Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and the peanut futures will continue to fluctuate strongly. The 01 peanut contract will still fluctuate strongly. The new - season peanut production is expected to be the same as last year, and the planting cost has decreased. Some peanuts have started to be listed [5][11]. - The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is acceptable [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7982, down 62 (-0.78%), with a trading volume increase of 139.87% to 367 and an open interest decrease of 2.37% to 1,357; PK601 closed at 7880, down 78 (-0.99%), with a trading volume increase of 1.68% to 102,358 and an open interest increase of 0.14% to 199,817. PK510 had no valid data [3]. - **Spot Market**: In Henan Nanyang, the peanut price was 8800; in Shandong Jining and Linyi, it was 8400. The prices of imported Sudanese rice and Senegalese rice were 8500 and 7800 respectively. The price of peanut oil was 14580, and the price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8540. The prices of all these remained unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was 920, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 520. The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 102, down 16 [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Price**: In the Northeast, the price of peanuts was relatively strong, with the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin rising to 4.15 yuan/jin and that in Changtu, Liaoning rising to 4.2 yuan/jin. In Henan, the price was stable, with the price of Baisha common peanuts at 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin. The prices of imported peanuts were also stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively strong in the short - term [5]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: Some peanut oil mills started to purchase today. The mainstream transaction price before suspension of purchase was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 7920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of by - product peanut meal was relatively weak in the short - term [5][9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: For 01 and 05 peanuts in low - level oscillations, light - position short - term long positions can be considered [12]. - **Spread Trading**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [13]. - **Options Trading**: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - There are six charts showing the historical price trends of Shandong peanut spot, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot - futures basis, and spreads between different peanut contracts, with data from 2022 - 2025 [16][19][24][27]

股指期货数据日报 2025年10月21日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7344.05 | 1.45% | 23,725 | | 9 | % | 3,482 | 6 % | | | | | | | IM2511 | 7261.00 | 1.77% | 44,744 | | -1% | | 649 | 1 % | | 72,051 | 985 | | 126 | | IM2512 | 7182.80 | 1.83% | 151,318 | | 5 | % | 2,171 | 7 % | | 190,486 | 832 | | 328 | | IM2603 | 6966.80 | 1.90% | 26,613 | | -6% | | 370 | - ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report, October 21, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market fluctuated widely, closing at 2268 (-12/-53%) [3] - Spot Market: Various regions had different price quotes, e.g., Inner Mongolia南线 at 2050 yuan/ton, North Line at 2000 yuan/ton, etc. [3] Group 3: Important Information - Northwest Methanol Orders: The weekly signed orders (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest reached 63,000 tons (6.30 million tons), an increase of 44,300 tons (4.43 million tons) from the previous statistical date, a 236.90% increase [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply was continuously abundant with high and stable methanol operating rates [5] - Import: The US dollar price was stable, the import premium widened, Iranian gas was not restricted yet, most Iranian plants were operating normally, non - Iranian operating rates increased, and the overseas operating rate was high [5] - Demand: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season with falling operating rates, while MTO device operating rates rebounded [5] - Inventory: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong, and inland enterprise inventories fluctuated slightly [5] - Overall Situation: The methanol market was mainly in a weak and volatile state under the background of high inventory, with various influencing factors such as coal prices, MTO demand, and international situations [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [9] Group 6: Related Charts - Inventory Charts: Showed historical data of methanol port total inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, sample enterprise total inventory, etc. [10] - Operating Rate Charts: Displayed historical data of coal single - methanol operating rate, coke oven gas operating rate, coal - to - olefin operating rate, etc. [14]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, but the production remains high. The US corn price has declined and may continue to adjust downward. The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the Brazilian import price in December at 2,136 yuan. The northern port flat - price is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is strong. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The new - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize and rebound, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin in late October [4][7]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch spot price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 1.199 million tons, a monthly increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, and the enterprise has made a profit. The 01 starch contract has rebounded with corn, but the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, and the corn starch spot price will also fall later. It is expected that the 01 starch contract will trade in a narrow range following corn in the short term [8]. - The US corn is expected to rebound, and the yield may continue to be lowered, but with an expected increase in production, it will still trade in a narrow range. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the supply period will be extended. The corn spot price will bottom - out and fluctuate. The large - scale listing of Jilin corn at the end of October may bring short - term pressure relief, and the corn price may rebound in the short term. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The market is currently trading on the weakening of selling pressure in the Northeast, and the port spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 corn contract is bottom - out and fluctuating, and the corn spot price still has room to fall [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: The C2601 contract rose 0.28% to 2,144 yuan, with a trading volume of 597,677 and a decrease of 11.20%, and an open interest of 849,415 with an increase of 6.13%. The CS2601 contract rose 0.78% to 2,429 yuan, with a trading volume of 144,253 and an increase of 53.93%, and an open interest of 200,536 with an increase of 7.48%. Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, and the basis is 53 yuan. The spot price of starch in Jiajie is 2,800 yuan, and the basis is 250 yuan. Different regions have different spot prices and basis values [2]. - **Spreads**: The C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 121 yuan, and the CS01 - CS05 spread of starch is 12 yuan. There are also spreads and their changes in other combinations [2]. 2. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn situation, China's tariff policy, import profit, port and regional spot price trends, wheat - corn price relationship, and breeding demand are factors affecting the corn market. The short - term corn spot price is relatively stable, but there are still uncertainties such as the selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has increased, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise has made a profit. The short - term starch price will follow the corn price trend [8]. 3. Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations. Two option contracts, C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE, are listed with their corresponding underlying prices, closing prices, and price changes [14]. 4. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different varieties and contracts [16][18][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on factors such as macro - environment, seasonal changes, and policy impacts [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Bean Meal**: The macro - environment affects the market. International soybean pressure is high, and domestic bean meal may face supply pressure and price decline. Suggestions include shorting the 05 contract, conducting M11 - 1 positive arbitrage, and selling call options at high points [17]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are weak, and domestic sugar is expected to follow. It is recommended to short at high prices [20][21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is advisable to wait and consider going long on dips [24][25]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain prices are rebounding, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile. It is recommended to go long on the 12, 01, 05, and 07 contracts [28][29]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure persists, and prices may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and use a short - straddle strategy for options [30][32]. - **Peanuts**: There is a reduction in production, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [34]. - **Eggs**: Demand is fair, but the egg price is still under pressure. It is recommended to close out short positions and wait [38]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [41][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: New cotton acquisition is accelerating, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait [45]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Demand is weak, and valuations are low. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to conduct long - short spread arbitrage on the volume - screw difference [48][49]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on dips for coking coal [51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and conduct cash - futures reverse arbitrage [52][54]. - **Ferroalloys**: Demand is expected to be weak, but valuations and costs provide support. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [55][56]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Due to the U.S. government shutdown and high expectations of Fed rate cuts, precious metals are expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options [59][60][63]. - **Copper**: The market is expected to consolidate in the short term, and the long - term trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct cross - market positive arbitrage [64][65]. - **Alumina**: Supply is showing marginal changes, and prices are expected to bottom - out at low levels. It is recommended to wait and observe [69][71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips [74][76]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to be strong and volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips [78]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and observe. Consider short - selling LME zinc and buying SHFE zinc if the ratio deteriorates [84]. - **Lead**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [86][89]. - **Nickel**: Accumulating inventories indicate an oversupply, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the shock range and sell a wide - straddle option combination [89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Demand is weak, and prices may be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and observe [94][95]. Other Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a full correction [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to avoid long positions in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Demand provides support, and supply has risks. Lithium prices are expected to rise [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic urea market is currently characterized by a loose supply - demand situation. Although the export window is about to close and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. With the end of autumn fertilizer demand in North and Central China, the overall demand is declining. In the short term, the domestic demand remains limited, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The fundamental situation is still loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1600 (unchanged, 0% change) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were stable to slightly lower, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1490 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1400 - 1470 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On October 20th, the daily urea production in the industry was 182,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 6600 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.99%, a decrease of 6.83 percentage points compared to 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Market Sentiment and Price Forecast**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price led the decline, and the market sentiment was average. It is expected that the ex - factory price will be weakly stable. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory price followed the decline. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and it is expected to decline mainly. - **Supply and Demand**: Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production decreased to around 187,000 tons. On the demand side, the result of the Indian tender was about to be announced. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was large, the export window was about to close. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was basically over, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 170,000 tons to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Short on rebounds. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The late - maturing Fuji apples are expected to have a low premium fruit rate, with a high opening price and high costs for making futures warehouse receipts. The futures market price is expected to remain in a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term [10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 7.01, down 0.08. Some apple prices, like the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, remained unchanged [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8862, up 240; AP05 closed at 9324, up 607; AP10 closed at 9400, up 220. The spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [3]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News** - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 14.79 million tons, a decrease of 6.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 684 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The cumulative export volume from January to August was about 5.327 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. The import volume in August was 118 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 984 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6]. - In Shandong, apple trading prices were stable last Friday. Over the weekend, apple procurement began in Shandong, but the overall quality of the fruits sold by farmers was average and the trading volume was low. In the northwest, the amount of tradable apples increased after the rain stopped [7]. - The profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia for the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8]. - In Shandong, new - season paper - bagged Fuji apples started to be purchased in small quantities, with low trading volume and varying purchase prices. In Shaanxi, the ordering price of apples in Luochuan was stable, and the enthusiasm for ordering high - quality apples was relatively high [9]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to small fruit sizes in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rain, the premium fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji apples is expected to be low, leading to high opening prices and high costs for making futures warehouse receipts [10]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The apple futures market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term due to the expected low premium fruit rate [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Third Part: Related Attachments The section includes multiple charts showing historical data of apple prices, basis, spreads, arrival volumes, cold - storage inventory, and cold - storage outbound volume from 2019 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [14][15][17]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13465 with a gain of 130, volume of 289,731 (increase of 109660), and open interest of 592,998 (increase of 6531); CF05 closed at 13530 with a gain of 140, volume of 82,594 (increase of 42113), and open interest of 196,748 (increase of 18170); CF09 closed at 13700 with a gain of 135, volume of 635 (increase of 136), and open interest of 1,918 (increase of 238); CY01 closed at 19605 with a gain of 135, volume of 13680 (increase of 1115), and open interest of 22155 (increase of 1484); CY05 closed at 19720 with a gain of 130, volume of 7 (increase of 7), and open interest of 20 (increase of 2); CY09 closed at 19900 with a gain of 155, volume of 1 (increase of 1), and open interest of 4 (no change) [3] - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 14679 yuan/ton (up 15), CY IndexC32S was 20440 (no change), Cot A was 75.10 cents/pound, FCY IndexC33S was 21218 (up 4), (FC Index):M: to - port price was 73.40 (no change), Indian S - 6 was 55800 (no change), polyester staple fiber was 7450 (up 70), pure polyester yarn T32S was 10950 (down 50), viscose staple fiber was 13000 (no change), and viscose yarn R30S was 17250 (no change) [3] - Spreads: Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was - 65 (down 10), 5 - 9 month spread was - 170 (up 5), 9 - 1 month spread was 235 (up 5);棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was - 115 (up 5), 5 - 9 month spread was - 180 (down 25), 9 - 1 month spread was 295 (up 20); CY01 - CF01 spread was 6140 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6190 (down 10), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6200 (up 20); 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 3224 (up 1852), sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 1609 (up 1094), internal - external yarn spread was - 778 (down 4) [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On October 20, 2025, the Xinjiang - outbound cotton road transport price index was 0.1797 yuan/ton·km, up 0.06% month - on - month. Transport demand and capacity resources both decreased slightly, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [6] - In September 2025, China's cotton cloth imports were 3628.19 million meters (up 17.58% year - on - year, down 8.28% month - on - month), 4603.92 tons (up 11.63% year - on - year, down 0.32% month - on - month), and the import value was 28.0053 million US dollars (down 2.47% year - on - year, up 2.23% month - on - month) [6] - As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 27% slower than the same period last year. Upland cotton inspection volume was 376,100 tons (13.37% progress, 27% slower), and Pima cotton inspection volume was 600 tons (1% progress, 92% slower) [6] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition stage, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production is high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to buy. Some acquisition prices are around 6 yuan/kg. As new cotton is widely available, there will be selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and the boost to the futures market will be limited [7] Trading Strategy - Single - side: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a volatile trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - From last week's market sales, fabric mills reported that trading in October was worse than in September. Fabric mills generally expect to maintain just - in - time sales in October, and the market is unlikely to exceed that in September. Currently, the operating rate of knitting circular machine factories in the Guangdong market is mostly 20% - 30%, and the probability of a rebound in the operating rate is high. Fabric mills have low expectations for the market in the second half of the month [8] - On Friday night, Zhengzhou cotton opened and closed higher, and cotton yarn futures followed suit, with the market warming up. There was little change in the trading of pure cotton yarn over the weekend [9] Group 3: Options - Option data: On October 20, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 199.00 (up 40.1%); for CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 53.00 (down 36.9%); for CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 17.00 (down 20.5%) [12] - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on this day was 8.542, with a slight decline compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7151, and the volume PCR was 0.7237. Both call and put option volumes increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread and CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [13][18][19][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the live pig prices across the country showed a slight rebound, but the overall supply pressure remained high. Although the entry of secondary fattening has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, the overall demand was still weak, and the pig market remained in a state of loose supply and demand, with prices expected to face certain pressure. The futures prices are also expected to decline as the spot prices are likely to continue to fall [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The supply pressure of live pigs has improved slightly due to the increase in the number of secondary fattening, but the overall supply pressure remains high. The demand is still weak, with high slaughter volume, increasing frozen product inventory, and a decline in the fresh - sales rate. The futures prices are expected to decline as the spot prices are likely to continue to fall [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Continue to short on rallies. - Arbitrage: LH15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Pig Prices - This week, the live pig prices across the country showed a rebound trend. The prices in most regions increased, except for a decline in South China. The entry of secondary fattening supported the pig prices to some extent [12]. 3.3 Changes in Slaughter and Consumption 3.3.1 Slaughter Situation - The weekly live pig slaughter volume remained high. Large - scale enterprises and ordinary farmers had high slaughter enthusiasm. The entry of secondary fattening increased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly to 128.25 kg. The subsequent market pressure is expected to remain high [13]. 3.3.2 Consumption Situation - The weekly live pig demand was still weak. The slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the fresh - sales rate decreased, and the subsequent demand is expected to face certain pressure [13]. 3.4 Breeding Profits - As of the week of October 17, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 375.29 yuan per head, a decrease of 74.25 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit declined due to the significant drop in pig prices [20]. 3.5 Prices of Sows and Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets this week was 173 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from the previous week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 266 yuan per head, a decrease of 14 yuan per head from the previous week. The price of sows was 1545 yuan per head, a decrease of 18 yuan per head from the previous week. The culling enthusiasm of sows was average [23]. 3.6 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - In September, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased month - on - month according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Overall, the inventory of reproductive sows showed a downward trend due to continuous breeding losses [26].

Group 1: Market Outlook for Each Metal Copper - Market Review: On October 20, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 6,102 lots to 536,600 lots. Spot copper prices had a stable bottom - support, with Shanghai spot copper at a premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong inventory decreased after the weekend, but downstream procurement was sluggish due to high prices. The North China market was mainly for rigid - demand and long - term order delivery, with low activity [2]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations eased, and the 3rd Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee was in focus. Fundamentally, supply - side disturbances in copper mines increased, with expectations of processing fees dropping to 0 dollars/ton or lower next year. SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons, a decrease of 38,500 tons from the previous month. Consumption showed a marginal weakening, but rigid demand was resilient [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach, be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads, take profit when the export window opens, and then enter positive spreads again. Consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [8]. Alumina - Market Review: The Alumina 2601 contract rose 4 yuan to 2,806 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with some regions experiencing price drops [9]. - Logic Analysis: The previous supply - demand surplus in alumina was absorbed by downstream electrolytic aluminum plant stockpiling, but as stockpiling was completed, the surplus became more significant. Some production cuts and maintenance started in October, and more were expected in November [12]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Keep an eye on supply - side changes. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,272 lots to 487,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions also declined [14]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. Economic data releases and important Chinese meetings were in focus. Fundamentally, consumption resilience supported prices [17]. - Trading Strategy: With improved macro - expectations, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum prices, be cautious about chasing high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2512 contract fell 125 yuan to 20,350 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 107 lots. Spot prices in different regions remained stable [22]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supported costs, but high social inventory and warehouse receipts might suppress the upside. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [26]. - Trading Strategy: With improved tariff panic, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum alloy prices, which are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract fell 0.34% to 21,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 7,322 lots to 236,600 lots. Spot trading in Shanghai was mainly among traders, with downstream enterprises having low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. - Logic Analysis: At the mine end, import losses of zinc ore increased, and domestic processing fees declined. At the smelting end, although profits were narrowed, smelters' enthusiasm remained high. Consumption was expected to weaken as the traditional peak season passed. An external - strong and internal - weak pattern was likely to continue [35]. - Trading Strategy: Partially liquidate profitable short positions and re - short at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [37]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2512 contract rose 0.12% to 17,090 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 1,361 lots to 81,300 lots. Spot prices increased slightly, and downstream battery manufacturers had a certain purchasing willingness [39]. - Logic Analysis: With the resumption of production of secondary lead and the increase in primary lead production in mid - to - late October, lead supply might increase, and prices were at risk of falling [41]. - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42]. Nickel - Market Review: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 fell 630 yuan to 120,860 yuan/ton, with the index adding 7,691 lots. Spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel increased, while those of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained stable [44]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment became more volatile. Although nickel ore prices provided cost support, the supply - demand surplus was difficult to reverse. Nickel prices were expected to oscillate widely with a downward trend [47]. - Trading Strategy: Short when prices rebound to the upper limit of the oscillation range. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 fell 20 yuan to 12,595 yuan/ton, with the index reducing 5,239 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were at certain levels [52]. - Logic Analysis: The spot price was below the steel mill's cost. Terminal demand in October was still not optimistic, and steel mills might further cut production. Stainless steel was likely to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern [53]. - Trading Strategy: Expect weak oscillations. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage [56]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 279,340 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan/ton or 0.72%, with positions decreasing by 1,300 lots to 63,665 lots. Spot prices were stable, and downstream purchasing improved slightly [59]. - Logic Analysis: Trade uncertainties and concerns in the US credit market pressured LME metals. Although Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining, the impact on tin production was limited. Supply was still tight, and demand recovered slowly. Tin prices were expected to oscillate weakly [61]. - Trading Strategy: Tin prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to macro - disturbances. Temporarily hold off on options trading [62]. Industrial Silicon - Logic Analysis: In November, polysilicon production cuts would be negative for industrial silicon demand. Before large - scale production cuts in Southwest industrial silicon plants, there was a slight surplus, and prices were under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, price support might appear after production cuts in November [67]. - Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for a full correction. There are no arbitrage and option strategies for now [68]. Polysilicon - Logic Analysis: In November, leading manufacturers' production cuts would significantly improve the supply - demand balance. Currently, with no further news on capacity integration, some funds left the market, and the futures price might correct further [75]. - Strategy Suggestion: Avoid long positions in the short term. Hold reverse spreads of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3300, - 3000). Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, take profit on the put option and hold the call option [77]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The Lithium Carbonate 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 75,940 yuan/ton, with the index adding 387 lots and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 19 to 30,705 tons. Spot prices increased [81]. - Logic Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and lithium ore prices also increased. Although imports in September decreased, demand was strong, and prices might rise further if supply risks occurred [83]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [86]. Group 2: Important Industry Data Copper - Inventory: As of October 20, SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 9,100 tons to 186,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Imported copper supply was expected to continue, while domestic supply was expected to decrease. Consumption was expected to slightly recover, and weekly inventory might decrease [3]. - Production: Zijin Mining's copper production from January to September was 830,000 tons, up 5% year - on - year. In Q3, production was 260,000 tons, down 6% quarter - on - quarter [6]. - Trade: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,586,873.52 tons, down 6.24% month - on - month but up 6.43% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, up 21.76% month - on - month and 7.44% year - on - year [3][4]. Alumina - Inventory: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, up 115,000 tons from the previous week. Some electrolytic aluminum plants increased long - term order execution and spot purchases, but transportation issues affected inventory distribution [11]. - Trade: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, up 36.5% month - on - month and 82.3% year - on - year; imported 60,000 tons, down 36.4% month - on - month but up 61.7% year - on - year [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Inventory: On October 20, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 620,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday [16]. - Production: From January to September, real estate development data showed a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area [16]. Zinc - Inventory: As of October 20, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [31]. - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 505,400 tons of zinc concentrates, up 8.15% month - on - month and 24.94% year - on - year; imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc, down 11.6% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [31][32]. Lead - Inventory: As of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, up 1,800 tons from October 13 [40]. - Trade: In September 2025, lead concentrate imports increased 11.72% month - on - month but decreased 7.21% year - on - year. Refined lead exports decreased 46% month - on - month, and imports decreased 17.17% month - on - month [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 19,596.90 tons of lithium carbonate, down 10.30% month - on - month but up 20.49% year - on - year; exported 150.82 tons, down 59.12% month - on - month and 9.08% year - on - year [82].