Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices rose slightly and then fell recently. Domestic smelter production cuts briefly pushed up tin prices this week, but the impact was limited, and prices returned to the trading range. In the short term, tin prices may remain range - bound. The Fed Chairman's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next 1 trading day. Fundamentally, the continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The production start - up of tin solder enterprises on the demand side is okay, and they still have the willingness to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 265,930 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 265,930 yuan/ton, 266,130 yuan/ton, and 266,510 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, up 370 dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.97, up 0.05 with a daily increase of 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 266,000 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 254,000 yuan/ton, 258,000 yuan/ton, 172,750 yuan/ton, 180,250 yuan/ton, and 272,250 yuan/ton respectively. The 1 tin premium increased by 100 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 33.33%, while other spot prices had no weekly change [11]. 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 1,109.34 yuan with a daily decrease of 6.26%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [15]. 3.4 Tin Inventory - The latest total tin warehouse receipt quantity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,053 tons, down 205 tons with a daily decrease of 2.82%. The warehouse receipt quantities in Guangdong and Shanghai are 4,925 tons and 1,267 tons respectively, down 121 tons (- 2.4%) and 84 tons (- 6.22%) respectively. The total LME tin inventory is 1,740 tons, up 25 tons with a daily increase of 1.46% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation-based" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, the lead price showed a weak oscillation, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons. The price of waste lead - acid batteries decreased slightly, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises did not narrow. The lead price oscillated with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. On Friday night, it broke through upwards driven by the market but then fell back due to insufficient driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - This week, the lead price was weakly oscillating, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons [3] Industry Performance - Due to the oscillating lead price, the decline in the price of waste lead - acid batteries was limited. Most smelting enterprises settled at the pre - decline price. As of August 22, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive profit - and - loss value of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 445 yuan/ton, and that of small - and - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 665 yuan/ton [3] Core Logic - This week, the lead price oscillated with continuous bull - bear games. On Friday night, it was driven by the market to break through upwards but then fell back. On the supply side, primary lead smelters were more willing to produce due to the expected peak demand season. Secondary lead smelters were still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw material waste batteries, so they sold at a firm price, and the overall operating rate remained stable at a low level. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead batteries this week was 71.64%, a significant improvement from last week. Domestic inventory oscillated, and LME inventory remained high. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Zinc Weekly Report - Narrow Range Fluctuation [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The zinc price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, with the short - term contradiction being the stronger external and weaker domestic zinc prices [3] Group 2: Market Performance 2.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; LME zinc is 2,818 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [5] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract is 107,792, and the open interest is 88,665 [5] 2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The price of 0 zinc ingot is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 1.11%; 1 zinc ingot is 22,130 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [12] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai (10 - month/15 - month) premium is - 35 yuan/ton; Shanghai (spot/main) premium is 220 yuan/ton [12] Group 3: Industry Situation 3.1 Supply - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable this week and was better than last year. The zinc ore supply was still in a state of slight surplus [3] - **Mine End**: Although there were many imports, domestic mines had price advantages [3] - **Smelting End**: The smelter's operating rate remained strong, the willingness to resume production was strong, TC increased steadily, and profit repair was stable [3] 3.2 Demand - Affected by the military parade, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly [3] 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons (- 1.85%); zinc concentrate port inventory was 217,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons (1.88%) [26] - **LME Inventory**: LME zinc inventory decreased to 68,075 tons, a decrease of 8,250 tons (- 10.81%); registered warrants decreased continuously [26] Group 4: Advanced Data - **Zinc Import Profit and Loss**: - 1,675.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 349.65 yuan/ton [22] - **Import Zinc Concentrate TC**: 45 dollars/dry ton, unchanged [22] - **Domestic Zinc Concentrate TC**: 3,900 yuan/metal ton, unchanged [22] - **Zinc SHFE - LME Ratio**: 7.9045, a decrease of 0.1402 [22] Group 5: Production and Consumption 5.1 Production - **Zinc Concentrate Capacity Utilization (July 2025)**: The total annual capacity was 7.70844 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 98.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.74% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18% [35] - **Zinc Output (July 2025)**: Refined zinc output was 555,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.62%; zinc concentrate output was 319,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.76% [35] 5.2 Consumption - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing was 57.42%, a decrease of 1.12%; zinc oxide was 55.89%, a decrease of 1.06%; die - casting zinc alloy was 50.46%, an increase of 2.85% [51] Group 6: Import and Export 6.1 Zinc Concentrate Import - **July 2025**: The import volume was 501,425 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.58%; the cumulative import volume was 3,035,364 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.20% [37] - **Import Dependence**: 60.9%, a year - on - year increase of 13.19% [37] 6.2 Refined Zinc Import - **July 2025**: The import volume was 17,904 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%; the cumulative import volume was 209,889 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [37] - **Import Dependence**: 3.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 19.79% [37] Group 7: Supply - Demand Balance - **Zinc Concentrate (June 2025)**: - 57,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 209.62% [48] - **Refined Zinc (June 2025)**: 23,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2490.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 210.65% [48]

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concern about methanol price decline (long position): - Short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profit and cover production cost, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent price slump and sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 15 - 20 and 45 - 60 respectively [3] Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and purchase based on orders (short position): - Buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Methanol 09 contract oscillates weakly, with contradictions in near - term weakness and high shipments from Iran. Port pressure remains high, and the 91 reverse spread is expected to be around - 120 [4] - Iran's shipments exceed expectations (850,000 tons in August so far, likely to exceed 1 million tons this month), causing great pressure on port arrivals. Inventories in East and South China in August are almost full [4] - After the 91 spread reaches - 120, selling 09 for delivery to 01 is risk - free considering storage and transfer costs. The inland market weakens this week, with Xinjiang's goods flowing out, rising开工 in the Northwest, and low procurement enthusiasm from traditional downstream industries [4] 4. Negative Factors - This week, expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, with sufficient arrivals, leading to an expected increase in port methanol inventory [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, while that for the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by the current cabin quotes on European routes. The current cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future market, one can continue to focus on the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. The current cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFI European routes both continued to decline, and the futures price was more likely to maintain a slight downward trend in oscillation, showing a trend relay state. The near - month contracts might experience a short - term rebound after falling to a low level [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Abstract - The Shanghai Export Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes of the current - period futures target continued to decline, while that for US West routes rebounded. The CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by European route current - cabin quotes. The current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future, pay attention to European route quotes and market fundamentals. The futures price may oscillate slightly downward, and near - month contracts may rebound after hitting lows [1]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily observe [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 3.3. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts declined. For example, the closing price of EC2510 fell 4.70% from the previous week to 1309.0 points, and the settlement price dropped 3.57% to 1324.0 points. The main influencing factor was the European route current - cabin quotes [3]. 3.4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 18, the SCFIS European route continued to decline with a 2.47% month - on - month decrease (previous value - 2.71%), while the US West route rebounded with a 2.23% increase (previous value - 4.25%). As of August 22, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI continued to fall with wider declines. In terms of routes, the North American routes' declines widened, and the European route decline also expanded [8]. 3.5. Spot Information - Demand Side - There are data on the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes [20][23][24]. 3.6. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 23, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 4.0%. The idle capacity of 17000TEU+ container ships was 37954TEU, accounting for 0.8% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships was 82977TEU, accounting for 1.0% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 34.4 thousand TEU to 609.7 thousand TEU; Rotterdam Port decreased by 41.3 thousand TEU to 199.5 thousand TEU; Antwerp Port increased by 9.4 thousand TEU to 93.7 thousand TEU; Hamburg Port decreased by 3.8 thousand TEU to 109.8 thousand TEU [27][30]. 3.7. Spread Analysis - The current - period SCFIS European route continued to decline with a stable 2.47% month - on - month decrease, closing at 2180.17 points. The basis of the main contract EC2510 first narrowed slightly from last week and then widened slightly. The European route current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies continued to decline, leading the futures price trend. As the container shipping market is about to exit the traditional peak season, demand support is gradually decreasing. The basis remains at a relatively high level compared to the previous period. Traders should temporarily observe in the spot - futures aspect. The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - period contract combinations such as EC2508 - EC2510, EC2508 - EC2512, and EC2510 - EC2512 are given, and traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently under pressure in the short term. In the near - term, it is in the off - season for agricultural demand, and industrial production load is decreasing. Affected by the September 3rd military parade, some compound fertilizer and board factories in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces have received requirements for production suspension and restriction after mid - August, and freight transportation in some areas will be significantly restricted. In the medium - term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. The urea market is in a pattern with support at the bottom and suppression at the top, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises are under maintenance this period, including Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical. Some enterprises have resumed production, such as Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Jingyuan Coal Industry Group. The daily urea output next week will be around 200,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, China's urea production enterprises produced 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95% [4]. Demand - Domestic demand remains weak. The agricultural top - dressing demand in the northern region has basically ended. The compound fertilizer industry has a large sales pressure on finished products recently, with a low operating rate, limited demand for urea raw material procurement, and low acceptance of high - priced urea supplies [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong is 1660 (01 basis - 80), and in Henan is 1670 (01 basis - 70) [5]. Strategy View - In the short term, due to the off - season of agricultural demand and production suspension and restriction requirements, the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, exports will support the demand side. Factory backlog orders and inventory pressure increase, and spot quotes decline, but there may be a phased rebound with the opening of export channels. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints MEG - MEG is expected to maintain an upward - biased and hard - to - fall trend in the short term. Although it is in a pattern of inventory accumulation, the low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply make it likely to rise. Operationally, it is recommended to go long on dips within the range. In the medium - to - long term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling out - of - the - money near - month call options [1][3]. PX - TA - The supply reduction of PX - TA has pushed up the PTA price. In the short term, the unexpected device events cannot change the long - term relatively oversupplied pattern. The processing fee of PTA is expected to be under long - term pressure. Operationally, the processing fee should be shorted on rallies, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread can be moderately shorted on rallies [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory MEG Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Ethylene - based and coal - based loads have different changes. Next week, the total load is expected to continue to increase. The profits of each route of EG have been slightly repaired. The port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The polyester load has increased to 90% (+0.6%). Downstream demand has improved, with both domestic and foreign trade orders starting. The inventory of filament and staple fiber products has decreased. The profits of the polyester segment are under pressure, while the bottle - chip orders are good, and the load is expected to increase in September [2]. Key Data - **Price**: The price of MEG in East China has increased from 4458 yuan/ton to 4512 yuan/ton, and the US dollar price has increased from 524 dollars/ton to 529 dollars/ton [7]. - **Profit**: The profits of MEG from various sources, such as coal - based and external - ethylene, have increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased from 55.3 tons to 54.7 tons [7]. Maintenance Situation - Many ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or restart states, with different expected restart times [12]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - **PX**: The load has increased to 84.6% (+0.3%). The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the supply - demand balance in August and September has turned to a slight surplus. The profits of the PX segment have expanded [5]. - **PTA**: The load has decreased to 71.6% (-4.4%). The social inventory has decreased to 2.2 million tons (-70,000 tons). The processing fee has been repaired, but the market is still relatively loose [5]. Key Data - **Price**: The price of PX in the Chinese main port has increased from 828 dollars/ton to 853.7 dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China has increased from 4659 yuan/ton to 4865 yuan/ton [8]. - **Profit**: The PXN and PX - MX spreads have increased, and the domestic processing fee of PTA has increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased [8]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX, PTA devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or restart states, with different expected restart times [13][14]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 90% (+0.6%), and the loads of filament, staple fiber, and bottle - chip have all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand has improved, with orders starting, and the inventory of products has decreased [6]. - **Profit**: The profits of most polyester products have been under pressure, but the processing fees of bottle - chips have been repaired [9]. Key Data - **Price**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and other products have increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory days of POY, FDY, DTY, and staple fiber have decreased [9]. Production Plan - The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 4.85 million tons, including filament, bottle - chip, slice, and film products [18].

南华甲醇产业链数据周报20250824： 港口承压 戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 甲醇区域现货流通概括 2 周度产业链价格总览： | | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 令日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | 价差 | 今日 | 上周 | 周辉联 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | | 01合约 | | 2410 | 2430 | -20 | 2503 | -93 | 1-5价差 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 75 | +48 | | 05合约 | | 2383 | 2402 | -19 | 2428 | -45 | 5-9价差 | 81 | 64 | r 17 | 3 | 78 | | 09合约 | | 2302 | 2338 | -36 | 2425 | -123 | 9-1价差 | -108 | -92 | -16 | -78 | +30 | | | | | | | | 国内 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading volume of commodity options decreased significantly by 24.45% compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 24.29%. The market sentiment of commodity options cooled significantly, and the implied volatility of options generally declined [2][4]. - The implied volatility of lithium carbonate and soda ash options decreased by more than 4 percentage points compared to last Friday and are currently at the 60%-70% and 30%-40% historical quantile levels respectively [2][4]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content Volatility - As of Friday's close, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 28.91%, a decrease of 4.35% from a week ago; lithium carbonate options was 42.69%, a decrease of 5.54%; rebar options was 11.35%, a decrease of 0.46%; soda ash options was 18.20%, a decrease of 1.48%; gold options was 15.51%, a decrease of 0.25%; silver options was 18.06%, a decrease of 0.21%; palm oil options was 15.61%, an increase of 0.14%; soybean oil options was 21.60%, an increase of 2.06%; rapeseed oil options was 19.84%, a decrease of 0.35%; rubber options was 12.69%, a decrease of 2.85% [1][4]. Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the trading volume and open interest, implied volatility and historical volatility, skewness structure, and term structure of various commodity options such as crude oil, lithium carbonate, rebar, soda ash, gold, silver, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and rubber [5][13][20].

金融期权周报 I 2025/08/18—2025/08/22 隐波上升，情绪持续升温 本周摘要 路智名 从业资格证号：F03124116 金融期权方面，50ETF 期权本周日均成交量为 190.67 万 张，较前周上升 20.55%，其中认沽期权成交量低于认购期权， 认沽-认购成交比为 0.64，相对前周有所下降，低于历史均值水 平。上周认沽认购持仓比为 1.19，较前周上升，高于历史均值。 华泰柏瑞 300ETF 期权日均成交 186.24 万张，日均持仓量 151.78 万张；南方中证 500ETF 期权日均成交 238.46 万张，日 均持仓量 150.08 万张；华夏上证科创 50ETF 期权日均成交 217.47 万张，日均持仓量 208.11 万张；深证 100ETF 期权日均 成交 18.99 万张，日均持仓量 16.4 万张；创业板 ETF 期权日均 成交 290.74 万张，日均持仓量 192.49 万张；沪深 300 股指期权 日均成交 13.46 万手，日均持仓量 16.2 万手；中证 1000 股指期 权日均成交 31.7 万手，日均持仓 25.3 万手。 波动率方面，截止本周五收盘， ...