| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 2025/7/4 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | | | | | IF当月 IF下月 | | | | | IF下季 IF隔季 | | | | 前两日收盘价 3921.00 3903.20 | | | | | 3894.20 3856.20 | | | | 前日收盘价 3946.60 3928.00 | | | | | 3918.00 3879.00 | | | | 涨跌 27.00 25.80 沪深300 | | | | | 26.20 24.80 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold and silver prices declined due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June, which cooled the expectation of an early Fed rate cut. The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, and the US dollar is weak. The Fed is maintaining a wait - and - see stance, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Caution is needed regarding the uncertainty of Trump's policies as the July tariff suspension deadline approaches [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts, the prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 decreased, with respective changes of - 5.92, - 5.80, - 28.00, - 27.00 and percentage changes of - 0.76%, - 0.74%, - 0.31%, - 0.30%. For example,沪金2508 is now at 773.00 compared to the previous close of 778.92 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts vary. For instance, the open interest of沪金2508 is 98320 and its trading volume is 53873 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, London Gold (in USD/oz), Shanghai Silver T + D, and London Silver (in USD/oz) have different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 5.48 with a change rate of 0.71%, while London Gold decreased by 6.09 with a change rate of - 0.79% [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. The上期所白银库存 increased by 2133.00 kg, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 262,617.32 and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 902370 [2]. Related Derivatives - **ETF and Speculator Positions**: The positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators in gold and silver have changed. For example, the spdr gold ETF position increased by 1.00 ton, and the CFTC speculator net position in gold decreased by 1451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy and Data**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnam, not in addition to the existing 10%. US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the initial jobless claims reached a six - week low. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month [5].

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250703申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | 幅波动 | ...

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人，自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长，预 期为增长 9.8 万人，5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全 消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融 资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢 记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。 深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好 资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任 务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域 风险。央行近日发文明确，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币 10 万元以上（含 10 万元）现金交易的，贵金属和宝石交易从业机构应当履行反洗钱义务进行上 报，但刷卡消费不受影响。多位专家对此表示，该消息与百姓日常买金关系不 大。 重点品种： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The unexpected decrease in the US ADP employment in June intensified the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed this year. The approaching deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs made the market uneasy, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill raised the expectation of fiscal deficit, leading to a weak US dollar. Although Fed officials continued to maintain a wait - and - see attitude and mentioned the possibility of a rate cut as early as July with pre - conditions, the progress of trade negotiations was limited. The market might be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies became clear, the expectation of rate cut would be further clarified. Gold faced hesitation in upward movement due to its high price, and investors should be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the hype of tariff escalation as the July tariff suspension deadline approached [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 775.90, 780.04, 8830.00, and 8872.00 respectively, with daily increases of 2.16 (0.28%), 2.04 (0.26%), 83.00 (0.95%), and 87.00 (0.99%) [2]. - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 103401, 83453, 249023, and 174093 respectively, and the trading volumes were 73175, 21045, 323881, and 34757 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were - 5.57, - 9.71, - 93.00, and - 135.00 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/oz) were 770.33, 773.00, and 3356.93 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.71 (- 0.22%), 4.21 (0.55%), and 19.6 (0.59%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8737.00, with a daily change of - 68.00 (- 0.77%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/oz) was 36.55, with a daily change of 0.53 (1.48%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 4.14, 42, 88.17, 7.14, and 7.44 respectively, compared with previous values of 4.26, 38, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were 18,456 kg, 1,338,659 kg, 37,048,200 units, and 500,183,447 units respectively, with changes of 3.00 kg, - 185.00 kg, no change, and - 1026742 units compared to the previous values [2]. Related Markets - **Indices and Rates**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and USD/CNY were 96.7788, 6227.42, 4.3, 69.15, and 7.1617 respectively, with daily changes of 0.14%, 0.47%, 0.94%, 0.01%, and 0.00% [2]. - **Derivatives**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold were 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486 units, and 32895 units respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, 481 units, and - 1451 units [2]. Macro News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, far below the expected increase of 98,000. Service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September [3]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Brussels. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China - EU leaders' meeting was an important one at a critical juncture. China hoped to summarize the past 50 - year experience of China - EU relations, plan the future 50 - year cooperation, and send positive signals. China was willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation with the EU [3]. - The US Department of Defense said that the Iranian nuclear facilities were estimated to have been destroyed, and the Iranian nuclear program was postponed by about 1 - 2 years [3]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam's exports to the US would be subject to a 20% tariff, and trans - shipped goods would be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose, with the T2509 contract up 0.11% and an increase in open interest. Short - term market interest rates generally declined, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China also mostly decreased. Overseas, 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan all increased. The domestic economic environment has both positive and negative factors, but the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for Treasury bond futures prices [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: Yields of Treasury bond futures generally rose, with T2512 having the highest increase of 0.16%. Open interest of most contracts changed, with T2509 and others increasing. Trading volume varied by contract, and open interest increased in some contracts and decreased in others. The cross - period spreads of some contracts changed [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined, with SHIBOR7 down 3.3bp, DR007 down 4.85bp, and GC007 down 6.9bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally decreased, with the 10Y yield down 1.08bp to 1.64%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 22.82bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 4bp, 4bp, and 1.5bp respectively [2] Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 2, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [3] - **Economic Outlook**: Many foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth. Experts believe that macro - policies need to be further strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3] - **Regulatory Policies**: The CSRC emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, and promoting capital market reform. The central government is paying more attention to fiscal policies for stable growth, with some ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds to be issued ahead of schedule [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On July 2, money market interest rates mostly declined, and US Treasury bond yields collectively rose, driven by factors such as the Trump tax reform bill, the US - Vietnam trade agreement, and market supply - demand changes [3] - **Market Analysis**: Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, with the 10 - year active bond yield down to 1.636%. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal at the beginning of the month and the decline in Shibor short - term varieties kept the market funds relatively loose. The US economic data was mixed, but the US - Vietnam trade agreement led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields. The domestic economic climate generally expanded, and the central bank's supportive monetary policy will support Treasury bond futures prices [3]

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 美国参议院表决结果通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，法案将送交众议院。美 国总统特朗普表示，有信心税收法案能在众议院获得通过。中央财经委员会召 开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问 题。会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投 标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层 设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经国际贵金属 期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.28%报 3349.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期 货涨 0.20%报 36.25 美元/盎司。特朗普威胁对日本加征关税加剧贸易担忧，美 联储暗示可能降息，加上中东地缘风险持续，共同推动避险资金流入贵金属市 场济。 重点品种：黄金、集运、铜 集运欧线：EC 午后放量拉升，08 合约收于 1904.9 点，上涨 7.8%。最新一期 SCFIS 欧线表现超预期，同时近期其他联盟尚未明显跟降，7 ...

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | 20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.488 102.498 | 102.632 102.638 | 106.205 106.160 | 106.295 106.255 | 109.005 108.895 | 109.040 108.930 | 120.74 120.42 | 120.6 120.29 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.006 | 0.045 | 0.040 | 0.110 | 0.110 | 0.320 | 0.310 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/7/2 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3906.40 | 3893.20 | 3885.80 | 3855.60 | 前日收盘价 | 3911.60 | 3895.00 | 3886.00 | 3850.20 | | | 涨跌 | 3.80 | 0.40 | -1.00 | -6.40 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.10 | ...