研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 3 月 5 日 原油现货市场日报 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 根据一位熟悉数据的人士透露 OPEC第二大产油国伊拉克在2月份日均 ， 出口原油和凝析油357万桶。 | | --- | --- | | | 依赖中东石油的中国和日本炼化企业已暂停成品油出口 以保障国内供 ， | | | 应。 | | 贸易物流 | 科威特附近一艘油轮遇袭事件 凸显了船舶穿越霍尔木兹海峡所面临的 ， | | | 风险， 该海峡的船只通行量已大幅下降。 | | | 这场战争已促使全球原油贸易格局迅速转变： 亚洲买家转向美国原油 ， | | | 而印度炼油商则再度将采购重心转回莫斯科以获取能源供应。 | | 油田库存 | 新加坡政府数据显示 截至3月4日当周 当地石油产品库存增加252万 ， ， | | | 桶 增幅达5 总量升至约5000万桶。 .3%， ， | | 地缘政治 | 据一份声明显示 俄罗斯2月份实现石油和天然气收入4323亿卢布 但财 ， ， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price continues to rise, while the price of Northeast corn is also increasing. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, as farmers sell more grain in March, the upward space of Northeast corn spot price is limited, and so is the upward space of 05 corn [4][7][9]. - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively stable and higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. It is expected that the 05 starch will oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2345, up 5 (0.21%), with a trading volume of 1,664 (down 6.73%) and an open interest of 6,126 (up 5.35%) [2]. - C2605 closed at 2384, up 5 (0.21%), with a trading volume of 584,219 (up 5.24%) and an open interest of 1,484,708 (up 1.35%) [2]. - C2509 closed at 2397, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 19,134 (down 13.85%) and an open interest of 118,754 (up 2.04%) [2]. - CS2601 closed at 2682, up 13 (0.48%), with a trading volume of 7 (down 74.07%) and an open interest of 113 (up 2.73%) [2]. - CS2605 closed at 2696, up 4 (0.15%), with a trading volume of 108,488 (down 21.74%) and an open interest of 252,833 (down 0.73%) [2]. - CS2509 closed at 2710, up 5 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 2,019 (up 12.04%) and an open interest of 15,911 (up 2.51%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2190, 2230, 2420, 2400, 2395, 2490, and 2520 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 14, 10, 5, 0, and 10. The basis was - 207, - 167, 23, 3, 11, 93, and 123 respectively [2]. - Starch: The spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2780, 2700, 2750, 2920, 2920, 2970, and 2900 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, and 50. The basis was 84, 4, 54, 224, 224, 274, and 204 respectively [2]. 3.1.3 Price Difference - Corn inter - period: C01 - C05 was - 39 (unchanged), C05 - C09 was - 13 (up 4), C09 - C01 was 52 (down 4) [2]. - Starch inter - period: CS01 - CS05 was - 14 (up 9), CS05 - CS09 was - 14 (down 1), CS09 - CS01 was 28 (down 8) [2]. - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 was 313 (up 4), CS01 - C01 was 337 (up 8), CS05 - C05 was 312 (down 1) [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - US corn has declined, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, but it is still oscillating at the bottom. The in - quota tariff for US corn is 11%, and for sorghum is 12%. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2238 yuan. The closing price at northern ports is strong, around 2395 yuan. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area continues to rise. The operating rate of deep - processing plants in North China has increased, and the supply of corn is affected by the weather and is relatively low. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The prices of wheat and corn in auctions continue. The price of North China wheat is strong, around 2520 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the short - term spot price of corn is relatively strong. However, as farmers sell more grain, the upward space of the 05 corn futures price is limited [4][7]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2900 yuan, and the spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, reaching 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively stable and higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. Affected by the weather, the supply of corn has decreased, the downstream operating rate has increased, the spot price of corn has risen significantly, and enterprises are still suffering large losses. It is expected that the 05 starch futures will oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Unilateral - The 05 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Go short on 05 corn lightly at high prices and set stop - losses [10]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Go long on the price difference between 05 corn and starch at low prices [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and operate in a rolling manner [12]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures, showing the closing price of North Port corn, the basis of corn 05 contract, the price difference between corn 5 - 9, the price difference between corn starch 5 - 9, the basis of corn starch 05 contract, and the price difference of corn starch 05 contract [15][16][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The international LPG market is expected to have significant cost - side support due to the impact of Saudi loading and the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects China's imports, increasing the uncertainty of domestic VLGC arrivals from late March to April. The cost of shipping from the US to the Far East will also rise substantially. As a result, both the domestic and international LPG markets are expected to strengthen. Attention should be paid to navigation and freight conditions. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - **Domestic Futures**: The price of PG2602 on March 5, 2026, was 5127, down 177 from the previous day. The main contract position was 95317, a decrease of 3748, and the warrant quantity was 5652, a drop of 7. [4] - **Domestic Spot**: In the华南 region, the price of refinery - produced gas was 5160 and imported gas was 5200, both unchanged. In the华东 region, refinery - produced gas rose by 149 to 4857, and imported gas increased by 12 to 5280. In the Shandong region, refinery - produced gas increased by 10 to 4850, and ether - post - C4 decreased by 90. The base difference increased by 177 to 21. [4] - **External Market Price**: BRENT rose by 0.4 to 81.8, while most other external market prices remained unchanged. [4] - **Disk Profit**: The import profit FEI decreased by 169.9 to - 860.0, and PDH FEI decreased by 39.7 to - 1606.7. [4] - **Price Ratio**: The FEI/BRENT ratio decreased by 0.04 to 9.3, and the FEI/MOPJ ratio remained unchanged at 31.4. [4] 3.2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - An oil tanker was attacked in the northern Persian Gulf by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy on Thursday morning. - An oil tanker was attacked near Kuwait, highlighting the risks of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where ship traffic has dropped significantly. - Chinese and Japanese refining enterprises relying on Middle Eastern oil have suspended refined oil exports to ensure domestic supply. - Iraq, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC, exported an average of 3.57 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in February. [5] 3.3 Spot Overview - **Shandong Region**: The estimated price of civil gas was 4850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Refinery sales were smooth yesterday, but today the mainstream price stabilized and some areas increased. The ether - post market showed mixed trends, with a fair trading atmosphere. It is expected to decline tomorrow. [6] - **East China Region**: The mainstream transaction price of imported gas was 5280 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. Although the terminal purchasing enthusiasm declined, due to limited arrivals and high uncertainty, the price rose steadily. [6] - **South China Region**: The average price of domestic gas was 5160 yuan/ton, and imported gas was 5200 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The market was stable, with tepid trading due to insufficient terminal demand. Downstream maintained a high - inventory, just - in - time purchasing mode. [6] - **North China Region**: The benchmark price of civil gas was 4626 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton. The market continued to rise but with a narrowing increase, and there was insufficient upward momentum. [7]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 3 月 5 日 | 第一部分 | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | 2026/3/5 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | 期货 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 7850 | 6 | 0.08% | 12,470 | -21.23% | 31,522 | -1.52% | | PK610 8250 | 22 | 0.27% | 1,011 | 69.63% | 4,589 | 12.59% | | PK601 8294 | 22 | 0.27% | 32 | 52.38% | 162 | 11.72% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | 现货 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 7800 | 8000 | 8000 | 3250 | 3030 | 14300 | 86 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment of stock index futures has improved significantly, and the short - term market is expected to bottom out. Treasury bond futures show a strengthening trend due to looser funds [18][22]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal may decline, while the sugar price is likely to oscillate at the bottom. The fluctuation of the oil and fat sector has increased, and the corn and its starch futures are in high - level oscillation [26][29][32][33]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate during the two sessions, and the trend of coking coal and coke is not obvious. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to geopolitical conflicts [56][58][61]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals such as gold and silver will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and the price of copper will oscillate in the short term [66][72]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the spot freight rate of container shipping may rise if the geopolitical conflict persists, and the freight rate of dry bulk shipping is supported by overseas demand [110][114]. - In the energy and chemical market, the price difference between domestic and foreign crude oil markets has soared, and asphalt is supported by cost with a reduced supply expectation [122][125]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to decline, but the market sentiment has improved. The adjustment is expected to end, and it is recommended to go long on dips and conduct index - futures and ETF arbitrage [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher. With the central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the release of the February official manufacturing PMI, the bond market was generally strong. It is recommended to hold long positions in the T contract lightly [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The supply of domestic protein meal is under pressure, and the price may decline. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side and narrow the MRM09 spread [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price has fallen, and the domestic sugar price has corrected. The international sugar market may oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to buy low and sell high on the single - side [29][31][32]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil have changed. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and fundamentals, the oil and fat market may oscillate with increased volatility. It is recommended to consider reverse arbitrage on p59 and y59 [33][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures have declined. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on the 05 corn on the single - side and expand the spread between 05 corn and starch [37][38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is oscillating, with sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and some short - term support. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts on the single - side [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut lightly on dips and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has declined due to the off - season consumption. It is recommended to short the June contract on the single - side [45][47]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is at a relatively low level, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long - 5 and short - 10 arbitrage [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external cotton market is oscillating. The domestic cotton price has strong support below and is likely to oscillate stronger. It is recommended to go long on the domestic cotton on dips [53][54][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: During the two sessions, steel prices will continue to oscillate. The overall fundamentals of steel are weakening, but the short - term trend is oscillating stronger. It is recommended to go short on the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating greatly but without an obvious trend. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating stronger. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased, but the impact on domestic iron ore supply is small. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The profit - loss ratio of ferroalloys has decreased, and it is recommended to partially close long positions [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment has recovered, but inflation concerns still exist. Gold and silver will continue the high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and go long on silver on dips [66][67][68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The concern about re - inflation has slightly weakened, and the precious metals will oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, wait and see on palladium, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [72][73]. - **Alumina**: The overseas alumina price has fallen, and the domestic market is also under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [74][76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have affected the Qatalum electrolysis plant, and the aluminum price is expected to rise. The internal - external price difference is expected to widen [78][79][80]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise with the aluminum price [81]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may be stronger in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions with the stop - loss line raised [83][84][85]. - **Lead**: The lead price will oscillate within a range [86]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy is favorable, but the macro - sentiment dominates. It is recommended to buy on dips after the macro - sentiment stabilizes [90][92]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, the stainless steel price follows the nickel price. It is recommended to buy after the macro - sentiment stabilizes [94][96][97]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The sudden increase in electricity prices has consolidated the bottom of the industrial silicon market. It is recommended to buy on dips and try shorting after the manufacturer hedges [98]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot transaction price has driven the futures price down. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side and pay attention to liquidity risks [100][103]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk preference has decreased, and funds have withdrawn. It is recommended to go long on dips [104][105]. - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the tin price may oscillate and consolidate [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Maersk's wk12 opening price has increased. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the spot freight rate may rise. It is recommended to close long positions in the off - season contract 04 in batches [110][111][112]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The freight rate index has risen. Affected by the resumption of work in China and geopolitical conflicts, the freight rate of all ship - types has increased. The freight rate of small and medium - sized ships may be supported by overseas demand [115][116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market is trading lightly, and the EU carbon price is affected by policies and energy prices. The short - term trend of the domestic carbon price is expected to be oscillating stronger, and the EU carbon price will continue to be affected by geopolitical conflicts [117][120][121]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The situation of the war is unclear, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has soared. It is recommended to take a bullish view on the single - side [122][123][124]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks [125][126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The focus of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the near - term is on supply contradictions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks [128][129][130]. - **LPG**: The supply is tightening, and the freight rate has increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate stronger [131][133]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price is continuing to correct, and the market risk is still extremely high. It is recommended to wait and see [134][136]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has carried out preventive load - reduction measures. It is recommended to follow the cost trend on the single - side [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are many maintenance plans for styrene in March. The styrene price is expected to be oscillating stronger [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants have stopped production, and the supply from the Middle East is affected. The price is expected to be stronger with a strengthening basis [142][143][144]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost trend. It is recommended to hold long positions before the end of geopolitical conflicts and conduct arbitrage on the processing fee [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to follow the cost trend on the single - side [147]. - **Propylene**: The price of the main raw materials has risen, and the supply - demand side has support. The price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [149][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The LLDPE and PP prices have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts and conduct short - arbitrage on the L2605&PP2605 contract [152][153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is oscillating. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side and wait and see on arbitrage [156][157]. - **PVC**: The PVC price is rising firmly. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is oscillating stronger. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage [161][162][163]. - **Glass**: The glass price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies on the single - side and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [166][168]. - **Urea**: The urea price is oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range on the single - side and wait and see on arbitrage [169][170][172]. - **Pulp**: It is necessary to pay attention to the supply of European pulp. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [172][173][174]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to short on rallies and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [175][176]. - **Logs**: The external price has risen, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [176][177][179]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The El Niño index continues to cool down. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU and NR 05 contracts [180][181][182]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production increase of butadiene rubber has expanded. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract and conduct long - BR2605 and short - RU2605 arbitrage [184][185][186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The apple fundamentals are strong. The cold storage inventory of apples is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, with a decline of 3.2%. The inventory is only higher than that in the 2018/19 fruit season. Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the pre - Spring Festival shipment and warehousing situation is acceptable. After the Spring Festival, from March to April is a relatively off - season for other fruits to be on the market, and the recent apple shipment situation has improved, with the inventory removal speed accelerating compared to last week. As March enters the delivery month, the market pays attention to whether the cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of the May contract of apples are indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking orders for closing positions. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, with a change of - 0.30 compared to the next working day. The prices of various types of apples such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.97, with no change [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is 8596, up 68 from the previous close; AP05 is 10449, up 166 from the previous close; AP10 is 8748, up 104 from the previous close. The spreads between different contracts also have corresponding changes, such as AP01 - AP05 is - 1853, down 98; AP05 - AP10 is 1701, up 62; AP10 - AP01 is 152, up 36 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 compared to different contracts has decreased. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 596, down 68; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 748.0, down 104; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2449, down 166 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Apple Market News**: As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, with a decline of 3.2%. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume in December 2025 was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the western production area, the prices of some specifications of goods have increased slightly due to more customers looking at the goods and good enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality goods. The mainstream market in the Shandong production area is stable, with the quoted prices of high - quality goods of individual storage merchants slightly increased, but the actual transaction prices have not changed significantly. The market arrival is good, the shipment is stable, and the price is stable. The prices of apples in Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan and Shandong Yantai Qixia are stable, and the transaction is smooth [8]. - **Trading Logic**: The apple fundamentals are strong. The cold - storage inventory is low, the pre - Spring Festival shipment is acceptable, and the post - Spring Festival shipment has improved. As March enters the delivery month, the market focuses on delivery requirements and warehouse - receipt costs. The May contract has strong fundamentals, but the price increase today is large, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips; for the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; for the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples across the country, and the cold - storage apple outbound volume, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [11][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton have certain support. Considering the reduction in global cotton production and the potential for increased consumption, there may be a tight - balance situation. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 75, 50, and 45 respectively; the closing price of CY05 decreased by 45, and CY09 increased by 20. The trading volume of CF01 increased by 219, while that of CF05 and CF09 decreased by 25667 and 8358 respectively. The trading volume of CY05 increased by 1324, and CY09 increased by 7. The open interest of CF01 increased by 1238, CF09 increased by 2369, and CY05 decreased by 499 [2] - **Spot Price**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 62, Cot A increased from 74.95 to 75.90, the price of FC Index:M: to - port decreased by 1.00, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 59. The prices of other spot products remained unchanged [2] - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 65, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 75, CY05 - CF05 increased by 5, and CY09 - CF09 increased by 65. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread increased by 115, the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread increased by 61, and the internal - external yarn spread decreased by 59 [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1472 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged from the previous day. In December 2025/26, India's棉纱 export volume was 10.14 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01% and a month - on - month increase of 11.64%. From August to December 2025, India's total棉纱 export volume was 45.6 tons. In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month, with an import value of 17.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.33% and a month - on - month increase of 16.45% [5][6] - **Trading Logic**: The fundamentals of cotton have no obvious negative factors. Global cotton production has been reduced by 3% (US production has been reduced, and China's by 9%). The supply is expected to be 2525 and consumption 2614, showing a relatively tight situation. As of February 12, the signing of US cotton improved, with 10.57 tons signed, a month - on - month increase of 5.33 tons, and the cumulative signing was 192.79 tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light. Spinning mills are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and downstream fabric mills and traders are making rigid purchases. Some yarn mills reduced prices yesterday, but most are still waiting and seeing, with a trading discount of 200 - 300 yuan. The operating rate of inland spinning mills is gradually recovering. The operating rate of fabric mills is basically stable, but production is limited due to a shortage of workers. The in - production orders are mainly from before the Spring Festival, and new orders are still scarce [10][12] 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively. The implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 60 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14][15] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff internal - external cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][17][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short-term, the volatility of the oil market is expected to increase due to geopolitical factors, but overall it will remain in a volatile state, making unilateral trading difficult. It is recommended to wait and see, and not to chase the price blindly [9]. - For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage on the P59 and Y59 contracts when the price is high [10]. - For options, the recommendation is to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract were 8370, 9002, and 9486 respectively, with price changes of 20, 8, and 22. Spot prices and basis varied by region and variety, with some basis showing declines [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 30, -22, and 85, with price changes of 2, -12, and 31 respectively [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 05 contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were -632, 1116, and 484, with price changes of 12, no change, and 14 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.96, with a change of 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: The on - paper profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -184, and the on - paper profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -1527 [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories**: In the 9th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 70.6, 78.7, and 27.1 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In February 2026, Malaysia's MPOA production data showed significant declines in various regions, with an overall decline of 16.24%. Indonesia's meteorological agency warned of a longer and more severe drought in 2026, with the drought starting in April and peaking in August [4]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The futures price fluctuated slightly higher. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 78.67 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.03 million tons. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable. It is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to geopolitical changes in the Middle East [5][6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 58.86 million tons, with an actual operating rate of 16.19%. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 91.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.16 million tons. The basis was stable with a slight decline, and it is recommended to maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [5][6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 1.2 million tons, with an operating rate of 3.20%. As of February 27, 2026, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 15.1 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 27.1 million tons. The import profit was inverted, and the basis is expected to weaken. Although there are short - term supports, the increase in rapeseed arrivals will suppress the price increase [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Due to geopolitical factors, short - term oil price volatility may increase, but overall it will remain volatile. Unilateral trading is difficult, so it is recommended to wait and see and not chase the price blindly [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider reverse arbitrage on the P59 and Y59 contracts when the price is high [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [14][15][19][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3615, up 9 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3365, up 22; JD09 closed at 3780, up 3 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread was 250, down 13; 05 - 09 spread was - 415, up 19; 09 - 01 spread was 165, down 6 [2] - **Ratio with Feed**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.54, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.20, up 0.01. Similar data for other contracts are also provided [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country decreased [2][4] - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.89 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [6] 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2403, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3148, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.63, up 0.00 [2] - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was - 1.31 yuan, down 3.15 from the previous day [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in February was about 43.3 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - **Culling**: In the week of February 26, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 8.78 million, an increase of 42% from the previous week. The average culling age was 501 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - **Sales**: As of the week of February 26, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 4278 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [6] - **Profit**: As of February 26, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.35 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming on February 26 was - 11.85 yuan/chicken, down 1.27 yuan/chicken from the previous week [6] - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of February 26, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08 days from the previous week [6] 3.5 Trading Logic - The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, the overall capacity reduction has weakened due to the recent good egg price. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [7] 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are likely to fluctuate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar prices may show a slightly stronger short - term trend, with a recommendation of buying at low prices and selling at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the short - term, sell put options [8][9][10][11] Group 3: Summary of Each Directory 1. Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,321, down 11 (-0.21%), with a trading volume of 55,537 (an increase of 11,313) and an open interest of 152,115 (an increase of 1,703); SR01 closed at 5,445, down 3 (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 2,379 (an increase of 1,262) and an open interest of 9,307 (an increase of 936); SR05 closed at 5,308, down 13 (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 305,235 (an increase of 15,478) and an open interest of 446,413 (a decrease of 7,031) [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5,390 (unchanged), in Kunming was 5,215 (up 15), in Wuhan was 5,650 (up 20), etc. The basis in different regions also varied, such as 82 in Liuzhou, -93 in Kunming [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was -137 (down 10), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 2), and SR09 - SR01 spread was -124 (down 8) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price was 14.77, with a premium of 0.24 and a freight of 38.50. The in - quota price was 3,869, the out - of - quota price was 4,909, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were 481, 606, and 399 respectively. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price was 14.77, with a premium of 0.85 and a freight of 18.00. The in - quota price was 3,809, the out - of - quota price was 4,831, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were 559, 684, and 477 respectively [3] 2. Market Analysis - **Important Information**: In Yunnan Province, as of February 28, 2026, 52 sugar mills were in operation (the same as last year). The total amount of sugarcane crushed was 12.0182 million tons (compared to 10.9847 million tons in the same period of the previous season), sugar production was 1.4934 million tons (compared to 1.4003 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar production rate was 12.43% (compared to 12.75% in the same period of the previous season), and the cumulative sales of new sugar were 697,500 tons (compared to 722,500 tons last year). In Xinjiang, the 2025/2026 sugar production season ended with a sugar output of 796,000 tons, a decrease of 18,200 tons compared to the 2024/2025 season. In Guangxi, as of March 3, 2026, 3 sugar mills had completed the crushing process, 44 less than the same period last year, and the capacity of the completed mills was 14,000 tons, 390,500 tons less than the same period last year [5][6] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than market expectations. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised down the global sugar production forecast for the 2025/2026 season to 181.29 million tons and the surplus to 1.22 million tons. Considering the start of the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season in April and May, there will be greater supply pressure, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, the sugar - crushing season is at its peak, and domestic sugar production is likely to increase significantly, resulting in supply pressure. However, considering the low sugar prices and the possible tightening of import policies, sugar prices are expected to be influenced by both long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - level oscillation. In the short - term, due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8] 3. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar prices may show a slightly stronger short - term trend, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options in the short - term [11] 4. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple graphs, such as the monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contract months [13][18][21][23][27][29]