【生猪周报】供应压力好转 价格明显上涨 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 本周全国各地生猪价格整体呈现偏强运行态势，主要受到近期出栏压力减少带来的影响。由于前期规模企业出栏完成情况 良好，近期出栏动力有所下降，出栏体重也较前期有所回落，市场预估出栏计划整体有所下调。普通养殖户同样有一定压 栏表现，出栏量仍然维持低位。二次育肥相对比较谨慎，存栏量维持高位，入场动力也有所下降。总体市场供应方面相对 偏紧。需求方面来看，近期生猪屠宰量有所下降，冻品库存呈现增加态势，表观需求整体有所下降，价格上涨对于整体需 求可能存在一定影响。当前生猪现货方面可能存在阶段性供应收紧情况，但由于整体存栏量仍将维持高位，并且价格上涨 后出栏量整体有所增加，预计现货方面上涨空间有限。 期货方面来看，本周盘面呈现快速上涨态势，主要原因仍然在于盘面价格偏低以及对于后续供应收紧的考虑。但从整体供 需状况来看，价格上涨空间或有限，本次价格修复性上涨后，预计整体以高位震荡运行为主。 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 第二章 内容提纲 3 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 2025/7/7 | | --- | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7894 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8114 | | | 8094 | | 8044 | 220 | | 0 | 200 | 0 | 150 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8466 | (6) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8536 | | | | 8626 | 8706 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of live pigs decreased today. After the previous continuous price increase, market supply increased, and the price showed a downward trend. Although the recent supply pressure has decreased, as the price rises, the supply has improved, and the upward momentum of the price is limited. Secondary fattening is currently on the sidelines, and there is still supply pressure in the future, so it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend today. After the previous rapid increase in the futures price, market optimism decreased, and the futures price showed a phased decline. As the subsequent spot price is expected to weaken, the futures price is also expected to be affected. In terms of the price spread between futures contracts, the market lacks obvious driving factors in the short - term and is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - **Spot Price**: The average price of live pigs today was 14.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.63 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions all decreased, with the largest decrease in Hunan (-0.99 yuan/kg) and the smallest in Heilongjiang (-0.07 yuan/kg) [4]. - **Futures Price**: Among the futures contracts, LH07 increased by 220 yuan to 14070 yuan, LH03 increased by 20 yuan to 12995 yuan, and LH05 increased by 55 yuan to 13185 yuan. LH09 decreased by 60 yuan to 14245 yuan, and LH11 decreased by 35 yuan to 13685 yuan [4]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: The price of piglets was 431 yuan, and the price of sows was 1621 yuan, both remaining unchanged from last week [4]. - **Breeding Profit**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan, an increase of 69.48 yuan; the profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan, an increase of 105.45 yuan [4]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume was 130828 heads, a decrease of 585 heads from yesterday [4]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between different - sized pigs changed. For example, the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.03 yuan, while the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.09 yuan. Among the futures contracts, the spread of LH7 - 9 increased by 280 yuan, and the spread of LH9 - 1 decreased by 75 yuan [4]. 3.2 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: It is mainly expected to operate in a high - level volatile manner. - **Arbitrage**: Long LH09 and short LH01. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is at the bottom and may be influenced by weather factors. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the short - term domestic corn spot is relatively stable, but the upside space is limited. The 09 corn futures will be in a weak and volatile state, and the basis will strengthen. In the long - term, it will be affected by policies and remain volatile. [5][7][9] - The price of corn starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory has slightly increased this week. In the short - term, the downside space of the 09 starch futures is limited. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state, and the profit will be repaired. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.66% to 1.16%. The trading volume of C2505 increased by 453.10%, and the trading volume of C2509 increased by 42.58%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), the closing prices also decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.87% to 1.38%. The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 82.99%, and the trading volume of CS2509 increased by 37.58%. [3] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in northern ports and Northeast China declined. The spot price of corn in North China also decreased, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn narrowed. The price of wheat in North China was weak, and wheat continued to substitute for corn. The spot price of corn starch was stable. [3][5][7] - **Spread**: For corn inter - period spreads, such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, there were corresponding changes. The same was true for corn starch inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price of corn in North China and Northeast China declined, and the domestic breeding demand is weak. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable, but the upside space is limited. [5][7] - **Corn Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased. The inventory of corn starch increased slightly this week. The price of corn starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. In the short - term, the downside space of the 09 starch futures is limited. [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 09 corn and 09 starch futures will be in a narrow - range oscillation. [10] - **Arbitrage**: Enterprises with spot goods can short the 09 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when it is low and conduct oscillating operations. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot goods can sell corn call options and hold them. [13] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of various prices and spreads of corn and corn starch, such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of corn starch 09 contract. [15][17][21]

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | PX社会库存目前偏低，供应端偏紧，本周中长流程制利润走缩，亚洲 PX 开工率回落，三季度海外日本Eneos条 | | | | 35万6月下意外停车，预计一个月，韩国Hanwha，泰国石油也有检修计划， 下游PTA三房巷320万吨装置预计8月 | | | | 投产，新凤鸣300万吨装置投产在10月，直接拉动PX需求，OPEC在8月考虑增产55万桶/日，PX预计短期跟随成 | 单边：短期震荡整理 | | PX&P | 本端。 | 套利：观望 | | TA | 近期PTA基差大幅下滑，周内山东威联化学250万吨装置检修，逸盛新材料360万吨装置负荷恢复，逸盛海南200万 | 期权：观望 | | | 吨PTA装置因故降负至5成附近，恒力2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - **Related News**: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - **Related News**: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - **Related News**: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - **Related News**: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - **Related News**: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - **Related News**: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - **Related News**: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - **Related News**: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: BR

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - High sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant spot supplies in the near - term, while low sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile trend [1] - For trading strategies, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trades, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances as well as the digestion of near - term high sulfur spot [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - High sulfur: The number of buyers in the high sulfur spot window has increased, and low - price transactions have hit the high sulfur spot premium, which has fallen below zero. High inventories in Singapore and increased near - term domestic spot arrivals have pressured prices. Russian supply is expected to recover in July, but there are still risks due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. High sulfur seasonal power generation demand remains supportive in the third quarter, with strong demand in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. There are expectations of an increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction, which may boost feed demand [4] - Low sulfur: The low sulfur fuel oil spot premium is volatile. Supply is continuously increasing, and downstream demand lacks specific drivers. Supply from Nigeria, South Sudan, and Al - Zour refinery is increasing, and China's low sulfur production is expected to grow in June, with sufficient supply and stable demand [4] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see, and pay attention to the digestion of near - term high sulfur spot [5] - Options: No specific view [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Supply - related - Russia: Off - line refining capacity is expected to decrease in July. Exports of high sulfur fuel oil have started to recover in the past two weeks. The EU plans to intensify sanctions, including lowering the oil price cap [7] - Mexico: The supply of high sulfur fuel oil has fallen to the level before the Olmeca refinery's production. The Olmeca refinery's operation is improving, and other refineries' processing volumes have changed. High sulfur exports in June were at a low level but showed a rebound in the first week of July [10] - Middle East: The sentiment of the Iran - Israel conflict has subsided, but the US sanctions on Iran continue. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply. High sulfur exports in June were at a low level [15] Demand - related - High sulfur power generation: Egypt's high sulfur fuel oil procurement is strong due to summer power generation demand. South Asia's power generation demand is near the end, and the Middle East's power generation demand is expected to remain strong in July [16] - China's demand: The expected increase in the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio may support feed demand. China's high sulfur fuel oil imports rebounded in June [22] - High sulfur marine fuel: Demand is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships with desulfurization towers [23] Low sulfur fuel oil - South Sudan: The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is steadily recovering, with multiple export tenders [26] - Al - Zour refinery: Low - sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and supply to the pan - Singapore area has increased [27] - Nigeria: Near - term low - sulfur supply is abundant, mainly flowing to Singapore. The Dangote refinery's FCC gasoline unit is still unstable [30] - China: The domestic low - sulfur market has stable production, and the third - batch export quota is expected to be issued soon, with sufficient quotas [38] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: Data on the prices of Brent, HSFO380, LSFO, etc., and their spreads are presented [40] - High sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - term spreads, and spot premiums are provided [47] - Low sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - variety spreads, and spot premiums are provided [53] - Gasoline - fuel oil ratio: Data on the equivalent - calorific - value prices of different fuels are presented [60] - Cross - regional freight: Data on freight rates from different regions are provided [62] - Singapore filling spreads: Data on high - sulfur and low - sulfur filling spreads in Singapore are presented [65] - Fuel oil inventory: Data on fuel oil inventories in Singapore, ARA, US, etc., and the total inventory of five countries are provided [68] - Inventory structure in different regions: Data on gasoline, diesel, and refined oil inventories in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are provided [70][72] - Terminal sales: Singapore's marine fuel sales data for May are announced, including high - sulfur and low - sulfur sales volumes and their proportions [74]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of SP futures contract rules expands the scope of hedging, attracting more funds [59] - The growth rate of social inventory has accelerated, which is relatively unfavorable for all non - standard spot goods including broadleaf pulp [59] - The broadleaf pulp has stabilized, and the spread between broadleaf and softwood pulp has strengthened [59] - The domestic papermaking industry mainly uses more broadleaf pulp, but overall it still faces great challenges [59] - The domestic manufacturing data is better than that of the United States, which is relatively positive for SP, but there is more downside space for pulp prices [59] - The pulp market fundamentals are weak [59] Summary by Directory Coniferous Supply Impact on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, consumption increased month - on - month to 269,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times, with a 4.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] - As of May 2025, domestic coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons, and the total long - fiber imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year in the past 6 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] Broadleaf Supply Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous Spread - As of May 2025, broadleaf wood chip imports increased month - on - month to 1.289 million tons (equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp), broadleaf pulp imports increased month - on - month to 1.309 million tons; coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] - As of May 2025, the use of broadleaf pulp in domestic papermaking decreased month - on - month to 2.224 million tons, and the use of coniferous pulp decreased for three consecutive months to 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 9 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] International Pulp and Paper Trade Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion, and in April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [24] - In May 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP [24] Port Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - As of July 4, 2025, the total pulp inventory in major ports was 2.392 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, which is bearish for SP [30] Port Inventory Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous - As of July 4, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to the warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months to 8.97 times, with a 60.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 6 months, which is relatively bearish for broadleaf pulp [35] Manufacturing PMI Impact - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months to 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing [36] - As of June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month to 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [37] Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - In April 2025, domestic papermaking electricity consumption decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 months, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [46] - In April 2025, domestic papermaking finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months to 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bearish for SP [46] US Policy and International Oil Price Impact on SP Unilateral - As of early July, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month to 536.4 points, with an 84.5% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bullish for SP [52] - As of early July, the Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month to $68.3 per barrel, with a 21.3% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 - month average, with the decline rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP [52] International Trade and US Dollar Index Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic import and export volume decreased month - on - month to $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the past 6 - month cumulative value, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP valuation [58] - In June 2025, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months to 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the past 9 - month average, which is bearish for SP [58]

Report Title - Option Strategy Weekly Report 0703: Significant Gains in Lithium Carbonate Call Options and Good Performance of Crude Oil Option Collar Strategy [1] Core Viewpoints - In the past week, lithium carbonate had a large increase, and the return on buying call options was significant, with a yield of 4.05%. Industrial silicon, iron ore and other varieties also gained significantly from buying call options. Among them, due to the increase in volatility of industrial silicon options, buying straddle/strangle options also resulted in significant profits. For some varieties with large declines, the collar strategy had a good hedging effect. For example, LPG declined by 1.06%, and the yield of its collar strategy was -0.22% [3] Strategy Performance Overview Strategy Yield Table 1 - This table shows the weekly yields of various commodity option strategies, including call options, put options, straddle options, strangle options, bull spreads, bear spreads, etc., for different varieties such as soybean meal, corn, palm oil, etc. [5] Strategy Yield Table 2 - This table presents the weekly yields of other commodity option strategies, including call ratio spreads, put ratio spreads, covered strategies, insurance strategies, collar strategies, synthetic futures, etc., for different varieties [6] Strategy Analysis Call Options - The report provides a distribution chart of the yields of buying call options for mainstream varieties, with a note that the strike price for buying call options is selected as one - step out - of - the - money. It also shows the price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month [7][8][10] Put Options - A distribution chart of the yields of buying put options for mainstream varieties is given, with the strike price for buying put options selected as one - step out - of - the - money. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are also presented [11][14][13] Straddle Options - A distribution chart of the yields of buying straddle options for mainstream varieties is shown, with the strike price for buying straddle options selected as at - the - money. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are provided [15][19][16] Strangle Options - A distribution chart of the yields of buying strangle options for mainstream varieties is presented, with the strike price for buying strangle options selected as one - step out - of - the - money. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are shown [20][23][21] Bull Spreads - A distribution chart of the yields of buying bull spreads for mainstream varieties is provided. The strategy involves buying one - step in - the - money call options and selling one - step out - of - the - money call options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are given [25][28][26] Bear Spreads - A distribution chart of the yields of buying bear spreads for mainstream varieties is shown. The strategy involves buying one - step in - the - money put options and selling one - step out - of - the - money put options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are presented [29][32][34] Call Ratio Spreads - A distribution chart of the yields of buying call ratio spreads for mainstream varieties is provided. The strategy involves buying 1 contract of one - step in - the - money call options and selling 1 contract of one - step out - of - the - money call options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are given [35][37][39] Put Ratio Spreads - A distribution chart of the yields of buying put ratio spreads for mainstream varieties is presented. The strategy involves buying 1 contract of one - step in - the - money put options and selling 2 contracts of one - step out - of - the - money put options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are shown [40][41][42] Covered Strategies - A distribution chart of the yields of covered strategies for mainstream varieties is provided. The strategy is constructed by holding a long position in the underlying asset and selling one - step out - of - the - money call options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are given [43][45][46] Insurance Strategies - A distribution chart of the yields of insurance strategies for mainstream varieties is shown. The strategy is constructed by holding a long position in the underlying asset and buying one - step out - of - the - money put options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are presented [47][48][49] Collar Strategies - A distribution chart of the yields of collar strategies for mainstream varieties is provided. The strategy is constructed by holding a long position in the underlying asset, selling one - step out - of - the - money call options, and buying one - step out - of - the - money put options. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are given [50][52][53] Synthetic Futures - A distribution chart of the yields of synthetic futures for mainstream varieties is presented. The strategy is constructed by holding a long position in the underlying asset, selling one - step out - of - the - money call options, and buying one - step in - the - money put options with the same strike price. The price trends and net values of mainstream varieties in the past month are shown [55][58][56]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 07 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日份格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 113.20 | 112.93 | 0.27 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.34 | 7.39 | -0.05 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रे रि | 昨收 | 涨跌 | ...