*近端交易逻辑 1.生猪存栏较高，猪企出栏压力较大 南华期货生猪产业周报 ——远月的梦想近月的重拳 戴鸿绪 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021819 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 本周生猪期价震荡磨底，当前猪价整体估值偏低，本周持仓量大幅下降，预计博弈逐步降低。近月博弈依旧 关注二育，今年过年时节较晚，二育尚存短补窗口。 1.1 核心矛盾 政策端扰动频出，生猪远月供给或受到影响。长周期战略性可以看多，但中短期依旧以基本面为主。部分省 市开启收储政策，虽然收储量有限，但体现了当下上层对物价调控的决心，可以说政策底已经显现，但市场 底可能还需要一轮生产周期去磨底。 能繁母猪存栏数（双口径） source： 南华研究,wind 万头 能繁殖母猪存栏数（钢联）(右轴) 能繁母猪存栏（农业农村部） 万头 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 475 500 525 550 575 3800 4000 4200 4400 猪粮比. source： 南华研究,同花顺 - 猪粮比：中国（周） 22/12 23/06 23/12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The price of PG mostly follows the fluctuations of external propane and crude oil. In the short term, the external market is tight, but there is still supply pressure in the medium to long term. The domestic market is relatively stronger than the external market and crude oil, which is related to the low domestic arrivals and strong chemical demand. The near - term trading logic is supported by supply contraction and stable chemical demand, but the overall valuation is high. The long - term trading outlook is affected by supply and demand factors in different regions [2][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is affected by supply surplus pressure and geopolitical issues, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend this week [2]. - The CP prices in December are in line with expectations, with propane at $495/ton (+20) and butane at $485/ton (+25) [2]. - US propane demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, better than the same period last year, but the inventory reduction is not large [2]. - The domestic fundamentals are relatively stable, with low arrivals this week, matching the shipments from the Middle East and the US to China. Chemical demand remains strong in the short term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to be maintained at 70% - 75% [2]. - There are many purchase requests in the external market recently, with the FEI premium strengthening to $30 and the CP premium slightly dropping to $25 [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to oscillate, with the PG01 price range at 4000 - 4500 [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, the futures price declined with the overall chemical market, while the spot price rose slightly, leading to a stronger basis [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Sell the spread when the spread is high [11]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the internal - external price spread, and wait and see on widening the PP/PG price ratio [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be 4000 - 4500, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 19.57% and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 24.83% [13]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fundamentals remain relatively strong, with continuous low arrivals and inventory reduction at ports. The external market is tight, and the FEI premium has risen to $30 [18]. - **Negative Information**: From the perspectives of internal - external price spread and PG/PP price ratio, the overall valuation is still not cheap [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Monitor - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The PG01 contract oscillated upward this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased slightly, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net short positions of a certain seat decreased slightly, while the net long positions of foreign capital increased slightly and those of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, the PG01 is in an oscillatory state, with resistance at 4400 - 4500 and support at around 4250 on the daily - line middle track [19]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The LPG term structure remains in a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 calendar spread at 79 yuan/ton (+3) [22]. - **External Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $524/ton (-13), with a premium of +30 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at $504/ton (+3), with a premium of +25 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at $375/ton (+19). The FEI swap declined slightly this week, but the premium strengthened, and the spot price remained stable. The MB price rose after the demand increased [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The FEI M1 - M2 spread was 13 dollars/ton (-6.75); the CP M1 - M2 spread was 0.5 dollars/ton (-0.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was 6.19 dollars/ton (+2.93) [32]. - **Regional Spread Tracking**: This week, FEI was in an oscillatory state, while MB and CP were relatively strong. The FEI - MB and FEI - CP spreads narrowed slightly. In addition, the spread between FEI and MOPJ decreased, improving the economic efficiency of FEI [35]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (-28), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+29). The profit fluctuations were not large [38]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 350 yuan/ton (+80); the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 505 yuan/ton (+47), and the PDH profit continued to be in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 62.50 yuan/ton (-5), and the isomerization profit was - 51 (+25). The alkylation oil profit was - 412 yuan/ton (+12), and the recent profit fluctuations were not large [41]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the external market price strengthened, while the domestic imported gas price oscillated relatively, leading to a weaker import profit [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply and Demand**: As the weather gets colder, the weekly demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, but the production is generally high, and the inventory has decreased slightly [49]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: From January to November, the US exported a total of 62,703 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%. Among them, the exports to China were 9,693 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [56]. - **Middle East Supply**: From January to November, the Middle East exported a total of 44,850 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Among them, the exports to India were 19,238 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%, and the exports to China were 16,833 kt, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In November, the domestic demand in the Middle East was strong, and the shipments were generally low [60]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to October, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and the LPG imports were 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and the demand and imports remain high [63]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious. Most of it is used for the chemical industry. From May to September, South Korea's LPG imports remained high. There was some re - export demand in May and June, and the propane cracking profit was better than that of naphtha from July to September, providing support for the cracking end. Currently, the propane cracking profit is still better than that of naphtha, and the imports are expected to remain relatively high. Some cracking maintenance has been extended to December, and the cracking cost - effectiveness of LPG has decreased. In November, South Korea's LPG imports increased slightly compared with October but remained at a relatively low level [70]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. As the weather gets colder, the imports are expected to increase. After restocking in August, the imports decreased in September, and the imports in August and September were neutral overall. The imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is about 1,000 kt [78]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In the case of high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but the overall external supply volume is not high. The import volume is not high according to the shipping data. Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreases, and combustion demand increases. The overall chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected. The overall inventory has decreased slightly, mainly at the port [82]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 74.66% (-0.88%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 56.11% (+1.12%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 52.20% (+1.25%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.72 tons (+0.18). The port arrivals this week are 55.8 (-10.2), the factory inventory is 15.74 tons (-0.12), and the port inventory is 274.59 tons (-20.79) [85]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Juzhengyuan is restarting. This week, Hebei Xinxinyuan, Ningbo Haode, and Bengu New Materials are still under maintenance. The internal - external price spread has narrowed [95][97]. - **MTBE Demand**: No specific new demand information is provided, but relevant seasonal data on the operating rate and price spread are presented [98]. - **Alkylation Oil Demand**: Puyang Shengyuan has resumed production, and Shandong Linfeng is still under maintenance [103]. - **Combustion Demand**: Seasonal data on the production - sales ratio in different regions are presented [108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market maintains a loose pattern, with the 03 contract expected to oscillate between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The market is affected by a generally loose fundamental situation and the weak trend of PP. Although the supply - demand gap has improved compared to October, enterprise inventories remain high. The continuous decline of PP prices and the significant compression of its price difference with propylene also suppress the propylene market [2][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" issue may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations, but there is no actual progress. The overall chemical sentiment was weak this week, with prices falling again after a slight rebound last week [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. Although the supply - demand difference changed little this week, spot prices remained stable due to the postponed restart of some devices. In the Shandong region, Hengtong restarted this week, and Binhua is expected to restart in mid - December, increasing the overall supply expectation [2]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk recently, with some PP devices entering maintenance, but overall PP operation remains at a high level, providing demand support while also suppressing the propylene market [2]. - The price of external propane at a low level rebounded with crude oil, and the premium has strengthened significantly recently. The calculated cost is around 6,250 - 6,500 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit continues to show losses. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the profit, but there are currently no more maintenance plans [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the PL03 price range between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The overall trend remains weakly oscillating. In the short term, it gets some support from the significant increase in costs, but the upward potential is limited. The negative feedback from the PDH end should be monitored, and the market is regarded as weak until more negative feedback emerges [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, due to the postponed restart of production, spot prices remained stable, while the futures market was affected by the overall chemical sentiment and the weak PP price, causing the basis to strengthen [17]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Consider reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 3 spread when the price is high [17]. - **Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the PP - PL spread when the price is low and wait and see; consider widening the PL/PG ratio and wait and see. The price difference between PP pellets and propylene is around 100 yuan/ton, and that between PP powder and propylene is around 600 yuan/ton in the spot market, and it has also compressed to around 440 yuan/ton in the futures market. One can enter the market when the price is low and pay attention to the maintenance situation of the PP end [17]. - **Recent Strategy Review** - The strategy of narrowing the PP01 - PL03 spread (take profit) was proposed on November 7 and took profit on November 20. Currently, wait and see for opportunities to enter the market to widen the spread. - Hold the reverse arbitrage of PL01 - 03, which was entered on December 5. Conduct range - bound operations on PL01 - 03, mainly focusing on reverse arbitrage [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished product inventories worried about propylene price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to their inventory to lock in profits. Sell PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options on PL2603C6200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 80 - 100 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories that hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs. Buy PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options on PL2603P5700 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have no results, and there is still some distance from reaching an agreement, causing a slight increase in the crude oil market [23]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in December is 93% according to Polymarket [23]. - Spot prices are relatively stable [23]. - **Negative Information** Some of the currently shut - down PDH devices will gradually restart. If there is no more negative feedback, the supply side will remain loose [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [24]. - The US October PCE price index will be released [24]. - The US FOMC interest rate decision will be announced [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, the PL03 contract oscillated downward. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, the net positions of the top five long - position holders in the dragon - tiger list remained unchanged, the top five short - position holders significantly increased their positions, the net long positions of profitable seats slightly increased, the net long positions of foreign capital slightly decreased, and the net short positions of retail investors slightly increased [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The PL03 contract was generally weakly oscillating this week. The daily - line middle track still exerted pressure, and currently, there seems to be support around 5,800 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure** - This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 112 yuan/ton compared to last week. Spot prices remained stable while futures prices declined. The 01 - 03 calendar spread of propylene was + 126 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+ 59 yuan/ton). The cracking end has been relatively stable recently due to the resumption of production at Zhenhai [29]. - **Mid - stream Profit**: The propane cracking profit has significantly declined, reducing the economic viability of LPG cracking. The PDH profit based on FEI as the cost was - 350 yuan/ton (+ 80 yuan/ton), and that based on CP as the cost was - 505 yuan/ton (+ 47 yuan/ton). The PDH profit remains in a loss state [31]. - **Down - stream Profit** - The price difference between PP拉丝 and propylene is 100 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), and that between PP powder and propylene is 60 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), with the spread compressed to a low level [35]. - The profit of epoxy propane PO/SM is 1,365 yuan/ton (+ 126 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 834 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin method profit is 178 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton) [35]. - The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,189 yuan/ton (+ 58 yuan/ton), oscillating this week but with large overall losses [35]. - The acrylic acid profit is - 78 yuan/ton (- 18 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening, and attention should be paid to the subsequent operation situation [35]. - The butanol profit is + 182 yuan/ton (+ 657 yuan/ton), with a significant improvement in profit [35]. - The octanol profit is + 702 yuan/ton (+ 607 yuan/ton), with the profit recovering from a low level as the supply decreases [35]. - The phenol - acetone profit is - 990 yuan/ton (- 367 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening. Currently, PO, butanol, and octanol have some profits, while others are mostly in a loss state [35][36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has recently increased slightly, with CFR China at 745 US dollars (+ 10 US dollars) [45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased, and spot prices slightly rose. The increase in supply mainly came from the resumption of production at Hengtong, and the increase in demand came from the resumption of production and increased operation of devices such as PO and acrylic acid. In the future, supply will slightly increase with the resumption of production at Binhua [47]. 5.2 Market Supply Side and Deduction This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall propylene operation rate was 74.06% (- 0.06%), still at a high level [50]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - **PP**: This week, the price difference between PP pellets and powder and propylene continued to shrink, and the overall operation rate declined, but there were not many maintenance plans. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has compressed to a low level, and maintenance has increased [62][70]. - **Epoxy Propane**: This week, the price of epoxy propane declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, but the inventory was still in a destocking state. This week, Shandong Xinyue and Qixiang Tengda increased their operation rates, while Shandong Binhua, Zhonghai Jingxi, and Shandong Minxiang slightly decreased their operation rates, and the overall operation rate slightly increased [71]. - **Acrylonitrile**: There was little change [73]. - **Butanol and Octanol** - Ningxia Jiuhong restarted and increased its operation rate. The 450,000 - ton device of Tianjin Bohua is expected to start operation at the end of December, and the 140,000 - ton device of Jiangsu Huachang is expected to start operation in mid - to - late December [78][80]. - **Acrylic Acid**: Shanghai Huayi slightly decreased its operation rate, Wanhua slightly increased its operation rate, Binhai Chemical stopped for maintenance, and Qixiang Tengda recently restarted [84]. - **Phenol - Acetone**: Taihua Xingye is expected to conduct maintenance for about one and a half months [86]. - **Shandong Regional Demand**: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week. The increase mainly came from the resumption of production and increased operation of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the uncertainty of the final price of the 01 contract and the ambiguity of the Spring Festival consumption season. The 01 contract will follow the delivery logic due to reduced supply and limited deliverable fruits, while future price factors will shift from supply to consumption, with potential "off - peak during peak season" scenarios [1]. - The short - term trading logic is that it's the off - season for late Fuji apples, with limited orders from merchants and market impact from citrus fruits, but the price of high - quality apples remains firm. In the long - term, the scarcity of high - quality apples provides opportunities for price rebounds after declines [2][3]. - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The basis strategy is difficult to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing. For industrial clients, different hedging strategies are recommended based on inventory and procurement management needs [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The 01 contract price is expected to keep rising due to reduced apple production, poor quality, and limited deliverable fruits. Future price determinants will shift to consumption, and there are concerns about "off - peak during peak season" and "bad money driving out good" [1]. - **Speculative Strategy Recommendations** - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The net long position decreased to 3029 lots. The basis strategy is hard to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - **Industry Client Operation Recommendations** - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 18.5% (3 - year). Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **This Week's Important Information** - As of December 3rd, national apple cold - storage inventories decreased. Cold - storage shipments slowed down, and trading in production areas was sluggish. The number of vehicles in Guangdong's three major wholesale markets increased, but the sales slowed down [12]. - **Next Week's Important Information** - Monitor the weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [15]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation** - Last week, apple futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Total positions decreased significantly, and profitable seats continued to reduce positions. Technically, the main contract did not break through the previous high and maintained an upward structure [15]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure** - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The monthly spread structure shows significant fluctuations in the near - month approaching the delivery month, and the possibility of a stronger long - term market is increasing [17]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream** - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. With more low - quality apples this year, storage faces challenges, and the storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined [19]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction** - Affected by weather, this year's apple production and quality declined. The estimated total production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year. Cold - storage inventories decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be lower [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg - laying hen inventory remains at an absolute high. In November, the market demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. Although the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, and the market maintains a situation of loose supply and demand. The long - term egg - laying hen production capacity is still in surplus, with significant price pressure. The overall long - term trend is bearish, but it is approaching an inflection point. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on the far - month contracts [1]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and egg production is large. The trend of the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter is rising to the highest level in the same period, and the age of culled chickens continues to decline. The breeding profit is poor, and the probability of farmers delaying culling and molting increases [5]. - For the far - end, the production capacity is still at an absolute high, and the number of large - scale farms is increasing. Large manufacturers mainly maintain their original production plans, so the clearance of production capacity may be relatively slow. The enthusiasm of farmers for replenishing chicks is relatively low [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is high. In November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, and the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 78.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [1][18]. - The production rate is expected to increase as the temperature drops. However, due to low breeding profits, the number of old hens culled remains high, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. In November, the chick sales volume increased slightly, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1]. - The long - term production capacity of laying hens is in surplus, with high price pressure. The short - term price game lies in whether the actual number of culled chickens will create a shortage in the peak season for near - month contracts and the impact of low chick sales on far - month expectations [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: After the festival, the price reached a phased bottom. The recent rebound declined due to poor demand. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low. There may be a second bottom - testing when the contract approaches delivery, and the bottom - rebounding and bottom - grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6]. - **Single - side Strategy**: Close out the previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly speculate on the peak - season rebound [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see. As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability, and the rebound is less than that of the futures [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past three years at 37.63% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, to prevent inventory devaluation, short egg futures to lock in finished - product profits (10% recommended for JD2601 and JD2601 - C - 340). If worried about inventory devaluation but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell call options (10% recommended). If worried about inventory devaluation but don't want to miss the opportunity of a sharp egg - price increase, buy out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, to prevent future egg - price increases, buy far - month egg contracts according to the procurement plan. If worried about price increases but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell put options. If worried about procurement price increases but don't want to lock in the purchase - and - sales profit in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options [7]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: After the egg price hit the bottom, the willingness of traders to stock up increased, and the market sales speed accelerated. Coupled with the slowdown of the egg - laying cycle of hens due to low temperatures in the north, the supply - side pressure was slightly relieved. It is expected that the egg price will mainly rise slowly and fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 6.09 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.63 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged; and in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged [8]. - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), mutton prices increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month. The prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler compound feed remained unchanged month - on - month [8][9]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg price quotes in the production areas [8]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - The main contract of eggs has switched to the 01 contract. The opening price at the beginning of the week was 3294 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the week was 3117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34%. The open interest was 161,000 contracts, a decrease of 10,024 contracts from last week [9]. 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is actually a normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall structure is contango [11]. - **Basis Structure**: As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability. The basis of the 01 contract fluctuates insignificantly, and the far - month basis is weak [13]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is still poor, at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally. Farmers have the incentive to cull chickens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red, with little change. Feed prices have rebounded, and the corn price has strengthened in the short term, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current low breeding profit persists, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of chickens [15]. Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased [18]. - **Chick Situation**: In November, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 39.55 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. Egg - laying hen breeding is still in a loss stage, and the prices of eggs and old hens remain low. Farmers are cautious about the future market, and the order placement of breeding enterprises has not improved significantly. Only in some areas with a slightly higher empty - pen rate is there phased replenishment [20]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: There is a disagreement between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled chickens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in the number of culled chickens this month, and the market's divergence over the data is increasing [23]. 5.2 Consumption Situation - The egg sales volume in the main sales areas remains weak, and the arrival volume in Dongguan is relatively high [26]. 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is neutral, with 1 day in the production link and 1.24 days in the circulation link [28].

南华期货烧碱产业周报 ——基本面支撑不足 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面支撑有限，淡季来临需求端有进一步走弱预期；烧碱产量高位，供应压力持续；估值上，液氯价格中 性，氯碱利润虽有下滑但处于中性位置。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 中长期投产压力继续，供需格局偏弱。 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 30 40 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 液碱山东周度工厂库存季节性 source： BAIINFO,南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/0 ...

——库存去化宏观微暖，下方支撑较强 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周铅价偏强震荡，当前铅市处于宏观预期偏暖+地域性供给收紧与累库隐忧的博弈阶段。宏观层面， 随着美国12月利率决议临近，市场对降息25个基点的预期升温，叠加近期美国数据（如JOLTs职位空缺）表 现平平，美元指数承压下行，为有色板块提供了估值支撑。供给端，矛盾显著激化。原生铅方面，云南、安 徽、江西等地冶炼厂集中检修，导致地域性现货流通收紧；再生铅方面，受环保换证（安徽）及原料紧缺 （内蒙古）影响，开工率下滑至48.4%，散单货源极度稀缺。需求端，虽然正值冬季，但汽车起动电池步入 传统旺季，叠加年底冲量效应，大型电池厂开工率回升至74.46%，对铅价形成刚需托底。库存端，社会库存 降至2.36万吨的15个月新低，低库存给予多头极强的逼仓底气。综上所述，在显性库存极低且供应端持续受 到扰动的背景下，铅价短期易涨难跌，维持震荡偏强判断。 铅定价逻辑 source： SMM,南华研究 元/吨 元/金属吨 国产铅精矿价格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market showed a weakening trend this week. In the short - term, there is no driving force, presenting a weakening and oscillating pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to arrange long - term contracts during the peak season at low prices [1][2]. - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, the reduction of production on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected reduction of production on the demand side due to weak terminal shipments [1]. - The price of industrial silicon is closely related to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures focuses on the progress of eliminating backward production capacity, supply - side production cuts, and demand - side production reduction expectations [1]. - The optimization of production capacity in the industrial silicon industry faces resistance because it is mainly composed of private enterprises with a large number of scattered enterprises, leading to low confidence in effective production capacity clearance through industry self - discipline [1]. - Power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect power cost and then the price of industrial silicon. In December, there are expectations of a decline in the operating rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and the polysilicon industry is likely to cut production, while downstream organic silicon monomer plants have maintenance plans, with only the aluminum alloy industry maintaining a stable operating rate [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range oscillation and bottom - building [4]. - Price range: Oscillation range is 8400 - 9500; low - level range is 7000 - 8400 [5]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [5]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - For sales management, enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future can sell corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20% to prevent price drops and profit reduction [5]. - For procurement management, enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/organic silicon/aluminum alloy can buy corresponding futures contracts or use combination option strategies according to different situations, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 30% to prevent cost increases [5]. - For inventory management, enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories can short the main futures contract or use a combination option strategy (sell call options + buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively to prevent inventory depreciation [5]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 2nd, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced the partial share pledge of its controlling shareholder [6]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - No relevant content provided Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the Friday closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract was 8823 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%; the trading volume was 290,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9.38%; the open interest was 441,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 59,600 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 7288 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 692 lots [12]. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price gradually fell below the 60 - day moving average this week. Combining the MACD indicator signals and open interest data changes, the disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increasing and price falling" [12]. - The current industrial silicon futures price has gradually moved from the middle track to the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth has shown a certain expansion. The first support level of 8700 yuan/ton and the second support level of 8400 yuan/ton should be focused on [12]. 3.2 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been slowly weakening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually narrowing [14]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of industrial silicon has been oscillating and weakening in the past week [14]. - The PCR of industrial silicon option open interest has been decreasing recently, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bullish sentiment is gradually rising [14]. 3.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit 4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous repair channel. The profit in the southwest region has declined rapidly due to the dry season [25]. - The polysilicon industry, the core downstream demand area of industrial silicon, has stable profits, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is declining [25]. Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rate data of industrial silicon from different sources (Baichuan, Steel Union, SMM) are provided, showing different trends of production and operating rate changes [32]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and forms are presented, including national, regional, and port inventories [47][48][49]. 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production data of domestic polysilicon from different sources (SMM, Baichuan) are provided, with different trends of production changes. The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon in different parts (total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, etc.) are also given [51][52][54]. 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rate and inventory data of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are provided, showing different trends of operating rate and inventory changes [58][59]. 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production data of organic silicon DMC are provided, showing a slight decrease in weekly production but an increase in monthly production [63]. 5.5 Terminal - The data of terminal products such as Chinese commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity are presented [66].

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——复产扰动+Q1淡季预期，注意回调风险 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅偏弱震荡态势。展望未来一个月，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国 内锂矿库存紧张程度、枧下窝复产进展、下游补库节奏、Q1下游排产，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走 势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存仍较为紧张。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市 场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游 库存降幅显著。12月份下游正极材料及动力电芯排产环比微增，市场需求维持强劲。同时，下游补库节奏亦 不容忽视，碳酸锂价格已连续上涨约1个月，涨价周期内下游对高价碳酸锂的采购意愿显著下降，以消耗自身 库存为主。若后续刚需补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。从技术面分析，当前面临较大回调压 力。 综合基本面等因素分 ...

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——交割品牌增加，下行风险增大 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、新注册交割品牌的仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 从时间维度来看，当前光伏收储平台落地进程未出现实质性进展。同时，由于近两周市场炒作可交割品不足 的问题，广期所已于周五新增两个厂家的交割品，预计后续将对多晶硅期货产生较大影响。 从 ...