棉系周报：基本面有所支撑 棉花震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: Slight Increase in Demand, Faster Apple Outbound [1] Core Viewpoint - This season's apple warehouse receipt cost is high due to low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than the same period last year, the Spring Festival is postponed this year, so the peak sales season is also delayed, and the current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the outbound volume remains normal, the later apple supply will be tight. If the apple demand maintains a normal state, the price of the May contract is likely to rise [14]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the number of inquiring merchants in late - Fuji apple production areas slightly increased, with different trading atmospheres in each area. The outbound of fruit farmers' goods was concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. Most merchants packed their self - stored goods, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods focused on low - priced products. The overall shipment volume was small, and the price was stable or slightly weak. In the sales areas, the transaction was still sluggish, with reduced arrivals and increased pressure on sales and inventory in transit warehouses [6]. - **Main Production Area Prices**: In Shandong, the cold - storage trading was cold, with limited overall transfer volume. In Shaanxi, the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The prices in different regions varied, such as in Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.0 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and in Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 2. Supply Analysis - **Inventory Monitoring**: As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In two weeks (December 25, 2025 - January 8, 2026), the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a 1.53 - percentage - point decrease in two weeks. In Shaanxi, it was 49.18%, with a 2.56 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, it was 51.87%, with a 3.88 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - **Steel Union Data**: As of January 7, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, and the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year [9]. 3. Demand Analysis - **Market Conditions in Guangdong**: In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of morning arrival vehicles decreased compared with last week. The market consumption was average, with reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and there was pressure on daily digestion of arrival vehicles. The inventory in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold [12]. - **Substitute Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [12]. - **Profit Situation**: During the acquisition stage of the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia were suspended [12]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: High apple warehouse receipt costs support the futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than last year, considering the postponed Spring Festival, the demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal outbound volume is maintained, the later supply will be tight. Pay attention to the cold - storage apple outbound situation. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. - **Specific Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 5. Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only relevant data charts of apple export, planting area, and consumption are presented [17][18] - **Inventory and Outbound**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and outbound volume are presented in charts, showing the trends over different weeks [20][21] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Charts show the trends of 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 price differences and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis over different time periods [25][26]

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2301 | 30 | 1.30% | 118 | -94.99% | 9,197 | -25.92% | | C2605 | | 2279 | 7 | 0.31% | 206,298 | 21.06% | 604,112 | 6.18% | | C2509 | | 2297 | 8 | 0.35% | 8,976 | 16.94% | 52,720 | 1.66% | | CS2601 | | 2538 | 18 | 0.71% | 500 | 233.33% | 2,400 | 0.00% | | CS2605 | | 2596 | 18 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Date: January 12, 2026 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] Group 2: Data Futures Market - PK604: Closing price 7860, down 60 (-0.76%); Volume 31,429, down 21.48%; Open interest 34,965, down 4.45% [2] - PK610: Closing price 8262, up 2 (0.02%); Volume 201, down 53.69%; Open interest 2,459, up 1.61% [2] - PK601: No valid data for closing price and change; Volume 0, down 100.00%; Open interest 1,052, down 17.62% [2] Spot Market - **Peanut**: Henan Nanyang 7400 yuan/ton; Shandong Jining 8400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; Shandong Linyi 8400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Peanut Meal**: Rizhao 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Rizhao 3120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2][6] - **Peanut Oil**: 14350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Rizhao first - grade 8320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] Import Price - Sudanese peanuts 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Brazilian new peanuts 9200 yuan/ton; Indian 50/60 peanuts 8000 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Spread - PK04 - PK10 spread: -402, down 62 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Henan peanut prices are stable, while Northeast China's are weak. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 peanuts are 4.6 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 4.6 yuan/jin, stable. Henan's Baisha peanuts are 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable; Shandong Junan 3.5 yuan/jin, stable [4] - Peanut oil prices are stable. Mainstream peanut oil factory purchase prices range from 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a theoretical cost - break price of 7780 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is 14300 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16500 yuan/ton, both stable [4][6] - Rizhao soybean meal prices are up. The unit protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and peanut meal is expected to remain strong in the short term. 48 - protein peanut meal is 3100 yuan/ton [6] - Overall, peanut supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut futures will continue to fluctuate weakly [4][8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Go long on 05 peanuts at low prices as it is in bottom - range oscillation [9] Calendar Spread - Stay on the sidelines [10] Options - Sell PK603 - P - 8200 at high prices [11] Group 5: Related Charts - Chart 1: Shandong peanut spot prices (yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 2: Peanut oil factory crushing profit (yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 3: Peanut oil prices (yuan/ton) [19] - Chart 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (yuan/ton) [19] - Chart 5: Peanut 4 - 10 contract spread (yuan/ton) [21] - Chart 6: Peanut 1 - 4 contract spread (yuan/ton) [21]

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2263（+18/+0.8%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1870 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2070 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，鲁北报价 2100 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2080 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 22100 元/吨，宁波报价 2290 元/吨，广州报价 2190 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20260103-20260109）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 867899 吨，较上周回升 26800 吨，装置产能利用率为 59.49%，较上周回升 1.84%。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开工下降，外盘整体 开 ...

2026年1月 地缘扰动，甲醇坚挺 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月7日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置稳定；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配套60 万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年M ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [2] 1. IM Futures 1.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8357.01, up 2.80%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 298,563 lots, an increase of 50,774 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 403,037 lots, an increase of 9,639 lots [3][4]. - The main contract of IM rose 3.53% to close at 8311.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 45.61 points, up 35.17 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -2.95% [3][4]. 1.2 Main Seats - In IM2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 59,598 lots, an increase of 8,029 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 50,494 lots, an increase of 6,180 lots; etc. [13]. - Similar data were provided for IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 main seats [15][17]. 2. IF Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4789.92, up 0.65%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 156,092 lots, an increase of 7,750 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 301,970 lots, an increase of 2,755 lots [18][19]. - The main contract of IF rose 0.72% to close at 4774 points. The main contract was at a discount of 15.92 points, down 0.8 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -1.79% [18][19]. 2.2 Main Seats - In IF2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 30,321 lots, an increase of 1,803 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 25,305 lots, an increase of 1,116 lots; etc. [31]. - Similar data were provided for IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 main seats [33][34]. 3. IC Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8249.13, up 2.39%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 203,354 lots, an increase of 14,458 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 310,950 lots, a decrease of 7,660 lots [36][37]. - The main contract of IC rose 2.79% to close at 8236.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 12.53 points, up 6.36 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.82% [36][37]. 3.2 Main Seats - In IC2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 43,947 lots, an increase of 978 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 36,151 lots, an increase of 4,183 lots; etc. [50]. - Similar data were provided for IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 main seats [52][54]. 4. IH Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3143.74, up 0.30%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 54,045 lots, an increase of 340 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 91,722 lots, a decrease of 1,098 lots [57]. - The main contract of IH rose 0.3% to close at 3140.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 3.54 points, down 4.02 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.6% [57][58]. 4.2 Main Seats - In IH2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 12,915 lots, an increase of 1,569 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,691 lots, an increase of 234 lots; etc. [70]. - Similar data were provided for IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 main seats [72][74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The log spot price has stabilized due to increased arrivals at ports and inventory accumulation. In the short - term, prices are likely to remain stable under the game of supply and demand, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of the expected increase in the FOB price in February and the recovery rhythm of terminal construction demand [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's shipments decreased due to the Christmas holiday, but the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 479,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17%. The arrivals in Shandong were concentrated while those in Jiangsu were tight. The January FOB price dropped to $110 per JAS cubic meter, and traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling led to good FOB transactions. On the demand side, the demand for construction timber was flat, but the shipments of laminated wood in Shandong were popular. The daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. The capital availability rate of construction sites declined, affecting procurement. The total inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%, with the inventory of radiata pine and North American timber increasing and that of spruce/fir decreasing, and the inventory in core provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu increasing [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, with both supply and demand being weak and cost support, aggressive investors can go long near the previous low. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Core Logic Analysis - The price of 6 - meter logs in Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter due to scarce supply. The price of 3.9 - meter radiata pine in Shandong remained at 740 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine in Taicang remained at 730 yuan per cubic meter. Although the FOB price dropped by $2, traders' stockpiling demand supported market sentiment. Core supporting factors include increased domestic arrivals, high enthusiasm for traders' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, and scarce supply of some specifications. Potential pressures include flat demand for construction timber, a decline in the capital availability rate of construction sites, and a slight decrease in the daily average outbound volume [8] Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: In December 2025, about 55 ships departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 6 ships, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from November. 42 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from November. From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships (350,000 cubic meters) departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship (10,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships (300,000 cubic meters) were directly bound for China, an increase of 2 ships (80,000 cubic meters) compared to the previous week. From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 8% increase from the previous week, and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, a 17% increase from the previous week [19] - **Log Inventory**: As of January 2, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.67 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.12%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.56%. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 42.86%. The spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 6.67%. The total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period, and the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 508,756 cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22] - **Log Demand**: As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3.58%, and the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 11.07%. As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points [26] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.33%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 730 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,160 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year increase of 10.48% [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,240 yuan per cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,800 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [36] - **Import Log Costs**: As of January 5, 2026, the January FOB (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42]

供需趋宽松，造纸承压，上行乏力 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 第一部分综合分析与交易策略 第二部分核心逻辑分析 第三部分周度数据跟踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 目录 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 【策略】 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 纸浆：市场延续供大于求格局，供应端，进口量稳定，国产阔叶浆、化机浆产量小幅波动，港口库存累库至 200.7 万吨，青岛港等多数港口库存呈 增长趋势。需求端，生活用纸、白卡纸等品类消费量 ...