01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 供应偏紧，铝价震荡走强 铝月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 04 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422万吨（建成产能4578万吨），行业开工率月度环比维稳；11月电解铝 产量环比减少2.8%、同比增长1.5%，预计12月运行产能环比小幅增加，铝水比例预计延续小幅下滑。 ◆ 库存&现货：11月末铝锭现货库存录得59万吨，月环比下降1.5万吨。12月初库存增加。保税区库存录得6.1万吨，月环比下降0.7万吨。铝棒 库存合计14.4万吨，月环比下降0.9万吨。LME全球铝库存录得53.8万吨，环比减少1.6万吨，处于往年同期低位。11月末国内华东铝锭现货 贴水于期货35元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the fundamental perspective, although the previous peak season was lackluster, the demand after the peak season was not too bad. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices. However, there was no strong driving force in the short term, and coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the price of US cotton futures declined slightly. As of November 28, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was 64.73 cents per pound, a decrease of 2.05 cents per pound or 3.07% from the previous month. The spread between the March and May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reaching - 1.24 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous month. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated within a narrow range. As of November 28, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,725 yuan per ton, an increase of 130 yuan per ton or 0.96% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis was 1,189 yuan per ton, a decrease of 65 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reaching 40 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years (72.1%). The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the latest monthly supply - demand report of the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the US was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the forecast of 5.23 million tons; and the production in China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Fundamentally, the previous peak season was lackluster, but the demand after the peak season was not too bad. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices. However, there was no strong driving force in the short term, and coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On November 28, 2025, the basis was 1,189 yuan per ton, the spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was 40 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 1,034 yuan per ton, the spread between Zhejiang and Xinjiang was 367 yuan per ton, and the cost (FC index M 1%) was 12,935 yuan per ton, and (FC index M sliding - scale duty) was 13,932 yuan per ton. The multi - empty scores were all +0, and the basis weakened while other indicators changed little. The conclusion was that the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: The recommended strategy was to wait and see [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presented multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, the import profit (1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal and external spreads), the Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads (1 - 5 and 5 - 9), the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread, the spinning mill immediate profit, the US cotton contract spreads (12 - 3 and 3 - 5), and the external spreads (US - Brazil spread and FCindexM1% - CotlookA index 1% tariff) [25][27][29] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: The report showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [38]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton were presented [40]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China were shown [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn were presented [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were shown [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City were presented [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory of Chinese cotton were shown [53]. - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: The cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills were presented [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: The proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the excellent - good rate were shown, as well as the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [59][60]. - **US Production and Planting Area**: The production forecast and planting area of US cotton were presented [63]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year were shown [65]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton were presented [67]. - **US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton were shown [68]. - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: The planting area and production of Brazilian cotton were presented [70]. - **Brazilian Export Volume**: The export volume of Brazilian cotton was shown [73]. - **Brazilian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton were shown [75]. - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: The planting area and production of Indian cotton were presented [78]. - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton were shown [81]. - **Indian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton were shown [83].

预期分歧仍存， 关注产业面动态 碳酸锂月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：12月5日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报90869元，周跌2.36%，月涨9%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为93300元。同日广期 所LC2605收盘价92160元，本周跌4.42%。 ◆ 供给：12月4日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报21939吨，环比增0.3%。2025年11月国内碳酸锂产量95350吨，环比增3.3%，同比增48.7%，前11 月累计同比增43.7%。2025年11月智利碳酸锂出口数量为1.8万吨，环比减少28%，其中出口至中国的量1.47万吨，环比减少9%。11月智利出 口硫酸锂10132吨，全部出口至中国，环比增长493%。 ◆ 需求：据乘联分会初步统计，11月1-30日，全国乘用车市场零售226.3万辆，同比去年同期下降7%，较上月增长 ...

低估值强成本， 难以抵抗弱基本面 PVC月报 2025/12/05 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 期现市场—基差走强、月间价差偏弱 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，月同比上涨100元/吨；山东电石价格报2905元/吨，月同比上涨75元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨， 月同比上涨70元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润进一步下滑至历史低位水平，乙烯制利润延续低位，整体估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.2%，月同比上升2%；其中电石法83.6%，月同比上升6.2%；乙烯法72.4%，月同比下降7.8%。上月检修量持稳，平均 产能利用率维持高位，叠加新装置释放产量，供应压力延续十月，日均产量持续创新高。本月检修力度预期减小，甘肃耀望释放产量，预计 供给压力进一步增大。 ◆ ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices. With the increase in the BZN spread and EB non - integrated plant profits, the overall valuation is moderately high. Amid the narrowing supply of pure benzene, styrene production continues to decline. As the seasonal off - peak season arrives, the profits of downstream three S products are at historically low levels, providing weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices [11]. - Valuation: Styrene has seen monthly declines (cost > futures > spot), with a strengthening basis, a strengthening BZN spread, and rising EB non - integrated plant profits [11]. - Cost: The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.21%, and the closing price of the active contract dropped by 0.96%. The basis fell by 12 yuan/ton, and pure benzene production reached its lowest level in the same period. Last month, China's pure benzene imports were 496770 tons, a 14.18% month - on - month increase and a 14.50% year - on - year increase, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 67.29%, a 0.85% month - on - month increase but a 3.73% year - on - year decrease and an 11.81% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in Q4 will increase month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and Export: Last month, EB imports were 33120 tons, a 34.31% month - on - month increase and a 58.24% year - on - year increase [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products was 42.34%, a 0.23% month - on - month increase. The PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 3.04% month - on - month increase but a 6.39% year - on - year decrease; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 2.70% month - on - month decrease but a 13.75% year - on - year increase; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.66% month - on - month decrease but a 3.46% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, the increase in the operating rate was lower than in previous years [11]. - Inventory: EB factory inventory was 19040 tons, a 2.36% month - on - month increase and a 48.54% year - on - year increase; EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16420 tons, a 14.92% month - on - month decrease but a 421.27% year - on - year increase. Pure benzene port inventory decreased significantly, but styrene port inventory remained at a high level [12]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for styrene (EB2601) is 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton; for pure benzene (BZ2603), it is 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton [12]. - Recommended Strategy: Hold short positions [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple graphs related to styrene, including spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [15][18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Styrene profits rebounded from a low level. The production process of styrene mainly consists of 85% ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% PO/SM co - production, and 3% C8 extraction [40][43]. - Inventory: The report shows graphs of pure benzene and styrene port inventories, as well as styrene factory inventories, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [33][36][37]. 3.4 Cost End - Production Plan: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311000 tons. There are differences in production capacity increases in each quarter [50]. - Price and Spread: The report presents graphs of pure benzene price spreads, import profits, and BZN spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [56][57][59]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of pure benzene showed a seasonal rebound. The profits of phenol and aniline continued to decline, with a moderately fluctuating operating rate. The profits of caprolactam recovered, and the factory inventory of caprolactam decreased significantly [63][71][84]. 3.5 Supply End - Production Increase: In Q4 2025, the supply of styrene will increase, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 242000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419800 tons [96][98][100]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of styrene continued to decline [106]. 3.6 Demand End - Profit: The profits of EPS and PS were at low levels in the same period. The operating rate of ABS decreased as profits declined [116][124]. - Downstream Products: The report also analyzed the production, sales, and inventory of household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, showing that the year - on - year production of washing machines was moderately high [135][143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Glass Report - In November, multiple glass production lines in China were shut down for maintenance, reducing the daily melting volume by 6,050 tons (equivalent to about 121,000 heavy boxes). However, this did not support glass prices. Market anticipation had been digested, and high inventory led to price - suppressing promotional strategies. The glass market is undervalued, but the real - estate sector's downward pressure persists. Without unexpected changes, a bearish approach to the glass market is recommended [12][13] Soda Ash Report - In November, the soda ash industry's overall operating rate was stable, with high supply pressure. Demand was weak, with downstream enterprises purchasing on - demand and having low acceptance of new quotes. Heavy soda demand was affected by the expected cold - repair of float glass production lines. Due to cost support and industry - wide losses, the decline in spot prices is limited. The upcoming 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project in December may pressure the market. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate weakly, and a cautious and bearish approach is recommended [56][57] 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the main contract closed at 1,010 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the basis was 60 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton). National float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). National float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [12] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 122 yuan/ton (- 10), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (- 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 181 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [20] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), and the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton) [26][29] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters (down 6.80% year - on - year), and in October, it was 61.4721 million square meters (down 19.60% year - on - year). In October, automobile production and sales were 3.3587 million and 3.3221 million vehicles respectively (up 12.09% and 8.82% year - on - year), and from January to October, cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles [33][36][39][42] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [46] Soda Ash Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda in Shahe was 1,132 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), the main contract closed at 1,162 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), and the basis was - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton). The weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons. The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days) [56] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (- 22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [64] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton) [71][74][77] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons [81][84][87] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days). Heavy soda factory inventory was 81.08 tons (down 3.60 tons), and light soda factory inventory was 72.78 tons (down 1.28 tons) [91][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, it is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not show significant improvement. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction remains bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, increasing the difficulty of long - short games and reducing the probability of a trending market. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the international raw sugar price rebounded. As of November 28, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.21 cents per pound, up 0.79 cents per pound from the previous month, a 5.48% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 month spread was 0.51 cents per pound, up 0.12 cents per pound from the previous month; the London white sugar 3 - 5 month spread was $5.2 per ton, up $2.8 per ton from the previous month; the raw - white spread of the March contract was $100 per ton, up $8 per ton from the previous month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined slightly in November. As of November 28, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, down 83 yuan per ton from the previous month, a 1.51% decrease. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 230 yuan per ton from the previous month; the basis was 50 yuan per ton, down 147 yuan per ton from the previous month; the 1 - 5 spread was 73 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous month; the out - of - quota spot import profit was 420 yuan per ton, down 439 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News**: As of December 4, 2025/26, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 21 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 175,500 tons. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. Sugar production was 983,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: As mentioned above, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts cover various time periods and contracts from 2021 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the spread trends in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - **Sugar Imports**: Charts display the monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 2025 [44]. - **National Sales**: Charts present the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [49]. - **National Industrial Inventory**: Charts show the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses [52]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - **Indian Production**: Charts present the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 [62]. - **Thai Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 [65]. - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: Charts display the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil from 2022 to 2025 and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68].

利多出尽，关注价格高位 波动风险 贵金属月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 ◆ 月度行情总结：本月贵金属，尤其是白银价格表现极为强势，11月5日至12月4日，COMEX黄金价格上涨7.57%至4237.9美元/盎司，沪金主力 合约价格上涨4.15%至953.4元/克。同期COMEX白银价格上涨22.67%至57.53美元/盎司，并在盘中达到59.65美元/盎司的历史新高。沪银主力 合约价格上涨19.54%至13424元/千克，并在盘中达到13866元/千克的历史新高。 ◆ 美联储人事提名是本月银价表现强势的最主要宏观驱动因素：11月，哈塞特明确表示"若被提名为美联储主席，将非常乐意进行任职"，而 随后特朗普表示他知道将会选择谁成为美联储主席，且很快将会宣布这一决定。而在十二月初，特朗普在内阁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The November PMI data shows that both supply and demand have improved, but the manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, and the service industry has declined significantly, indicating that domestic demand still needs to be boosted. The new policy - based financial tools have not fully offset the impact of the real estate downturn, and the current power of demand recovery is insufficient. The endogenous repair momentum of the economy still needs to be consolidated [11]. - In terms of exports, the October export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining while exports to non - US regions maintained resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals. Considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters of this year, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not great, and the policy may focus more on the connection with next year's policies, with less need for additional measures in the fourth quarter [11]. - Overseas, the US dollar liquidity was tight in November. Subsequently, observe the inflation and employment data for indications of a December interest rate cut [11]. - The bond market is currently in a multi - empty intertwined situation with weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, generally maintaining a volatile trend. In the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand and the expectation of the new fund fee regulations have triggered some redemptions in the bond market, but the overall risk is controllable. The rhythm should pay attention to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [14]. - In the medium and long term, the bond market should mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips, as the direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital - intensive industries are difficult to change, and there is still pressure on the economy to stabilize growth [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: The November PMI shows that the manufacturing and service industries are differentiated. The new policy - based financial tools have not fully offset the real estate downturn. The export to the US declined in October. The policy may focus on next - year's connection. Overseas, pay attention to the December interest rate cut signal [11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 6638 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [14]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield is 1.87%, up 2.87 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield is 2.28%, up 9.20 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.11%, up 9.00 BP week - on - week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by the combination of loose money and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: Presented the closing price, annualized premium/discount, and net basis trends of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][22][25][28]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, while the service industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In November, the production and new order indices of the manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month, indicating a moderate improvement in both supply and demand [42][47]. - **Prices**: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. The month - on - month data also showed certain changes. The PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed [50]. - **Exports**: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US declined significantly, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, showing a slight decline [56]. - **Investment and Real Estate**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, and the real estate market continued to adjust. In October, the price of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [59]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end declined, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [65]. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the quarterly annualized value of the US GDP was 3033.1 billion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI showed certain changes in year - on - year and month - on - month data [66]. - **US Durable Goods and Employment**: In September, the order amount of US durable goods was 313.7 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.26%. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 119,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [69]. - **US and EU PMI and GDP**: In November, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6. In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [72]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In November, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the service industry PMI was 53.1 [75]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In October, the M1 growth rate was 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%. The social financing increment was 815 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The social financing mainly came from the growth of government bonds, and the supporting role of government bonds in social financing may weaken in the future [80]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the resident and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the government bond growth rate was 19.20% [83]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In November, the MLF balance was 615 billion yuan, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [86]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Various market interest rates, including repurchase rates, domestic and US Treasury yields, have changed to different degrees, with some showing increases and others showing decreases [89]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Trends**: Presented the trends of domestic and foreign bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates (USD/RMB) [92][94][98].

Group 1: Report Core View - Since the fourth quarter, crude oil has entered a weak and volatile bottoming stage. With the increase in refinery operations, the inventory in the Cushing pricing area remains healthy. However, due to off - balance - sheet inventory not entering the pricing area on a large scale, there is no optimistic expectation for a significant short - term increase in oil prices. Oil prices are at an important turning point from pessimism to optimism in the medium - to - long - term cycle, mainly because the negative impact of the OPEC group will be gradually realized next year, and the peak of US production is emerging. The judgment of the peak of US production will determine the overall expectation change of oil prices. In 2026, there is no possibility of a significant increase in US production, and in the longer term, the decline of US production is almost a foregone conclusion [2] Group 2: Reasons for the Emerging Peak of US Production - From the perspective of US shale oil enterprise investment, it is impossible for the US to significantly increase production. The current CAPEX/D&A ratio is close to 1%, indicating that enterprises focus more on maintaining or optimizing asset efficiency rather than exploration and expansion [4] - High - frequency indicators, such as the number of active fracturing fleets, also show consistent results [7] Group 3: Prediction of US Production Decline - According to the prediction of the traditional energy production Hubbert model, if drilling activities remain sluggish or there is no leap - forward improvement in oil extraction technology (i.e., no qualitative change in extraction efficiency), US crude oil production will peak or slightly decline in 2026 and experience large - scale decline in 2027. This model is slightly more accurate in quantifying natural gas than crude oil [9] - The Hubbert model has accurately predicted the decline process of natural gas production in the Barnett and Fayetteville regions [12]