Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short term, the market is influenced by production data, while in the long term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase are key factors. Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,721 with a 0.02% increase, SR2507 at 5,750 with a 0.17% decrease, and SR2509 at 5,619 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes for SR2511, SR2507, and SR2509 decreased by 32.70%, 7.34%, and 12.38% respectively, and open interests decreased by 4.11%, 5.30%, and increased by 1.70% respectively [3]. - **Spot Market**: Sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, and other regions ranged from 5,865 to 6,420 yuan/ton. The basis for Liuzhou was 379 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread was 131 with a decrease of 1, SR09 - SR11 was 102, and SR07 - SR09 was 29 with a decrease of 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The in - quota and out - of - quota import prices from Brazil were 4,398 and 5,621 yuan/ton respectively, with a spread of 479 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou. For Thailand, the corresponding prices were 4,434 and 5,668 yuan/ton, with a spread of 432 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou [3]. Market Judgment - **International**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales rates may support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected global supply increases, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term due to delayed summer stocking demand, weak raw sugar, and increased out - of - quota import profits [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Expected to remain weak in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10].

股指期货数据日报 2025年6月23日 | 单位：点、手、亿元 | | | | | | | | | 单位：手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | 中证1000 | 6078.22 | 1.31% | 19,356 | 7 | % 2,400 | 6 % | | | | | IM2507 | 6001.40 | 1.01% | 61,615 | -3% | 736 | -3% | 98,395 | 1,899 | 142 | | IM2508 | 5929.60 | -0.20% | 3,300 | | 3 9 | | 3,252 | 3,252 | 5 | | IM2509 | 5851.20 | 1.01% | 99,867 | 18% | 1,163 | 18% | 153,037 | 6,910 | 215 | | IM2512 | 5676.00 | 0.89% | 18,379 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be under pressure due to the global sugar market's expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season. The ISO has raised its estimate of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, while Datagro predicts a global sugar surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9] - The price of raw sugar has recently declined due to the expectation of increased global supply, and the price center has shifted downward. Domestically, the summer stocking demand is lagging, and the short - term weakness of raw sugar has led to a rise in the profit of out - of - quota imports. The supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the price fluctuations of raw sugar in the short term [4] - Considering that Brazil is about to enter the peak supply period, the global sugar inventory is expected to start accumulating. Raw sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend overall, and the short - term price will be affected by phased production data. In the domestic market, the fast sales - to - production ratio is expected to support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil approaching the supply peak, global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate, and raw sugar will likely oscillate. Short - term price movements will be influenced by production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [3] - Domestically, the fast sales - to - production ratio supports sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar may pull prices down. Combined with the weak raw sugar trend, short - term domestic sugar prices will be weak [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Be bearish on the market [5] - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5] - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5] 2. Core Logic Analysis - The expectation of increased global sugar supply has dragged down raw sugar prices, and the domestic summer stocking demand lag, along with the weak raw sugar, has led to higher out - of - quota import profits and impending processed sugar supply pressure, causing Zhengzhou sugar to follow raw sugar prices [4] 3. Weekly Data Tracking International Data - Brazil: In the second half of May, sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 8.86% year - on - year. In June, the first two weeks' sugar and molasses exports were 1.53 million tons, a 12.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 1.94% week - on - week [10][20] - India: The NFCSF estimates the 2024/25 season's ending sugar inventory to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption in key months in 2025. The sugar ex - factory price is stable. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production, reaching about 35 million metric tons [21] - Thailand: The 2024/25 season ended in April with a total sugar production of 10.03 million metric tons. The OSCB expects the 2025/26 season's production to increase to 10.05 million tons, with an estimated increase in sugarcane planting area [24] Domestic Data - In the 2024/25 season, China's sugar production ended with a total of 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year [27] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons. From January to May 2025, the total sugar imports were 633,200 tons, a 50.31% year - on - year decrease. As of May in the 2024/25 season, China imported 2.095 million tons of sugar, a 33.16% year - on - year decrease [29] - In May 2025, China imported 64,300 tons of syrup and premixed powder, with 47,700 tons under the 2106.90 item [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June, domestic lithium salt production resumed growth, raw material consumption increased, lithium ore inventory decreased, and there was a strong willingness to support prices. However, subsequent arrivals of lithium ore may lead to a spiral decline in lithium salt prices. In July, smelters resumed production, and production reached a new high, further increasing supply pressure [5]. - Consumption side: Subsidies for trade - ins are expected to continue. The energy storage market is currently in a state of "rush to export", but the month - on - month increase is limited. In July, the demand off - season is expected to be obvious, with battery and cathode factories showing signs of destocking and purchasing remaining cautious [5]. - Cost side: Both mines and salt factories are reducing costs, the cost curve is constantly moving down, and the psychological support in the market is also decreasing [5]. - Price outlook: SMM's weekly inventory and production increased month - on - month, smelters accumulated inventory, and downstream destocked. Downstream orders are expected to decline in the off - season, and downstream will maintain a destocking strategy with a high proportion of customer - supplied materials. Spot purchases will remain for just - in - time needs. As some smelters still have profits at current prices and supply resumes growth, inventory is expected to increase rapidly in July, and lithium carbonate prices will be under downward pressure [5]. - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, expect lithium carbonate prices to decline; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Domestic Sales Momentum - From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44% of the total vehicle sales. From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 402,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 57%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 35% [12]. - In June, the growth of new energy vehicles slowed down. On one hand, some cities exhausted subsidies for trade - ins, and there was a time lag in issuing new subsidies. On the other hand, the penetration rate exceeded 50%, limiting the growth space. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the annual wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars will be 15.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%, with a penetration rate of 56% [12]. - The peak - season characteristics of power cell production are not obvious. From January to May, the production is expected to increase by 54% year - on - year to 458.6 GWh, and the month - on - month increase in May was only about 2% [12]. 1.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to April 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 33.9% year - on - year to 5.97 million, compared with a 26.7% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the United States, the cumulative sales increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 523,000, compared with a 10.1% increase in the same period last year. In Europe, the cumulative sales increased by 24.6% year - on - year to 1.118 million, compared with an 11.3% increase in the same period last year. China's new energy vehicle exports increased by 52% year - on - year to 639,000, compared with a 21% increase in the same period last year [18]. - The EU's carbon emissions review has been postponed for two years, and the United States plans to cancel IRA subsidies [18]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - "Rush to Export" Maintains Orders but with Limited Increment - In the northwestern region of China, there is an oversupply of thermal power, the peak - valley electricity price difference has decreased significantly compared with 2023, the demand for wind, solar power, and energy storage has declined, and electricity prices are expected to fall [23]. - The marginal effect of the second round of "rush to export" is diminishing, and the month - on - month increase is relatively limited. The US plan to cancel IRA subsidies has a significant impact on local energy storage project construction [23]. - SMM expects the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells from January to May to be 166.7 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, compared with a 42% increase in the same period last year [23]. 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduled in June Remained Flat Month - on - Month - SMM's production schedule for June: Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, while ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month [26]. - From January to May, the cumulative production of power and energy storage cells increased by 57% year - on - year to 625.33 GWh [26]. - The spot market has difficulty in shipping. Due to smelter production cuts and reduced shipments, the basis is strong, but the downstream customer - supplied proportion is high, the receiving capacity is limited, and trading is light [26]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Increased - This week's rebound in lithium carbonate prices stimulated the continuous growth of weekly production. As smelters gradually resumed production in June, monthly production is expected to reach a new high. SMM expects June's lithium carbonate production to increase by 9% month - on - month to 78,800 tons [30]. - In May, the supply of lithium ore gradually became abundant, and lithium ore prices declined. It is expected that arrivals in June will continue to increase, and lithium ore prices still have room to fall [30]. - Due to the increase in recovery rate and the decrease in processing fees, the cost of converting the same ore price into lithium salt is lower than the same period last year [30]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not further elaborated on specific data trends in the given content, only the charts of production by different raw materials (salt lake, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling) are provided [32] 2.3 Supply Pressure of Lithium Carbonate Still Existed in June and Increased Further in July - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January to May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [42]. - Currently, Chile exports lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate to China, which diverts part of the lithium carbonate import volume. Although the apparent import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, the supply of lithium elements still exerts significant pressure [42]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Dynamics Turned to Surplus - Not further elaborated on specific surplus data and analysis in the given content, only the chart of lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is provided [44] 2.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory Continued to Accumulate - Lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate this week. As demand enters the off - season, downstream purchases cautiously and actively destocks. Spot demand remains low, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" persists [48]. - Since the current term structure does not provide delivery profits, spot - futures traders only choose to deliver when they cannot sell their spot goods, so the warehouse receipts may remain at a low level [48]. - Spot feedback indicates that inventory at all links in the industrial chain is not low, and it is difficult for upstream to sell goods. Inventory is expected to continue to increase, presenting an opportunity for reverse arbitrage [48].

工业硅周报:或还有一轮下跌，等待矛盾积累 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 5 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 2 工业硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 供需情况：DMC产量暂稳，出口和铝合金对工业硅的需求变化不大，6月多晶硅产量环比5月增加2000-3000吨。 综合来看，受有机硅和多晶硅拉动，6月工业硅需求环比5月或增加1-1.5万吨。供应方面，云南、四川部分企业开始逐 渐复产，龙头大厂本周开炉数增加，6月工业硅产量环比5月增加2-3万吨。 策略分析：近两周工业硅期货价格反弹，一方面是商品情绪普遍好转，焦煤价格反弹带动，另一方面是下游采购意 愿增加，仓单持续去化。总体而言，工业硅供需过剩的格局并未改变，近期纸面库存降低有下游采购增加的原因，更多 是部分现货被"锁住"失去流动性，进而导致现货价格和基差偏强。随着工业硅产量持续增加，现货市场流动性逐渐充 裕，现货价格可能进一步下跌，此外，倘 ...

需求转弱 镍价下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 需求端 宏观方面，关税前景多变，地缘冲突升级，市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动，美元上涨。 6月逐步进入传统淡季，市场按需逢低采购，成交略有好转；不锈钢降价减产或将导致NPI减产；电动车去库影响三 元电池订单，拖累硫酸镍减产。 供应端 供应端 头部钢厂仍在国内生产，减产多为印尼和国内中小型钢厂，200系为主。 国内镍铁厂倒挂明显，维持低开工率。印尼低成本镍铁产量增加，利多矿价。 300系不锈钢累库压力较大，代理出货情况不理想。 精炼镍6月产量预计环比小幅下降，匹配需求淡季。净进口因进口亏损收窄有所上升。 镍矿价格坚挺，但下游接受度下降，上下游博弈，后市关注NPI减产情况，预计镍矿三季度见顶。 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 地缘冲突升级，市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动，符合市场预期。精炼镍6月需求放缓，三元电池产量环比负增 长，中印不锈钢均有减产计划，合金电镀也进入淡季， ...

锌：供应放量态势不改 锌价依旧承压 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 交易逻辑与策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 矿端，6月预计国内北方矿山基本完成复产。国内锌精矿产量仍持续释放。6月进口锌精矿窗口关闭，但前期锁价的货物仍有流入。整体看，6月国内锌精矿供 应预计维持偏松，当前国产锌精矿加工费3600元/吨，进口锌精矿加工费45美元/吨。锌精矿加工费仍有上调趋势。 ➢ 冶炼端，6月国内进口矿的补充和国内矿山的产量释放，加工费继续上涨，冶炼厂原料充足下，生产积极性较高；6月精炼锌进口窗口关闭，但前期锁价的货物 仍有流入。预计6月国内精炼锌供应或有明显增加。 ➢ 消费方面，当前锌消费仍处淡季，但国内"以旧换新"政策的延续或对消费仍有一定提振。关注基建、汽车、家电等消费的情况。 ➢ 库存数据：截至6月19日， SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.96万吨，较6月12日增加0.25万吨，较6月16日增加0.15万吨。LME锌库存（6月20日）12 ...

铅周报：需求未见好转 铅价维持震荡 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，本周国内原生铅冶炼厂开工仍维持高位，对铅精矿需求度较大。国产铅精矿加工费下调50元/金属吨至550元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费下调10美元/干 吨至-55美元/干吨。近期含铅废料回收困难，废料价格小幅上涨。据SMM数据，截至本周五废电动车电池均价+0.49%至10225元/吨，废白壳均价+0.5%至10125元/吨， 废黑壳均价+0.24%至10450元/吨。 ➢ 冶炼端，本三省原生铅开工率较上周下滑0.79%至70%，河南、云南地区开工维持稳定，湖南地区某冶炼厂生产边际波动，开工小幅下滑。云南地区此前预期检修的冶炼厂将 于下周进入常规检修，本周生产仍维持稳定。三省样本外，华北地区此前定于6月常规检修的某冶炼厂电解铅常规检修如期进行，华东地区某冶炼厂生产小幅提产。本周再生 铅四省周度开工率为29.66%，较上周下滑2.41 ...