1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices declined today, with overall weak spot steel transactions, a drop in the futures market, and no spot - futures connection, leading to a general weakening of transactions. Last week's data showed a slight increase in the production of the five major steel products, with an increase in rebar production and a shift to increased production in hot - rolled coils. Steel mills are still in the mode of production suspension and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar, and the inventory is shifting from mill warehouses to social warehouses. The capital availability of downstream construction sites nationwide improved last week, with better capital availability in housing projects than in non - real estate projects. Recently, the pace of fiscal expenditure has accelerated, and the recovery of downstream demand remains to be seen. Steel mills' willingness to resume production is weak, still putting pressure on raw materials in the short term. However, due to large overseas geopolitical frictions and the recent signs of easing in US - Iran relations, energy prices have fallen, and the black metal sector has followed suit. Therefore, steel prices may maintain a volatile trend in the near term, but there is still a chance for steel prices to return to fundamentals in March, and pressure on steel prices remains. Attention should still be paid to hot metal production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 rose 31 yuan/ton to 3119 yuan/ton, RB10 rose 32 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton, and RB01 rose 33 yuan/ton to 3174 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads are also presented. For example, the spread between RB01 - RB05 increased by 2 yuan to 55 yuan. The rebar's disk profit for different contracts decreased, with the 05 - contract rebar disk profit dropping by 10 yuan to - 151 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Shandong, and Tangshan all increased to varying degrees. The cheapest deliverable product's 05 - contract basis was 71 yuan. The regional price spreads and spot profits also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai rebar and Beijing rebar remained unchanged at 90 yuan, and the adjustment and rolling profit increased by 40 yuan to 50 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 rose 40 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, HC10 rose 38 yuan/ton to 3282 yuan/ton, and HC01 rose 28 yuan/ton to 3291 yuan/ton. There were also changes in the spreads between different contracts. The hot - rolled coils' disk profit for different contracts also changed, with the 01 - contract hot - rolled coils' disk profit dropping by 14 yuan to 18 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Lecong, and Shanghai all increased. The cheapest deliverable product's 05 - contract basis was - 10 yuan. The regional price spreads and spot profits also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai hot - rolled coils and Tianjin hot - rolled coils remained unchanged at 20 yuan, and the Tianjin hot - rolled coils' profit increased by 26 yuan to - 344 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Relevant Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye rebar was 3120 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan (down 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan (down 10 yuan) [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio when the price is high, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. 3.2.3 Important Information - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%; cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs on March 10, 2026, China's household appliance exports in February 2026 were 35.8985 million units; the cumulative exports from January to February were 80.2852 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [9]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis, price spreads, and disk profits of different contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products in different regions and the cost of electric furnaces in East China, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided for the charts [13][14][15]...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 10, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed performance. The silicon ferro - alloy (SF) main contract closed at 5876, up 0.14% with a decrease of 1411 in open interest; the manganese silicide (SM) main contract closed at 6088, down 0.72% with a decrease of 28956 in open interest. Both SF and SM are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term due to the positive feedback between cost and demand, but the sharp rise and fall of crude oil prices have a significant impact on market sentiment [5][6] - The trading strategies are: for unilateral trading, the profit - to - loss ratio is not high after the price increase, so it is recommended to partially close out long positions established earlier; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [7] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5876, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of 90, and the trading volume decreased by 231,692. The SM main contract closed at 6088, with a daily change of - 44 and a weekly change of - 30, and the trading volume decreased by 378,125 [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of silicon ferro - alloy were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a decline of 120 - 170 yuan/ton. The spot prices of manganese silicide were also stable to weak, with some regions dropping by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The manganese ore spot in Tianjin Port was stable to strong, with each spot rising by 0.2 - 0.5 yuan/ton degree [3][5][6] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis and spread of silicon ferro - alloy and manganese silicide showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 212, with a daily change of 52 and a weekly change of 120 [3] Second Part: Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: Partially close out long positions due to low profit - to - loss ratio after price increases; Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] - **Important Information**: China's steel exports in February were 7.837 million tons, and exports denominated in US dollars increased by 39.6% year - on - year [8][9] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - **Price and Spread Charts**: Include the trend chart of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread chart of SF - SM on the disk, the monthly spread charts of SF and SM, etc [11][13][15] - **Basis and Cost - Profit Charts**: Include the basis charts of SF and SM main contracts, the spot price charts of silicon manganese, the electricity price chart for ferroalloy production, and the cost - profit charts of silicon ferro - alloy and manganese silicide in different regions [18][20][23]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the supply of peanut kernels remaining low and downstream demand remaining weak. The peanut oil spot price is stable, and the peanut meal price has recently stabilized. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing peanuts is good. The peanut futures are oscillating at a low level, and the 05 contract is oscillating at the bottom [3][4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7934, down 22 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 11,907 (-60.57%) and an open interest of 22,064 (-14.63%); PK610 closed at 8312, down 42 (-0.51%), with a trading volume of 1,723 (-70.64%) and an open interest of 6,136 (5.99%); PK601 closed at 8356, down 46 (-0.55%), with a trading volume of 55 (-83.23%) and an open interest of 329 (2.17%) [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7800, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3300, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 3180, down 100. The price of peanut oil was 14300, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8720, down 450. The basis for Henan Nanyang was - 134, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 66. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 5, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5580. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, and that of Senegalese peanuts was stable [1]. - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was 422, down 24; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 378, up 20; the PK10 - PK01 spread was - 44, up 4 [1]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut price in Henan is stable, while that in Northeast China is weak. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday. The price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.55 yuan/jin, stable, and the price of Huayu 23 in Xingcheng was 4.3 yuan/jin, stable. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.5 - 3.85 yuan/jin, stable. The price in Junan, Shandong was 3.4 yuan/jin, stable. The import price of Senegalese peanut oilseeds was 7200 yuan/ton, and that of commercial peanuts was 7700 yuan/ton, both stable. The purchase prices of some peanut oil mills are stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7200 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7820 yuan/ton. The soybean oil price is down, while the peanut oil price is stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is quoted at 16500 yuan/ton, both stable. The Rizhao soybean meal spot price is down to 3180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from yesterday. The price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal per unit of protein is low, and peanut meal is relatively strong in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [3][4]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Buy the 05 peanut contract lightly on dips for short - term trading [7]. - **Calendar Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option on dips [9]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and iFinD Information [11][16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of domestic corn is relatively tight, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term. The price of corn starch is mainly affected by the price of corn and downstream inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most corn and corn starch futures contracts declined on March 10, 2026. For example, C2601 closed at 2365, down 3 (-0.13%); CS2601 closed at 2697, down 10 (-0.37%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of corn and corn starch in different regions showed different trends. The price of corn in Qinggang increased by 10 yuan, while that in Nantong Port and Guangdong Port decreased by 10 yuan. The price of starch in Yihai (Heilongjiang) increased by 50 yuan, and that in Zhucheng Xingmao and Hengren Industry and Trade increased by 10 yuan and 40 yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also varied. The basis of corn in Qinggang was -187, while that in Zhucheng Xingmao was 33. The basis of starch in Longfeng was 124, and that in Zhucheng Xingmao was 294 [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch showed different changes. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 was -16, up 11; the spread of CS01 - CS05 was -9, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The sharp decline in crude oil and the correction of US corn have reduced the global corn supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in the northern ports and the Northeast has continued to rise. The opening rate of deep - processing in North China has increased, but the price increase space of corn is limited due to the increase in corn supply and the general domestic breeding demand. It is expected that the short - term decline space of the 05 corn futures contract is limited [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong is still low, and the spot price of starch in Shandong and the Northeast is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream inventory. It is expected that the 05 starch futures contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 US corn has support at 440 cents per bushel. Close the short position of 05 corn and wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the spread between 05 corn and starch at a low price [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the closing price of corn in the northern ports, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the spread of corn 5 - 9, the spread of corn starch 5 - 9, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the spread of the 05 corn starch contract [14][15][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to increased volatility in various commodity prices. - Different industries show different trends and characteristics under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Although the market declined across the board, it showed resilience. The Middle East situation will cause short - term market fluctuations, but the trend of artificial intelligence may drive the stock index to rise in the medium term. It is recommended to go long at low levels while controlling risks [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. Due to factors such as inflation data and geopolitical events, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the short term and try to short TS and TF contracts at high levels [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: After the short - term bullish factors are fully reflected, the market shows a downward trend. It is recommended to be cautious due to the upcoming monthly supply - demand report and large fundamental pressure [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be strong, while domestic sugar prices are expected to be bottom - oscillating in the long - term and short - term strong due to factors such as production expectations and oil prices [30][31][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The market expects a reduction in production and inventory in February. It is recommended to be long in the short - term and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [33][34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is strong, and the futures price is expected to be high - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the callback of the 05 contract [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The overall supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long lightly at low levels [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to go short on the June contract [45][47]. - **Apples**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to the high price of the May contract [49][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support below and is expected to be oscillating and strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels [52][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the steel price continues to oscillate. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view and consider shorting the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread [56][57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas in the short term [58][59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances have reappeared, and the ore price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [61][62]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio has decreased. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment has initially improved. The price is expected to oscillate in the near - term range. It is recommended to go long cautiously at low levels near the 20 - day moving average [66][67]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The conflict has temporarily eased, and the price is oscillating. It is recommended to go long cautiously at low levels and wait for the opportunity to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at a low level [69][70]. - **Copper**: The conflict has eased, and the copper price has recovered. It is recommended to buy after the price stabilizes after the correction [71][72]. - **Alumina**: The increase in freight affects the ore end. It is recommended to go short at high levels [73][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [76][77]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at low levels [80][82]. - **Lead**: It oscillates in a range. It is recommended to buy at low levels and sell at high levels [83][85]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. It is recommended to wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize before buying [86][88]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize before buying [89][92]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates in a range. It is recommended to operate within the range [93][94]. - **Polysilicon**: The spill - over effect of the Iran event is limited, and the price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to be cautious about going long and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [95][96]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the macro environment, it oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to buy after the price stabilizes after the correction [97][99]. - **Tin**: Trump's remarks have alleviated the long - term war concerns, and the tin price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [100][101]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate in the second half of March is becoming clearer. It is recommended to wait and see due to the large risk [102][103][105]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation impacts other routes. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical conflict [105][107]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic low - carbon policy continues, and the EU carbon price is affected by the regional situation. The domestic carbon price is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short - term, while the EU carbon price is expected to be oscillating at a low level [108][111][112]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is trading on Trump's TACO. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the cost fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions of BU2606 and pay attention to geopolitical risks [117][118][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical risk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions of FU2605 and pay attention to short - term geopolitical fluctuations [120][121][122]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [123][124]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates violently. It is recommended to wait and see [125][126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX maintenance season is coming, and some plants are reducing production preventively. The aromatics sector is expected to be driven upwards. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline [129][130][131]. - **BZ & EB**: The refineries' preventive production cuts affect the supply of aromatic products. The aromatics sector is expected to be driven upwards. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline [132][133]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian plant has stopped production, and the Middle East import supply is affected. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and it is recommended to be long in a wide - range oscillation [134][135][136]. - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost and strengthens. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline and consider shorting the processing fee at high levels [138][140]. - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to be long while preventing the risk of a decline [141]. - **Propylene**: The main raw material price has risen, and the supply - demand side is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation and be long while preventing the risk of a decline [143][144]. - **Plastic PP**: The global PP weekly operating rate has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP and short the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [145][146]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuates greatly. It is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short - term [149][150]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to go long at low levels and not chase the high price [151][152]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuates greatly. It is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short - term [153][155]. - **Glass**: The price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to short at high levels [156][157]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates in a wide range. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [159][160]. - **Urea**: It follows the upward trend. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and consider selling put options on the correction [161][162]. - **Pulp**: Pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the pulp transportation cost. It is recommended to operate cautiously within the range [164][168]. - **Logs**: The spot price is strong, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [169][171]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to go short at high levels [172][173]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The electricity consumption in the Thai rubber industry has decreased marginally. It is recommended to wait and see [175][176][177]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene port inventory has increased. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract and short the spread between BR2605 and RU2605 [179][180].

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 3 月 9 日 【粕类日报】宏观影响增加 盘面大幅上涨 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/3/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 天津 | 0 1 0 5 | 3092 2995 | 3 6 8 0 | 东莞 | 280 200 | 230 190 | 5 0 1 0 | | 豆粕 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3049 | 4 6 | | 180 | 150 | 3 0 | | | | | | 日照 | 200 | 170 | 3 0 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2412 | 5 4 | | 218 | 186 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The US soybean futures continued to strengthen this week, mainly driven by macro factors and good performance in the biodiesel sector. However, the fundamental support is limited, with average export sales and increasing pressure from the South American market. The domestic soybean meal spot market is under significant pressure, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The rapeseed meal market is also under pressure, despite its recent strong performance driven by the soybean meal and international rapeseed markets [5][6]. - Given the many macro disturbances and the inability of the fundamentals to support continuous price increases, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading. For arbitrage, the MRM09 spread is expected to narrow, and for options, selling call options on near - month contracts is suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis of the US soybean market**: The US soybean futures are strongly influenced by macro and weather factors. The recent increase in international oil prices and shipping costs has raised the import cost of US soybeans. Although the export situation is average, the US soybean crushing volume is strong, mainly due to high oil and meal prices, good biodiesel demand, and a favorable international soybean meal export situation. However, the US soybean market still faces pressure due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability [5][13]. - **Analysis of the Brazilian soybean market**: Brazilian soybean prices have shown a downward trend. The weather in the Brazilian production area has affected the yield in the southern region, but the overall harvest progress is relatively good. The export volume is increasing, and it is expected to reach about 16.09 million tons this month [16]. - **Analysis of the domestic soybean meal market**: The domestic soybean meal futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by macro factors. The spot market is cold, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Analysis of the domestic rapeseed meal market**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures have strengthened, influenced by the soybean meal and the international rapeseed market. The demand is average, and the supply is improving, with expected increases in rapeseed and rapeseed meal arrivals. The overall market is still under pressure [22]. - **Trading strategies**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM09 spread; for options, sell call options on near - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Multiple factors drive the US soybean futures up**: The US soybean futures are affected by macro and weather factors. The increase in international oil prices and shipping costs has led to higher import costs, and the downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean yield has provided support. However, the export situation is average, and the market still faces pressure [13]. - **Lower Brazilian production and weather disturbances**: Brazilian soybean prices have declined. The weather in the Brazilian production area has affected the yield in the southern region, and the export volume is increasing. The weather in Argentina is relatively dry, but the impact on production is limited [16]. - **Weak market transactions and rising futures**: The domestic soybean meal futures have risen significantly, driven by macro factors. The spot market is cold, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Improved supply and strong rapeseed meal futures**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures have strengthened, influenced by the soybean meal and the international rapeseed market. The demand is average, and the supply is improving, with expected increases in rapeseed and rapeseed meal arrivals. The overall market is still under pressure [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International market**: The report presents data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing data. It also shows data on foreign soybean premiums [26][29][32]. - **Macro factors**: It includes exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as international shipping cost data [35][38][44]. - **Supply**: Data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing volumes are provided [50]. - **Demand**: Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 are presented [53]. - **Inventory**: Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories are provided [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure in the pig market is relatively large, and the pig price continues to decline. Although the secondary fattening provides some support, it is mainly a temporary situation. The demand in the pig market is generally average, with an increase in pig slaughter volume but a limited absolute amount, an increase in frozen product inventory, and a continuous decline in the fresh - sales rate [5]. - In the futures market, although there is discussion about the further reduction of production capacity, due to relatively good breeding profits, the decline in breeding - end production capacity is expected to be limited. The near - month price may rise with the improvement of the spot market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - The pig price showed an obvious downward trend this week. The supply - side pressure in the market is still significant. The large - scale enterprises have a relatively large pressure to sell pigs, and the planned sales volume this month has increased. The ordinary farmers are more resistant to low prices, and the enthusiasm for selling pigs is average. The secondary fattening has increased recently. The pig slaughter weight is still at a relatively high level, and the subsequent supply pressure is still relatively large. The demand in the pig market is generally average, with an increase in pig slaughter volume but a limited absolute amount, an increase in frozen product inventory, and a continuous decline in the fresh - sales rate [5]. - In the futures market, the pig price has shown a downward trend. Although there is discussion about the further reduction of production capacity, due to relatively good breeding profits, the decline in breeding - end production capacity is expected to be limited. The near - month price may rise with the improvement of the spot market [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate mainly. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7]. 2. Data Charts & Logical Analysis Pig Price - This week, the pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The market sales volume continued to increase, and the overall support was relatively limited, with the decline rate of pig prices accelerating [12]. Sales and Consumption Changes - Sales situation: The pig sales volume continued to increase this week. As of the end of February, the overall pig sales plan was about 94.9% completed. It is expected that the sales plan in March will increase by 25.29% month - on - month, and the daily sales volume is expected to continue to increase. The pig slaughter weight is still at a high level. Large - scale enterprises have a relatively high enthusiasm for selling pigs, while ordinary farmers are resistant to low prices, and the secondary fattening has started to enter the market [13]. - Consumption situation: The pig slaughter volume increased month - on - month this week, and the frozen product inventory also increased. The apparent demand for pigs is relatively average. The pig price has shown an obvious downward trend, and the fresh - sales rate has also declined, so the pig demand is relatively average [13]. Breeding Profit - The overall pig breeding profit showed a downward trend. As of the week of February 27, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 159.65 yuan per head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan per head compared with last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 20.83 yuan per head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan per head compared with last week [22]. Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kilogram piglets this week was 348 yuan per head, a decrease of 9 yuan per head compared with last week, and the price of 15 - kilogram piglets was 447 yuan per head, a decrease of 12 yuan per head compared with last week. The enthusiasm of the breeding end to replenish piglets is relatively average [29]. - Sows: The sow price this week was 1,557 yuan per head, remaining the same as last week. The price ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, the enthusiasm of the market to replenish sows is relatively average, and the overall culling is expected to increase [29]. Inventory of Reproductive Sows - According to the Yongyi data, the inventory of reproductive sows increased slightly month - on - month in December, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.54% and large - scale enterprises increasing by 0.36%. According to the Ganglian data, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 0.22% month - on - month in December, with large - scale enterprises decreasing by 0.18% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 1.19%. Overall, there are certain differences in different sample calibers. Due to the general number of culled sows, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [32].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Oil and Fats: Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts in the Middle East, Overall Oscillation and Rise in Oil and Fats [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, the biodiesel blending profits of US soybean oil and palm oil have improved significantly, and the demand for oil and fats in the biodiesel sector is expected to increase. Geopolitical factors have also increased shipping costs, raising the cost of oil and fats, making the overall oil and fats market prone to rise and difficult to fall [5][23] - For palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil may continue to reduce production and inventory in February. With a high - base inventory, it may remain at a relatively high level. There is a phased inventory accumulation pressure for domestic palm oil after delayed arrival, but India's large imports and increased biodiesel blending profits are beneficial to palm oil demand [5][23] - For soybean oil, supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy and geopolitical factors driving up the overall oil and fats market, while the domestic supply is sufficient and demand is weak, resulting in a situation of strong external and weak internal market, with the market in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [5][23] - For rapeseed oil, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, it maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation will boost its price. However, if the Middle East war weakens and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the upward pressure on rapeseed oil will become prominent [5][23] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 1. Recent Core Events and Market Review - Reuters expects Malaysia's palm oil to have weak supply and demand in February. The inventory may continue to decrease to 2.63 million tons, a 6.52% month - on - month decrease from January. The production is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.8% month - on - month decrease, and exports are 1.18 million tons, a 20.8% month - on - month decrease [4][8] - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in February to decrease 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons, still at a historically high level. Palm oil imports increased 10% month - on - month to 840,000 tons, reaching a six - month high; soybean oil imports increased 8.7% month - on - month to 300,000 tons; and sunflower oil imports decreased 45% month - on - month to 150,000 tons, at a historically low level [4][12] 2. International Market - **POGO Spread**: With the continuous rise of crude oil prices due to the Middle East geopolitical war, the POGO spread has narrowed significantly to negative, and the market expects an increase in palm oil consumption in biodiesel due to improved blending profits. As of March 6, the POGO spread fell to around - $40 [8] - **India's Edible Oil Imports**: There are rumors of large - scale soybean oil cargo cancellations in India. It is expected that India will increase palm oil imports due to the relatively low absolute price of palm oil [12] 3. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week. The import profit was in an inverted state, and there were 7 palm oil purchase ships this week. The demand is weak after the festival, and the overall market is affected by geopolitical and biodiesel factors, making the oil and fats market prone to rise [15] - **Soybean Oil**: As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 913,300 tons, a decrease of 31,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.34% decrease. The basis has decreased steadily. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [18] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of February 27, the coastal rapeseed inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 151,000 tons, and the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 271,000 tons, at a slightly low - level historically. The import profit of European rapeseed oil is in an inverted state. The Middle East war has affected transportation, and the rapeseed oil price may continue to oscillate upwards in the short term [21] 4. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances continue, and oil and fats may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [25] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider waiting for high - level anti - arbitrage opportunities for P59 and y59 [25] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [25] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly production, export, and inventory data from 2020 - 2026 [29][30][31] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Covers monthly production, export, and inventory data from 2017 - 2025 [34][35][36] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Involves NOPA US soybean crushing volume, NOPA US soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volume and soybean oil inventory data [38][39][41] - **India's Oil and Fats Supply and Demand**: Contains data on India's edible oil consumption, import, and port inventory [47][48][49] - **Domestic Oil and Fats Import Profit**: Shows the import profit data of European rapeseed oil, 24 - degree palm oil [52][53][54] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: Comprises data on soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume [57][58][59] - **Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Includes data on palm oil monthly import, monthly shipment, and weekly trading volume [62][63] - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: Covers data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import, and monthly consumption [64][65][66] - **Domestic Oil and Fats Spot Basis**: Presents the spot basis data of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - pressed rapeseed oil [71][72][73] - **Domestic Oil and Fats Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oil and fats inventory [76][77][78]

油脂日报 2026 年 03 月 09 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2026/3/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 2605收盘价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8672 | 260 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8932 | | | | 9022 | 8852 | | 350 | -10 | 260 | -20 | 180 | -40 | | 棕榈油 | 9720 | 502 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9640 | | | | 9620 | 9800 | ...