Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Considering the limited potential for a weak rebound, some long positions can be taken profit [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures continued to rebound, with all contracts closing higher and long - term varieties seeing larger gains. There were 28 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 56.85 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, and the DR001 rate rose to 1.41% [1] 2. Intraday News - Trump expects the Fed to "significantly cut interest rates" this week [2] - In August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year cumulatively, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year cumulatively, industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Although some A - share indices reached new highs today, the bond market basically shook off the influence of the stock market. The economic data announced in the morning showed that investment and consumption continued to slow down, and the boosting effect of the "two new" policies weakened. The real estate market is still bottom - seeking, and the decline in sales and new construction has not converged. The fundamentals determine that there is a ceiling for interest rates, but the current market trading sentiment is still weak, and long - term interest rates rose again after the futures market closed. In addition, the funding situation has tightened again due to the tax period, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection intensity in the next few days [2] 4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Changes**: The prices of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512 on September 15, 2025, were 102.368, 105.66, 107.84, and 115.48 respectively, with daily increases of 0.004, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Position Changes**: The positions of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were 72,691, 135,920, 236,190, and 162,580 hands respectively, with changes of + 1,775, - 843, + 4,644, and + 1,932 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Basis Changes**: The bases (CTD) of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were - 0.0291, 0.0708, 0.4266, and 0.554 respectively, with changes of 0.0239, 0.0307, 0.0473, and 0.2482 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Trading Volume Changes**: The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts on September 15, 2025, were 24,122, 54,025, 94,600, and 111,024 hands respectively, with decreases of 10,117, 17,431, 9,200, and 39,156 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] 5. Graphical Data - The report also includes graphical data on the basis and IRR of T, TL, TF, and TS main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing interest rates and policy interest rates, exchange financing interest rates, fund stratification, US Treasury bond yield trends, and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest contradiction in the methanol market lies in the ports. Although the reverse flow window from ports to the inland is open due to the strong olefin procurement sentiment in the inland, port pressure remains high. The high shipment volume from Iran and non - Iranian regions makes it difficult to resolve the contradiction for the 01 contract. Methanol may face a short - term oscillating pattern. Considering downstream inventory and port pressure, it is recommended to reduce long positions and continue to hold short put options [4]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. 3. Specific Summaries Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a methanol price decline, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a put - option hedging ratio of 50% and a call - option entry interval of 45 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent an increase in procurement costs due to a methanol price rise, they can buy methanol futures (MA2601) at present to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 2450 - 2550. They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry interval of 20 - 25 [3].

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/09/15 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2250-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心尿素价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment dominates the short - term trend of rubber prices, while supply - demand fundamentals provide support and resistance. The cost support remains strong due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas. The rubber sentiment has subsided, and the decline in crude oil prices has dragged down the rubber sector. Long - term demand requires continuous and effective macro - policy incentives, and export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of Indonesian standard rubber is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of the NR2510 contract is not large. In the long - term, the supply of domestic full - latex is limited, and the RU warehouse receipts are in a seasonal low. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad also affects the rubber market, and there are risks such as US tariff policies and EU anti - dumping investigations [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect rubber prices. Weather in production areas affects cost support, and long - term demand depends on macro - policies. Export growth has risks [1]. - Near - term trading: 1 - 7 months, Indonesian standard rubber imports increased by about 8% year - on - year, and the price difference between NR contracts and other standard products may remain in the short term [3]. - Long - term trading: Domestic production area weather disturbances lead to slow growth of full - latex raw materials. RU warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the focus is on the remaining tapping window this year. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad has both positive and negative impacts, and there are risks [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price range: The reference oscillation range of RU2601 in the next week is 15700 - 16100; that of NR2511 is 12500 - 13000. The trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation [11]. - Strategy suggestions: In the wide - range oscillation, it is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis. For basis, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies, specific operations and entry points are provided [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The monthly price range of rubber RU is 15800 - 16300, and that of 20 - number rubber NR is 12700 - 13200 [13]. - Risk management strategies: Different strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding trading directions, hedging ratios, and entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerned Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive information: Heavy - truck sales continued to grow. In 2025, from January to August, China's heavy - truck cumulative sales increased by about 13% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12.6% respectively, and automobile exports increased by 13.7%. There is a high probability of La Nina phenomenon in the fourth quarter, which may affect Southeast Asian production areas [14]. - Negative information: Indonesian standard rubber exports increased. Malaysia's rubber subsidies stabilized supply. Global natural rubber production and consumption had different trends in July. In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased [15]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Tropical disturbances are generated in the South China Sea, and Typhoon "Mina" may affect China's Taiwan to Guangdong area. Pay attention to the rainfall in Thailand in September. This week is a key period for central banks around the world to announce policy interest rates, especially the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18 [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The rubber price fluctuated last week, and the price center of the RU01 contract remained around 15900, and that of the NR11 contract was around 12700. Spot prices fell, and the basis of Thai standard, Indonesian standard, and NR was at a seasonal high. The RU month - spread changed little, and the NR term structure changed significantly [18][22][26]. - Foreign market: The foreign market trend was similar to the domestic one, and the exchange rate affected the pricing of foreign rubber. The term structure of Japanese RSS3 changed, and Singapore TRES20 maintained a contango structure [29][31]. - Virtual - to - physical ratio and sentiment indicators: The bullish sentiment of rubber fluctuated. The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was moderate, and the NR ratio was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [33]. - Internal - external price difference tracking: The internal - external price differences of RU and NR were differentiated. The price difference between RU and Japanese RSS3 was high but narrowed. The supply of NR and Singapore 20 - number rubber was expected to be loose, and the exchange rate affected the price difference [36]. - Variety price difference analysis: The deep - shallow price difference of dry rubber continued to expand. The price difference between natural and synthetic rubber increased [40][47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw material cost: Domestic raw material prices rose and fell. In Hainan, glue prices decreased slightly, and cup - glue prices increased slightly. In Yunnan, glue prices remained high. In Thailand, the water - cup price difference decreased [50]. - Processing profit: The delivery profit of domestic full - latex in Yunnan was low, and the profit of TSR9710 was good. The processing profit of imported smoked sheets increased slightly, while the profits of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber were negative [56][58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main - producing country output: Thailand's output decreased in July. Indonesia's output may decrease slightly in August. Malaysia's output decreased year - on - year, and Vietnam's output is expected to increase. India's output was at a low level [60]. - Import situation: In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased. From Thailand, the import of Thai standard increased, and Thai mixed decreased. Indonesian imports increased in July, and exports may remain growing in August [62]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Main - producing country total demand: In July, China's natural rubber consumption was stable year - on - year. The demand in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased, while that in Vietnam and India increased. China's rubber demand and exports are expected to remain strong, but international trade situations need attention [70]. - Tire production and sales: The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased, and the inventory decreased slowly. Tire exports increased, but the average export price decreased. The downstream inventory is high, and short - term production and sales are stable, but long - term risks exist [73]. - Replacement demand: China's logistics industry is stable, and the replacement demand is expected to be stable. However, long - term fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [78]. - Supporting demand: Last week, domestic passenger car wholesale sales decreased. China's heavy - truck sales were strong in the first half of the year, and the supporting demand is expected to be resilient. Automobile exports increased significantly in August [80]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures inventory: RU warehouse receipts decreased rapidly, and NR warehouse receipts increased steadily [84]. - Social inventory: The domestic dry - rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The light - colored rubber inventory continued to decrease, and the dark - colored rubber inventory also decreased slightly. The inventory in Yunnan's non - standard rubber increased [87].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the performance of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in different economic cycles and their historical trends from 2005 to 2024. It also explores the relationship between the ratio of upstream and downstream indices and the A - share market, finding that the correlation reversed around 2015 due to economic structure transformation, policy regulation, and changes in the industry competition pattern. The current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead, which helps in stock index style selection and may create medium - to - long - term arbitrage opportunities [1][18][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Different Economic States and Industry Performance - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry includes raw materials, energy, and mining. It performs best in the economic recovery stage, with the order of performance being economic recovery > economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the recovery stage, it rebounds first due to increased demand for raw materials and energy, rising commodity prices, and positive market expectations. In the expansion stage, demand grows, but high raw material prices may lead to policy regulation. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and profits fluctuate. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [3]. - **Midstream Industry**: Comprising manufacturing and related sectors, it performs strongest in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic recovery > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the expansion stage, it benefits from increased manufacturing orders and high capacity utilization. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and costs rise. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline significantly [5]. - **Downstream Industry**: Including consumer goods and services, it performs best in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession > economic recovery. In the expansion stage, consumer demand is strong, and optional consumer goods perform better. In the stagflation stage, inflation affects consumption, but essential consumer goods are relatively stable. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [6]. 3.2 Historical Review of Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream Trends - **2005 - 2007 (Upstream Explosion)**: The stock market rose overall, with the style being upstream > midstream > downstream. The economic fundamentals first expanded and then contracted. Upstream industries, represented by coal and non - ferrous metals, rose more than five times due to factors such as global commodity bull markets and China's industrialization. Midstream industries, like machinery, benefited from the real - estate market. Downstream industries were relatively weak due to lagging resident income growth [10]. - **2008 - 2009 (Full - Industry Chain Collapse and Policy Rescue)**: The stock market was weak, with the style being downstream (defensive) > midstream > upstream. Affected by the financial crisis, the upstream industry declined sharply, the midstream was supported by falling raw material prices and government investment, and the downstream rebounded first due to policy support [14]. - **2010 - 2015 (Midstream Upgrade and Downstream Consumption Rise)**: The stock market had a "V" - shaped trend, with the style being downstream > midstream > upstream. The economy was in a transformation stage. The upstream was affected by over - capacity, the midstream benefited from falling raw material prices and the development of high - end manufacturing, and the downstream reached its peak due to industry upgrades, policy support, and a loose financial environment [15]. - **2016 - 2020 (Supply - Side Reform and Consumption Differentiation)**: The stock market fluctuated and generally rose, with the style being upstream (2016 - 2017) > downstream > midstream. Supply - side reform led to a significant increase in upstream profits from 2016 - 2017. The midstream was affected by trade frictions and supply - side reform, and the downstream benefited from global liquidity and the "drinking and medicine - taking" market during the epidemic [15][16]. - **2021 - 2024 (Carbon Neutrality and Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration)**: The stock market declined, with the style being upstream (2021) > midstream (2022 - 2023) > downstream. The upstream was boosted by new energy demand in 2021. The midstream was affected by geopolitical conflicts and the epidemic but was supported by the development of photovoltaic and energy - storage industries. The downstream was affected by the epidemic and the real - estate downturn [17]. - **Summary**: Midstream performance is usually in the middle, and the upstream and downstream show obvious differentiation. Upstream indices rise first in the economic recovery, followed by the midstream, and finally the downstream. In the economic decline, the downstream has some defensive properties. Upstream is sensitive to supply - side policies, downstream to demand - side policies, and midstream is passively affected by events and policies [17]. 3.3 Industry Comparison and A - Share Market Review - The ratio of the upstream index to the downstream index is expected to be positively correlated with the A - share market. However, the correlation reversed around 2015. Before 2015, the upstream was more elastic, and the ratio was positively correlated with the A - share market. After 2015, the downstream became more elastic due to economic transformation, policy regulation, and other factors. Despite the change, the upward trend of the ratio still has indicative significance, and the current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead [18][20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. As time progresses, it is approaching the end of the adjustment wave, and the overall view is bullish. In specific sectors, the outlook for oilseeds and fats is bullish, while that for chemicals is bearish [2][3][5] - In addition to industrial products, agricultural products have also stabilized recently. The downward driving force of agricultural products has further weakened, but attention should be paid to the risk of soybean meal prices caused by uncertain tariffs [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - From August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. During this period, varieties with weak fundamentals and low basis, such as glass, soda ash, PVC, urea, and crude oil, have adjusted and led the decline, while polysilicon and coking coal have maintained horizontal consolidation. As the adjustment wave nears its end, these varieties will choose a direction [4] - Agricultural products have stabilized. The USDA supply - demand report on September 12th showed a slight increase in the US soybean ending inventory, but it could not drive the market lower. The path of least resistance for US soybeans is no longer downward, and there is little point in short - selling domestic soybean meal and oil varieties. The risk lies in tariffs [4] 3.2 Capital Flow - The total capital flow is 10.312 billion. Among different sectors, precious metals have a capital flow of 2.421 billion, non - ferrous metals have - 0.143 billion, black metals have 0.447 billion, energy has 0.83 billion, chemicals have 0.265 billion, feed and breeding have 0.479 billion, oilseeds and fats have 0.06 billion, and soft commodities have 0.065 billion [8] 3.3 Weekly Data of Different Sectors - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, basis difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [8] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data are provided for energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [10] - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, including price percentile, inventory percentile, etc. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Financial Futures - Domestic policies will focus more on the livelihood sector to address income - distribution imbalances and stimulate effective demand. The economy is marginally recovering, but government support is still needed. Overseas, US inflation remains resilient, and the market is concerned about the US employment market. The Fed's decision is crucial [1]. - The US dollar index shows signs of downward break - out. The short - term trend of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate depends on internal and external factors. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern around 7.1 [2]. - For the stock index, the adjustment continues, and the market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [4]. - The bond market may have a certain downward space in yield this week, but the space may be limited. The progress of Sino - US talks may affect both the stock and bond markets [6]. - For the container shipping market, the SCFI European line continues to decline, and the short - term futures price is likely to maintain a downward trend. It is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions carefully [10]. Base Metals - Copper is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease, and the supply - demand situation is weak on both sides [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile. The key to aluminum prices is inventory, alumina has a supply - surplus problem, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum [12][13][15]. - Zinc is expected to be volatile. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile with bottom support. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy may decrease, and the supply is tight in the short term [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize. Policy support may extend the peak season, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [19]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon is expected to have limited upward space and may be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating [24]. - Polysilicon is expected to be volatile. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [25]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. The price is pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - For steel products, the market is expected to be in a volatile consolidation pattern. The fundamentals are under pressure, but macro expectations and pre - holiday demand provide some support [29]. - Iron ore prices are short - term strong but limited by steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to be lightly long at certain price levels. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG is supported by the overseas market. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weak [37]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [39]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions. The port pressure is large, and the supply from Iran is increasing [41]. - PP is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support [45]. - PE is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations. The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are weakly trending. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US government's "shutdown" risk, and China's August social financing and loan data [1]. - The core logic is that domestic policies will focus on the livelihood sector, the economy is marginally recovering, and overseas inflation and employment are key concerns [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The key factors affecting the exchange rate are the Fed's decision and internal and external factors in China [1][2]. - The short - term trend of the exchange rate depends on the interaction of internal and external factors, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index showed a slight volume contraction, with different performances between large and small - cap stocks. The market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates [4]. - It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the Fed's decision and Sino - US economic and trade talks are important [6]. Bond Market - The bond market adjusted last week due to the regulations on public fund redemption fees. The fundamentals show weak loan demand, and the central bank's measures support the capital market [6][7]. - The yield may decline this week, but the space is limited. The progress of Sino - US talks is a key factor [6]. Container Shipping - The previous trading day's container shipping index (European line) futures declined. The spot market prices of major shipping companies have changed [7][8]. - The short - term futures price is likely to decline, and it is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver's market performance last week was strong, with changes in inventory and fund positions. The market is focused on the Fed's decision, personnel adjustment, and bond - market risks [10]. - It is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Base Metals - Copper: The price increased last week due to the US inflation data. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and it is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton [11]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum increased, alumina decreased, and cast aluminum alloy increased. The key factors are the Fed's decision, seasonal demand, and scrap aluminum supply [12][13][15]. - Zinc: The price was slightly up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The prices were up slightly. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin: The price increased slightly. It is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: The futures price declined last week. The supply and demand situation in the lithium battery industry chain has changed, and policy support may stabilize the price [19][20]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The futures price was slightly down. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating, so the upward space is limited [22][24]. - Polysilicon: The futures price declined. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [23][25]. - Lead: The price increased. The price was pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - Steel products: The price showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The supply has recovered, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile [28][29]. - Iron ore: The price is short - term strong. The supply is tightening in the short term, and the demand is recovering, but it is limited by steel demand and steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke: The price is affected by supply and demand changes. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: The prices were slightly up and down. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [32][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The price was up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG: The price was down. The overseas market provides support, and the domestic supply is controllable, with slightly weak demand [35][37]. - PX - TA: The price is volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [38][39]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol: The price was down. It is recommended to reduce long positions due to port pressure and increasing Iranian supply [41]. - PP: The price was down. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support, so it is expected to be oscillating [45]. - PE: The price was down. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow, so it is expected to be oscillating [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices were down. They follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the fundamentals are weak, so it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil: The price follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt: The price was down. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The prices were down. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent oil prices have been fluctuating weakly. The core reason is that the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market has become a reality, overshadowing recent geopolitical disturbances. The oversupply pressure mainly stems from the continuous production increase of global oil - producing entities on the supply side, while the demand side lacks support, and crude oil demand is about to peak and decline. Although macro and geopolitical factors have some influence, they are now secondary. The continuous acceleration of OPEC+'s production - increasing actions is the core driver determining the oil price direction, and supply pressure dominates the market. It is still recommended to sell high and pay attention to the rhythm and participate cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Trends**: The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.37%, at $62.60 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.18%; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.77%, at $66.88 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.11% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: As of the week ending September 9, the speculative net short position of WTI crude oil futures increased by 14,840 lots to 24,905 lots; the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 41,476 lots to 209,578 lots. The speculative net long position of gasoline futures increased by 8,965 lots to 107,376 lots. As of September 12, the open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,024 lots, a week - on - week increase of 14,216 lots compared to September 5 [10]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: On Friday (September 12), the price spread between WTI and Brent was - $4.3 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 per barrel compared to last Friday (September 5); the price spread between SC and WTI was $4.59 per barrel, a decrease of $1.11 per barrel compared to last Friday; the price spread between SC and Brent was $0.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.78 per barrel compared to last Friday [11]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Weak and fluctuating [12]. - **Arbitrage**: The seasonal spread of gasoline cracking weakens, while that of diesel cracking is strong [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day. From September 6 to 12, the number of active US oil rigs was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 rigs [23]. - **Demand**: From August 30 to September 5, the crude oil input of US refineries was 16.818 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [23]. - **Imports and Exports**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil exports were 2.745 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.139 million barrels per day; petroleum product exports were 7.195 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 barrels per day. From August 26 to September 1, the seaborne crude oil exports in the Middle East were 18.4189 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 19.77%; this week, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports were 2.9933 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 24.82% [23]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,939 thousand barrels; the total strategic petroleum inventory was 405,224 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514 thousand barrels; the total oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23,857 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 365 thousand barrels. As of September 10, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 110.14, a week - on - week increase of 1.83%; the proportion of storage capacity to total storage capacity was 60.16%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall supply of coking coal is becoming more abundant with the resumption of mines after the military parade - related restrictions, active customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the arrival of overseas coal. The market is pessimistic about the future, with rumors of a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a decrease in coking enterprises' willingness to stockpile coking coal and a decline in spot prices [2]. - Although there is pressure to cut prices in the short term, coking enterprises have high enthusiasm to resume production after the lifting of restrictions, and the supply - demand gap for coke is narrowing. The high inventory of steel products needs time to be digested, and the weak reality will limit the rebound of coal - coke prices [2]. - In the long - term, "anti - involution" is the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market's expectation has improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Inventory transfer before the National Day may improve the supply - demand structure of coal - coke, so coking coal is not recommended as a short - position variety in the black market [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply side**: The supply of coking coal is increasing, with mines resuming production, high - level coal shipments, and strong import supply. Coking enterprises are cautious about replenishing coking coal due to the expected price cut of coke, resulting in poor sales and price loosening of coking coal [2][4]. - **Demand side**: The social inventory of five major steel products is accumulating against the season, and the immediate profit of steel products is deteriorating. The second - round price cut for coke has officially started. The total supply of steel products remains high, and high inventory needs time to be digested [2][4]. - **Future outlook**: There are still profits in most steel products except for rebar in the blast furnace process, and blast furnace plants are reluctant to cut production. After the military parade, some electric - arc furnace plants are resuming production, while others are reducing or stopping production due to losses. The downstream replenishment before the National Day, the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline should be monitored [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. The oscillation range of JM2601 is 1060 - 1260, and that of J2601 is 1510 - 1750 [18]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Purchase cumulative options for JM2601 with an observation period of 30 days and a knock - in and knock - out range of (1075, 1275); short the coking profit on the futures market at an entry range of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55); conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal at an entry point of (- 50, - 40) [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The price range of coking coal is 1060 - 1260, and that of coke is 1510 - 1750 [19]. - **Risk management strategies**: For inventory hedging, short the J2601 contract of coke; for procurement management, long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [20][22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Supply and inventory data**: The production of coking coal and coke is generally increasing, while the inventory of coking coal is decreasing, and the inventory of coke is increasing [22]. - **Price data**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally declined, and the import profits of some coal types have changed [23]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are policies indicating more active macro - policies and efforts to promote economic growth [26]. - **Negative information**: Steel mills have cut the price of coke, and the total inventory of steel products has increased, with high social inventory pressure [26][27]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's August social retail sales year - on - year and industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year on September 15th. Also, pay attention to the resumption progress of hot metal, the production - cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces, the verification of peak - season demand, the inventory - accumulation speed of finished products, and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [27]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The double - coke futures market is oscillating, with the 20 - day moving average forming pressure. The trading volume is shrinking, but the open interest of the main coking coal contract remains around 700,000 lots, indicating a large divergence between bulls and bears. The short - term lacks a clear directional driver [27]. - **Capital movement**: The net short - position of key coking coal seats first increased and then decreased, and there was a reduction in long - positions for coke, suggesting that the main capital is cautiously bearish but not overly pessimistic about the double - coke market [28]. - **Month - spread structure**: The coal - coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure, indicating high near - term pressure and support for far - month prices from the "anti - involution" expectation. There is no significant change in the month - spread this week [33]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of coking coal is mainly oscillating, and the basis of coke has narrowed due to the implementation of the spot price cut. There is no definite spot - futures positive - spread opportunity in the short term [39]. - **Spread structure**: The coking profit on the futures market continues to fluctuate at a low level. The strategy of shorting the coking profit on the futures market at high prices is maintained [42]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking - The first - round price cut for coke has been fully implemented, the cost of coal for coking has slightly decreased, and the immediate coking profit has declined from a high level. The blast - furnace profit has slightly improved, but rebar in the blast - furnace process has serious losses, and and and electric - furnace, and the electric - arc furnace is in a serious loss situation [44]. - The second - round price cut for coke started on September 12th and is expected to be implemented next week, and the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink [44]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered since June, and the customs - clearance enthusiasm at ports has significantly increased, with the import of Mongolian coal expected to accelerate. Tracking the theoretical import profit of overseas coal can predict the coking coal import volume in the next month, and it is inferred that there will be some pressure on the arrival of coking coal [48][51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The production of coking coal is expected to increase, with an estimated weekly average output of 9.77 million tons next week and 9.8 million tons in the week of September 20th. The import volume of coking coal is also expected to rise, with a net import of about 9.85 million tons in August and a weekly average net import of about 2.2 - 2.23 million tons in September [67]. - The production of coke is expected to recover rapidly, with a weekly output of 7.95 million tons next week and 7.98 million tons in the week of September 20th [67]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - The daily average hot - metal output is expected to be 2.4 million tons next week, basically the same as this week [73]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Coking coal**: After the lifting of restrictions, domestic mines are expected to resume production quickly. Coking coal maintains a tight supply - demand balance, with an immediate balance of 2.3803 million tons of hot - metal [75]. - **Coke**: The immediate coking profit is good, and coking enterprises have strong enthusiasm to resume production. The supply - demand gap is narrowing rapidly. The second - round price cut has been initiated, and the spot price of coke is still under pressure in the short term, but downstream replenishment before the National Day provides some support, making the third - round price cut more difficult [75].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].