1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "peak season" before the 2025 National Day Golden Week was lackluster. Ship operators withdrew an additional 544,000 TEU from the US and European routes in the past month, and the suspension of sailings by alliances increased significantly from W40 to W43, leading to an overall decline in shipping capacity [4]. - In the long run, when ship operators' stock prices fall from their highs, adjustments in operating strategies may make route layouts more complex and variable. A decline in the comprehensive profitability of routes will definitely prompt ship operators to change their operating strategies [4]. - The profitability of ship operators continued to deteriorate in the second quarter of 2025, which may affect their route capacity layout and thus freight rates [41]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Research Summary and Market Outlook 3.1.1. Research Summary - A cross - border e - commerce enterprise in South China has more than 50% of its cargo volume in the European and American regions. The impact of US tariffs on its exports is not significant. Before and after Trump's potential presidency, the enterprise increased inventory in advance, with a significant increase in shipping volume. Currently, the long - term agreement price is higher than the spot freight rate. The enterprise plans to transfer 30% of its remaining exports to Vietnam by the end of the year, with a total of 90% of its goods exported from Vietnam [2]. - A freight forwarding enterprise in South China mainly operates Southeast Asian and West African routes. Since 2025, the company's shipping volume has increased by 30% year - on - year, but due to overcapacity and falling freight rates, its revenue has only increased by 10%. The company uses a "30% direct shipping + 70% transshipment" model for exports to the US [3]. - A port in South China has seen an increase in the number of US routes after the US imposed tariffs, bringing an increase in shipping volume. The shipping capacity of Southeast Asian and West African routes has also increased significantly. In the first eight months, the port's container throughput exceeded 2000 TEU, with more than half being ocean - going container transportation [3]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - In the long run, the adjustment of ship operators' operating strategies may make route layouts more complex. The profitability of a single European route has limited decisive influence on ship operators' profitability. Even if the price drops, it may not change the overcapacity situation, but a decline in comprehensive route profitability will prompt ship operators to change strategies [4]. 3.2. Research Background - As of August 12, 2025, Trump extended the China - US tariff truce period by 90 days to November 10. Currently, the US has a 30% tariff cap on Chinese imports, and China has a 10% tariff cap on US goods. The two sides continue to negotiate [5]. - In 2025, there were multiple rounds of trade negotiations between China and the US on various topics such as soybean purchases, Boeing parts purchases, and restrictions on technology product sales [5]. 3.3. Research Objects and Conclusions 3.3.1. A Large Cross - border E - commerce Enterprise in South China - Before the National Day, the enterprise's inventory situation was similar to the previous two years. Affected by tariff policies, the enterprise stocked up in advance, and the procurement volume in August was normal [22]. - The enterprise builds factories in Vietnam and Thailand to avoid US tariffs. It is expected that 90% of US orders will be produced in Vietnam by the end of the year. The production cost in Vietnam is 6% - 7% higher than in China [23]. - The European market accounts for 20% - 30% of the enterprise's sales, with the German market growing rapidly. The enterprise has increased advertising and marketing investment in the European market [24]. - The freight rate of European routes has been continuously falling, with the price of small containers dropping to over $1000 and large containers below $2000 [25]. 3.3.2. A Freight Enterprise in South China - The enterprise is a leading freight forwarder in South China, mainly focusing on Southeast Asian routes. It has a long - term contract with shipping companies, with advantages in guaranteed cabin space and stable prices [27]. - The enterprise uses a combination of long - term agreement and spot prices for booking, with the long - term agreement price accounting for 50%. Its sales increased by about 10% this year, lower than the expected 20% [29]. - The uncertainty of China - US trade is the biggest pain point. Global freight rates are generally falling, and the profit margin of the freight forwarding industry is extremely low [30]. - The enterprise's Southeast Asian cargo volume has increased by 30% - 40% this year, mainly due to the rise of cross - border e - commerce, industrial transfer, and increased domestic demand in Southeast Asia [31]. 3.3.3. A Port in South China - The port's overall performance is stable. Last year, it completed a total cargo throughput of about 592 million tons, with foreign trade throughput of about 150 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.5%. The container throughput exceeded 25 million TEU, with foreign trade container volume of about 11.8 million TEU [36]. - The port's traditional advantageous routes are Southeast Asian and African routes. The Southeast Asian route has seen significant cargo volume growth this year, and the US route has also increased in both cargo volume and the number of routes [37]. - The port has advantages in location, facilities, and cooperation with shipping companies. It has a mature process for route opening, a clear fee structure, and a high - planned operation [38][39]. 3.4. Ship Operators' Profitability and Operating Strategies - In the second quarter of 2025, the total EBIT of major ship operators was $2.73 billion, lower than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and slightly higher than the same period in 2020. The operating profitability of most ship operators has weakened since 2021 [41]. - The "peak season" during the National Day Golden Week in 2025 was lackluster. Ship operators withdrew additional capacity from US and European routes, and the suspension of sailings by alliances increased significantly from W40 to W43 [4][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply - demand and geopolitical issues, a strong outer - market propane with a large internal - external price difference, and a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation with stable supply - demand, slightly improved chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. PG10/11 mostly follows outer - market propane and crude oil, and with the rebound of crude oil and improved domestic sentiment, the low - level valuation of the disk has been repaired [2]. - The near - end trading logic is that the domestic market remains loose, chemical demand has slightly improved, and the outer - market price is still relatively strong. With the rebound of crude oil, the domestic market has rebounded from the low level. The far - end is affected by macro factors, outer - market seasonal demand, and the possible weakening of chemical demand [4][7]. - The market is expected to be in a volatile state. The price range of PG11 is predicted to be between 4200 - 4600. Different trading strategies are proposed, including base - spread, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. Outer - market propane has been strong in the past month, with a converted RMB - inclusive price of 4700 - 4750 yuan/ton and a large internal - external price difference. The domestic fundamental situation is loose, with stable supply - demand, slightly improved chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - Near - end: The domestic market is loose, chemical demand has slightly improved, the outer - market price is still relatively strong, and the domestic market has rebounded from the low level due to crude oil rebound. Far - end: It is affected by macro factors, outer - market seasonal demand, and the possible weakening of chemical demand [4][7]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in a volatile state, and the price range of PG11 is 4200 - 4600 [11]. - **Base - Spread Strategy**: It is expected to shrink in a volatile manner. Chemical demand is expected to weaken, combustion demand is still weak, the spot side is under pressure, and the disk has room for valuation repair [11]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Sell high and conduct reverse arbitrage. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile pattern. Recently, the disk has shown a positive arbitrage trend due to the rebound of the near - month contract [12]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Buy PP and sell PG at low prices. There are many maintenance plans for the PP end and PDH in October, and PDH profits have room to expand. Also, pay attention to the impact of US demand - inventory changes and Sino - US relations on the outer - market regional price difference after the National Day [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell PG futures (PG2511) to lock in profits and sell call options (PG2511C4600) to collect premiums and reduce costs [14]. - **Procurement Management**: When procurement inventory is low, buy PG futures (PG2511) at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (PG2511P4200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Crude oil rebounded due to issues such as Russian sanctions conflicts. In the industrial sector, the arrival of goods decreased slightly due to typhoons, ports destocked, and chemical demand and production increased slightly [20]. - **Negative Information**: Spot prices dropped this week due to typhoons and refinery inventory reduction [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 30: China's official manufacturing PMI. October 1: US September ISM manufacturing data (expected 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7). October 3: US unemployment rate, non - farm employment and other economic data [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The PG11 contract fluctuated and rose this week, mainly following the crude oil price for valuation repair. Major profitable seats reduced their net positions but increased their cumulative profits. The top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list did not change significantly. The net short positions of some seats decreased slightly, while foreign investors increased their net short positions slightly and retail investors increased their net long positions slightly. Technically, on the daily chart, PG11 entered the previously mentioned volatile range (4200 - 4450), and on the hourly chart, it was at the upper Bollinger Band at the Friday close [18]. - **Base - Spread and Month - Spread Structure**: The LPG month - to - month structure remained in a BACK structure, becoming steeper than last week. The 10 - 11 month spread was 148 yuan/ton, widening by 83 yuan/ton compared to last week, due to the concentrated reduction of short positions in the October contract [23]. 3.2 Outer - Market Situation - **Single - Side Trend**: FEI M1 closed at 545 dollars/ton (- 2), with the premium slightly widening to - 12.25 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at 544 dollars/ton (+ 2), with the discount remaining at - 5 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at 380 dollars/ton (+ 7) [25]. - **Month - Spread Structure**: FEI M1 - M2 was - 9.10 dollars/ton (- 3.10), CP M1 - M2 was - 14.94 dollars/ton (- 3.9), and MB M1 - M2 was - 3.69 dollars/ton (- 2.17) [31]. - **Regional Price - Difference Tracking**: The regional price difference was generally volatile this week, and the FEI - MOPJ price difference weakened again [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profits**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). With high refinery profits, the output of liquefied gas increased [37]. - **Downstream Profits**: The PDH - to - monomer profit calculated by FEI was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 170 yuan/ton (- 129), with greater losses in PP production. MTBE gas - separation profit was - 61 yuan/ton (- 6.75), isomerization profit was - 99 (+ 73), and alkylation oil profit was - 60.50 yuan/ton (+ 77) [39][40]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The outer - market spot price weakened slightly this week, and the import profit increased slightly [42]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - **US Supply - Demand**: The US is still in a stock - building state this week. After the National Day, demand is expected to increase seasonally. From January to August, the US exported 45450 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.61%, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. The export volume remained high in August and September, while the volume to China remained low [46][53]. - **Middle East Supply**: From January to August, the Middle East exported 31745 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with a 0.88% year - on - year decrease in exports to India and a 22.41% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The overall shipment was neutral [57]. - **India Supply - Demand**: From January to August, India's LPG demand was 21487 kt, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and its LPG import was 13959 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.38%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and demand and imports are expected to remain high [61]. - **South Korea Supply**: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. From May to August, its LPG import remained high, with some re - export demand in May and June. The propane cracking profit is better than that of naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [65]. - **Japan Supply - Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. As the weather turns cold, imports are expected to increase, and they are still neutral in September and October [73]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply: Domestic LPG output is expected to remain high due to high refinery profits, and imports may decrease slightly in October due to possible weakening chemical demand. Demand: Chemical demand will decrease slightly, and combustion demand will increase slightly. Inventory: Overall, inventory will increase slightly [81]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 80.27% (- 1.25%), and that of independent refineries is 53.49% (+ 1.64%). The domestic LPG sales volume this week was 53.92 tons (+ 0.07), and the port arrival volume was 53 (- 19.55). Inventory continued to increase, with factory inventory at 18.81 tons (+ 0.78) and port inventory at 313.66 tons (- 9.74) [86]. - **Domestic Demand**: PDH demand: Wanhua Penglai has increased production, and Zhenhua has restarted. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in October. MTBE demand: The operating rate has slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Dongming Qianhai, and exports still provide support. Alkylation oil demand: The operating rate has slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Ningxia Baichuan. Combustion demand: It is expected to increase slightly [93][95][100].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views Glass - Glass is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. Without unexpected factors, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply side has uncertainties, including the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and potential industrial policies. The cost may rise. Before facing delivery, the futures may be more likely to rise than fall. The high mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei restricts its upward elasticity [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1000, 1400). Without cold - repair, consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1]. 纯碱 - The market has repeatedly traded the fact and expectation of soda ash surplus. Without new factors intensifying the surplus and affecting the spot market, the futures may fluctuate with sentiment. High supply is expected, and the production capacity will increase with the output release of Yuangxing Phase II. Demand is expected to remain stable, with a 300 - 350 - million - ton capacity surplus in float glass and photovoltaic glass. Exports remain high. Policy and cost are uncertain factors. Without delivery pressure, soda ash may fluctuate around the marginal cost [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1100, 1500). Use band - trading strategies and short on rallies without policy disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Glass and Soda Ash Third - Quarter Market Review Glass - In Q3 2025, the glass price center moved up. In July, the price of the main 09 contract rose from 1060 yuan/ton to around 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of over 36%, driven by macro - policies and the "anti - involution" sentiment. In August, the market sentiment cooled, and the price declined due to delivery pressure and high mid - stream inventory. In September, the price fluctuated as the market lacked a clear trading theme [2][3]. Soda Ash - In Q3 2025, the soda ash price center moved up from 1100 - 1200 yuan/ton to 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton. In July, the main 09 contract rose to over 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of about 24%, driven by macro - policies and speculative demand. In August, the market returned to reality. Although supply and inventory pressure were high, the price was supported near delivery, showing anti - decline characteristics [7]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Monitor the mid - stream inventory depletion. High inventory in Shahe and Hubei needs to be digested by the end - market in the peak season; otherwise, the price may decline. Hubei's situation is crucial for pricing [19]. - Pay attention to the realization of cost - increase expectations. There are policy pressures for coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe this quarter and in Hubei by the end of 2026. Coal prices may also be affected by policies [21]. - Track whether the supply side can continue to clear. The current daily melting volume is relatively low, and marginal changes in supply will affect the price [22]. Soda Ash - Watch for "policy - related stories" on the supply side. Policy - driven production cuts may change the supply - demand balance, and unexpected supply reduction may lead to significant price elasticity [22][23]. - Focus on the cost - increase expectations of coal and raw salt prices. Coal accounts for 35% - 40% of the cost, and raw salt prices may rise [24]. Chapter 4: Glass Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Glass Supply - As of the end of September 2025, the float glass daily melting volume was around 16.1 - 16.2 million tons, slightly higher than expected. Some production lines may resume production in Q4, but there is no cold - repair expectation. Policy - related coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and Hubei may affect supply and cost [25][26]. Glass Valuation - Gas - fired production lines are in a loss, while coal - fired and petroleum - coke - fired production lines are profitable. There is a policy trend for coal - and petroleum - coke - fired lines to switch to gas, which will increase costs. Glass is in a low - valuation state, and its price increase may lead to over - supply due to increased production expectations [30][31]. Glass Demand - From January to August 2025, real - estate data was weak, which restricted glass demand. From January to September 2025, glass apparent demand declined by 6.5% - 7.0%. Although Q3 was better than Q2, high mid - stream inventory limited the upward elasticity of glass prices. Seasonally, Q4 demand may improve, but mid - stream inventory depletion needs to be observed [34]. Glass Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - Based on the average daily apparent demand in Q3, glass is in a basic balance in Q4. The annual supply and demand growth rates are - 6.3% and - 7% respectively. Marginal changes in supply or demand will determine price elasticity [48]. Chapter 5: Soda Ash Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Long - term Supply Pressure - In H1 2025, soda ash production capacity increased from 38.9 million tons to 41.1 million tons. Yuangxing Phase II with 2.8 - million - ton capacity was ignited in mid - September. High supply is expected in Q4, and the daily output may be above 105,000 tons [51][56]. Valuation Disputes vs. Cost Increase - In Q3, coal and raw salt prices increased, driving up soda ash costs by 80 - 90 yuan/ton. Different production processes and regions have different costs. Market valuation is affected by the difficulty of marginal production capacity exit and cost - increase expectations [61][62]. Soda Ash Demand and Export - Float glass and photovoltaic glass are the main demand sources for soda ash. Float glass production may decline by 6% - 6.5%, and photovoltaic glass by 9% - 10%, dragging down soda ash demand by 4 - 5 percentage points. From January to August 2025, soda ash net exports were nearly 1.35 million tons, and monthly exports are expected to remain at 160,000 - 200,000 tons [72]. Soda Ash Surplus and High Inventory - Soda ash inventory is at a high level, and the market consensus is surplus. In Q4, demand may improve slightly, but supply will remain high, and the surplus situation is difficult to reverse [85]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - In Q4, soda ash production is expected to remain high, with an annual growth rate of 2.5% - 3%. Demand will be stable, and exports will remain high. The supply - demand balance will remain in surplus, with an average daily surplus of about 10,000 tons [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market showed a weakening trend this week, in line with previous expectations. In the next month, the core contradiction of lithium carbonate futures price trends will focus on the resumption progress of underground production capacity on the supply side, potential disruptions to Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node. On the demand side, it is necessary to observe whether the support of downstream peak - season restocking demand can continue [1]. - Considering multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides, it is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Supply - side factors**: Include the resumption progress of underground production capacity, potential disruptions to Qinghai lithium salt enterprises from environmental inspections, and the market's emotional response to the "930" node (potential shutdown of Jiangxi lithium ore enterprises) [1]. - **Demand - side factors**: Need to observe the sustainability of the support from downstream peak - season restocking demand. After the National Day, if the restocking demand falls short of expectations, the price may weaken; otherwise, the price may remain stable. By the end of October, the resumption of underground production needs to be tracked [2]. - **Near - term trading logic (before the end of October)**: Jiangxi lithium ore enterprises face pressure at a specific time node, and the pre - National Day restocking of downstream lithium battery material enterprises has ended, and the restocking after the National Day is less than expected [6]. - **Long - term trading logic (after the end of October)**: Focus on the resumption progress of Ningde's underground lithium mine in November and the policy support for the new energy industry [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: The market is expected to weaken with fluctuations, with a price range of 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton; the low - level range is 65,000 - 68,000 yuan/ton, and the high - level range is 75,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Option strategy**: In a high - volatility environment, hold the short position of LC2511 - C - 75000 or call options with a strike price above 75,000 (an entry price above 2300 is more favorable) [10]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Unilateral strategy**: When the price reaches the high - level range, arrange short positions at high levels, and it is recommended to reduce positions or hold no positions during the National Day holiday [14]. - **Basis strategy**: It is expected that the basis will gradually strengthen after the festival [14]. - **Calendar spread strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and hold no positions during the National Day holiday [14]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive information**: Include cooperation agreements between enterprises, strong export performance of new energy vehicles, progress in the production lines of related enterprises, and policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [16][17]. - **Negative information**: Include the commissioning of new lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production projects and product quality supervision by the State Administration for Market Regulation [18][19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Not provided in the content 3.3 Futures and Price Data 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trend**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated widely, and the position scale decreased slowly. The price is expected to further weaken in the future [20]. - **Volatility**: The current implied volatility of at - the - money options is in the historical average range, but there is a possibility of a phased increase in the future [22]. - **Capital movement**: The current position scale shows signs of withdrawal, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the National Day holiday to avoid potential risks [24]. - **Calendar spread structure**: The term structure has changed from a back structure to a contango structure, and the possibility of further deepening of the contango structure is significant [25][26]. - **Basis structure**: This week, the basis of the main lithium carbonate contract strengthened with fluctuations, and the basis is likely to continue to rise after the National Day [32]. 3.3.2 Spot Price Data - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends this week, with some products rising and some falling [35]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profit of lithium salt enterprises purchasing external lithium ore has shown a marginal strengthening trend, while the production of lithium hydroxide has shown a marginal weakening trend, and the theoretical profits of downstream material factories have shown a marginal decline [36]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profits - The import profit of lithium carbonate has shown a marginal decline, while the export profit of lithium hydroxide has shown an upward trend [43]. 3.5 Fundamental Situation 3.5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - **Domestic mine production**: The production of domestic sample lithium mines showed different trends [46]. - **Overseas mine imports**: The import volume of lithium concentrates from different countries showed different trends [48]. - **Lithium ore inventory**: The total inventory of lithium ore available for sale decreased this week, while the port inventory increased [49]. 3.5.2 Upstream Lithium Salt Supply - **Lithium carbonate supply**: The total production of sample enterprises increased this week, with different trends in production from different raw materials [52]. - **Lithium carbonate net exports**: Not provided in the content - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased this week, with different trends in inventory in different sectors [64]. - **Lithium hydroxide supply**: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide is provided, with different trends in production from different processes [77]. 3.5.3 Mid - stream Material Factory Supply - **Material factory production**: The production of various materials showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [81]. - **Material factory inventory**: The inventory of various materials showed different trends [98]. 3.5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - **Power cell production**: The production of power cells increased this week, with different trends in different types of cells [104]. - **Lithium battery installation volume**: The seasonal trends of lithium battery installation volume in different fields are provided [107][109]. 3.5.5 New Energy Vehicles - **New energy vehicle production and sales**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend, with different trends in passenger and commercial vehicles [111][113][117]. - **Automobile inventory**: The inventory warning index of domestic automobile dealers is provided [119]. 3.5.6 Energy Storage - **Energy storage bidding scale**: The total scale of energy storage bidding power and capacity is provided, with seasonal trends [121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include the import rhythm, low domestic sugar inventory, typhoon damage, weakening Brazilian support, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic of SR2511 is mainly based on the import sugar price, and the pressure from the start of sugar beet production in the north has narrowed the 11 - 01 contract spread [6]. - The long - term trading logic of SR2601 is affected by the supply pressure of imported sugar and syrup premix, the expected difference in the new season's production, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [8]. - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The market is mainly trading the import rhythm, and attention should be paid to the change in out - of - quota import profit and the import of syrup and premix [2]. - Low domestic sugar inventory supports the price, but the sales volume in August was lower than expected, and the final inventory may not support the price effectively [2]. - Typhoon "Huajiaisha" damaged the sugarcane, but the impact is less than that of "Mojie" last year, and the final loss may be limited [2]. - The bullish support from Brazil is weakening, and the 26/27 season is expected to have a recovery increase in production [3]. - The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses the upper limit of the sugar price, and India may export 150 - 200 tons in the new year [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. - The basis strategy is to sell spot and buy 2511 futures to lock in the basis return profit; the spread strategy has no recommendation [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current volatility of 6.19% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in 3 years [12]. - Different hedging strategies are recommended for different scenarios such as high inventory and low inventory [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The unilateral long position of SR2511 has been stopped out; selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered; the long - short spread of SR2511 and SR2601 has left the market [15]. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" affected the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi; the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased; Brazilian sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased compared with the same period last year [16]. - **Negative Information**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started production, and the production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be flat or slightly increase; the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the first half of September in central and southern Brazil are expected to increase; the sugar production in the 2026/27 season in central and southern Brazil is expected to increase by 5.7% [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The weekly number of sugar ships waiting to be transported and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time) [18]. - Brazilian sugar export data for September (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - The sales data and industrial inventory data of domestic sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan in September at the beginning of October [21]. - The crushing data in the first ten days of September in central and southern Brazil [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The futures price rebounded from 5424 points and regained the 5500 support level. The position of the main contract SR2601 decreased after seasonal growth. The short - hedging position decreased, and foreign capital had more short positions. The 5500 level is a key position [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of the 11th contract may further expand. The market shows a back structure, and the 11 - 01 spread will rise and then fall [24]. - **Foreign Market**: The sugar price rebounded due to the typhoon, but the impact is limited. The overseas raw sugar price may fall to 15 cents, and the position has reached a record high, with an increase in non - commercial short positions [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The raw sugar futures show a near - strong and far - weak back structure, which is unfavorable for sugar mills to hedge, but they still need to find appropriate opportunities [28]. - **Internal and External Spread Tracking**: The internal and external prices are weak. The out - of - quota import window on the disk is sometimes open and sometimes closed, and the spot import window is open. The Zhengzhou sugar price may be under pressure [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net importer of sugar and has a quota system. The out - of - quota import profit of Brazilian sugar has been shrinking, and the import window has been closed. The import of syrup and premix from other Asian countries has increased, and the data in August shows an upward trend in Thai premix [33]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the 24/25 season, the estimated carry - over inventory is 66.97 tons, the estimated cumulative import is 470 tons, and the estimated import of syrup and premix is 110 tons [36]. - For the 25/26 season, the estimated domestic sugar production is 1120 tons, and other data are estimated based on the 24/25 season [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron alloy market shows a complex situation with multiple contradictory factors. There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand, as well as between anti - in - group competition expectations and weak reality, and the improvement of the term structure is accompanied by capital withdrawal [1][2]. - The short - term iron alloy market may experience a callback. Although the term structure has improved and some contract structures have changed from premium to discount, the lack of substantial progress in anti - in - group competition increases the risk of a sharp rise followed by a fall [2][13]. - The supply and demand of iron alloy are expected to decline. The production profit has been falling, and the demand is affected by the inventory accumulation of downstream products, which restricts the increase in demand for iron alloy [67]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Iron alloy production profit has declined since early September, but production remains at a high level, while downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the inventory of five major steel products has started to accumulate [1]. - Cost support, electricity price increase, and manganese ore supply disturbances: The electricity price in Ningxia has increased, and the spot price of ferrosilicon in some areas is lower than the cost. Although the manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disturbances need attention [1]. - Improvement of term structure and capital withdrawal: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has not. The trading volume of iron alloy has decreased, with the total position of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreasing for three consecutive weeks [2]. - Contradiction between anti - in - group competition expectations and weak reality: There is still an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action increases the risk of a sharp rise followed by a fall [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The iron alloy market may experience a short - term callback. The price range of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract is 5400 - 6400, and that of the ferromanganese 01 contract is 5500 - 6500. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5550 for the ferrosilicon 11 contract and near 5800 for the ferromanganese 01 contract [13]. - Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is no current basis strategy. It is not recommended to bottom - fish the 1 - 5 monthly spread immediately. The recommended hedging arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 01 spread of double - silicon near - 400 [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of ferrosilicon is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, and that of ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000 [17]. - Hedging recommendations: For inventory management, it is recommended to short iron alloy futures to lock in profits; for procurement management, it is recommended to buy iron alloy futures to lock in procurement costs [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry. Yunnan steel enterprises have taken substantial steps in anti - in - group competition, and a steel mill in Jiangsu has raised the ferrosilicon procurement price [18]. - Bearish information: The US will impose new high - tariff measures on imported products, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises has increased [19]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have shown different degrees of increase or decrease [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - It is necessary to pay attention to the specific changes in the Gabonese ore shipments and their impact on the manganese ore price, which in turn affects the cost of ferromanganese [22]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: The iron alloy price showed a doji on Friday. The closing price of the ferrosilicon 11 contract decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, and the total position decreased by 14.39%. The closing price of the ferromanganese 01 contract decreased by 1.94% week - on - week, and the total position decreased by 9.12% for three consecutive weeks [23]. - Term structure: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has deepened, which is bearish for the iron alloy price in the short term [27]. - Basis and monthly spread: The basis of iron alloy fluctuates slightly, and there is no recommended positive - spread strategy. It is not recommended to bottom - fish the 1 - 5 monthly spread immediately, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread may further weaken [16][28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - The profit of iron alloy has declined after a rebound. The downstream inventory of coking coal needs replenishment, which supports the coking coal price, but the increasing import pressure of coking coal will affect the cost of iron alloy [41]. - The profit of ferromanganese has remained relatively stable because its cost is mainly related to manganese ore, and the manganese ore price has been fluctuating at a low level due to sufficient supply [59]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of ferrosilicon is gradually declining, and the export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: The production profit of iron alloy has been falling, and the production is expected to decline, especially with the possible reduction in the output of ferromanganese in the southern production area during the flat - water season [67]. - Demand: Although the demand is expected to increase seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the profit of downstream products has declined, and the inventory has accumulated, which restricts the increase in demand for iron alloy [67]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production profit of ferrosilicon has declined significantly, and the output is expected to decline slightly. The production profit of ferromanganese is relatively stable, and the output is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [69]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The demand for iron alloy is affected by the inventory accumulation of downstream products and the decline in the profit of steel products, and the steel - making demand may decline. The decline in the export profit of ferrosilicon will also affect its export volume [73]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Given the high operating rate of iron alloy and weak downstream demand, the enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, but the warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In Q4, both domestic and overseas supply of LPG remains resilient, while the demand side faces greater challenges [1] - The price range for Q4 is estimated to be between 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton [2] - Recommended strategies include range - trading for single - side operations, selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts at high prices for monthly spreads, and buying overseas and shorting domestic at low prices for the domestic - overseas spread [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3, the domestic LPG price showed a pattern of first falling and then rising, affected by the crude oil market and a large number of warehouse receipts. The main contract price dropped from 4,500 yuan/ton to 3,770 yuan/ton, and the overseas CP contract price dropped from $600/ton in June to $520/ton in September [4][5] - From April to September this year, the domestic PG warehouse receipt volume was continuously at a seasonal high. Near - month prices were suppressed, the basis was mostly at a seasonal high, and the monthly spread was in a contango pattern, with the 9 - 10 spread reaching a minimum of about - 720 yuan/ton [8] - In Q3, the overseas price relationship was CP>FEI>MB. The MB price was relatively weak, the CP - FEI spread narrowed, and the FEI - MB spread widened [9] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Supply Still Has Resilience - **Middle East**: OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since May, but the export increment is not obvious. From January to August, the total LPG export was 32,252 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. It is expected that the monthly average export volume in Q4 will be around 3,800 - 3,900 KT, similar to that of last year's Q4 [11][12] - **United States**: In Q3, the US C3 production remained high, with an average of 2.85 million barrels/day. From January to August, the total LPG export was 45,455 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. It is expected that the Q4 export volume will remain high, with an estimated C3 production of 2.8 million barrels/day [16] 3.2 Asian Demand Faces Challenges - **India**: From January to August, the total LPG import was 14,947 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 7.08%. In Q4, the import volume will remain high but the incremental growth will not be significant, expected to be around 2 - 2.1 million tons/month [21][23] - **South Korea and Japan**: South Korea's LPG import volume is expected to remain high in Q4, supported by seasonal demand and chemical demand. Japan's LPG production has been decreasing year by year, and the demand is highly dependent on imports. There will be a seasonal increase in Q4 [25][28] - **China**: The PDH industry is in an expansion cycle. As of now, PDH has suffered losses, and there is a risk of a decline in chemical demand in Q4. The C4 demand and MTBE demand are also expected to decline seasonally [31][34] 3.3 Freight Rates Expected to Fluctuate at a High Level - Since the Sino - US trade friction in April, the freight rate from the US Gulf to the Far East has been rising. In Q4, the freight rate is expected to remain at a high level due to the resilient US export and the number of ships detouring the Cape of Good Hope remaining higher than in previous years [39] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Gas - oil ratio**: It is relatively neutral to high and may continue to rise if crude oil production increases in Q4 [44] - **PN spread**: It is relatively neutral to low and is expected to remain low in Q4 [46] - **PDH profit**: It is currently in a loss state and is expected to remain low in Q4 [48] 4.2 Overseas Supply - Demand Outlook - Supply will remain resilient in Q4, while demand in the Asian market has limited growth, mainly from seasonal factors. Chemical demand may be suppressed by profit decline [50] 4.3 Domestic Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: Domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level in Q4, but the import volume may be affected by PDH profit and maintenance [51][54] - **Demand**: Chemical demand will decline in Q4, while the increase in combustion demand will not be significant as this winter is likely to be a warm winter [55]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple price trends are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji apples. The recent rise in apple futures prices is mainly due to concerns about the good fruit rate, and the prices of early - harvested Fuji and Gansu Huaniu are higher than last year, setting the tone for the late Fuji opening price [2] - The near - end trading logic focuses on the good fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji, the opening price, and the new late - Fuji price trend. The market's bet on quality issues has led to a continuous rise in the futures market. The far - end contracts are weaker, with an expectation of price decline after a high opening, but the decline may be limited [3][4] - The apple market is currently in an uptrend, but the 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The main factors influencing apple prices are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji. Eastern apples have smaller fruit sizes and may have problems like reverse greening and chicken - claw marks due to rainy weather after bag - removal. Western apples also face similar issues, and their fruit sizes are smaller than usual [2] - The opening prices of Gala and early Fuji are good, with the early - harvested Fuji price 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year and Gansu Huaniu 1 yuan/kg higher [2] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The apple market's upward momentum continues. The 10 - contract reached a new high last week, and the winning positions hold more than 4000 net long positions. The 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, if worried about a high - yield season and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (25% at 8500 - 8600) and sell call options (50% at 20 - 30) to lock in profits and reduce costs [9] - For procurement management, if worried about high purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and a shortage of good - quality new - crop apples, enterprises can buy apple futures (50% at 8300 - 8400) and sell put options (75% at 50 - 60) to lock in purchase costs [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of September 17, national cold - storage inventory decreased. Steel Union data shows 12.18 tons, a 4.14 - ton decrease from last week, and Zhuochuang data shows 14.79 tons, a 6.02 - ton decrease. Shandong's cold - storage capacity ratio decreased [10] - This week, late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removal period. Western bag - removal was postponed by a week, and the progress is similar to the east. Shandong's late Fuji may have problems with reverse greening and coloring due to rainy weather [11] - Western early - harvested Fuji prices are 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year, and most are pre - ordered by merchants. Western late Fuji will be on the market after October 5, with large - scale listing in mid - October [11] - Gansu Huaniu has smaller fruit sizes and a lower commodity rate due to previous high - temperature and drought. The price is 1 yuan/kg higher than last year, but the large amount of fruit stored by farmers may not be favorable for the market [11] - The number of trucks arriving at three major markets in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a typhoon this week. With the approaching of festivals, the number of trucks increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [12] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Focus on the sales and remaining inventory of stored Fuji, as well as the weather, bag - removal, quality, and opening price of late Fuji [17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures prices rose, but the increase in the main contract was small. The total position is at the lowest level in the past 5 years but has increased recently. The winning positions have been increasing continuously. Technically, the main contract shows a fluctuating upward trend [17] 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The apple spread structure shows significant fluctuations in nearby contracts approaching the delivery month. The 10 - contract may be the strongest [19][20] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples in the 24/25 season is 0.3 yuan/kg, affected by the price drop of stored apples. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is yet to be determined [22] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Based on previous bagging data, the 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in national apple production, but the final output may decline compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly. The quality of Gala apples makes people worried about the quality of late Fuji [24][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since the listing of propylene on July 22, its price has been oscillating downward, affected by the "Anti-Involution" policy and device maintenance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include the industrial chain's commissioning progress, the impact of PDH profit on operation, the PP market's performance, the influence of the "Anti-Involution" policy, and potential delivery issues [1]. - The Q4 price range of propylene is estimated to be between 6,000 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Recommended strategies are range trading for the single - side, backwardation for the inter - month, and range trading for the PP - PL spread. Also, consider buying MA and shorting PL based on Iran's gas restrictions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - Since July 22, the main contract price of propylene has oscillated downward from a high of 6,694 yuan/ton to a low of 6,354 yuan/ton, influenced by the "Anti - Involution" policy and device fluctuations [2]. - The "Anti - Involution" policy, which involves assessing old petrochemical devices, mainly affects market expectations and sentiment, increasing price volatility [3]. - Device fluctuations in the Shandong market, such as Zhenhua's device malfunctions and adjustments by Jineng and Yulong based on the propylene - polypropylene spread, can cause significant price changes [3]. - The propylene basis has been expanding. The spot market is more sensitive to supply - demand changes, while the 01 contract is under pressure due to potential delivery issues and the influence of the PP market [5]. - The 01 - 02 month spread of propylene has been oscillating in the range of - 100 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, with a tendency towards backwardation due to the 01 contract being a mandatory delivery month [7]. - The propylene - polypropylene spread showed a V - shaped pattern in Q3, currently at a yearly low [9]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Focus on the Industrial Chain Commissioning Rhythm - From January to September, 808 million tons of propylene and 565 million tons of polypropylene (415 million tons of pellets and 150 million tons of powder) were commissioned, mostly as supporting capacities. The impact on the supply - demand gap by the end of the year depends on different commissioning scenarios [11]. - In the Shandong market, the supply - demand situation is more important. As of now, it is looser than in 2024. By the end of the year, different commissioning plans will lead to different supply - demand gaps [11]. 3.2 PDH Profit Remains Crucial - PDH and refinery catalytic cracking have a significant impact on the propylene trading market. In Q4, profit will remain a key factor. With propane in the seasonal peak, PDH is currently at a loss, and some factories plan maintenance. PP overcapacity also adds pressure [15][17]. 3.3 PP Operation Still Needs Key Attention - The price of the propylene main contract is highly correlated with the PP futures price. PP accounts for about 70% of propylene demand. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side profit - related operation fluctuations, demand - side performance during the peak season, the PP - propylene spread, and the impact of macro - policies [19]. 3.4 Continuous Tracking of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The "Anti - Involution" policy has increased market volatility since June, and its impact will be greater in Q4. The assessment of old devices is more for technological improvement, with a relatively small impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The coal market may affect market sentiment. The reduction of South Korea's cracking capacity will reduce imports to China, but domestic production can make up for it [24]. 3.5 Potential Delivery Issues - Propylene has high storage and transportation requirements. The current exchange settings have designated delivery areas and depots, with a 100 - yuan/ton discount for South China's depots. There may be delivery problems in South China, and the discount may not cover the friction costs [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation Feedback - PDH cost provides support. In Q4, propane prices are relatively strong, and the 01 PDH cost is about 6,400 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [27]. - The PP - PL spread is oscillating at a low level. Historically, the spread is mostly between 400 - 800 yuan/ton, currently around 500 yuan/ton, with a neutral short - term outlook [31]. - The olefin/methanol ratio is expected to decline in Q4 due to potential gas restrictions in Iran affecting methanol supply [33]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - From January to August, domestic propylene production was 394.4 million tons, a 13.21% year - on - year increase. In Q4, production is expected to remain high under high commissioning, and PDH profit is crucial for external supply [35][36]. - PP is expected to maintain high production in Q4, supporting propylene demand but with limited upward price space. Other downstream industries are also affected by profit and need continuous profit tracking [41]. - The Shandong market is more important for supply - demand balance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side PDH profit and propylene - polypropylene spread, and demand - side new project commissioning and the operation of main downstream industries [42][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].