1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors presenting various characteristics. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are showing signs of support after a decline, while bond futures are favored due to a fall in risk appetite. In the agricultural products market, protein meal demand is good, and the US soybean market is strong, while sugar prices are in a range - bound oscillation. In the black metal market, steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation, and iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective. In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are under pressure due to the callback of interest - rate cut expectations, and copper is in short - term oscillation [18][22][25][28][58][68][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline shows initial signs of support. The market withstood pressure on Monday and traded sideways. Although facing negative news over the weekend, the index did not fall significantly due to the active performance of the lithium - battery industry chain. It is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. Trading strategies include going long at low levels, conducting IM/IC futures - spot arbitrage, and implementing bull spread options [18][20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: Risk appetite declined on Monday, and the bond market was favored. Bond futures closed higher across the board. In the short term, the bond market has both bullish and bearish factors, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach. Arbitrage strategies include holding (TL - 3T) positions and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - to - next - quarter spread [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The demand is good, and the US soybean market continues to be strong. Driven by positive soybean crushing reports, the US soybean market rose significantly. However, the overall international soybean supply is abundant, and the upside is limited. Domestic soybean meal has a large supply pressure and poor profit. It is recommended to sell wide - straddle options [25][26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting production, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are in a range - bound oscillation. Globally, major sugar - producing areas are increasing production. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - building and short - term oscillation. In the domestic market, the supply pressure is increasing, but there is some support for the price. It is recommended to operate within the range for unilateral trading and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [28][30][31][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The differentiation is obvious, and the oscillation continues. The Malaysian palm oil is entering the production - reduction season and will gradually reduce inventory, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oil market, and rapeseed oil in China is expected to continue reducing inventory. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for unilateral trading [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn futures rebounded, and the domestic northeast corn price is strong, while the north - China corn price is relatively stable. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, stay on the sidelines for the 01 - month corn, and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month corn. Also, shrink the spread between the 01 - month corn and starch [37][38][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally stable, and the spot price fluctuates slightly. The short - term pressure on hog slaughter has improved, but the overall inventory is still high. It is recommended to short - sell a small amount and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, but the futures market is in bottom - level oscillation. The domestic peanut price is rising, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The oil mill has not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the 05 - month peanut on dips, conduct 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the short - term production - capacity reduction is expected to be slow. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [45][46][49][50]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, but the market is in the off - season, and the sales space is squeezed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the strong fundamentals but large price fluctuations [51][52][54]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price is in oscillation. In November, new cotton is on the market in large quantities, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering the optimistic result of Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [55][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The night - session steel prices continued to oscillate, and the coal and coke prices fell significantly. The overall output of the five major steel products declined last week, and the inventory continued to decline. It is recommended to stay in the range - bound oscillation for unilateral trading and go long on the coil - to - rebar spread for arbitrage [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment has weakened, and some coal varieties have corrected from high levels. The coking - coal spot market has a fear of high prices, and the auction failure rate has increased. The fourth round of coke price increases has been implemented. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and consider going long on dips in the medium term [60][61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: Take a bearish approach. The iron - ore price fell slightly in the night session. The supply is at a high level in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly at a high level. It is recommended to short - sell for unilateral trading [63][64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation supported by costs. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable with a slight increase. The supply and demand are both weak, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to stay in the bottom - level oscillation for unilateral trading and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to correct, and precious metals are under pressure. The prices of London gold and silver fell, and the US dollar index rebounded. Due to the hawkish signals from the Fed and market risk - aversion, precious metals are under pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [68][69][70][71]. - **Copper**: Short - term oscillation. The copper price is under pressure due to the decreased probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has changed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies, with a long - term bullish view [71][72][73]. - **Alumina**: There is a production - reduction expectation overseas, and the spot price has stabilized. The short - term supply and demand are still in surplus, but the downstream is stocking up. Overseas, there is a supply gap and a production - reduction expectation. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term and may rebound after production reduction [74][75][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to this week's economic data and capital flow. The fundamentals are still strong. The overseas aluminum market is in short supply, and the domestic consumption has resilience. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [78][79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the market trading activity has decreased. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [80][81][83][84]. - **Zinc**: Wide - range oscillation. The domestic mine supply is tight, and some smelters are reducing production. The export enthusiasm is high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and go long on dips for unilateral trading, and hold the SHFE - LME arbitrage [85][87][88][89]. - **Lead**: Range - bound oscillation. The domestic lead - recycling enterprises are resuming production, and the downstream consumption is weakening. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions and pay attention to macro factors [90][91]. - **Nickel**: The cost is weakening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The supply exceeds demand, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options [92][93]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The market is weak, and the cost is declining. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [94][95][96]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating weakly. The demand has weakened in November, and some enterprises have stopped production. The price is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage is recommended [97]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillate until the platform company is established. The supply and demand both decreased in November, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot is firm, but the futures may fall if the platform company is not established. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and take profit on PS2512 and PS2601 positive arbitrage [98][99][100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary Based on Related Information Futures Prices - DCE01 price is 788.5 today, up 16.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 756.5, up 13.0; DCE09 is 732.0, up 10.5 [2]. - I01 - I05 spread is 32.0 today, up 3.0 from yesterday; I05 - I09 is 24.5, up 2.5; I09 - I01 is -56.5, down 5.5 [2]. Spot Prices and Related Data - Various iron ore spot prices are provided, such as PB powder (60.8%) at 778 (unchanged from yesterday), Newman powder at 779 (unchanged), etc [2]. - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines with a price of 840, and its 01 - 09 contract basis is 59, 88, 110 respectively [2]. - Spot variety spreads and import profits are also presented, e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder spread is 100 (unchanged), and the import profit of Carajás fines is 17 (unchanged) [2]. Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price is 103.6 (unchanged), 65% is 115.6 (unchanged), and 58% is 92.4 (down 0.2) [2]. - The SGX - DCE spreads are as follows: SGX main - DCE01 is 3.7, down 0.2; SGX main - DCE05 is 7.4, up 0.0; SGX main - DCE09 is 10.2, up 0.0 [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report, dated November 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - Methanol futures continue to decline. With increased international production, improved imports, and high domestic supply, combined with stable downstream demand and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the high - inventory situation and the approaching Iranian gas - restriction season, methanol is likely to continue its downward trend [2][4] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market - The futures price closed at 2029, down 52 or 2.5% [2] Spot Market - Production areas: Inner Mongolia South Line at 1960 yuan/ton, North Line at 1940 yuan/ton; Guanzhong at 1880 yuan/ton, Yulin at 1900 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 1980 yuan/ton, Henan at 2020 yuan/ton [2] - Consumption areas: Southern Shandong at 2100 yuan/ton, Northern Shandong at 2150 yuan/ton, Hebei at 2080 yuan/ton; Southwest: Sichuan - Chongqing at 1980 yuan/ton, Yunnan - Guizhou at 2040 yuan/ton [2] - Ports: Taicang at 2000 yuan/ton, Ningbo at 2000 yuan/ton, Guangzhou at 1990 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Important Information - In the week from November 8 - 14, 2025, international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,072,505 tons, an increase of 21,896 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 73.52%, up 1.50% [3] Group 6: Logic Analysis Supply - Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample supply [4] Import - US dollar prices are falling rapidly, the import premium is widening. Iranian plants are all operating normally, non - Iranian operation rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operation rate has returned to a high level. The price difference between China and Europe has decreased, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 690,000 tons in November, and non - Iranian supplies are abundant [4] Demand - The MTO plant operation rate has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others have sub - full loads [4] Inventory - Port arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; inland enterprise inventory has narrow fluctuations. However, with increased arrivals and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6] Group 8: Related Charts - Charts show historical data on methanol port inventory, enterprise inventory, order backlog, and various plant operation rates from 2021 - 2025 [7][9]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, November 17, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Object: Urea Market Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1662 (+13/+0.79%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with decent transactions. Prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1480 - 1520 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1450 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 17, the daily output was 204,400 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from the previous working day and 22,400 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on that day was 84.53%, a 4.00% increase from 80.53% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, market sentiment cooled, and the spot factory prices of urea in mainstream regions declined [5] - Regional Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory price led the increase before, now the market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, and it was expected that the factory price would decline. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the factory price followed the increase before and was expected to follow the decline. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to remain stable. The Northeast demand was stable [5] - Supply and Demand: The maintenance devices returned one after another, and the daily output increased to around 204,000 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the international price's influence on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China basically ended, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the compound fertilizer factory operating rate declined, and the demand showed a downward trend [5] - Inventory: Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to around 1.5 million tons, still at a high level [5] - Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited, the agricultural demand ended, the compound fertilizer had not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment was still low. The fourth - batch export quota was expected to be around 600,000 tons, which would boost the domestic market sentiment in the short term. The urea fundamentals were still loose, and it was expected to continue the downward trend [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short selling [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts include urea daily output, operating rate, coal - based and gas - based operating rates and outputs, enterprise and port inventories, compound fertilizer operating rate and factory inventory, melamine operating rate, and Northeast arrival volume from 2022 to 2025 [11][15]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Coal Daily - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] -从业资格号: F3068848 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is currently in a complex situation with supply tightening and demand showing mixed signals. In the short term, coal price increases are expected to slow down [4]. Summary by Section Market Review - On November 17, port market quotes remained stable. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Coal prices in different regions also varied [2]. Important News - On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the power production of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China accelerated. In October, the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions persists. As of November 14, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the overall domestic supply tightened. Imported coal prices rose despite weakening Chinese demand [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was average. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while procurement from Japan and South Korea was mediocre, and there was still no improvement in India's procurement demand. Most power plants were operating stably with a load of 60% - 70% and medium - to - high inventory levels. Most power plants preferred to fulfill long - term contracts, and only a small amount of rigid demand was purchasing at discounted prices [4]. - Market Outlook: With the arrival of a large - scale cooling wave, residential electricity and heating demand will rise, driving up power plant daily consumption. The railway transportation has returned to normal, with the average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line at 1.3 million tons and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau at around 30. As of November 17, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 23.9 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory depletion, while inland power plants had neutral inventory. In general, coal production in major producing areas is low, supply is tightening, power plant inventories are decreasing, and coal prices are expected to slow down in the short term [4]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing inventory and consumption data of different ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, and power plants in coastal 8 provinces and inland 17 provinces [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the US soybean monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped and then stabilized. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices also declined, with the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widening and the monthly spread of both showing a downward trend. The international soybean market is generally in a state of relatively loose supply, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure. The market's focus on soybean meal may be on the repair of crushing profit, and in the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and the supply side still faces pressure [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the release of the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped but then stabilized due to optimistic expectations for subsequent exports. The price of Brazilian soybeans rebounded slightly. The domestic soybean meal price declined due to the downward pressure from the cost side and the full reflection of previous good news. Rapeseed meal also declined, affected by the fall of soybean meal and its own loose supply - demand situation. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widened, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The monthly supply - demand report for US soybeans is generally positive, but the price increase space is limited. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future trends will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply has an increasing impact, with Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent crushing and export have increased. The overall international soybean market supply is relatively loose [4] - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and increased提货量. The inventory remains high. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the supply of rapeseed is low, and the supply pressure still exists [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation has recently stabilized. The end of the US government shutdown and the Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals to the market, causing the US soybean futures price to rise. The resumption of the soybean export qualifications of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - economic factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean monthly supply - demand report is positive, but the fundamental support is limited. Without significant improvement in exports, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and will generally fluctuate. The focus of the soybean meal market may be on the repair of crushing profit. In the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Soybean meal outperforms rapeseed meal, and the monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to decline [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to wait and see in the short term - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5566, up 1.38% with a decrease of 2684 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5792, up 0.77% with a decrease of 2748 in open interest. The fundamentals of both SF and SM show weak supply and demand, with cost increases driving short - term rebounds. They are expected to continue bottom - oscillating [6]. - For trading strategies, in the case of weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to be in bottom - oscillation. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5662, up 122 for the day and down 30 for the week, with a trading volume of 295372 (up 67133 for the day) and an open interest of 134545 (down 1747 for the day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5792, up 44 for the day and down 28 for the week, with a trading volume of 207209 (up 87774 for the day) and an open interest of 359008 (down 2748 for the day) [2]. Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5280, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5250, unchanged for the day and week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged for the day and up 30 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, up 100 for the day and down 80 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5600, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and week; in Guangxi, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week [2]. Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 382, down 122 for the day and up 10 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 412, down 122 for the day and up 30 for the week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 362, down 122 for the day and up 60 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 270, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; SF - SM spread was - 130, up 78 for the day and down 2 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 8 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 0, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week [2]. Raw Materials - Manganese ore in Tianjin: Australian lump was priced at 39.7, up 0.2 for the day and 0.7 for the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.3, unchanged for the day and week; Gabonese lump was 40.5, unchanged for the day and up 0.5 for the week [2]. - Lanthanum semi - coke: in Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged for the day and week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged for the day and week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged for the day and week [2]. Market Judgment Silicon Ferroalloy - On November 17, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate and output of sample enterprises on the supply side both decreased. Attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend will form when the price reaches a low level. On the demand side, the steel inventory de - stocking statistics at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, due to the dry season and the strong spot price of coal, the electricity prices of ferroalloys in each production area were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost increase drives a short - term rebound. It is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Manganese Silicon - On November 17, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin increased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 20 yuan/ton. The supply side also showed a slight decline. On the demand side, as mentioned above, the steel inventory data at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, the domestic port inventory was at a low level in the same period, the spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas manganese ore quotation also increased steadily. Coupled with a slight increase in the electricity fee in the production area, the cost side increased. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to mainly oscillate at the bottom [6]. Important Information - On November 17, the price of Australian lump Mn42.3% in Tianjin was 39.7 yuan/ton degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46.6% was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and the price of semi - carbonate Mn37% was 35 yuan/ton degree [8]. - A ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia, carried out maintenance on one 25500kva silicon ferroalloy furnace on the afternoon of November 16, reducing the daily output by about 70 tons [9]. Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [10][13][14][17][19][22].

研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，继上周五的跳水后，贵金属窄幅波动，伦敦金交投 于 4075 美元；伦敦银表现稍强，当前交投于 50.9 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金 最终收跌 3.09%，报 929.46 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收跌 4.08%，报 11933 元/ 千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅反弹，当前交投于 99.36 美元。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率横向盘整，当前交投于 4.127%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元低开低走，当前交投于 7.1064 附近。 【重要资讯】 3.美联储观察：美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 44.4%，维持利率不变的 概 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the live pig market is increasing, and the prices of both spot and futures are showing a downward trend. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate, but in the medium - to long - term, the downward pressure on prices is obvious due to high inventory and large - weight pig supply [3][5]. - The profitability of live pig breeding has declined, with both self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding showing losses that have widened compared to the previous period [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Spot Market - **Price**: Today, the live pig prices across the country continued to decline. The average price remained unchanged at 11.29 yuan/kg, but most regional prices decreased, with Shandong having the largest decline of 0.37 yuan/kg [3]. - **Supply**: The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased, and the enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell has also decreased. The number of second - fattening entrants has decreased recently. The current live pig出栏体重 has rebounded, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively large [3]. - **Profit**: The spot breeding profit (self - breeding and self - raising) was - 114.81 yuan/head, a decrease of 25.60 yuan/head from the previous period; the spot breeding profit (purchasing piglets) was - 205.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 30.09 yuan/head from the previous period [3]. - **Slaughter**: The slaughter volume was 166,125 heads, a decrease of 416 heads from the previous day [3]. Futures Market - **Price**: Futures prices also showed a downward trend. For example, LH01 decreased by 80 yuan to 11,695 yuan, and LH03 decreased by 95 yuan to 11,470 yuan [3]. - **Spread**: The spreads between some contracts have changed. For example, LH9 - 1 increased by 70 to 1950, and LH11 - 1 increased by 80 to 105 [3]. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. - For options, a strategy of selling wide - straddles is recommended [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector strengthened overall today. Steel spot transactions were generally fair, mainly driven by low - price speculation and futures - cash transactions. - Last week's data showed that blast furnaces continued to cut production, and overall steel output declined, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. Total steel inventories continued to decrease, but hot - rolled coils slightly increased in stock. The apparent demand for all steel products except cold - rolled coils declined, and the supply - demand structure suppressed steel prices. - Recently, the rapid reduction in hot metal production squeezed raw materials, causing the center of steel prices to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds slowed down, downstream payment collection was difficult, and the number of projects decreased year - on - year, creating upward pressure. - However, the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has officially started, making it difficult for coking coal supply to increase significantly, which provides cost support for steel. - In the short term, steel prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation, and more factors are needed to break the situation. Hot - rolled coils generally perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3190 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3220 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils at 3290 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coils at 3210 yuan (+20). [4] Market Research and Judgment Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound and slightly upward trend. [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] Important Information - In September 2025, China's engineering machinery import and export trade volume reached 5.505 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.1%. Among them, the import volume was 234 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%, and the export volume was 5.271 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.6%. - In October 2025, China produced 72 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.3226 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.2%; 65.55 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; and 118.64 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.8271 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%. From January to October, the cumulative production of crude steel was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.6904 million tons; pig iron was 711 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons; and steel was 1.218 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0052 million tons. [9][10] Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts related to steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits of different steel products and contracts, such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, from 2021 to 2025. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [11][13][14]