1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting production decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook towards a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, the LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting production continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: The LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 98,800 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of - 240 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $12,461/ton, an LME spot premium of $38.60/ton, an LME inventory of 147,425 tons, and an inventory daily change of - 2,050 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,950 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 220 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $3,021/ton, the LME spot premium is - $24.94/ton, the LME inventory is 511,750 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 23,400 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 115 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $3,127/ton, an LME spot premium of - $36.25/ton, an LME inventory of 107,625 tons, and an inventory daily change of 1,300 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 130,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,500 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $16,760/ton, the LME spot premium is - $143.68/ton, the LME inventory is 255,162 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 70 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $1,994/ton, the LME spot premium is - $46.54/ton, the LME inventory is 241,925 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 3,350 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 327,680 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,520 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $40,250/ton, the LME spot premium is - $1.00/ton, the LME inventory is 5,420 tons, and the inventory daily change is 90 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Copper: The concentrate supply is tight, smelting production shows high growth, power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting production continues to grow, the galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak [2].

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 公募基金销售新规正式落地 美军突袭加拉加斯，抓捕马杜罗夫妇并押往美国，美方宣布将暂时"管理"委内 瑞拉并深度介入石油产业。美国当周初请失业金低于预期，强化经济韧性，削弱 1 月降息概率，推升长端收益率，特朗普明确将于 1 月择时公布鲍威尔继任人选， 称已有心仪人选且未改变。国内 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1%，升至扩张区间， 经济景气水平总体回升。公募基金销售新规正式落地，放宽了债基赎回费，个人 持有债基超过 7 日、机构持有债基超过 30 日可免收赎回费，缓解市场对债基流 动性、交易属性弱化的担忧。 重点品种：原油、国债 原油： 节日期间油价小幅震荡回落。但收盘期间，美国入侵委内瑞拉对其发动 空袭，同时宣称已经抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其带离委内瑞拉。短期委内 瑞拉将陷入内乱，袭击发生前其石油出口已经受到美国封锁压制，袭击发生后在 美国代理人上台前预计将持续受到更大影响。短期油价受此影响偏多。中期影响 在于此前委内瑞拉石油生产主要依赖中国和俄罗斯，美国发动军事打击后预计开 始清场，产量将在一定时间内受到影响。长期而言，关注美 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，1月4日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了365亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量365亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量365亿元。Wind数据显示，当日4701亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼4336亿元。本周央行公开市场 | | | 将有13236亿元逆回购到期，其中，周一至周三分别到期4823亿元、3125亿元、5288亿元。此外，周四还将有11000亿 | | | 元买断式逆回购到期，周五将有600亿元国库现金定存到期。 | | | 2、国务院印发《固体废物综合治理行动计划》提出，到2030年，大宗固体废弃物年综合利用量达到45亿吨，主要再生 资源年循环利用量达到5.1亿吨。依法依规淘汰落后产能。原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施 | | | 的选矿项目。聚焦工业、城镇、农林等主要产废领域，全链条综合治理。 | | 宏观 | 3、文化和旅游部发布数据显示，2026年元旦假期，全国国内出游1.42亿人次，国内出游总花费847.89亿元。冬季特色 | | 消息 | 文旅产品供给丰富，冰雪游、避寒游、跨年游人气旺盛。 | | | ...

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of further institutional improvements, renewed capital expansion, and continuous industrial empowerment, the long - term and steady bullish pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital protection, and industrial drive." The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December is likely to boost global capital flows and risk appetite, and continuous capital market reforms will further strengthen the foundation for the steady bull market. With the gradual implementation of the key meeting's tone in December, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut will resonate, potentially increasing market risk appetite again [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4574.00, 4555.60, 4531.00, and 4489.00 respectively, with increases of 29.80, 27.40, 28.00, and 29.60, and increases of 0.66%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.66% respectively. The trading volumes were 74003.00, 8279.00, 35116.00, and 7056.00, and the open interests were 113155.00, 20301.00, 118268.00, and 31235.00, with changes in open interests of 1266.00, 3152.00, 8332.00, and 1133.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2986.80, 2980.00, 2979.80, and 2966.40 respectively, with increases of 21.20, 20.00, 22.80, and 22.20, and increases of 0.71%, 0.68%, 0.77%, and 0.75% respectively. The trading volumes were 32570.00, 3336.00, 15385.00, and 2310.00, and the open interests were 47489.00, 6153.00, 33343.00, and 10023.00, with changes in open interests of - 211.00, 704.00, 3314.00, and 60.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7223.60, 7174.40, 7133.20, and 6940.60 respectively, with increases of 3.20, 2.80, 3.20, and 5.00, and increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.07% respectively. The trading volumes were 28350.00, 2736.00, 53906.00, and 11102.00, and the open interests were 67344.00, 3282.00, 136107.00, and 49027.00, with changes in open interests of - 77.00, 56.00, - 2042.00, and 1039.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7361.80, 7286.20, 7119.80, and 6880.00 respectively, with increases of 49.40, 55.00, 52.80, and 56.80, and increases of 0.68%, 0.76%, 0.75%, and 0.83% respectively. The trading volumes were 126483.00, 16755.00, 56716.00, and 17722.00, and the open interests were 149811.00, 35293.00, 127987.00, and 65089.00, with changes in open interests of - 2749.00, 5989.00, 6429.00, and 154.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month are - 18.40, - 6.80, - 49.20, and - 75.60 respectively, compared with previous values of - 16.80, - 7.20, - 49.80, and - 81.80 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index was 4620.73, with a trading volume of 169.26 billion lots and a total trading value of 4331.41 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.20% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the index was 3027.52, with a trading volume of 35.89 billion lots and a total trading value of 1104.70 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.24% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index was 7256.79, with a trading volume of 173.48 billion lots and a total trading value of 3285.59 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.02% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index was 7370.94, with a trading volume of 243.53 billion lots and a total trading value of 4227.79 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.81% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had varying increases or decreases. For example, the energy industry decreased by 0.52%, while the raw materials industry increased by 0.94%, the industrial industry increased by 0.89%, and the optional consumption industry increased by 0.58%. Other industries also had their respective changes [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Futures - Spot Basis**: The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 21.93, - 39.13, - 49.33, and - 99.53 respectively [1]. - **SSE 50 Futures - Spot Basis**: The previous values of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH far - quarter - SSE 50 were - 7.84, - 14.64, - 14.84, and - 28.24 respectively [1]. - **CSI 500 Futures - Spot Basis**: The previous values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were 4.21, - 54.79, - 170.99, and - 374.39 respectively [1]. - **CSI 1000 Futures - Spot Basis**: The previous values of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far - quarter - CSI 1000 were - 49.42, - 127.62, - 195.02, and - 433.22 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Major Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3919.98, 13368.99, 8111.91, and 3205.01 respectively, with increases of 0.07%, 0.27%, 0.35%, and 0.41% respectively compared to the values two days ago [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25774.14, 50402.39, 6909.79, and 24340.06 respectively, with changes of - 0.11%, 1.81%, 0.46%, and 0.23% respectively compared to the values two days ago [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Exchange Rate**: On December 23, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 7.02 mark for the first time since October 2024, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 7.03 mark, up nearly 100 points. The weakening of the US dollar index and the release of year - end settlement demand are the main drivers for the RMB's rise [2]. - **A - share Market**: The total trading volume of A - shares this year has exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time in history. The annual average turnover rate is close to 1.74%, expected to reach a new high since 2016. Nineteen stocks have a trading volume of over one trillion yuan this year [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver have reached new historical highs. COMEX gold futures have broken through the $4510 mark, up more than 1%. COMEX silver futures have risen more than 4%, reaching a maximum of $71.79 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures have risen 10% and 7% respectively. Since the beginning of this year, the gold price has risen more than 71%, and the silver price has risen about 147% [2]. - **Government Policies**: The President emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their main business, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, enhance core functions and competitiveness, and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation. The Ministry of Transport expects that China will complete more than 3.6 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment this year, with more than 2000 kilometers of new high - speed railways and about 8000 kilometers of new highways added [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Real Estate**: The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference has deployed key tasks for 2026, including local governments using their autonomy in real - estate regulation, adjusting and optimizing policies, and promoting the construction of a new real - estate development model [2]. - **Photothermal Power Generation**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued an opinion aiming to reach a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts for photothermal power generation by 2030 [2]. - **Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure**: As of the end of November, the total number of electric - vehicle charging facilities in China reached 19.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 52%. Among them, public charging facilities were 4.625 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.0%, and private charging facilities were 14.697 million, a year - on - year increase of 57.8% [2]. - **Cultural Relics**: The National Cultural Heritage Administration has attached great importance to the media reports about the "Jiangnan Spring" scroll from the Nanjing Museum appearing in the auction market and has sent a working group to Nanjing. The Jiangsu provincial government has also established an investigation team [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The copper price closed 2.8% lower at night due to profit - taking. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss. The smelting output is still in high - growth overall. The power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate is weak. The supply disruption in the copper ore market has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation towards a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price closed lower at night, following the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while the smelting output continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Price and Supply - Demand Information - **Copper**: Night - time copper price down 2.8%, affected by profit - taking. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profit is at the margin, and smelting output has a high - growth trend. Market supply - demand may turn to deficit due to supply disturbances [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc price closed lower at night, following the non - ferrous trend. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output is growing. The overall difference in supply - demand is not significant, but market sentiment needs attention [2]. 3.2 Metal Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 98,720 | - 340 | 12,188 | 31.35 | 157,025 | - 1,550 | | Aluminum | 22,515 | - 240 | 2,951 | - 37.51 | 521,050 | 1,450 | | Zinc | 23,200 | 145 | 3,084 | - 30.00 | 106,875 | 7,900 | | Nickel | 125,310 | - 5,360 | 15,760 | - 170.31 | 255,696 | 1,092 | | Lead | 17,440 | - 85 | 2,009 | - 43.70 | 248,900 | - 4,200 | | Tin | 333,770 | - 12,050 | 40,010 | 95.00 | 4,895 | 220 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined, with the T2603 contract falling 0.3% and the trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds generally increased. The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds mostly decreased [2]. - The 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield rose to 1.859%. The central bank's net injection of funds in the open market and the loose year - end market liquidity, along with the expected introduction of loose policies in early 2026, provided some support for the prices of short - term treasury bond futures [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of all treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the T2603 contract dropping 0.3%. The trading volume of each contract varied, and the open interest of most contracts decreased. The cross - period spreads also changed [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates increased, while SHIBOR overnight decreased [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally increased. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.32bp to 1.86%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.87bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds mostly decreased. The 10 - year US, German, and Japanese treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp, 2bp, and 0.2bp respectively [2]. Macro News and Strategies - **Domestic**: The central bank's net injection of 4150 billion yuan in the open market, the decrease in Shibor overnight to a new low since August 2023, the decline in industrial enterprise profits in November, the measures to stabilize the real estate market, and the expected implementation of more active fiscal and monetary policies in 2026 [3]. - **International**: The significant increase of 4.3% in the initial value of the US Q3 real GDP, the remarks of the US Treasury Secretary on the inflation target, and the decline in US bond yields [3].

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下， | | 纽约市场盘中一度大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封跌停； | | 沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%，夜盘进一步下跌4%。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX | | 白银期货收跌7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。 | | 中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体。中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 | | 2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 | | 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东等区域，组织"正 ...

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 贵金属集体回调 中国人民银行副行长陆磊发文称，《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和 相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》从机制上明确了数字人民币将从数字现金时 代迈入数字存款货币（Digital Deposit Money）时代。特朗普暗示，他已经有 了一位心目中的美联储下一任主席人选，但并不急于宣布，可能会在 1 月宣布。 特朗普承认，乌克兰领土问题实际上"仍未谈妥"，顿巴斯地区的非军事化区划 设等"棘手"问题尚待解决。日本央行 12 月政策会议纪要显示，多位委员认为 该国实际利率仍处于极低水平，暗示未来将继续加息。 贵金属： 贵金属波动加剧，白银大幅调整。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于 预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引 发市场质疑，但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分 化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。 疲软的就业数据支持美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形 成提振。从长期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, night - session soybean and rapeseed meals fluctuated and closed lower. Chinese procurement plans are advancing steadily, providing support for US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the expectation of tight supply in the imported soybean market has pushed up the price of soybean meal, but the abundant long - term supply will continue to pressure the price [2]. - For oils and fats, night - session oils and fats fluctuated. The improvement of Malaysian palm oil export data boosted the palm oil market, but concerns about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan have emerged. Soybean oil is under pressure due to the expected high yield, and the short - term fundamental improvement of oils and fats is limited. The inventory pressure in Southeast Asian palm oil producing areas is difficult to relieve significantly in the short term, so the rebound of oils and fats is restricted and they are expected to continue to fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7818, 8512, 9040, 2774, 2465, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 18, - 56, - 6, - 16, 6, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.23%, - 0.65%, - 3.15%, - 0.57%, 0.24%, and 0.29% respectively. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4058, 1064, 49.26, and 304 respectively. The price changes were 48, - 8, 0, and - 4, with percentage changes of 1.20%, - 0.75%, 0.12%, and - 1.27% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of various oils, meals, and peanuts in different regions had different percentage changes. The spot basis also varied, such as 456 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and 300 for Nantong soybean meal [1]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spreads between different products, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Import and Profit - The import profit and loss of various agricultural products, such as Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed, had different values compared to the previous ones [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 28,264, 0, 3,786, 24,830, 0, and 0 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - From December, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained above 2 million tons. As of December 26, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 7.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.9 million tons for the whole month of December, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 600,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - A US private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2]. - As of December 27, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 97.9%, up from 97.6% last week, compared to 98.2% last year and a five - year average of 96.7%. The soybean harvesting rate was 0.1%, the same as last year and the five - year average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Copper prices rose by over 2% during the weekend night session, hitting a new all - time high. The supply of refined copper concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow. Power investment is stable; automobile production and sales are growing positively; home appliance production is in negative growth; and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in the copper ore market have led to an expected shift in the global copper supply - demand balance towards a deficit [2]. - Zinc prices rose during the weekend night session. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, indicating a temporary shortage in concentrate supply, while smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down; automobile production and sales are growing positively; home appliance production is in negative growth; and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Market Performance - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 98,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 365 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 12,133 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 13.16 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 158,575 tons, with a daily increase of 825 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,195 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 210 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,957 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 35.59 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 519,600 tons, with no daily change [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,030 yuan/ton, with a basis of 55 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,087 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 29.14 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 98,975 tons, with a daily decrease of 275 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 4,020 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,660 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 170.66 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 254,604 tons, with a daily increase of 216 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,000 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 42.30 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 253,100 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,850 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 335,020 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,840 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 42,490 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 65.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 4,675 tons, with a daily increase of 50 tons [2].