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五矿期货贵金属日报-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:41
Group 1: Market Data - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% [4] - London gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%; London silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [4] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 0.15%; SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,056.66 tons, down 0.04% [4] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 4.23%, down 0.14 percentage points; TIPS was 1.90%, down 0.08 percentage points [4] - The US dollar index was 98.69, down 1.36%; the offshore RMB was 7.2545, down 0.49% [4] - The Dow Jones Index was 43,588.58, down 1.23%; the S&P 500 was 6,238.01, down 1.60%; the Nasdaq Index was 20,650.13, down 2.24%; the VIX Index was 20.38, up 21.89% [4] - The London FTSE 100 was 9,068.58, down 0.70%; the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index was 40,799.60, down 0.66% [4] Group 2: Market Performance of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold closed at 3,416.00 dollars/ounce, up 2.21%; trading volume was 22.23 million lots, up 43.81%; open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%; inventory was 1,204 tons, up 0.10% [7] - LBMA gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46% [7] - SHFE gold closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, up 0.06%; trading volume was 22.64 million lots, down 30.20%; open interest was 43.16 million lots, up 0.44%; inventory was 35.75 tons, up 0.29%; precipitation funds were 53.229 billion yuan, up 0.50% [7] - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08%; trading volume was 24.78 tons, down 23.64%; open interest was 206.33 tons, down 1.85% [7] - COMEX silver closed at 37.11 dollars/ounce, up 0.86%; open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93%; inventory was 15,759 tons, up 0.29% [7] - LBMA silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [7] - SHFE silver closed at 8,918.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.00%; trading volume was 77.75 million lots, down 44.22%; open interest was 78.57 million lots, down 1.47%; inventory was 1,183.96 tons, down 1.99%; precipitation funds were 18.918 billion yuan, down 2.46% [7] - Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80%; trading volume was 421.57 tons, down 37.62%; open interest was 3,483.588 tons, up 1.26% [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data reversed the previous market judgment on the resilience of the US economy; after the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy rebounded significantly [2][3] - The CME interest rate observer shows that the current market expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [3] - With Trump's strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the much lower-than-expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] - The precious metals strategy suggests buying on dips; the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 773 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8,885 - 9,287 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Price Comparison and Spread Analysis - Gold internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was -15.23 yuan/gram (-65.69 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was -13.61 yuan/gram (-58.87 dollars/ounce) [54] - Silver internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was 317.21 yuan/kilogram (1.37 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was 327.56 yuan/kilogram (1.42 dollars/ounce) [54]
站在政策主线角度回顾2016年焦煤行情
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:25
专题报告 2025-08-04 站在政策主线角度回顾 2016 年焦煤行情 报告要点: 黑色研究员 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 我们完整回顾了 2016 年焦煤从底部 515.5 元/吨一路攀升至 1650.5 元/吨的过程。观察到了政 策是如何一步步从提出、细化、强化到最终落地,盘面行情又是如何一步步从混沌、质疑最后 到坚信、狂热的过程。单纯站在"供给侧结构性改革"政策主线的视角之下,我们能够清晰的 感受到高级别政策的强大意志以及其对于行情的强烈指引性。我们认为这是在基本面之上更为 清晰而且底层的主线,且领先于品种自身的基本面情况。 陈张滢 黑色金属研究 | 黑色 站在政策主线角度回顾 2016 年焦煤行情 "看它的过去,就可以知道它的现在;看它的过去和现在,就可以知道它的将来。" 借着"反内卷"之下对于当前这轮浩浩荡荡行情的思考,我们尝试换一个视角去观察焦煤 2016 年"供给侧结构性改革"之下的行情。全文我们将主要以"供给侧结构性改革"政策相关的主 要会议、文件为展开脉络(按时间顺序),并对应到当时焦煤盘面的价格 ...
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as tariff policies, market sentiment, and supply - demand relationships [1][3][5][7][8][10][12][14][17]. - For copper, the price increase is limited in the current off - season, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by relatively low domestic ingot inventories, but the rebound space is limited due to the off - season and export pressure [3]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly as the supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc has a high risk of price decline as the industry data is weak and the previous supporting factors are weakening [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and the upcoming resumption of production in Myanmar [6][7]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an over - capacity pattern, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12]. - Stainless steel prices may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited rebound space due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 0.66% to $9633/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78170 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons, with different changes in each exchange. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons [1]. - The spot import of copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic basis increased due to tight supply [1]. - The scrap - refined copper price difference was 800 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, while that of cable enterprises decreased [1]. - The expected trading range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9400 - 9900/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%, and LME aluminum fell 2.26% to $2571/ton [3]. - The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 76,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 49,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 544,000 tons, and bonded area inventory decreased to 108,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons [3]. - The spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the buyer sentiment was weak in the off - season [3]. - The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline, except for a slight improvement in aluminum rod [3]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $2.6/ton [3]. - The expected trading range for domestic SHFE aluminum this week is 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2520 - 2620/ton [3]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.07% to 16,736 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1966.5/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [4]. - SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,900 tons, and LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons [4]. - The supply of lead is expected to remain loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.15% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2749/ton [5]. - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 103,200 tons [5]. - Zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August [5]. - The downstream operating rate declined significantly, and the short - term consumption of zinc ingots weakened [5]. - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [5]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated downwards [6]. - The supply in Yunnan is currently short, and some smelters plan to stop for maintenance. The supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter [6]. - Domestic consumption is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and LME price range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, down 3.69% [8]. - The macro - environment and the overall over - supply situation of stainless steel and nickel iron put pressure on nickel prices [8]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for SHFE nickel of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel 3M of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, down 10.41% for the week [10]. - The price of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased [10]. - The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points [10]. - The expected trading range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on GZEE is 66,700 - 71,500 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On August 1, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.65% to 3153 yuan/ton [12]. - The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the import window was closed [12]. - The futures warehouse receipts remained at a historical low [12]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [14]. - The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged [14]. - The social inventory decreased slightly, but the 300 - series inventory increased [14]. - The stainless steel price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated downwards, with the AD2511 contract down 1.07% to 19,920 yuan/ton [17]. - The weighted contract position decreased, and the price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 contracts increased [17]. - The spot price decreased, and the downstream trading was light in the off - season [17]. - The production cost decreased, and the production volume increased slightly [17]. - The inventory increased, and the price rebound space is limited [17].
黑色建材日报-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 23:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has reached the short - term expected target price. With a bearish macro trend and geopolitical bullish expectations still in place, it is recommended to take profits and then wait and observe [3]. - For methanol, it is currently over - valued and the supply - demand balance is weakening, so the price is under pressure [5]. - For urea, it remains in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is not advisable to be overly bearish [7]. - For rubber, considering the expected bearish US non - farm data and the overall decline of industrial products, there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to wait and observe for now, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [21]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the short term [24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is changing from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures closed down $2.10, a 3.03% decline, at $67.26; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $3.03, a 4.18% decline, at $69.52; INE main crude oil futures closed down 3.50 yuan, a 0.66% decline, at 527.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: According to the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.76 million barrels, a 3.79% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 12.91 million barrels, a 1.26% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.23 million barrels, a 1.70% decline; naphtha inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 5.28 million barrels, a 4.08% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.61 million barrels to 6.49 million barrels, a 10.47% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 40.66 million barrels, a 0.41% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 1, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The supply - side corporate profit is still high, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand side is weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Overall, it is over - valued and the supply - demand balance is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 1, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1709 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell, with a basis of +41 [7]. - **Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing but still at a medium - high level year - on - year. The corporate profit is poor, and the operating rate is expected to increase. The demand side has insufficient export docking and the domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Overall, it is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell significantly, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in potential production cuts and improved demand expectations, while bears think the macro outlook is uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and production cuts may be less than expected. The tire factory operating rate decreased, and the inventory is under pressure [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Considering the expected bearish US non - farm data and the overall decline of industrial products, wait and observe for now. Consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 26 yuan to 5015 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (-30) yuan/ton, the basis was -95 (-4) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -136 (-1) yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate increased, the demand side's downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory increased. It has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [14]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [16]. - **Analysis**: The short - term macro positive expectations have landed, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - side operating rate fluctuated upward [16][17]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price fell, and the basis weakened [20]. - **Analysis**: The short - term macro positive expectations have landed, and the cost side still has support. The valuation has limited downward space. The trade inventory is at a high level, and the demand side is in the off - season. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price fell, and the basis weakened [21]. - **Analysis**: The Shandong refinery profit stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side operating rate decreased seasonally. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 116 yuan to 6812 yuan, the PX CFR fell 12 dollars to 846 dollars, and the basis was 160 (+18) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 22 (-42) yuan [23]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate remains high, the downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased, and the overall operating rate decreased. However, the PTA inventory is low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the short term [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 64 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was -13 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was -38 (-6) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 9 yuan to 4405 yuan, the East China spot price fell 23 yuan to 4480 yuan, the basis was 73 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was -34 (-7) yuan [26]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The fundamental situation is changing from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [26].
锡周报:缅甸复产持续推进,锡价承压运行-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated and declined. In terms of supply, the mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. However, in the short term, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and some smelters are preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have resumed production, but the subsequent output is difficult to increase due to the limited supply of scrap tin. In terms of demand, domestic consumption during the off - season remains poor, and downstream factories are cautious about restocking tin raw materials. Overseas, the demand for tin driven by AI computing power remains strong. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly this week. Overall, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: The mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. In Yunnan, raw material shortages are severe, and smelter raw material inventories are generally less than 30 days, with some enterprises preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have ended maintenance and gradually resumed production, but the supply of scrap tin is limited, and subsequent output growth is difficult [11]. - **Import and Export**: The resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar is slow, and the supply from other regions is limited. China's tin ore imports remain at a low level. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total import volume of tin concentrates was 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption during the off - season is poor, and downstream factory orders are generally low. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July also decreased significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics have weak growth, and market sentiment is cautious. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry is relatively stable [11]. - **Summary**: Tin supply is at a low level, and demand is also weak. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides charts of the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is given [18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report provides charts of tin import and export profits, but no specific analysis content is given [24][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of tin ingots in China and the LME inventory charts are provided. As of August 1, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese markets was 10,661 tons, an increase of 272 tons compared to last Friday [11][27]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In May, affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Import and Export**: In May, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. The export of unforged non - alloy tin was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. The import of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 9,508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [38][41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the increase in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption is still dominant, and the increase mainly comes from the production of photovoltaic modules and the recovery of semiconductor consumption. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption also drove the growth of tin consumption, but overall growth was slower than in China [51]. - **Semiconductor**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month [62]. - **Home Appliances**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [70].
橡胶周报:胶价大幅回吐涨幅-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Despite a significant drop in prices, the current stage is a bottom - building phase due to the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices rose significantly on July 25, 2025, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Still need to pay attention to the situation where tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid additional tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - bullish factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Mid - term bullish. Given the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply and the current bottom - building phase, it is advisable to go long at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large decline, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the spread is at a low level and can be configured for repeated band operations [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Seasonal characteristics: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. Other ratios are generally normal without special values [26][30][33]. 3.3 Profit and Ratio - Ratios: Ratios such as rubber/copper, rubber/Brent crude oil, rubber/thread, rubber/iron ore, rubber/Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber/GEM Index are generally normal without special values. The synchronization of multiple varieties such as black commodities and rubber reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand [41][44][48]. 3.4 Cost Side - Cost estimates: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally estimated to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan whole - latex in China is generally estimated to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan whole - latex is estimated to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Tire factory situation: The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 61.08% (- 3.94%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - Mid - stream demand: The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the supporting tire market. The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [62][65]. 3.6 Supply Side - Device overview: Provided an overview of the production capacities and operating conditions of butadiene raw material and butadiene rubber (cis - butadiene rubber) devices of various manufacturers. Some devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments [14][15]. - New capacity: In 2025, there are new capacity additions in the rubber industry, with a total capacity increase of 1130,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 16%. Major new projects include Jilin Petrochemical's second - phase project, Yulong Petrochemical's second - phase project, etc. [17]. - Production data: In May 2025, rubber production was 791,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The production data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed different trends [103].
苯乙烯周报:宏观利好预期落地,供需双弱未见起色-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:34
徐绍祖(联系人) 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号: Z0022675 宏观利好预期落地, 供需双弱未见起色 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号:F03115061 2025/08/02 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 ◆ 政策端:化工板块反套行情反馈"反内卷"政策,中央政治局会议成功召开,短期宏观利好落地,宏观交易情绪或将转移至 成本端主导。 ◆ 估值:苯乙烯周度跌幅(期货>现货>成本),基差走强,BZN价差下降,EB非一体化装置利润下降。 ◆ 成本端:上周华东纯苯价格上涨1.75%,纯苯开工高位回落。 ◆ 供应端:EB产能利用率78.8%,环比上涨0.64%,同比去年上涨16.05%,较5年同期下降-2.23%。根据投产计划观察,三季度 投产计划较少,全年最大投产压力在四季度。 ◆ 进出口:6月国内纯苯进口量为354.56万吨,环比5月下降-12.59%,同比去年上涨23.57%,主要为中东地区货源。6月EB进口 量22 ...
生猪周报:关注月差波动-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, and the original oversupply logic has been restructured. The valuations of futures contracts have increased significantly, especially for the far - end contracts. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter will increase, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the month - spread may move towards a positive spread structure. For far - month contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for the time being, and the month - spread tends to be in a reverse spread. Due to the ongoing industrial restructuring, the uncertainty of single - side trading has increased, and more attention should be paid to month - spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, pig prices rebounded after a decline. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand highlights, pig prices initially fell. However, towards the end of the month, the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm and increased downstream procurement difficulty led to a price rebound. The weekly average price in Henan increased by 0.1 yuan to 14.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.06 yuan to 13.66 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.18 yuan to 15.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, limited supply and upstream reluctance to sell may support prices, but as the supply recovers and market stocking weakens, pig prices may remain weak in the first half of the month [11]. - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [11]. - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is no recommendation for single - side trading currently; instead, focus on the support level of the November contract. For arbitrage, consider a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread in August, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and a core driving logic related to policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Pig prices rebounded after a decline last week. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand, prices initially fell but rebounded towards the end of the month. The slaughter volume remained high, the average trading weight continued to decline, and the weight of individual farmers increased. The fat - standard price difference remained high. Although the spot price is weak, there is an expectation of a price increase in August [22][25]. - **Basis and Spread Movement**: The spot price is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [25]. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [42][49]. - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: The theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure [42]. - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs is gradually increasing as the weight increases [45]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased, indicating that the market is actively increasing supply [49]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [51]. - **Secondary Fattening and Barn Utilization**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [53]. 3.4. Demand Side The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit Costs have slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom and are generally lower year - on - year. Due to the lagged effect of low costs, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side Frozen pork inventory is moderately low but is slowly increasing [74].
不锈钢周报:货源流转速度加快,补库动力有望增强-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, driven by the overall price - rising atmosphere, steel mills and agents had smooth sales, and the inventory digestion speed accelerated. Currently, the inventory of Qing - series agents has significantly decreased. With steel mills' recent suspension of distribution for the 300 - series, agent spot resources are becoming scarce, especially in hot - rolled specifications. Traders have relatively sufficient inventory due to previous active restocking. Since July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy, the restocking enthusiasm in the trading sector has been high, but limited by the actual terminal demand, the social inventory remains at a high level. The nickel - iron market is dull, with steel mills and traders mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude, while high - nickel - iron producers have a strong willingness to hold prices. It is expected that with the production increase of steel mills in August, the demand for high - nickel iron will increase month - on - month, and the oversupply situation of nickel iron is expected to improve. Overall, the stainless - steel price may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the 13130 pressure level on the price [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On August 2nd, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [11]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11]. - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [11]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [11]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Periodic and Spot Market - On August 1st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 190 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 140 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract. The disk position was 203,902 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 45 (- 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 100 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply End - In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, in June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [30]. - It is estimated that in June, the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand End - From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [43]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week [50]. - This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [53]. 3.6. Cost End - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [57]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/dry ton compared with last week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,900 yuan/50 - base ton, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base ton compared with last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, and the profit rate reaches - 6.02%. With the warming of downstream consumption sentiment, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].