研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 【粕类日报】供应仍有压力 盘面小幅反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2026/1/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 2903 | 6 | 天津 | 440 | 420 | 2 0 | | 0 5 | 2736 | 9 | 东莞 | 340 | 350 | -10 | | 0 9 | 2853 | 5 | 张家港 | 330 | 330 | 0 | | | | | 日照 | 350 | 350 | 0 | | 0 1 菜粕 | 2217 | 0 | 南通 | 251 | 259 | - 8 | | 0 5 | 2229 | 8 | 广东 | 151 | 149 | 2 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 20, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5552, up 0.07% with an increase of 15,954 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5760, down 0.83% with a decrease of 13,668 in open interest [5] - The valuation of ferroalloys is not high, and cost support is relatively strong. They can be considered as long - positions when the price is low. For arbitrage, it's recommended to wait and see, and for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: - SF main contract: closed at 5552, daily change of 4, weekly change of - 130, trading volume of 148,515 (daily increase of 33,826), open interest of 229,601 (daily increase of 15,954) - SM main contract: closed at 5798, daily change of - 10, weekly change of - 118, trading volume of 140,554 (daily increase of 17,264), open interest of 215,166 (daily decrease of 13,668) [3] - **Spot Market**: - Silicon - iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5320, down 50 daily and 130 weekly; in Ningxia at 5320, unchanged daily and down 100 weekly; in Qinghai at 5300, down 50 daily and 50 weekly etc. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5680, down 20 daily and 70 weekly; in Ningxia at 5570, down 30 daily and 80 weekly etc. [3] - **Basis/Spread**: - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 232, daily change of - 54, weekly change of 0 etc. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 118, daily change of - 10, weekly change of 48 etc. - SF - SM spread was - 246, daily change of 14, weekly change of - 12 [3] - **Raw Materials**: - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 41.8, unchanged daily and down 0.2 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, down 0.1 daily, unchanged weekly etc. - Blue charcoal small materials: in Shaanxi it was 770, unchanged daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840, unchanged daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750, unchanged daily and weekly [3] 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: - **Silicon - iron**: On the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 50 yuan/ton drop. In the short - term, the operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of future supply decline due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Although there was an accidental production cut at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas was stable to weak recently, and the cooling of the commodity market sentiment dragged down silicon - iron, but its valuation is not high, so it can be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Manganese - silicon**: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable to weak, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port dropping 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and the manganese - silicon spot in some regions dropping 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of 2025, so the overall supply was stable. Similar to silicon - iron, the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation of manganese - silicon is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can also be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Overall Strategy**: For single - side trading, ferroalloys can be long - positions when the price is low; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - **Important Information**: - On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port (Mn37.19%Fe4.32%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn41.3%Fe 7.4%) was 38.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 3.2742 million tons, a 21.53% increase from November and a 28.27% increase from December of the previous year [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of SF and SM, basis of SF and SM, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, electricity prices for ferroalloys, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][10][12][14][17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Livestock Daily - Pig Report" [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The pressure on pig slaughter has decreased, and the spot price is gradually declining [1] - The overall supply of the pig market remains sufficient, and the future spot price is expected to be mainly downward [3][5] - The futures price of pigs continued to decline today, and the overall upward sustainability may be relatively limited [5] Group 4: Market Data Summary - **Spot Prices**: Today, pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price remained unchanged at 13.03 yuan/kg, with prices in most regions experiencing a decline [3] - **Futures Prices**: Most futures contracts showed a downward trend, with LH01 down 110 yuan to 12,030 yuan, LH03 down 155 yuan to 11,550 yuan, etc. Only LH09 increased by 20 yuan to 13,450 yuan [3] - **Sow/Piglet Prices**: Piglet prices rose from 330 yuan last week to 352 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1,557 yuan [3] - **Spot Breeding Profits**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising increased from - 11.54 yuan to 7.39 yuan, and the profit for purchasing piglets increased from - 2.31 yuan to 48.35 yuan [3] - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter volume decreased from 191,453 heads yesterday to 186,611 heads today, a decrease of 4,842 heads [3] - **Pig Price Spreads**: The spreads between different sizes of pigs showed certain changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.03 yuan, and the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.02 yuan [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

第一部分 市场信息 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 20 日 螺纹热卷日报 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 期权：建议观望。 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3250 元（-10），北京敬业 3150 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3280 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面持续下跌走势，黑色中煤焦领跌，现货成交整体一般偏弱，盘面下 行，投机情绪较差。上周钢联数据公布，五大材小幅增产，受钢厂检修影响铁水有所 下滑，其中螺纹减产而热卷增产；钢材总库存有所去化，其中螺纹社库累积而厂库下 滑，说明钢厂加大减产力度，但社会需求进一步下滑，而热轧总体仍然去库，随着热 卷的复产，厂库去化速度比社库更慢；下游工地资金到位情况有所回升，临近年末， 房建项目回款情况略好于非房建，但基建项目差于去年同期，上周天气回暖，导致螺 纹表需修复；年前制造业存在补库 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8032, up 36. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8552, 8602, and 8422 respectively. The spot basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8748, up 100. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8718, 8738, and 8878 respectively. The spot basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -10, and 130 respectively, with the latter two up 10 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8948, up 46. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9778, 9548. The spot basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 830 and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread - **Soybean Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was 124, up 4 [2]. - **Palm Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was 32, up 6 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was -27, down 6 [2]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -716, down 64 [2]. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 916, up 10 [2]. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 200, down 54 [2]. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.94, up 0.004 [2]. Import Profit - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -163, with a CNF price of 1068 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1338, with an FOB price of 1030 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 3, 2026, in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 74.6, last week was 96.3, and last year's same - period was 102.5 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.6, last week was 46.9 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 27.5, last week was 25.1, and last year's same - period was 55.2 [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Indonesia postponed the B50 policy, facing challenges such as stabilizing the biodiesel fund, narrowing the cost gap between biodiesel and traditional diesel, and solving logistics, infrastructure, and operational preparation issues [4]. - Malaysia is in a more favorable position in crude palm oil exports due to lower export tariffs, while Indonesia's high export tax increases export costs and may limit price competitiveness [4]. Domestic Market (P/Y/OI) - **Palm Oil**: The futures price closed up more than 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.61 million tons, up 1.01 million tons from last week, a 1.37% increase. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86%. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 96.33 million tons, down 6.18 million tons from last week, a 6.03% decrease. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 2.4 million tons. The import profit inversion has widened to around -1300. The short - term price of the near - month contract may have limited downside [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term oil prices are fluctuating, with many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis, monthly spread, cross - variety spread of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][16][19][23]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Shipping Research Report - Shipping Daily - Date: January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - **Contract Performance**: EC2602 closed at 1,710.0, down 0.25%; EC2604 at 1,112.6, down 1.73%; EC2606 at 1,317.4, down 0.05%; EC2608 at 1,467.9, up 0.61%; EC2610 at 1,052.9, down 0.11%; EC2612 at 1,318.0, up 1.38% [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: Volume and open interest of different contracts showed various increases and decreases, such as EC2602 volume down 14.46% and open interest down 13.42% [4] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., EC02 - EC04 spread was 597, up 15.3 [4] Container Freight Rates - **SCFIS and SCFI Index**: SCFIS European Line was 1954.19, down 0.11% week - on - week and 29.89% year - on - year; SCFI Comprehensive Index was 1574.12, down 4.45% week - on - week and 37.17% year - on - year. Different routes had different price changes, like SCFI Shanghai - Europe was 1676, down 2.50% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year [4] Fuel Cost - WTI crude oil near - month contract was $59.26 per barrel, down 0.34% week - on - week and 23.17% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month contract was $63.41 per barrel, down 0.05% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market is still debating the future decline and trend of off - season freight rates. The EC market is in a weak oscillation. The spot freight rate is at the top - falling stage. The export tax - rebate - driven rush shipment may delay the decline but is hard to reverse it [6] - The spot freight rate inflection point has emerged. MSK's WK6 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote dropped by $400/HC compared to last week. The demand is reaching a peak and then declining, and the supply has little change in the short term. The traditional off - season is from February to March, but the upcoming cancellation of export tax - rebate policy may lead to a rush shipment [6][7] - CMA decided to divert ships on some routes via the Cape of Good Hope due to geopolitical instability, which is expected to repair the backwardation of far - month contracts [6][7] Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances and uncertainties in the rush - shipment strength. The far - month contracts are expected to repair the backwardation [9] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread long position [9] Group 4: Industry News - There are various geopolitical news, including issues related to Greenland, the US President's hope for a Gaza agreement, Israel - Iran relations, and the non - attendance of the Iranian Foreign Minister at the Davos Forum [10][11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is relatively strong in the short - term, and the import peanut price is stable. The supply of peanuts is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the cost of warehouse receipts is expected to be relatively high. The spot prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable, and the theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is good [3][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. First Part - Data - **Futures盘面**: For PK604, the closing price is 7864, up 22 (0.28%), with a trading volume of 21,251 (-26.64%) and an open interest of 28,459 (-2.96%); for PK610, the closing price is 8208, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 48 (-72.41%) and an open interest of 2,749 (-0.54%); for PK601, some data are unavailable [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal is 3250, with no change, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal is 3090, down 10. The price of peanut oil is 14320, with no change, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil is 8430, up 50. The import price of Sudanese peanuts is 8600, with no change. The PK04 - PK10 spread is - 344, up 20 [1] 2. Second Part - Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is relatively strong. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts is 8600 yuan/ton, the price of Brazilian new peanuts is 9200 yuan/ton, and the price of Indian specification peanuts (50/60) is 8000 yuan/ton, all remaining stable. The price of peanuts in Henan has increased by 0.05 yuan/jin. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil are also stable. The price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal per unit of protein is low, and peanut meal is relatively strong in the short term [3][5] 3. Third Part - Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Peanut 05 will fluctuate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long lightly at low prices [8] - **Monthly Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] 4. Fourth Part - Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The US corn report is bearish, but the global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,142 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased due to weather, the corn spot price has risen, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is stable, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. The supply of corn in the Northeast is still low, the price is strong, farmers are still reluctant to sell, the port inventory is low, and the purchase price at northern ports is stable today. The 03 contract is in high - level oscillation, and the spot basis has strengthened. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has decreased, the spot price of corn in Shandong has risen, the starch price in Shandong is around 2,780 yuan, and the spot price of starch in the Northeast is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. The 03 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn. The North China corn price is relatively stable in January, the starch spot price will still rise, but the futures price is at a large premium to the spot price, so it is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - It is expected that US corn will oscillate at the bottom. The North China corn price continues to rise due to weather, the Northeast corn price is relatively stable, and farmers' reluctance to sell is starting to ease. The spot price is still relatively stable in the short term, and the purchase price at northern ports is stable today. The North China wheat price is strong due to weather, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is starting to widen. The market is currently trading on the increase in corn sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for the 03 corn contract to fall [8]. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, the closing prices are 2,243, 2,272, and 2,291 respectively, with price changes of 2, 0, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.09%, 0.00%, and - 0.09%. The trading volumes are 624, 171,755, and 7,344, with change rates of 8.33%, 28.37%, and - 10.97%. The open interests are 714, 657,841, and 57,729, with change rates of 66.82%, 0.98%, and - 0.77%. For corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, the closing prices are 2,572, 2,586, and 2,616 respectively, with price changes of - 1, - 4, and - 4, and price change rates of - 0.04%, - 0.15%, and - 0.15%. The trading volumes are 4, 14,332, and 161, with change rates of DIV/0!, 41.28%, and - 15.26%. The open interests are 1, 61,040, and 2,916, with change rates of DIV/0!, 5.57%, and - 1.12% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2,150, 2,200, 2,360, 2,312, 2,335, 2,410, and 2,450 respectively. The price changes are 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, - 10, and - 10. The basis values are - 141, - 91, 69, 21, 63, 119, and 159. For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2,730, 2,700, 2,700, 2,860, 2,800, 2,900, and 2,800 respectively. The price changes are all 0. The basis values are 144, 114, 114, 274, 214, 314, and 214 [2]. - **Spreads**: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 29 with a change of 2, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a change of 2, and C09 - C01 is 48 with a change of - 4. For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 14 with a change of 3, CS05 - CS09 is - 30 with a change of 0, and CS09 - CS01 is 44 with a change of - 3. For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 325 with a change of - 2, CS01 - C01 is 329 with a change of - 3, and CS05 - C05 is 314 with a change of - 4 [2]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn report is bearish, but supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The North China corn supply has decreased due to weather, the price has risen, and the price difference with Northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the North China wheat price is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, the downstream feed enterprise inventory has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. The Northeast corn supply is low, the price is strong, farmers are reluctant to sell, the port inventory is low, the northern port purchase price is stable, and the 03 contract is oscillating at a high level with a strengthened spot basis. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory - building [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn spot price has risen, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 0.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. The 03 starch contract is oscillating narrowly following corn. The North China corn price is relatively stable in January, the starch spot price will rise, but the futures price is at a large premium to the spot price, so the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that US corn will oscillate at the bottom. The North China corn price continues to rise due to weather, the Northeast corn price is relatively stable, and farmers' reluctance to sell is starting to ease. The spot price is still relatively stable in the short term, and the northern port purchase price is stable today. The North China wheat price is strong due to weather, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is starting to widen. The market is trading on the increase in North China corn sales before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for the 03 corn contract to fall. For trading strategies, for the 03 US corn, there is support at 430 cents per bushel. Short the 03 corn contract with a light position and short the 03 starch contract on rallies. Start reverse arbitrage for the 35 starch contract [8][9][10]. Third Part: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put spread strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the ex - warehouse price of corn at northern ports, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [14][15][19].

原油周报：地缘显著增加波动率 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 前半周的拉涨可以视为短期地缘政治风险主导下的反弹，而非基本面转折。油价在2025年底触及低点后，本已积 累一定回升动能，近期驱动来自于多方面的地缘风险，包括伊朗动荡与供应中断担忧、美国对伊朗的政策持续施 压以及黑海地区油轮遭袭等事件。这成为油价上涨的主推力，市场已计入4-5美元/桶的地缘风险溢价。后半周由 于特朗普总统公开表示，已收到伊朗政府"停止处决抗议者"的保证，并暗示美国可能推迟军事干预，这直接缓 和了市场对伊朗原油出口中断的恐慌情绪，导致油价回吐地缘溢价。对于伊朗短期内我们认为正面冲突的可能性 降低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of LPG changed from 2602 to 2603, with prices showing a weak trend. The previous concerns about restricted Iranian gas exports had significantly boosted the domestic market. However, President Trump's statement eased market panic, leading to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Based on the current fundamental data, both the domestic production volume and imports of LPG have slightly increased, while the chemical demand has slightly declined but still remains supported. Given the high costs for downstream chemical enterprises, the negative feedback from PDH may affect the operating rate. In the future, with an expected decline in PDH operating rate and no further escalation of geopolitical events, the futures price may face downward pressure [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a weak and volatile trend for single - sided trading, while recommending a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - The main LPG contract changed from 2602 to 2603, and prices were weak. Geopolitical concerns initially boosted the market, but Trump's statement led to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Supply increased slightly, and chemical demand decreased slightly but still had support. High costs for downstream enterprises may affect PDH operating rates, and future prices may face pressure [4]. Strategy - Single - sided trading: Weak and volatile. Arbitrage: Wait - and - see. Options: Wait - and - see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The previous oil price increase was a short - term rebound driven by geopolitical risks rather than a fundamental turnaround. After reaching a low in late 2025, oil prices had some upward momentum, driven by various geopolitical risks. The easing of Iranian geopolitical risks led to a retracement of the $3 - 5 per barrel premium. Globally, high inventories, stable OPEC+ and US production, and sufficient supply continue to limit the upside of oil prices [8]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of major domestic refineries increased slightly by 0.26% to 77.24%, above the five - year average, with an expected increase in LPG supply. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.32% to 61.01%, at a relatively low historical level. Overall LPG production increased slightly due to the increase in major refineries and the decrease in independent refineries [13]. Demand - Overall, chemical demand still has support, except for the low operating rate of alkylation. Attention should be paid to the PDH operating rate under continuous losses. The current PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54% to 73.07%, and is expected to decline further next week. The MTBE operating rate remains at a high level [15][17]. Inventory - Port arrivals increased slightly but remained at a low level. Ports continued to deplete inventory as imports were insufficient. Chemical demand decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises fulfilled previous low - price contracts, but overall arrivals were limited, resulting in some ports holding back inventory. Factory inventories also decreased slightly due to low supply and smooth sales. The inventory levels of tertiary stations varied by region, with stable low - level inventory in North China, a significant increase in South China, and stable inventory along the Yangtze River [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Multiple price - related data charts are presented, including Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG prices, but no specific analysis is provided [24]. Spread Data - Multiple spread - related data charts are presented, such as the basis between different regions' LPG and the main contract, but no specific analysis is provided [27]. Disk Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, but no specific analysis is provided [30]. Spot Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, as well as etherification profit data, but no specific analysis is provided [34]. Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production volume, and crude oil processing volume are presented. A list of major domestic refinery maintenance plans and PDH device maintenance schedules is also provided [37][39][41]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory levels of LPG ports and tertiary stations, as well as port capacity ratios, are presented [47].