensity of yarn mills is weak, with insufficient market confidence. Abroad, as of September 6, the harvesting progress of new cotton in Brazil has reached 86.9%. CONAB's latest forecast for the new - season cotton output in Brazil is 4.061 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase and a 9.7% year - on - year increase, with the expectation of a bumper harvest remaining unchanged. As of September 4, the cumulative signed export volume of US 2025/2026 cotton was 882,000 tons, reaching 33.74% of the annual expected export volume. Recently, India has accelerated the signing and import of US cotton under the extension of the import tariff exemption period, but the overall export progress of US cotton has been continuously slow [5]. Data Overview Futures Data - Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,860 yuan, down 140 yuan or 1% from the previous week; Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,820 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.86%; Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,380 yuan, down 200 yuan or 1.47% [7]. Spot Data - CC Index 3128B was priced at 15,248 yuan, down 198 yuan or 1.28%; CC Index 2227B was priced at 13,379 yuan, down 159 yuan or 1.17%; CC Index 2129B was priced at 15,526 yuan, down 168 yuan or 1.07% [7]. Spread Data - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, down 20 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 440 yuan, up 80 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 480 yuan, down 60 yuan [8]. Import Price - FC Index M was priced at 13,371 yuan, up 96 yuan or 0.72%; FCY Index C32s was priced at 21,249 yuan, down 48 yuan or 0.23% [8]. Cotton Yarn Data - The futures price of cotton yarn closed at 19,845 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.6%; the spot price was 20,745 yuan, down 15 yuan or 0.07% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the log price trend is not obvious. Spot price cuts and the decline in foreign quotes have been fully factored in. If the 11 - contract follows the trend of the 09 - contract with low buyer acceptance for delivery, there is still room for price decline, but the current time is not right. Spot prices remained stable this week, with no significant supply - demand contradictions, and prices are slowly declining with low volatility, but the downside space is also limited. Next week, inventory reduction is expected to continue [3]. - The near - end price does not offer delivery profit. The futures price is lower than all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the price at which buyers are willing to take delivery. The long - short contradiction is not obvious, and the price will continue to fluctuate in the range of 780 - 820 until a new variable emerges [4]. - The price of the 01 - contract cannot be accurately valued at present. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading situation of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are all unknown. The monthly spread structure is at a reasonable level, and the trading volume of the 01 - contract is low, so it is not considered for now [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction affecting log price trends is not evident. Spot price drops and foreign quote decreases have been priced in. If the 11 - contract replicates the 09 - contract's pattern with low buyer delivery willingness, prices may fall further, but the current timing is inappropriate. Spot prices were stable this week, with no significant supply - demand imbalances. Prices are slowly declining with low volatility, and the bottom space is limited. Next week, inventory is expected to continue to decrease [3]. - Near - end trading logic: There is no delivery profit in the near - end price. The futures price is below all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the buyer's acceptance price. The long - short conflict is not clear, and the price will move within the 780 - 820 range until new factors emerge [4]. - Distant - end trading expectation: The 01 - contract price cannot be accurately estimated. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading status of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are unknown. The monthly spread structure is reasonable, and the 01 - contract has low trading volume, so it is not considered [5]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a downward trend. After a rebound on reduced positions, it is in low - volatility oscillation, moving towards the previous low. - Strategy suggestions: Mainly short at high prices; use the interval grid strategy with 805 as the central price, a grid interval of 5 - 10, and an interval range of 790 - 820. Set the short position twice the long position, and pay attention to risk control. If the grid is broken and exceeds the risk - control range, stop losses promptly [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short log futures to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 820 - 830 [11]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 780 - 800 [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - Bullish information: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low [11]. - Bearish information: Outbound volume is weak; foreign quotes have dropped by $2; there is uncertainty about further spot price cuts [12][14]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of various log specifications in different ports remained stable this week, with varying degrees of year - on - year decline [12][15]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After a rebound on reduced positions on Monday, the futures market mainly oscillated downward. There was a slight increase in positions and a price drop on Friday. With no new variables, trading was characterized by low volatility this week, and capital mainly flowed out [16]. 3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - The monthly spread structure maintains a C - structure. The price decline of the delivery - month contract is more obvious, and there are few changes in the structure except for the delivery - month contract [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and in Shandong, it is around 817. The price at which buyers are willing to take delivery, calculated at a 20 - point discount on the spot price, is around 782. The current price is within a reasonable range [24]. 4.2 Import Profit - In Shandong, imports of 3.9/5.9 - meter medium - grade A logs continue to incur losses, and the losses deepen after the spot price drop. In the Yangtze River Delta region, the profit of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs is also negative but better than in Shandong [25]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From September 13th to 22nd, 9 ships are expected to arrive (- 2), with a total cargo volume of 328,000 cubic meters (- 90,000). - Based on the current daily outbound volume, significant inventory reduction is expected next week, continuing the seasonal inventory - reduction trend. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume is 61,200 cubic meters (- 800), showing a slight weakening trend. Whether the demand weakening will continue needs further observation. The reduction of national subsidies may reduce support for pallets, and the continuous decline of the second - hand housing market since July is not a positive sign for the furniture market. The real - estate sector remains weak [32]. - On the supply side, with the decline in CFR quotes, the possibility of continuous high shipping volume is low. Supply and demand are expected to remain in a weak balance [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The bond market may maintain a weak and volatile trend without a positive statement from the central bank. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures showed a volatile intraday trend, with long - term varieties closing higher. The short - end yield of spot bonds increased, while the long - end yield decreased. The open - market had a net injection of 4.17 billion, and the funding situation was stable, with DR001 around 1.36% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the current week was 263,000, rising to a nearly four - year high. The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [2] - The weighted winning bid rates for the 2 - year and 7 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.44% and 1.78% respectively, and the marginal winning bid rates were 1.47% and 1.81% respectively [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market reached a new high and then declined today, but the bond market was hardly affected, and long - term bonds showed a weak rebound. The central bank continued to inject funds in the open - market, and the funding situation was stable. The issuance of 2Y and 7Y Treasury bonds in the primary market was acceptable. The new 2Y bonds may become the CTD of TS2512 in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the futures price will be under pressure. Currently, the market's expectation for the central bank to restart bond purchases has increased, but with the acceptable performance of the primary market, the central bank may not be in a hurry to act [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - TS2512 closed at 102.364, down 0.042 from the previous day; TF2512 closed at 105.58, down 0.01; T2512 closed at 107.68, up 0.035; TL2512 closed at 115.16, up 0.33 [4] - TS contract positions decreased by 1,839 to 70,916; TF contract positions decreased by 10,207 to 136,763; T contract positions decreased by 2,661 to 231,546; TL contract positions increased by 3,489 to 160,648 [4] - TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.035 to - 0.053; TF basis (CTD) increased by 0.0101 to 0.0401; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.039 to 0.3793; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1874 to 0.3058 [4] - TS main contract trading volume decreased by 772 to 34,239; TF main contract trading volume decreased by 11,105 to 71,456; T main contract trading volume decreased by 22,253 to 103,800; TL main contract trading volume decreased by 56,563 to 150,180 [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose 0.57 points, a gain of 0.02%. The most influential varieties were gold and silver, with the gold variety index up 2.35% and contributing 0.17%, and the silver variety index up 2.31% and contributing 0.14%. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 16.45 points, a decline of -0.46%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and natural rubber, with the crude oil variety index contributing -0.19% and the natural rubber variety index contributing -0.15%. The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with the most influential variety being iron ore, contributing 0.21%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 20.99 points, a decrease of -1.26%. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing -0.27%. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 7.14 points, a decline of -0.65%. The most influential variety was palm oil, contributing -0.32% [1][2]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Weekly Data Overview - **Comprehensive Index (NHCI)**: Closed at 2540.08 this week, up 0.57 points or 0.02% from last week [3]. - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Closed at 1356.24, up 30.99 points or 2.34% [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (NHII)**: Closed at 3596.01, down 16.45 points or -0.46% [3]. - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Closed at 6402.98, up 20.67 points or 0.32% [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Closed at 1641.37, down 20.99 points or -1.26% [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNFI)**: Closed at 1700.91, up 5.96 points or 0.35% [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Closed at 2533.40, down 0.16 points or -0.01% [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Closed at 1092.71, down 7.14 points or -0.65% [3]. - **Mini Comprehensive Index (NHCIMi)**: Closed at 1186.12, down 3.22 points or -0.27% [3]. - **Energy Index (NHEI)**: Closed at 1041.11, down 9.18 points or -0.87% [3]. - **Petrochemical Index (NHPCI)**: Closed at 928.44, down 11.69 points or -1.24% [3]. - **Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Closed at 1003.47, down 13.37 points or -1.31% [3]. - **Black Raw Materials Index (NHFMI)**: Closed at 1061.21, up 3.05 points or 0.29% [3]. - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Closed at 731.80, down 4.36 points or -0.59% [3]. - **Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI)**: Closed at 1266.02, down 9.73 points or -0.76% [3]. - **Economic Crops Index (NHAECI)**: Closed at 904.79, down 1.09 points or -0.12% [3]. 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua variety indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and position indicators. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the comprehensive index is 0.534, up 0.012084937 from last week [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to Index Fluctuation - The report shows the average position, month - on - month increase, and position share of various futures varieties. For instance, the average position of soybean meal is 4,190,794 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05% and a position share of 10.82% [9]. 3.4 Contribution of Major Varieties in Each Index - **Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties are crude oil and natural rubber, with contributions of -0.19% and -0.15% respectively [10]. - **Metal Index**: The most influential varieties are iron ore, aluminum, and copper, with contributions of 0.21%, 0.21%, and 0.20% respectively [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Index**: The most influential variety is crude oil, contributing -0.27% [2]. - **Agricultural Products Index**: The most influential variety is palm oil, contributing -0.32% [2][10]. - **Black Index**: The most influential varieties are coke, rebar, and ferrosilicon, with contributions of -0.24%, -0.18%, and -0.01% respectively [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: The most influential varieties are aluminum, copper, and zinc, with contributions of 0.37%, 0.35%, and 0.10% respectively [11].

股指期货日报 2025年9月12日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注国内外宏观信息变量，预计股市振幅扩大 市场回顾 今日股指小幅缩量，大小盘涨跌不一，小盘指数偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.57%。从资金面来 看，两市成交额回升832.07亿元。期指方面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC放量上涨，IM缩量上涨。 重要资讯 1、财政部部长蓝佛安表示，财政与货币政策协同，形成政策合力。今年专门发行5000亿元特别国债，为大 型商业银行注入资本金，预计可撬动信贷投放约6万亿元。 核心观点 今日股指先涨后跌，盘中多空博弈剧烈，收盘大盘指数回落，小盘指数上涨。盘前信息，昨日晚间公布美国 CPI数据基本符合预期，但截至9月6日当周，初请失业金人数大幅高于市场预期，叠加PPI低于预期影响以及 甲骨文热度仍在，美股大涨，今日开盘A股也受提振，以沪深300为代表突破前高，同时行业层面有色金属与 科技领涨。不过一方面前高附近预计A股存在一定的抛压，另一方面昨日上行幅度较大，盘间市场进一步上行 势能弱化。下周股市将围绕国内8月金融数据、经济运行数据以及美联储FOMC议息 ...

股指期货热点 宏观预期改善延续 ——基于近期股汇双强分析 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月12日 摘要：近期国内金融市场发生较大变化，伴随着股市接连创新高，美元兑人民币汇率走势也自8月底开启一轮 大幅升值。我们分析认为8月以来人民币大幅升值一定程度受A股持续上涨，带来的正反馈，使得人民币走势 脱离美元指数走势振幅扩大，股市亦受人民币升值带来的资金支撑以及情绪提振，一定程度超预期趋势向 上。股汇互相"成就"，更深层次背后，展现的是国内经济的相对优势以及流动性宽松预期升温。在国内经 济基本面维稳，美国经济基本面相对存在更多不确定扰动项，国内货币政策基调维持适度宽松，外部美联储 降息进一步提供宽松空间的背景之下，股市交易可继续维持多头思维。主要风险在于关税政策意外恶化，带 来国内经济预期明显转向。 1、股汇双强，走势双双显现"异常"。 近期国内金融市场发生较大变化。股市接连创新高，以沪深300指数为代表突破4500，在经济本面数据仍相对 平淡，政策未出现去年"924"类似的重磅加码情形的背景之下，股指走势整体突破去年前高，两市成交额最 高站上三万亿元。而汇率 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - The implementation of domestic service - consumption stimulus policies may form a synergistic effect with commodity - consumption boosting measures to support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, but the actual effect needs further observation. Overseas, the CPI data rebounded in August, and the weakening of the US employment market has increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed's interest rate dot - plot will be the focus of the market [1]. - The US dollar index is in a volatile range. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy near the 7.10 mark [2][3]. Stock Index - The sentiment and capital situation of the stock index have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. However, if the stock index continues to rise rapidly, there will be a need for adjustment due to over - heated sentiment [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded due to rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases. The central bank's attitude needs to be closely watched, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4][5]. Shipping - The new weekly opening quotes of Maersk are lower than the previous values, and CMA CGM and Evergreen have also followed up and lowered their quotes for European routes, which is likely to drive down the futures price valuation. It is recommended to operate with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a high - level shock. In the medium and long term, they may be bullish. In the short term, gold and silver are in a high - level consolidation. It is advisable to maintain the idea of buying on dips [9][11]. Copper - US inflation - related data are lower than expected, which increases the expectation of interest rate cuts and causes the copper price to strengthen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro environment is favorable, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support, and it is advisable to consider arbitrage operations [13][14][15]. Zinc - In the short term, the zinc price is in a bottom - strengthening shock. It is advisable to continue to observe the LME inventory approaching the extreme value or sell out - of - the - money put options [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price has risen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand provides support for the lithium - carbonate price, and short - term supply - side disturbances do not change the fundamental support logic [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and investors are advised to be cautious [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money call options or using a double - selling strategy [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply of crude steel has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased. The steel inventory pressure is large, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [26][27]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is difficult to rise unilaterally. It is recommended to take profit on long positions [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected. The coal - coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends mainly follow the coking - coal price. It is recommended to lightly try long positions on the main contracts, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase dominates the oil - price trend. It is recommended to short on rallies [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weakened [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. It is recommended to expand the processing margin below 260 and try to lay out long positions on TA01 below 4650 [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to short on rallies [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak. It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and further demand increase signals need to be awaited [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow the cost - end fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the short term, and styrene is in a shock state and it is advisable to wait and see [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to wait to short the cracking spread [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It is recommended to wait to go long on the cracking spread [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, but the inventory is improving. It is advisable to try long positions after the crude - oil price stabilizes [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high in the medium and long term. The supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to cost and supply expectations [53]. Glass - The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase. The market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and demand factors [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot price is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [55][56]. Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57]. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic service - consumption stimulus policies are expected to be introduced, and overseas, the US employment market is weakening, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Different strategies are recommended for export and import enterprises [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The sentiment and capital situation have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the central bank's attitude is the focus. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. Shipping - Maersk's new quotes and the follow - up actions of other shipping companies drive down the futures price valuation. A quick - in - and - quick - out strategy is recommended [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - The inflation data are in line with expectations, and the employment market is cooling. Precious metals are in a high - level shock, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][11]. Copper - US inflation data increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the copper price strengthens slightly. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro and fundamental factors are favorable, but investors should be cautious. For alumina, the supply is excessive. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support [13][14][15]. Zinc - The supply is in excess, and the demand is average. The short - term trend is a bottom - strengthening shock [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price rises slightly. Selling out - of - the money put options is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and short - term supply disturbances do not change the fundamentals [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The short - term sentiment is supported, but the long - term industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policies [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider option - selling strategies [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The crude - steel supply has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Iron Ore - The price is difficult to rise unilaterally due to weak demand. Taking profit on long positions is recommended [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected, and the market is in a wide - range shock in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends follow coking coal. Lightly trying long positions is recommended, but beware of risks [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase leads to a decline in oil prices. A short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend, with controllable supply and slightly weakened demand [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. Processing - margin expansion and long - position layout strategies are recommended [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and look for short - on - rallies opportunities [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak, and it is in a shock pattern, awaiting demand increase signals [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow cost fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene is in a shock state [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows cost fluctuations. Waiting to short the cracking spread is recommended [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Waiting to go long on the cracking spread is recommended [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, and the inventory is improving. Trying long positions after crude - oil price stabilization is advisable [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. Short - term long positions can be considered [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high, and the supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [53]. Glass - The supply is stable or slightly increasing, and the market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Spot rhythm and demand need to be watched [55][56]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57].