Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the steel industry remained in a weak pattern with limited profit margins, supply contraction, weak demand, and eased inventory pressure. Although there was no strong policy stimulus, the combination of policies provided a clear framework for the economy in 2026, and the steel industry's fundamentals were expected to gradually improve at a low level [11][12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: The steel mills' profit levels were still low, and the overall profit margins were continuously limited. The industry maintained a weak valuation state [11]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased year-on-year. The daily average pig iron production further declined, and the supply continued to shrink, with the decline in building materials production being more obvious [11]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased year-on-year. The demand for rebar was dragged down by the sluggish real estate investment, while the demand for hot-rolled coils was relatively stable. Export demand was neutral to strong, supporting the demand for plates. Policy changes in consumer subsidies were expected to have a marginal impact on the demand for home appliances and related plates [11]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased year-on-year. The inventory of building materials was smoothly destocked, while the decline in plate inventory was limited [11]. - **Summary**: Macro - policies provided support for manufacturing and infrastructure, but the demand related to real estate was difficult to significantly improve. The steel demand had a basis for marginal stabilization, and the industry's fundamentals were expected to gradually improve [11][12][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts showed the price trends, basis, price spreads of different steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc.) in different regions and contracts, as well as the price differences between different regions and countries [25][27][30]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The charts presented the disk profits, gross profits per ton of different steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc.), and the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces [80][83][85]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data and trends of rebar (total inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, etc.) and hot - rolled coils (total inventory, social inventory, factory inventory, etc.) were shown through charts [92][95][106]. 4. Cost End - The cost - related charts included the ratio of steel to ore, the ratio of steel to coke, daily average pig iron production, billet prices, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption [112][115][124]. 5. Supply End - The production, production capacity utilization, and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils were presented through charts [133][135][138]. 6. Demand and Import - Export - **Domestic Demand**: The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils were shown, as well as the production and export data of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [145][148][150]. - **Import - Export**: The monthly import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates were presented [160][162][165].

04 成本端 海外库存偏低，价格抬升 铝月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2025年12月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4459.8万吨，12月电解铝产量环比增加3.9%，同比增长1.9%。12月 海外电解铝产量258.1万吨，环比增加3.6%，同比增长2.2%。2025年12月国内铝水比例环比下降0.8%，预计2026年1月继续下调。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，2025年12月末铝锭现货库存录得63.8万吨，环比增加4.8万吨。铝棒库存合计14.7万吨，环比增加0.4万吨。据 SMM统计，12月末保税区库存录得5.5万吨，环比下降0.5万吨。LME铝库存录得50.9万吨，环比减少2.9万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走弱， LME市场Cash/3M贴水缩窄。 ◆ 进出口：20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan in 2026 setting a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices led stainless steel prices to continue rising. The limited arrival of goods at steel mills and the increasing replenishment demand of traders led to a further decline in inventory. Supported by the expected Indonesian policy, the price of ferronickel remained firm, and the spot transaction price rebounded to 920 - 930 yuan per nickel. However, the spot market showed a differentiated pattern of "active trading but weak end - users". Affected by factors such as seasonal lack of orders and pressure on capital repatriation, end - users were indifferent to price fluctuations. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promoted the rise of raw material prices and accelerated inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, the price may rise further. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions on dips and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Points Summary**: On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in December, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was - 140 yuan per ton, the production profit was 304,860 tons, the supply was - 165, the demand was 314,910 tons, and the inventory was 1.0051 million tons. The long - short scores were all neutral. The short - term market was supported by policy expectations, and if the nickel ore supply quota was tightened, prices might rise further. It was recommended to consider long positions on dips and monitor policy implementation [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [16]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 79) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 140 yuan (- 129) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk was 191,862 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.68% [19]. - The spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 2 was - 90 (- 60), and the spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 3 was - 155 (- 65) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48% [26]. - In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [29]. - In November, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [32]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [39]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [42]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the automobile sales volume in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons [49]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 13.7647 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [56]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [59]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, with no week - on - week change; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 165 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reached - 1.24% [65].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market should adopt a cautious approach. The demand in December is relatively high due to winter storage, but the marginal supply benefits are decreasing. According to seasonal patterns, rubber prices are likely to reach a phased high between January and February. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The market logic shows that the bulls are mainly driven by China's winter storage expectations and positive policy expectations, while the bears are mainly concerned about the current weak demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased [15]. - The EU's anti - deforestation law (EUDR) has been postponed, which has a short - term negative impact on demand. The marginal impact of different postponement announcements varies [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The full - steel tire production start - up rate of tire factories is 59.55% (-2.40%), with normal demand for full - steel tires. The export expectations of semi - steel and full - steel tires to Europe are weakening. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 69.83 (1.52) million tons [15]. - **Supply**: The rainy season in Thailand has basically ended. There are still significant differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 million tons. The market expects subsequent rubber storage plans [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a cautious approach and temporarily observe. Consider the strategy of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for potential band trading opportunities when the spread is above 3250 [15][17]. 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [50]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to decline in the first half of the year. The overseas demand expectations for rubber are marginally weakening, while China's demand is stable. The comparison data between rubber and other commodities are basically normal, with no special values [24][29][35]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - The comparison data between rubber and other commodities such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities are basically normal, with no special values [39][42][46]. 3.5 Demand End - The start - up rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values. The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but expected to decline slightly in the future [55][58][61]. 3.6 Supply End - Most of the rubber import data sources are no longer updated after 2021, reducing the analyzability of imports. The supply data of major rubber - producing countries are basically normal, with no special values [65][69][83]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1.1677 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The export was 0.8696 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27% [100][101]. 3.7 Rubber - Related Industry Chain (Butadiene and Ethylene) - **Butadiene**: In 2025, new butadiene production capacity was put into operation, increasing the supply expectation and decreasing the processing profit expectation. The import expectation is high, weakening the price. In the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the butadiene production capacity is expected to increase passively with the expansion of refining and chemical projects. The new production capacity growth rate in 2026 is lower than that in 2025, but the supply is still under pressure [120][122][125]. - **Ethylene**: During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle. It is expected that the total capacity will reach 8500 - 9000 million tons/year by 2030, maintaining the world's first position [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner with limited upside and downside space. The upward space of the ore price is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. The main factors to watch in the future are the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [11][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In December, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 3,525.68 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 228.93 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In January, it is expected that the arrivals will continue to increase, but the shipments will decline month-on-month as it turns to the traditional off-season for mine shipments [11][13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in December was 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. With the end of some blast furnace overhauls, the hot metal production may increase slightly [11][13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were at a high level in the same period of history, while steel mills' imported ore inventories were at a low level in the same period, with some restocking demand [11][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of December, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 117 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 82 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 137 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -17.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **In - furnace Proportion and Scrap Steel**: At the end of December, the pellet in - furnace proportion was 14.69%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore in - furnace proportion was 11.98%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The sinter in - furnace proportion was 73.33%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of December, the profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 351.56 million tons, an increase of 49.21 million tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1,356.04 million tons, an increase of 71.61 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 2,144.66 million tons, an increase of 165.29 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 6,941.26 million tons, an increase of 633.8 million tons, and the Brazilian ore port inventory was 5,669.56 million tons, a decrease of 317.47 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8,860.19 million tons, a decrease of 82.29 million tons [35][41][43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In December, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 746.83 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 142.20 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 575.30 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.90 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 602.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.40 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 392.35 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.07 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In December, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1,900.41 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 84.50 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of December, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 55.53%, a decrease of 5.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 43.39 million tons, a decrease of 4.09 million tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The estimated domestic hot metal production in December was 7,074.96 million tons, with a daily average of 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. At the end of December, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a decrease of 3.04 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In December, the weekly average of 45 - port iron ore daily ore removal volume was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of December 31, the calculated basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 52.61 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.25% [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, China's refined copper production is expected to decline slightly, but consumption remains supported, with a tendency for supply to exceed demand. Overseas demand is expected to be slightly weak, while the US tariff expectation continues to push the spot price higher. At the macro - level, the marginal relaxation of US financial liquidity, moderate domestic policy stimulus, and the enhanced strategic resource value due to overseas geopolitical disturbances are still favorable factors. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level with a slowdown in the upward trend. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 92,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is expected to be between 11,500 - 13,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or try to go long after a decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: Overseas copper mine supply has marginal disturbances, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remains unchanged, and the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In December 2025, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January [9]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to decline. In January, the downstream start - up is expected to remain stable. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is slightly weak [9]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. The price difference between US copper and LME copper weakened but remained positive [9]. - **Inventory**: In December 2025, the inventories of SHFE and COMEX increased, the LME inventory decreased, the bonded - area inventory remained stable, and the total inventory increased, but there are still structural problems. It is estimated that China's inventory will continue to accumulate in January [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In December 2025, the copper price fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 12.4% and hit the 100,000 - yuan mark. The LME 3M copper contract rose 11.8%. The US dollar index weakened, and the offshore RMB broke through the 7 - yuan mark [17]. - **Market Spreads**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. At the end of the month, the domestic copper price was stronger than the LME copper price. The COMEX - LME copper price difference fluctuated and narrowed, and the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the spread [19]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 840,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the end of November. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased. The LME market's Cash/3M strengthened, and the domestic basis weakened [22][25]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of late December 2025, the CFTC fund position remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 22.6%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds remained relatively high, and the sentiment was positive [28]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mines**: In November 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons. In October 2025, Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 248,000 tons. In December 2025, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply was slightly loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined, and the 2026 annual long - term contract benchmark price was set at 0 US dollars/ton [33][36]. - **Refined Copper**: In December 2025, the domestic blister copper processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of cold materials remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, strengthened. China's refined copper production increased significantly in December 2025, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January 2026 [39][42]. - **Recycled Copper**: In December 2025, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 4,300 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. The start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained weak [45]. 3.3.2 Demand - **China**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.356 million tons, a significant year - on - year decline. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to December 2025 was about 16.29 million tons, a 4.3% year - on - year increase. The average start - up rate of copper products enterprises is expected to decline in December 2025 and remain stable in January 2026. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises weakened in December 2025, and the start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026. The power investment decreased year - on - year in November 2025, and the new photovoltaic installation decreased year - on - year. The real - estate transaction data in December 2025 was weaker than the same period last year, and the automobile sales data was relatively strong [48][51][54]. - **Overseas**: In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was differentiated. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased slightly year - on - year in October 2025, and the consumption from January to October increased by about 5.1% [63]. 3.4 Macro Analysis - In November 2025, the US unemployment rate rose, and inflation data weakened. The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain loose. In December 2025, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US gradually stabilized, showing a relative divergence from the copper price trend [67][69].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the market showed a significant upward trend or rebound after a series of important macro - events. The overall market sentiment turned bullish, but there was a risk of short - term market sentiment shock due to the possible "flame - out" of previous sentiment "leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate [15][96]. - For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by the direction of the black market and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push issues on the manganese silicon side and supply contraction problems on the ferrosilicon side [15][96]. - In the context of the current bullish commodity sentiment, low port manganese ore inventory, and concentrated ownership of high - grade manganese ore, it is necessary to pay close attention to possible sudden events in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [14][20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][25]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][30]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [14][44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year [14][59][62]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period [14][70]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 0.00%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [25]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of South African ore was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Australian ore was 41.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 1.7 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Gabonese ore was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 110 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [27][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In November 2025, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 439.58 tons, down 7.22 tons month - on - month [36]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in December 2025 was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56][59][62]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's perspective was 39.35 tons, up 0.75 tons month - on - month [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December 2025, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level in historical statistics [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In December 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile rebound, rising 300 yuan/ton or 5.33% month - on - month. At the daily - line level, it continued the volatile rebound trend after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024 and was in a short - term upward cycle with no obvious position increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [95][101]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][106]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][112]. - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [95][117]. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [95][123][126]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.33 tons, up 0.03 tons month - on - month, remaining at a relatively neutral level in the same period [95][140]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [106]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of semi - coke small materials was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main - production - area electricity price was unchanged month - on - month. The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [109][112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [117]. - **Demand**: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment gradually resumed, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mining area is expected to cause the ore price to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea's ores. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, increasing the market's expectation of the implementation of supply contraction policies in the future. However, the continuous rebound still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting sector, downward - moving cost support, and the delivery pressure of expired warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, as the cost - effectiveness of chasing long positions is not high. If there are no actual production cut actions, opportunities can be awaited to arrange short positions in the near - term contracts at high prices. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton, and key attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of December 31, the alumina index increased by 0.58% to 2755 yuan/ton compared with the price on November 28. Multiple factors such as high production, high inventory, and falling ore prices drove the alumina futures price to decline rapidly at the beginning of December. However, at the end of December, the National Development and Reform Commission's article increased the market's expectation of supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in the futures price. For the continuous rebound of alumina, attention should be paid to the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the launch of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. In terms of basis, the spot changed from premium to discount in December, and as of December 31, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 44 yuan/ton compared with the AO2602 contract price. The policy expectation drove the futures price to strengthen. In terms of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts, it continued to widen in December, reaching 126 yuan/ton as of December 31 [12]. - **Spot Price**: Alumina production remained at a high level within the month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on the spot price. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the oversupply situation is expected to be difficult to reverse. As of January 4, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2745 yuan/ton, 2790 yuan/ton, 2690 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton, 2665 yuan/ton, and 2960 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant declines compared with the beginning of December [12]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 22.9 tons to 517.1 tons compared with the beginning of November. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 2.7 tons, 1 ton, 4.9 tons, and decreased by 2.9 tons respectively. As of December 31, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10.15 tons to 15.69 tons compared with the beginning of December, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 6.75 tons to 19.34 tons [12]. - **Mineral End**: After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the AXIS mining area, which had been shut down since May this year, resumed production, further exacerbating the bauxite oversupply situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. According to SMM research, the long - term contract price of a large - scale mine in Guinea in the first quarter of 2026 was reduced by 7.5 dollars to 66.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the support at the CIF price of 60 dollars/ton for Guinea's bauxite [13]. - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, alumina production was 784 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19%. According to the overseas alumina enterprise production plans, 200 tons and 100 tons will be put into production in the first and second quarters of next year respectively, with the increments mainly from Indonesia and Vietnam. The long - term overseas production plan is still 1560 tons, but the overall construction progress is slow [13]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the net import of alumina was 6.44 tons. The opening of the previous import window continued to drive the monthly net import. The import volume increased from 19 tons last month to 23 tons, and the export volume decreased from 18 tons to 17 tons. The total net export in the first eleven months of 2025 was 137 tons [13]. - **Demand Side**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4464 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared with the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot End - **Spot Price**: Alumina production remained at a high level within the month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on the spot price. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the oversupply situation is expected to be difficult to reverse. As of January 4, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2745 yuan/ton, 2790 yuan/ton, 2690 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton, 2665 yuan/ton, and 2960 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant declines compared with the beginning of December [20]. - **Futures Price**: As of December 31, the alumina index increased by 0.58% to 2755 yuan/ton compared with the price on November 28. Multiple factors such as high production, high inventory, and falling ore prices drove the alumina futures price to decline rapidly at the beginning of December. However, at the end of December, the National Development and Reform Commission's article increased the market's expectation of supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in the futures price. For the continuous rebound of alumina, attention should be paid to the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the launch of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. In terms of basis, the spot changed from premium to discount in December, and as of December 31, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 44 yuan/ton compared with the AO2602 contract price. The policy expectation drove the futures price to strengthen. In terms of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts, it continued to widen in December, reaching 126 yuan/ton as of December 31 [23]. 3.3 Raw Material End - **Bauxite Price**: In December, the domestic ore prices in various regions remained stable. As of December 31, the CIF price of Guinea decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 66 dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 67 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the AXIS mining area, which had been shut down since May this year, resumed production, further exacerbating the bauxite oversupply situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. According to SMM research, the long - term contract price of a large - scale mine in Guinea in the first quarter of 2026 was reduced by 7.5 dollars to 66.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the support at the CIF price of 60 dollars/ton for Guinea's bauxite [28]. - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 469.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 5521 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. Affected by environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month. In November 2025, the bauxite import was 1511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.34% and a month - on - month increase of 9.76%. The total import in the first eleven months of 2025 was 18651 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.44% [30][32]. - **Guinea Bauxite Import**: In November 2025, China imported 1071 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 33.84% and a month - on - month increase of 19%. The cumulative import from Guinea in the first eleven months of 2025 was 13813 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.01%. The shipment recovered after the rainy season [35]. - **Bauxite Port Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the bauxite shipment volume of major countries around the world rebounded to the highest level of the year. The latest data of China's bauxite port inventory was 2602 tons, with a slight decrease in inventory but still abundant reserves. In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 78 tons, reaching a total of 5329 tons, still at a high level in the past five years, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 27 tons in November, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 47 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [38][40]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Alumina Production**: In November 2025, alumina production was 784 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% [44]. - **New Alumina Production Capacity in 2026**: The total new production capacity in China in 2026 is expected to be 1340 tons, with 580 tons in the first quarter, 240 tons in the second quarter, 120 tons in the third quarter, and 400 tons in the fourth quarter [46]. - **Overseas Alumina Production Plan**: According to the overseas alumina enterprise production plans, 200 tons and 100 tons will be put into production in the first and second quarters of next year respectively, with the increments mainly from Indonesia and Vietnam. The long - term overseas production plan is still 1560 tons, but the overall construction progress is slow [47]. - **Alumina Production Profit**: As of December 31, the alumina spot price continued to decline, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. However, due to the simultaneous decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and bauxite at the cost end, alumina plants did not experience deep losses. According to the alumina spot price on December 31, the current production profit in Guangxi could reach 120 yuan/ton; relying on coastal advantages and low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong were - 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The transportation cost of imported ore from ports for inland alumina plants was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, using Guinea ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses of 150 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively [49]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Alumina Import and Export Data**: In November 2025, the net import of alumina was 6.44 tons. The opening of the previous import window continued to drive the monthly net import. The import volume increased from 19 tons last month to 23 tons, and the export volume decreased from 18 tons to 17 tons. The total net export in the first eleven months of 2025 was 137 tons [53]. - **Alumina Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 31, the FOB price of Australia decreased by 4 dollars/ton to 308 dollars/ton compared with the end of November, and the import profit and loss was - 83 yuan/ton. The current import window was closed [56]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 4055 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.67% [61]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Rate**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4464 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared with the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [64]. - **Alumina Balance Sheet**: The report provides the alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on supply, demand, import, and export [65]. 3.7 Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of December 26, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 22.9 tons to 517.1 tons compared with the beginning of November. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 2.7 tons, 1 ton, 4.9 tons, and decreased by 2.9 tons respectively [70]. - **Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10.15 tons to 15.69 tons compared with the beginning of December, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 6.75 tons to 19.34 tons [72].

市场波动较大， 建议观望 碳酸锂月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：12月31日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报116867元，月涨25.6%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为117250元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价121580元，本周涨26.1%。 ◆ 供给：12月31日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报22450吨，环比增1.2%。2025年12月国内碳酸锂产量99200吨，环比增4.0%，同比增42.4%，全年 同比增43.6%。 ◆ 需求：据乘联分会，12月1-28日，全国乘用车新能源车市场零售119.2万辆，同比去年12月同期增长5%，较上月同期增长1%，今年以来累计 零售1266.4万辆，同比增长18%。1月湖南裕能、万润新材、德方纳米和常州锂源等头部磷酸铁锂企业减产，淡季需求回落。 ◆ ...

利多出尽，关注价格高位 回落风险 贵金属月报 2025/01/04 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 沪金指数前期在三角收敛末端向上突破，但当前短期上涨趋势已被破坏，在价格下跌的同时持仓量显著回落， 国际金价短期来看仍具备一定的回调空间，关注下方943元/克一线支撑。 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 ◆ 月度行情总结：本月贵金属价格呈现加速上涨后的冲高回落态势，国际银价表现尤为突出，12月1日至30日，COMEX白银主力合约价格上涨 25.5%至76.02美元/盎司，在盘中触及82.67美元/盎司的历史新高。同期沪银主力合约价格上涨25.71%至17074元/千克，并在盘中触及19998 元/千克的历史新高。对比之下，国际金价的涨幅则相对有限，统计期内COMEX黄金主力合约价格上涨2.2%至4352.3美元/盎 ...