地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03151476 投资咨询资格证号：Z0023508 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 交易、套利数据追踪 7 第三章 基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 铂钯：地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周市场主要叙事由美联储人事风波让位于地缘政治与关税危机，经济数据的影响弱化。周初特朗普称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问 ，引发市场对于后续降息预期走弱，贵金属及相应风险资产价格回落；但后续特朗普关税工具威胁欧洲以获取格陵兰岛的问题上摇摆不定，成 为市场关注的重点，即便周中公布的美国经济数据如GDP有较强韧性，但总体来看美元指数疲弱，欧洲长期资本对美元资产的信心正因地缘 政治与财政风险而动摇，可能预示着全球资本流动格局的重塑，贵金属价格在美元指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in nickel prices is led by long - term expectations. Although the price has received regulatory attention after consecutive sharp increases and may experience corrections approaching the Spring Festival, the upward trend is not over, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the supply - demand is tight with cost support, and a low - buying strategy is also advised after price corrections [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel**: Global visible inventory reached 352,000 tons, increasing by 780 tons this week, with domestic social inventory up 2,784 tons and LME inventory down 2,044 tons. Jinchuan nickel is under tight supply, and its premium remains around 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: Social inventory is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are expected to increase in the future. Supply - side raw material shortages, especially for hot - rolled products, may lead to a downward revision of cold - rolled production schedules. Demand - side pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, but due to strong bullish sentiment, spot prices are rising with hoarding behavior [10][19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, refined nickel production increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. Net imports were 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. Total supply was 450,000 tons, a 45% year - on - year increase. In January, high prices are expected to further boost production, and net imports are also expected to increase [27]. - **Demand**: From January to December, pure nickel consumption increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating demand is in the off - season, and overall consumption growth has slowed [30]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Market sentiment for overseas nickel mines is positive, and prices are rising. The Indonesian government is still processing the approval of mining company work plans and budgets [31][32]. - **NPI**: NPI production is recovering, with prices rising and profit margins improving. Some production lines are switching from NPI to high - grade nickel ice due to falling NPI prices [33][34]. - **Chromium - Based Materials**: Chromium - based prices are rising. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on chromium exports starting from January 1, 2026, leading to a continuous rebound in chromium ore prices [38][44]. - **Cost Estimation**: Estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 14,400 yuan/ton, and integrated cost is about 13,900 yuan/ton [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, the combined stainless steel crude steel production of China and Indonesia is expected to be 45.06 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In January, due to shortages of hot - rolled products, production schedules may be revised downward. China's stainless steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year to 1.519 million tons, exports remained flat at 5.031 million tons, and net exports increased by 11% to 3.512 million tons [56]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding production has a high growth rate, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, growth in other terminal sectors is not optimistic, especially in the real estate market [57][58]. 3.2.4 New Energy Automobiles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a 29% and 28.2% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 47.9%. In January 2026, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles decreased. Power battery production followed the trend of vehicle sales, and in January, the impact of export tax rebate reduction may mitigate the decline in battery production [63]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a 103% year - on - year increase [68]. 3.2.5 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. Ternary precursor production increased by 6% to 903,000 tons, and ternary cathode material production increased by 19% to 686,000 tons. In January, demand slowed down, but prices followed the upward trend of refined nickel [70]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% to 444,000 tons, and high - grade nickel ice production decreased by 18% to 224,000 tons. Rising sulfur prices increased MHP production costs, but strong nickel sulfate demand boosted intermediate product prices and production [76]. 3.3 Trading Logic and Strategies - **Nickel**: For single - side trading, adopt a low - buying strategy after price corrections and stabilizations. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: For single - side trading, buy at low prices after corrections and stabilizations. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [10].

Group 1 - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly: Partially Take Profits and Pay Attention to the Trend of Risk Assets [1] - Researcher: Shen Chen CFA [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3053225 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0015885 [1] Group 2 - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The economic data released this week showed that the GDP deflator repaired faster, and the production side had sufficient resilience, but the improvement on the domestic demand side was limited, with investment and consumption both weaker than expected. The economic data was not necessarily negative for the bond market. After the central bank made it clear that there was still some room for overall easing this year and the yields at the medium - short end had fallen first, more allocation funds entered the market this week, driving the yields at the long end to start a compensatory decline. The current attitude of the central bank towards liquidity injection was warm, and the risks at the medium - short end were relatively controllable, but before the expectation of a policy rate cut significantly increased, the odds of going long at the medium - short end were still limited. The yield of 30Y treasury bonds had fallen by nearly 9bp from the previous high. Considering factors such as the improvement of the domestic "re - inflation" expectation and the concern about the supply of government bonds not being completely eliminated, the stage when the yield at the ultra - long end declined most smoothly might have passed. In the short term, the performance of the ultra - long end would largely depend on the trend of risk assets. [5] - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: Partially take profits on the previous long positions of TL contracts at high prices [6] - Arbitrage: Moderately pay attention to the transaction of shorting the basis of the 30Y active bonds [6] Group 3: First Part - Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Economic Data - The Ministry of Finance Deputy Minister Liao Min stated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy would continue to be implemented, and the specific details of subsequent fiscal policies to expand domestic demand were worth close attention [8] - The economic data for December last year and the fourth quarter showed differentiation. The fourth - quarter GDP deflator was - 0.65%, still in the negative range but up 0.44 percentage points from the third quarter. In December, supported by external demand, industrial production had sufficient resilience, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in the fourth quarter rose 0.3 percentage points to 74.9%. However, as a nominal indicator, the repair momentum on the domestic demand side was still weak. In December, the growth rate of domestic fixed - asset investment continued to decline, with the year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing and broad infrastructure investment at - 10.5% and - 16.0% respectively, down 6.1 and 4.1 percentage points from the previous month. The improvement in consumer goods retail was also limited, with the year - on - year growth rate of durable goods consumption by units above the designated size at - 4.3%, also continuing the negative growth trend [13][14] Central Bank's Liquidity Support - The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity was clear. On Friday, it over - renewed the due MLF by 70 billion yuan this month. Together with the outright reverse - repurchase operation, it had net injected 1 trillion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity in a single month, and smooth cross - month of funds was still expected [16] Market Capital Situation - This week, the overall market capital situation was still balanced, and the disturbances caused by the tax period and the increased supply of local bonds were limited. As of Friday's close, DR001 and DR007 were at 1.3983% and 1.4935% respectively. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 6.71bp and 4.25bp respectively. In terms of long - term funds, the issuance rate of 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit by joint - stock banks fluctuated and declined this week, and as of Friday, it had fallen to around 1.61%. Next week, as it was the cross - month period and the issuance and payment of government bonds would further increase (more than 515 billion yuan), it was expected that the market capital situation would tighten [23] Futures Bond Valuation - Calculated according to the ChinaBond valuation and the futures settlement price, as of Friday's close, the IRRs of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.4223%, 1.5724%, 1.4680%, and 0.9765% respectively. Statically, the IRR of the TL main contract was relatively low, and the valuations of the main contracts for other tenors were relatively reasonable [29] Ultra - long Bond Spread - Last week, it was suggested that investors could use a moderate reverse thinking for potential negative factors such as the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds and not be overly pessimistic. After the bond market sentiment eased, as of Friday, the spread between the CTD bond of the TL main contract and the active bond of the same tenor (including tax) fell to 5.9bp, down 1.35bp from last Friday. However, affected by factors such as different trading times, the valuation of the TL contract had relatively large fluctuations compared with the spot bonds recently, and the basis had not significantly converged according to the ChinaBond valuation and the futures settlement price [33] Group 4: Second Part - Related Data Tracking Treasury Bond Futures Contract Spreads - It includes the spreads between TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [37] Trading Volume and Open Interest - It shows the trading volume and open - interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [40] Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - It involves the treasury bond spot yield curve (ChinaBond), treasury bond term spreads (ChinaBond), spreads between treasury bonds and local bonds (ChinaBond), and spreads between 10Y treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds (ChinaBond) [43] US Treasury Bond Yields and Exchange Rates - It includes the 10 - year US treasury bond yield, the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [46]

Report Title - Short-term oils and fats lack obvious drivers, and wide-range fluctuations are likely to continue [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term oils and fats are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations without a clear trend [26] - Domestic soybean supply is currently sufficient, and soybean crushing is expected to pick up in the next two weeks. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de-stocking slightly, but overall inventory is not likely to be tight. There is no prominent contradiction in soybean oil at present [5][24] - Sino-Canadian rapeseed trade is expected to resume, and rapeseed supply is expected to increase. However, it will take time for Canadian rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue de-stocking, and the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [5][24] - High-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil will reduce production and de-stock in January, and it is expected to continue to do so in the later stage, but the de-stocking speed is slow, and high inventory may continue [5][24] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of January decreased by 16.06% compared with the same period last month. ITS shows that the export volume in the same period was 950,000 tons, a 11.4% increase [5][8] - As of January 21, 2026, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean has completed 96.2% of the planned area, a 2.3 percentage point increase from last week [5][11] - This week, oils and fats showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the rise of crude oil due to the cold wave in the United States, and good expectations for U.S. biodiesel [5] International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: High-frequency data shows a 16.06% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January compared with the same period last month, and a 11.4% increase in exports. The inventory in January may drop to around 2.8 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. UOB predicts a 13%-17% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January, similar to SPPOMA. The weather forecast shows increased rainfall in the southern Malay Peninsula in the next two weeks [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The government revoked the operating licenses of 28 companies and will raise the palm oil LEVY tax from March 1, both of which will boost palm oil prices [8] - **South American Soybeans**: As of January 17, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 98.6%, and the harvest progress was 2.3%. Some areas may be affected by continuous rainfall. As of January 21, Argentina's sowing progress reached 96.2%, but the northern agricultural region was affected by continuous rainfall [11] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.37% increase from last week, at a slightly high level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are rumors of near-month purchases. The basis is fluctuating weakly. Short-term palm oil lacks obvious drivers, and high inventory is expected to persist, but factors such as the low inventory in Indonesia, the upcoming tax increase, and accelerated exports will provide support. It is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 6.03% decrease from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable and slightly weak. The spot trading volume has improved, and the inventory is expected to continue to de-stock slightly. Short-term domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, so it is expected to maintain a bottom-range fluctuation [19] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 last week, and the inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000-ton increase, at a neutral level, and the inventory is continuously de-stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -$1,300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed, and short-term supply of tradable rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening trend in rapeseed oil, but considering the time for rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports and the good biodiesel expectations, the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [22] Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short-term oils and fats may continue wide-range fluctuations without a trend [26] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [26] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [26] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [31][32][33][35] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [36][37][38][39] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Covers NOPA U.S. soybean crushing volume, NOPA U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory [41][43][45][47] - **Indian Oils and Fats**: Covers monthly data on consumption, imports, port inventory, and imports of different types of oils [49][50][51][52][54][56][58][59] Domestic Market - **Import Profits**: Includes domestic rapeseed oil and 24-degree palm oil import profits [62][63][64][66] - **Supply and Demand of Different Oils**: Covers data on supply and demand, including crushing volume, consumption, trading volume, and inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [66][68][70] - **Spot Basis**: Includes the spot basis of first-grade soybean oil, 24-degree palm oil, and domestic triple-rapeseed oil [73] - **Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on the commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oils and fats [77][78][79][80][82][83][84]

Report Title - "Stock Index Futures Weekly Report: IC and IM Accelerate Upward" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market enthusiasm has risen again after a week of cooling of thematic hotspots, and the upward trend is expected to continue due to high trading volume and sufficient funds. The differentiation of stock indexes may further strengthen investors' expectations, leading funds to flow into non-300 component stocks. It is still optimistic about the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes. In the futures market, the large premium of the near - month contracts of IC and IM indicates investors' optimism about the future market, but also increases the cost of going long in futures [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekend News** - US President Trump will visit China in April, and China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that stable Sino - US relations are in the common interests of the two peoples and the international community [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China issued relevant regulations on the performance comparison benchmarks of public - offering securities investment funds, focusing on four aspects: accurate portrayal, full - process supervision, linking with compensation, and information transparency [4]. - The news that the CSRC will tighten the listing threshold for mainland enterprises in Hong Kong is false, and the current overseas listing policy remains unchanged [4]. - As of the end of 2025, the existing scale of the banking wealth - management market was 33.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. In 2025, the overall income of wealth - management products was stable, with a cumulative income of 730.3 billion yuan for investors, a year - on - year increase of 2.87% [4]. - **Comprehensive Analysis and Strategy Recommendations** - **Logic**: After a week of cooling, thematic hotspots regained momentum in the second half of the week. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes continued to reach new highs, and the market trading volume remained high, with the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan again on Friday [5]. - **Outlook**: During the concentrated disclosure period of annual report forecasts, the market treats performance growth positively. The differentiation of stock indexes may strengthen investors' expectations, and the rotation of various industry and theme ETFs will continue to drive the rotation of sectors. It is still optimistic about the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes [5]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral strategy is to go long on IC and IM at low prices; arbitrage strategy is the spot - futures arbitrage of "IM long 2609 + short ETF"; option strategy is the bull spread [5][6]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **A - share Index Performance** - This week, the performance of stock indexes was differentiated. The large - cap indexes were under obvious pressure, while the small - and medium - cap indexes accelerated their rise. The CSI 300 fell 0.62%, the SSE 50 fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 rose 4.34%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.89% [17]. - **A - share Trading Volume** - This week, the A - share market trading volume first declined and then rose, reaching 3 trillion yuan again on Friday. The total weekly trading volume was 13.86 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 19% compared with last week. The trading volume ratios of the main indexes remained stable, with a slight increase in the trading volume ratios of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes [22]. - **A - share Individual Stock Rise - Fall Situation** - The market was in a good state, with more rising stocks than falling stocks. The proportion of rising stocks in the second half of the week was continuously higher than 50% and kept rising. The proportion of limit - down stocks continued to decline, reaching a recent low on Friday, while the proportion of limit - up stocks continued to rise, exceeding 2% again [29]. - **A - share Margin Trading Situation** - This week, the margin trading balance in the A - share market remained at a high level, exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan again on Thursday, accounting for 2.6% of the A - share floating market value. After two consecutive days of net selling at the beginning of the week, there was net buying again. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the A - share trading volume continued to fall below 10% [34]. - **A - share Industry Performance** - **Industry Weekly Rise - Fall**: The rise - fall ranges of different industries varied, with some industries rising significantly and some falling [37]. - **Industry Heat**: The total heat change rates and total heats of different industries showed different trends [39]. - **Industry Capital Flow**: The weekly net capital inflows and weekly net margin trading inflows of different industries also showed different situations [42]. - **Stock Index Futures Data** - **Basis Change**: The basis of different stock index futures contracts showed different changes [48]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Change**: The trading volumes and open interests of different stock index futures contracts showed different trends [51][52][53][54]. - **Spot - Futures Trading Volume Comparison**: The trading volumes of the main contracts and all contracts of different stock index futures were compared with the trading volumes of the corresponding spot indexes [57][58][59]. - **Main Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of different stock index futures showed different trends [62].

终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 * [16] A. A. K. K. * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格高位小幅回落。当前市场主要由宏观和资金主导，同时本周宏观情绪有所降温，矿价估值中性偏高。基本面 方面，供应端持续贡献较大增量，供应宽松格局得到延续，进口铁矿港口库存持续较快增加；需求端，12月份地产新开工环比好转， 但仍处于底部运行；而基建投资和制造业投资增速环比下降幅度进一步扩大，国内终端用钢需求难以看到显著好转。从交易逻辑来看， 上半年可能出现需求不及预期，2025年下半年以来国内用钢需求持续回落，在2025上半年高基数背景下2026年上半年用钢需求预计 贡献减量，国内铁矿石基本面的弱化有望延续，铁矿高估值预计难以持续。 整体来看，国内用钢需求较快走弱有望主导中期矿价，当前铁矿自身基本面出现较大转变，随着矿价高位回落，短期宏观和资金扰动 会增肌，矿价预计震荡运行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG prices first declined and then rose. In the first half - week, the decline was due to the fading of geopolitical sentiment and weak international oil prices. In the second half - week, the prices were driven up by the sharp rebound of oil and natural gas prices, the reduction of warrant pressure, and the strengthening of downstream propylene and polypropylene prices. The international propane supply remains tight, and the CP price fluctuates upward. Looking ahead, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and prices will tend to consolidate or slightly correct [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral view is wide - range oscillation; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between LPG and crude oil; for options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: LPG prices had a volatile week. The supply from refineries increased slightly this period, but the arrivals were still low. The combustion demand was supported, but the chemical demand weakened significantly, showing the negative feedback of high - priced propane. The market is expected to be range - bound or slightly decline [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [5]. - Arbitrage: Short the spread between LPG and crude oil [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - The crude oil market is in a state of mixed long - and - short factors and sideways consolidation. The cold wave in Europe and the US has a short - term positive impact on the market through the demand for heating fuel. Geopolitical risks have eased, and EIA data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories. The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 but emphasized a significant supply surplus in the first quarter [8][10]. 3.2.2 Supply - The utilization rate of domestic major refineries increased by 1.54% to 78.78%, reaching a high level for the same period, mainly due to the increased load of Yunnan Petrochemical and the start - up of Shanghai Petrochemical. The utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.27% to 60.75%, at a historically low level, due to insufficient crude oil reserves in some refineries. Overall, the supply increased this week, and it may continue to rise next week [13]. 3.2.3 Demand - The chemical demand weakened significantly. The PDH operating rate dropped by 10.82% to 62.25%, at a low historical level due to the shutdown of some devices. The MTBE operating rate increased slightly by 0.44% to 68.01%. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil decreased by 0.96 percentage points. The negative feedback of high - priced overseas propane on the demand side became evident [16]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventories decreased due to a slight reduction in arrivals and weakened chemical demand. Factory inventories increased because of heavy snowfall and increased supply, which led to poor sales in some areas. The inventory trends of tertiary stations in different regions were divergent [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data - Relevant price data includes Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG futures prices, showing their trends over different time periods [24]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - It shows the spread data between different LPG products, such as the spread between South China civil LPG, East China civil LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and the futures contract, as well as the seasonal trends of LPG basis [27]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data - It presents the import profit of LPG based on CP and FEI, as well as the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene [30]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data - It shows the import profit of LPG based on FOB, CFR, and the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene, as well as the profit of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [33]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - It includes the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG commercial volume, crude oil processing volume, and the maintenance schedules of domestic major refineries and PDH devices [36][38][40]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of LPG ports, the capacity utilization rate of tertiary stations in different regions, and the port capacity ratio [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The valuation of ferroalloys is low and there is a need for repair. In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [1][5] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to shrink, the demand has support, and the cost has an upward adjustment expectation. For silicomanganese, the supply is stable, the demand has support, and the cost of manganese ore and electricity price has support [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: The start - up rate and output of sample enterprises continue to decline. Due to the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of future supply contraction. Steel production is stable, and future hot metal production is expected to rise slightly, supporting raw material demand. Some regions' electricity prices have an upward adjustment expectation. Short - term supply - demand improves marginally, and the valuation is not high, so it is expected to be volatile and bullish this week [5] - **Silicomanganese**: The start - up rate and output have a slight rebound, but the profit is not good, and the upward trend is difficult to form. There are some new production capacities put into operation, and the supply is generally stable. Similar to ferrosilicon, the demand has support, the port manganese ore inventory is at a low level, the spot price is firm, and the overseas mining company's February manganese ore US dollar quotation continues to rise slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish this week [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, and the alloy valuation is not high. It is expected to be volatile and bullish this week. Hold the previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6] - **Options**: Sell put options on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the report 3. Weekly Data Tracking Supply - demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types is 1.87 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 11.69 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons [11] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 29.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the weekly supply of ferrosilicon is 9.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 36.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%; the weekly supply of silicomanganese (99%) is 19.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 16th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 6.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 37.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [13] Spot Price - Basis - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferroalloy Enterprise Production Situation - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Steel Mill Production Situation - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Silicomanganese Cost - Profit - The production cost and profit of silicomanganese vary by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5868 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 188 yuan/ton [35] Cost Manganese Ore Price - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferrosilicon Cost - Profit - The production cost and profit of ferrosilicon vary by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5452 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 152 yuan/ton [45] Cost Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Hebei Representative Steel Mill's Bidding Price for Double Silicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Monthly Output of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferrosilicon Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided

地缘波折再起，金银共创新高 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 227/82/4 地缘波折再起，金银共创新高 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周金银市场以地缘风险为主线进行交易，核心焦点在于格陵兰岛争端、美欧贸易关系。 周初，特朗普政府威胁对欧洲八国加征关税以施压格陵兰岛问题，并提及对法国葡萄酒征收200%关税，引发市场对美欧贸易战升级以及极端情 况下发生武力冲突的担忧，避险情绪急剧升温，美国出现股债汇三杀的局面，欧洲股市也受到负向冲击。为应对美国的施压，欧洲丹麦、瑞典等 养老基金宣布抛售美债资产，被市场解读为"美元资产武器化"，且波兰央行宣布购金150吨，进一步强化了去美元化叙事，叠加日 ...

橡胶板块2026年1月第4周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：供应矛盾未超预期，合胶跟随板块走强 ◼【综合分析】 供应方面：天然橡胶呈现国内外供应双降态势。国内云南、海南产区已全面停割，海外泰国北部、东北部及越南产区接近割胶季尾声，仅泰 国南部正值旺产季。顺丁橡胶供应小幅收缩，国内高顺顺丁装置平均开工负荷75.75%，较上周走低0.15个百分点；茂名石化、独山子石化 延续停车，周度检修损失量约2730吨。 需求方面：下游轮胎企业刚需支撑总体平稳。天然橡胶方面，轮胎企业开工波动不大，周内胶价走低刺激下游逢低采购。顺丁橡胶方面，山 东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷62.70%，虽较上周微降0.14个百分点，但较去年同期大幅走高20.70个百分点，显示同比需求明显改善。 库存方面：天然橡胶库存持续累积，青岛地区总库存57.91万吨，较上期增加1.52万吨（涨幅2.7%），其中保税区库存10.49万吨，一般贸 易库存47.42万吨，均呈增长态势。顺丁橡胶库存同样走高，本周增幅达6.83%，受市场价格下行、贸易商开单积极性不佳及套利盘积极出 货但终端接盘有限等因素影响，胶厂及市场 ...