电解铝 ：宏观预期反复 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：特朗普对格陵兰岛先鹰后鸽的"TACO"表态对市场影响明显，美联储下一任主席及降息预期仍存分歧、地缘政治风险叠加去美元 化对有色金属仍存影响。周中日本长期国债市场因政策超预期而遭遇"疯狂"抛售、但随着日本大型金融机构释放明确增持信号，抛售压 力显著缓和，叠加美国通胀指标符合预期，风险偏好得到提振。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，安哥拉新项目如期投产，电解铝全球供给端刚性预期明显。前期负基差较大叠加铝棒产量下降共同带动短 期铸锭增加。 ◼ 产业需求：价格回调企稳后，需求端存在一定补库操作。目前全球的短缺仍主要体现在海外，一季度日本的铝溢价最终确定为每吨195 ...

钢材：需求边际转弱，节前钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量199.55万吨（+9.25），热卷小样本产量305.41万吨（-2.95）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均228.1万吨（+0.09），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.4%（-1.6）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3410 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-141.6元/吨左右，谷电成本3245（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +23元/吨。近期随着废钢价格的上升，电炉成本持续增加，导致电炉利润下滑，本周铁水小幅复产，电炉产能利用率 有所下滑，废钢日耗在50.82万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续 ...

| 第一章综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 第二章核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXYFUTURES 1 白糖周报：印度糖产增泰国减 国际糖底部震荡 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，巴西甘蔗预计将逐渐进入收榨阶段，巴西糖供应压力将逐渐缓解，市场近期关注点转移到北半球，目前北半球糖产大部分也处于增产周期。 目前印度双周产量较高，增产可能会超预期，给国际糖价以悲观影响。但是由于糖价已经跌至低位且目前大宗商品偏强，因此预计美糖价格短期底部 震荡走势。 国内市场，目前国内白糖正处于压榨高峰期，且本榨季国内白糖产量大概率将增加且增幅不小，因此供应端有一定压力。此外前两天海关公布的数据 显示，2025年我国累计进口食糖491.88万吨，同比增加56.22万吨，2025年食糖进口量超预期，大量进口糖也给国内市场以压力。供应端压力明显， 短期内预计郑糖仍将维持下跌趋势。但是考虑目前糖价已经偏低，且盘面价格已经跌破国内大部分榨糖企业的成本线，而国际糖下方的支撑作用 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Peanut Prices of General Goods Are Strong, and Peanut Futures Rebound from the Bottom" [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has increased, the price of general peanuts in Henan is strong, the price of peanuts in Shandong is stable, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China has risen. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, and the profit from oil extraction is stable. However, downstream consumption remains weak, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills has increased. It is recommended to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option strategy, short - sell 03 peanuts at high prices, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for the spread between months [5][6]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option strategy [5] - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is around 3.65 yuan per catty, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China is around 4.65 yuan per catty. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan per ton, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The market expects the opening of imports from Senegal, with a rumored import price of 7400 yuan per ton. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit from oil extraction in oil mills is stable. Downstream consumption remains weak, the inventory of peanuts in oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market is trading on the increase in the spot price of peanuts. The price difference between peanuts in Northeast China and Henan remains high, but there is an abundant supply of oil - used peanuts in Henan. The spot price of peanuts in Northeast China has rebounded, the price of peanuts from Senegal is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is currently between 7900 - 8000 yuan per ton, and the futures price is basically the same as the cost of warehouse receipts. The willingness to take delivery of 03 peanut warehouse receipts is weak. This week, the 03 peanut futures have rebounded, and the spread between 3 - 5 has fluctuated within a narrow range [6] - **Strategy**: Short - sell 03 peanuts at high prices [6] - **Spread between Months**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Prices - **Domestic Peanuts**: The price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China has risen. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.5 yuan per catty, remaining stable compared to last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.7 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.65 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.05 yuan per catty compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.7 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.05 yuan per catty compared to last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the price of peanuts in Henan is relatively stable [11] - **Oil Mill Oil - Used Peanuts**: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, with the basic purchase price ranging from 6900 - 7900 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11] - **Imported Peanuts**: The price of new Sudanese peanuts is 8600 yuan per ton, and the price of Indian 50/60 peanuts is reported at 8000 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11] Domestic Demand - **Oil Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of January 22, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 47.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.45% [15] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 5300 tons compared to last week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 177,400 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons compared to last week. The peanut oil inventory is 49,600 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to last week [15] Pressing Profit - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 190 yuan per ton, remaining the same as last week (Steel Union data) [19] - **Peanut Oil Price**: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,400 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,300 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [19] - **Peanut Meal**: Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable. This week, it is 3100 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [19] Basis and Spread between Months - **Spread between Months**: This week, due to the decline in the price of 05 peanuts, the spread between 5 - 10 peanuts is weak, stabilizing around - 330 yuan [26] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The basis has declined [26] Peanut Imports - **Peanut Kernel Imports**: In December, the import volume of peanut kernels was 25,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 252,000 tons, a 66% decrease compared to the same period last year [30] - **Peanut Kernel Exports**: In December, the export volume of peanut kernels was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was 212,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year [30] - **Peanut Oil Imports**: In December, the import volume of peanut oil was 37,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, a 58% increase compared to last year [30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, urea continues its oscillating pattern with low - price procurement. Attention should be paid to external disturbances. Mainstream factory ex - factory prices in most regions are stable, but market sentiment is low and trading is weak. Industrial compound fertilizer开工率 has increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories are high, and grass - roots orders are scarce. Agricultural procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and traders are starting to sell due to fear of high prices. New orders are weak [4]. - Domestic gas - head maintenance devices have partially returned, and the daily output has rebounded to over 200,000 tons, running at a high level. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a total counter - offer of around 960,000 tons from the east and west coasts. Although international prices have been rising, the domestic - international price difference is still large, but there are no new domestic quotas, so the overall impact is limited [4]. - The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central Plains and Northeast regions is stable. Compound fertilizer enterprises that stopped production due to environmental protection in Hebei and Henan have resumed production, and enterprises with low raw material inventories are purchasing at low prices. The procurement progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the procurement intensity will gradually slow down [4]. - As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance increases, traders sell due to fear of high prices, agricultural procurement enthusiasm cools down, factory orders weaken, and ex - factory quotes start to decline. The futures price decline further cools the spot market sentiment. Although the overall order - receiving situation has improved after the urea manufacturers lower the ex - factory quotes, downstream customers in high - price sales areas still resist. In the short term, it will continue to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [4]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply - National**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 95.30%, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 54.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. There were 3 new coal - based device shutdowns and 4 coal - based enterprise shutdown devices resumed production during the period [5]. - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 97.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The Ming Shui device had a slight production reduction, and other enterprises' production was basically normal [5]. - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 4th week of 2026 (20260116 - 0122), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.65%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points from the previous week [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: From 20260116 - 0122, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle was 42.96%, a week - on - week increase of 2.88 percentage points [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,840 tons, an increase of 460 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 33.33% [5]. - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: From 20260116 - 20260123, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Downstream factories and traders mainly purchase low - price goods for rigid demand and resist price increases [5]. - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of January 21, 2026, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.88 days, a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous cycle, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price increased, and the urea production profit expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [5]

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report on methanol, dated January 23, 2026, from the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1][8][10] Market Review - The futures market saw a significant rally, closing at 2298 (+66/+2.96%) [3] - In the spot market, prices varied by region, with production areas having prices ranging from 1770 - 2020 yuan/ton, consumption areas from 2020 - 2120 yuan/ton, and ports from 2220 - 2260 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - From January 17 - 23, 2026, international methanol production was 887,359 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.83%, up 1.34% from last week. The main change was the shutdown of Petronas' No. 3 plant [4] Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, domestic supply is abundant with high and stable domestic开工率. The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian plants were shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian开工率 decreased, and the overall external market开工率 was low. The import forecast for January was about 120 tons, and for February it was revised up to about 80 tons [5] - Demand side: MTO装置开工率 dropped significantly, with many large - scale MTO plants shutting down or operating at partial capacity [5] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased due to reduced imports from shipping closures, while inland enterprise inventories fluctuated slightly [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short at high levels (monitor Middle East situation) [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [7] Related Charts - The charts show data on methanol port inventories, enterprise inventories, and various开工率 from 2023 - 2026 [8][11]

地缘+化工板块推动，甲醇偏强运行 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2026年1月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月22日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率大幅下滑，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置停车；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配 套60万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年MTO装置停车；天津渤化60万吨/年（MTO） 装置负荷7成；宁波富德60万吨/年DMTO装置停车。库存方面，封航进口到港略 ...

尿素日报 【市场回顾】 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 23 日 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1788（+7/+0.39%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价部分提涨，收单转弱，河南出厂报 1690-1700 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1710-1730 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1710-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1620-1670 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1550-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 23 日，尿素行业日产 20.48 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.03；较去年同 期增加 1.46 万吨；今日开工率 87.10%，较去年同期 87.00%回升 2.07%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价整体平稳，市场情绪降温，成交转弱，厂家收单稀少。山东地区主 流出厂报价坚挺，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料库存充裕，成品库 存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货，新单成交转 弱，省内尿素厂收单零星，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主；河南地区市场情绪一 般，出厂报价跟涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn supply is abundant. In the short - term, the US corn 03 contract will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. Currently, corn in Northeast China is gradually coming to market, and the supply in North China is also increasing. There will still be a peak of grain sales at the end of January. The rebound of corn spot is limited, and corn will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, corn is relatively stable, the futures price is at par with the spot price, and the rebound space of 03 corn is limited. Starch will also be relatively stable [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the yield per unit and area of US corn in January. This week, US corn fluctuated narrowly, digesting the negative news. It is expected that the 03 contract of US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that the spot will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the supply of corn in Northeast China has increased, but the downstream has replenished inventory due to rigid demand, and the port inventory is still low, so the price of Northeast corn has risen slightly. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price is relatively stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will continue to increase next week. It is expected that the supply in the northern port will increase in the short - term, and the purchase price will be relatively stable. The 03 corn will fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has increased, and the starch inventory has decreased, but it is still high. The spot price of corn has risen, and the downstream is still stocking up recently, so the spot price of starch has also risen. The profit of starch factories in North China is relatively stable. In the later stage, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch will be relatively stable. It is expected that the 03 corn starch will follow the high - level fluctuation of corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - One - sided: Try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents per bushel. Try to short 03 corn above 2300 [5]. - Arbitrage: Carry out a reverse spread of 3 - 5 starch [5]. - Options: Adopt a strategy of accumulating put options for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - US Corn - **Yield Increase and Bottom - Level Fluctuation**: In January, the USDA's report increased the yield per unit and area of US corn. The yield per unit was increased from 186 bushels per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, US corn fluctuated at the bottom, and the 03 contract fluctuated around 420 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff of US corn is 11%, and that of US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn in February is around 2170 yuan per ton, with good import profit. As of January 22, the price at Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan per ton, and the cost of Brazilian corn arriving in March is 2127 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 323 yuan per ton [9]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position Increase and Ethanol Production Increase**: As of January 13, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 33,000 lots, and the net short position increased. The ethanol production in the United States increased significantly. The 03 contract of US corn fluctuated at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises**: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than the same period last year. As of January 22, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 31.32 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From January 15 to January 21, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1381,500 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has risen, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. As of January 14, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4% [19][20]. - **Port Inventory**: The corn inventory in the northern ports has increased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has decreased. As of January 16, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.497 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 389,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 306,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 tons; the foreign trade inventory was 219,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the imported barley was 694,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; the total grain inventory was 1.452 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress**: The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 56%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 54%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and the same as the same period last year [27]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From January 15 to January 21, the national corn processing volume was 635,500 tons, and the starch output was 330,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons. The operating rate was 60.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. The spot price of corn in North China has stabilized, the spot price of starch has risen, the by - product price has been stable, and the enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan, and the profit in Shandong was 14 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, the operating rate has declined, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of January 21, the corn starch inventory this week was 1.069 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons, a decrease of 2.8%, a monthly decrease of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [31]. - **Substitutes - Wheat**: The arrival price of wheat in North China is basically 2500 yuan per ton, and the price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. Corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is low [37]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From January 16 to January 22, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 116 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 52 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 38 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan per head. From January 15 to January 21, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.36 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.93 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was 0.13 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.18 yuan per catty last week [46][53]. - **Deep - processing - Corn Starch Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 71.58%, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 66.15%, a week - on - week increase of 3.68%. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 67.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].