Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures showed narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, inventory is slowly being digested, and the market is in a stage of stopping decline after a previous rebound. However, short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Fortunately, the domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The market should focus on the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion and potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7351, 7346, and 7306 respectively, with changes of 8, - 1, and 19 and percentage changes of 0.11%, - 0.01%, and 0.26%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7084, 7080, and 7058 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 7, and - 8 and percentage changes of - 0.01%, - 0.10%, and - 0.11% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 185379, 2572, and 67045 respectively, and the open interests were 318815, 16838, and 173330 respectively, with changes of 14919, 834, and - 22825. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 175405, 7038, and 52887 respectively, and the open interests were 363357, 25996, and 110716 respectively, with changes of 12810, 2433, and - 15155 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 40, and - 45 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 60, and - 56. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 4, 22, and - 26 respectively, compared to previous values of - 2, 21, and - 19 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2415 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6830 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2437 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6860 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as international political events, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4]. - For financial products, the stock index may continue to rise in the short - term, but the policy support effect may weaken later. The bond market may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of different products are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and international policies [14][15][16]. - In the metal market, precious metals may fluctuate due to inflation data and interest - rate expectations, while base metals are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural product market, different products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and international trade policies [28][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night - trading declined slightly. The US unemployment rate may rise in August, inflation has intensified, and the possibility of the Fed's September interest - rate cut has decreased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Inflation data has put pressure on gold and silver. However, the weakening employment market and long - term driving factors support the prices. They may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts [3][20]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [4][25]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US - Russia leaders' meeting made progress, and the US may promote a broader peace agreement. The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and plans to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading center [7]. - **Industry News**: Thirteen wealth - management companies have disclosed their semi - annual reports. Most of them are concentrating on public - offering and fixed - income products [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - Different overseas market indices and commodities have different price changes, including increases and decreases in stock indices, commodities, and currencies [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has risen, but the policy support may weaken later. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [11][12]. - **Treasury Bond**: The long - end bond price has fallen. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has decreased, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key variety analysis, pay attention to OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: The short - term trend is mainly bullish, with inventory accumulation and a relatively high operating rate [15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is weak. It may fluctuate and decline [16][17]. - **Polyolefin**: The market is in a stable stage after a rebound, and the terminal demand may pick up in the second half of August [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the price decline has stopped. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [19]. 3.4.3 Metal - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key variety analysis, they may show a volatile trend [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The price may have a callback risk and then rise if the inventory is digested [23]. 3.4.4 Black - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported, but the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Similar to the key variety analysis, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is restricted by various factors, and attention should be paid to future supply and iron - water production [26]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean production is expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish. The impact of the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping event has weakened [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is lower than expected, but the market is under short - term pressure [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory but may be dragged down by processing sugar [30]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen, and the domestic cotton price may be volatile and slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate has declined, and the 10 - contract price is at a deep discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of other shipping companies [32].

20250801申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 770.92 | 773.12 | 8935.00 | 8957.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 770.28 | 772.24 | 9008.00 | 9033.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 0.64 | 0.88 | -73.00 | -76.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.81% | -0.84% | | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 217080 | 119395 | 371110 | 210165 | | | | 成交量 | 260701 | 36959 | 1100640 | 141471 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The A-share market has a high investment cost-performance ratio in the long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies, and their high growth potential may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro environment. The proportion of medium and long-term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility. Currently, policy signals are clear, and valuations are starting to recover, but the fundamentals have not been verified [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Market 1. Futures Contracts - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 20.00, 20.80, 16.40, and 18.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 23,577.00, 53,170.00, 12,168.00, and 3,531.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,718.00, 7,721.00, increased by 562.00, and increased by 685.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 16.40, 17.00, 17.20, and 15.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 12,022.00, 30,341.00, 4,009.00, and 855.00, and the open interest decreased by 599.00, 2,625.00, 72.00, and 155.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts decreased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 1.40, 1.80, 2.00, and 3.80 respectively. The trading volumes were 21,529.00, 39,078.00, 11,549.00, and 4,777.00, and the open interest decreased by 2,979.00, 2,797.00, 128.00, and increased by 1,671.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter rising by 2.00, 2.20, 0.80, and 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 32,877.00, 98,231.00, 21,466.00, and 6,839.00, and the open interest decreased by 3,636.00, 8,546.00, 339.00, and increased by 1,231.00 respectively [1] 2. Inter - month Spreads - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month being - 6.80, 1.20, - 45.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 5.80, 1.20, - 43.60, and - 57.20 [1] II. Spot Market 1. Major Indexes - **CSI 300 Index**: The index decreased by 0.53%, with a previous value of 4,127.16, a trading volume of 27.359 billion lots, and a total trading value of 430.446 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The index decreased by 0.60%, with a previous value of 2,795.51, a trading volume of 5.169 billion lots, and a total trading value of 114.043 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The index increased by 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,299.59, a trading volume of 23.706 billion lots, and a total trading value of 304.368 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index increased by 0.08%, with a previous value of 6,706.61, a trading volume of 26.4 billion lots, and a total trading value of 363.14 billion yuan [1] 2. Industry Indexes - Different industries showed different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors decreased by 1.10%, 0.59%, 1.21%, and 1.48% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors decreased by 1.65%, 0.30%, 0.32%, and increased by 1.43% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors decreased by 0.53% and 0.70% respectively [1] III. Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two days. For example, the basis of IF current month - CSI 300 was - 4.36, compared to - 2.04 two days ago [1] IV. Other Indexes 1. Domestic Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] 2. International Indexes - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.40%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.32% [1] V. Macro Information - A batch of new regulations came into effect on August 1st, including the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance", the "Measures for the Administration of Anti - Money Laundering and Counter - Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Institutions", etc. The US will resume imposing so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. The State Council Executive Meeting approved the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative" and deployed loan interest subsidy policies. The July China Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized work in nine aspects for the second half of the year [2] VI. Industry Information - The National Healthcare Security Administration formulated a new pricing mechanism for newly launched drugs and added more than 100 price items related to medical new technologies. The National Energy Administration is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities construction. In the first half of the year, the country's renewable energy new installed capacity was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%. The financial regulatory authority required urban commercial medical insurance to highlight its inclusive nature [2]

Report Information - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Treasury Bonds - Analyst: Tang Guanghua from Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute (Qualification No.: F3010997; Trading Consultation No.: Z0011162) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, and short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Given the "anti - involution" policy expectations, the prices of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize in the short term when the equity and commodity markets are weak [2][3]. Summary by Section Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of all treasury bond futures contracts rose, with T2509 rising 0.17%. The T2509 contract's trading volume was 69,263, and its open interest decreased by 2,277. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The inter - term spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were - 0.068, - 0.080, 0.030, and 0.330 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous values [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 rates decreased by 0.4bp, 3.07bp, and 15.1bp respectively [2]. - **Chinese Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term Chinese treasury bonds generally declined. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 2.59bp to 1.7%, and the 10 - 2 year yield spread was 27.8bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10 - year US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10 - year German treasury bond yield increased by 1bp, and the 10 - year Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 0.6bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - **Monetary Policy**: On July 31, the central bank conducted 283.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Policy Meetings**: The State Council Executive Meeting passed the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative", and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts in the second half of the year to achieve economic goals [3]. - **Economic Data**: China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease [3]. - **Overseas News**: The US will resume collecting so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1. The core PCE price index in the US in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected [3]. Industry Information and Strategy - **Interest Rate Trends**: On July 31, most money market interest rates in China rose, and US treasury bond yields showed mixed trends [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize in the short term due to the "anti - involution" policy expectations and the weak performance of the equity and commodity markets [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL and drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventories are being slowly digested. Future focus should be on the autumn restocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 43, 34, and 37 respectively, with declines of - 0.58%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50%. For PP, the corresponding decreases were 23, 11, and 27, with declines of - 0.32%, - 0.15%, and - 0.38% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 85106, 897, and 211583 respectively; for PP, they were 72769, 690, and 188972 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 170116, 7879, and 326961 respectively; for PP, they were 190211, 10289, and 288497. The changes in open interest were 4000, 231, - 7196 for LL and - 935, 100, - 11205 for PP [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 9, 40, and - 49 respectively; for PP, they were 4, 22, and - 26. The previous spreads were 18, 37, - 55 for LL and 16, 6, - 22 for PP [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane were 2406 yuan/ton, 6245 yuan/ton, and 538 dollars/ton respectively, with previous prices of 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, and 544 dollars/ton. The prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remained unchanged at 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (July 31), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.26 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.56 - $70.41. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.53 per barrel, down $0.71 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $72.4 - $73.53 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weakly volatile. The U.S. soybean is growing well, with a higher-than-expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in U.S. soybean futures prices. However, due to the lack of a substantial agreement between China and the U.S., the logic of a domestic supply gap remains unchanged, and import costs will support the price of Dalian soybean meal [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils closed slightly lower. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month-on-month in July, while exports were weak, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in July and dragging down the recent performance of palm oil. Due to the high level of imported soybeans in China, the supply of domestic soybean oil is sufficient, and the price is low. China's export of soybean oil to India poses a substitution risk, which may put pressure on the demand for palm oil in the origin and cause concerns about future exports. It is expected that oils will be weakly volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8192, 8900, and 9510 respectively, with changes of -48, -82, and -111, and percentage changes of -0.58%, -0.91%, and -3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3000, 2702, and 8844 respectively, with changes of -10, -28, and 26, and percentage changes of -0.33%, -1.03%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil is currently 52, compared to the previous value of 38 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 990 (cents/bushel), 55 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, -6, -1, and 2, and percentage changes of 0.33%, -0.58%, -2.42%, and 0.73% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have changed compared to the previous situation. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8370 and 8400 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.48% and -0.47% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads also show differences from the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 178 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing - **Profitability**: The current import profitability of various varieties has changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -444, compared to the previous value of -355 [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities and Changes**: The current quantities of warehouse receipts for various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 0, compared to the previous value of 13,709 [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [2]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS data, Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,163,216 tons, a 9.58% decrease from the same period last month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. The spot copper price closed lower at night. The overall processing fee for concentrate is currently at a low level, testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with positive growth in the power and auto industries, a slowdown in home appliance output growth, and continued weakness in the real estate sector. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. The spot zinc price closed higher at night. The processing fee for concentrate has been rising recently. The supply of concentrate has improved significantly this year, and smelting supply may recover. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - **Copper**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 78,100 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 115 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,607 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 50.76 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 136,850 tons, and the daily change was 9,225 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,563 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 2.64 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 460,350 tons, and the daily change was 4,250 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,635 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 5 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,762 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 6.56 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 109,050 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,520 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,470 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 14,950 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 200.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 208,092 tons, and the daily change was 3,180 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 145 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,970 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.86 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 276,375 tons, and the daily change was 6,025 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 267,570 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 250 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 32,685 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 16.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,945 tons, and the daily change was 90 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's official manufacturing PMI in July 2025 fell to 49.3, and the new orders index dropped to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. The market demand for manufacturing has slowed down [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares have high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][9][10]. - Domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market focus has returned to supply and demand, and the speed of upstream inventory digestion should be concerned in the future [3][15]. - Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the performance of the US non - farm payrolls [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1,000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation of 224,000. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week remained unchanged at 1.946 million [5]. Domestic News - In June 2025, China's exports of goods and services in the balance of payments were $329.2 billion, imports were $259.1 billion, and the surplus was $70.1 billion [6]. Industry News - In the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy in China was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%, accounting for about 91.5% of the newly installed capacity. The installed capacity of new energy storage reached 94.91 million kilowatts/222 million kilowatt - hours, an increase of about 29% compared with the end of 2024 [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the European STOXX 50 dropped 1.11%, the FTSE China A50 futures declined 1.69%, the US dollar index rose 0.08%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.25%, London gold spot rose 0.45%, London silver dropped 1.16%, LME metals declined to varying degrees, and most agricultural products in CBOT showed small fluctuations [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell, and the stock index had a significant correction in the previous trading day. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025. In the long - term, A - shares have high investment value [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to rise, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.70%. In the short - term, when the equity and commodity markets are weak, the price of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night session fell 0.71%. Trump's tariff policies have added uncertainty to global oil demand. The US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session fell 0.08%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased slightly, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [13]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market after supply and demand digestion [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to correct. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the speed of upstream inventory digestion [3][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of raw rubber is supported by supply - side factors, but the demand - side support is weak. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [16]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold rebounded after a decline, and silver continued to correct. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the market is speculating on the possibility of a rate cut in September. Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate [4][17]. - **Copper**: The copper price at night session closed lower. The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs and other factors [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night session closed higher. The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs and other factors [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate rose significantly due to the mining qualification issue in Jiangxi. The inventory continued to increase, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term core contradiction lies in the warehouse receipt inventory [20][21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The decline of rebar is greater than that of hot - rolled coil. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for the time being, and the steel price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the future [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Politburo meeting, the short - term market sentiment has declined. After the correction, it is expected to maintain a range - bound and slightly bullish trend [24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were weakly volatile at night. The good growth of US soybeans has put pressure on the price, but the import cost will support the domestic soybean meal price [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures closed slightly lower at night. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July has dragged down the palm oil price, and the oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [26][27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC was weakly volatile, and the 10 - contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66%. The market will continue to game the off - season freight rate, and attention should be paid to the degree and slope of the freight rate correction [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures fluctuated within the day. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, due to the increasingly clear macro - situation of domestic anti - involution, polyolefins may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations with market divergence emerging. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in progress, and attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair. Recently, supply and demand tend to gradually digest the inventory accumulated in the second quarter [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7442, 7424, and 7387 respectively. The price changes were 4, - 1, and 2, with percentage changes of 0.05%, - 0.01%, and 0.03%. The trading volumes were 90243, 1023, and 244663, and the open interests were 166116, 7648, and 334157, with changes of 3501, 191, and - 9463 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 18, 37, and - 55, compared to the previous values of 13, 40, and - 53 [2] PP Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7167, 7151, and 7145 respectively. The price changes were 1, - 7, and - 15, with percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.10%, and - 0.21%. The trading volumes were 90691, 884, and 208517, and the open interests were 191146, 10189, and 299702, with changes of 11092, 353, and - 9052 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 16, 6, and - 22, compared to the previous values of 8, - 2, and - 6 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, 543 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous values of 2436 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, 544 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6880 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous prices of 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous prices of 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton [2] Information - On Wednesday (July 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $70.00 per barrel, up $0.79 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.45 - $70.51. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $73.24 per barrel, up $0.73 or 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $71.75 - $73.63 [2]