Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - With recent progress in trade negotiations, the US dollar index has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. Amid the overall rise and fall of commodities, silver has also corrected. Before the new tariff deadline, there has been a peak in negotiations. After the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and a 15% tariff agreement with the EU (lower than previous expectations), risk aversion has cooled. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a July rate cut remains low, and the market is focusing on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The rebound of US CPI has further cooled the short - term rate cut expectation, and the market is watching this week's non - farm payrolls performance. Although US economic data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Overall, gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 770.68 and 772.84 respectively, with price drops of - 4.10 and - 4.16, and declines of - 0.53% and - 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9201.00 and 9218.00 respectively, with price drops of - 11.00 and - 16.00, and declines of - 0.12% and - 0.17%. [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 209675 and 112653 respectively, and the trading volumes are 256019 and 31873 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 398421 and 210928 respectively, and the trading volumes are 1203307 and 160014 respectively. [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 0.90 and - 1.26 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 15.00 and - 32.00 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.58 and 764.91 respectively, with price drops of - 2.03 and - 3.94, and declines of - 0.26% and - 0.51%. The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3314.18, with a price drop of - 22.04 and a decline of - 0.66%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9186.00, with a price drop of - 186.00 and a decline of - 1.98%. The previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.15, with a price increase of 0.02 and an increase of 0.04%. [2] - **Differences and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510 and沪银2512 - 沪银2510 are 2.16 and 17 respectively. The spot gold - to - silver ratio is 84.00. The ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.24 and 7.49 respectively. [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold remain unchanged at 30,258 kilograms and 38,034,038 respectively. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver have increased by 21,015.00 kilograms and 1375881 respectively. [2] Related Variables - **Index and Yield Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6694, 6389.77, 4.42, 69.6, and 7.1835 respectively, with increases of 1.02%, 0.02%, 0.45%, 0.01%, and 0.21% respectively compared to the previous values. [2] Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have increased by 1.00 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver have increased by 481, while those in gold have decreased by 1451. [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: On July 28 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions, implement the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks and the London framework, and promote the healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations. [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. He is also disappointed with Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. If no agreement is reached, the US will implement "secondary sanctions". [3] - **US Treasury Borrowing**: The US Treasury has significantly raised its estimate of federal borrowing for this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It now expects the net borrowing from July to September to be $1.01 trillion, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. [3] - **European Central Bank**: European Central Bank hawkish official Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again. Unless there is a major unexpected economic turn, the reason for action in September is not sufficient. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors such as stable domestic downstream demand, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, slowing growth in home appliance production, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and the expected improvement in concentrate supply and possible recovery of smelting supply this year, combined with positive growth in domestic auto production and sales, stable growth in infrastructure, slowing growth in home appliance production, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Current low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry continuing positive growth, auto production and sales showing positive growth, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,000 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 80 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 9,763 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 54.34 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 128,475 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,700 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Recent concentrate processing fees have been continuously rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,615 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 15 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,806 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 1.95 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 115,775 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 20,645 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,631 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 0.58 dollars/ton, LME inventory 450,825 tons, LME inventory daily change 2,725 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 121,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 1,220 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 15,230 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 208.46 dollars/ton, LME inventory 203,922 tons, LME inventory daily change - 534 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 16,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,018 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 27.31 dollars/ton, LME inventory 266,275 tons, LME inventory daily change - 3,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 267,700 yuan/ton, domestic basis 3,730 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 33,670 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 20.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 1,740 tons, LME inventory daily change 50 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways overnight. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for both Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, due to the clearer macro - situation of anti - involution in China, the market rebounded last week. However, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors, with summer maintenance in balance. Attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 respectively, down 104, 98, and 121 from two days ago, with declines of - 1.39%, - 1.31%, and - 1.62%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7136, 7137, and 7130, down 100, 90, and 91, with declines of - 1.38%, - 1.25%, and - 1.26% [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 114997, 1587, and 388896, with open interests of 157846, 7336, and 346401, and open interest changes of 5906, 528, and - 20147. PP's trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, with open interests of 165953, 9581, and 325802, and open interest changes of - 3873, - 366, and - 29838 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and - 65, compared to previous values of 11, 37, and - 48. For PP, the current spreads were - 1, 7, and - 6, compared to previous values of 9, 6, and - 15 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2406 yuan/ton, 6195 yuan/ton, 539 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2519 yuan/ton, 6240 yuan/ton, 547 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7550. For PP, the ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200. Most of the previous values were the same, except for the North China LL market which also had a previous range of 8100 - 8250 [2] News - On Monday (July 28), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.71 per barrel, up $1.55 or 2.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.05 - $67.14. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.04 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.35 - $70.45 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the T2509 contract rising 0.2%, and the short - term market interest rates generally declined. The yields of key - term treasury bonds at home and abroad changed, and the price fluctuations of short - term treasury bond futures will continue to increase due to multiple factors [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Volumes**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, such as the T2509 contract rising 0.2%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with some open interest decreasing [2]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - The short - term market interest rates generally declined. For example, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 2.4bp, the DR007 rate decreased by 6.73bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 2.9bp [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds at home changed differently. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 2.24bp to 1.72%, and the yield spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) treasury bonds was 30.73bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y US treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield decreased by 7bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 3.4bp [2]. Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Meetings**: The national industrial and information authorities' symposium deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting industrial development and expanding domestic demand [3]. - **Other Policies**: The implementation plan of the national child - rearing subsidy system was officially announced, and the CF40 report suggested increasing counter - cyclical policies [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: Most money market interest rates declined, and most US treasury bond yields fell. Trump's remarks affected the market's expectations of the Fed's policies [3]. Comment and Strategy - The price of 10 - year treasury bond active bonds rebounded significantly, and the yield dropped to 1.715%. Due to factors such as the central bank's operations, overseas economic data, and domestic policies, the price fluctuations of short - term treasury bond futures will continue to increase [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is favorable for reducing stock market volatility. It believes that the policy signal is clear, and the valuation has started to repair in advance, but the fundamentals have not been fully verified. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares have a high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, have the potential for higher returns due to their high growth, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from - 0.40% to - 0.50%. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 53,170.00, and the open interest of IF current - month contracts decreased by 4,718.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also declined, with drops from - 0.55% to - 0.61%. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 30,341.00, and the open interest of IH current - month contracts decreased by 599.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts mostly decreased, with falls from - 0.02% to - 0.06%. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 39,078.00, and the open interest of IC current - month contracts decreased by 2,979.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with rises from 0.01% to 0.03%. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 98,231.00, and the open interest of IM current - month contracts decreased by 3,636.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF next - month minus IF current - month was - 6.80, IH next - month minus IH current - month was 1.20, IC next - month minus IC current - month was - 45.20, and IM next - month minus IM current - month was - 62.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices Performance**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.53%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.08%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed varying degrees of rise and fall, with the information technology industry rising by 1.43% and the optional consumption industry falling by 1.48% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts Basis**: The basis of IF current - month minus CSI 300 was - 4.36, and the basis of IF next - month minus CSI 300 was - 11.16 [1] - **IH Contracts Basis**: The basis of IH current - month minus SSE 50 was 0.09, and the basis of IH next - month minus SSE 50 was 1.29 [1] - **IC Contracts Basis**: The basis of IC current - month minus CSI 500 was - 38.39, and the basis of IC next - month minus CSI 500 was - 83.59 [1] - **IM Contracts Basis**: The basis of IM current - month minus CSI 1000 was - 38.41, and the basis of IM next - month minus CSI 1000 was - 100.81 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the DAX index increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared to May. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year - on - year, while the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% [2] - **US - EU Trade Agreement**: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs [2] - **US Business Delegation to China**: A high - level US business delegation is about to visit China, organized by the US - China Business Council [2] - **Provincial Economic Data**: The economic performance of the six central provinces is remarkable, with the GDP growth rates of most provinces exceeding the national average of 5.3% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Artificial Intelligence**: The SASAC attaches great importance to the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence industry. The Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory released ten scientific and intelligent innovation achievements, and Pudong will create over 30 application scenarios and attract 1,000 AI enterprises in the next three years, with the core output value of AI exceeding 200 billion yuan [2] - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry should limit production, stabilize prices, and ensure profits, and learn from the successful experiences of cement integration and the high - profit cycle of electrolytic aluminum [2] - **Power Bank Industry**: The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association held a symposium on the compliance and healthy development of the power bank industry in Shenzhen, reaching important consensus on improving product quality [2]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,830 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 105 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 9,855 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 49.92 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 124,825 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,841 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 0.71 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 115,325 tons with a daily change of - 1,275 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,815 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 444,800 tons with a daily change of 6,350 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 123,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,360 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 202.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 205,872 tons with a daily change of - 2,220 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,810 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,023 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 24.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 263,150 tons with a daily change of 650 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 268,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 270 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,660 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 145.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,690 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has a relatively high investment cost - performance in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may offer higher returns due to more science and technology innovation policies, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [11]. - The bond market may continue to weaken in the short term, especially the long - term treasury bond futures prices will fluctuate more significantly [12]. - The prices of some commodities are driven by the "anti - involution" policy, and the expected increase in industrial product prices is rising [12]. - The steel market has a weak supply - demand situation with little change in inventory, and steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][24]. - The prices of coking coal are likely to continue rising in the short term but may peak after late August [2][25]. - The prices of crude oil are affected by geopolitical factors and trade agreements, and the subsequent OPEC production increase situation needs attention [3][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The European Central Bank kept its three major interest rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive cuts since June last year. It cited "trade disputes" as the main source of policy uncertainty [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying unfair price behaviors and regulate market price order [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of the year, China's gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%, while gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 84.771 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.73% [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.07%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.12%, and the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.11%. The US dollar index rose 0.29%. Among commodities, SC crude oil rose 0.56%, ICE Brent crude rose 1.00%, London gold fell 0.55%, and London silver fell 0.48% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to see an increase in the proportion of medium - and long - term funds, which is conducive to reducing market volatility. The policy signal is clear, and the valuation is starting to recover [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. Due to factors such as the central bank's net capital withdrawal, unchanged LPR, and improved consumer confidence in the US, the bond market may continue to weaken in the short term [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. The US - EU trade agreement is approaching, and geopolitical tensions remain a focus. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased. Coastal inventories increased. Methanol is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound. The market is focused on the supply - demand situation, and the improvement of the supply - demand situation needs time [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded significantly. The supply of both decreased during the summer maintenance period, and inventories declined. It is recommended to wait and see due to high short - term market enthusiasm [16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose on Thursday. Supply - side factors support prices, but demand is weak. Prices may be volatile in the short term [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices have been falling. The trade situation has improved, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. However, long - term factors still support gold prices, and silver is relatively strong due to industrial product support [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The processing fee of concentrates is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The processing fee of concentrates has increased. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to the issue of mining qualifications in Jiangxi. Although there is still room for sentiment fermentation, the fundamentals are under pressure. The price may be strong in the short term but lacks a medium - term reversal basis [21][22]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the relatively good profit of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of the steel market is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces rebounded, and coking coal and coke inventories changed. The prices are likely to rise further in the short term but may peak after late August [2][25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak due to the promotion of soybean meal substitution and sufficient supply [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are expected to be supported by the improvement of the Indonesian market and the expected increase in exports to the EU. The medium - to - long - term price center of oils and fats is expected to rise slowly [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded. The freight rate of the European line is approaching its peak, and the peak season inflection point may be approaching, but the extent and slope of the subsequent freight rate adjustment are uncertain [28].

| | 1、央行公告称，7月24日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3310亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3310 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3310亿元。Wind数据显示，当日4505亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼1195亿元。 | | | 2、为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年7月25日，人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿 | | | 元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。专家表示，本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着7月MLF将净投放1000亿 | | | 元，为连续第五个月加量续做。 | | | 3、国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔 、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张 。 | | | 一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴关系定位。二是坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则 | | | 秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴欧投资提供公平 、公正、非歧视的营商环境。 | | | 4、人民银行上海总部召开2025年第三季度新闻发布会。人民银行上海总部货币信贷调研部副 ...

宏观信息 行业信息 综合点评及操作建议 五、宏观信息 外交部发言人宣布，国务院总理李强将于7月26日出席在上海举行的2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议开幕式并致辞。 商务部表示，打击战略矿产走私出口面临的形势依然复杂严峻，下阶段将采取建立两用物项出口管制联合执法协调中心，将违法境外实体列入出口管制管控名 单，制定发布战略矿产合规出口工作指引等举措。 国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张。一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴关系定位。二是 坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴欧投资提供公平、公正、非 歧视的营商环境。 央行、农业农村部印发《关于加强金融服务农村改革 推进乡村全面振兴的意见》，提出要加大乡村振兴重点领域的金融资源投入，包括加大对粮食主产区、 产粮大县信贷资源倾斜，支持拓宽农民增收渠道等。 国家发改委表示， 2025年7350亿元中央预算内投资已基本下达完毕，重点支持现代化产业体系、现代化基础设施体系、新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴等领域项 目建设。 六、行业信 ...