Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support, but demand pressure persists. The market needs more driving factors to break the current situation. Suggestions include maintaining a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trades, holding long positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: Total steel production is starting to decline. The daily average of hot - metal from 247 blast furnaces has dropped below 240 million tons, and the overall steel production has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel is 51 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking. Although demand has improved with the cooling weather, downstream construction sites face difficulties in payment collection, and the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, though it has improved. The automobile industry shows strong growth but may face a decline in demand later, and the production of white goods in October is expected to decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel products are generally in the process of destocking. Rebar has seen a faster destocking rate, and hot - rolled coil has also started to destock [4]. - **Outlook**: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support due to factors such as rising coal prices, but demand pressure persists. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm general coil) in Shanghai is 3310 yuan/ton (+40), and the summary price of rebar (HRB400: 20mm) in Shanghai is 3240 yuan/ton (-). The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3200 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of rebar in Beijing is 3170 yuan/ton (+10) [11]. - **Profit**: Short - process steelmaking profits have increased, but there is a slight reduction in production. Long - process steelmaking is still in a loss state, but the loss has been slightly reduced. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace is - 231.69 yuan (+15.3), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 67 yuan (+15) [4][26]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real - Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing also declined [28]. - **Industrial Production Data**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the production of some industrial products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., showed different trends of increase or decrease [28]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the growth rates of real - estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment all declined [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 million tons (-1.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 33% (-0.2). The small - sample output of rebar is 207.07 million tons (+5.91), and the small - sample output of hot - rolled coil is 322.46 million tons (+0.62) [4][57]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 226.01 million tons (+8.58), and the small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 326.73 million tons (+10.39). The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking, but the demand pressure is still high [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory has decreased by 18.59 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 0.93 million tons. The overall steel inventory has decreased by 27.41 million tons [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping long - term contract season has gradually started. With the improvement of long - term contract cargo volume of shipping companies, the spot freight rate stopped falling and rebounded in October. The freight rate is expected to continue to rise from November to December [3][4][153]. - The supply and demand situation shows that the cargo volume in October is in the off - season, and the shipping volume is expected to improve from November to December. The supply side has seen additional blank sailings by mainstream shipping companies [4][153]. - Sino - US ship sanctions have begun to levy port fees, which are expected to increase costs and may cause short - term supply chain disruptions [4][154]. - The progress of the cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation sentiment has eased. Attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation progress [4][154]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the container shipping market was still in the off - season. Affected by factors such as the long - term contract season, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East, and the price adjustment of some shipping companies, the EC disk showed an overall volatile trend. By the end of October, with the improvement of long - term contract filling, the freight rate stabilized and rebounded, and the EC disk gradually strengthened [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Shipping Company Cargo Collection and Freight Rate - The long - term contract season has arrived, and the spot freight rate has gradually stabilized and rebounded. However, the difference in cargo collection among shipping companies has led to a spread of 500 - 600 US dollars/FEU between mainstream shipping companies. The OA alliance has a good cargo collection situation, and the spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise [18]. - In October, the average value of SCFI decreased compared with September and last October. As of October 17, the SCFI comprehensive freight rate index increased compared with the previous period but decreased compared with the same period last year [19]. - The trans - Atlantic route capacity has decreased. In October, the average daily container ship capacity deployment in Europe decreased by 0.21% compared with the previous month, and the trans - Atlantic decreased by 3.14% [38]. - In October, the container ship rental market was still hot, and the average daily rent continued to rise. The average daily profit of container ships in October was 46,521 US dollars/day, a slight increase from September [42]. 3.2.2 Supply and Idle Capacity - In September, the global container new - ship delivery volume decreased by 23.8% month - on - month and 22.6% year - on - year. The new order volume increased by 31.9% month - on - month but decreased by 16% year - on - year. It is expected that there will be a new ship delivery peak starting from 2026 [47]. - In October, the global container idle capacity increased significantly compared with the previous month. As of October 19, 2025, the global container idle capacity was 815,000 TEU, an increase of 57.7% compared with the same period last month [65]. 3.2.3 Route and Port Conditions - As of October 21, 2025, there were 267 container ships on the European and Mediterranean routes detouring, accounting for about 70%. The cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and it will take time for shipping companies to resume navigation [80]. - In October, there were frequent strikes in Nordic ports, which affected port operations and caused serious ship congestion. As of October 20, the global container port congestion index increased slightly compared with September [88][89]. - China has taken measures to levy special port fees on US ships, and some ships are trying to avoid the fees. The port fees on the Sino - US route will increase, and the single - box cost of container ships will also increase [121][124]. 3.2.4 Trade and Economic Situation - In September, China's exports showed strong resilience, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. China actively diversified its markets, and the export of mechanical and electrical products maintained an advantage [126][127]. - In September, the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, showing a weak manufacturing situation. The economic trends of Germany and France were different [144]. - In August 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe increased year - on - year, while that to North America decreased. The shipping volume from Asia to the world and the global container shipping volume also showed different trends [146]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The freight rate is expected to continue to rise from November to December. The supply side has additional blank sailings, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm [153][154]. - Strategy recommendations include continuing to hold long positions in EC2512 and considering taking profits at high levels for the 2 - 4 positive spread [7][154].

吉林玉米开始上市 盘面底部震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米预计继续下调单产，但是产量处于高位，美玉米本周420美分/蒲附近震荡，短期美玉米窄幅震荡，预计美玉米12合约400美分/蒲支撑较强。目 前市场焦点仍然是吉林玉米卖粮节奏，预计11月初吉林玉米有一波卖压。短期东北玉米卖压减轻，但玉米现货反弹空间有限，华北玉米上量增加，玉米现货持续 探底。市场预期接下来玉米低点，北港收购价在2070元/吨附近。预计01玉米期货处于底部震荡，05预期仍偏强震荡。 淀 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with a focus on a bottom - weakening oscillation approach. It is recommended to try selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy and conduct a high - price reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread [5][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Try selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general - quality peanuts in Henan is stable, while in the Northeast it has slightly declined. The price of general - quality peanuts in Henan is around 4.2 yuan per jin. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan per ton and Senegalese oil - type peanuts at 7800 yuan per ton. The import volume has significantly decreased. The oil mill operating rate has increased, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. However, the profit from oil mill crushing has decreased. Downstream consumption remains weak, the peanut inventory in oil mills has increased, and the peanut oil inventory continues to rise. The market expects the peanut production to be the same as last year, but due to the previous rainfall, the peanut quality has declined. Oil mills have not carried out large - scale purchases, the peanut spot is relatively weak, the 01 - contract peanut has oscillated and declined this week, and the 1 - 4 spread is weak [6]. - **Strategy**: The peanut market is in a weak and volatile state, with a bottom - weakening oscillation mindset [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Conduct a high - price reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Price - **Domestic Peanuts**: The price of peanuts in Henan is stable, while in the Northeast it is weak. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 4.1 yuan per jin, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.2 yuan per jin, also stable compared to last week. The price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.1 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin compared to last week. The price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.1 yuan per jin, stable compared to last week. The trading volume of general - quality peanuts is average, and the overall price is weak [11]. - **Oil Mill Peanuts**: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, and most oil mills have stopped purchasing. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7800 - 7900 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11]. - **Imported Peanuts**: The price of new - season Sudan peanuts is 8600 yuan per ton, and the price of Senegalese oil - type peanuts is 7800 yuan per ton, both stable compared to last week [11]. Domestic Demand - **Oil Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of oil mills has decreased. As of October 23, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 7.86%, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the previous week [15]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 14,800 tons, an increase of 6200 tons compared to last week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 35,000 tons, an increase of 3300 tons compared to last week. The peanut oil inventory is 39,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to last week [15]. Pressing Profit - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 237 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13 yuan per ton compared to last week [19]. - **Peanut Oil Price**: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, also stable compared to last week [19]. - **Peanut Meal**: Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is weak. This week, it is 3200 yuan per ton, remaining the same as last week [19]. Basis and Spread - **Spread**: This week, due to the downward oscillation of the 01 - contract peanut, the 1 - 4 spread of peanuts is weak, stabilizing around - 130 yuan [26]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: It has declined [26]. Peanut Import - **Peanut Kernel Import**: In September, the import volume of peanut kernels was 34,000 tons. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 164,000 tons, a decrease of 71% compared to the same period last year [30]. - **Peanut Kernel Export**: In September, the export volume of peanut kernels was 10,000 tons. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 115,000 tons, an increase of 24% compared to the same period last year [30]. - **Peanut Oil Import**: In September, the import volume of peanut oil was 36,000 tons. From January to September, the cumulative import volume of peanut oil was 291,000 tons, an increase of 47% compared to the same period last year [30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The document mainly presents various data charts, including the price trends of peanuts, the operating rate of oil mills, inventory data, pressing profit data, basis and spread data, and import and export data. Specific numerical data and trends are described in the above - mentioned core logic analysis section.

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found Summary by Directory Second Part: Q2 Global Iron Ore Production and Sales Combing - The report presents multiple graphs related to the production and sales of four major global mining companies including VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG [5][16][27][31] - For VALE, there are graphs showing production and sales statistics, sales by variety, production and sales of the S11D mining area, and production share by region [6][12] - For Rio Tinto, graphs display overall production and sales, production and sales of PB powder, and production and sales shares by variety [16][21] - For BHP, there are graphs about production and sales and production share by mining area [27] - For FMG, graphs show production and sales and the production of the Iron Bridge project [31]

低估值带动反弹 但供需压力仍存 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 227/82/4 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 期权：逢高卖出虚值跨式组合。 2 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端表现分化，硅铁产量小幅回升，锰硅产量略有回落，尽管近期合金企业利润不佳，但产量仍未出现趋势性下行， 产量绝对值量仍维持高位。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量继续下降，且降幅有所加大。同时，尽管上周钢联样本钢材库存小幅下 降，但10月整体去库情况并不理想，导致钢厂利润仍在恶化，原料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Status**: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - **Market Status**: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Status**: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Status**: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - **Market Status**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - **Strategy**: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - **Market Status**: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - **Market Status**: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - **Market Status**: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Status**: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Status**: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - **Strategy**: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Status**: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - **Market Status**: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - **Market Status**: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - **Strategy**: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Status**: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - **Strategy**: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - **Market Status**: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - **Market Status**: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - **Strategy**: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Status**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Status**: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Status**: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - **Market Status**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - **Market Status**: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - **Market Status**: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - **Market Status**: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Status**: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - **Strategy**: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - **Market Status**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the text.

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,535, 13,575, and 13,740 respectively, with the price of CF01 down 5, CF05 down 25, and CF09 down 30. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 19,760, 19,745, and 20,085 respectively, with the price of CY01 down 15, CY05 down 50, and CY09 unchanged [3]. - The CCIndex3128B spot price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; the CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30. The Cot A price was 75.65 cents/pound, and the FCY IndexC33S was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 [3]. - The 1 - 5 - month cotton spread was -40, up 20; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -165, up 5; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 205, down 25. The 1 - 5 - month棉纱 spread was 15, up 35; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -340, down 20,135; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 325, up 20,100 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,225, down 10; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,170, down 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,345, up 20,115. The 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,317, down 218; the sliding - duty internal and external cotton spread was 493, down 120; the internal and external yarn spread was -743, up 17 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of October 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock cotton industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the end of last month. The available cotton inventory was 971,200 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days from the end of last month, and the grey fabric inventory was 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days from the end of last month [6]. - Since the new cotton acquisition started on September 26, 24 cotton acquisition and processing enterprises in Hutubi County had acquired 242,000 tons of seed cotton as of October 10, and the acquisition was expected to be completed by early December. As of mid - October, 35 cotton processing enterprises in Shaya County had acquired 215,000 tons of seed cotton, achieving the expected acquisition volume, with an average daily acquisition volume of over 20,000 tons [6]. - During the holiday, as new flowers entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the Xinjiang cotton output was high and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition was average, with no large - scale rush for acquisition. The acquisition price in some markets was around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new flowers, it was expected that there would be certain selling and hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season performance of the demand side was average. Although the downstream demand had slightly improved, the improvement range was relatively limited, so the peak season performance this year was not expected to be very prominent, and the peak season demand was expected to have a relatively limited boosting effect on the market [7]. - The trading strategies were as follows: for unilateral trading, it was expected that the future trend of US cotton would mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton was also expected to show a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, it was recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated steadily, the hedging pressure gradually emerged, and the cotton spot price was stable with a slight increase. However, due to the expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines, mainly replenishing raw materials on a just - in - time basis. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market slightly recovered, with small orders selling well, but traders were still cautious in purchasing. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, some manufacturers continued to adjust their quotes, and the pure cotton yarn price slightly recovered. However, due to the poor orders of weaving factories, the actual transaction price did not change much. There was little change in inventory, and the inventory of some spinning mills in the inland slightly increased. It was necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand. In addition, factors such as the China - US presidential meeting and the Fed's possible interest rate cut at the end of the month might also have an impact on external demand [8]. - The current ex - works price of Xinjiang - produced combed compact siro - spun R/JC 50/50 50S was around 25,000 yuan/ton, and the ex - works price of high - grade ring - spun C32S was 21,200 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Real - order negotiations were available [10]. - Cotton weaving factories generally reported that the recent market was significantly worse than in September. Currently, they were in the inventory accumulation stage, and there were discounts on the actual transaction price of grey fabrics. The in - production orders were mainly for medium - and thick - type fabrics, but the profit was poor, and there were few sampling orders for thin - type fabrics. Since the new downstream orders were mainly small and urgent orders, and large orders were hard to find, weaving factories mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis [10]. Group 3: Options - On October 21, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 247, up 32.1%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 45, down 29.7%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 15, down 42.3%. The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 8.542, with the volatility slightly decreasing compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7255, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6021. Today, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. The option trading strategy was to wait and see [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains high, leading to short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3147, down 22 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3328, down 11; JD09 closed at 3777, down 51 [3]. - 01 - 05 spread closed at - 181, down 11; 05 - 09 spread closed at - 449, up 40; 09 - 01 spread closed at 630, down 29 [3]. - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.01 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price in the production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [3]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [3]. - The profit per chicken was - 4.68 yuan, down 0.01 from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the main sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable [6]. - In September, the number of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [7]. - From October 16th to the week, the number of culled hens in the main production area was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - As of October 17th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the average inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, resulting in short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend [9]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [10].