目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 核心观点 宏观：6月7日讯，美联储哈克表示，在美国金融体系面临日益增长的挑战之际，赤字必须受到控制，对当前政府财政状况"非常担忧"。哈 克还表示："在关键数据方面，我们正变得越来越盲目。我们担忧经济数据的质量正在下降。不确定性使得预测货币政策前景变得非常困难 。但在不确定性之中，今年晚些时候美联储仍有可能降息。 基本面：上周锌价延续震荡整理走势，宏观方面相对平淡，进入6月份，传统淡季趋近，关注社库拐点。从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿 周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至 冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求 一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也 难有增量预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, corn prices showed a volatile trend. In the international market, recent favorable weather in US corn - growing regions is conducive to the completion of corn sowing and growth. The phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 5th released positive signals again. Coupled with the net export sales of 110,200 tons of US corn last week meeting expectations, US corn prices were volatile. In the domestic market, winter wheat is gradually being harvested from north to south. As of June 5th, the national winter wheat harvest progress reached 52.32%. Due to the generally low opening prices, reserves in many areas have started to enter the market to purchase wheat, which will support wheat prices. Currently, there is little remaining corn inventory, and with slower shipments from traders, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises remains low. In the short - term, domestic corn spot prices fluctuate. In terms of demand, feed enterprises currently have relatively sufficient inventories. The off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking, and feed enterprises purchase as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry is entering an off - season, but the recovery of processing profits has slightly stimulated demand. In the short - term, domestic corn may rebound due to reduced trader shipments and the support of wheat prices from reserve purchases. In the long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a bullish expectation for far - month corn [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 442.00 cents per bushel this week, down 1.50 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.34%. The C2507 corn closed at 2,340 yuan per ton, up 4 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.17% [8]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - US Corn Weather**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - growing regions is average, and temperatures return to normal [13]. - **External Market - US Corn Sowing**: As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 69%, in line with market expectations, up from 68% the previous week and down from 75% in the same period last year. The US corn planting rate was 93%, also in line with expectations, up from 87% the previous week, compared with 90% last year and a five - year average of 93% [13][21]. - **External Market - US Corn Exports**: As of the week ending May 29, the net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season were 942,000 tons, up from 917,000 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 season, net sales were 160,000 tons, up from 31,000 tons the previous week [13][25]. - **Domestic - Wheat Harvest**: As of June 5, the national winter wheat harvest progress was 52.32%. In Henan, nearly 85% of the harvest was completed; in Jiangsu and Shaanxi, nearly 45%; in Shanxi, nearly 20%; and in Shandong, over 15%. In Anhui, over 50% of summer sowing was completed; in Henan, over 60%; and in Shaanxi, over 20% [13][27]. - **Demand - Feed Enterprises**: As of June 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.35 days, a decrease of 1.19 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 3.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.15% [31]. - **Demand - Processing Enterprises**: From May 29 to June 4, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 551,700 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 267,900 tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 51.78%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous week [34]. - **Demand - Processing Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 465,400 tons, an increase of 2.81% [38]. - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,100 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 657,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 206,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 114,900 tons, a decrease of 21,800 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The imported sorghum was 315,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week [40]. 3.3. Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking including corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - corn spread, but no specific data is provided [42][43][47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The global soybean fundamentals remained stable, with good weather in US soybean - growing areas, a relatively fast sowing speed, and decent good - quality rates. Brazilian soybean exports were strong, but the June export forecast of 12.55 million tons might be lower than last year. South American soybean exports squeezed the US soybean market, with last week's US soybean export net sales at only 198,000 tons, meeting expectations but decreasing month - on - month. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders on the 5th released positive signals, supporting the US soybean to close higher [6]. - In China, with the continuous increase in imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Recently, strong downstream pick - up has supported the spot soybean meal. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have entered the accumulation cycle. The soybean inventory has risen significantly to 5.8288 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.45%. The soybean meal inventory has slightly increased to 298,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.19% or 558,100 tons [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will fluctuate. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, strong downstream pick - up makes the spot market fluctuate. However, the low oil mill crushing profit supports the oil mills' sentiment to boost the soybean meal price, and the soybean meal futures market is strong. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the expected production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is favorable for far - term US soybeans. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, go long on soybean meal 09 in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 6, the CBOT soybean closed at 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 points from last week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.51%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 3010 yuan per ton, up 42 points from last week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.42% [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will return to normal. As of the week of June 1, the US soybean good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The US soybean planting rate was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%, compared with 76% the previous week, 77% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 80%. The US soybean emergence rate was 63%, compared with 50% the previous week, 53% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57% [13][21] - **US Soybean Export**: As of the week of May 29, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 194,000 tons, compared with 146,000 tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 4000 tons, compared with 33,000 tons the previous week [13][25] - **Argentine Soybean**: As of June 5, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 91%, compared with 84% last week and 92.2% in the same period last year [13][28] - **Brazilian Soybean**: The June export forecast of Brazilian soybeans is 12.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28 million tons. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [33] Supply - In the 22nd week (May 24 - May 30), a total of 38 ships, about 2.47 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][36] Demand - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%, 86,300 tons lower than the forecast. The soybean meal trading volume decreased to 477,600 tons, and the pick - up volume decreased to 804,700 tons [13][39] Inventory - In the 22nd week, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory reached 5.8288 million tons, an increase of 222,500 tons from last week, a 3.97% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 989,800 tons, a 20.45% increase. The soybean meal inventory reached 298,000 tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from last week, a 44.03% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 558,100 tons, a 65.19% decrease [13][42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text for detailed spread tracking analysis.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - For steel, the spot price fluctuates while the futures price rebounds from the low. Supply sees a decline in blast furnace and electric furnace production. Inventory shows a slowdown in building material destocking and an accumulation of plate stock. Demand weakens for both building materials and plates. Profits remain high for blast furnaces but narrow for electric furnaces. The basis changes little, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel will weaken next week, and the black market is expected to return to a weak downward state. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and take partial profits when new lows are reached [6]. - For iron ore, the ore price fluctuates with the futures price rebounding from the low. Supply increases in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals. Demand drops as blast furnace production declines. Inventory decreases slightly at ports and among downstream users. Shipping prices rise. The spread on the futures market narrows, and the coke - ore ratio increases. The supply improves while the demand slows down, and the industry fundamentals are still weak. Next week, it may be dragged down by the weakening of steel products and return to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling view, add short positions on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price of rebar rebounds after hitting a new low this year, with the 10 - contract rising 14 to 2975. The spot price fluctuates, with rebar in East China at 3120 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.56%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.06 percentage points year - on - year. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output is 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week and up 6.05 tons year - on - year [14]. - Electric furnace production: The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week - on - week and up 5.67 percentage points year - on - year. Short - process steel production shows signs of active production cuts due to difficulties in scrap collection and weak demand [20]. - Product output: Rebar production decreases by 7.05 tons, mainly due to rolling - line maintenance and the diversion of hot - metal to profiles and billets. Hot - rolled coil production increases by 9.1 tons to 328.75 tons, mainly in East and North China [23]. 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials: From May 28 to June 3, the national cement outbound volume is 315.7 tons, down 9.8% week - on - week and 25.4% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement is 173 tons, down 7.0% week - on - week and 6.5% year - on - year. The demand drops significantly due to the college entrance examination and rainy weather [26]. - Plates: In May 2025, the monthly average working hours of major construction machinery products are 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year - on - year and 6.25% month - on - month. The monthly start - up rate is 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year - on - year and 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. The internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry weakens [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace: The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, flat week - on - week and up 6.06 percentage points year - on - year. Blast furnace profits are relatively high due to coke price concessions [34]. - Electric furnace: The overall profitability of independent electric arc furnace steel mills continues to decline. The proportion of slightly profitable steel mills decreases by 4.13% week - on - week, and the proportion of loss - making steel mills increases by 8.26% week - on - week. Electric furnaces are basically in the red during peak - power periods, and the short - process loss ratio is high [34]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar: Mill inventory decreases by 1.6 tons, and social inventory decreases by 8.97 tons. The destocking speed slows down, in line with the off - season characteristics [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Mill inventory increases by 1.33 tons, mainly in North China. Total inventory increases by 6.5 tons, corresponding to increased production and weakening demand [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 - contract is 165, narrowing 4 from last week. It is recommended to take profits on previous positive - arbitrage positions around 100 and continue to pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is 4, with the inversion situation reversing completely compared to last week. The near - term price is expected to fall due to the off - season, and the far - term price also faces callback risks, so the far - term price inversion cannot last [49]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 117, widening 2 from last week. The spot spread is 90, widening 60 from last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and there is no obvious driving force for further narrowing, so no operation is recommended [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore rebounds from the low, with the 09 - contract rising 5.5 to 707.5. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rises 1 to 733 yuan/ton. Market sentiment recovers slightly, and downstream users replenish stocks normally [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments: The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3431 tons, up 242 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 3209.4 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 55 tons compared to May last year [60]. - Australia and Brazil shipments: The weekly average shipment volume from Australia is 1852.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 17 tons compared to May last year. The weekly average from Brazil is 793.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 69 tons compared to May last year [63]. - Arrivals: The arrival volume at 47 ports is 2597.4 tons, up 253 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 2485.26 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 25 tons compared to May last year [66]. 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.8 tons per day, down 0.11 tons per day week - on - week, up 13.36 tons per day compared to the beginning of the year, and up 6.05 tons per day year - on - year [69]. - Speculative demand: The daily average port transaction volume is 90 tons, down 2.8 tons week - on - week. Due to continuous hot - metal production cuts and weakening demand, the downstream purchasing intensity is slow [72]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports is 14400.31 tons, down 69 tons week - on - week, down 1210 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1137 tons lower than the same period last year [75]. - Downstream inventory: The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2532.11 tons, down 66.98 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 115.57 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous period [78]. 3.2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China is 10.5 dollars/ton, up 1.6 dollars/ton week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China is 24.6 dollars/ton, up 2.6 dollars/ton week - on - week [81]. 3.2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 36, widening 0.5 from last week, with little change overall. The basis of the 09 - contract is at a neutral - low level, narrowing 12 last week [83]. - The coke - ore ratio is 1.92, and the rebar - ore ratio is 4.21. The coke - ore ratio widens, and the rebar - ore ratio is basically flat. Considering the overall decline of the black - series market, the spread trading fluidity is not high [86].

煤焦周度报告 20250609 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 基本面未有明显改善，双焦反弹力度不足 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 盘面低位反弹，空间预计有限；现货三轮提降落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企略有减产，整体供应仍偏高 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪较弱，出口利润小幅增长，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 下游降库，上游累库，总库存小幅增加 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利微增，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周焦煤供应端消息较多，蒙古国上调煤炭资源税的传闻、主产地煤矿事故频发，或引发减产的猜测；加之中美元首通话，贸易摩擦预期降温；焦煤低 位强势反弹，并带动黑色整体反弹。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨2.82%至1350.5，焦煤09合约涨4.99%至778.5。焦炭方面，三轮提降落地，但 ...

关税再次生变，预计短期震荡偏弱 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国5月芝加哥PMI录得40.5，远低于预期值45和前值44.6，5月一年期通胀率预期终值录得6.6%，低于预期值7.1%，但仍属于偏高位置，滞 涨概率加大；国内汽车价格战遭到官方制止，库存偏高经济偏弱的情况下，有待相关刺激政策出台；特朗普称将把进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，多 国进行对等关税回应，贸易关税不确定性再次增强。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，几内亚出港量暂维持正常 进口： 2025年4月中国氧化铝净出口24.93万吨，环比小幅减少，连续13个月净出口；进口转为小幅盈利 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2997，每吨盈利313元，成本小幅上移，利润小幅走阔；烧碱价格最新价3700元/吨，周度环比上涨50元/吨 ...

Report Title - Trade conflict eases, black commodities rebound from lows. Steel and ore weekly report (May 19, 2025) [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from the Black Industry Group of Zhengxin Futures Industry Research Center [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices soared, and the futures market rebounded from lows. The main contract of rebar rose 1.99% to close at 3014, and the spot price in East China reached 3210 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [6][11]. - Supply: Blast furnace production declined from its peak, while electric furnace production stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.2%, up 2.47 percentage points week-on-week [6][14][22]. - Inventory: Building material inventories were depleted at an accelerated pace, and plate inventories decreased simultaneously. Rebar mill inventories decreased by 3.28 tons week-on-week, and social inventories decreased by 30.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil mill inventories decreased by 6.58 tons, and social inventories decreased by 10.97 tons [6][39][43]. - Demand: Building material demand increased month-on-month, and plate demand remained resilient. From May 8th to May 14th, the national cement delivery volume was 3.5835 million tons, up 7.5% month-on-month. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils remained high due to the 90-day export rush [6][28][31]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to expand, and electric furnace profits at off-peak hours turned positive. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, up 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was -81 yuan/ton, and the off-peak profit was 24 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][36]. - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and attention was paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. The basis of rebar 10 contract narrowed by 10 compared with last week [6][47]. - Summary: The easing of trade conflicts has digested the bullish factors, and the market may return to seasonal characteristics. Maintain a medium-term shorting strategy. Hold existing short positions and consider shorting lightly for those with no positions [6]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. The main contract of iron ore rose 4.6% to close at 728, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port rose 11 yuan to 765 yuan/ton [6][59]. - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and arrivals decreased simultaneously. The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.29 million tons, down 220,000 tons week-on-week. The 47-port iron ore arrival volume was 25.7 million tons, down 640,000 tons week-on-week [6][62][68]. - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, but demand remained at a relatively high level. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, down 8,700 tons week-on-week [6][70][71]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories declined simultaneously. The 47-port iron ore inventory was 147.4699 million tons, down 180,000 tons week-on-week. The imported sinter powder inventory of 114 steel mills was 27.1467 million tons, down 443,300 tons week-on-week [6][78][81]. - Shipping: Shipping prices rebounded. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was 7.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week-on-week. The freight rate from Brazil to China was 18.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars/ton week-on-week [6][84]. - Spread: The futures spread widened, and the coke-to-ore ratio dropped significantly. The 9-1 spread of iron ore was 36, up 10 compared with last week. The coke-to-ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar-to-ore ratio was 4.25, both narrowing [6][87][90]. - Summary: Last week, supply and demand both declined month-on-month. Affected by macro shocks, ore prices rebounded strongly. Considering the drag of finished products in the off-season, the probability of further price increases is low. Maintain a long-term bearish view and pay attention to trading opportunities when prices fall back to previous lows [6].

PTA：聚酯减产负反馈下，PTA承压回落 MEG：多重利好兑现，MEG短期有回调预期 正信期货聚酯周报 20250519 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势缓和，且OPEC+加速增产，需求欠佳的压力仍存，预计油价短期偏弱运行。PX方面，PX加工 费偏低，浙石化更换催化剂，国内PX负荷再次下滑，PX供需尚可，受成本拖累明显，预计PX短期叫原油表现好。 供应端：PTA：四川能投和新疆中泰有重启计划，预计下周PTA产量提升。乙二醇：国产检修超预期增加，开 工率大幅下滑至61%附近，进口维持低位，国产产量与进口量双降预期。 需求端：下周聚酯负荷存下滑预期，装置检修与重启并存，但新装置负荷提升缓慢，且减产计划较多，如恒 力、金纶、中鲈等，预计下周聚酯产量小幅下滑。原料市场在利好消息的发酵影响下连续上涨，部分厂商担心 未来成本走高，故进行集中原料备货，下游原料补货气氛升温，部分厂商备货周期在6月中旬附近。后市来看 织造行业生产积极性较前期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to some traders holding back supplies, the circulation of pulp has tightened temporarily. The main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, oscillated and rebounded within a range of about 300 points last week. It is expected that the price of the main contract of pulp futures will mainly oscillate and rebound within the range of 5260 - 5630 this week. Operationally, when the price rebounds after a mid - week correction and encounters support, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices, with risk control in mind [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star rose to 6300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (or +1.61%); Kalip rose to 6350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +2.42%); Northwood rose to 6500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (or +3.17%). The price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish rose to 4250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +3.66%); Birdie and Alpine rose to 4200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +3.7%). However, the prices of some non - wood pulps such as virgin pulp and bamboo pulp decreased slightly [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review**: The main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, oscillated and rebounded within a range of about 300 points last week, closing at 5356 yuan/ton on the weekly line, up 192 yuan/ton (or +3.72%). The trading volume was 1.145 million lots, an increase of 354,000 lots, and the open interest was 96,200 lots, a decrease of 19,200 lots [17]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of pulp futures and spot decreased slightly as the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures price last week. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 944 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92 yuan/ton compared with last week [20]. - **Log Futures Price Review**: The main contract of log futures, 2507, showed a trend of rising first and then falling with oscillatory adjustments last week, closing at 783.0 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.19%) compared with the previous week. The trading volume was 95,700 lots, an increase of 34,700 lots, and the open interest was 27,400 lots, a decrease of 3,300 lots [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 487,500 tons, a decrease of 8,200 tons (or - 1.66%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 207,000 tons, and the production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 201,000 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 200,000 tons and the production of chemi - mechanical pulp will be about 195,000 tons this week [24]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemi - mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.5%, a decrease of 3.09% compared with the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week [29]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or - 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp was 1.644 million tons, a decrease of 210,900 tons (or - 11.37%); the production of broad - leaf pulp was 803,000 tons, a decrease of 174,800 tons (or - 17.87%); the production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 841,000 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons (or - 4.12%) [30]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemi - mechanical Pulp**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, a decrease of 12.37% compared with the previous month; the capacity utilization rate of chemi - mechanical pulp was 83.62%, a decrease of 0.74% compared with the previous month. The production of bamboo pulp was 264,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons (or - 0.63%); the production of sugarcane pulp was 76,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons (or - 0.54%) [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In April 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.8928 million tons, a decrease of 356,300 tons (or - 10.97%) compared with the previous month and a decrease of 327,200 tons (or - 10.16%) compared with the same period last year. The cumulative import volume from January to April 2025 was 12.53 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (or +1%) compared with the same period last year [39]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 277,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.36%) compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 62.6%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [42]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 77,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons (or +4.05%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.9%, an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous week. The offset paper production was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.5%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.1%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [46]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, in the packaging paper market, the production of white cardboard was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 3.79%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.05%, a decrease of 2.68% compared with the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 457,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons (or +2.93%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 60.8%, an increase of 1.7% compared with the previous week. The production of boxboard paper was 613,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons (or +2.68%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.1%, an increase of 1.8% compared with the previous week [49][52]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, in the tissue paper market, the price of Shandong wood pulp jumbo roll base paper remained stable, the price of Sichuan bamboo pulp jumbo roll base paper remained stable, and the price of Guangxi sugarcane pulp jumbo roll base paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.9%). In the cultural paper market, the price of Shandong 70g offset paper remained stable, and the price of 157g copperplate paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.90%). In the white cardboard market, the price of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 4，00g white cardboard decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.28%), and the price of Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g white cardboard remained stable. In the boxboard and corrugated paper markets, the prices remained stable [53][57][59]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the domestic tissue paper production was 1.258 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons (or - 4.55%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 66.5%, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the previous month. The domestic white cardboard production was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons (or - 7.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.0%, a decrease of 3.02% compared with the previous month. The domestic offset paper production was 832,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (or - 3.48%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.25%, a decrease of 0.16% compared with the previous month. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.5%, an increase of 0.19% compared with the previous month. The domestic pulp consumption in April 2025 was 3.268 million tons, a decrease of 173,000 tons (or - 5.03%) compared with the previous month [62][65][68]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed a trend of accumulation. The inventory of the main port samples was 2.198 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons (or +8.01%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.387 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons (or +5.24%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Changshu Port was 525,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons (or +22.66%) compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Tianjin Port was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons (or - 33.33%) compared with the previous week [72][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 252,600 tons, a decrease of 68,017 tons (or - 21.21%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 227,500 tons, a decrease of 49,412 tons (or - 17.84%) compared with the previous week [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade conflict has eased, but the uncertainty remains high, and the market sentiment is cautious. The hot metal production has started to decline, and the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal remains abundant, and it is expected to continue to reach new lows, with coke following suit. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is weak. The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The coke 09 contract fell 1.03% to 1,445.5 as of Friday's close. Various coke prices, including those at production sites, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [4][9][10]. - The freight for coke transportation by truck has remained stable [17]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke producers are making decent profits, and the supply remains at a high level. As of May 16, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke producers nationwide was 75.7%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 671,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [26][28]. 3.1.3 Demand - The hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. There is still short - term support for the raw material demand, but based on the seasonal decline in demand, the decline in hot metal production is certain, albeit at a slow pace. Some steel mills are controlling the arrival of raw materials. As of May 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous week [36]. - The speculative sentiment is weak, the export profit has slightly rebounded, and the daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market is low [37][39]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Inventories across all sectors have decreased, and the total inventory has declined. As of May 16, the total coke inventory decreased by 113,300 tons to 9,832,200 tons [42]. 3.1.5 Profit - Coke producers' profitability continues to recover, and the coke futures profit has slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coke producers was 7 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous week, and the futures profit of coke 09 increased by 31.5 yuan/ton to 337.25 yuan/ton [61]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The coke 09 contract is slightly at a premium to the spot price, and the 9 - 1 spread is fluctuating. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 20.5 to - 23.4 compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to - 27 [65]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The spot market trading has weakened, and the futures market continues to reach new lows. Most coking coal prices, including those of domestic and imported coals, have either decreased or remained stable [68][71]. 3.2.2 Supply - Coal mines are operating normally, but the operating rate of coal washing plants has declined. As of May 15, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.08%, down 0.34 percentage points from the previous period, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 3,000 tons [74][79]. - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and the import of coking coal in the first quarter increased slightly year - on - year. From January to March 2025, China imported 27.47 million tons of coking coal, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [80][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises are making rigid - demand purchases, while upstream inventories are accumulating, and the total inventory has increased. As of May 16, the total coking coal inventory increased by 65,900 tons to 25,959,400 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The discount of coking coal 09 to the spot price has slightly narrowed, and the 9 - 1 spread is fluctuating. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 15 to 67.5 compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 to - 21.5 [107][108].