Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Although the terminal demand shows signs of stabilization and the steel mills' profits are recovering, factors such as tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of demand continuation need to be considered [3]. - The iron ore market is also expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Despite the support from iron ore demand due to the potential increase in blast furnace restarts, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventories [3]. - The ferroalloy market may see stronger support below driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the peak season performance of terminal steel demand and the digestion of market inventories [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Most futures contracts showed price changes. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan (-0.1%), the coke 05 contract decreased by 4 yuan (-0.2%), the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 13 yuan (-1.2%), and the coking coal 05 contract decreased by 9 yuan (-1.0%). Among steel products, the rebar 01 contract decreased by 28 yuan (-0.9%), and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased by 6 yuan (0.2%) [2]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: Some ratios and spreads changed. For instance, the coke inter - period (1 - 5 spread) increased from 104 to 107, and the coal - coke ratio (01 contract) increased from 1.52 to 1.54 [2]. Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In the coke spot market, prices remained stable. In the coking coal spot market, some prices remained unchanged, while the import Mongolian 3 (clean coal) at Shaheyi decreased from 1138 to 1132. In the steel product spot market, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed slight decreases in some regions [2]. Profit - **Profit Changes**: The coke simulation profit decreased from 26 to - 399, the steel mill profit on the disk decreased slightly from - 50 to - 53, and the steel product simulation profit increased from 263 to 272 [3]. Macro News - The State Council Tariff Commission increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84 starting from 12:01 on April 10, and US President Trump authorized a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions [3]. Industry Information - As of April 8, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Possibly weak in the short term [1] - Zinc: Possibly weak in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Possibly fluctuate in the short term [1] - Nickel: Possibly fluctuate in the short term [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the short - term trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices. Factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes affect these metal prices. Copper and zinc may be weak due to US tariff concerns and supply - related factors, while aluminum and nickel may fluctuate because of factors like supply - demand balance and cost uncertainties [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices resumed their decline due to US tariff concerns. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable, with power investment driven by the grid, growing home appliance production, and potential growth in automotive copper demand. However, export changes need attention. Copper prices may be weak in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis should be monitored [1] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices fell due to US tariffs. Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic demand in sectors like automotive, infrastructure, and home appliances is positive, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply in 2025, and the previous price drop has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may be weak in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be watched [1] Aluminum - Night - time Shanghai aluminum prices dropped 1.11%. After alumina reached a low level, the profit on the futures market was low, and bottom - fishing sentiment led to a small rebound. However, supply is still sufficient, limiting the upside. Downstream demand continued to recover in April, with increased orders and operating rates in sectors like profiles and alloys. Considering global risk - aversion and the ongoing destocking of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum prices may fluctuate in the short term [1] Nickel - Night - time Shanghai nickel prices dropped 0.37%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and the discount of pure nickel to nickel sulfate has widened, limiting the downside of nickel prices. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may increase nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt inventory is low, which may drive up prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly in consolidation. Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 73,490 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 8,588 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 34.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 213,450 tons, and the daily change was 3,225 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 19,720 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,338 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 42.67 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 452,525 tons, and the daily change was - 2,175 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,553 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 12.15 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 125,825 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 119,280 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,630 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 14,150 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 211.53 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 202,938 tons, and the daily change was 630 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,545 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,870 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 29.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 235,725 tons, and the daily change was - 125 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 266,430 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 32,175 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,435 tons, and the daily change was 445 tons [2]

申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250409 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 交易咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | 原油 | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 478.6 | 478.7 | 60.96 | 60.68 | 61.62 | 61.20 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 510.1 | 507.0 | 62.32 | 62.00 | 64.36 | 63.98 | | | 涨跌 | -31.5 | -28.3 | -1.36 | -1.32 | -2.74 | -2.78 | | | 涨跌幅 | -6.18% | -5.58% | -2.18% | -2.13% | -4.26% | -4.35% | | | 成交量 | 246,401 | 91,448 | 563,563 | 385,336 | 881,698 | 54 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping European route is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View of the Report - The EC in the container shipping European route weakened during intraday trading. The 06 contract closed at 1767 points, down 8.32%, hitting a new low since March. The 08 contract fell 12.38%, and the closing price was basically the same as the 06 contract. The expectation difference for the peak season continued to narrow, and it was doubtful whether the seasonal peak season from May to August could be realized. The current freight rates of shipping companies have not changed much. In the first half of April, most shipping companies continued the quotes at the end of March, and there was a small increase in the second half. The freight rates in April tended to stabilize, and the average price of a 40 - foot container in the 16th week was about $2300. Some shipping companies have announced their online quotes for May, with the quotes for 40 - foot containers ranging from $2337 to $4545. The average weekly capacity put into operation by shipping companies in May exceeded 300,000 TEU, and the increase efforts of each shipping company varied. Under the influence of the uncertainty of high - tariffs, shipping companies may start a price - cut game to preserve more profits instead of betting on the peak - season demand. It is expected that the EC will continue its weak pattern in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price of EC2504 was 1500.9 points, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of 772 and a unilateral open interest of 1736. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 138 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2506 was 1767 points, down 8.32%, with a trading volume of 74206 and a unilateral open interest of 32760. The net long position of the top 20 members was 712 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2508 was 1768 points, down 12.38%, with a trading volume of 36214 and a unilateral open interest of 28249. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2510 was 1270.1 points, down 9.40%, with a trading volume of 14176 and a unilateral open interest of 15731 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2512 was 1459.7 points, down 9.91%, with a trading volume of 3296 and a unilateral open interest of 3132 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2602 was 1286 points, down 11.60%, with a trading volume of 2658 and a unilateral open interest of 2458 [1] - The total trading volume was 131322, and the total unilateral open interest was 84066. The net long position of the top 20 members was 574 [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest SCFIS index was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% week - on - week [1] - The latest SCFI was $1336 per TEU, up 1.4% week - on - week [1] - The latest TCI (20GP) was $1660 per TEU, with no change [1] - The latest TCI (40GP) was $2737 per TEU, with no change [1] - The basis difference on the previous trading day was - 462.58 points, and the basis difference on the day was - 344.58 points, a change of 118 points [1] Spot Market Data - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route was 488775 TEU, with no change. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, container ships over 17000 TEU, 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships were 2.4%, 3.2%, 0.6%, and 2.7% respectively [4] - The average speed of container ships was 13.95 knots. The speed of container ships over 17000 TEU was 15.7 knots, and the speed of 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships was 15.3 knots [4] - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 229100 TEU, in Hamburg was 98200 TEU, and in Singapore was 335300 TEU [4] - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 8, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal was 2, and the south - bound traffic volume was 1 [4] - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000 TEU, 6500 TEU, and 2500 TEU container ships were $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：市场分化，原油领跌 美国总统特朗普签署煤炭相关的四个行政令。特朗普助手表示，首个行政命令将 指示所有机构结束对煤炭行业的所有歧视性政策。第二项命令将指示暂停关闭燃 煤电厂。第三项命令则有关电网可靠性。第四项命令涉及（对抗）那些反对煤炭 政策的民主党州。从央行、金融监管总局、国资委等多部门密集部署，到中央汇 金公司积极发挥类"平准基金"作用，再到全国社保基金理事会、国有资本运营 公司、央国企集团、保险机构、上市公司"真金白银"实施增持、回购，4 月 7 日以来的稳市"组合拳"快速出手、协调发力，向市场传递了"稳住股市"的强 烈信号。国内商品期货夜盘，原油合约收跌 2.93%报 467.6 元/桶。沪金收涨 0.58% 报 719.94 元/克，沪银收涨 0.39%报 7704 元/千克。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、股指 原油：原油夜盘下跌 2.93%。特朗普威胁称如果中国不取消 34%的报复性关税， 将对中国商品额外加征 50%的关税。中国商务部表示，中国 "将奉陪到底"。特 朗普的关税政策加剧了人们对全球经济衰退的担忧。美国石油学会数据显示， ...

报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及国家/地区政策、国内外宏观环境和产业链影 响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 申万期货品种策略日报-黑色20250409 分析师：冉宇蒙 从业资格号：F3085160 投资咨询号：Z0016375 | | | | | 电话：021-50586040 邮箱：ranym@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 焦炭01合约 | 焦炭05合约 | 焦煤01合约 | 焦煤05合约 | 动力煤01合约 | 动力煤05合约 | | | 前日收盘价 | 1631 | 1527 | 1071 | 926 | 801 | 801 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1665 | 1594 | 1099 | 977 | 801 | 801 | | | 涨跌 | -34 | -67 | -28 | -51 | 0 | 0 | | | 涨跌幅% | -2.0% | -4.2% | -2.5% | -5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/4/9 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3480.80 | 3468.80 | 3452.60 | 3410.80 | 前日收盘价 | 3598.60 | 3574.60 | 3543.80 | 3495.80 | | | 涨跌 | 112.60 | 95.80 | 89.60 | 85.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 3.23 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/4/9 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7628 | 8758 | 9348 | 3164 | 2715 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -22 | 18 | 99 | 108 | 117 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.29% | 0.21% | -3.15% | 3.53% | 4.50% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，4月8日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1674亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量1674 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1674亿元。Wind数据显示，当日649亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，当日净投放1025亿元。 | | | 2、国务院总理李强同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话。李强表示，双方要推动新一次中欧战略、经贸、绿色、数字领 | | | 域高层对话尽早举行。李强指出，中国今年的宏观政策充分考虑了各种不确定因素，也有充足的储备政策工具，完全 能够对冲外部不利影响，对保持自身经济持续健康发展充满信心。中国将继续坚定不移扩大开放，同包括欧盟在内的 | | | 世界各国加强合作，分享发展机遇。 | | | 3、商务部新闻发言人就美方威胁升级对华关税发表谈话指出，美方威胁进一步对华加征50%关税，中方对此坚决反对 。如果美方升级关税措施落地，中方将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。美方对华加征所谓"对等关税"毫无根据， | | | 是典型的单边霸凌做法，中方已经采取的反制措施是为了维护自身主权安全发展利益，维护正常的国际贸易秩序，完 | | 宏观 | 全是正当 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins traded in a consolidative manner. Due to the US tariff hikes and increased crude oil supply, international crude oil prices dropped significantly, exerting pressure on polyolefins at the opening. For polyolefins in the refining and chemical segment, the increase in OPEC supply suppresses oil prices, which helps repair the production profit of oil - based products. However, the tariff hikes increase the cost of PDH - process PP and are unfavorable for global commodity terminal demand, directly affecting the demand for chemical products. In the short term, the market will inevitably be impacted. Besides monitoring cost - side fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the demand side in the dual - circulation economy, and whether the domestic economy can continue to grow in the second quarter to offset the negative impact of US tariff hikes on demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **LL Futures**: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7205, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7236, a decline of 31, and a decline rate of 0.43%. The trading volume was 2517, the open interest was 9238, and the change in open interest was 472. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 121 (previous value - 84), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 101 (previous value 59), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 20 (previous value 25) [2]. - **PP Futures**: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7081, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7118, a decline of 37, and a decline rate of 0.52%. The trading volume was 2450, the open interest was 3231, and the change in open interest was 1392. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 119 (previous value - 79), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 71 (previous value 45), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 48 (previous value 34) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current price of methanol futures is 2372 yuan/ton (previous value 2380 yuan/ton), the price of Shandong propylene is 6650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of South China propane is 616 dollars/ton (previous value 577 dollars/ton), the price of PP recycled materials is 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of North China powder is 7070 yuan/ton (previous value 7080 yuan/ton), and the price of plastic film is 8800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **LL Spot**: The current price in the East China market is 7650 - 8200 yuan/ton (previous value 7700 - 8250 yuan/ton), in the North China market is 7550 - 8050 yuan/ton (previous value 7600 - 8100 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7750 - 8150 yuan/ton (previous value 7850 - 8200 yuan/ton) [2]. - **PP Spot**: The current price in the East China market is 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the North China market is 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous value 7200 - 7250 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton) [2]. Crude Oil Market Information - On Tuesday (April 8), the settlement price of the May 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.58 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.88 - $61.75. The settlement price of the June 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.82 per barrel, down $1.39 or 2.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.34 - $65.21 [2].