Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of China's export tax - rebate policy will likely lead to a phased rush of container shipments before April 1, 2026, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts, and the market may show a positive arbitrage logic [4][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled; for battery products, the VAT export tax - rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and cancelled from January 1, 2027 [2] Impact Assessment - **Product Scope**: Affected products include photovoltaic and battery - related products, as well as chemical raw materials and products, plastic PVC and polymers, kitchenware, ceramic products, silicone, cement, glass products, etc [3][9] - **Export Situation**: From January to November, China's photovoltaic module export volume was 227GW, with 81.7GW exported to Europe, accounting for 35.96%. China's battery export volume was 98.7GW, a year - on - year increase of 84.8%, and nearly 90% was exported to non - European and American countries [4][9] - **Shipping Impact**: Most affected products are transported by containers. Routes to Europe, the Middle East, South America, and India - Pakistan may be more affected. Before April 1, a phased rush of container shipments is expected, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts [4][20]

股指期货周报：春季行情确立 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国常会：部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。 人民日报钟才平：统筹促消费和扩投资，建设强大国内市场。 财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026 年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。 2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 2025年12月，美国非农就业人数喜忧参半，增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率降至4.4%。数据公布后，美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index led to selling pressure on gold and silver, but after two days of adjustment, the impact on the market gradually decreased, and gold and silver stabilized after the correction. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential interference with the Fed's independence are the main drivers of the rise in precious metals [3][4][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustment from January 8 - 14 reduced the gold weight from about 20.4% to 14.9% and the silver weight from about 9.6% to 3.94%, resulting in a selling pressure of about $6 - 7 billion for each. The impact on the silver market was more significant. After the adjustment, the market gradually stabilized, and geopolitical events increased the demand for limited metal resources [3] - US employment data in December showed a further decline in labor market momentum. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, possibly due to some unemployed leaving the labor market. The revised employment data increased market concerns [4] - **Strategy Recommendation** - For single - side trading, buy on dips near the 5 - day moving average. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [5] 3.2 Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Mainline** - The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the independence of the Fed has become a market focus [16][34] - **US Economy** - GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than expected, but a detailed analysis showed that the growth was somewhat deceptive. Consumption and investment were weak, and retail data was also affected by tariffs [42][44] - The US employment market cooled unexpectedly. In December, non - farm employment increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the annual employment growth was the weakest since the pandemic [53] - Inflation rebounded moderately, and the Fed's target focus shifted. Inflation data was also affected by the government shutdown [56] - The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet. Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction might end soon, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting" [62] 3.3 Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold** - **Global Supply and Demand** - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3,717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. In the third quarter, the total supply reached a record high. Investment demand dominated, with an increase in ETF holdings and strong demand for gold bars and coins. Central bank gold purchases remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [65][66] - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - In the first three quarters of 2025, China produced 392.931 tons of gold, a 3.60% year - on - year increase, and consumed 682.730 tons, a 7.95% year - on - year decrease. Gold jewelry consumption decreased, while demand for gold bars, coins, and industrial use increased [70] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - Since 2022, central banks, especially those of developing countries, have been actively buying gold. Reasons vary by country, such as optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging risks [77] - **Silver** - **World Supply and Demand Balance** - The supply of silver is relatively stable due to its associated production. Demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially photovoltaic use. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand - supply gap is expected to narrow [79] - **Inventory** - LBMA inventory was affected by various factors, including the Trump administration's potential tariff policy and the "short squeeze" in the London market. The overall global silver inventory has rebounded from the bottom in 2024 [85] - **ETF Demand and Supply - Demand Observation** - LBMA inventory has about 27,000 tons of silver, but only about 7,000 tons can be freely circulated. The overseas silver lease rate has fluctuated, and the high rate reflects the supply - demand contradiction [87]

GALAXY FUTURES 1 强势品种回调，锂价仍在高位运行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 碳酸锂后市行情展望 综合分析 行情展望及策略推荐： GALAXY FUTURES 2 产业层面：终端需求中，淡季来临，1-2月车销全年最低，但因为有国补提前发放、车企托底购置税等因素，车销季节 性可能强于预期。储能需求受限于产能保持平稳增长。锂电池4月1日后降低出口退税，一季度大概会出现抢出口的现 象，预计季节性弱于预期。前期正极因亏损减产，且原料库存不足，等待价格回调补库的机会，因此价格也难深跌。 供应端，贸易商进口精矿陆续到港，锂盐厂虽有新冶炼产能爬坡，但锂矿价格高企，锂盐厂开工也近90%，代工产能 承接力不足，叠加部分检修，1月供应可能环比持平。即使1月初开始出现累库，库存动态周期也对价格形成支撑。 期货层面：近期锂电池反内卷会议抑制产能扩张过热，但盘面表现仍然十分强势，无视铜和白银回调。周末锂电池出 口退税消息发布后，市场或将交易抢出口预期，锂价仍能延续上涨。中长期逢 ...

电解铝 ：宏观基本面共振 铝价实现开年红 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 宏观：地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，资金流入推动价格上涨。后续关注美国就业数据及美国对对等关 税的裁决。同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，供给端刚性预期明显，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、 铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所走弱，但下游仍逢低积极备货，出库端无显著异动。光伏出口退税取消，一季度抢出口窗口期预计对铝需求 有一定影响。 ◼ 库存：本周铝锭及铝棒社库厂库合计109.61万吨，环比显著增加，但增量主要与期现基差较大、存套利机会有关，后续预计仓单有所增 加。 ◼ 交易逻辑：铝在供给端全球持续存缺口且供给弹性较低、需求端在能 ...

成本端推动下，价格震荡偏强 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 锰硅方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，在当前利润水平下，预计仍有下行驱动，不过四季度末有部分新增产能投产， 总体来看供应端平稳为主。需求端如硅铁部分所述，12月高炉密集检修结束后，1月进入了短暂复产周期，不过由于钢材库存开始 累积，预计对1月高炉复产高度有所压制。成本方面，港口锰矿库存仍处于同期低位，康密劳2月锰矿美金报价继续小幅上涨。总体 来看，锰硅自身供需有边际改善，成本推动下短期震荡偏强。 【策略】 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本 ...

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: India's Bi - weekly Sugar Production Soars, Domestic Pressing Enters Peak Season [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as its sugarcane enters the harvest stage, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an unexpected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodity market, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price support the domestic sugar price, but the peak pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 25/26 season may cause significant pressure on the upper shock platform. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Trading strategies include: for single - side trading, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and domestic white sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, so consider low - buying and high - selling within the range; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell put options [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Core Logic**: International market: Brazil's sugar supply pressure eases, market focus on the Northern Hemisphere, India's potential over - expected production increase affects prices. Domestic market: cost supports prices, but peak pressing and expected global production increase bring pressure [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: international sugar price bottom - shock, domestic sugar price range - shock, low - buy and high - sell. Arbitrage: wait - and - see. Options: sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Change - Increasing Cycle - According to ISO, in the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Czarnikow predicts a global sugar supply of 185.4 million tons, a consumption of 178.2 million tons, and a surplus of 7.2 million tons. The 2026/27 season may maintain a high level or slightly decrease [9]. 2.1 Brazil's Sugar Production Expected to Remain High - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to be 45.02 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, different institutions have different forecasts, with production ranging from 38 million to 44 million tons [13]. 2.2 Brazil's Pressing Season Nearing End - In the second half of November, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 15.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%; sugar production was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94% [16]. 2.3 This Season's Brazil's Production Increase May Fall Short of Expectations - As of the second half of November 2025/26, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative crushing volume of 592.266 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%; cumulative sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. The final production increase may be less than expected [19]. 2.4 Brazil's Ethanol Production and Sales Situation - The current alcohol - to - sugar price is about 16.87 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo is about 0.68 [21]. 2.5 Brazil's Sugar Inventory Drops Slightly, Exports Decrease - In December, Brazil exported about 2.913 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. As of December in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 28.1722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. As of November 30, the sugar inventory in Brazil's central - southern region was 10.4175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4432 million tons [23]. 3.1 Thailand's New Season Expected to Increase Production - In the 25/26 season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the export was 5.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.39 million tons. However, as of December 29, 2025/26, the cumulative cane crushing volume decreased by 19.27% year - on - year, and the final production increase may be less than expected [29]. 3.3 25/26 Season India's Sugar Production Increase May Exceed Expectations - As of December 31, 2025, India's 2025/26 season sugar production reached 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 25%. The final production may significantly increase year - on - year and may exceed expectations [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 4.1 Domestic Sugar Production Situation - As of December 31, 2025/26, in Guangxi, 73 sugar mills had all started production, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 16.2303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2515 million tons; sugar production was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8095 million tons. In Yunnan, as of December 31, 2025, 36 sugar mills were in operation, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 3.461 million tons, a year - on - year increase, and sugar production of 0.3923 million tons, a year - on - year increase [37]. 4.2 Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory Situation - As of December 31, 2025/26, in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar sales were 0.8848 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7474 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales were 0.2814 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.72% [40]. 4.3 November Import Volume Decreases - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. The import of syrup and premixed powder in November was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [45]. 4.4 High Import Profits - The extra - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 5,050 yuan, with a profit of 470 yuan; the extra - quota cost of Thai sugar is 5,100 yuan, with a profit of 410 yuan. However, most prices have been fixed, so the correlation between domestic and foreign price differences is not significant [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report increased US corn exports, but the production is at a high level. In the short term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The support of the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is relatively strong. With the 11% tariff for imported US corn and 12% for sorghum in China, importing US corn has become profitable, and importing from Brazil offers higher profits [4]. - Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply. Port inventories remain low, and port prices are stable. It is expected that there will be another wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - January. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, but downstream demand for replenishment is driving a relative stability in Northeast corn prices. In North China, the increase in corn supply has led to a continuous decline in spot prices. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China remains high, and it is expected that corn supply will increase next week. In the short term, the supply at the northern ports will increase, and the purchase price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at a high level, and the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, while downstream提货 has decreased, leading to an increase in starch inventory, which remains at a high level. As corn spot prices are weak, starch spot prices are also weakening. The profits of North China starch factories have declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to rise. As corn prices decline, there is still room for starch spot prices to fall. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will follow the high - level fluctuations of corn [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation**: US corn exports are increasing, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. In China, corn supply in the Northeast and North China is increasing, and there will be a peak selling season in mid - January. Corn spot prices still have room to fall. In the short term, corn prices will continue to decline, and the 03 contract has limited room for rebound [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel, making long - term purchases of 07 corn below 2240 yuan, and short - term shorting of 03 corn [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis International Market - **US Corn Supply and Demand** - The USDA's December report shows changes in US corn supply and demand indicators such as planting area, yield, inventory, and consumption in different years. The export volume has been adjusted, and attention should be paid to the January report. Importing US corn and Brazilian corn is currently profitable [9]. - As of January 1, the weekly US corn export inspection was 1.21 million tons, with a cumulative export of 26.81 million tons. This week, there were no exports to China, with a cumulative export of 0 tons and a proportion of 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - **US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production** - As of December 30, the non - commercial net long position of US corn decreased, and ethanol production also decreased. The US corn 03 contract is oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [15]. Domestic Market - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises** - The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is lower than the same period last year. As of January 8, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [19]. - Deep - processing consumption has slightly decreased. From January 1 to January 7, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in China consumed 1.3817 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventory has increased, and it is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 354 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week and a 40.5% decrease year - on - year [20]. - **Port Inventories** - The corn inventory at northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has increased. As of January 2, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.889 million tons. The shipping volume from the four ports this week was 593,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 478,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 294,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 107,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.589 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress** - The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall national grain sales progress (including all 13 provinces) is 50%, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase year - on - year; the sales progress in 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 48%, a 4% increase from the previous week and a 3% increase year - on - year [26]. - **Starch Market** - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. From January 1 to January 7, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, and the starch production was 324,800 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 59.37%, a 0.49% decrease from the previous week [30]. - As North China corn spot prices fall, starch spot prices decline, and by - product prices remain stable, enterprise profits have decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 67 yuan, a decrease of 39 yuan from the previous week, and in Shandong, it was - 6 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan [30]. - Downstream提货 has decreased, and with the decline in the operating rate, starch inventory has increased. It is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn starch inventory was 1.125 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 25.1% increase year - on - year [30]. - **Substitute Products** - The wheat price in North China is basically around 2,490 yuan per ton, showing a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. North China corn is weak, while Northeast corn is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between northern port corn and the 05 corn contract has declined [39]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From January 4 to January 8, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 59 yuan per head, a decrease of 3 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 75 yuan per head, an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week [43]. - From January 4 to January 8, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 1.13 yuan per chicken, compared with 1.24 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.42 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.55 yuan per catty last week [49]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup this week was 60.77%, a 6.27% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 57.1%, a 5.31% increase from the previous week [52]. - The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper this week was 65.86%, a 1.63% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 66.8%, a 1.86% decrease from the previous week [52]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitute Products** - The report shows the price trends of corn and substitute products such as wheat, sorghum, and their price differences, as well as the price differences between different corn and starch contracts [53][57][61].

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Treat Iron Ore Prices at High Levels with a Bearish Outlook Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and capital, with the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals also having a certain impact on iron ore prices. The supply side remains loose, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year, with mid - term demand likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to continue to decline, and the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to persist. Overall, the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. The current fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly, and there is limited room for further price increases. In the mid - term, it is advisable to take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices [3]. - The trading strategy suggests taking a bearish stance with light positions for single - sided trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: The price of iron ore has been strong this week, with the fundamentals remaining largely unchanged. Macro - sentiment and capital are the main drivers, and the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals has also influenced the iron ore futures price. The supply side is in a loose situation, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. In the mid - term, domestic demand is likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to contribute to a continuous decline, and the weakening of domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to last. Although the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. There is limited room for further price increases, and a bearish stance with light positions at high prices is recommended in the mid - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply - side Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level. In 2025, the total output of the four major mines was 1.15 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% (23 million tons), with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipment volume was 1.13 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% (12 million tons), and most of the shipment decline was contributed by Rio Tinto. In 2026, the global shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase steadily by about 15 million tons. This week, global shipments were 36.77 million tons, an increase of 2.13 million tons from last week and 1.98 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore global shipments have been at a high level year - on - year. From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is still in the production ramp - up stage in 2026 [8][9]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory**: The current total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic ports is at the highest level in the past six years, and the fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. In 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore in China increased slightly. In the first half of the year, due to supply - side disturbances, the inventory decreased by over 10 million tons, but in the second half of the year, with the recovery of the supply side and the relatively rapid weakening of terminal demand, the inventory continued to increase, with the maximum inventory accumulation approaching 20 million tons and the annual inventory accumulation being about 10 million tons. In the first half of 2026, the loose supply pattern of global iron ore is expected to continue [10][11]. Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Steel Demand**: In 2026, there is no expectation of an increase in domestic steel demand, and it is expected to continue the pattern of 2024 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, overseas iron element consumption increased continuously year - on - year, with an average annual increase of over 30 million tons. The terminal steel demand structure has changed significantly in the past three years, with iron element exports (steel + billets + indirect) contributing the largest increment and volatility in terminal steel demand. However, the impact of overseas steel demand on domestic iron ore prices is transmitted relatively slowly [12][13]. Price and Spread Analysis - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: Various price indices and spreads of imported iron ore at ports are presented, including the Platts iron ore price index, the price difference between different iron ore products at Qingdao Port, and the relationship between steel mill cash profits and the price difference of high, medium, and low - grade iron ore powders [17][18]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: The import profits of different types of iron ore, such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, and others, are shown [19][20]. - **Profit of East China Mainstream Steel Mills**: The cash profits of East China's threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cost data of iron water, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, and threaded steel in East China, are provided [21][22]. - **Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread**: The spreads between SGX (Singapore Exchange) and DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) iron ore contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between iron water and scrap steel in East China are analyzed [23][24]. - **Iron Ore Futures Basis and Inter - period Spread**: The basis of the optimal deliverable iron ore against different DCE contracts and the inter - period spreads are presented [25][26]. Shipment of Global Four Major Mines The global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN's iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports, are shown [27][28]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory The inventory data of different types of imported iron ore at ports, including powder ore, lump ore, pellet, non - trade ore, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore, are provided [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The total steel inventory has turned to accumulation, but hot - rolled steel is still de - stocking. Seasonal factors have weakened the demand for building materials, and steel exports have declined in January. Although there is cost support, the weakening demand also limits the upward space of steel prices. [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.04 million tons (+2.82), and that of hot - rolled coil was 305.51 million tons (+1). The daily average hot - metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 229.5 million tons (+2.07), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel plants was 34.8% (-0.8). The profit of electric - arc furnace steel has declined, and the long - process steel profit remains profitable with an increase in hot - metal output. [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 174.96 million tons (-25.48), and that for hot - rolled coil was 308.34 million tons (-2.43). Building material demand has seasonally declined, while hot - rolled coil demand is affected by pre - holiday restocking in the manufacturing industry but shows a decline in apparent demand due to a rapid drop in exports in January. Domestic project investment has insufficient growth, the real estate market is still weak, but the manufacturing industry shows some positive trends, and the auto industry maintains strong growth. [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.83 million tons in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.77 million tons. [4] - **Outlook and Strategy**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with a short - term correction. It is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and hold the short position of the ratio between hot - rolled coil and coking coal. It is advisable to wait and see for options. [7][9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Price**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan (+10), and in Beijing was 3170 yuan (+20). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+10), and in Tianjin was 3190 yuan (+10). [13] - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric - arc furnace was - 44.58 yuan (-16.3), and the off - peak electricity profit was 120 yuan (-16). [32] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International Trade**: Mexico imposed preliminary anti - dumping duties on hollow profiles from China and the US, and Vietnam made a positive final ruling on the sunset review of cold - rolled carbon steel coils from China. [34] - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. [34] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations. [34] - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 2.60%. Real estate development investment was - 15.9%, manufacturing investment was +1.9%, and infrastructure investment was +0.13%. [39] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 229.5 million tons (+2.07), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel plants was 34.8% (-0.8). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.04 million tons (+2.82), and that of hot - rolled coil was 305.51 million tons (+1). [56][61] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 174.96 million tons (-5.5% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, - 25.48 million tons month - on - month), and that for hot - rolled coil was 308.34 million tons (-1.7% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, - 2.43 million tons month - on - month). Building material demand has declined, and hot - rolled coil exports may decline in January. [64][76] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased. [4]