大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8356 | 8 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8576 | | | | 8686 | 8496 | 330 | -10 | 220 | 0 | 140 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9422 | 38 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9392 | | | | 9472 | 9572 | -30 | 0 | ...

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report", dated September 2, 2025 [1][2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 7313.88, down 2.50%. The trading volume was 35,044 lots, and the trading value was 59.85 billion yuan. The main contract IM2509 closed at 7251.40, down 1.85%, with a trading volume of 218,061 lots and a trading value of 31.68 billion yuan. The open interest was 193,312 lots, an increase of 12,533 lots [3] 2.2 Summary - The main contract of IM fell 1.81%, closing at 7251.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 337,746 lots, an increase of 85,941 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 401,271 lots, an increase of 26,043 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 62.48 points, an increase of 58.07 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -17.47% [5] 2.3 Basis and Cost - The annualized roll - over cost and dividend impact are presented in the report, showing the relationship between different contracts [10][11] 2.4 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 are detailed, including the trading volume, long - position, and short - position changes of top members [15][18][22] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4490.45, down 0.74%. The main contract IF2509 closed at 4481.20, down 0.69%, with a trading volume of 122,523 lots and a trading value of 16.51 billion yuan. The open interest was 146,527 lots, an increase of 8,725 lots [23] 3.2 Summary - The main contract of IF fell 0.69%, closing at 4481.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 195,366 lots, an increase of 51,069 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 298,335 lots, an increase of 21,717 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 9.25 points, an increase of 3.86 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -4.19% [23][24] 3.3 Basis and Cost - Similar to IM, the annualized roll - over cost and dividend impact of IF are also provided [28] 3.4 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 are shown, including the trading volume, long - position, and short - position changes of top members [33][36][37] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 6961.69, down 2.09%. The main contract IC2509 closed at 6896.20, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 105,870 lots and a trading value of 14.66 billion yuan. The open interest was 124,446 lots, an increase of 11,825 lots [42] 4.2 Summary - The main contract of IC fell 1.83%, closing at 6896.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 172,836 lots, an increase of 46,175 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 254,784 lots, an increase of 18,794 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 65.49 points, an increase of 30 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -19.26% [42][43] 3.3 Basis and Cost - The annualized roll - over cost and dividend impact of IC are presented [49] 3.4 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 are detailed, including the trading volume, long - position, and short - position changes of top members [53][56][57] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 2992.88, up 0.39%. The main contract IH2509 closed at 2992.80, up 0.35%, with a trading volume of 53,059 lots and a trading value of 4.75 billion yuan. The open interest was 66,245 lots, an increase of 9,442 lots [61] 5.2 Summary - The main contract of IH rose 0.28%, closing at 2991.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 80,614 lots, an increase of 26,017 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 109,749 lots, an increase of 12,783 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 1.68 points, an increase of 1.52 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -0.45% [61][62] 5.3 Basis and Cost - The annualized roll - over cost and dividend impact of IH are provided [65] 5.4 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in IH2509 and IH2512 are shown, including the trading volume, long - position, and short - position changes of top members [70][73][75]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, September 2, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [3] - Contact Information: 021 - 65789108, wuxiaorong_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price 3551, up 11 (0.31%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price 3543, up 21 (0.60%) [2] - BU2512: Price 3492, up 26 (0.75%) [2] - SC2509: Price 490.4, up 6.9 (1.43%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price 68.47, up 1.2 (1.80%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 10.6 million lots, down 0.4 million lots (-3.42%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 15.3 million lots, down 1.2 million lots (-7.36%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 70300 tons, down 1000 tons (-1.40%) [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: 51.00, down 5.00 (-8.93%) [2] - BU10 - 11: 8.00, down 10.00 (-55.56%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 127.00, up 9.00 (7.63%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 37.00, down 21.00 (-36.21%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: -13.00, down 11.00 (-750.00%) [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3540, up 30.00 (0.85%) [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3580, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - South China Market Price: 3530, up 10.00 (0.28%) [2] - Shandong Gasoline: 7525, up 8.00 (0.11%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: 6441, up 52.00 (0.81%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: 2900, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -6.0, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - Exchange Rate Intermediate Price: 7.1089, up 0.00 (0.02%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: -110.58, down 28.97 (-35.50%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 286.88, down 32.19 (-10.09%) [2] - BU - SC Crack Spread: -444.52, down 31.79 (-7.70%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 897.69, down 58.29 (-6.10%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 628.40, down 19.35 (-2.99%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - Shandong Market: Mainstream transaction prices rose 5 to 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton. Higher crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment. At the beginning of the month, traders were not eager to sell, reducing low - price resources. Some asphalt prices were raised by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Terminal demand was stable, and refinery inventory was controllable, supporting prices. However, some refineries planned to resume production and supply was sufficient, limiting price increases [5] - Yangtze River Delta Market: Mainstream transaction prices remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Xinhai resumed asphalt production, increasing supply slightly. Main refineries' shipping was good, and inventory was at a medium - low level, keeping prices firm. Higher futures prices reduced low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and prices rose to 3570 - 3600 yuan/ton. Social inventory was being consumed, supporting prices in the short term [5] - South China Market: Mainstream transaction prices remained stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Higher crude oil and futures prices improved market sentiment. With better weather, some projects supported demand. Some traders slightly raised prices, and Foshan warehouse prices rose to 3530 - 3540 yuan/ton. In the future, demand may gradually release, but overall demand was lower than previous years, and social inventory needed to be consumed, so prices may remain stable in the short term [6] Market Outlook - This Monday, domestic asphalt plant operation rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% from last Thursday, refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50%, and social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46%. Oil prices were short - term bullish, providing cost support. Supply decreased slightly in early September, and demand was stable, leading to inventory reduction. The South China spot market strengthened, driving the near - month contract to rebound. Asphalt prices will be volatile in the short term, with lower volatility than crude oil. The main BU contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3600 [7] Group 4: Related Charts - Chart 1: BU Main Contract Closing Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [10] - Chart 2: BU Main Contract Positions (Unit: million lots) [10] - Chart 3: East China Asphalt Market Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [12] - Chart 4: Shandong Asphalt Market Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [12] - Chart 5: Shandong Refinery Gasoline Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [15] - Chart 9: Shandong Refinery Diesel Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [15] - Data Sources: Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply and inventory remain high in the near term, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. The low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium continues to decline, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First part: Related Data - On September 2, 2025, the FU main contract price was 2847, up 15 from the previous day; the LU main contract price was 3559, up 85 from the previous day. The FU main contract position was 193,000 lots, an increase of 136,000 lots; the LU main contract position was 79,000 lots, an increase of 8,000 lots. The FU warehouse receipts were 119,580 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LU warehouse receipts were 35,110 tons, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The FU10 - 1 spread was 5, down 3 from the previous day; the LU11 - 12 spread was 22, up 8 from the previous day. The LU - FU main contract spread was 712, up 70 from the previous day [3]. Second part: Market Research and Judgment - **Important Information**: Vietnam's Nghi Son tendered to sell 5,000 tons of fuel oil for loading between September 7 - 9. Nigeria's Dangote refinery exported its first batch of gasoline cargo to the US [6]. - **Market Analysis**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, supply pressure decreased in the third quarter. 17% of Russian refinery primary processing capacity was affected by bombings, with an estimated impact on crude oil processing capacity of about 1.2 million barrels per day. Mexican high - sulfur exports declined, and Middle - Eastern high - sulfur exports remained low. Meanwhile, the seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually decreasing, but feedstock demand is still supported. The high - sulfur bunker fuel loading volume in Singapore in July reached the highest level since IMO2020. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the spot premium continued to decline, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers. The logistics of low - sulfur heavy feedstock are expected to be redirected to the Pan - Singapore area. The operation of Nigeria's RFCC unit remains unstable, and the Al - Zour low - sulfur exports have rebounded [7]. - **Other Information**: The Singapore paper - cargo market saw the high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread change from 1.5 to 1.0 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread change from 1.8 to 1.5 USD/ton [8]. Third part: Related Attachments - Multiple graphs are presented, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO spreads, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Steel 9 Monthly Report" [6][15][25] - Report date: August 29, 2025 [6][15][25] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The cost is dragged down by raw materials, and steel prices fluctuate within a range [1] Group 3: Fundamental Situation Price and Basis - Figures show the seasonal charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar spot price, Shanghai 4.75mm hot-rolled coil spot price, rebar 10 contract basis in Shanghai, and hot-rolled coil 10 contract basis in Shanghai [8][11] Contract Spreads - Figures present the 10 - 01 contract spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot-rolled coil and rebar [15][19] Profits - Figures display the 10 contract rebar and hot-rolled coil disk profits [22] Production - Figures show the monthly pig iron and crude steel production by the National Bureau of Statistics, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [26][31] Imports - Figures present the import quantities of steel and billet [32] Ratios - Figures show the scrap addition ratio and the proportion of five major steel products to hot metal [36] Demand and Inventory - Figures display the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major varieties, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and the billet inventory in Tangshan area [41][43][49][56] Global Production and Exports - Figures show the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production, the monthly export volumes of steel and billet, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot-rolled coils [56][58][62] Group 4: Market Outlook for September Profits - Figures show the cash profits of East China electric arc furnaces (flat electricity) and North China rebar long-process [66] Production - Figures present the weekly production of rebar and hot-rolled coil [69] Financial Data - Figures show the new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment [73][79] Real Estate Data - Figures display various real estate data such as the monthly year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area, new housing construction area, housing completion area, and real estate development funds [81][89] Construction and Infrastructure Data - Figures show the national and East China building materials transactions, local government special bond issuance, infrastructure loan demand index, and infrastructure investment data [93][102][99] Industrial Data - Figures present various industrial data such as PMI, industrial enterprise profits, industrial added value, and production and inventory data of industrial products [111][113][115] Manufacturing Product Data - Figures show the production data of automobiles, civilian steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners [122][130][132]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple supply this year may be similar to that of early - maturing apples, with little change in production but low excellent fruit rate, especially in terms of fruit diameter. Apple prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend at the beginning of the listing and weaken later when a large number of apples are on the market. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term but may fall as Fuji apples are widely listed [5][33] - In the short term, it is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Foreword Summary 1.1 Market Review - In August, the main - continuous price of apple futures rose from around 7,700 - 7,800 yuan/ton to around 8,400 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The increase was due to concerns about the production and excellent fruit rate of new - season apples, especially the poor excellent fruit rate of early - maturing Gala apples and the high price of high - quality apples. The exchange's stricter delivery rules also supported the futures price [4][10] 1.2 Market Outlook - Apple prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend at the beginning of the listing and weaken later. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term due to the small quantity and high price of high - quality early - maturing Gala apples and stricter delivery rules, but may fall as Fuji apples are widely listed [5][33] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In August, with the large - scale listing of summer seasonal fruits, the demand for cold - storage apples was relatively weak, and the prices of cold - storage apples in Shandong and Shaanxi declined. The main - continuous price of apple futures rose due to concerns about new - season apple production and excellent fruit rate and stricter delivery rules [10] 2.2 Weak Demand for Old - Season Apples - August is the off - season for apple demand. Cold - storage apple demand was poor, the出库 speed was slow, and prices were weak. As of August 29, 2025, the national main - producing area cold - storage apple inventory was 33.97 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. In September, with the large - scale listing of new - season early - maturing apples, cold - storage apple demand is expected to further weaken, but the inventory will remain low [13][15] 2.3 Possible Problems with the Excellent Fruit Rate of New - Season Apples - In Shaanxi, some areas may have smaller fruit diameters, affecting the excellent fruit rate. In Shandong, the apple size in some areas is currently smaller than in previous years, and the fruit diameter in September needs further observation. In Gansu, the fruit diameter of new - season late - maturing Fuji is normal, and the overall fruit surface is good [18][19] 2.4 Apple Demand in the Off - Season - August is the traditional off - season for cold - storage apple demand. This year, the demand is weaker than in previous years. The cold - storage apple price and gross profit have declined. The daily average arrival volume at Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets has increased seasonally. In September, the demand for cold - storage apples will remain weak, while the demand for new - season early - maturing apples will gradually improve [20][22] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In July, the export volume increased slightly. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume decreased by 6% year - on - year. In August and September, the export volume is expected to increase seasonally. Apple imports: In July, the import volume decreased slightly. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume increased by 29.7% year - on - year. In August and September, the import volume is expected to continue to decrease [26] 2.6 Substitute Situation - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits decreased seasonally in August and is expected to continue to decline in September. The average wholesale price of watermelons is at a low level in July and August and is expected to rise in September. In September, with the listing of autumn fruits, fruit prices are expected to further decline [29] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Old - season apple inventory is low, and new - season early - maturing apples have quality problems such as poor coloring, small size, and greening. Demand: Old - season apples are in the off - season, while high - quality early - maturing Gala apples have good demand. The impact of holidays this year is weak. Apple prices may be slightly stronger at the beginning of the listing and weaken later. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term and fall later [32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply increase is putting pressure on prices, and the valuation is neutral with some support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - Multiple figures show the historical trends of iron alloy prices, including the main contract trends of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, spot market prices in different regions, and the price difference between the two main contracts [8][10][13] - Figures display the production - related data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, such as production enterprise operating rates and monthly production volumes in China [26][29][30] - Data on the demand - side of iron alloys are presented, including daily and seasonal production of crude steel, daily production of hot metal, and blast furnace capacity utilization [33][34][37] - Inventory - related information is shown, such as alloy factory inventories, average available days of steel mill inventories, and warehouse receipt situations for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese [40][42][43] - The cost - related factors of iron alloy production are presented, including prices of raw materials like semi - coke small materials, chemical coke, electricity, and manganese ore, as well as production costs and profits [53][57][63] 2.2 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - There is no specific content about future outlook and strategy recommendation other than the title in the given text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short - term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4][6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the near future [12]. - The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, as the factors driving price increases are weakening [17]. - Silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are expected to have bottom - oscillating trends recently [22]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Related Information**: As of August 26, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 59.22%, up 0.43 percentage points week - on - week. The national new local government bond issuance in the first seven months was 3315.9 billion yuan [2]. - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar was 3290 yuan, Beijing rebar was 3230 yuan, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (+20), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector declined in the night session. Steel production resumed, with rebar increasing and hot - rolled coil slightly decreasing. Steel exports were resilient, and downstream construction site funds improved marginally. As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease, putting short - term pressure on steel prices. After August, the coal daily consumption will decline, and the blast furnace may resume production rapidly, potentially worsening the steel fundamentals [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; Option: Wait and see [7][8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 55 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average iron - water output was 240.13 tons, down 0.62 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated widely without a clear direction. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. The eighth round of coke price increase was not responded to by steel mills. The coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, and the iron - water output will decline, with little change in the overall supply - demand relationship of coking coal [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Futures - cash: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The PB powder spot price at Qingdao Port was 781 (+13), and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract was 33 [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price fell 0.7% in the night session. The shipments of mainstream mines increased year - on - year in the past month, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August were at a high level year - on - year. The growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down, suppressing the terminal steel demand [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was clearly given for iron ore in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [18]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 28th, the semi - carbonate Mn36% at Tianjin Port was quoted at 34 yuan/ton degree, and the Gabon block Mn46% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton degree. Comilog's October 2025 quotation for Gabon blocks to China was 4.27 US dollars/ton degree, unchanged from last month [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable to weak on the 28th. The supply growth slowed down, and the demand was supported by the increase in steel production and apparent consumption. For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon spot price decreased. The supply growth also slowed down, and the alloy demand was stable [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on the long - futures short - cash spread; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [23].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Apple Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 6.86, up 0.03 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8290, up 138 from the previous trading day - AP05: 8215, up 125 from the previous trading day - AP10: 8414, up 136 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4] - Customs Data: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 53,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.76% [6] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia for 80 first and second - grade apples was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] Trading Logic - The current market inventory is low, and the market demand is in the off - season. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. The early - maturing apples have a low excellent fruit rate, and the price of high - quality apples is high while that of low - quality apples is low. It is expected that the price of new - season Fuji apples will be high at the initial stage of listing, and the short - term futures market will fluctuate slightly stronger [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Since the excellent fruit rate of new - season apples may be poor, it is recommended to build long positions on dips and conduct low - buying and high - selling rolling operations [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main basis, etc. [15][17][23][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in the international soybean market has improved significantly. The pressure on the supply side has gradually eased, and the carry - over stock provides obvious support at the current price. The domestic soybean market has a high arrival volume and large crushing volume, with obvious inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international sugar price trend. In the oil market, the price of palm oil is supported by the firm price in Indonesia, and the domestic vegetable oil market has different fundamentals. The corn market has different trends at home and abroad, and the pig market supply pressure is expected to improve. The peanut market has a weak downstream consumption, and the egg market has obvious supply - side pressure. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger short - term trend, and the cotton - yarn market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][12][19][26][33][39][49][57][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.09% to 1064.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.78% to 291.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: Brazil's soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were adjusted; Argentina's soybean planting area from March to May 2026 is expected to decline; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and soybean meal inventory increased [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, and the domestic market has inventory accumulation pressure [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Long soy and rapeseed meal on dips for far - month contracts; expand the MRM05 spread on dips; buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, and London white sugar price rose [8]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports increased slightly in the first four weeks of August; domestic processed sugar quotes were stable with general transactions; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the international market [12]. - **Position Recommendations**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the international market with a small - range oscillating trend; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15]. Oilseeds - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices changed [17]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry hopes to cancel tax credit restrictions; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, and domestic vegetable oil has different fundamentals [19]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying on dips for short - term oil price corrections; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [20][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [24]. - **Important Information**: South Africa's corn harvest will increase; domestic port corn inventory and shipment volume decreased; corn starch inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn has room for rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on CBOT December corn on dips; go long on 01 corn on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices rebounded in some regions; piglet and sow prices fell; the national average pork price decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure is expected to improve, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Buy far - month contracts on dips; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36]. Peanut - **Important Information**: The national average peanut price fell; peanut production and oil mill demand are limited; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [37][38]. - **Logic Analysis**: New - season peanuts are expected to have sufficient supply, and the market is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase [39][41]. - **Trading Strategies**: 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in a bottom - oscillating phase, and try short - term long on 05 peanut contracts; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [42][43][44]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in main production and sales areas changed; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales volume decreased; inventory increased; egg farming profit improved [46][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [50][51][52]. Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; import and export volume changed; early - maturing apple varieties were on the market, and prices were polarized; apple prices in Shandong were stable, and storage profit decreased [54][55][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market trend is expected to be slightly stronger [57]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips for new - season apples and operate with low - buying and high - selling; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [60][61][62]. Cotton - Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton prices fell [64]. - **Important Information**: US cotton growing conditions improved; India's cotton planting area growth slowed; Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was slower than last year [65][66]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger [67]. - **Trading Strategies**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [68].