聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——动力煤走势偏强，前期空单考虑止盈 2025/11/07 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3750-4250 | 15.81% | 30.0% | | PX | 6000-6800 | 17.16% | 56.6% | | PTA | 4250-4750 | 16.06% | 35.4% | | 瓶片 | 5300-5900 | 12.77% | 47.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Next week, the pulp futures price will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, but there are still certain limitations above [3]. - In the long - term, the impact of Buzhen warehouse receipts will decrease to some extent, but there will still be Buzhen warehouse receipts registered this year available for delivery in 2026. The strengthening expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is bullish for commodities. The instability of the US trade war and tariff policies may cause Brazilian pulp exports to the US to be affected and flow to the Chinese market, creating greater supply pressure, but this has not been seen yet. Under China's anti - involution strategy, positive factors may emerge from the policy side at any time [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core influencing factors this week are macro - sentiment and the implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies. The continuation of import tariffs on US pulp and the increase in the average spot price of imported wood pulp are positive for the pulp futures price. The partial implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies also brings some positive effects, but the actual implementation effect is limited, restricting the increase of the futures price [1]. - From the fundamental perspective, China's port inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the bullish impact on the futures price when it falls below 2 million tons. On the supply side, the resumption of production by some enterprises and the increase in the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp bring certain pressure [1]. - In terms of terminal demand, there is a slight improvement. The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations No specific content provided in the report. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. - For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: Some pulp mills are under maintenance; European port pulp inventory decreased in September; the import tariff ratio of pulp from the US remains unchanged; the softwood pulp market price generally shows a slight upward trend [10]. - **Likely Negative Information**: The high - level destocking of port inventory is slow; Buzhen warehouse receipts suppress the market, and spot liquidity is poor; the peak season is not prosperous, and demand has not improved significantly; the increase in the price increase of downstream paper products in November is lower than expected [11][12]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The trend is in the middle of an uptrend. The short - term support level is in the range of [5200, 5250], and the pressure level is in the range of [5500, 5600]. On the futures side, short - term low - level buying or waiting and seeing can be considered, and high - level shorting opportunities can also be monitored. Option strategies can be temporarily on hold. Short - term basis strategies can be temporarily on hold. For arbitrage (inter - period) strategies, as the delivery time approaches, the previous 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage positions can be gradually closed, and the 12 - 01 reverse arbitrage can be switched to [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the SP2511 contract fluctuated, and the SP2601 contract fluctuated upward. In terms of positions, both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator is generally upward and is still in the buying range, indicating short - term upward potential. However, the 6 - day line is approaching the overbought range, and technically, attention should be paid to the possibility of the futures price falling from a high level [16]. - **Basis and Inter - period Structure**: The inter - period structure maintains a C - structure. The suppression of Buzhen warehouse receipts continues, and the destocking is slow. Affected by the current overall market, the previous short positions in the 01 - 03 inter - period spread can be closed at an appropriate time, and attention should be paid to the short situation of the 12 - 01 inter - period spread [21]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: On November 7, the inventory was 2.008 million tons (- 53,000 tons) compared with last week. Once the port inventory falls below 2 million tons, it may support the futures price. In late September, the monthly import volume of domestic softwood pulp was 760,000 tons, rebounding from August. The volume of global pulp shipped to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, putting pressure on subsequent pulp destocking. Downstream finished - paper inventories in enterprises continue to accumulate, and profit margins have declined this week, restricting downstream enterprises' raw material replenishment [23]. - **Supply**: In terms of domestic production, the production of some enterprises has resumed, and the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp have increased compared with last week [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock Weak" rating for the market [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has become dull after the sharp profit correction last week, and the weakening fundamentals have been fully reflected in the market [3] - The 01 contract has been in a weak shock due to the collapse of previous expectations and the weak fundamentals of the spot market [4] - The probability that the traditional seasonal peak season for the 03 contract cannot be realized is also relatively high [5] - Import profits have been repaired to a certain extent. Reducing the proportion of imported timber and increasing the proportion of integrated timber will increase the import profit of the whole ship [26] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions**: The market center has moved down this week, and the volatility has returned to normal. The weakening fundamentals have been fully reflected in the market. The national port inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters as of October 31, and the daily average outbound volume decreased slightly. The spot prices of 3.9m medium A, 3.9m small A, and 5.9m medium A in Lanshan area have all been lowered by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The 01 - 03 spread center has risen slightly, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to shrink the spread in the medium and long term [3] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The market is in a "Shock Weak" state. Industrial customers can consider buying the basis, and short the 01 - 03 spread when it is high [8][11] - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations**: For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. For procurement management, when the procurement of regular inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs in advance [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **This Week's Important Information**: There is no positive information. Negative information includes low willingness of buyers to take delivery, high delivery costs for sellers, expected decline in shipping costs, short - term increase in supply, weakening downstream consumption, and reduction in spot prices [9][12] - **Next Week's Concerns**: Not mentioned in the report Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation**: The 01 contract has been in a weak shock this week, and the weekly position has increased by 2,000 lots [14] - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The 11 - 01 spread reached - 50 before the delivery of the 11 contract. Currently, the 01 - 03 spread is around - 10, and there is downward space in the long term [16] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and that in Shandong region is around 814. The willingness of buyers to take delivery is around 771. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25] - **Import Profit**: Import profits have been repaired to a certain extent. Adjusting the material ratio can increase the import profit of the whole ship [26] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - **Supply**: From November 8 to 17, it is expected that 14 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of 505,000 cubic meters, and the inventory is expected to change little [34] - **Demand**: As of October 31, the daily average outbound volume was 628,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared with the previous period [34]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, maintaining a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market, advising mid - term long positions to be held and empty positions to buy in batches on pullbacks [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward and closed down across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 14.17 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 91.34 billion yuan, of which 70 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase had been renewed previously [1] 2. Important Information - China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. China's foreign exchange reserves in October were 3.34334 trillion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 468 million US dollars; the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] 3. Market Judgment - The decline of Treasury bond futures intensified in the late trading today, possibly related to the rumor of the announcement of the public - offering fee new regulations over the weekend. If the new regulations lead to accelerated selling by institutions, the central bank can conduct bond purchases to hedge, and the impact on the market is expected to be less than that in September. In October, the export growth rate turned negative, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam also declined. It is necessary to observe whether external demand is trending weaker [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - For TS2512, the price was 102.472 on 2025 - 11 - 07, down 0.022 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 344 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.92, down 0.04, and the contract position decreased by 1984 hands. For T2512, the price was 108.475, down 0.07, and the contract position decreased by 837 hands. For TL2512, the price was 116.03, down 0.1, and the contract position decreased by 593 hands. There were also corresponding changes in the basis and trading volume of each contract [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - Today, the stock index fluctuated throughout the day, with multiple switches between large - and small - cap indexes during the session. The trading volume of the two markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan again, and the dividend index led the gain, indicating that market sentiment is becoming more cautious. Currently, the news is relatively calm, and the market is in a stage of game between the expectation of policy benefits and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits. On the one hand, November is a policy - free window period, and the signal of subsequent additional favorable policies has weakened, so the upward driving force of the stock index is limited. On the other hand, under continuous high - level fluctuations, the demand for funds to take profits has increased, and the index is under callback pressure. However, the expectation of policy benefits still strongly supports the stock index, as can be seen from the multiple intraday rebounds of the stock index this week. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [5] Market Review - Today, the stock index fluctuated throughout the day and closed slightly lower collectively. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.31%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 56.194 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM rose with increasing volume, while other varieties declined with decreasing volume [3] Important Information - President Xi Jinping emphasized when listening to the report on the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port that the construction goals of the Hainan Free Trade Port should be fully achieved. It is necessary to steadily expand institutional opening - up, further improve the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and promote the cross - border flow of production factors. The opening - up rhythm and progress should be scientifically and orderly arranged, and risk identification and prevention should be strengthened [4] - Private data provider Revelio Labs reported that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 9,100 in October, compared with an increase of 33,000 in the previous month. In addition, the number of Challenger job cuts in the United States in October reached 153,100, a year - on - year surge of 175.3%, the highest level in the same period since 2003 [4] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.25 | - 0.13 | - 0.13 | 0.14 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 8.645 | 3.7804 | 10.6961 | 18.7617 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 2.4963 | - 1.3677 | - 2.6527 | - 1.5813 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.7486 | 9.0943 | 24.0492 | 35.6424 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.7165 | - 0.5291 | - 0.9003 | 0.6568 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.25 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.36 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.66 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19990.53 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | - 561.94 | [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is weak, but the cost is relatively strong. The game for the 01 contract may continue until delivery. Without unexpected production cuts, a bearish view is maintained for the glass and soda ash 01 contracts [6]. - Structural contradictions still exist. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and the high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.31% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.4%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.69% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 9.8% [1]. Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1225, 1315, and 1091 respectively, with daily changes of - 2, - 4, and - 10, and daily change rates of - 0.16%, - 0.3%, and - 0.91% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Glass Spot**: Some glass spot prices in different regions showed little change on November 7, 2025. For example, the safety brand in the Shahe area remained at 1130, while the Great Wall brand increased by 5 to 1126 [8]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1294, 1363, and 1210 respectively, with daily changes of 1, - 1, and 3, and daily change rates of 0.08%, - 0.07%, and 0.25% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On November 7, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in some regions such as North China and South China remained unchanged, while the light - alkali market price in some regions had slight changes [9][10]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting glass futures (FG2601) and selling call options (FG601C1200) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying glass futures (FG2601) and selling put options (FG601P1000) are recommended [1]. - For soda ash inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling call options (SA601C1400) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling put options (SA601P1200) are recommended [1]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The cost of glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials) still has an upward expectation, which affects the far - month pricing. The industrial policy expectation cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in the upper and middle reaches are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. The supply pressure remains, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. After the glass spot price increases, the production and sales have weakened, and the sustainability needs to be observed [5][6].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After the impact of the new season's listing in October, the spot price showed resilience and fluctuated slightly stronger in November. Although the spot selling pressure remained at a high level, the price showed signs of bottom consolidation under the influence of state reserve purchases, deep - processing and feed enterprises' restocking at low prices, and the rise of surrounding agricultural product prices. Downstream enterprises are advised to manage their long - term procurement to avoid the risk of increased procurement costs later [2]. - On the futures side, the corn futures price broke through upwards, recovering the decline in October. The main 01 contract closed at 2154 yuan, with increased trading volume and significantly increased open interest. The registered warrants remained unchanged at 66,351 lots. The starch price also rose, with the main 01 contract closing at 2469 yuan, increased trading volume, and slightly increased open interest. The strong sales in the starch market led to continuous inventory reduction, and the futures price followed the corn to strengthen, with the price spread between starch and corn likely to widen further [2]. - Although the overall corn price has stopped falling and stabilized, it is still weaker than other agricultural products. Currently, the price shows resilience, and short - term selling pressure is the core factor determining the price [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower. The harvest and listing of the new season's corn is the core factor suppressing the futures price. In addition, the good planting conditions for South American corn and the sharp decline of surrounding soybeans and wheat also brought pressure [2]. Summary by Section Core Contradictions - Spot price: After the October shock, it showed resilience and narrow - range upward fluctuations in November. Selling pressure is high, but state reserve purchases, enterprise restocking, and rising surrounding agricultural product prices support the price to show bottom - consolidation signs [2]. - Futures price: Corn futures broke through upwards, recovering the October decline. Starch futures followed the upward trend, and the price spread may widen [2]. - Overall situation: Corn price is stable but weaker than other agricultural products. Short - term selling pressure is the key price - determining factor [2]. - International market: CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower due to new - season harvest, good South American planting conditions, and the decline of surrounding products [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure is more dispersed, reducing the urgency of grain sales and alleviating price pressure [3]. - State reserve purchases in the Northeast production area are significantly supporting prices, limiting price declines [3]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, affecting the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current second - fattening entry support the feed demand at a good level [4]. - In the first half of November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure may be released in a concentrated manner, limiting the continuous upward momentum of prices [4]. - The sharp decline of overnight foreign agricultural products may affect the upward trend of corn [4]. Price Forecast - Corn price range (monthly): 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 56.1% [5]. - Starch price range (monthly): 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.00% and a volatility percentile of 37.89% [5]. Price and Basis Data - Spot price: For corn, Jinzhou Port is 2155 yuan (-10 yuan), Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch, Shandong is 2750 yuan (unchanged), Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is 2450 yuan (unchanged) [5]. - Basis: Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis for corn is 1 yuan (-30 yuan), and Shandong main - continuous basis for corn starch is 281 yuan (-18 yuan) [5]. - Futures price: Corn futures prices generally increased on November 6, 2025, with the 11 - contract rising 28 yuan (1.32%), the 01 - contract rising 20 yuan (0.94%), etc. Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the 11 - contract unchanged, the 01 - contract rising 18 yuan (0.73%), etc. The wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan (-0.12%) [6]. International Market Data - CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 428.75 cents per bushel, down 6.25 cents (-1.44%). COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1108 cents per bushel, down 26.5 cents (-2.34%). CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 536 cents per bushel, down 18 cents (-3.25%) [26]. - The duty - paid price in the US Gulf is 2164.54 yuan, up 10.57 yuan (0.49%), with an import profit of 85.46 yuan. The duty - paid price in the US West is 2048.48 yuan, up 10.63 yuan (0.52%), with an import profit of 201.52 yuan [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index opened high and closed high, with the trading volume of the two markets rebounding to over 2 trillion yuan. The latest ADP data released by the US last night showed an unexpected rebound in employment, which somewhat dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. After the data release, the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index both turned up, and the US dollar index subsequently declined. However, due to the continuous stagnation of wage growth and the inflation pressure indicated by the input price index released by the US ISM, the market's bet on the probability of an interest rate cut in December has decreased but is still higher than the probability of no cut, which has little impact on the A-share market. In terms of the basis of stock index futures, except for the deepening of the discount of the current and next quarterly contracts of IH, the discounts of the rest have converged, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. However, today, despite the collective rise of the indices, stocks did not show a general upward trend, with a rise-fall ratio of only 1.2. The rising sectors were mainly those that had corrected significantly recently, indicating significant sector rotation. Therefore, it is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate in the short term [4]. Market Review - Today, the stock indices closed higher across the board. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 1.43%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 182.906 billion yuan. Stock index futures all rose with shrinking volumes [2]. Important Information - The US "small non-farm payrolls" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, while wage growth continued to stagnate. The US employment market showed signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline. The ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000 and reversing the situation of a revised decrease of 29,000 last month [3]. - The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight-month high, and the price payment index reached a three-year high. The US ISM Services PMI in October was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The new order index jumped to a one-year high. While demand rebounded, inflation pressure became more obvious. The input price index rose to 70, the highest level in three years. The employment situation is stabilizing, although the relevant index is still in contraction [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.39 | 1.04 | 1.69 | 1.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.1413 | 5.1481 | 13.3488 | 20.343 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5203 | -0.1639 | -1.3675 | -3.5254 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4651 | 9.6234 | 24.9495 | 34.9856 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5389 | -0.0744 | -0.694 | -1.6927 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.97 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.73 | | Stock rise-fall ratio | 1.20 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2055.248 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | 182.906 | [7]