研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/24 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7930 | -18 | -0.23% | 18,629 | 67.89% | 40,696 | -25.13% | | PK610 | 8250 | -18 | -0.22% | 214 | -22.18% | 3,154 | 15.28% | | PK601 | 8222 | -36 | -0.44% | 22 | -56.00% | 42 | 23.53% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price has risen, while the price of Northeast corn has remained stable. However, there will still be a slight selling pressure in Northeast China in March, and the price of Northeast corn will fall later, as will the 05 corn contract [8]. - The price of North China wheat is stable, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upward space [6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and that in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The spot price of starch is mainly determined by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. The price of by - products has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The spot price of North China corn is expected to rise, and the spot price of starch will also rise in the short term, but the 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 all increased, with price increases of 11, 12, 17, 20, 25, and 37 respectively, and corresponding price increase rates of 0.48%, 0.51%, 0.72%, 0.76%, 0.94%, and 1.38%. The trading volume of C2601, C2509, CS2509 increased by 43.04%, 47.64%, 41.78% respectively, while that of C2605, CS2601, CS2605 decreased by 7.37%, 53.49%, 16.90% respectively. The open interest of all contracts increased, with the increase rates ranging from 3.21% to 19.12% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc. showed different degrees of change, with the price of Zhucheng Xingmao increasing by 10 yuan, Shouguang by 24 yuan, Jinzhou Port by 5 yuan, Nantong Port by 30 yuan, and Guangdong Port by 20 yuan. The spot prices of starch in different regions also changed, with Yufeng increasing by 10 yuan and Jinyu Corn by 40 yuan. The basis of corn and starch in different regions also varied [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In the corn inter - delivery spread, C01 - C05 was - 32 with a change of - 1, C05 - C09 was - 22 with a change of - 5, and C09 - C01 was 54 with a change of 6. In the starch inter - delivery spread, CS01 - CS05 was - 20 with a change of - 5, CS05 - CS09 was - 24 with a change of - 12, and CS09 - CS01 was 44 with a change of 17. In the cross - variety spread, CS09 - C09 was 333 with a change of 20, CS01 - C01 was 343 with a change of 9, and CS05 - C05 was 331 with a change of 13 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The US corn market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, but it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2,213 yuan. The closing price of northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China is low, and the spot price has risen. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat - to - corn price difference has decreased, and the cost - effectiveness of corn has weakened. The domestic aquaculture demand will decline in March, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable, but there will be a slight decline in March, and the short - term upward space of the 05 corn contract on the futures market is limited [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and that in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, with the factory inventory reaching 1.118 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from last week, a monthly increase of 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The price of starch is mainly determined by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. The price of by - products has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The spot price of North China corn is expected to rise, and the spot price of starch will also rise in the short term, but the 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The 05 US corn contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. Try to short the 05 corn contract at high prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the spread between 05 corn and starch contracts at low prices [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments There are six figures in total, including the closing price of northern port corn, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the spread of the 05 corn starch contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [14][15][19].

研究所 液化气研发报告 液化气日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 液化气日报 日度数据 | | | 液化气数据汇总表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/23 | | 涨跌 | | 国内期货 | PG2602 | 4582 | #N/A | | #N/A | | 主力持仓 | | 80250 | #N/A | | #N/A | | 仓单数量 | | 6679 | #N/A | | #N/A | | 国内现货 | 华南炼厂气 | 4760 | 4740 | | 20 | | 华南进口气 | | 4830 | 4840 | | -10 | | 华东炼厂气 | | 4424 | 4444 | | -20 | | 华东进口气 | | 2013 | 5026 | C | -13 | | 山东炼厂气 | | 4500 | 4500 | | 0 | | 山东醚后C4 | | 4380 | 4480 | | -100 | | 基差 | | 166.0 | #N/A | | #N/A | | 外盘价格 | B ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The rigid demand in each region has not yet recovered, but it is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival and with better weather. Under the support of low inventory, low supply, and cost, the spot prices in each region remain basically stable. There are still expectations of a medium - term raw material shortage and cost increase for asphalt [6] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On February 24, 2026, compared with February 13, 2026, BU2603 (the main contract) rose from 3264 to 3334, an increase of 70 or 2.14%; BU2604 rose from 3280 to 3348, an increase of 68 or 2.07%; BU2605 rose from 3284 to 3364, an increase of 80 or 2.44%; SC2603 rose from 460.7 to 493.3, an increase of 32.6 or 7.08%; Brent first - line rose from 67.33 to 71.65, an increase of 4.3 or 6.42%. The main contract position increased from 14.3 to 14.6 (in ten thousand lots), an increase of 0.3 or 1.76%, and the trading volume decreased from 16.9 to 15.4 (in ten thousand lots), a decrease of 1.5 or 8.59%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased from 69070 to 77620 tons, an increase of 8550 or 12.38% [2] - **Basis and Spread**: BU04 - 05 decreased from - 4.00 to - 16.00, a decrease of 12.00 or - 500.00%; BU04 - 03 increased from - 16.00 to - 14.00, an increase of 2.00 or 12.50%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased from 60.00 to 82.00, an increase of 22.00 or 36.67%; the East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20.00 to - 68.00, a decrease of 48.00 or - 240.00%; the South China - main contract basis decreased from 30.00 to - 38.00, a decrease of 68.00 or - 226.67% [2] - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price rose from 3210 to 3300, an increase of 90.00 or 2.80%; the East China market price rose from 3260 to 3280, an increase of 20.00 or 0.61%; the South China market price remained unchanged at 3310. Shandong gasoline decreased from 7319 to 7225, a decrease of 94.00 or - 1.28%; Shandong diesel decreased from 5619 to 5561, a decrease of 58.00 or - 1.03%; Shandong petroleum coke increased from 2750 to 2800, an increase of 50.00 or 1.82%. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate middle price increased from 6.9398 to 6.9414, an increase of 0.00 or 0.02% [2] - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit decreased from - 26.90 to - 199.13, a decrease of 172.23 or - 640.17%; the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from - 49.69 to - 307.39, a decrease of 257.70 or - 518.63%; the BU - SC cracking decreased from - 460.46 to - 638.26, a decrease of 177.80 or - 38.61%; the gasoline spot - Brent decreased from 861.57 to 552.67, a decrease of 308.90 or - 35.85%; the diesel spot - Brent decreased from 47.14 to - 229.90, a decrease of 277.04 or - 587.68% [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Market Overview**: On February 24, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3365 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton increase or 1.18% compared with the previous day. During the Spring Festival, demand and road transportation were restricted, but crude oil prices rose significantly. Supported by costs, northern traders mainly raised their quotes, driving up the average domestic asphalt market price. In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose by 85 to 3250 - 3350 yuan/ton. Although the international situation was volatile and crude oil prices were strong, the overall transaction was average due to insufficient recovery of rigid demand. In addition, some refineries in Shandong resumed production, and there was still a contract to be executed at the end of the month, so the short - term asphalt price was weak. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3280 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the cost and futures market were strong during the Spring Festival, the demand in the region had not recovered, and the overall market transaction was average. The inventory of the main refineries was controllable, and the shipping price might still rise. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3240 - 3300 yuan/ton. The market demand was gradually weakening, and the inventory level was low, so the price remained stable. The actual market demand may continue to decrease, and the local mainstream price may remain stable in the short term [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The rigid demand in each region has not yet recovered, but it is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival and with better weather. Under the support of low inventory, low supply, and cost, the spot prices in each region remain basically stable. There are still expectations of a medium - term raw material shortage and cost increase for asphalt [6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of gasoline from Shandong local refineries, and the price of diesel from Shandong local refineries [9]

粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 【粕类日报】利多反应充分 盘面整体下行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/2/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2950 | -14 | 天津 | 360 | 370 | -10 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2781 | -19 | | 260 | 270 | -10 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2890 | -16 | | 260 | 270 | -10 | | 日照 | | | | | 280 | 280 | 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2263 | - 1 | 南通 | 240 | 221 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic disturbances, there are export restrictions and concerns in major high - sulfur fuel supply regions like Russia and Iran. However, the current situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter remains. Geopolitics is the main bullish driver, and the near - term logistics supply from Russia and Iran is temporarily stable. On the demand side, after the restriction of Venezuelan oil, the market expects Chinese local refineries to import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes. The increase in state - owned procurement reflects the feedstock demand. For low - sulfur fuel, the near - term supply pressure has decreased. The return of the gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is expected to reduce low - sulfur external supply and exports, and the external low - sulfur logistics is being diverted by the West. The export of low - sulfur heavy crude oil from Sudan's Dar has not met expectations, and the logistics to the Pan - Singapore area is also being diverted. The Al - Zour refinery in the Middle East has maintained a stable high - level of low - sulfur exports after its return. Near - term focus should be on supply and inventory changes in the Pan - Singapore area, as well as domestic refinery quota production and imports [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The price of FU主力 on February 24, 2026, was 2942, up 102 from the previous day. Its position was 30.3 million hands, up 3.8 million hands. The price of LU主力 was 3478, up 217 from the previous day, and its position was 12.5 million hands, up 0.2 million hands. The FU5 - 9 spread was 110, down 20, and the LU3 - 4 spread was - 5, up 5. The LU - FU主力 spread was 536, up 115. The FU05 - outer market 04 spread was 16.5, up 3.9, and the LU05 - outer market 04 spread was 17.4, down 2.2 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The FU warehouse receipts were 1300 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the LU warehouse receipts were 2780, down 1500 [3]. Second Part: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: In the Singapore paper - cargo market, the high - sulfur Mar/Apr monthly spread dropped 2.7 to 1.50 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Mar/Apr monthly spread dropped 0.4 to 2.75 US dollars/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: In January, the sales volume of marine fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) in the UAE totaled 635,835 cubic meters (about 630,000 metric tons), a 6.1% increase from December and a 1.1% increase from January of last year. The market share of high - sulfur fuel increased from 33% to 36%, while the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 67% to 64% [6]. - **Market Judgment**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, geopolitical factors are the main bullish driver for high - sulfur fuel, and the near - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel has decreased [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including Singapore high - sulfur cracking, low - sulfur cracking, gasoline cracking, 10ppm diesel cracking, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, all with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [11][12][14].

天然气日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 研究所 天然气研发报告 天然气市场日报 | | | | 国际天然气价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元/MMBTU | 2026/2/23 | 2026/2/20 | 2026/2/17 | | 2026/1/23 日度涨跌幅 7日涨跌幅 | | 30日涨跌幅 | | HH 2603 | 2.985 | 3.047 | 3.031 | 3.609 | -2.03% | -1.52% | -17.29% | | HH 2604 | 2.921 | 2.984 | 2.938 | 3.501 | -2.11% | -0.58% | -16.57% | | JKM 2604 | 10.725 | 10.66 | 9.96 | 11.07 | 0.61% | 7.68% | -3.12% | | JKM 2605 | 10.53 | 10.395 | 9.86 | 10.48 | 1.30% | 6.80% | 0.48% | | TTF 2603 | 31.834 | 32. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber market is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with demand growth in China, Europe, and the US expected to recover moderately [2] - The production of domestic butadiene has increased in the past 4 weeks, and the warehouse receipts of the BR contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have significantly increased [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The BR main 04 contract closed at 12,590 points, down 190 points or 1.49%. In Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber was priced at 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and private cis - butadiene rubber was 12,200 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the East China market, Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, and in the South China region, Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber was 12,500 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Shandong's Fushun Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was priced at 12,800 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and butadiene in Shandong was 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [1] - **RU/NR Natural Rubber**: The RU main 05 contract closed at 16,315 points, down 135 points or 0.82%. The Japanese rubber main continuous contract closed at 354.5 points, up 7.4 points or 2.1% during the festival. The WF in the sales area was priced at 16,150 - 16,200 yuan/ton, and the Vietnamese 3L blend was 16,700 yuan/ton. The NR main 04 contract closed at 1,380 points, down 190 points or 1.42%. The Singapore TF main 05 contract closed at 193.8 points, up 2.0 points or 1.0% during the festival. The Thai standard near - port shipments were priced at 1,960 - 1,980 US dollars/ton, Thai blends near - port shipments were 1,960 - 1,980 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - denominated mixed rubber spot was 15,250 - 15,300 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) stated that with the accelerated growth of the automotive industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. Global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. Demand growth in China, Europe, and the US is expected to moderately recover in 2026, influenced by factors such as rising new - car registrations in the EU, expected increases in US tire shipments, trade agreements between the EU and India and between the US and India covering rubber products, and China's continuous incentives for electric vehicle purchases [2] Logical Analysis - As of the pre - holiday period, domestic butadiene production has increased for 4 consecutive weeks to 459,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The warehouse receipts of the BR contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 30.5% to 16,980 tons, and the factory warehouse receipts increased by 3.5% to 22,330 tons, with a total of 39,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9%. In January, domestic butadiene production decreased to 497,800 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.7%, and the growth rate slowed down, slightly bullish for BD [3] Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Wait and see for the BR main 04 contract, and pay attention to the support at the recent low of 12,530 points [3] - **Arbitrage (long - short)**: Wait and see [3] - **Options**: Wait and see [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The L main 2605 contract is recommended for observation, focusing on the support at the previous low of 6600 points; the PP main 2605 contract is recommended for a small - scale short - trial, and a stop - loss should be set at the recent low of 6620 points. For arbitrage and options, the recommendation is to observe [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - L plastic: The L main 2605 contract closed at 6644 points, down 90 points or 1.34%. The LLDPE market price was stable, and it was a market with prices but no transactions before the festival. The mainstream transaction prices in North China were in the range of 6520 - 6900 yuan/ton, and in East China, they were in the range of 6620 - 7000 yuan/ton [1] - PP polypropylene: The PP main 2605 contract closed at 6568 points, down 80 points or 1.20%. The domestic PP market price changed little before the festival. In North China, the price of PP continued to consolidate, and the mainstream transaction price of drawstrings was in the range of 6460 - 6570 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Important Information - The Waste Technical Adaptation Committee of the EU's "Single - Use Plastics Directive" approved a draft implementation act, clarifying the accounting rules for recycled polyethylene terephthalate (PET) in the minimum recycled content indicator of plastic beverage bottles. The current minimum recycled content requirement for EU plastic beverage bottles is 25%, which will be increased to 30% in 2030. The draft has two major adjustments: allowing the use of a certified mass - balance method and including chemically recycled PET in the recycled content indicator statistics; and stipulating that as of November 2027, recycled PET produced outside the EU cannot be included in the minimum recycled content indicator of PET beverage bottles. These measures are expected to protect EU PET bottle producers and encourage investment in relevant production facilities [1] Logical Analysis - As of before the festival, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract remained at 0.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%; the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE PP contract increased by 6.6% to 1.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 94.2%. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased to 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.1%, which is favorable for L [2] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Observe the L main 2605 contract and focus on the support at the previous low of 6600 points; for the PP main 2605 contract, conduct a small - scale short - trial and set a stop - loss at the recent low of 6620 points [2] - **Arbitrage (long - short)**: Observe [2] - **Options**: Observe [2]