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铅周报:关注资金面影响铅价或冲高回落-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 07:52
铅周报:关注资金面影响 铅价或冲高回落 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号: F03129697 投资咨询证号: Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 产业供需: ➢ 供应端,近期国内铅精矿供需仍处紧平衡态势,国产铅精矿加工费维持350元/金属吨,SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费-125美元/干吨。本周铅价上涨后,再生铅炼厂废电瓶采 购价格并未明显跟涨,回收商观望铅价走势后惜售情绪浓厚。再生铅周度开工率维持增势,原料需求亦维持增势。随再生铅冶炼厂开工提升,后期含铅废料价格预计仍有上涨 空间。 ➢ 冶炼端,本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率率为67.57%,较上周下滑0.93%。河南和云南地区的冶炼厂生产整体保持稳定,湖南地区此前检修的某中小规模冶炼厂 ...
供需宽松,造纸板块底部震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 07:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The paper - making sector is oscillating at the bottom due to loose supply and demand. Pulp shows a pattern of "weak softwood and stable hardwood", and double - offset paper remains in a low - level stalemate in the short term [1][9]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Pulp has a "high inventory + weak demand" situation, with softwood pulp under pressure and hardwood pulp relatively stable. Double - offset paper has loose supply and demand, with price close to cash cost and limited supply increase, but weak social demand [9]. - **Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: For SP2501, wait and see; if port inventory drops below 2 million tons and basis strengthens, go long. For OP2501, mainly wait and see, and short against the lower edge of the spot price [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4300 for OP options [8]. Part 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction of softwood is prominent, and the spot price is suppressed. Hardwood is relatively resistant to decline but has limited upside space due to high inventory, maintaining a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" pattern [9]. - **Double - offset paper**: The price is close to cash cost, and the factory's willingness to hold prices is strong. However, due to weak social demand and high inventory, it is in a low - level stalemate in the short term [9]. Part 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply and Inventory**: - **Double - offset paper**: Production is 20.7 million tons (+2.0%), capacity utilization is 53.9% (+0.9pct), and enterprise inventory is 133.1 million tons (+1.2%). Production increased, but demand was weak, and inventory continued to rise [9][20]. - **Coated paper**: Production is 8.5 million tons (+7.6%), capacity utilization is 63.1% (+4.8pct), and enterprise inventory is 36.8 million tons (+1.7%). Supply increased significantly, but demand was limited, and inventory rebounded slightly [23][28]. - **Domestic pulp**: The sample production of hardwood pulp is 23.5 million tons, and the weekly average production profit is about 110 yuan/ton (+0.9%). The overall supply increased slightly, and the profit rebounded slightly [32]. - **Wood pulp**: The total inventory of five major ports is 2.055 million tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (-0.9%). The domestic chemimechanical pulp production profit is 151 yuan/ton (-4.4%) [35]. - **White cardboard**: Production is 36.0 million tons (+4.35%), capacity utilization is 79.65% (+3.32pct), and factory inventory is 1.08 million tons (+0.47%). Supply recovered rapidly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [41]. - **Price**: - **Double - offset paper**: The average ex - factory price is 4643 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 244 yuan/ton [9]. - **Coated paper**: The average enterprise - inclusive tax price is 4975 yuan/ton, and the price is weakly stable [51]. - **Pulp**: Softwood pulp in Shandong is 5444 yuan/ton (-1.22%), hardwood pulp is 4257 yuan/ton (+0.16%), natural pulp is 4864 yuan/ton (+0.29%), and chemimechanical pulp is 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [57].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:43
期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货:利好传来逢低做多 3 | | --- | | 国债期货:震荡市等待做多机会 4 | | 豆粕:大豆压榨利润继续修复 盘面逐步反弹 5 | | --- | | 白糖:外糖价格继续下跌 郑糖价格相对抗跌 5 | | 油脂板块:短期盘面震荡略偏弱 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉:玉米和淀粉: 玉米继续上量,盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪:出栏压力好转 价格小幅反弹 8 | | 花生:花生油厂仍未大量收购,花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋:淘鸡有所增加 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果:新季果质量较差 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱:收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 11 | | 钢材:河北开启环保限产,铁水产量继续下滑 13 | | --- | | 双焦:底部有支撑 上行有阻力 13 | | 铁矿:中期偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金:宏观情绪带动反弹,但供需压力仍存 15 | | 贵金属:多空因素交织,关注央行周波动风险 17 | | --- | | 铜:中美达成初步共识,铜 ...
进口扰动,甲醇延续震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:13
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 23. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand [4]. - On the supply side, the raw coal price is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is strong, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, resulting in a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - At the import end, the US dollar price has slightly declined, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly declined, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have slightly declined, the China - Europe price difference is oscillating, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. Iran has loaded 750,000 tons in October. Affected by sanctions, Iranian tenders have offered significant discounts, and there is an abundance of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - In terms of demand, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a decline in the operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - Regarding inventory, the import arrival has slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range [4]. - Overall, the international plant operating rate has increased, some plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has increased to around 35,000 tons. Imports are gradually resuming, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the overall trading is light. The basis of spot prices is stable. The downstream demand is stable, the arrival volume is stable, the MTO operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short term, methanol is mainly oscillating weakly under the background of high inventory [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 23, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 84.89%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants was 67.80%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from October 18 - 24, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,069,909 tons, a decrease of 25,950 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 73.34%. Some Iranian plants had different operating conditions, and only the M5 large - scale plant in South American MHTL was in operation [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on October 22, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol at ports was 352,000 tons, including 316,300 tons of foreign vessels (251,800 tons of visible and 64,500 tons of non - visible, with 188,800 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 35,700 tons of domestic vessels (6,500 tons in Jiangsu and 29,200 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 23, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 87.25%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points from last week. The overall olefin industry operating rate decreased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.97%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 74.4%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 38.87%. The overall capacity utilization rate of traditional downstream industries decreased compared with last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 51,300 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 18.57% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 360,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 215,700 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 9,200 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the chemical coal in the northwest region rebounded, and the methanol price declined. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 480 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), and the price in the north line was 2,000 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan) [8]
需求释放,尿素震荡反弹
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:00
需求释放,尿素震荡反弹 银河期货研究所 化工研究组:张孟超 投资咨询资格证号:Z0017786 从业资格号:F03086954 2025年10月 1、概述 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 供应-全国:2025年第42周 (20251016-1022),中国尿素分原料产能利用率:煤制尿素81.23%,环比跌2.42%;气制尿素67.56%,环 比跌3.19%。周期内新增1家煤制、1家气制企业装置停车,3家煤制企业停车装置恢复生产,通过企业的开停时间计算、同时延续上周 期的变化,本周期煤制产能利用率、气制产能利用率均有所下跌。 供应-山东:2025年第42周 (20251016-1022),山东尿素产能利用率83.82%,环比持平。周期内日月装置停车继续,其它企业生产基 本正常,同时延续上周期装置情况,产能利用率暂时维持。 需求-三聚氰胺:2025年第43周(20251017-1023),中国三聚氰胺产能利用率周均值为48.30%,较上周减少6.88个百分点。 需求-复合肥:2025年第43周(20251017-1023),本周期,复合肥 ...
铜周报:铜价上涨趋势不变,逢低布局多单-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:27
铜周报:铜价上涨趋势不变,逢低布局多单 研究员: 王伟 期货从业证号:F03143400 投资咨询资格证号:Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 中美两国于2025年10月24日至27日在马来西亚举行经贸磋商,中美领导人保持密切联系,关注apec峰会情况。 n 铜矿 n 库存 n 价差 n 废铜 n 精铜 n 消费 从终端来看,国内需求边际走弱,房地产继续拖累市场,光伏、空调排产出现大幅下滑,后期市场主要支撑来源于两网订单、汽车、储能电池,消费旺季不旺,下游对高价接 受度不足,85000元/吨以下采购有所增加。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中国9月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为258.7万吨,1-9月累计进口量为2,263.4万吨,同比增加7.7%。铜矿供应端扰动增加,grasberg、QB二期等产量不及预期。 10月24日SMM进口铜精矿指数(周)报-42.7美元/吨,较上一期的40.97美元/吨减少1.73美元/吨。港口库存增加到67.81万实物吨,较上一期 ...
银河期货烧碱周报-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market are in a weak balance, and the price trend is stable. The supply side sees some plants resuming operation after maintenance and some enterprises reducing their loads, with overall stable supply. The demand side shows a slight increase in delivery volume to major downstream industries. The stable profit from liquid chlorine reduces enterprises' willingness to adjust prices. Future market trends depend on delivery to major downstream industries and changes in liquid chlorine prices [4]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with stable supply and a slight increase in demand. Liquid chlorine provides profit support, and future trends depend on downstream delivery and liquid chlorine prices [4]. - **Strategy**: The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Shandong Alumina Market**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale alumina plants in Shandong is decreasing, and the price has been adjusted downwards several times. As of October 17, the price is stable at 740 yuan/ton, and the current delivery volume is 8720 tons, showing a significant decline [7][9]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 414,300 tons (wet tons), a 2.73% increase from the previous week and a 37.78% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate is 23.80%, a 0.71% increase from the previous week. Most regions' inventory ratios are rising [13]. - **Alumina Market**: Most alumina enterprises are operating normally, with no clear maintenance plans except for a roasting furnace rotation plan in a large - scale alumina group in Chongqing. The operating capacity is 9.765 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate is 85.2%. The inventory of alumina in aluminum plants is rising, and the market is under pressure with a downward trend [17]. - **Caustic Soda Production**: The average capacity utilization rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 10 - 16, 2025, is 81.4%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The load has decreased in multiple regions [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Prices**: Includes price trends of caustic soda futures contracts, 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as price differences between different varieties and regions [23][25][27]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: Shows the profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the prices of liquid chlorine [40]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory**: Covers factory and market inventories of liquid and flake caustic soda, as well as provincial - level inventory data [42][46]. - **Caustic Soda Production**: Involves production volume and capacity utilization rate of caustic soda, provincial - level production data, and new production capacity plans [49][51][53]. - **Caustic Soda Device Maintenance**: Lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda devices in different regions and enterprises [55]. - **Caustic Soda Consumption**: Presents the demand and weekly consumption of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda [57][58]. - **Alumina Market**: Covers the production capacity, output, and new production capacity plans of alumina, as well as the impact on caustic soda demand [16][61][65]. - **Related Industries**: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has increased. The printing and dyeing industry has stable operation but a lackluster "Golden September" [67][71]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: Includes export volume, price, profit, and export destinations of caustic soda, as well as overseas alumina production capacity plans [73][77][82].
油脂周报:马棕高频数据欠佳,油脂震荡偏弱运行-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:12
Report Title - Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Poor High - frequency Data of Malaysian Palm Oil, Oils and Fats Oscillating Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October while exports were poor, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. Palm oil lacks positive drivers and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential. Domestic soybean oil may experience slight de - stocking, and there is some support from exports. Domestic rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally, providing some support for its price [4][21]. Summary by Section 1. International Market 1.1 Malaysian Palm Oil - Production: MPOA data indicates a 11% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October. UOB expects the increase to be between 10% - 14%, and SPPOMA predicts a 2.71% increase compared to the same period last month. It is expected to slightly increase in October and be higher than the 5 - year average [7]. - Exports: ITS data shows a 0.4% decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of October. Overall, exports in October are expected to be average and lower than the 5 - year average. The inventory in October is expected to reach 235 - 245 tons [7]. 1.2 Indonesian Palm Oil - Biodiesel consumption: In January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was 10.57 million liters, nearly 10% more than the same period last year. The implementation of biodiesel this year is smooth but may not reach the target. - Policy: Indonesia plans to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% in the second half of 2026. The predicted biodiesel target for next year is 17.55 - 17.85 million tons, with an increase in CPO of 1.8 - 2.1 million tons. However, some analysts expect the B50 policy to be postponed to 2027, which still disturbs the market [10]. 2. Domestic Market 2.1 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025 (Week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. It is currently at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same historical period. - Import: Palm oil imports were poor in September, only 190,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January - September were 2.25 million tons, at a historical low. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 120. It is expected that imports in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is expected to be stable and weak. - Market outlook: In the short term, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil is negative, and domestic palm oil is slightly accumulating inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential [13]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.224 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. - Supply and demand: This week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. Spot transactions were weak, and there were reports of small - scale exports to India. In the future, as soybean arrivals and crushing decrease, inventory may slightly de - stock, but overall supply is sufficient. - Market outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips for the 05 contract [16]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period but is continuously de - stocking. - Supply and demand: This week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 11,000 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil increased to around $1100, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 900. Rapeseed oil imports were relatively stable, while rapeseed imports decreased significantly to 115,000 tons. - Market outlook: The overall upward momentum of oils and fats is weak. The rapeseed oil market may fluctuate due to changes in rapeseed purchases and crushing. The current fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the continuous marginal de - stocking still supports the price [19]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider going long on dips after the market stabilizes. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [23]
银河期货纯碱玻璃周报-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:12
纯碱玻璃周报 研究员:李轩怡 期货从业证号:F03108920 投资咨询资格证号:Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——产量稳定高位 单位:万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位:% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位:% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 ...
聚酯产业链期货周报-20251027
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream US crude oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, geopolitical conflicts have fluctuating impacts, and there is no definite upward driver for oil prices. The medium - to - long - term expectation of crude oil surplus is hard to be falsified, resulting in insufficient cost support for PX and PTA [7]. - For each product in the polyester industry chain, there are different supply - demand situations and profit trends. For example, PX has a high - level profit and high - level operation expected in the fourth quarter, while PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation, and MEG's supply - demand is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: Upstream, oil price lacks upward drive, PX&PTA cost support is insufficient. PX has a back - structured spot floating price with changing monthly spreads, and its supply is abundant. PTA's social inventory has been rising, and there is a risk of further inventory accumulation. Trading strategies include going short at high prices, PTA15 reverse arbitrage, and option watching [7]. - **MEG**: After the holiday, port inventory increased significantly. Supply is expected to decrease in the second half of the month. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, watching for arbitrage, and selling call options [7]. - **PF**: Short - fiber factory inventory has no pressure, and processing fees are slightly stronger. However, future demand lacks effective support. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, going long on processing fees, and option watching [7]. - **PR**: Bottle - chip processing fees are slightly stronger, but downstream demand may weaken. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, watching for arbitrage, and option watching [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - After the holiday, polyester's operation is stable, raw material prices fall, and processing fees rise slightly. Downstream transactions are okay, and there is support for replenishment demand [10]. - The start - up rate of polyester downstream in Jiangsu and Zhejiang first decreased and then increased after the holiday. The comprehensive start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 80%, 69%, and 78% respectively, with the latter two remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - The sales of polyester filament after the holiday are weak, and inventory has increased. The average inventory days of polyester filament after the holiday are 24.3 days, an increase of 5.1 days compared to before the holiday [15]. - The low - price transactions of polyester bottle - chips after the holiday are okay, and processing fees are slightly stronger. However, downstream demand may shift from peak to off - peak [19]. - The supply of short - fiber has decreased and demand has increased, and factory inventory has no pressure. But future demand may lack support [22]. 2.2 PX - After the holiday, PX's spot floating price has a back structure, and the monthly spread first widened and then narrowed [23]. - The naphtha cracking spread has weakened, and the profit of long - process PX devices has strengthened. PX's operation rate has slightly decreased this week, and it is expected to first increase and then decrease in Asia this month. The operation rate will remain high in the fourth quarter [25][27]. 2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has been rising, and the basis and monthly spread remain weak [29]. - This week, the operation rate of PTA has increased. New devices are planned to be put into operation, and some devices are planned for maintenance. PTA's processing fee is undervalued [33]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - After the holiday, MEG's port inventory has increased significantly. Recently, the arrival of goods at the port has decreased, and the basis has strengthened in the second half of the week [34]. - The supply of MEG is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to device maintenance [36]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - Price: The prices of PX and its related products in the industrial chain are presented, including PX, naphtha, etc. [47][48]. - Spreads and Profits: There are various spreads and profit data, such as PX - naphtha spreads, disproportionation - blending oil spreads and profits [50][54]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PX in China and Asia are provided, along with the relationship between PX supply and demand [60][61]. 3.2 PTA - Price: The prices of PTA and PX, as well as PTA's processing fees and internal - external spreads are shown [69][70]. - Spreads: The basis and monthly spreads of PTA are presented [73]. - Profits: The profits of PTA in different cost - calculation methods are provided [75]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PTA and polyester are given, along with PTA's inventory situation [79][81]. 3.3 MEG - Price: The prices of MEG and its related raw materials are presented [83]. - Spreads: There are various spreads of MEG, such as internal - external spreads, regional spreads [85][89]. - Profits: The profits of MEG in different production methods are provided [94]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of MEG and its port inventory are given [100][102]. 3.4 Polyester - Profits: The weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, etc. are provided [105]. - Supply: The operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filament, and short - fiber are given [107]. - Inventory: The inventory days of filament, short - fiber, etc. are provided [109]. - Demand: The operating rates of dyeing, weaving, and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as export data and domestic consumption data are presented [112][120]