Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - **PTA**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, and the start - up rate has increased. Polyester load has slightly risen, inventory is stable, the basis is weak, and spot processing fees are at a low level. PX domestic start - up has increased, and overseas plants have restarted. In the future, TA de - stocking will slow down, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are extremely low and have lasted for a long time. With the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - **MEG**: Near - end domestic oil - based EG is stable, coal - based start - up has slightly increased, and overall load has recovered. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restarts. Port inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened, and the benefit ratio has shrunk. New EG devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. In the future, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [6]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - end plants such as Sanfangxiang and Yizheng have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has reached 94.4%. Production and sales have improved, and inventory has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end is stable, raw material stocking has decreased, and finished product inventory has decreased. In the future, the rate of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down. The start - up rate of staple fiber is expected to remain high due to good spot benefits, and inventory pressure is limited. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: National explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. Rainfall has affected rubber tapping [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, data on POY, PX CFR, PTA internal spot, etc. are presented, including prices, spreads, and load rates. For example, on September 10, PX CFR was 67.5, and PTA internal spot was 603 [1]. - **Device Changes**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, and the start - up rate has increased [1]. MEG - **Market Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, data on MEG internal and external prices, cash flow, load, and inventory are provided. For example, on September 10, MEG internal price was 4439, and the load was 74.9 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Near - end domestic oil - based EG is stable, coal - based start - up has slightly increased, and overall load has recovered. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restarts [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From September 1 - 16, 2025, data on spot prices, spreads, and load rates are given. For example, on September 1, the spot price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber was 6540 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Near - end plants such as Sanfangxiang and Yizheng have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has reached 94.4% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From September 1 - 16, 2025, data on prices of Thai glue, cup lump rubber, and various rubber products are presented. For example, on September 1, the price of Thai glue was 1855 [6]. - **Main Contradictions**: National explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. Rainfall has affected rubber tapping [6]. Other Chemical Products - **Ethylene, Pure Benzene, etc.**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, data on prices and production profits of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products are provided. For example, on September 10, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 840, and the production profit of non - integrated styrene was - 338 [10].

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/17 淀粉：进入九月后，企业开始降低库存备战新作季，因此开始对原料玉米采取压价操作。短期看，随着收粮成本下探，产业预计顺势调低成品 淀粉报价，以降价换销路的操作降低库存压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价 格仍维持偏空思路。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/10 2230 | 2260 2280 | 2430 | 63 | 35 296 | 2800 | 2850 | 217 | -27 | | 2025/09/11 2230 | 2260 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 320 | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | 2025/09/12 2230 | 2260 2270 | 2430 | 6 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Information Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the prices in East China were 4499 (-5), in Shandong were 4540 (+10), and in South China were 4550 (+10). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4720 (-70). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3) [1]. - **External Prices**: FEI and CP were 561 (+3) and 552 (+2) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI month spread decreased slightly to -5, and the CP month spread decreased to -11. The external prices increased, with the FEI month spread +1, the MB month spread unchanged, and the CP month spread -2.5 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP was 75 (-3); PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Inventory and Demand - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory both increased. Incoming shipments decreased, while outward shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. Profitability - **Production Profits**: The profit of PDH to produce PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Freight - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1].

声明 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 690.0 5.0 7.0 -12.0 -165.0 25省终端可用天数 21.9 -0.9 2.0 1.0 4.3 秦皇岛5000 598.0 4.0 6.0 -35.0 -162.0 25省终端供煤 587.2 -7.6 -21.4 -52.9 -35.7 广州港5500 760.0 5.0 5.0 -5.0 -150.0 北方港库存 2042.0 -23.0 22.0 -20.0 -99.2 鄂尔多斯5500 480.0 5.0 15.0 -5.0 -140.0 北方锚地船舶 86.0 5.0 23.0 12.0 -19.0 大同5500 540.0 10.0 20.0 -15.0 -170.0 北方港调入量 153.0 -7.4 24.0 15.5 -15.4 榆林6000 617.0 15.0 15.0 -5.0 -186.0 北方港吞吐量 156.7 3.3 20.6 3.9 -11.7 榆林6200 645.0 15.0 15.0 -5.0 -184.0 CBCFI海运指数 682.4 45.8 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Implied Volatility Index, Historical Volatility and Their Spread Charts - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is weighted by the implied volatilities of the two - strike prices above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] 3.2 Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking Chart - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - Specific implied volatility quantile rankings include 0.75 for 50ETF, 0.74 for 300 Index, 0.67 for PTA, etc. [5][6][8]

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - rated research on the non - ferrous metals industry, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient, with an increase in imported copper arrivals but no accumulation of domestic social inventories. Downstream开工 decreased, and they were in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, but the rigid purchasing ability was still good. Macroscopically, copper benefited from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and the overseas interest - rate cut expectation was further priced in. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the third and fourth quarters. If the short - term positive factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream开工 improved, with stable production schedules for photovoltaic modules, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory pattern, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC increased further. In September, due to concentrated maintenance, smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Overseas, the quarterly mine - end increment exceeded expectations, and China's zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons, the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventories continued to rise, while overseas LME inventories decreased, mainly flowing to Europe and the United States. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is about 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton away from opening. In terms of strategy, short - term unilateral positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [2] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level. Demand was generally weak, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, and the macro - level anti - involution sentiment rebounded. The Indonesian parade subsided, but it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, and follow - up attention is needed [3][4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained generally weak, and the short - term macro - level followed the anti - involution expectation. The Indonesian parade subsided, and it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel [6] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year; the expansion of recycling plants led to a general shortage of waste batteries, and recycled lead maintained low - level operation under low profits. Demand had no obvious boost, and recyclers sold in small quantities; from April to August, the concentrate operation increased, but the smelting profit led to a supply shortage, and the TC quotation declined in a chaotic manner. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of batteries was high, the battery operation rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and there was an expectation of supply shortage. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. In September, the market had expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking intensity of terminal consumption and the purchasing intensity of lead ingots were both weak this week. The willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited intensity. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. In August, the primary supply was flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production reduction and resumption of recycled lead occurred, and the supply is expected to be flat. The price rebound improved the recycled lead sales, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and the lead ingot spot was at a discount of 20. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level, and battery factories controlled production. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7][18] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee at the mine end was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Yunnan Tin started maintenance at the beginning of September for about 45 days. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was less than 200 metal tons, and the short - term raw material supply was tight, and the output may gradually increase after October; African tin mines have medium - and long - term increments but unstable short - term output; Indonesian exports are expected to resume in mid - to late September. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, the terminal electronic consumption had expectations of a peak season, but the expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth was strong, and the domestic inventory fluctuated; as Indonesia gradually resumed, the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. At the spot end, there was no obvious improvement in the consumption peak season, and the premium declined slightly. The domestic fundamentals remained in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the phased mismatch in supply in September and the expectation change of a non - prosperous peak season after the supply resumes in October, as well as the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals as a whole. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [11] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with 75 furnaces in operation. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have plans to increase production later. In September, the balance is in a balanced state, and the increment space in the southwest at the current price is limited. The core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm in the southwest and Hesheng, the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, the operation rate is low, and the price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [12][14] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, due to the obvious de - stocking of lithium mines in the early stage, miners were not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also had a sentiment of holding up prices, and most scattered orders were pre - sold. In the spot market, the current basis level strengthened slightly, the large - discount goods decreased compared with the previous period, but the market supply was still abundant, and the quotes of new goods mostly fluctuated around par. The current contradiction is that in the context of an unfinished large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, the resource end faces periodic compliance disturbances. In the context of the current seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction has turned to continuous de - stocking, but the de - stocking amplitude is still small compared with the existing inventory level, and the demand performance has a greater impact on the de - stocking amplitude. In the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is high, and the price support is strong before the disturbances materialize [16]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 15, 2025, was 5056.00, with a daily increase of 1.32265%. The closing prices on September 12 - 9 were 4990.00, 5016.00, 4996.00, and 4970.00 respectively, with corresponding daily changes of -0.51834%, 0.40032%, 0.52314%, and -1.11421% [4]. - The converted US - dollar prices on September 15 - 9 were 611.31, 611.31, 614.44, 612.08, and 608.62 respectively [4]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 15 - 9 was 609, 675, 674, 694, and 720 respectively, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 624, 690, 684, 704, and 740 respectively [4]. Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profits for brands like Jinshi, Xiongshi, and Yinxing were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively. The port US - dollar prices were 780, 730, and 720, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5410, and 5665 [5]. - From September 9 - 15, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, with changes of 0.00. The same was true for the Shandong region average prices [5]. - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) remained unchanged from September 10 - 15, 2025, with changes of 0 [5]. - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper remained mostly unchanged from September 10 - 15, 2025, with the living paper profit margin changing slightly from 7.7571% on September 10 to 8.0245% on September 12 and remaining at this level on September 15 [5]. - The price differences between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, coniferous and natural pulp, coniferous and chemimechanical pulp, and coniferous pulp and waste paper from September 9 - 15, 2025, showed little change [5].

Global Asset Market Performance - On September 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies showed various changes. For example, the US was 4.039% with a latest change of - 0.028%, a one - week change of - 0.002%, a one - month change of - 0.295%, and a one - year change of 0.311%. Other countries like the UK, France, etc. also had their own yield data and changes [3]. - The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies were reported. For instance, the US was 3.520% on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020%, a one - week change of - 0.070%, a one - month change of - 0.100%, and a one - year change of - 0.360% [3]. - The US dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies had different changes. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.317 on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.70%, a one - week change of - 1.89%, a one - month change of - 2.20%, and a one - year change of - 4.60% [3]. - The performance of major economies' stock indices was presented. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6615.280 on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of 0.47%, a one - week change of 1.85%, a one - month change of 2.58%, and a one - year change of 20.20% [3]. - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels had their own changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.24%, a one - week change of 0.46%, a one - month change of 2.37%, and a one - year change of 4.76% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and price changes of A - share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were reported. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.50 with a change of - 0.26% [5]. - Valuation data including PE (TTM) and their环比变化 of indices like CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were provided. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.13 with a环比变化 of 0.00 [5]. - Risk premium data and their环比变化 of some indices were given. For example, the risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 was - 0.41 with a环比变化 of 0.01 [5]. - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in different segments of the A - share market were reported. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1180.37, and the 5 - day average was - 554.63 [5]. - The latest values and环比变化 of trading volumes in different segments of the A - share market were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22773.85 with a环比变化 of - 2435.40 [5]. - The basis and basis percentage of index futures such as IF, IH, and IC were reported. For example, the basis of IF was - 5.26 with a basis percentage of - 0.12% [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and price changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were reported. All of them had a change of 0.00% on September 15, 2025 [6]. - The money market rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were reported. For example, R001 was 1.4474% with a daily change of - 2.00 BP [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Group 2: Price Data Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price Changes from September 9 - 15, 2025**: WTI increased by $0.61 to $63.30, BRENT by $0.45 to $67.44, DUBAI by $0.54 to $70.74 [3] - **Other Products**: SC increased by 12.80 to 488.10, OMAN decreased by 0.39 to 69.71 [3] Other Oil - Related Products - **Price Changes**: Japan Naphtha CFR - related data had a 6.70 change in the differential with BRT, Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST had a - 0.85 change in its differential [3] Group 3: News and Events Conflict - Related - Israel destroyed Gaza's tallest residential building, carried out large - scale night air strikes on Gaza City, and attacked a Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon [3] - Israel's military launched a ground offensive on Gaza City on Monday, aiming to eliminate Hamas [3] Iran - Related - Iran is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a resolution condemning the US - Israeli nuclear facility attack in June [3][5] - Iran's top nuclear official warned of chaos if a related proposal is vetoed [5] Other News - Goldman Sachs said that due to strong supply growth, oil prices may fall further next year, but multiple factors could lead to an earlier rebound [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - **US Data (09/05 Week)**: US crude exports decreased by 113.9万桶/日 to 274.5万桶/日, domestic production increased by 7.2万桶 to 1349.5万桶/日 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 393.9万桶 to 4.25 billion barrels, SPR inventory increased by 51.4万桶 to 4.052 billion barrels [5] - **Domestic China (9/5 - 9/11)**: Mainland refinery operating rates had minor fluctuations, Shandong refinery operating rates rose slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory increased [5] Group 5: Weekly View - **Price Movement**: Oil prices rose this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news [5] - **Fundamentals**: The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude and refined product inventories rising, and global refinery profits falling [5][6] - **Forecast**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price central level is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel, and the mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]

2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -57% 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/16 (200) | | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 106.35 | 0.70 | 1.20 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 785 | -3 | 2 | | 840.0 | 103 ...