Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pulp futures prices is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile, with the price center slightly shifting downwards. Attention should be paid to the impacts brought by changes in supply and demand [2][3]. - In the short - term trading logic, the overall idea should be to short at high levels, but beware of the possibility of price rebounds at low levels. In the long - term trading, although the impact of needle pulp warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, there are uncertainties in the supply of long - term warehouse receipts, which brings certain benefits. The Fed's continuous interest - rate cut process may stop, and the macro sentiment is relatively weak, while there may be favorable policy factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The core influencing factors this week are the poor downstream bidding situation and the accumulation of port inventories. The poor bidding situation has affected the confidence of paper enterprises and prices. The increase in Chinese port inventories by 63,000 tons has also put pressure on futures prices. In addition, some pulp mills are expected to increase production in the future, which will increase the supply pressure. The downstream paper - making operating rate has declined, and demand has weakened. The previous increase in pulp futures prices was also affected by capital, and the current decline is a return to a relatively normal price [2][3]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - Futures trading can consider temporary waiting and watching, or short - term shorting at high levels. Options strategies can also wait and watch temporarily. The 12 - 01 backwardation spread arbitrage can continue to be held [15]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (needle pulp/offset printing paper) who are worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, or sell call options to collect premiums. For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, or sell put options to collect premiums [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - Some pulp mills are under maintenance, and European port pulp inventories decreased in September [11]. - **Negative Information** - Port inventories have accumulated, the Thurderbay pulp mill and the US Woodland pulp mill will switch to producing needle pulp, and the bidding situation of paper enterprises is poor [16]. - **Spot Transaction Information** - The report provides detailed price information on various types of pulp, including futures prices, domestic spot prices, and domestic finished - paper average prices, as well as their price changes [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation** - The SP2601 contract fluctuated widely this week. Both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator rose and is still in the buying range but is approaching the neutral range, with a high possibility of continued short - term fluctuations [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure** - The 12 - 06 contract maintains a C - structure, and the 07 - 11 contract is in a B - structure. The suppression of needle pulp warehouse receipts continues, and the current inventory reduction is slow. Attention can be paid to the 12 - 01 spread backwardation arbitrage [22]. 3.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory** - On November 21st, the inventory was 2.173 million tons (+63,000 tons), showing a significant increase compared to last week. The domestic monthly import volume of needle pulp in late September was 760,000 tons, showing a rebound from August. The global pulp shipment volume to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, which will put pressure on subsequent pulp inventory reduction. The inventories of downstream finished papers in enterprises are continuously accumulating, and the profit margins have declined this week, restricting the raw - material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [26]. - **Supply** - It includes domestic production volume and import volume. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of domestic pulp production and import volume [51][53]. - **Demand** - It includes the capacity utilization rate, production volume, export volume, and consumption volume of finished papers. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of these aspects [60][64][68][73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decrease, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a single - sided driver. The near - month contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - month contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the long - near and short - far positive spread logic [4]. - Rapeseed meal will remain in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expectation of additional Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, so it is regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warrant registration after the centralized cancellation of warrants in November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans will be further reduced and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases can be realized. The domestic market has a positive spread logic of near - strong and far - weak [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will be in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected supply recovery and limited demand growth, it is regarded as weak, and attention can be paid to the warrant registration after the November cancellation [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices, the external market balance sheet's price range moves up, and the pressure on near - month contracts eases during the warrant cancellation month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The current near - month supply of imported soybeans is high, Brazilian planting is smooth with a high - yield expectation, and the far - month supply gap is filled under the Sino - US negotiation and procurement background [8]. 3.4 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3012, down 5 (- 0.17%); soybean meal 05 is 2803, down 8 (- 0.28%); soybean meal 09 is 2915, down 11 (- 0.38%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2431, up 19 (0.79%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2367, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2435, down 9 (- 0.37%); CBOT soybeans are 1123, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1198, up 0.0019 (0.03%) [9]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures and spot are presented in the report, such as the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 209, up 3, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 64, up 29 [10]. 3.5 Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4759.4897 yuan/ton, up 47.3957 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 879.9197 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3817.15 yuan/ton, down 37.46 yuan/ton, with a profit of 182.5377 yuan/ton. The import cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 773.9008 yuan/ton, up 7.8381 yuan/ton. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 692 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and the spot profit is 954 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 46.24 points, a decline of -1.81%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and silver, with the crude oil variety index falling -2.63% and contributing -0.43%, and the silver variety index falling -5.62% and contributing -0.34% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 66.82 points, a -1.9% decline. The most influential varieties were crude oil and soda ash, with the crude oil variety index contributing -0.46% and the soda ash variety index contributing -0.19% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index fell 41.52 points, a -0.64% decline. The most influential variety was nickel, contributing -0.28% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index dropped 37.08 points, a -2.36% decline. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing -0.66% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declined by 16.47 points, a -1.55% drop. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.55% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Points Change | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCl | 2502.56 | 2548.80 | -46.24 | -1.81% | 2548.80 | 2502.56 | 46.24 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1528.34 | 1593.22 | -64.87 | -4.07% | 1593.22 | 1523.63 | 69.59 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3456.21 | 3523.03 | -66.82 | -1.90% | 3531.97 | 3456.21 | 75.76 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6404.75 | 6446.27 | -41.52 | -0.64% | 6497.29 | 6404.75 | 92.54 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1536.98 | 1574.06 | -37.08 | -2.36% | 1576.32 | 1536.98 | 39.35 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1733.12 | 1759.79 | -26.67 | -1.52% | 1763.47 | 1733.12 | 30.35 | | Black Index NHFI | 2482.40 | 2488.63 | -6.23 | -0.25% | 2531.04 | 2482.40 | 48.64 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1045.84 | 1062.32 | -16.47 | -1.55% | 1062.32 | 1045.84 | 16.47 | | Nanhua Comprehensive New Consumption NHCIMi | 1158.20 | 1175.38 | -17.18 | -1.46% | 1182.55 | 1158.20 | 24.35 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 992.08 | 1019.23 | -27.15 | -2.66% | 1023.40 | 992.08 | 31.32 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 875.55 | 885.60 | -10.05 | -1.13% | 887.30 | 875.55 | 11.75 | | Chlor - alkali Engineering Equipment MHCCI | 904.67 | 922.93 | -18.25 | -1.98% | 922.93 | 904.67 | 18.25 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1045.83 | 1049.97 | -4.15 | -0.39% | 1071.42 | 1045.83 | 25.59 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 687.69 | 696.93 | -9.24 | -1.33% | 702.74 | 686.94 | 15.80 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1233.00 | 1253.02 | -20.02 | -1.60% | 1253.02 | 1233.00 | 20.02 | | Economic Crops Consumption NHAECI | 906.22 | 916.59 | -10.37 | -1.13% | 916.59 | 906.22 | 10.37 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data The report provides data on the relative strength arbitrage of Nanhua variety indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and ranking of various index ratios such as the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index, the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index, etc. [9] 3.3. Nanhua Sector Index Weekly Data - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were crude oil, soda ash, etc. The index closed at 3456.21 this week, down 1.90% from last week. There were 21 commodities in total, with 3 rising and 17 falling [14]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: The most influential varieties were nickel, copper, etc. The index closed at 6404.75 this week, down 0.64% from last week. There were 13 commodities in total, with 3 rising and 10 falling [14]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: The most influential varieties were crude oil, soda ash, etc. The index closed at 1536.98 this week, down 2.36% from last week. There were 20 commodities in total, with 5 rising and 15 falling [14]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: The most influential varieties were live pigs, soybean meal, etc. The index closed at 1045.84 this week, down 1.55% from last week. There were 13 commodities in total [14]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: The most influential varieties were coke, manganese silicon, etc. The index closed at 2482.40 this week, down 0.25% from last week [15]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: The most influential varieties were zinc, copper, etc. The index closed at 1733.12 this week, down 1.52% from last week [15]. 3.4. Contribution of Each Variety to Index Fluctuations The report shows the contribution of the daily fluctuations of each futures variety to the index fluctuations, as well as the average weekly open interest,环比增幅, and open interest ratio of each futures variety [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The US September non - farm employment report data is divergent, with new employment exceeding expectations while the unemployment rate reaching a four - year high, making it difficult to resolve internal differences within the Fed. The market continues to trade on the expectation that there will probably be no interest rate cut in December. Sino - Japanese disputes persist, and with the general decline in the Asia - Pacific market, the risk appetite in the market has decreased. Today, the stock index of the A - share market opened lower and trended downward as a whole. Under the rising risk - aversion sentiment, the large - cap stock index maintained a relative advantage. In the short term, due to the relatively dull policy news and the weakening of positive policy signals, the bottom support for the stock index is insufficient. Without obvious positive stimuli, the stock index is expected to continue to correct. With high external uncertainties, the risk - aversion sentiment in the market is difficult to ease, and the dominance of large - cap stock indices may continue [4] Market Review - Today, the stock index fell on heavy volume, and the large - cap stock index was relatively resistant to decline. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 2.44%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 2574.72 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH fell on light volume, while IC and IM fell on heavy volume [2] Important Information - The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in September was 1.19 million, far exceeding expectations. The employment figures for the previous two months were significantly revised down by 330,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four - year high. "New Fed Wire": The September employment report fails to resolve internal differences within the Fed. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped to 220,000, and the number of continued claims was the highest in four years [3] Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 2.64 | - 1.98 | - 3.37 | - 3.44 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 16.6554 | 7.5314 | 19.3831 | 32.2669 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 3.8268 | 1.7238 | 5.6263 | 11.1136 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.5889 | 9.5086 | 26.559 | 39.8785 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.1995 | - 0.2689 | 0.9611 | 3.684 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 2.45 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 3.41 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.07 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 19656.61 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (billion yuan) | 2574.72 | [6] Other Data Presentations - Presented data on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength, and the premium/discount rate of IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as the price - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [7][8][9][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.76% today. All sector indices declined, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the largest decline of -1.77% and the Nanhua Black Index having the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the theme indices, only the Building Materials Index rose by 0.11%, while the rest declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.46%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Starch Index had the largest increase of 1.58%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -8.04% [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Indices - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2502.56 today, down 19.21 points or -0.76% from yesterday. The annualized return was -0.99%, the annualized volatility was 11.59%, and the Sharpe ratio was -0.09 [3] - **Precious Metals Index**: The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 3456.21, down 23.43 points or -0.67% with an annualized return of -8.42% and an annualized volatility of 13.82% [3] - **Industrial Products Index**: The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) showed a decline, but specific data was not fully presented [3] - **Metal Index**: The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6404.75, down 41.93 points or -0.65% with an annualized return of 0.68% and an annualized volatility of 12.06% [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1733.12, down 19.68 points or -1.12% with an annualized return of 4.37% and an annualized volatility of 12.47% [3] - **Black Index**: The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2482.40, down 5.91 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -8.33% and an annualized volatility of 16.58% [3] - **Agricultural Products Index**: The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) had an annualized return of 9.76% [3] - **Mini - Composite Index**: The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1158.20, down 8.90 points or -0.76% with an annualized return of -1.09% [3] - **Energy Index**: The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 992.08, down 14.69 points or -1.46% with an annualized return of -2.22% and an annualized volatility of 20.36% [3] - **Petrochemical Index**: The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 875.55, down 7.83 points or -0.89% with an annualized return of -2.77% and an annualized volatility of 10.07% [3] - **Fine Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Fine Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 904.67, down 0.56% with an annualized return of -4.48% and an annualized volatility of 9.56% [3] - **Black Raw Materials Index**: The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1045.83, down 5.77 points or -0.55% with an annualized return of -0.54% and an annualized volatility of 15.66% [3] - **Building Materials Index**: The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 687.69, up 0.75 points or 0.11% with an annualized return of -2.58% and an annualized volatility of 11.47% [3] - **Oilseeds and Oils Index**: The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1233.00, down 2.94 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -1.39% and an annualized volatility of 11.70% [3] - **Economic Crops Index**: The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 906.22, down 0.44% with an annualized return of 0.62% and an annualized volatility of 7.44% [3] 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Increase or Decrease to Index Increase or Decrease - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (3.78%), Rebar (2.08%), etc.; negative contributors included Palm Oil (-11.35%), Cotton (-56.86%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Mini - Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (7.46%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-0.39%), Natural Rubber (-0.39%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included First - class Company (5.51%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-0.39%), PVC (-0.77%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (3.80%); negative contributors included Tin (-5.58%), Aluminum (-5.58%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Positive contributors included Pure Alkali (6.37%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-1.96%), Fuel Oil (-8.34%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (4.23%), Corn (4.76%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-5.78%), Cotton (-21.32%), etc [3] 3.3 Single - Variety Index Daily Increase or Decrease - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Pure Sand increased by 1.04%, Synthetic Ammonia decreased by 0.20%, etc [3] - **Black Sector**: Coal decreased by 1.15% [4] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Starch increased by 1.58%, Corn increased by 1.25%, while Live Pigs decreased by 0.79%, etc [6] - **Other**: Orange - like products decreased by -0.64%, Low - magnetic fuel oil decreased by -1.94% [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. In the short - term, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the market, and under weak sentiment, there is a possibility that the TL contract will continue to decline. However, the medium - term fundamentals still provide support, and interest rates need to remain low, so medium - term long positions can still be held [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but trended lower in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, with most varieties closing down, and the TL contract having the largest decline. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 falling to around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 375 billion yuan, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [1]. - Affected by the US stock market, the A - share market opened and closed lower and declined significantly today, but the bond market did not benefit. The T, TF, and TS contracts generally remained in a volatile state, while the TL contract has shown obvious declines in recent days, indicating weak trading sentiment [3]. Important Information - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding expectations, but the employment figures for the previous two months were significantly revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. - The positive performance of NVIDIA's earnings was short - lived. The US stock market tumbled during the session, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% from its daily high, experiencing the largest intraday reversal since the tariff storm in April. NVIDIA rose more than 5% during the session but closed down more than 3% [2]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 21 Price | 2025 - 11 - 20 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 21 Position | 2025 - 11 - 20 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.448 | 102.458 | - 0.01 | 73,816 | 77,399 | - 3,583 | | TF2512 | 105.855 | 105.915 | - 0.06 | 153,244 | 155,300 | - 2,056 | | T2512 | 108.44 | 108.475 | - 0.035 | 279,585 | 280,931 | - 1,346 | | TL2512 | 115.59 | 115.93 | - 0.34 | 176,275 | 181,999 | - 5,724 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0063 | - 0.012 | 0.0057 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0033 | 0.0154 | - 0.0121 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0802 | 0.0709 | 0.0093 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1601 | 0.1356 | 0.0245 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | 29,272 | 38,948 | - 9,676 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | 64,448 | 71,725 | - 7,277 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | 103,001 | 81,803 | 21,198 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | 97,822 | 94,348 | 3,474 | | | | [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data and the impact on the real economy. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, and the market may focus on this. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate led to a decline in the US dollar index. The domestic LPR remained unchanged, having a neutral impact on the exchange rate. The RMB may gain some appreciation support later [4]. - The US September non - farm payroll report failed to resolve the Fed's internal differences. The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant [5]. - For bonds, real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. - In the container shipping market, the weak spot market and the expected price increase in December are in a game. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can focus on spread reversal opportunities [9][11]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - For copper, the 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. - For steel products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - For LPG, the domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - For PTA - PX, the PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - For methanol, the 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - For PP, it is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - For PE, the supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September. The domestic LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined. The unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate affected the exchange rate, and the RMB may gain appreciation support later [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant due to the unclear Fed's rate - cut decision and other factors [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: Real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - **Copper**: The 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: In the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - **LPG**: The domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - **PP**: It is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - **PE**: The supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. Others - **Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: They are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate more widely in the future, with the futures price likely to "swing widely" between 82,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton this week, and short - term correction risks should be watched out for [3][5] - The lithium ore supply may be alleviated as the expected arrival of lithium concentrate this month is high, and the resumption of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable affecting supply. The current demand is strong, but there are seasonal fluctuations in downstream production, and whether the production of energy - storage cells can make up for the decline in power cells is the focus [3] - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention, as a significant reduction in warehouse receipts may cause market speculation and directly impact the price of lithium carbonate [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 48.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 84.1% [2] - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan (-0.32%) daily and up 11,140 yuan (12.68%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,595,646 lots, down 171,782 lots (-9.72%) daily and up 489,635 lots (44.27%) weekly. The open interest is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots (-4.68%) daily and down 56,912 lots (-10.61%) weekly [8] - **Spread Data**: LC2601 - LC2603 is -180 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan (-100.00%) daily and down 660 yuan (-137.50%) weekly; LC2601 - LC2605 is -1,140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (-1.72%) daily and up 900 yuan (375.00%) weekly; LC2603 - LC2605 is -960 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (-17.24%) daily and up 240 yuan (33.33%) weekly [8] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, up 150 lots (0.56%) daily and down 592 lots (-2.15%) weekly [8] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt Prices**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.77%) daily; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.70%) daily [24] - **Price Difference Data**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan (2.13%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 10,720 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (9.16%) daily and up 2,550 yuan (31.21%) weekly [28] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main lithium carbonate contract and the brand - based basis of different companies are provided. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is -300 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 0 yuan/ton [34] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, an increase of 150 lots from yesterday. The warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai increased by 150 lots, while those of Shanghai State Reserve and Xiamen Jianyida (Jianfa Shanghai) decreased [36][37] 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium concentrate and lithium mica is presented, as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, with fluctuations in different time periods [38][40] 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, strategies include buying 10% of far - month futures contracts, selling 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and using an option combination strategy (selling put options + buying call options) with a 20% ratio. For those with product price correlation, 60% of the main futures contracts should be sold according to the procurement progress, and a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio is recommended [2] - **Sales Management**: To prevent price drops and profit reduction, enterprises should sell futures contracts when obtaining lithium ore. For example, sell 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 and use a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio [2] - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory should short futures contracts according to inventory, such as selling 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Nvidia's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the sentiment of the technology sector and causing today's stock indices to open higher. However, due to strong profit - taking intentions and unresolved Sino - Japanese tensions, the indices weakened after the opening. The market's risk - aversion sentiment was strong, and there was a style shift between large - and small - cap stocks. Defensive large - cap indices were relatively more resilient [5]. - The September non - farm payroll report released tonight is crucial for the Fed's December interest - rate decision. If the employment data improves, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will cool down, and the stock indices are expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indices remaining dominant. If the data shows an increased risk of employment decline, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will rise, strengthening the support for A - shares, and the stock indices may stop falling and rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices opened higher and closed lower. Large - cap indices were relatively more resilient, with the CSI 300 index closing down 0.51%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 17.20 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM declined with reduced volume, while other varieties declined with increased volume [3]. Important News - Nvidia's Q3 total revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance mid - point is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year. Data center revenue reached a record high, and the stock price rose by up to 6% after the market [4]. - The Fed meeting minutes revealed significant differences. Many people think it is not suitable to cut interest rates in December, and some are worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Go long on IH and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of - 0.69%, - 0.49%, - 0.84%, and - 0.48% respectively. The trading volume of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased [6]. Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.708189 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.20 billion yuan from the previous day [7].