Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue to decline, but also pay attention to the room for the US to sanction Venezuela and Iran due to low oil prices [3] - For methanol, the short - term trend is mainly bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 458.1, 457.6, 58.23, 57.79, 65.72, and 65.14 respectively. The price changes were - 20.5, - 21.1, - 2.73, - 2.89, 4.10, and 3.94, with percentage changes of - 4.28%, - 4.41%, - 4.48%, - 4.76%, 6.65%, and 6.44% [2] - The trading volumes were 217,278, 91,670, 531,215, 470,571, 667,298, and 415,905 respectively. The open interests were 19,038, 20,105, 258,227, 269,274, 497,797, and 413,637 respectively, with changes of - 559, 4,964, - 25,261, 18,598, - 37,761, and 5,623 [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 0.5, 457.6, 33.5, - 21.1, 3.23, and 0.58 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2,388, 2,426, and 2,317 respectively. The price changes were 81.0, 74.0, and 88.0, with percentage changes of 3.51%, 3.15%, and 3.95% [2] - The trading volumes were 12,527, 835,075, and 533,458 respectively. The open interests were 28,077, 447,218, and 469,938 respectively, with changes of 4,985, - 48,648, and 2,445 [2] Spot Market Methanol - The current prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 267.5, 2,570, 2,275, and 2,525 respectively, with changes of 5, 45, - 10, and 40 [2] Crude Oil - The international market prices of OPEC basket, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 63.40, 62.80, 62.35, 62.22, 62.03, and 59.04 respectively [2] - The domestic market prices of Daqing, Shengli, China gasoline wholesale price index, China diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of aviation kerosene were 58.34, 57.97, 8,208, 6,997, 55.42, and 5,662 respectively [2] Comment and Strategy Crude Oil - The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth, the US stock market fell sharply, and the CBOE market volatility index remained high. The US Energy Information Administration predicted that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 would be about $67.87 per barrel, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $74.22 [3] Methanol - The methanol night - session rose 0.17%. The arrival of downstream factories increased, and the overall methanol inventory in coastal areas increased slightly. As of April 10, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 73.36 tons, up 1.16 tons from April 3, a 1.61% increase and a 10.32% year - on - year increase. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was about 31.3 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported ships from April 11 to April 27 was between 52.35 - 53 tons. As of April 10, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 74%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The average operating rate of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.21%, a 0.86% increase from the previous period [3]

| 集运欧线数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/4/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新观点 | | | | | | 策略方向 | | | 集运欧线：受特朗普关税政策"大反转"影响，表示对未采取反制措施的多个国 | | | | | | | | | 家实施90天的关税暂停，市场风险偏好回升，周四EC多个合约接近涨停开盘，全 | | | | | | | | | 天偏震荡，尾盘再度反弹，06合约收于1886点，上涨14.47%。近期EC整体还是受 | | | | | | | | | 特朗普政策带来的宏观情绪影响较多，尤其是关税壁垒可能带来的全球贸易需求 | | | | | | | | | 的衰退，现货运价影响较为有限。欧线传统来说即将迎来二季度的季节性旺季， | | | | | | 震荡 | | | 但在高额关税的不确定性影响下，美线货物出口回落可能外溢至欧线，再加上目 | | | | | | | | | 前尚未看到欧线节日备货季的开启，传统旺季能否到来其实是存在不确定性，预 | | | | | | | | | 计旺季预期 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Treasury Bonds on April 11, 2025, provided by the Shenwan Futures Research Institute [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance, with the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield falling to 1.6475%. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan, and short - term Shibor rates mostly declined, with funding rates dropping below 1.7%. The probability of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, causing short - term US Treasury yields to fall. Policy expectations for China's market are strengthening, and it is expected to continue supporting short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, long - term Treasury bond futures prices may experience greater fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.13%, and the corresponding CTD bond IRR of each Treasury bond futures main contract was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined, and key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad also changed. The 10Y Treasury bond yield in China decreased by 0.23bp to 1.65%, while the 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 6bp, 3bp, and 1.6bp respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. For example, the open interest of T2506 increased by 3578 [2] - **Spread Changes**: The inter - period spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - period spread of TS2506 decreased from - 0.096 to - 0.106 [2] 3.2 Macro and Market News - **Domestic Macro**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan on April 10. China's March CPI and PPI were affected by seasonal and international input factors, but core CPI increased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing positive price changes. There are expectations for the introduction of more macro - policies, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3] - **International Macro**: The US imposed a 90 - day tariff suspension on some countries or regions. The US March CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, reaching a six - month low, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. US Treasury bonds were sold off, and concerns about the sustainability of US debt increased [3] 3.3 Market Interest Rates - **Domestic Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day rates, DR001 and DR007, GC001 and GC007, FR001 and FR007 all declined to varying degrees on the previous trading day [2] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields showed mixed performance. The 2 - year yield fell, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year yields rose [3]

20250411 申万期货品种策略日报-PTA MEG PF | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 袁玮（执业编号： F03110455,Z0018521） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | yuanwei@sywgqh.com.cn 15995121297 | | | | | | | 期货收盘价 (5月交割): | 期货收盘价 (9月交割): | 期货收盘价 (1月交割): | 期货收盘价 (5月交割): | 期货收盘价 (9月交割): | 期货收盘价(1 月交割):乙二 | | | | 精对苯二甲 | 精对苯二甲 | 精对苯二甲 | 乙二醇EG | 乙二醇EG | 醇EG | | | 前日收盘 | 酸PTA 4110 | 酸PTA 4164 | 酸PTA 4224 | 4059 | 4116 | 4151 | | | 价 前2日收 | 4296 | 4334 | 4374 | 4163 | 4212 | 4265 | | | 盘价 涨跌 | -186 | -170 | -150 | -104 | -96 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the impact of Trump's tariff suspension announcement on various sectors including energy, precious metals, and stock indices. It suggests short - term trends and future concerns for each sector, with a focus on how the tariff policy, market sentiment, and economic fundamentals interact to influence prices and investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory I.当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US government will suspend the collection of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, with a minimum tariff rate of 10% [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries through strategic trust, development integration, stability maintenance, and increased exchanges [7]. - **Industry News**: In March, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.94 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 991,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45% [8]. II.外盘每日收益情况 - Various international market indices and commodities showed different trends. For example, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the European STOXX 50 fell 3.80%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.65% [8]. III.主要品种早盘评论 1) Financial - **Stock Indices**: Trump's 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries led to a surge in US stocks and A50 futures. Chinese stock indices rebounded strongly, with policies from multiple departments boosting market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.65%. It is recommended to go long while controlling risks, considering factors like the US tariff suspension and China's economic policies [12]. 2) Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a late - session rebound in international oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is bullish, considering factors such as production load and inventory [14]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber continued to decline. The long - term trend is expected to be weak, affected by factors like tariffs and supply - demand [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak and volatile trend. The short - term market will be affected by shocks, and attention should be paid to cost and demand [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend. The future trend depends on domestic demand [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to remain weak due to insufficient cost support and demand [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to factors like inventory and demand [19]. 3) Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded. Gold is expected to remain strong, with future trends depending on multiple factors [3][20]. - **Copper**: The price of copper may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as tariffs and demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on tariffs and other factors [22]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be weak and volatile in the short term, considering supply and demand [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term, affected by multiple factors [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In March, there was an oversupply of lithium carbonate. The price may decline further if production expectations are not revised [25][26]. 4) Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on iron ore is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 progress [27]. - **Steel**: The impact of tariffs on steel is not direct. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 and demand [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The valuation of coking coal and coke may be repaired upwards, with attention on upstream inventory digestion [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The support for ferroalloys may strengthen, with attention on steel procurement and inventory [30]. 5) Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as inventory and oil prices [32]. - **Protein Meals**: The price of far - month soybean meal has support, considering factors such as trade disputes and planting area [33]. 6) Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The short - term trend of the container shipping index to Europe is expected to be weak, with attention on shipping company capacity control and price increases [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1704.7 points, down 6.57%. Most shipping companies' freight rates in the first half of April continued the quotes at the end of March, with a slight increase in the second half. The freight rates in April tend to stabilize, and the average price of a 40 - foot container in the 16th week was around $2300. Some shipping companies have announced their online quotes for May, with the quotes for 40 - foot containers ranging from $2337 to $4545. The weekly average capacity put into service by shipping companies in May exceeds 300,000 TEU, and the rate - increase efforts of each shipping company vary. The market had expectations for the upcoming traditional peak season in the second quarter, but under the uncertainty of high tariffs, shipping companies may start a price - cut game to preserve more profits rather than betting on the peak - season demand, and the expected peak - season node may be postponed or the expected difference may drop to zero. Trump's latest tariff policy "U - turn" announced a 90 - day delay in equivalent tariffs for most countries, which may lead to short - term emotional repair. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' subsequent capacity regulation and the progress of rate increases in May [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long - Position Holdings (Top 20 Members) | Short - Position Holdings (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1491 | - 1.37 | 556 | 1509 | 1123 | 1264 | - 141 | | EC2506 | 1704.7 | - 6.57 | 86722 | 34705 | 20734 | 19291 | 1443 | | EC2508 | 1703.2 | - 8.18 | 34648 | 28839 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2510 | 1275.8 | - 3.44 | 18080 | 16196 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1455.2 | - 4.13 | 3509 | 3554 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1295.8 | - 4.05 | 2938 | 2752 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 146453 | 87555 | 21857 | 20555 | 1302 | [1] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Index | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Index (Weekly) - SCFIS (Points) | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | 1473.56 | - 2.2% | 1506.17 | - 6.5% | | SCFI ($/TEU) | 1336 | 1.4% | 1318 | 0.9% | 1306 | - 2.7% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) - TCI (20GP) ($/TEU) | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 3.7% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) - TCI (40GP) ($/FEU) | 2737 | 0.0% | 2737 | 0.0% | 2737 | 8.7% | | Basis Spread (Points) | - | - | - | - | - | 62.3 | [1] 3.3 Spot Market Data - **Capacity and Utilization**: The capacity put into service on the Asia - Europe route is 489,797 TEU, a decrease of 1153 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.4%. For different types of container ships (17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, 8000 - 11999TEU), the idle capacity ratios are 3.2%, 0.6%, and 2.7% respectively [4] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 13.95 knots. The speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.7 and 15.3 knots respectively [4] - **Capacity at Port**: The capacity at Rotterdam Port is 229,100 TEU, at Hamburg Port is 98,200 TEU, and at Singapore Port is 335,300 TEU [4] - **Route - Bypass Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 8, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 1 [4] - **Charter Rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $106,000, $73,500, and $33,750 per day respectively [4]

申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250410 | | 原油 | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 458.1 | 457.6 | 58.23 | 57.79 | 65.72 | 65.14 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 478.6 | 478.7 | 60.96 | 60.68 | 61.62 | 61.20 | | | 涨跌 | -20.5 | -21.1 | -2.73 | -2.89 | 4.10 | 3.94 | | | 涨跌幅 | -4.28% | -4.41% | -4.48% | -4.76% | 6.65% | 6.44% | | | 成交量 | 217,278 | 91,670 | 531,215 | 470,571 | 667,298 | 415,905 | | | 持仓量 | 19,038 | 20,105 | 258,227 | 269,274 | 497,797 | 413,637 | | | 持仓 ...

| 2025/4/10 星期四 | 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | | IF当月 IF下月 | | | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 3598.60 | | 3574.60 | 3543.80 | 3495.80 | | 前日收盘价 3655.00 | | 3640.20 | 3614.00 | 3565.40 | | 涨跌 63.60 沪深300 | | 73.20 | 75.40 | 76.80 | | 涨跌幅 1.77 | | 2.05 | 2.13 | 2.20 | | 成交量 68912.00 | | 10922.00 | 115307 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down in a volatile manner. The escalation of Sino-US trade tariff disputes weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, leading to a decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns over tariffs boosted the price of Brazilian soybeans, pushing up the cost of domestic soybean imports. There are also concerns that the export volume of new-season US soybeans in 2025/26 may decline, and the domestic import volume after September may decrease. Coupled with the impact of poor planting profits, the planting area of US soybeans in 2025/26 may decline, providing support for the price of distant-month soybean meal [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. It is expected that the inventory in Southeast Asian producing areas will reach an inflection point. According to SGS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 31, 2025, is expected to increase by 6.3%. According to SPPOMA data, the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 31, 2025, increased by 12.44% month-on-month. With the recovery of production in the producing areas, the inventory is expected to rise. Reuters predicts that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in March 2025 will be 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February; the production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from February; the export volume is expected to be 1.02 million tons, a 2% increase from February. The fundamental outlook is bearish, but the sharp rise in overnight oil prices will provide some support for the oil sector [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7,576, 8,588, 9,205, 3,119, 2,631, and 8,844 respectively. The price changes were -52, -170, -143, -45, -84, and 26, with percentage changes of -0.68%, -1.94%, -3.15%, -1.42%, -3.09%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is currently 68, down from the previous 80; the M9 - 1 spread is currently 26, down from the previous 37 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,701 ringgit/ton, 1,013 cents/bushel, 46 cents/pound, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were -27, 20, 1, and 4, with percentage changes of -0.59%, 2.02%, 2.62%, and 1.38% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, with different percentage changes. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 7,900, with a percentage change of -0.63% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 324 [1] Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -1,130, down from the previous -999 [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 735, 500, 1,811, 9,350, 0, and 1,500 respectively, with no change in soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peanuts compared to the previous values, while the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased from 8,900 [1] Industry Information - Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export costs to offset the impact of the 32% "reciprocal" tariff imposed by the US on Indonesian exports. The small - scale palm oil farmers' organization SPKS proposed to reduce export tariffs and special export taxes to 0% to help stabilize the price of palm fruits [2] - The EU will impose a 25% tariff on corn starting from April 15 in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs. US soybeans will be subject to tariffs starting from December 1 [2] - According to the expected value of a foreign media survey, as of the week ending April 3, the expected net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and the expected net sales for the 2025/26 market year are 0 - 50,000 tons [2]

| | 1、央行公告称，4月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1189亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量1189 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1189亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2299亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼1110亿元。 | | | 2、中央周边工作会议4月8日至9日在北京举行。国家主席习近平在重要讲话中系统总结新时代以来我国周边工作的成 | | | 就和经验，科学分析形势，明确了今后一个时期周边工作的目标任务和思路举措，强调要聚焦构建周边命运共同体， | | | 努力开创周边工作新局面。会议强调，构建周边命运共同体，要与周边国家巩固战略互信，支持地区国家走稳自身发 | | | 展道路，妥善管控矛盾分歧；深化发展融合，构建高水平互联互通网络，加强产业链供应链合作；共同维护地区稳 定，开展安全和执法合作，应对各类风险挑战；扩大交往交流，便利人员往来。 | | | 3、国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会。李强强调，要实施好更加积极有为的宏观政策，靠前发力 | | | 推动既定政策尽快落地见效，根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策。要把扩大内需作为长期 ...