1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: January 26, 2026 [2] 2. IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) 2.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 8365.43, down 1.24%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 277,160 lots, an increase of 54,174 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 394,502 lots, a decrease of 1,501 lots [4][5]. - The main contract (IM2603) fell 2.24% to close at 8289.2 points, with a premium of -76.23 points, a decrease of 122.09 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -6.22% [4][5]. 2.2 Key Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were mainly composed of CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, etc. The top five seats in terms of long positions were mainly Guotai Junan and CITIC Futures, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were mainly CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan [16]. 3. IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) 3.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4706.96, up 0.10%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 189,549 lots, an increase of 49,067 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 328,464 lots, an increase of 28,734 lots [21][22]. - The main contract (IF2603) rose 0.11% to close at 4719.4 points, with a premium of 12.44 points, an increase of 5.74 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 1.78% [21][22]. 3.2 Key Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were mainly CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan. The top five seats in terms of long positions were mainly Guotai Junan and CITIC Futures, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were mainly CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan [35]. 4. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) 4.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 8506.69, down 0.97%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 226,677 lots, an increase of 50,384 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 344,006 lots, an increase of 2,781 lots [40][41]. - The main contract (IC2603) fell 1.72% to close at 8470 points, with a premium of -36.69 points, a decrease of 104.72 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -2.93% [40][41]. 4.2 Key Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were mainly CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan. The top five seats in terms of long positions were mainly Guotai Junan and CITIC Futures, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were mainly CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan [53]. 5. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) 5.1 Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 3049.59, up 0.57%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 84,627 lots, an increase of 22,590 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 118,624 lots, an increase of 9,853 lots [59]. - The main contract (IH2603) rose 0.52% to close at 3058.2 points, with a premium of 8.61 points, an increase of 3 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 1.9% [59][60]. 5.2 Key Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were mainly Guotai Junan and CITIC Futures. The top five seats in terms of long positions were mainly Guotai Junan and CITIC Futures, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were mainly CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan [73].

玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2253 -2 -0.09% 2,139 52.13% 2,090 16.11% 2290 3 0.13% 265,026 52.88% 732,543 5.05% 2303 3 0.13% 17,583 70.71% 65,406 8.71% 2595 15 0.58% 1 -96.30% 17 6.25% 2617 -1 -0.04% 33,039 2.19% 76,806 8.30% 2635 1 0.04% 1,764 20.82% 5,621 27.95% 青冈 松原嘉吉 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2160 2220 2334 2306 2350 2420 2450 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 -143 -83 31 3 60 117 147 龙凤 中粮 益海（黑） 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2730 2700 2700 2860 2800 2900 2780 0 0 0 0 0 0 -10 113 83 83 243 183 283 163 玉 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/1/26 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7958 | 36 | 0.45% | 39,245 | 1.99% | 35,543 | 11.19% | | PK610 | 8250 | 34 | 0.41% | 183 | -40.78% | 2,781 | 2.24% | | PK601 | 8262 | 22 | 0.27% | 2 | -83.33% | 11 | 10.00% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a state of high activity with a strong upward trend, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The market成交 remains high, and the upward momentum is expected to continue. However, there are also potential risks, such as a reversal in market liquidity, a burst of the US AI bubble, and lower - than - expected economic growth [20]. - In different commodity sectors: - Agricultural products: Overall, the supply and demand situation varies. For example, protein meal faces supply pressure, while sugar has supply - side issues both domestically and internationally. Oils and fats are in a state of wide - range oscillation [25][28][31]. - Metals: Precious metals like gold and silver are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend. Base metals have different trends, such as copper being in a high - level consolidation phase, and iron ore having a weakening fundamental outlook [70][77][65]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Other products like asphalt, fuel oil, and LPG also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [120][122][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The IC and IM indices are accelerating upwards. The market enthusiasm is high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are favored. Trading strategies include going long on IM and IC in the medium - to - long term, and using grid trading for IF and IH in the short term [18][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Economic data is mixed, and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is positive. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL and consider short - selling the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the overall market is declining. The US soybean market is under pressure due to a generally loose supply - demand situation, while the domestic market may have some support in the short - term but still faces long - term pressure [25][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is falling, while the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. The international sugar market is affected by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, while the domestic market is under supply pressure but has some support at low prices [28][30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of various oils is in different states. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory [31][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port spot price is rising, and the market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn market is affected by export sales and weather, while the domestic market has a stable spot price in the short - term but still faces pressure [35][37]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure is improving, and the spot price is gradually rising. However, the overall supply pressure still exists, and the price is still under pressure [38][40]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume is decreasing, and the oil mill has a profit. The 05 contract is recommended to go long at low prices [41][43]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price is rising. The supply is gradually reducing production, but the 03 contract may have limited upward space due to the weak demand after the Spring Festival [44][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. The inventory is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the 5 - month contract price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [50][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The sales progress is fast, and the improvement in Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile factories' production capacity support the market. The short - term market is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory are in a complex state, and the cost is supported. The market is expected to remain oscillating before the Spring Festival [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and attention should be paid to capital disturbances. The supply of coking coal is not tight, and the downstream replenishment is not strong. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [61][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the iron ore price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the high - valuation situation is expected to be difficult to sustain. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and there is a need for restoration, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are improving marginally, and the cost is supported [67][69]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold has broken through the $5000 mark, and silver has entered the "three - digit" era. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers, and the prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [70][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical events have led to a rift in trust between Europe and the United States, and the precious metals are strongly rising. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [74][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level consolidation phase. The increase in inventory and the uncertainty of tariffs have an impact on the short - term price, but the long - term supply shortage and strong financial attributes support the price [77][79]. - **Alumina**: The market is mainly oscillating at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the fundamentals are still weak [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is oscillating and rebounding. The global shortage is more prominent overseas, and the downstream has replenishment sentiment, supporting the price [84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Driven by risk appetite, the alloy is oscillating and rebounding with the sector. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [85][86]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change in domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is still in short supply, and the supply of refined zinc is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate and rebound [87][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead may decline. The demand is weakening, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [93][97]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation is leading the nickel price to rise. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The price is expected to have upward space after high - level consolidation [98][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to remain high [102]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The news of production reduction is fermenting, but the coking coal is dragging down the market. The short - term market is oscillating strongly. If the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is declining, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price, and the futures should be treated with a short - term bearish view [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The price may continue to rise, but there are also regulatory risks [110][112]. - **Tin**: The tin price has increased in volume and broken through. The inventory is increasing, the production is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a high level [114][116]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is continuing to decline, and attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. The freight rate is in the off - season decline process, and the impact of export tax rebates and geopolitical factors on the market needs to be observed [117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Driven by risk appetite, geopolitical sentiment still exists. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps in Europe and the United States are boosting the price, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: Low inventory and low production support the spot price. The market is following the high - level oscillation of crude oil, and the demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches [122][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals remain weak, and geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be stable and weak in the first quarter, while the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing [127][128]. - **LPG**: International propane is in short supply, and chemical demand is declining. The international market is tight, the supply of domestic liquefied gas is increasing slightly, and the demand for downstream chemicals is decreasing [130]. - **Natural Gas**: It is expected that the upward space of LNG price is limited, and attention should be paid to the market risk of US HH near the delivery date. The short - term price is supported by cold weather, but the long - term demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to decline [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention is increasing, and the aromatics sector is in a strong atmosphere. The PX supply is at a high level, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital sentiment [136][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are frequent unexpected device problems, and the export transactions are good. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the supply of styrene is affected by device problems. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [140][142]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Saudi Arabia's maintenance is expected to reduce imports, and the Lianyungang device is switching production. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [143][145]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load is expected to decrease, and the price is following the cost side [146][148]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The maintenance is accelerating in late January, and the price is following the cost side. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market supply and demand are supported [150][152]. - **Plastics (L & PP)**: The operation of the rubber and plastics industry is continuously improving. The prices of L and PP are rising, and the industry's profitability is improving [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price and the futures market are expected to be weak [155][158]. - **PVC**: The price continues to rise. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, the export is expected to be strong, and the price is expected to continue to be strong [159][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating and repairing. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price decline is expected to slow down [161][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. The market is affected by the real - estate situation, and the price is expected to decline with a narrowing range [164][166]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate is declining, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The market is supported by the overall strength of chemical products [166][168]. - **Urea**: The market is mainly oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [169][171]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Chilean fire on the pulp supply. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to be bullish, but the impact of the fire needs to be observed [172][175]. - **Logs**: Due to natural disasters in New Zealand, the supply is tightening, and the spot price is slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions, and the long - position should be held [176][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound momentum. The supply is still sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [180][182]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory of different types of rubber is in different states, and the short - position is recommended for RU and NR [183][186]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts are increasing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the market should be observed [186][189].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the macro - level, geopolitical turmoil keeps the enthusiasm in the non - ferrous sector high, with strong varieties hitting new highs [5]. - At the industrial level, although the subsidy for new energy vehicles is gradually phased out, 62.5 billion in subsidies are advanced, and car companies subsidize 2025 pre - sale orders. Coupled with the reduction in export tax rebates stimulating "rush - to - export", the vehicle sales data from January to February is smoothed. Energy storage orders are scheduled until April - May 2026, but due to battery capacity bottlenecks, they cannot expand rapidly. It is expected that the combined demand for power and energy storage will decline slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders have increased, and institutions have revised up the production plan for January. The domestic demand side in January is not in a typical off - season, with a month - on - month decline of less than 5%. On the supply side, it is reported that a mine in Yichun has stopped production for license renewal, and the market is worried that other mines in Yichun will also be affected. From January to February, smelters conduct maintenance to prepare for peak - season demand. Even if lithium ore imports increase, the production of lithium carbonate may not increase rapidly, and the supply flexibility is limited. The inventory expectation from January to February has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, which further stimulates downstream purchasing intentions [5]. - At the futures level, the market has raised the target price for lithium prices, and the optimistic sentiment remains high. The new high in prices indicates that the upward trend will continue. However, regulatory risks may still cause significant short - term corrections, and market sentiment changes should be closely monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand Analysis 3.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Off - Season but Better than Expected - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that in 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively, and the penetration rate is 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from January 1 - 18, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 312,000, a year - on - year decrease of 16% and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year are 312,000, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The production of power cells follows the sales trend of new energy vehicles. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 1245.5 GWh. In January, the "rush - to - export" driven by the reduction in export tax rebates may smooth the decline in power battery production caused by poor vehicle sales [10]. 3.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Divergent Electrification Progress in Europe and the United States - CleanTechnica statistics show that from January - November 2025, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million, compared with a 26.4% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In Europe, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, compared with a 3.7% year - on - year decrease in the same period last year. In the United States, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million, compared with an 11% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. The United States cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small sales peak in advance. Most European countries still offer subsidies for new energy vehicles and have carbon emission requirements, which stimulate sales growth this year. However, they also decide to weaken the 2035 ban on fuel - powered vehicles according to their own situations and instead reduce carbon emissions by 90%. The CAAM statistics show that from January - December 2025, the cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from China were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103%, compared with an 11% year - on - year increase in the same period last year [15]. 3.1.3 Energy Storage Market - Hot Orders but Capacity Bottlenecks Limit Production Growth - In December, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on power long - term contract signing and performance in 2026, further promoting electricity price marketization. SMM statistics show that in 2025, the cumulative production of energy storage cells in China was 529.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%, compared with an 88% increase in the same period last year. The inventory of energy storage cells is at a three - year low, the delivery cycle is extended, and the production of energy storage cells in January increased by 1% month - on - month [16][19]. 3.1.4 "Rush - to - export" Boosts Market Sentiment but with Limited Room - SMM data shows that in December, battery production increased by 3.5% month - on - month, with ternary battery production decreasing by 2.9% and lithium iron phosphate battery production decreasing by 5.6%. Cell production: power cells decreased by 2.8% and energy storage cells increased by 8.6%. Cathode material production: ternary cathode materials decreased by 2.5% and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2%. Electrolyte production increased by 4.0%. In January, battery production is expected to decrease by 5.9% month - on - month, with ternary batteries decreasing by 6.4% and lithium iron phosphate batteries decreasing by 5.6%. Cell production: power cells are expected to decrease by 6.1% and energy storage cells to remain flat. Cathode material production: ternary cathode materials are expected to decrease by 4.4% and lithium iron phosphate by 10%. Electrolyte production is expected to decrease by 6.1%. Affected by the weakening power demand, the off - season continues in January but may be revised up due to the "rush - to - export". It is expected that the month - on - month decline will continue in February [28]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Stable but Slightly Declining Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, due to maintenance of some smelters, production decreased by 1.2% month - on - month, and more maintenance is expected in February. SMM statistics show that from January - December, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 970,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%, compared with a 47% increase in the same period last year. The production plan for January is 98,000 tons. Leading lithium mines are holding firm on prices, and lithium ore prices follow lithium salt prices, exceeding production costs. This week, the production of all raw materials has declined, indicating the start of smelter maintenance [33]. 3.2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - The report presents the production trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling, with specific data and trends in different months from 2022 - 2025 [35]. 3.2.3 Marginal Decline in Lithium Carbonate Supply in January - In 2025, from January - December, China's lithium carbonate imports were 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In December, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 14,000 tons, and 8071 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month decline. Due to reduced shipments from Australia and Chile in December, it is expected that the imports of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate in China in January will decline month - on - month [41]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Forecast (in 10,000 tons of LCE) - The report shows the historical supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and its relationship with average prices [43]. 3.3.2 Continuous Inventory Reduction in the Lithium Carbonate Off - Season - SMM statistics show that the social inventory decreased by 783 tons this week, and inventory has been continuously reduced for two weeks in January. Among them, smelters and downstream enterprises increased their inventory, while traders reduced their inventory [44]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral trading**: Adopt a low - buying strategy [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, due to production cuts by Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL Technology, polysilicon production decreased in January and February, and inventory significantly accumulated. The spot price has dropped, and future prices are expected to decline further under high inventory and weak demand. The short - term futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. - For industrial silicon, downstream demand has weakened due to organic silicon and polysilicon production cuts. Although there are unconfirmed rumors of large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers, if they materialize, it will reverse the supply - demand situation in February. The futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise after actual production cuts. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: Tongwei Co., Ltd. stopped all polysilicon production, and GCL Technology cut production. In January, production dropped to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it fell below 85,000 tons. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers soared to 330,000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot market transactions increased, with a volume of nearly 30,000 tons in the second half of the week and a price range of 45 - 49 yuan/kg. The spot price has significantly decreased, and future prices may continue to fall, with a support level of 42 - 45 yuan/kg [4]. - **Futures Market**: With low trading volume and increased random fluctuations in the market, a short - term bearish view is recommended, with a reference price range of (45000, 52000). Attention should be paid to next week's important meetings [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a bearish view and participate cautiously due to low trading volume. There are no recommendations for arbitrage and options [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly production of DMC decreased by 0.61% to 42,900 tons, polysilicon production decreased by 7.4% to 20,400 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [6]. - **Trading Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened due to production cuts in organic silicon and polysilicon. If the large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers are implemented, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons, reversing the supply - demand situation in February. The rumors of production cuts have boosted manufacturers' confidence in holding prices. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate strongly, and it may rise after actual production cuts [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a reference price range of (8600, 9500). There are no recommendations for options and arbitrage [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, while the spot price changed little, and there was no large - scale hedging [10]. - **Downstream Demand**: The production of DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was slightly adjusted. The weekly production of DMC was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 0.61%, and the weekly production of polysilicon was 20,400 tons, a decrease of 7.4%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3% [13]. - **Production**: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. If major manufacturers implement production cuts, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [25]. - **Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon, DMC, and terminal products remained stable this week [30][34]. - **Intermediate Fundamental Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates was slightly adjusted [40]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [44]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable this week [48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Product Prices**: This week, the prices of some polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, while the prices of batteries and components increased. For example, the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 2.02% compared to the previous weekend [52]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: From April 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components will be cancelled, leading to potential export rush in January - March. The estimated production in January will increase to around 40GW. The European and domestic component inventories are at a moderately low level [60]. - **Battery Chip Fundamental Data**: The export tax rebate for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The estimated production in January will increase to around 48GW [61]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 26.78GW. With the cancellation of the export tax rebate, there is still demand for export rush, and the estimated production in January may increase to 50GW [67]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory increased to 330,000 tons. In January, due to production cuts by GCL Technology and Tongwei Co., Ltd., the production decreased to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it will be reduced to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [72].

地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03151476 投资咨询资格证号：Z0023508 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 交易、套利数据追踪 7 第三章 基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 铂钯：地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周市场主要叙事由美联储人事风波让位于地缘政治与关税危机，经济数据的影响弱化。周初特朗普称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问 ，引发市场对于后续降息预期走弱，贵金属及相应风险资产价格回落；但后续特朗普关税工具威胁欧洲以获取格陵兰岛的问题上摇摆不定，成 为市场关注的重点，即便周中公布的美国经济数据如GDP有较强韧性，但总体来看美元指数疲弱，欧洲长期资本对美元资产的信心正因地缘 政治与财政风险而动摇，可能预示着全球资本流动格局的重塑，贵金属价格在美元指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in nickel prices is led by long - term expectations. Although the price has received regulatory attention after consecutive sharp increases and may experience corrections approaching the Spring Festival, the upward trend is not over, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the supply - demand is tight with cost support, and a low - buying strategy is also advised after price corrections [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel**: Global visible inventory reached 352,000 tons, increasing by 780 tons this week, with domestic social inventory up 2,784 tons and LME inventory down 2,044 tons. Jinchuan nickel is under tight supply, and its premium remains around 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: Social inventory is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are expected to increase in the future. Supply - side raw material shortages, especially for hot - rolled products, may lead to a downward revision of cold - rolled production schedules. Demand - side pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, but due to strong bullish sentiment, spot prices are rising with hoarding behavior [10][19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, refined nickel production increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. Net imports were 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. Total supply was 450,000 tons, a 45% year - on - year increase. In January, high prices are expected to further boost production, and net imports are also expected to increase [27]. - **Demand**: From January to December, pure nickel consumption increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating demand is in the off - season, and overall consumption growth has slowed [30]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Market sentiment for overseas nickel mines is positive, and prices are rising. The Indonesian government is still processing the approval of mining company work plans and budgets [31][32]. - **NPI**: NPI production is recovering, with prices rising and profit margins improving. Some production lines are switching from NPI to high - grade nickel ice due to falling NPI prices [33][34]. - **Chromium - Based Materials**: Chromium - based prices are rising. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on chromium exports starting from January 1, 2026, leading to a continuous rebound in chromium ore prices [38][44]. - **Cost Estimation**: Estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 14,400 yuan/ton, and integrated cost is about 13,900 yuan/ton [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, the combined stainless steel crude steel production of China and Indonesia is expected to be 45.06 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In January, due to shortages of hot - rolled products, production schedules may be revised downward. China's stainless steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year to 1.519 million tons, exports remained flat at 5.031 million tons, and net exports increased by 11% to 3.512 million tons [56]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding production has a high growth rate, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, growth in other terminal sectors is not optimistic, especially in the real estate market [57][58]. 3.2.4 New Energy Automobiles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a 29% and 28.2% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 47.9%. In January 2026, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles decreased. Power battery production followed the trend of vehicle sales, and in January, the impact of export tax rebate reduction may mitigate the decline in battery production [63]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a 103% year - on - year increase [68]. 3.2.5 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. Ternary precursor production increased by 6% to 903,000 tons, and ternary cathode material production increased by 19% to 686,000 tons. In January, demand slowed down, but prices followed the upward trend of refined nickel [70]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% to 444,000 tons, and high - grade nickel ice production decreased by 18% to 224,000 tons. Rising sulfur prices increased MHP production costs, but strong nickel sulfate demand boosted intermediate product prices and production [76]. 3.3 Trading Logic and Strategies - **Nickel**: For single - side trading, adopt a low - buying strategy after price corrections and stabilizations. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: For single - side trading, buy at low prices after corrections and stabilizations. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [10].

Group 1 - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly: Partially Take Profits and Pay Attention to the Trend of Risk Assets [1] - Researcher: Shen Chen CFA [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3053225 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0015885 [1] Group 2 - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The economic data released this week showed that the GDP deflator repaired faster, and the production side had sufficient resilience, but the improvement on the domestic demand side was limited, with investment and consumption both weaker than expected. The economic data was not necessarily negative for the bond market. After the central bank made it clear that there was still some room for overall easing this year and the yields at the medium - short end had fallen first, more allocation funds entered the market this week, driving the yields at the long end to start a compensatory decline. The current attitude of the central bank towards liquidity injection was warm, and the risks at the medium - short end were relatively controllable, but before the expectation of a policy rate cut significantly increased, the odds of going long at the medium - short end were still limited. The yield of 30Y treasury bonds had fallen by nearly 9bp from the previous high. Considering factors such as the improvement of the domestic "re - inflation" expectation and the concern about the supply of government bonds not being completely eliminated, the stage when the yield at the ultra - long end declined most smoothly might have passed. In the short term, the performance of the ultra - long end would largely depend on the trend of risk assets. [5] - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: Partially take profits on the previous long positions of TL contracts at high prices [6] - Arbitrage: Moderately pay attention to the transaction of shorting the basis of the 30Y active bonds [6] Group 3: First Part - Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Economic Data - The Ministry of Finance Deputy Minister Liao Min stated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy would continue to be implemented, and the specific details of subsequent fiscal policies to expand domestic demand were worth close attention [8] - The economic data for December last year and the fourth quarter showed differentiation. The fourth - quarter GDP deflator was - 0.65%, still in the negative range but up 0.44 percentage points from the third quarter. In December, supported by external demand, industrial production had sufficient resilience, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in the fourth quarter rose 0.3 percentage points to 74.9%. However, as a nominal indicator, the repair momentum on the domestic demand side was still weak. In December, the growth rate of domestic fixed - asset investment continued to decline, with the year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing and broad infrastructure investment at - 10.5% and - 16.0% respectively, down 6.1 and 4.1 percentage points from the previous month. The improvement in consumer goods retail was also limited, with the year - on - year growth rate of durable goods consumption by units above the designated size at - 4.3%, also continuing the negative growth trend [13][14] Central Bank's Liquidity Support - The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity was clear. On Friday, it over - renewed the due MLF by 70 billion yuan this month. Together with the outright reverse - repurchase operation, it had net injected 1 trillion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity in a single month, and smooth cross - month of funds was still expected [16] Market Capital Situation - This week, the overall market capital situation was still balanced, and the disturbances caused by the tax period and the increased supply of local bonds were limited. As of Friday's close, DR001 and DR007 were at 1.3983% and 1.4935% respectively. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 6.71bp and 4.25bp respectively. In terms of long - term funds, the issuance rate of 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit by joint - stock banks fluctuated and declined this week, and as of Friday, it had fallen to around 1.61%. Next week, as it was the cross - month period and the issuance and payment of government bonds would further increase (more than 515 billion yuan), it was expected that the market capital situation would tighten [23] Futures Bond Valuation - Calculated according to the ChinaBond valuation and the futures settlement price, as of Friday's close, the IRRs of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.4223%, 1.5724%, 1.4680%, and 0.9765% respectively. Statically, the IRR of the TL main contract was relatively low, and the valuations of the main contracts for other tenors were relatively reasonable [29] Ultra - long Bond Spread - Last week, it was suggested that investors could use a moderate reverse thinking for potential negative factors such as the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds and not be overly pessimistic. After the bond market sentiment eased, as of Friday, the spread between the CTD bond of the TL main contract and the active bond of the same tenor (including tax) fell to 5.9bp, down 1.35bp from last Friday. However, affected by factors such as different trading times, the valuation of the TL contract had relatively large fluctuations compared with the spot bonds recently, and the basis had not significantly converged according to the ChinaBond valuation and the futures settlement price [33] Group 4: Second Part - Related Data Tracking Treasury Bond Futures Contract Spreads - It includes the spreads between TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [37] Trading Volume and Open Interest - It shows the trading volume and open - interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [40] Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - It involves the treasury bond spot yield curve (ChinaBond), treasury bond term spreads (ChinaBond), spreads between treasury bonds and local bonds (ChinaBond), and spreads between 10Y treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds (ChinaBond) [43] US Treasury Bond Yields and Exchange Rates - It includes the 10 - year US treasury bond yield, the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [46]

Report Title - Short-term oils and fats lack obvious drivers, and wide-range fluctuations are likely to continue [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term oils and fats are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations without a clear trend [26] - Domestic soybean supply is currently sufficient, and soybean crushing is expected to pick up in the next two weeks. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de-stocking slightly, but overall inventory is not likely to be tight. There is no prominent contradiction in soybean oil at present [5][24] - Sino-Canadian rapeseed trade is expected to resume, and rapeseed supply is expected to increase. However, it will take time for Canadian rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue de-stocking, and the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [5][24] - High-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil will reduce production and de-stock in January, and it is expected to continue to do so in the later stage, but the de-stocking speed is slow, and high inventory may continue [5][24] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of January decreased by 16.06% compared with the same period last month. ITS shows that the export volume in the same period was 950,000 tons, a 11.4% increase [5][8] - As of January 21, 2026, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean has completed 96.2% of the planned area, a 2.3 percentage point increase from last week [5][11] - This week, oils and fats showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the rise of crude oil due to the cold wave in the United States, and good expectations for U.S. biodiesel [5] International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: High-frequency data shows a 16.06% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January compared with the same period last month, and a 11.4% increase in exports. The inventory in January may drop to around 2.8 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. UOB predicts a 13%-17% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January, similar to SPPOMA. The weather forecast shows increased rainfall in the southern Malay Peninsula in the next two weeks [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The government revoked the operating licenses of 28 companies and will raise the palm oil LEVY tax from March 1, both of which will boost palm oil prices [8] - **South American Soybeans**: As of January 17, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 98.6%, and the harvest progress was 2.3%. Some areas may be affected by continuous rainfall. As of January 21, Argentina's sowing progress reached 96.2%, but the northern agricultural region was affected by continuous rainfall [11] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.37% increase from last week, at a slightly high level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are rumors of near-month purchases. The basis is fluctuating weakly. Short-term palm oil lacks obvious drivers, and high inventory is expected to persist, but factors such as the low inventory in Indonesia, the upcoming tax increase, and accelerated exports will provide support. It is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 6.03% decrease from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable and slightly weak. The spot trading volume has improved, and the inventory is expected to continue to de-stock slightly. Short-term domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, so it is expected to maintain a bottom-range fluctuation [19] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 last week, and the inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000-ton increase, at a neutral level, and the inventory is continuously de-stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -$1,300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed, and short-term supply of tradable rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening trend in rapeseed oil, but considering the time for rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports and the good biodiesel expectations, the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [22] Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short-term oils and fats may continue wide-range fluctuations without a trend [26] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [26] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [26] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [31][32][33][35] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [36][37][38][39] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Covers NOPA U.S. soybean crushing volume, NOPA U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory [41][43][45][47] - **Indian Oils and Fats**: Covers monthly data on consumption, imports, port inventory, and imports of different types of oils [49][50][51][52][54][56][58][59] Domestic Market - **Import Profits**: Includes domestic rapeseed oil and 24-degree palm oil import profits [62][63][64][66] - **Supply and Demand of Different Oils**: Covers data on supply and demand, including crushing volume, consumption, trading volume, and inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [66][68][70] - **Spot Basis**: Includes the spot basis of first-grade soybean oil, 24-degree palm oil, and domestic triple-rapeseed oil [73] - **Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on the commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oils and fats [77][78][79][80][82][83][84]