期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 21 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：需求存在支撑，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，市场情绪走弱 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：跟随调整后，底部支撑较强 15 | | 股指期货：贴水继续收敛显示后市乐观 3 | | --- | | 蛋白粕：产量维持高位 盘面整体承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价格下跌，郑糖价格走弱 5 | | 油脂板块：整体维持震荡 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面高位回落 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳定为主 9 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：下游补货意愿一般 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 金银：美欧争端升级 金银再创新高 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元指数下行 贵金属板块走强 17 | | 铜：多头动能减弱，铜价高位盘整 18 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The downstream stocking willingness has increased, and textile mills have started to price one by one. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. Although the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information (First Part) - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15145 with a price increase of 5, and the CY05 contract closed at 20515 with a price decrease of 55 [2]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are given, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15856 yuan/ton with a decrease of 75, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21300 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Different types of price spreads are provided, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread is 620 with an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views (Second Part) - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 19, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 35,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33%. The inventory showed a small increase, with Brazilian and American cotton mainly for warehousing and no outbound shipments in the past half - month. The contract trading volume of the 2025/26 cotton season reached 621,520 tons as of January 6, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national output, and the pre - sale volume of the 2026/27 season was at least 73,000 tons [4]. - As of January 17, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 36.34%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the average of the past three years, mainly due to stagnant planting in Bahia and slow planting in Mato Grosso [5]. - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0%. In the 2025/26 season (from September 2025 to December 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The cotton yarn imports in December 2025 were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 15.10% and a year - on - year increase of about 11.9%. The cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 18% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Supported by bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. After the recent significant correction, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate in a short - term range, and Zhengzhou cotton fundamentals remain strong, also expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with generally insufficient new orders and a weak market trading atmosphere. Some spinning mills reported a significant decrease in new orders, mainly fulfilling and digesting previous orders. Although foreign trade orders improved slightly, the boost to the overall market was limited [8]. - The sales of the whole - cotton grey cloth market remained the same as before, with prices mainly stable. In December 2025, the export volume of whole - cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and the export value was 45.68 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 639 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 23.17%, and the cumulative export value was 613 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 9.34%. The import volume in December 2025 was 37.87 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 26.95%, and the import value was 8.57 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.72%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 350 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 15.82%, and the cumulative import value was 78.36 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [9]. 3.3 Options (Third Part) - The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities and other data of several cotton option contracts are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option contract closed at 334 on January 19, 2026, with a price decrease of 16.9% and an implied volatility of 13.3% [11]. - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were different [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667 yesterday, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][14]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments (Fourth Part) - Multiple charts are presented, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the price spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the price spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [25][26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff expectation for platinum and palladium has failed, and they are oscillating at high levels. From a fundamental perspective, platinum has stronger upward momentum than palladium [1][5]. - The market is influenced by multiple factors. The dollar index showed an overall oscillating and strengthening pattern last week, while commodities, especially precious metals, were strong due to geopolitical risks and the temporary weakening of the dollar, but there was some profit - taking over the weekend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Macro - aspect - Last week, three main market lines interacted: the investigation of Powell and the successor turmoil initially pressured the dollar and boosted safe - haven assets; the resilience of economic data supported the dollar in the middle and later stages; geopolitical and trade risks increased the prices of crude oil and safe - haven metals and added uncertainty to global trade policies [5]. Fundamental - aspect - According to the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance state, while palladium is shifting from a supply - demand gap in the past decade to a supply surplus, so platinum has stronger upward drive [5]. News - aspect - President Trump announced a suspension of new tariffs on imported key minerals and will seek agreement negotiations with foreign countries. The tariff expectation has failed to some extent, and the spot rush is expected to ease, but the calculation mechanism of the "minimum import price system" needs continuous attention [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Continuously monitor the adjustment performance and whether there are more negative factors. Currently, precious metals are in a high - level oscillation state. Previous long positions should be moderately closed for profit. It is recommended to wait and see for new unilateral positions (PT: 560 - 670, PD: 450 - 520) [7]. - Arbitrage: After the tariff expectation failed, the price difference between platinum and palladium widened rapidly. The short - term profit space for going long on platinum and short on palladium is expected to be limited. Wait for the price to fall before entering the market [7]. - Options: The time value is too high, so it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 2. Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking Weekly Trading Data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange - As of the close on January 16th, the total open interest of the PT contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 37,858 lots, a decrease of 1,732 lots from the previous period, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 105.2 billion yuan. The total open interest of the PD contract was 14,994 lots, a decrease of 30 lots, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 46.869 billion yuan [25]. Spot Arbitrage - For platinum, there are arbitrage opportunities for buying Shanghai Gold Exchange spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts, and for buying London platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts. For palladium, there are arbitrage opportunities for buying domestic palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts, and for buying London palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts [28][29]. 3. Fundamental Data Tracking Platinum Supply and Demand - In 2026, platinum is expected to be in a basic supply - demand balance. The demand structure is relatively healthy, with stable demand in major fields such as automotive, chemical, and jewelry. There is still potential for an upward breakthrough in the future [34][35]. Palladium Supply and Demand - In 2026, palladium supply is expected to increase by 5.85% year - on - year, while demand is expected to decline by 1.27%, resulting in a supply surplus of 20.37 tons. The fundamental support for palladium prices may be limited in the future [37]. CFTC Positions - As of January 13th, the net long position of platinum asset management institutions was 7,865 contracts (a month - on - month increase of 748 contracts), and the net short position of commercial institutions was 23,806 contracts (a month - on - month decrease of 108 contracts). The net long position of palladium asset management institutions was - 16 contracts (a month - on - month decrease of 96 contracts), and the net short position of commercial institutions was 2,890 contracts (a month - on - month increase of 549 contracts) [41][50]. Inventory - The total CME palladium inventory on January 16th was 207,020.01 troy ounces, a decrease of 4,285.80 troy ounces from January 9th [55]. Lease Rates - There are data on the one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year lease rates for both platinum and palladium, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [60][63].

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,200 | -60 | -1.14% | 24,796 | 8863 | 92,194 | 3139 | | SR01 | | 5,290 | -50 | -0.94% | 209 | 75 | 259 | 142 | | SR05 | | 5,183 | -61 | -1.16% | 239,789 | 22609 | 438,833 | 11536 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5370 | 5195 | 5660 | 5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Considering that the March contract is a post - Spring Festival contract and egg demand is weak after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited. [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.64 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing price fluctuations. [4] - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. [5] - From January 16th, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. [5] - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low. [5] - As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. [6] - As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing. [6] - Today, the national price of slaughtered hens increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. [7] 2. Trading Logic - Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the overall market sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly, which provides some support for the futures market. The egg industry is currently in the process of capacity reduction, and it is expected that the capacity will continue to decline in the next few months. [8] 3. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts at low prices. [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [10]

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 757.0 | 762.5 | -5.5 | I01-I05 | -32.5 | -31.5 | -1.0 | | DCE05 | 789.5 | 794.0 | -4.5 | I05-I09 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 771.5 | 776.5 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 0.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 800 | 815 | -15 | 869 | 98 | 67 | 84 | | 纽曼粉 | 800 | 815 | -15 | 875 | 104 | 73 | 90 | | 麦克粉 | 797 | 812 | -15 | 880 | 110 | 78 | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 【粕类日报】供应仍有压力 盘面小幅反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2026/1/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 2903 | 6 | 天津 | 440 | 420 | 2 0 | | 0 5 | 2736 | 9 | 东莞 | 340 | 350 | -10 | | 0 9 | 2853 | 5 | 张家港 | 330 | 330 | 0 | | | | | 日照 | 350 | 350 | 0 | | 0 1 菜粕 | 2217 | 0 | 南通 | 251 | 259 | - 8 | | 0 5 | 2229 | 8 | 广东 | 151 | 149 | 2 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 20, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5552, up 0.07% with an increase of 15,954 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5760, down 0.83% with a decrease of 13,668 in open interest [5] - The valuation of ferroalloys is not high, and cost support is relatively strong. They can be considered as long - positions when the price is low. For arbitrage, it's recommended to wait and see, and for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: - SF main contract: closed at 5552, daily change of 4, weekly change of - 130, trading volume of 148,515 (daily increase of 33,826), open interest of 229,601 (daily increase of 15,954) - SM main contract: closed at 5798, daily change of - 10, weekly change of - 118, trading volume of 140,554 (daily increase of 17,264), open interest of 215,166 (daily decrease of 13,668) [3] - **Spot Market**: - Silicon - iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5320, down 50 daily and 130 weekly; in Ningxia at 5320, unchanged daily and down 100 weekly; in Qinghai at 5300, down 50 daily and 50 weekly etc. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5680, down 20 daily and 70 weekly; in Ningxia at 5570, down 30 daily and 80 weekly etc. [3] - **Basis/Spread**: - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 232, daily change of - 54, weekly change of 0 etc. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 118, daily change of - 10, weekly change of 48 etc. - SF - SM spread was - 246, daily change of 14, weekly change of - 12 [3] - **Raw Materials**: - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 41.8, unchanged daily and down 0.2 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, down 0.1 daily, unchanged weekly etc. - Blue charcoal small materials: in Shaanxi it was 770, unchanged daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840, unchanged daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750, unchanged daily and weekly [3] 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: - **Silicon - iron**: On the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 50 yuan/ton drop. In the short - term, the operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of future supply decline due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Although there was an accidental production cut at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas was stable to weak recently, and the cooling of the commodity market sentiment dragged down silicon - iron, but its valuation is not high, so it can be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Manganese - silicon**: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable to weak, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port dropping 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and the manganese - silicon spot in some regions dropping 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of 2025, so the overall supply was stable. Similar to silicon - iron, the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation of manganese - silicon is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can also be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Overall Strategy**: For single - side trading, ferroalloys can be long - positions when the price is low; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - **Important Information**: - On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port (Mn37.19%Fe4.32%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn41.3%Fe 7.4%) was 38.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 3.2742 million tons, a 21.53% increase from November and a 28.27% increase from December of the previous year [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of SF and SM, basis of SF and SM, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, electricity prices for ferroalloys, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][10][12][14][17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Livestock Daily - Pig Report" [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The pressure on pig slaughter has decreased, and the spot price is gradually declining [1] - The overall supply of the pig market remains sufficient, and the future spot price is expected to be mainly downward [3][5] - The futures price of pigs continued to decline today, and the overall upward sustainability may be relatively limited [5] Group 4: Market Data Summary - **Spot Prices**: Today, pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price remained unchanged at 13.03 yuan/kg, with prices in most regions experiencing a decline [3] - **Futures Prices**: Most futures contracts showed a downward trend, with LH01 down 110 yuan to 12,030 yuan, LH03 down 155 yuan to 11,550 yuan, etc. Only LH09 increased by 20 yuan to 13,450 yuan [3] - **Sow/Piglet Prices**: Piglet prices rose from 330 yuan last week to 352 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1,557 yuan [3] - **Spot Breeding Profits**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising increased from - 11.54 yuan to 7.39 yuan, and the profit for purchasing piglets increased from - 2.31 yuan to 48.35 yuan [3] - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter volume decreased from 191,453 heads yesterday to 186,611 heads today, a decrease of 4,842 heads [3] - **Pig Price Spreads**: The spreads between different sizes of pigs showed certain changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.03 yuan, and the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.02 yuan [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

第一部分 市场信息 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 20 日 螺纹热卷日报 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 期权：建议观望。 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3250 元（-10），北京敬业 3150 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3280 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面持续下跌走势，黑色中煤焦领跌，现货成交整体一般偏弱，盘面下 行，投机情绪较差。上周钢联数据公布，五大材小幅增产，受钢厂检修影响铁水有所 下滑，其中螺纹减产而热卷增产；钢材总库存有所去化，其中螺纹社库累积而厂库下 滑，说明钢厂加大减产力度，但社会需求进一步下滑，而热轧总体仍然去库，随着热 卷的复产，厂库去化速度比社库更慢；下游工地资金到位情况有所回升，临近年末， 房建项目回款情况略好于非房建，但基建项目差于去年同期，上周天气回暖，导致螺 纹表需修复；年前制造业存在补库 ...