| X | | --- | | | | 能化板块研发报告 供应变量带来机遇 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年高硫燃料油呈现上半年强下半年弱的分化走势。上半年持续强 势，其利多支撑由供应转向需求。一季度，俄罗斯、伊朗和墨西哥等主要高 硫供应地区都存在自身的供应缺口。二季度亚洲价格高位吸引套利物流增 加，供应回升但夏季旺季发电需求开始强势启动。下半年亚洲高硫燃料油市 场价格开始持续受到高库存的压制。 2025 年低硫燃料油市场主要受到几个供应地区能源设施变化的影响， 无大矛盾驱动，整体市场价格偏弱势震荡，波动率较往年下行。主要问题集 中在 Dangote 炼厂 RFCC 不断调试，马来西亚 Rapid 炼厂 RFCC 检修回归 延迟，南苏丹低硫重质原油出口受苏丹内战扰动，Al-Zour 炼厂偶尔部分装 置技术性停产。 【市场展望】 2026 年高硫燃料油，主要关注俄乌冲突和欧美制裁结束后的高硫燃料 油全球供应物流重塑，高硫对外供应总量整体上行，但往亚洲供应量随着欧 美制裁的放松而被逐步分流。重点关注二季度，亚洲高硫被分流后出现短暂 缺口叠加中东旺季发电开始备货，或短期内强势支撑亚洲高硫价格上行。 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a 2026 annual report on lead in the non - ferrous metals sector, dated December 31, 2025, with the title "Regeneration of Lead Supply Contradiction Continues and Lead Price Fluctuates Widely" [4][10][18] Group 2: Fundamental Information Lead Concentrate - Global and domestic lead concentrate production data are presented in multiple figures, including production in thousands of tons and million tons [28][34][39] - Lead concentrate import data such as import volume and import profit and loss are provided [31] - Domestic lead concentrate production and total supply data from 2024 - 2025 are detailed in a table, showing monthly production, year - on - year growth, net import volume, and total supply [91] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are shown, with data in thousands of tons [48][53] - In China, data on electrolytic lead monthly production, smelting start - up rates (both total and by scale) for primary and secondary lead are presented, along with smelting costs and profits [65][67][74] - Refined lead import and export data, including import and export volume and profit and loss, are provided [80][81] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and apparent consumption data are presented [89] Lead Consumption - Data on lead - acid battery production, including monthly and weekly start - up rates, export and import, and inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers, are provided [102][109][112] - Data on automobile, new - energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and export, as well as power project investment and communication base - station construction, are presented, which are related to lead consumption [120][122][130] - Global and domestic lead balance tables are provided, showing data from 2019 - 2026E, including production at the mine and smelting ends, consumption, and balance [144][145] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report includes a section on future outlook and strategy recommendation, although the specific content is not provided in the given text [146]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | | | | 12 | | | | 20 | | | | 27 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 28 | | | | 免责声明 | 30 | 2025 年 12 月 31 日 基本面逐步改善 锌价或有回暖 第一部分 前言概要 有色板块研发报告 锌 2026 年报 银河期货 第 2 页 共 30 页 锌 2026 年报 有色板块研发报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：LME 锌价&沪锌价格 单位：美元/吨；元/吨 第 3 页 共 30 页 有色板块研发报告 第 4 页 共 30 页 锌 2026 年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 有色板块研发报告 图 2：全球锌精矿产量 单位：千吨 图 3：全球锌精矿产量 单位：千吨 第 5 页 共 30 页 锌 2026 年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 有色板块研发报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily - Date: December 30, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: Today's price is 109.01, next - working - day price is 108.70, with a decrease of 0.31 - 6 - fruit average wholesale price: Today's price is 7.83, next - working - day price is 7.95, with a decrease of 0.12 - Other apple varieties' prices remain unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01: Today's price is 9658, yesterday's close was 9587, with an increase of 71 - AP05: Today's price is 9200, yesterday's close was 9163, with an increase of 37 - AP10: Today's price is 8174, yesterday's close was 8107, with an increase of 67 [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: Today's value is 458, previous trading - day value was 424, with an increase of 34 - AP05 - AP10: Today's value is 1026, previous trading - day value was 1056, with a decrease of 30 - AP10 - AP01: Today's value is - 1484, previous trading - day value was - 1480, with a decrease of 4 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year, apple production decreased, the proportion of high - quality fruits is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate within a short - term range - Arbitrage: Go long on AP01 and short on AP10 - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the inventory - reduction speed is lower than that of last year - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 2500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71% - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] Market Conditions - The apple market in the producing areas has changed little, cold - storage transactions are stable, mainly low - price goods. Traders are packaging their own high - quality goods and rarely purchasing from outside. Merchants in various producing areas have started to package Spring Festival gift boxes. The market arrivals are stable, and the mainstream prices are stable - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The number of buyers is increasing, and farmers' willingness to sell is rising [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the near - month egg futures contracts are expected to be weak in a range, and it is advisable to consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. The year 2026 will see a relief in supply pressure in the first half due to significant culling and limited restocking in 2025. Egg spot prices are expected to gradually strengthen after the Chinese New Year, but the upside is limited as it is the off - season for demand. The supply in the second half of 2026 is uncertain. If egg prices are high in the first half, farmers may reduce culling and increase restocking, which will increase supply pressure. If prices are low, culling will increase and restocking will decrease, leading to a significant reduction in supply and a strong boost to spot prices. The second half is the peak season for egg consumption, so prices are likely to rise, with the magnitude depending on the supply situation [8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3072, up 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3541, down 13; JD09 closed at 4066, up 14. The 01 - 05 spread was - 469, up 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 525, down 27; the 09 - 01 spread was 994, up 10. - **Ratio with Feed Grains**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.33, up 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.78, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.99, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.27, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.41, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The main production area average price was 3 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main sales area average price was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged. Most of the national mainstream egg prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong showing little change, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.89 yuan/jin, unchanged. The prices in various regions such as Handan and Shijiazhuang remained stable [2]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Profit**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.89 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the cost of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was - 0.03 yuan, down 1.16 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2352 yuan, up 6 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3134 yuan, unchanged; the compound feed for egg - laying hens was 2.59 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In November, the national laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, down 80 million from the previous month and up 5.5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories in December 2025, November 2025, February 2026, and March 2026 are 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively. As of December 18, the weekly culled hen output in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change; the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged. The weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7023 tons, with little change and at a historical low [4][5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly up; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly down; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly up [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. - **Arbitrage and Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - term due to factors like the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. However, there may be short - term回调 risks as cotton prices rose rapidly on Friday [6][7]. - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 95, 100, and 100 respectively; CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts decreased by 350, 95, and 160 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B increased by 262 to 15541 yuan/ton, Cot A remained at 74.20 cents/pound, and the prices of some other varieties had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spreads and their changes varied; in the inter - variety spreads, the spreads and their changes also showed different trends [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **US Retail and Inventory Data**: In October 2025, the US clothing and apparel retail sales reached $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales reached $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the US clothing and apparel retailer inventory was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. In September 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.17, a year - on - year decrease of 0.15 and a month - on - month increase of 0.03 [4]. - **Zhangjiagang Cotton Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 34,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The proportion of cotton from different countries changed. The inventory had a net increase, and it is expected that Brazilian cotton will continue to increase, while Australian cotton will mainly be out of storage [5]. - **National Cotton Inspection**: As of December 28, 1088 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1013 enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [5]. Trading Logic - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the fundamentals of cotton. China's recent signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price has an obvious upward trend, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6][7]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [9]. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The Zhengzhou cotton futures are at a high level but are expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and only medium - and high - count yarns are performing well. The full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales, and small and medium - sized weaving mills are expected to have holidays during the New Year's Day [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, and other indicators [12]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait - and - see [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [16][19][23][24].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, December 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,275, up 10 (0.19%), volume 12,287 (down 4068), open interest 66,801 (up 2788) [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,271, up 6 (0.11%), volume 3,435 (down 548), open interest 15,210 (down 1900) [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,258, up 5 (0.10%), volume 202,265 (down 58809), open interest 425,612 (down 6682) [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5420, Kunming 5220, Wuhan 5650, Nanning 5360, Rizhao 5545, Xi'an 5820, with no price changes [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 149, Kunming -51, Wuhan 379, Nanning 89, Rizhao 274, Xi'an 549 [3] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -13, down 1; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, up 5; SR09 - SR01: Spread 4, up 4 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: Quota - in price 4091, out - of - quota price 5199, spread with Liuzhou 221, with Rizhao 346, with futures 72 [3] - Thailand import: Quota - in price 4139, out - of - quota price 5262, spread with Liuzhou 158, with Rizhao 283, with futures 9 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Thailand (2025/26 season as of Dec 27): Cumulative cane crush 1407.33 million tons (down 16.71% YoY), sugar production 127.93 million tons (down 15.83% YoY) [5] - India: 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota 2.2 million tons (down 50,000 tons from 2025) [5] - Guangxi: December sugar production estimated 170 - 180 million tons (down from 223.9 million tons last year), sales 70 - 80 million tons conservatively, may exceed 1 million tons with pre - sales and point - price sugar [6][8] - Maharashtra, India: As of Dec 28, 2025, cane crush 51.53 million tons, sugar production 4.4782 million tons [8] Logic Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar supply pressure eases as it enters the end of the harvest season. Northern hemisphere is in the production cycle, and the final output may affect the market. Short - term, ICE sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate slightly stronger [9] - Domestic: Sugar prices are at a low level. High production costs, a bottom - building trend in ICE sugar, and rising import costs support the market. However, the peak production season and global sugar production increase expectations limit the upside [9] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Brazil's harvest is ending, international sugar prices are bottom - building. Domestic market may oscillate near the current platform, and higher international prices may drive the domestic market [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, basis, and futures spreads [13][14][17]

Group 1: Market Data - EC2602 closed at 1795.1 points on December 30, down 1.53% from the previous day's closing price. EC2604 closed at 1160.2 points, down 0.83%; EC2606 at 1370.0 points, down 0.29%; EC2608 at 1500.1 points, up 0.16%; EC2610 at 1056.0 points, up 0.12%; EC2612 at 1308.0 points, down 18.49% [4]. - The SCFIS European line reported 1742.64 points on December 26, up 9.66% month - on - month. The SCFI: Shanghai - Europe was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% month - on - month [4][6]. - WTI crude oil near - month was at 57.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.55% month - on - month and down 18.55% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month was at 61.26 dollars/barrel, up 1.54% month - on - month and down 17.4% year - on - year [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market is continuously debating the high point and path of January freight rates. The EC futures market experienced a callback and oscillation today. MSK released a quote of 2700 US dollars for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in WK3, a small increase of 100 compared to last week. The subsequent market booking situation should be monitored [6]. - There are still differences in the high point and path of January freight rates in the spot market. The supply and demand situation has changed, with 12 - 1 month shipments expected to gradually improve. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in December was 260,000 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in January and February 2026 is expected to be 316,100 and 279,200 TEU respectively. The shipping capacity in December decreased by 5% compared to last week, while that in January increased by 5.5% [7]. - The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks is still tortuous. After Maersk's trial voyage on the India - East Coast of the United States route through the Red Sea, CMA CGM's Jacques Saadé and Adonis passed through the Suez Canal, strengthening the expectation of a phased resumption of navigation, which may suppress the far - month contracts [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit at high levels, and the remaining light positions can be held at the discretion of the investor. Pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed due to the resumption of navigation expectations [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. Group 3: Industry News - The "Listing and Operation of Shipping Index Futures" project of the Shanghai Futures Exchange won the Special Prize of the Financial Innovation Achievement Award in the 2023 - 2024 Shanghai Financial Innovation Award [10]. - US President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear and missile programs, threatening to strike Iran again. He also mentioned that Hamas should be disarmed and would face consequences if it fails to do so [10][11].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3300 元（-），北京敬业 3150 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3280 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（+10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面出现下跌，但动力煤价格止跌企稳，导致煤焦依然领涨，钢材现货 成交整体一般偏弱，刚需低价拿货为主。上周钢联数据公布，五大材继续减产，但减 产速度有所放缓，受利润水平的修复螺纹和热卷均有所增产；钢材总库存加速去化， 社库去化速度比厂库更快，钢材仍处于去库周期；受季节性影响建材表需转弱，而热 卷受家电企业年末补库及出口冲量影响表需仍然增长，12 月整体钢材需求表现尚可； 原料端煤矿供应小幅增长，但价格止跌企稳，pb 粉结构性短缺问题尚未解决，进口利 润亏损支撑铁矿价格，钢材成本存在支撑，月底铁 ...