1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After experiencing consecutive days of continuous increases, precious metals declined in response to Trump's softening signal on trade negotiations last Friday night, with a moderation in risk aversion and the reappearance of the "TACO" trade. For the future market, attention should be focused on the progress of risk events such as the US government shutdown, credit explosions in US regional banks, and Sino - US negotiations. Even if precious metals correct in the future, it is a healthy market performance, and there is no need to be overly worried about short - term sharp rises and falls. The report tends to believe that the long - term upward foundation of precious metals has not changed [8][10] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: During the day, precious metals fluctuated within a narrow range. London gold was trading around $4260, and London silver was trading around $52.1. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed down 1.63% at 970.32 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract closed down 3.99% at 11,742 yuan/kilogram [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index opened high and closed low, currently trading around 98.5 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was consolidating at a low level, currently trading around 4.024% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB against the US dollar fluctuated within a narrow range, currently trading around 7.1229 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks [7] - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 1%. The probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut by December is 94%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6% [7] - Geopolitical conflicts: Trump said the US may not provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, and his meeting with Putin will be a "bilateral meeting" [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on Shanghai gold with a light position based on the 5 - day moving average; go long on Shanghai silver with a light position based on the support around the 10 - day moving average [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data and corresponding charts, including the relationship between the dollar index and precious metal trends, the relationship between real yields and precious metal trends, the trends of domestic and foreign futures, the trends of futures and spot prices, internal and external price differences, the gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, higher than expected. The demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly, and one can consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.09 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country have declined [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million. It is estimated that the inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 will be approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Hen Culling**: In the week of October 16, the number of culled hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7,374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [8]. - **Culled Hen Price**: The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 18. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand. The raw coal price is firm, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is also firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price of imports is stable, the import parity spread has widened. Iranian gas has not been restricted, and most Iranian plants are operating normally except Kimiya. The non - Iranian operating rate has increased, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference has continued to narrow, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran loaded 600,000 tons in September. Affected by sanctions, the price difference between Iranian and non - Iranian sources has widened rapidly, and non - Iranian supplies have increased. Some Iranian plants are reported to have suspended loading, and US dollar traders are taking profits at high prices. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined, while the MTO device operating rate has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, with the increase in the international device operating rate, the resumption of some Iranian devices, and the increase in daily output to around 35,000 tons, imports are gradually recovering. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall transaction is light, and the spot basis is stable. The MTO demand is stable, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. Recently, in the peak season of coal demand, the coal price has rebounded, and the domestic supply is loose. The MTO operating rate in the inland is stable, and the CTO external procurement loss is close to the previous low. The Middle East situation is unclear, and the crude oil is oscillating weakly. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthening, and domestic commodities are oscillating widely, which has a greater impact on methanol futures. With the import interference slightly subsiding, methanol will mainly oscillate weakly under the background of high inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high levels but not chase short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; and sell call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market from aspects of raw coal, supply, import, demand, and inventory. It concludes that methanol will mainly oscillate weakly and provides trading strategies including unilateral shorting at high levels without chasing short positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 16, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 85.57%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in the country was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From October 11 - 17, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1,075,859 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 73.75%. Iranian Kimiya shut down again, the Brunei device restarted in late September, a South American device restarted in the first ten - day period, and a Norwegian device was under maintenance [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of October 15, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 283,800 tons, including 260,500 tons of foreign vessels (202,700 tons of visible and 57,800 tons of non - visible, with 105,700 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 23,300 tons of domestic vessels (3,500 tons of non - visible in Jiangsu and 19,800 tons in Guangdong) [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 16, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 88.08%, the same as last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 94.21%, remaining stable and at a high level [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 18.88%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 72.52%, slightly decreasing. The formaldehyde operating rate was 40.88% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,000 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 236.90% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 98.64% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of October 15, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 83,500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 31,700 tons [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] 3. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2260 yuan/ton (- 2), and the northern line price was 2040 yuan/ton (- 60) [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is under supply pressure, especially with the mediocre performance of the US soybean demand side, and the pressure on the carry - over inventory in the balance sheet is increasing. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and there is still significant pressure on soybean meal. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, and the price is also under pressure. The overall strategy is to be bearish on the single - side, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell call options [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The US soybean futures showed a slight rebound this week, mainly affected by the macro - aspect. The demand side of US soybeans still faces great pressure, and the inventory pressure persists. In the South American market, the weather in the Brazilian production area is favorable, the soybean sowing progress is relatively fast, and the overall supply pressure exists. After Argentina restored the tariff, the export pressure improved. The domestic soybean meal market supply - demand is relatively loose, and the spot has strengthened slightly due to the sharp decline in the futures. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is low, the oil mill operating rate is low, and the demand is also mediocre, with price pressure [4]. - **Strategies**: The single - side strategy is to remain bearish. The arbitrage strategy is M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage. The option strategy is to sell call options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Macro - aspect Slightly Eased, US Soybeans Oscillated**: The US soybean futures rebounded slightly this week due to the improvement in the macro - aspect. The US production area weather is dry, and the crop harvest is expected to progress well, but the yield per unit may be adjusted downwards. The US soybean export has not improved significantly, while the crushing performance is good, with the September crushing volume estimated at 197.863 million bushels. The demand for US soybean oil has also increased significantly [10]. - **South American Supply is Generally Sufficient, Prices Oscillated at High Levels**: Brazilian soybean prices remained high this week. The sowing progress reached 8.2% as of the week of October 4. The subsequent rainfall is expected to be relatively low, and the crop planting is progressing smoothly. Brazil's soybean export in October is estimated to reach 7.31 million tons. The soybean crushing profit has decreased, and the crushing volume is expected to decline, while the export proportion will increase. Argentina's soybean export pressure has improved [13]. - **Futures Pressure Increased, Spot Slightly Stabilized**: The domestic soybean meal futures continued to decline this week, which supported the spot to some extent. The decline was affected by the macro - aspect and the large subsequent supply pressure. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and the demand for soybean meal remained at a relatively high level, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [16]. - **Limited Demand Support, Rapeseed Meal Futures Continued to Decline**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures faced increasing downward pressure this week. The supply of domestic rapeseed tightened, and the inventory decreased to a low level. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal was relatively sufficient, with overall pressure still present [19]. Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, weekly crushing profit, Brazilian monthly export volume and crushing volume, Argentine export and monthly crushing volume, and foreign basis [23][26]. - **Macro - aspect: Exchange Rate & International Shipping**: It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [33][37]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import volume and weekly crushing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds [42]. - **Demand Side**: It includes the提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [45]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseeds + rapeseed meal are presented [49].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,391 | 2 | 0.04% | 736 | -110 | 6,554 | 267 | | SR01 | | 5,408 | 5 | 0.09% | 144,443 | -19746 | 438,116 | 4928 | | SR05 | | 5,374 | 3 | 0.06% | 11,958 | -6825 | 82,872 | 2026 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend. Steel mills continued to cut production, and steel demand improved slightly due to temperature drops. However, the high production of hot - rolled coils led to inventory accumulation, while rebar started to reduce inventory. The black metal sector was under pressure due to news and fundamentals, but steel prices had low valuations, and there was still some support at the bottom. The market should continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3101 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3149 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and RB01 at 3045 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 161 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 182 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang remained stable or changed slightly. The profit of rebar in different regions varied, with Tangshan rebar profit increasing by 12 yuan/ton to - 333 yuan/ton, while Shandong rebar profit decreased by 91 yuan/ton to - 580 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3234 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), HC10 at 3265 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and HC01 at 3215 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 1 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 196 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan, Beijing Jingye was 3100 yuan (up 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan (up 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: The market will maintain a bottom - volatile trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Important Information**: - From January to September, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of newly - built commercial housing also decreased [10]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349 million tons (down 4.6% year - on - year), pig iron output was 6605 million tons (down 2.4% year - on - year), and steel output was 12421 million tons (up 5.1% year - on - year) [11][13]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provided multiple charts, including those showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [17][21][27].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8298 | 42 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8508 | | | | 8588 | 8478 | | 290 | -10 | 210 | 0 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9318 | 10 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9218 | | | | 9 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 【粕类日报】宏观阶段性回暖 粕类整体反弹 品 种 合 约 收盘价 涨 跌 地 区 今 日 昨 日 涨 跌 0 1 2895 2 7 天津 8 0 9 0 -10 0 5 2736 2 3 东莞 0 0 0 0 9 2853 2 0 张家港 -20 0 -20 日照 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 2350 4 4 南通 7 0 104 -34 0 5 2305 2 9 广东 130 134 - 4 0 9 2394 2 4 广西 120 214 -94 今日 昨日 涨跌 今日 昨日 涨跌 15价差 159 155 4 15价差 4 5 3 0 1 5 59价差 -117 -120 3 59价差 -89 -94 5 91价差 -42 -35 - 7 91价差 4 4 6 4 -20 今日 昨日 今日 昨日 今日 昨日 545 562 459 463 2.866 2.879 今日 昨日 涨跌 今日 昨日 涨跌 豆粕-菜粕 413 423 -10 菜粕-葵粕 280 240 4 0 豆粕-葵粕 653 633 2 0 粕类价格日报 2025/1 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a peanut daily report dated October 20, 2025, focusing on peanut futures, spot prices, and market analysis [2][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with futures likely to be volatile. The 01 peanut contract is expected to be in a relatively strong upward trend [4][10] - The by - product, peanut meal, is expected to be weak in the short - term due to the high unit - protein price difference with soybean meal [8] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 8044, up 32 (0.40%), with a trading volume of 153 (down 1.92%) and an open interest of 1,390 (up 6.68%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7958, up 30 (0.38%), with a trading volume of 100,664 (up 6.39%) and an open interest of 199,539 (up 6.58%) [2] Spot and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8800, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change [2] - The price of Rizhao soybean meal was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the price of peanut meal was 3250 yuan/ton [2] - The price of peanut oil was 14580 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8540 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] Import Price - The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Spread - The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 86, down 2 [2] Group 5: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Imported peanut prices were also stable. The supply increased, but downstream demand was still weak [4] - Some peanut oil mills started purchasing, with the pre - suspension mainstream transaction price at 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price at 7920 yuan/ton [4] - The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [4] - Rizhao soybean meal prices rose, while peanut meal was weak in the short - term due to the high unit - protein price difference with soybean meal [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - The 01 and 05 peanut contracts are in a low - level shock, and short - term long positions can be taken on pullbacks [11] Calendar Spread - Stay on the sidelines [12] Options - Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [13]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5436 | 6 | 30 | 134692 | -441 | 203512 | 5090 | | SM主力合约 | 5738 | 20 | -8 | 152986 | -8580 | 377834 | -12123 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | 0 | -20 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5700 | 20 | 50 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5230 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5600 | 0 | 0 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5250 | 0 | ...