研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2263（+18/+0.8%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1870 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2070 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，鲁北报价 2100 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2080 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 22100 元/吨，宁波报价 2290 元/吨，广州报价 2190 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20260103-20260109）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 867899 吨，较上周回升 26800 吨，装置产能利用率为 59.49%，较上周回升 1.84%。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开工下降，外盘整体 开 ...

2026年1月 地缘扰动，甲醇坚挺 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月7日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置稳定；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配套60 万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年M ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [2] 1. IM Futures 1.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8357.01, up 2.80%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 298,563 lots, an increase of 50,774 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 403,037 lots, an increase of 9,639 lots [3][4]. - The main contract of IM rose 3.53% to close at 8311.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 45.61 points, up 35.17 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -2.95% [3][4]. 1.2 Main Seats - In IM2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 59,598 lots, an increase of 8,029 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 50,494 lots, an increase of 6,180 lots; etc. [13]. - Similar data were provided for IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 main seats [15][17]. 2. IF Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4789.92, up 0.65%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 156,092 lots, an increase of 7,750 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 301,970 lots, an increase of 2,755 lots [18][19]. - The main contract of IF rose 0.72% to close at 4774 points. The main contract was at a discount of 15.92 points, down 0.8 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -1.79% [18][19]. 2.2 Main Seats - In IF2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 30,321 lots, an increase of 1,803 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 25,305 lots, an increase of 1,116 lots; etc. [31]. - Similar data were provided for IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 main seats [33][34]. 3. IC Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8249.13, up 2.39%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 203,354 lots, an increase of 14,458 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 310,950 lots, a decrease of 7,660 lots [36][37]. - The main contract of IC rose 2.79% to close at 8236.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 12.53 points, up 6.36 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.82% [36][37]. 3.2 Main Seats - In IC2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 43,947 lots, an increase of 978 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 36,151 lots, an increase of 4,183 lots; etc. [50]. - Similar data were provided for IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 main seats [52][54]. 4. IH Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3143.74, up 0.30%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 54,045 lots, an increase of 340 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 91,722 lots, a decrease of 1,098 lots [57]. - The main contract of IH rose 0.3% to close at 3140.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 3.54 points, down 4.02 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.6% [57][58]. 4.2 Main Seats - In IH2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 12,915 lots, an increase of 1,569 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,691 lots, an increase of 234 lots; etc. [70]. - Similar data were provided for IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 main seats [72][74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The log spot price has stabilized due to increased arrivals at ports and inventory accumulation. In the short - term, prices are likely to remain stable under the game of supply and demand, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of the expected increase in the FOB price in February and the recovery rhythm of terminal construction demand [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's shipments decreased due to the Christmas holiday, but the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 479,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17%. The arrivals in Shandong were concentrated while those in Jiangsu were tight. The January FOB price dropped to $110 per JAS cubic meter, and traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling led to good FOB transactions. On the demand side, the demand for construction timber was flat, but the shipments of laminated wood in Shandong were popular. The daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. The capital availability rate of construction sites declined, affecting procurement. The total inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%, with the inventory of radiata pine and North American timber increasing and that of spruce/fir decreasing, and the inventory in core provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu increasing [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, with both supply and demand being weak and cost support, aggressive investors can go long near the previous low. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Core Logic Analysis - The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: In December 2025, about 55 ships departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 6 ships, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from November. 42 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from November. From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships (350,000 cubic meters) departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship (10,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships (300,000 cubic meters) were directly bound for China, an increase of 2 ships (80,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 8% increase from the previous week, and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, a 17% increase from the previous week [19] - **Log Inventory**: As of January 2, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.56%. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 42.86%. The spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 6.67%. The total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period, and the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 508,756 cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22] - **Log Demand**: As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3.58%, and the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 11.07%. As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points [26] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.33%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 730 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,160 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year increase of 10.48% [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,240 yuan per cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,800 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [36] - **Import Log Costs**: As of January 5, 2026, the January FOB (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42]

供需趋宽松，造纸承压，上行乏力 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 第一部分综合分析与交易策略 第二部分核心逻辑分析 第三部分周度数据跟踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 目录 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 【策略】 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 纸浆：市场延续供大于求格局，供应端，进口量稳定，国产阔叶浆、化机浆产量小幅波动，港口库存累库至 200.7 万吨，青岛港等多数港口库存呈 增长趋势。需求端，生活用纸、白卡纸等品类消费量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price has regained its financial attribute, and there is no need to be overly bearish. Although the non - ferrous sector has seen a general decline due to the correction of precious metals and copper, the medium - to - long - term trend remains upward. The nickel market is in a state of supply surplus and continuous inventory accumulation, but considering multiple dimensions such as the macro - environment, capital flow, and market sentiment, the price may not be overly pessimistic. [1][6] - The stainless steel market has a good inventory reduction recently, but the inflow of funds is limited. It passively follows the nickel price, with limited upside and difficulty in deep decline. [9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Price and Spread Data - From January 5th to January 9th, the Shanghai - London ratio fluctuated around 7.96 - 8.05, with a 0.03 increase compared to the previous weekend and the end of last month. The spot import profit and loss, LME nickel premium/discount, and various nickel product premium/discounts also showed certain changes. For example, the SMM Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1400 yuan compared to the previous weekend and the end of last month. [10] 1.2 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory - Global visible nickel inventory reached 348,000 tons, an increase of 31,700 tons this week, mainly due to a large amount of warehousing in LME Asian warehouses stimulated by high nickel prices, and there was also an increase of over 2,000 tons in domestic social inventory. The supply of Jinchuan nickel is tight, and the spot premium has risen to 9,000 yuan/ton. [16] 1.3 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The social inventory of stainless steel continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are at a low level. Although the terminal demand for stainless steel is still weak, traders are actively replenishing inventory. The price of stainless steel has followed the rise of nickel prices, but the increase is relatively restrained due to the lack of large - scale capital inflow. [9][18] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pure Nickel - **Production**: In 2025, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. In January, high nickel prices are expected to further boost production. From January to November 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 48,900 tons, compared with a net export of 24,800 tons in the same period last year. Due to the opening of the import window at the end of December, the net import in January is expected to increase. From January to November 2025, the domestic supply of refined nickel was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48%. [25] - **Demand**: From January to December, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. In December, the PMI of the downstream nickel industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloy, etc. was in the off - season, with a significant month - on - month decline. [28] 2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic nickel ore in January 2026 increased month - on - month, and the premium remained flat at HPM + 25 - +26 US dollars/wet ton. The Indonesian government will adjust nickel quotas according to industry demand. Some mines are operating normally, while others are waiting for quotas. [30] - **NPI**: The NPI market has recovered. The price of high - nickel iron has increased, and the production of China + Indonesia NPI has also shown a certain trend. The profit margin of NPI in some regions has improved. [32][33] - **Chromium - based Products**: Starting from January 1, 2026, Zimbabwe has imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products, causing the price of chromium ore to rebound continuously. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 has decreased. [43] - **Cost and Hedging**: Estimating the cold - rolling cash cost at around 13,900 yuan/ton and the integrated cost at 13,400 yuan/ton. The futures market can provide hedging profits, reflecting a lively market atmosphere. [46] - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The production schedule in January has increased month - on - month, but whether it can be achieved depends on raw material supply. From January to November 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.374 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; total exports were 4.546 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; and the net export volume was 3.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [55] - **Demand**: The growth rate of shipbuilding plate production from January to November increased by 29% year - on - year, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic. [57] 2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In December, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.387 million, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The production of power cells increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 124.55 GWh from January to December. In January, the production of ternary power is expected to decrease by 6.1% month - on - month. [62] - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100%. [67] - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: In 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, while the production of ternary precursors increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for nickel sulfate slowed down, but the price followed the rise of refined nickel. [69] - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, and the good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated production recovery. [75] 2.4 Overall Situation of Pure Nickel - The production of pure nickel has recovered, and the supply surplus has expanded, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation in the market. [76] Trading Logic and Strategies - **Nickel**: Considering the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, it is recommended not to overly rely on industry constraints such as supply - demand and cost. Instead, multiple dimensions such as the macro - environment, capital flow, and market sentiment should be comprehensively considered. After the price has risen rapidly, the volatility has increased, so it is recommended to control positions and operate with caution. For unilateral trading, buy on pullbacks; for options, wait and see for the time being. [6] - **Stainless Steel**: Although the inventory of stainless steel has been reduced well recently, it has not attracted a large amount of capital inflow, so the increase is relatively limited. However, due to the low inventory level of downstream and insufficient arrival of goods at steel mills, there is inventory replenishment when the price pulls back, and it is also difficult for the price to decline sharply. It passively follows the nickel price to operate at a high level. For unilateral trading, it passively follows the high - level operation of the nickel price; for arbitrage, wait and see for the time being. [9]

沥青周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 百川盈孚统计，本周四国内沥青厂装置开工率为29.06%，较本周一下降2.85%；沥青总库存水平为24.36%，较本周一下 降0.37%；社会库存率为24.19%，较上周日下跌0.15%。前期油价偏弱，市场对沥青原料供应矛盾有所消化，叠加需求淡 季且沥青盘面裂解高位，沥青维持高位震荡格局。隔夜油价大涨，沥青成本端支撑明显，短期盘面预计高位震荡。 【策略】 单边：高位震荡。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据 ...

橡胶板块2026年1月第2周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 供应方面：天然橡胶因云南产区全面停割，供应维持国内降、海外增的趋势，泰国、越南天气正常，新胶呈现旺季表现。顺丁橡胶国内高顺 顺丁装置平均开工负荷为75.9%，较上周走高1.09个百分点，装置负荷提升，其他装置维持正常生产。 需求方面：下游轮胎企业开工有所恢复，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.54%，较上周走高0.60个百分点，维持刚需采购，套利环节多 以正套加仓为主。 库存方面：青岛地区天然橡胶总库存增长至54.43万吨，较上期增加2.49万吨，涨幅4.79%；其中保税区内库存为9.31万吨，较上期增加 0.75万吨，涨幅8.89%；一般贸易库存为45.12万吨，较上期增加1.73万吨，涨幅3.99%。高顺顺丁橡胶库存走高，增幅1.26%，胶厂库存整 体窄幅走低，市场环节库存水平窄幅抬升。 ◼【策略推荐】 1.单边：RU主力05合约空单持有，宜在16135点近日高位处设置止损；NR主力03合约观望；BR主力03合约观望。 2.套利：RU2605-NR2605（1手对1手）报收+3030点持有，宜在+295 ...

Report Title - Natural Gas: LNG in Low-level Fluctuations, Support Remains Below HH [1] Core Viewpoints - There is no clear core view presented in the provided text Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - There is no specific content provided for this chapter Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis LNG Market Fundamental Situation - From December 27, 2025, to January 2, 2026, certain data showed values of 104.8 and 2.8, with a +2.8% change; another showed 112.5 and 8.9, with a -7.3% change [10] - On January 9, LNG had a value of 184.6, and other related LNG values were 157.54 and 86.55 [10] - On January 8, electricity generation was 643.2 TWh, a decrease of 130.9 TWh (-17.9%) compared to a certain period, and accounted for 56.3% and 68.2% in different aspects [10] - On January 8, LNG power generation was 4628 GWh/day, accounting for 28.3% [10] - Another value was 1.60 GWh/day with a 14.4% change, and 10.1 TWh/day with a 13.6% change [10] - ECMWF and NOAA forecasts indicated temperature changes of 3 - 6°C and 1 - 2 - 3°C in different regions [10] US Market Fundamental Situation - On a certain day in January, the data was 32560, with changes of 1190 and 1230, and percentage changes of 3.6% and 0.9% [12] - On January 9, the dry gas production was 1136/day, a 0.2% increase from the previous week and a 9.8% increase year-on-year. Baker Hughes data showed related changes [12] - On January 9, domestic demand was 1046/day, a -7.7% week-on-week change and a -16.7% year-on-year change. Other consumption data also had corresponding changes [12] - On January 9, the liquefaction export project flow was 193, a -1.9% week-on-week change and a 26.7% year-on-year change [12] - ECMWF forecasted a temperature change of 1.5 - 2.5°C in January [12] Chapter 3: Core Data Tracking International Natural Gas Prices - Graphs showed TTF - HH spreads, international natural gas prices (JKM, TTF, HH), HH month spreads, and TTF month spreads from January 2025 to November 2025 [16] Forward Curves - Forward curves of HH, JKM, and TTF were presented from 2602 to 2711 [19] China's LNG Supply and Demand - Graphs showed China's LNG supply (domestic and imported by tank trucks) from January 2025 to January 2026, and China's natural gas supply and demand from December 2025 to January 2026 [22] China's LNG Factory Prices and Inventory - Graphs showed China's LNG factory prices (settlement prices in different regions) from January 2025 to January 2026, and China's inventory situation (receiving station inventory and storage reservoir inventory) [25] European Natural Gas Data - Graphs showed European natural gas inventory, northwest European gas - coal conversion intervals, European LNG imports, and the quantity of floating storage tanks over 20 days from January to December [28] - Graphs showed European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, etc.) and European domestic production from February 2024 to January 2026 [31] US Natural Gas Data - A supply - demand balance sheet showed US natural gas supply (dry gas production, Canadian pipeline gas imports) and demand (domestic demand, various consumption types, exports) for the current week, last week, and the same period last year, with corresponding percentage changes [33] - Graphs showed US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefaction export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption from different time periods [36][39] Temperature and Wind Forecasts - Graphs showed ECMWF and GFS temperature and wind forecasts from January 5 to February 16, 2026, compared with historical averages [42][45]