Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is supported by fundamentals. With the increase in crude oil prices, US cotton has been rising. In China, due to the expected "Golden March and Silver April" in the demand - side and the fast sales progress of cotton, the market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The global cotton supply is expected to be relatively tight, and if consumption increases, there may be a tight - balance situation. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zheng cotton, and avoid chasing high prices. For US cotton, it is likely to fluctuate in a range in the short - term [5][6]. - The cotton yarn market shows signs of recovery. The trading of combed medium - and high - count yarns is good, while that of low - count yarns is relatively weak. The inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, and the loom rate of fabric mills has increased [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased, while CY05 and CY09 contracts increased. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. The spot prices of CCIndex3128B and CY IndexC32S increased, and there were also changes in other spot prices. There were fluctuations in various spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 100.5% of the annual estimated output, with a 4% year - on - year decline. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4% and Pima cotton was 103.8%, both with year - on - year declines. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the previous year. The expected final inspection volume is about 3.05 million tons [4]. - As of March 3, 2026, the net long rate of ICE cotton futures funds was - 22.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 percentage points [4]. - As of March 5, the inventory of ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts was 128,504 bales, down from the previous trading day [4]. Trading Logic - Driven by the sharp rise in crude oil, US cotton has been rising. In China, with the start of downstream production, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is fast. The global cotton supply is expected to be tight, and if consumption increases, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved. It is expected that cotton will be strong in the short - term [5]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, and Zheng cotton shows strong technical performance. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has recovered. Combed medium - and high - count yarns are in good demand, while low - count yarns and air - spun yarns are relatively weak. The inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, and the loom rate of fabric mills has increased. The loom rate index is 51.3%, and the average inventory days of fabric mills are about 33.4 days [9]. Third Part: Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF605 - C - 14600, CF605 - C - 14200, and CF605 - P - 13800 are 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively. The PCR of the main contract of Zheng cotton shows that the trading volume of both call and put options has decreased. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [11][12][13]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the price differences between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in different months, and the price differences between cotton yarn and cotton contracts in different months [14][15][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report on eggs, dated March 9, 2026, written by researcher Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3677, up 39 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3427, up 38; JD09 closed at 3852, up 23. The 01 - 05 spread was 250, up 1; the 05 - 09 spread was -425, up 15; the 09 - 01 spread was 175, down 16 [2] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, up 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, up 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.01. The 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.14, down 0.02; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.26, down 0.01 [2] Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main sales areas, it was 3.18 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin [2][4] - The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2] - The profit per feather of egg - laying chickens was 2.70 yuan, up 4.53 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2433 yuan, up 15 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3172 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.65 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In February, the nationwide inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a 3.4% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [4] - From March 5th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5][8] - As of March 5th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/feather from the previous week [5] - As of March 5th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; in the circulation link, it was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7] Group 4: Trading Logic - Due to good previous profit performance, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season, although the inventory has eased, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Peanut spot prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term due to low supply and weak downstream demand. The peanut futures market is trading on the premise of ample supply of oil - type peanuts and low import prices, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still relatively high. The 05 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating state [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7956, up 94 (1.18%), with a trading volume of 30,189 (up 187.87%) and an open interest of 25,846 (down 16.83%); PK610 closed at 8354, up 100 (1.20%), with a volume of 5,869 (up 911.90%) and an open interest of 5,789 (up 20.73%); PK601 closed at 8402, up 92 (1.09%), with a volume of 328 (up 1212.00%) and an open interest of 322 (up 80.90%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7800, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. Rizhao peanut meal was at 3300 (up 50), Rizhao soybean meal at 3280 (up 210), peanut oil at 14300 (no change), and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil at 9170 (up 500). Import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 with no change, and Senegalese peanuts had a stable price [1] - **Spread**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 446 (down 2), PK04 - PK10 was - 398 (down 6), and PK10 - PK01 was - 48 (up 8) [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices are stable in Henan and Northeast China. The price of imported peanuts is also stable. Some peanut oil mills' purchase prices are stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7200 - 7600 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7820 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil has risen, while peanut oil prices are stable. The by - product Rizhao soybean meal spot price has risen significantly, and the peanut meal is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term [3][4] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: For the 05 peanut contract, it is recommended to go long lightly at low prices [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] - **Options**: Sell the PK605 - P - 7700 option at low prices [9] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill crushing profits, peanut oil prices, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [11][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various industries, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It is mainly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has a significant impact on the supply and price of commodities. The market sentiment is complex, with some products showing upward trends due to supply disruptions, while others are affected by factors such as demand and cost [7][9][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a sharp drop last week, the market showed signs of stabilization. It is expected that the market will likely stabilize this week. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on dips, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The supply - demand contraction led to the official manufacturing PMI in February being weaker than expected. Overseas, the Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the bond market. It is recommended to take profit on the long T - contract positions and short the TS contract on rallies [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The short - term sharp rise in soybean meal mainly reflects macro - influencing factors. It is recommended to be cautious due to the upcoming monthly supply - demand report. The recommended trading strategies are high - volatility for the unilateral market, narrowing the MRM09 spread for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short term with a bottom - oscillating long - term trend. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on the international and Zhengzhou sugar markets, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy call options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The oils are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on the unilateral market, consider selling p59 and y59 spreads on rallies for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [33][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is strong, and the futures price is oscillating strongly. The recommended trading strategies are to take a long - on - dips approach for the 05 - contract corn, widen the 05 - contract corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [37][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle strategy for options [41][43]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on dips for the 05 - contract peanuts, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [44][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][49]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is decreasing, and the price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see for the 5 - contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is oscillating strongly. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [54][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The geopolitical influence is intensifying, and the steel price is oscillating. The recommended trading strategies are to maintain an oscillating - strong trend for the unilateral market, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short coil - screw spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed, and the price is oscillating. The recommended trading strategies are to expect an oscillating trend for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [63][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the risk - reward ratio is decreasing. It is recommended to take partial profit on the long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [69][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral market, wait for the low - price spread between platinum and palladium to go long for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [72][75]. - **Copper**: The concern about stagflation is intensifying, and the copper price is受挫 in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The shipping cost increase affects the ore end. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply. It is recommended to hold long positions [81][82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the aluminum price and is strong. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [84][85]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [87][88]. - **Lead**: It is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell on rallies for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then go long, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then go long, wait and see for arbitrage [97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to go long on dips and short after manufacturers' hedging, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and it is weak in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious about the unilateral market, pay attention to the cash - and - carry opportunity for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [102][104]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating at a high level under macro - influence. It is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [106]. - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the price may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - sentiment change for the unilateral market, wait and see for options [109][110]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The market expects the conflict to be long - term, and shipping companies are adjusting Middle - East routes. It is recommended to be strong in the short term, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping companies' route adjustments, and wait and see for arbitrage [111][113]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The geopolitical conflict disturbs the supply chain. The short - term capacity allocation may limit the rent increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the passage of key straits [113][116]. - **Carbon Emissions**: Domestic trading is sporadic, and the EU carbon price stops falling and rises slightly. In the short term, the domestic carbon price may be supported, but the increase is limited. The EU carbon price may oscillate but is difficult to rise [117][121]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US oil has the largest weekly increase in history. It is recommended to be bullish on the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [123][124]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates sharply under the geopolitical conflict. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical risk is intensifying. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [131][133]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to be oscillating strongly for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [134][135]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk persists, and the price rises with the shutdown in Qatar. It is recommended to buy the TTF fourth - quarter contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136][138]. - **PX & PTA**: PX reduces production preventively. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [139][141]. - **BZ & EB**: Refineries reduce production preventively, affecting the supply of aromatic products. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143][144]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants stop production, and Middle - East imports are affected. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [145][147]. - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost and strengthens. It is recommended to hold long positions, reduce the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [148][150]. - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [151][152]. - **Propylene**: The main raw material price rises. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155]. - **Plastic PP**: LL production decreases month - on - month and slows year - on - year. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, and wait and see for options [156][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is strong. It is recommended to be oscillating strongly for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [159][160]. - **PVC**: It follows the price increase firmly. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the rise, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162][163]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend for the unilateral market, take profit on the short - glass - long - soda - ash spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [164][167]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend for the unilateral market, take profit on the short - glass - long - soda - ash spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [168][171]. - **Methanol**: It continues to rise. It is recommended to operate carefully due to the volatile market [172]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. It is recommended to conduct range trading for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [175][176]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction is slightly relieved. It is recommended to go short on rallies for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [178][179]. - **Logs**: The overseas price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [179][181]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The tire inventory is being reduced after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR 05 contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [182][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire inventory is being reduced, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread, and wait and see for options [187][190].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of zinc mines is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the impact of capital on zinc prices [1] - The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase significantly in March, and the downstream enterprises are expected to resume work after the Lantern Festival, with the operating rate steadily increasing [5] - The geopolitical situation may affect the import of zinc elements from the Middle East, and the increase in overseas natural gas prices may lead to production cuts by European smelters [5] - The trading strategies include going long on dips and buying out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply Side** - In March, northern mines are still in seasonal shutdown, but mines that stopped production during the Spring Festival are resuming production, bringing some incremental supply. The continuous inflow of imported mines supplements the supply, but the shortage pattern of zinc concentrate remains, and the processing fee is expected to remain low [5] - In March, domestic smelters that had holidays or maintenance are resuming production and increasing output. Some high - cost smelters are currently slightly in the red, and the impact of smelter profitability on the operating rate needs to be monitored. The domestic refined zinc production in March is expected to increase significantly month - on - month [5] - **Demand Side** - After the Spring Festival, there are significant differences in terminal consumption. Some enterprises have unfinished orders and are actively resuming production, while others have no new orders and have postponed the resumption of work until after the Lantern Festival [5] - **Inventory** - As of March 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 256,300 tons, an increase of 36,400 tons compared to February 26 and 1,700 tons compared to March 2 [5] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go long on dips [5] - **Options Strategy**: Buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [5] 3.2 Market Data - **Spot Premium**: Information about the basis in major consumption areas and LME cash - 3M [7] - **Absolute Price and Monthly Spread**: Information about the absolute price and monthly spread of Shanghai zinc, as well as trading volume and open interest [13] - **Inventory**: Information about social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and warrants [16][17] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Production** - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 652,400 tons or 5.47%. Overseas production was 8.504 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 540,400 tons or 6.79%, and China's production was 4.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,000 tons or 2.83% [29] - In February, China's zinc concentrate production was 224,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46%. It is expected to reach 284,900 tons in March, a month - on - month increase of 27.02% [29] - **Import** - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% (56,400 physical tons) compared to November and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1% [31] - In December 2025, the top three import source countries were Peru (72,700 physical tons, accounting for 15.7%), Australia (66,300 physical tons, accounting for 14.3%), and South Africa (58,700 physical tons, accounting for 12.7%) [31] - **Raw Material Inventory** - As of February, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters increased by 1.2 days month - on - month to 24.9 days [29][41] - The inventory of zinc concentrate in major domestic ports decreased by 31,000 tons to 349,000 tons [29] - **Processing Fee** - In March, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/ton. On March 6, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 8.37 US dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 15.38 US dollars/dry ton [45] 3.3.2 Global Refined Zinc Production - In 2025, the global refined zinc production was 13.8225 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,800 tons or 1.63%, and the consumption was 13.808 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 182,300 tons or 1.34%. The cumulative surplus was 14,500 tons [49] - In 2025, China's refined zinc production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06% or 399,700 tons, and overseas production was 6.8228 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.54% or 177,900 tons [49] 3.3.3 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Operating Rate** - In February, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 73.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.25%. Among them, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises was 80.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41%; that of medium - scale enterprises was 78.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%; and that of small - scale enterprises was 43.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 20.98% [52] - **Production** - In February, the SMM China refined zinc production decreased by 9.99% month - on - month to 504,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.91%. It is expected to reach 579,900 tons in March, a month - on - month increase of 14.92% and a year - on - year increase of 6.03% [53] - **Import and Export** - In December 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons or 51.94%, and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 304,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.78% [62] - In December 2025, the refined zinc export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The top three import countries were Kazakhstan (6,300 tons, 72.26%), Iran (1,400 tons, 15.96%), and Australia (700 tons, 8.17%). The top three export destinations were Chinese Taipei (13,500 tons, 49.37%), Singapore (3,500 tons, 12.87%), and Hong Kong, China (3,000 tons, 10.97%) [62] 3.3.4 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing Operating Rate** - Information about the comprehensive operating rate of downstream enterprises, galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide operating rates [64] - **Inventory of Primary Processing Enterprises** - Information about the raw material and finished product inventories of galvanizing, zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises [66] - **End - Use Industries** - **Real Estate**: Information about real estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and unsold area, as well as the land transaction premium rate in 100 cities and the daily sales of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [71][74] - **Infrastructure**: Information about the investment trends of major infrastructure sectors, including power, transportation, and water conservancy [82] - **Automobile**: Information about the production of traditional fuel vehicles, new - energy vehicles, and the export of Chinese automobiles [91] - **White Goods**: Information about the monthly production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, after a sharp decline on Tuesday, the stock index showed continuous shrinking - volume oscillations, indicating signs of market stabilization. The Middle - East situation on Monday did not significantly impact the market, but on Tuesday, market risk - aversion sentiment rose, causing a sharp decline in various assets. Only the oil and gas, oil service, and oil transportation sectors in the stock market rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices tumbled. After the decline, the market entered a phase of shrinking - volume consolidation, and the stock index rebounded slightly. Investor caution prevailed, and sector profit - taking was evident. Even the affected oil and gas sectors oscillated in the second half of the week [6]. - On Friday night, crude oil prices rose again, and the U.S. stock market declined, which will have a psychological impact on the A - share market at the beginning of next week. However, the market is likely to stabilize next week. Firstly, the sharp decline has already occurred, and the short - selling momentum in the market has been significantly released. Secondly, the limited decline in the U.S. stock market despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices indicates that the market is not overly worried about inflation caused by rising oil prices. The U.S. stock market is approaching oversold territory, the U.S. dollar index is stable, and the impact on the stock market is limited. Additionally, with the ongoing Two Sessions, positive expectations are increasing, and the market is still expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekend News - At the economic - themed press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress, National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie stated that the expected GDP increment this year will exceed 6 trillion yuan; by the end of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the scale of artificial - intelligence - related industries will grow to over 10 trillion yuan; a national - level merger and acquisition fund will be established; and the output value of six emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine is expected to expand to over 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [3]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said that this year's fiscal - fund scale arrangements have reached "new highs" in three aspects; in 2026, fiscal policy will continue to adhere to a more proactive tone; the central government has allocated 100 billion yuan to support the coordination of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand; a new policy tool for the coordination of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand has been innovatively established, targeting household consumption and private investment; and the 100 - billion - level special funds for the coordination of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand can benefit trillions of yuan in credit [3]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao mentioned in the press conference that the special action to boost consumption will be deeply implemented; pilot opening - up in areas such as value - added telecommunications, biotechnology, and foreign - wholly - owned hospitals will be promoted; Chinese online dramas account for 90% of the global market revenue; and more incremental policies such as the 2.0 version of tax - free shopping for outbound travelers will be introduced [3]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used; China has no need or intention to gain trade - competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation; and policy tools to support the capital market will be effectively implemented to support the role of Central Huijin as a quasi - stabilization fund [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Several Provisions on the Supervision of Short - term Trading", clarifying the calculation standards for determining shareholding and trading time points, including calculating the shareholding ratio of major shareholders with over 5% according to the combined shares of the same listed company or New Third - Board listed company issued or listed and publicly traded at home and abroad. It also specified 13 exemption scenarios for short - term trading [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Buy on dips [6]. - Arbitrage: IM long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage [6]. - Options: Bull spread [6]. 3.3 A - share Index Performance - Affected by the Middle - East situation, on March 3, after a sharp decline, the stock index stabilized. Large - cap indices were more resilient. The CSI 300 fell 1.07%, the SSE 50 fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 fell 3.64% [18]. 3.4 A - share Trading Volume - This week, A - share market trading volume first soared and then declined. Trading volume on Monday and Tuesday continuously exceeded 3 trillion yuan, then quickly dropped and remained around 2.3 trillion yuan. The total trading volume for the week was 13 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 8% compared to last week. The trading - volume proportion of each index remained generally stable. During the sharp decline, the trading - volume proportions of the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices significantly increased, demonstrating their liquidity advantages [23]. 3.5 A - share Stock Price Movements - At the beginning of this week, the rise and fall of individual stocks changed drastically, first falling across the board and then rebounding in large numbers. Due to market fluctuations, the proportion of limit - up and limit - down stocks also fluctuated significantly. On March 3, the proportion of limit - down stocks reached 1.6%, and on March 4, the proportion of limit - up stocks was only 0.8% [28]. 3.6 A - share Margin Trading - This week, the margin - trading balance in the A - share market remained generally stable at around 2.63 trillion yuan, and the ratio of margin - trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization remained at 2.55%. On March 4, the net margin repayment reached 22.5 billion yuan, continued on Thursday, and turned into net buying on Friday. The proportion of margin - trading purchases in A - share trading volume continued to decline to around 9%, indicating low market enthusiasm [29]. 3.7 A - share Industry Performance - The report presents the weekly rise - and - fall rates, industry popularity, and capital flow of A - share industries, but specific industry names are not provided. The weekly rise - and - fall rates range from - 8.0% to 8.1%, and the total popularity change rate ranges from - 100% to 269% [36][38]. 3.8 A - share Market Financing - The report shows the IPO financing and private placement financing in the A - share market, but specific data are presented in graphs, and no detailed numerical descriptions are provided [43]. 3.9 Stock - Index Futures Basis Changes - The basis of stock - index futures continued to decline, and the trading volume and open interest changed synchronously with the trading volume of the underlying assets, first increasing and then decreasing [6]. 3.10 Stock - Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures changed with the trading volume of the underlying assets, first increasing and then decreasing. Specific data for different contracts (IM, IC, IF, IH) are presented in graphs [50]. 3.11 Comparison of Stock - Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The report presents the comparison of trading volume between stock - index futures and spot markets for different contracts (IM, IC, IF, IH) through graphs, but no detailed numerical descriptions are provided [52]. 3.12 Stock - Index Futures Main - Contract Open Interest - The report shows the net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of stock - index futures main contracts through graphs, but no detailed numerical descriptions are provided [55][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a rapid shift from "safe-haven" to liquidity drag last week, with the trading focus shifting from pure geopolitical conflict speculation to pricing of "economic recession" and "inflation stickiness." Geopolitical factors, economic data, and central bank policies have all influenced the prices of gold and silver, leading to a high-level oscillation pattern for both metals [4]. - The U.S. economy shows signs of deceleration, with GDP growth slowing, the job market cooling unexpectedly, and inflation remaining moderately stable. The Federal Reserve has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and initiated a technical expansion, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral observation" [24][32][39]. - In the gold market, global supply increased slightly in 2025, while demand reached a record high, driven by investment and central bank purchases. The silver market has a relatively stable supply, and demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially in the photovoltaic sector. The supply-demand gap has been narrowing, and inventory has started to rebound [43][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The precious metals market was affected by geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and central bank policies. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell, with London gold closing down 2% for the week at $5,172 per ounce, and London silver closing down 9.9% at $84.5 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also declined [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Conservative investors are advised to wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear, while aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **U.S. Economic Growth**: The U.S. GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, mainly due to the government shutdown. Consumer spending growth also slowed, and investment performance was mixed. Retail sales in January were lower than expected, affected by cold weather and falling oil prices [24][25][26]. - **Employment Market**: The U.S. job market cooled unexpectedly in February, with non-farm payrolls decreasing by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The decline in private - sector employment and manufacturing jobs was significant, especially in the healthcare industry [32]. - **Inflation**: U.S. inflation was generally moderate in January, with the CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year. Energy prices and some commodity prices contributed to the decline in inflation, but core inflation remained sticky. However, the energy price surge caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict may change the inflation outlook [36]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve stopped shrinking its balance sheet and initiated a technical expansion, indicating a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral observation" [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, global gold supply increased by 0.6% to 5,002 tons, and demand increased by 7.8% to 4,999.4 tons, reaching a record high. Investment demand and central bank purchases were the main drivers of demand growth, while jewelry demand declined [43]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, global central banks have been actively buying gold. In 2025, central bank gold purchases reached 863 tons. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been actively involved in gold purchases for various reasons [53]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: The global silver supply increased by 2% in 2024 and is expected to continue growing in 2025. Demand is mainly from industrial use, especially in the photovoltaic sector. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, and inventory has started to rebound [55]. - **Silver Inventory**: LBMA inventory decreased significantly in 2022 - 2024, and in 2025, the inventory situation in different regions changed due to market factors. The overall supply shortage situation has not been reversed [62]. - **Silver ETF Demand**: The total global silver ETF holdings are generally at a high level, but have declined recently with the price correction. The overseas silver leasing rate has fluctuated, and the domestic silver supply - demand situation remains tight [64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel is mainly influenced by macro - risks. In the short - term, macro factors dominate, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and be cautious. For nickel trading, it is in a high - level oscillation, and one can buy after the macro sentiment stabilizes. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For stainless steel trading, it also shows high - level oscillation, and one can buy after the macro sentiment stabilizes, while arbitrage should be put on hold for the time being [6][7][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel**: The global visible inventory of nickel reached 374,000 tons, increasing by 7,573 tons this week. Among them, the domestic social inventory increased by 7,999 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 426 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [17] - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of stainless steel started to decline, and the inventory of 300 - series and 400 - series was mainly destocked, which was in line with the seasonal characteristics after the Spring Festival resumption of work [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January 2026, the refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and continue to reach a new high with the ramping up of new production capacity. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 24,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 452,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45%. It is estimated that the supply in January 2026 increased by 22% year - on - year [26] - **Demand**: The cumulative consumption of pure nickel in 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. In January 2026, it decreased by 2% year - on - year. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and the overall consumption slowed down [30] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Indonesian Nickel Ore**: The quota of Indonesian nickel ore is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia imported about 220,000 tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a 63% month - on - month decrease and a 94.77% year - on - year increase. In March 2026, the first - round domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased by 0.1 to $30.24 per wet ton, but the premium is expected to rise [32] - **NPI**: NPI prices increased following the rise of nickel ore prices. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is on the rise, and the import volume of nickel iron in China is also relatively large [33][35][36] - **Chromium - based Materials**: Chromium ore prices rebounded due to the 10% tax on chromium - based product exports in Zimbabwe starting from January 1, 2026. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in March 2026 was flat month - on - month [44] - **Profit**: The immediate profit of steel mills is in a loss state. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is about 14,850 yuan per ton, and the integrated cost reaches 14,350 yuan per ton [46] - **Supply**: It is estimated by Steel Union that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 4.506 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In February, production decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival maintenance. In 2025, China's total stainless steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, remaining flat year - on - year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, an 11% year - on - year increase [57] - **Demand**: Shipbuilding is still in a boom cycle, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, the growth rate of other terminal fields is not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [59] 3.2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In January 2026, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, with year - on - year increases of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. The production of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 938,000, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease, and the retail penetration rate was 38.6%. The cumulative production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, and it is expected to reach the January level in March [65] - **Global Market**: In 2025, the cumulative global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. In Europe, the cumulative sales in 2025 increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, and in January 2026, it increased by 22% year - on - year. In the United States, the cumulative sales in 2025 decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million, and in January 2026, it decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 increased by 103% year - on - year to 2.583 million, and in January 2026, it increased by 101% year - on - year [72] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2025, the production of nickel sulfate decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. In 2026, government subsidies are inclined to mid - and high - end new - energy vehicles, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. The future ternary market needs high - nickel materials to break through the energy - density bottleneck [74] - **Intermediate Products**: The production of MHP and high - ice nickel is expected to increase. The new MHP production capacity in 2026 will exceed 400,000 tons, while the new high - ice nickel production capacity is only 83,000 tons. It is estimated that the two together can cover the increase in refined nickel and nickel sulfate, about 140,000 - 150,000 nickel tons [77] 3.3 March Supply - Demand Outlook - In mid - to late March, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally. If inventory destocking can be observed in the second half of March, the downward support for nickel and stainless steel prices will be stronger [7][10]

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周烧碱主力合约连续涨停。本轮上涨是此前长周期下跌导致空头集中，叠加突发性事件及海外装置减产消息催化，属于情绪性反 转。基本面来看，供应端开工维持高位，产量同比增长，库存处于同期高位，去库压力较大；需求端氧化铝需求承压，非铝需求稳健 但增量有限，出口增速预计放缓，难以消化供应增量。预期向现货传导仍需时间，短期期货仍有冲高惯性，但上涨持续性不足。预计 下周期价将迎来回调，操作上建议谨慎追高、灵活应对，重点关注库存去化速度及下游需求恢复情况。 【策略】 GALAXY FUTURES 2 1.单边：烧碱偏强 2.套利：暂时观望； 3.期权：暂时观望。(观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据) 目录 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1/1 2/ ...

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——产量历史高位运行 GALAXY FUTURES 2 单位：万吨 纯碱周度产量 联碱法、氨碱法周度产量 单位：万吨 天然碱法周度产量 单位：万吨 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 天然碱产量 15 20 25 30 35 40 23-03-03 23-05-03 23-07-03 23-09-03 23-11-03 24-01-03 24-03-03 24-05-03 24-07-03 24-09-03 24-11-03 25-01-03 25-03-03 25-05-03 25-07-03 25-09-03 25-11-03 26-01-03 26-03-03 联碱产量 氨碱产量 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 第53 周 第51 周 第49 周 第47 周 第45 周 第43 周 第41 周 第39 周 第37 周 第35 周 第33 周 第31 周 ...