苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 单边：中长期原油过剩预期难以证伪，成本支撑不足，供需格局偏弱，纯苯价格仍有向下压力。思路上维持逢高做空。 套利：观望 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析-纯苯】 【交易策略】 期权：观望 GALAXY FUTURES 2 纯苯：上游方面，美国原油库存连续三周累库，地缘冲突影响反复，油价缺乏确定性的上行驱动，中长期原油过剩的预期难以证伪；纯苯&苯 乙烯成本支撑不足。节后中石化纯苯挂牌价较节前继续下调，本周纯苯华东港口库存下降，下旬纯苯抵港货源不多，后半周受英国制裁消息影 响华东现货市场成交气氛有所改善， 山东市场低价买气增加，成交有一定放量，加氢苯市场粗苯成交价格大幅回落带动加氢苯价格下调，山 东苯乙烯主流工厂检修，纯苯供应宽松，山东对华东市场纯苯贴水扩大，套利窗口打开。 节后京博石化裂解装置计划外停车，涉及纯苯年产能7万吨，本周广州石化10万吨纯苯计划内检修，计划检修至12月上旬，裕龙石化2 ...

避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 文 字 色 基 础 色 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 ◼【综合分析】 风险事件：上周，近期集中爆发的多个市场风险事件发生了一些边际变化，令贵金属从高位回落。这些变化包括中美之间的贸易关系趋于缓和 ，特朗普称将和习主席见面、并在26年初访问中国；另外，俄乌冲突一度出现泽连斯基称乌克兰已准备好结束俄乌冲突。与特朗普举行会谈 期间，双方同意尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判。由于领土问题一直是俄乌谈判间的核心矛盾之一，所以"尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判" 意味着针对长达三年半的俄乌冲突问题乌克兰方面做出了一定妥协，因此在消息传出的当天晚上，贵金属出现了罕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of nickel prices is driven by the general rise in commodities. The overall nickel market shows an oversupply situation in the current and next years. The nickel price is expected to continue to move within a range, and the stainless - steel price has limited upward space due to weak demand expectations [4][5][6]. - The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with the US electrification process slowing down and European subsidies stimulating sales. The ternary material in the nickel sulfate market is growing, but the precursor supply is tight [61][66][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1价差追踪与库存 - Global nickel inventory is at a high level. The global visible inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons remaining basically flat this week, SHFE inventory at 36,000 tons with an increase in domestic delivery volume, and SMM's six - location social inventory at 48,800 tons with a slight increase [14]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is at a low level and remains flat [19]. 3.2基本面分析 3.2.1镍 - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 3 million tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in October will remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic refined nickel supply from January to August 2025 was 3 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [27]. - **Demand**: The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 2.16 million tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly month - on - month in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly relying on the stainless - steel PMI remaining at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [30]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and the demand is weak, limiting the upward space. The nickel ore price is stable, providing cost support. The LME nickel inventory increased slightly this week, remaining above 250,000 tons. The macro sentiment remains neutral, and the power to drive nickel out of the shock range is insufficient. The nickel price will continue to move within the range. For single - side trading, it is expected to be in a wide - range shock; for options, sell the wide - straddle option combination [6]. 3.2.2不锈钢 - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore port inventory has peaked and declined due to the start of the rainy season in the Philippines. The Indonesian domestic trade premium remains stable, and the second - round benchmark price in October was slightly raised, with the full price remaining firm [32]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increases, and the price is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September shows an increasing trend, and the high - nickel iron price is under pressure due to factors such as market supply and demand [33]. - **Chromium Series**: The chromium ore price has been weakening for two consecutive weeks. The long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased by 200 yuan month - on - month [39]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel remains high, while the market price is relatively low, resulting in cost inversion [44]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the production in both countries increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate, providing support for stainless - steel demand. The production of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see. For single - side trading, sell on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure at the 13,000 level [9][10]. 3.2.3新能源汽车 - **Domestic Market**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The production of power cells follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.6% to 861.04 GWh from January to September, and a month - on - month increase of 9.1% in October [61]. - **International Market**: CleanTechnica statistics show that the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles from January to August 2025 increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to August 2025 increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, while the cumulative sales volume in the US from January to August 2025 increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles, stimulating sales growth this year. China's cumulative new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [66]. 3.2.4硫酸镍 - **Market**: The cumulative production of nickel sulfate in China from January to September decreased by 13.6% year - on - year to 246,000 tons. The cumulative production of ternary precursors from January to September decreased by 13% year - on - year to 540,000 tons, while the cumulative production of ternary cathode materials from January to September increased by 12% year - on - year to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices [68]. - **Raw Materials**: The production of Indonesian MHP from January to September increased by 53% year - on - year to 325,000 tons, while the production of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to September decreased by 34% year - on - year to 138,000 tons. This year, the sulfur price has risen significantly, increasing the cost of hydrometallurgy, and the MHP cost has increased, with the price remaining firm [72]. 3.2.5纯镍 - The large increase in pure nickel imports leads to an obvious domestic surplus situation [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The reports focus on the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) futures. The market shows fluctuations in prices and trading volumes, affected by various factors such as industry policies, economic data, and geopolitical events. The trading strategies suggest different positions (long, short, or hold) and stop - loss levels based on the analysis of these factors [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Prices show fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price increases or decreases. Trading volumes are affected by market sentiment, with downstream demand varying from cautious to slightly improved. For example, on 25 - 10 - 27, L2601 contract rose 36 points or 0.52% to 7005 points, and LLDPE market prices had small fluctuations [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Similar to L, PP prices also fluctuate. Some regions see price increases, while downstream demand remains relatively weak in general. On 25 - 10 - 27, PP2601 contract rose 29 points or 0.44% to 6691 points, and the PP market continued a small upward trend [1]. Important News - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 7 departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 [1]. - **Economic and Geopolitical Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions in Venezuela have an impact on the market [10][13]. Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Some factors are positive for the polyolefin market, such as the increase in domestic pipeline transportation investment, the increase in US manufacturing PMI, and the increase in the ratio of Baltic dry bulk freight index to Baltic crude oil freight index [17][24]. - **Negative Factors**: Other factors are negative, including the decrease in global stock market value, the decrease in domestic real - estate market indicators, and the decrease in some economic data [43][28]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, such as holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss levels, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2]. - **Arbitrage**: Some reports suggest holding or taking a wait - and - see approach for L - PP spreads [2]. - **Options**: Most reports recommend a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

锂价冲高或有回落 涨势暂未结束 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 GALAXY FUTURES 1 碳酸锂后市行情展望 交易逻辑 行情展望及策略推荐： GALAXY FUTURES 2 需求端：在新车型上市和重卡换电的 带动下， 10月动力电池排产环比增速超预期，但老车型库存仍高，动力电池结构 性增长。储能因产能瓶颈，虽终端订单火爆，但交付周期延长，排产被平滑，10月环比增长不足1%。现货市场表现远 远落后于期货，采购积极性被高价抑制，仓单下降速度也显著放缓。 供应端：锂矿短期收紧，加工费降至18500元/吨附近，加工利润缩水抑制代工厂的产能利用率，月底澳矿到港可能有 一定补充。10月国内碳酸锂产能利用率已达75%以上，继续增长空间有限，产量增速放缓。进口量因智利8-9月发运 偏低也难有大幅增量，供应环比走平。 库存：本周广期所仓单环比减少1987吨至28699吨，仓单去化速度放缓。SMM周度库存环比减少2292吨，连续三周 减量在2000吨以上。 资金面：本次上涨前碳酸锂 ...

橡胶板块2025年10月第4周报 橡胶：原油带动板块回暖，轮胎产销确有好转 ◼【综合分析】 估值方面：本周天然橡胶市场利多因素集聚，胶价强势上涨。青岛市场20号泰混周均价14730元/吨，环比上涨144元/吨（+0.99%）。天 然橡胶STR20MIX周均价14730元/吨，环比上涨144元/吨（+0.99%）。顺丁橡胶价格表现偏强震荡。山东市场顺丁橡胶价格区间在 10750-11350元/吨。中石化化销BR9000出厂价格11200元/吨，中石油主要销售公司BR9000出厂价格11200-11300元/吨。。 供应方面：本周国内天然橡胶产区整体供应呈现增加态势，但受台风扰动，增幅有限。中国天然橡胶产量3.95万吨，环比增加0.05万吨（ +1.28%）。进口量12.2万吨，环比增加0.2万吨（+1.67%）。顺丁橡胶方面，齐鲁石化、扬子石化顺丁装置检修影响显现，产量及产能利 用率下降。本周顺丁橡胶产量3.03万吨，环比下降0.21万吨（-6.48%）。产能利用率73.45%，环比下降1.37个百分点。 潘盛杰 大宗商品研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 需求方面：轮胎行业需求整体 ...

电解铝 ：宏观基本面共振带动铝价走强 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 宏观：（1）俄乌冲突的化解情况有所反复：俄罗斯外交部副部长里亚布科夫10月21日称，俄美双方尚未就俄外长拉夫罗夫与美国国务卿鲁比奥的会晤达成一致。在美俄预备 会议陷入僵局之际，欧洲多国领导人在10月21日发表的联合声明中表态支持特朗普的停火提议。美国财政部当地时间22日宣布，将对俄罗斯两大石油公司实施制裁。当地时 间23日欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯宣布，欧盟正式通过对俄罗斯第19轮制裁，本轮对俄制裁主要涉及能源、金融等领域。（2）中美关税谈判：上周2025年10月10 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，计划从11月1日起对所有中国输美商品在现有税率基础上额外加征100%关税；本周北京时间10月18日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话；经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于10月24日至27日率 团赴马来西亚与美方举行经贸磋商。双方将按照今年以来两国元 ...

终端需求低位，矿价偏空运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 3 全球铁矿发运量维持高位水平 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周矿价窄幅震荡，市场预期仍偏弱。基本面方面，全球铁矿发运维持高位，供应增量得到延续；非主流矿发运持续高水 平，四季度发运预计延续贡献增量，但增幅可能有所放缓。需求端，9月份国内经济数据进一步走弱，7-9月份基建投资增速同比在- 5%左右，9月份制造业同比延续低位运行，对国内终端用钢需求形成较大压制。海外需求方面，1-9月份海外铁元素消费量同比增加 2.5%，其中印度粗钢产量同比增加10.5%，海外粗钢需求量仍维持在偏高水平。 整体来看，当前需求端呈现国内持续走弱，海外用钢维持高增长，铁矿石估值在黑色系中维持在高位，但随着国 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support, but demand pressure persists. The market needs more driving factors to break the current situation. Suggestions include maintaining a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trades, holding long positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: Total steel production is starting to decline. The daily average of hot - metal from 247 blast furnaces has dropped below 240 million tons, and the overall steel production has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel is 51 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking. Although demand has improved with the cooling weather, downstream construction sites face difficulties in payment collection, and the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, though it has improved. The automobile industry shows strong growth but may face a decline in demand later, and the production of white goods in October is expected to decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel products are generally in the process of destocking. Rebar has seen a faster destocking rate, and hot - rolled coil has also started to destock [4]. - **Outlook**: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support due to factors such as rising coal prices, but demand pressure persists. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm general coil) in Shanghai is 3310 yuan/ton (+40), and the summary price of rebar (HRB400: 20mm) in Shanghai is 3240 yuan/ton (-). The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3200 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of rebar in Beijing is 3170 yuan/ton (+10) [11]. - **Profit**: Short - process steelmaking profits have increased, but there is a slight reduction in production. Long - process steelmaking is still in a loss state, but the loss has been slightly reduced. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace is - 231.69 yuan (+15.3), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 67 yuan (+15) [4][26]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real - Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing also declined [28]. - **Industrial Production Data**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the production of some industrial products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., showed different trends of increase or decrease [28]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the growth rates of real - estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment all declined [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 million tons (-1.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 33% (-0.2). The small - sample output of rebar is 207.07 million tons (+5.91), and the small - sample output of hot - rolled coil is 322.46 million tons (+0.62) [4][57]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 226.01 million tons (+8.58), and the small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 326.73 million tons (+10.39). The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking, but the demand pressure is still high [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory has decreased by 18.59 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 0.93 million tons. The overall steel inventory has decreased by 27.41 million tons [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping long - term contract season has gradually started. With the improvement of long - term contract cargo volume of shipping companies, the spot freight rate stopped falling and rebounded in October. The freight rate is expected to continue to rise from November to December [3][4][153]. - The supply and demand situation shows that the cargo volume in October is in the off - season, and the shipping volume is expected to improve from November to December. The supply side has seen additional blank sailings by mainstream shipping companies [4][153]. - Sino - US ship sanctions have begun to levy port fees, which are expected to increase costs and may cause short - term supply chain disruptions [4][154]. - The progress of the cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation sentiment has eased. Attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation progress [4][154]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the container shipping market was still in the off - season. Affected by factors such as the long - term contract season, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East, and the price adjustment of some shipping companies, the EC disk showed an overall volatile trend. By the end of October, with the improvement of long - term contract filling, the freight rate stabilized and rebounded, and the EC disk gradually strengthened [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Shipping Company Cargo Collection and Freight Rate - The long - term contract season has arrived, and the spot freight rate has gradually stabilized and rebounded. However, the difference in cargo collection among shipping companies has led to a spread of 500 - 600 US dollars/FEU between mainstream shipping companies. The OA alliance has a good cargo collection situation, and the spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise [18]. - In October, the average value of SCFI decreased compared with September and last October. As of October 17, the SCFI comprehensive freight rate index increased compared with the previous period but decreased compared with the same period last year [19]. - The trans - Atlantic route capacity has decreased. In October, the average daily container ship capacity deployment in Europe decreased by 0.21% compared with the previous month, and the trans - Atlantic decreased by 3.14% [38]. - In October, the container ship rental market was still hot, and the average daily rent continued to rise. The average daily profit of container ships in October was 46,521 US dollars/day, a slight increase from September [42]. 3.2.2 Supply and Idle Capacity - In September, the global container new - ship delivery volume decreased by 23.8% month - on - month and 22.6% year - on - year. The new order volume increased by 31.9% month - on - month but decreased by 16% year - on - year. It is expected that there will be a new ship delivery peak starting from 2026 [47]. - In October, the global container idle capacity increased significantly compared with the previous month. As of October 19, 2025, the global container idle capacity was 815,000 TEU, an increase of 57.7% compared with the same period last month [65]. 3.2.3 Route and Port Conditions - As of October 21, 2025, there were 267 container ships on the European and Mediterranean routes detouring, accounting for about 70%. The cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and it will take time for shipping companies to resume navigation [80]. - In October, there were frequent strikes in Nordic ports, which affected port operations and caused serious ship congestion. As of October 20, the global container port congestion index increased slightly compared with September [88][89]. - China has taken measures to levy special port fees on US ships, and some ships are trying to avoid the fees. The port fees on the Sino - US route will increase, and the single - box cost of container ships will also increase [121][124]. 3.2.4 Trade and Economic Situation - In September, China's exports showed strong resilience, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. China actively diversified its markets, and the export of mechanical and electrical products maintained an advantage [126][127]. - In September, the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, showing a weak manufacturing situation. The economic trends of Germany and France were different [144]. - In August 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe increased year - on - year, while that to North America decreased. The shipping volume from Asia to the world and the global container shipping volume also showed different trends [146]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The freight rate is expected to continue to rise from November to December. The supply side has additional blank sailings, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm [153][154]. - Strategy recommendations include continuing to hold long positions in EC2512 and considering taking profits at high levels for the 2 - 4 positive spread [7][154].