沪锌：库存快速去化，现货有所支撑 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 核心观点 全球锌精矿产量 万吨 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 锌矿加工费-年度国际长协基准价 $300 $194 $250 $229 $191 $210 $223 $245 $203 $172 $147 $245 $300 $159 $230 $274 $165 $80 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 产业基本面-供给端 2.2 锌精矿进口量及加工费 ◆ 国内1-3月累计进口锌精矿121.77万实物吨，同比增加36.64%，进口矿进口量环比回升，助推加工费上调。 ◆ 截止4月25日，根据SMM，进口矿加工费报40美元/吨，国产矿加工费报3450元/吨，国产、进 ...

短期供需平衡，花生震荡为主 正信期货花生周报 20250428 农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/ 美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meis ...

节前下游备库情绪一般，盘面反弹力度较弱 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 煤焦周度报告 20250428 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 宏观情绪主导，节前预计震荡走势；现货二轮提涨开启，暂未落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应回升明显 | | | 需求 | 铁水加速回升，钢厂刚需采购为主；投机情绪一般，出口利润下滑，建材现货成交量仍偏低 | | | 库存 | 钢厂刚需采购，焦企略降库，总库存微降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润震荡运行 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周中美贸易摩擦预期反复摇摆，美方态度反复，中方否认开启谈判，加之节前下游备库情绪一般，双焦反弹力度偏弱。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨 0.87%至1566，焦煤09合约涨0.37%至956。焦炭方面，二轮提涨开启，焦企开工延续小幅回升。需求方面，铁水加速回升，短期 ...

Report Title - "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 04 - 28: Production Cut Expectations Released, Black Market Oscillates Strongly" [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded, while the futures market oscillated strongly [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production resumed beyond expectations, and electric furnace production increased slightly [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials inventory slowed down, and plate inventory followed the same trend [7] - Demand: The month - on - month growth rate of building materials demand slowed down, and plate demand was stronger domestically than internationally [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits expanded, while electric furnace losses widened [7] - Basis: The basis widened slightly, and it was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads [7] - Summary: Trade conflicts were still stalemated but overall cooled down. Domestic policies were neutral. The industry saw an acceleration in blast furnace resumption and an increase in overall supply. Demand growth slowed down, and inventory de - stocking speed decreased. The market was expected to oscillate. Strategies included reducing short positions before the holiday and looking for short - selling opportunities after the holiday [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded weakly [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and arrivals decreased significantly [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand was released beyond expectations [7] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream inventory changed little [7] - Shipping: Shipping prices both increased [7] - Spread: The futures spread was flat, and the variety spread changed little [7] - Summary: There were rumors of significant crude steel production cuts in China. Supply tightened, demand increased, and port inventory rebounded. The market rebounded weakly due to production cut expectations. A long - term bearish view was maintained, with short positions reduced before the holiday and caution against policy impacts [7] Steel Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar futures rebounded weakly, with the main contract rising 0.81% to close at 3101. Spot prices oscillated upwards, with East China rebar at 3190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/week. Market sentiment improved, and spot trading volume increased [14] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77 percentage points week - on - week and 4.60 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week - on - week [17] - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased significantly. Rebar short - process production decreased due to profit issues. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.93%, down 0.14 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.51 percentage points year - on - year. Capacity utilization was 56.66%, up 0.33 percentage points week - on - week and 6.17 percentage points year - on - year [22][25] - Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.11 tons last week, mainly due to production conversion and maintenance in some provinces. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.1 tons to 317.5 tons, mainly in the north due to the resumption of previously shut - down mills [29] Demand - From April 16th to April 22nd, the national cement delivery volume was 352.05 tons, up 4.85% week - on - week and down 22.28% year - on - year. Infrastructure cement direct supply was 188 tons, up 2.73% week - on - week and down 1.05% year - on - year. Terminal demand growth slowed down due to the drag of the real estate sector, while speculative demand increased due to production cut rumors [32] - In March, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 7.7% year - on - year. The downstream capacity utilization of hot - rolled coils decreased due to export tariffs, and market orders were affected [35] Profit - The blast furnace profit rate of steel mills was 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and 6.93 percentage points year - on - year. The average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace building materials steel mills was 3349 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit was a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton [40] Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 40.9 tons week - on - week, with a decrease rate of 4.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 6.67 tons, and social inventory decreased in East, South, and North China. It was expected to continue de - stocking in May and start accumulating in June [43] - Hot - rolled coil factory inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased in the South and East but increased in the North. The total inventory de - stocking speed slowed down due to increased supply and decreased terminal orders [46] Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis was 99, 45 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [53] Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 36, 1 more inverted than last week. The near - month building materials production peaked, and terminal demand growth slowed down. It was not recommended to intervene in the spread trading [56] Inter - variety Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 103 on the futures market, 2 narrower than last week, and 70 in the spot market, 10 narrower than last week. It was at a neutral level, and no trading was recommended [59] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded from a low and then slightly corrected. The main contract rose 1.43% to close at 709. Spot prices also increased, with Qingdao Port PB fines rising 5 yuan to 761 yuan/ton. Steel mills' restocking demand increased, and trading volume expanded [64] Supply - From April 14th to April 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2437.7 tons, up 2.9 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1799.2 tons, up 92.9 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1574.3 tons, up 98.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 638.6 tons, down 89.9 tons. The global total shipments were 2925.5 tons, up 17.8 tons week - on - week [67] - The 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2449.2 tons, down 168.7 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrivals in April were 2475 tons, up 2.6 tons from March and 35 tons from last April [73] Rigid Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 244.35 tons/day, up 4.23 tons/day week - on - week, 19.2 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and 15.6 tons/day year - on - year. Demand was expected to remain high next week [76] Speculative Demand - Due to the easing of trade conflicts and the approaching May Day holiday, some traders and steel mills increased their restocking demand. The port iron ore spot trading volume continued to improve [79] Port Inventory - Last week, port inventory increased due to decreased port clearance. The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 14781 tons, up 231 tons week - on - week, 829.44 tons less than the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons less than the same period last year. It was expected to slightly decrease next week [82] Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 new - standard steel mills was 2771.39 tons, down 28.91 tons from the previous period. The total imported ore powder inventory increased by about 20 tons, and the overall change was not significant [85] Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.7 dollars/ton, up 0.66 dollars/ton, and from Brazil to China was 19.4 dollars/ton, up 0.57 dollars/ton [88] Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 26, the same as last week, at a neutral - low level. The 09 contract discount was 76, a relatively high level, narrowing 2 last week. The variety spread trading had no clear direction [90][93]

Report Information - Report Title: Variety Research Report - Stock Index Futures Weekly Report - Report Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid the backdrop of the April Politburo meeting, the strengthening of domestic macro - policy expectations may support the index, but factors such as insufficient fundamental drivers, upcoming performance reports, and tariff policy uncertainties may lead to continued index fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance 1.1 Market Review - The implementation of the April Politburo meeting and strengthened macro - policy expectations supported the market bottom, but due to insufficient fundamental drivers, performance reports under scrutiny, and tariff policy uncertainties, the index fluctuated widely. Most sectors rose, with sectors like building decoration leading in gains, while sectors such as light manufacturing and non - bank finance declined. From April 18 - 25, the CSI 300 rose 0.38%, the SSE 50 fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 rose 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.85%. The net short positions of IF, IH, and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while that of IM increased [2][6][8]. 1.2 Liquidity and Capital - As of the week of April 25, the overnight Shibor rate dropped by 11 basis points, and DR007 remained basically flat. The inter - bank market interest rate was stable. The net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 148.547 billion yuan, with 116.354 billion yuan from the main board and 28.079 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance decreased by about 1.191 billion yuan, and foreign capital data was not released [2][7]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In Q1 2025, GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, remaining stable. Consumption's contribution to economic growth increased significantly, while investment declined and exports slowed marginally. The April Politburo meeting recognized that external uncertainties have become real factors, and the role of domestic demand has been strengthened. The meeting emphasized implementing more proactive macro - policies, increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, and promoting consumption. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and intensity of macro - policies [2][14][16]. 3. Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US stock market rebounded in the past week, but the uncertainties brought by Trump's administration and the depreciation of the US dollar may limit the rebound height. In China, the April Politburo meeting has been implemented, and policy expectations may support the index. However, performance disclosure from late April to mid - May and tariff uncertainties still pose resistance to the rebound. It is expected that the index will likely continue to fluctuate. The investment strategy is to reduce positions and wait and see during the long holiday [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the egg industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises decreased slightly, the culling age decreased slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs remained basically the same, and the price of chicks continued to decline from a high level. - Due to the limited time this year when egg prices fell below feed costs, most breeding farms chose to extend the breeding period or molt the hens. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg supply was tight, but after May Day, with molting hens starting to lay eggs and the arrival of the rainy season in the South, there may be a situation of strong supply and weak demand. - Recently, the inventory pressure in the sales areas has increased. Egg traders mainly purchase based on rigid demand, and the sales in the production areas are slow, but the festival effect still provides short - term support. - The breeding profit has dropped significantly and is lower than the average level of the past four years. Currently, it is near the break - even point. If continuous losses occur, farmers may accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity. - The egg basis has decreased slightly this week, and the near - month futures contracts are still slightly at a discount. The current price difference between the near - term and far - term egg futures is at a medium level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract shows an oscillating state. - Based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle, the current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020. Before the production capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to wait and observe for reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes sub - sections on spot prices, egg basis, egg price differences, and futures institutional net positions [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culling situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [14][16][19][21] Demand Analysis - Consists of sub - sections on shipping volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [24][27][30] Profit Analysis - Includes breeding profit and egg - feed price ratio [33][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The industry inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The fundamentals are difficult to drive. It is expected that the main pulp futures contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5260 - 5520 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable softwood pulp and weak hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulps such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of hardwood pulps like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine decreased, with declines ranging from 2.25% - 3.41% [10]. - The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, natural pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp in South China, bamboo pulp in Southwest China, and reed pulp in Northeast China were all unchanged compared with the previous week [13]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review** - Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2507 fluctuated horizontally within a range of about 110 points. It finally closed at 5376 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (or +0.26%) for the week. The trading volume was 950,000 lots, an increase of 195,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 122,000 lots, a decrease of 22,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison** - Due to the fact that the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was slightly smaller than the increase in the pulp futures price last week, the futures - spot basis discount slightly decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 974 yuan/ton, a reduction of 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [19]. - **Log Futures Price Review** - The main log futures contract 2507 showed a downward - fluctuating trend last week. It finally closed at 796.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 26.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 3.16%) compared with the previous week's closing price. The trading volume was 136,000 lots, an increase of 77,200 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 31,200 lots, an increase of 5,400 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production** - Last week, the pulp production was 465,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons (or +0.93%). Among them, the hardwood pulp production was 181,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,100 tons (or +3.47%), and the chemical mechanical pulp production was 202,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons (or - 0.59%). It is expected that the domestic hardwood pulp production this week will be about 201,000 tons, and the chemical mechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate** - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 67.16%, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 85.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [26]. - In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 81.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% [33]. - **Monthly Pulp Production** - In March 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.213 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,500 tons (or +11.68%); the wood pulp production was 1.8549 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 182,000 tons (or +10.88%); the hardwood pulp production was 977,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76,800 tons (or +8.52%); the chemical mechanical pulp production was 877,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 105,200 tons (or +13.63%) [28]. - **Production Profit** - In March 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 1,300.05 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38.91 yuan/ton (or - 2.91%), and a year - on - year decrease of 705.72 yuan/ton (or - 35.18%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 213.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 yuan/ton [34]. - **Pulp Imports** - In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,100 tons (or +0.9%), and a year - on - year increase of 79,100 tons (or +2.50%). From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons (or +5%) [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Market Capacity Utilization and Production** - **Living Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic living paper production was 293,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 1.01%); the capacity utilization rate was 66.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In March 2025, the domestic living paper production was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons (or +10.2%), and a year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons (or +11.92%); the capacity utilization rate was 69.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% [40][60]. - **Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 78,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The offset paper production was 196,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons (or +0.05%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. In March 2025, the domestic cultural paper offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons (or +16.17%), and a year - on - year decrease of 84,000 tons (or - 8.88%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.41%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons (or +16.22%), and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons (or - 11.79%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [44][63]. - **Packaging Paper Market**: - **White Cardboard and White Board Paper**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 307,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.32%); the capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The white board paper production was 201,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.99%); the capacity utilization rate was 71.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. In March 2025, the domestic white cardboard production was 1.147 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (or +23.85%), and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.71%); the capacity utilization rate was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% [47][60]. - **Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper**: Last week, the corrugated paper production was 459,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons (or +2.46%); the capacity utilization rate was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The box board paper production was 618,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.16%); the capacity utilization rate was 68.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis** - **Living Paper and Cultural Paper**: Last week, in the living paper market, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 3.13%), and the price of bamboo pulp large - roll base paper in Sichuan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%). In the cultural paper market, the price of 70g Chenming Yunbao offset paper in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), and the price of 157g Chenming Xuelu copperplate paper decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%) [53]. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: Last week, in the white board paper market, the prices of Taicang Jiulong 240g Jianglong white board paper in Shandong and Tianjin Jiulong 250g Dilong white board paper decreased. In the white cardboard market, the prices of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g Red - crowned Crane and Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g Wanguo Sun remained unchanged [55]. - **Box Board Paper and Corrugated Paper**: Last week, the prices of box board paper and corrugated paper in Shandong remained stable [57]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption** - In March 2025, the predicted consumption of domestic pulp was 3.4 million tons, the predicted demand was 3.415 million tons, and the actual announced consumption was 3.441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 476,000 tons (or +16.05%) [65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory** - Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed an accumulation trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons (or +1.79%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.347 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 0.81%). The inventory in Changshu Port was 558,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41,000 tons (or +7.93%), and the inventory in Tianjin Port was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons (or +8.57%) [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts** - Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 325,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 4.44%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 281,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 5.09%) [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for the pig industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - Based on the cycle of the pig industry's fundamentals, the pig farming industry in 2025 may enter a pressure cycle, and prices will still face long - term downward pressure. However, in the short term, due to the impact of diseases and the boost of farming sentiment, pig prices in the second quarter may have short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - **1.1 Pig Spot Price**: The report mentions the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [3][4] - **1.2 Pig Basis**: The pig basis fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The near - far spread of pig futures has increased slightly and is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short position of institutional investors in the main pig futures contract is in an oscillatory state [2] - **1.3 Pig Spread**: The report shows the spread of each pig futures contract, but no specific analysis is given [8][9] - **1.4 Futures Institutional Net Position**: It presents the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September pig futures contract, with data from Wind, but no in - depth analysis [11][12][13] Supply Analysis - **2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory**: In March, the official breeding sow inventory was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Since May last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, and it is deduced that the theoretical slaughter volume may continue to be large in the second quarter of this year [2] - **2.2 Piglet Supply**: It shows the price ratio of piglets to pigs in Henan and the number of newborn piglets (in ten thousand heads), with data from WIND, but no specific analysis [17][18][20] - **2.3 Pig Slaughter**: The average weight of commercial pig slaughter in sample farming enterprises increased slightly this week, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. The report also provides the seasonal chart of the average weight of commercial pig slaughter and the pig slaughter structure, with data from Mysteel [2][23][24] - **2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread**: The standard - fat price spread widened slightly this week, and the report shows its daily and seasonal charts [2][25][26] Demand Analysis - **3.1 Pig Slaughter**: This week, the slaughter orders increased slightly, the slaughter profit decreased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency continued to decline, and the frozen product inventory increased slightly and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years [2] - **3.2 Frozen Product Inventory**: The willingness of secondary fattening to enter the market at low prices has strengthened recently, and the frozen product inventory has also increased significantly, which may provide short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter. The report shows the capacity utilization rate of frozen products and fresh meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of the capacity utilization rate of frozen products, with data from Mysteel [2][31][32] - **3.3 Substitutes**: It shows the seasonal charts of the price ratio of pork to eggs and vegetables, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, but no specific analysis [33][35] Profit Analysis - **4.1 Farming Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising farming profit is near the break - even point, and the pig - grain price ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years [2] - **4.2 Pig - Grain Price Ratio**: It shows the pig - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart, with data from the National Development and Reform Commission [40][41][42]

贸易冲突升级，钢价弱势下跌 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 报告主要观点 | | --- | 钢矿周度报告 2025-04-08 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货大幅下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉产量继续增加，电炉产量季节性回升 | | | 库存 | 建材库存去化速度加快，板材库存去化偏慢 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比增加同比偏低，板材需求近强远弱 | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润偏平，电炉亏损扩大 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅走扩，关注正套机会 | | | 总结 | 受美国加征关税影响，全球商品明显走弱，国内对冲政策暂未落地，宏观情绪转弱；产业变化：近期高炉产量增加，电炉开工继续回升，整体供应加速回 升；需求方面，终端需求环比增加，砂石发运同步走高，土建需求转好明显；建材总库存加速去化，板材库存降幅收窄，建材与板材强弱格局 ...

钢矿月度报告 2025-04 金三不及预期，黑色弱势回调 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货震荡下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉加速复产，电炉产量季节性回升 | | | 库存 | 建材库存季节性去化，板材库存降速偏平 | | | 需求 | 建材需求增速放缓，板材内外需韧性仍存 | | 材 | 利润 | 原料让利下跌，利润高位运行 | | | 基差 | 期现同步下跌，价差倒挂持续 | | | 总结 | 美国再提全球汽车加征关税，国内工业企业利润里跌幅收窄，宏观整体偏空。产业变化：本月高炉继续复产，铁水产量连续增加，电炉同步增产，整 体供应仍在回升，但速度已放缓；品种方面卷螺同步增产，五大材供应高于去年同期；需求方面，终端开工继续回升，制造业需求仍然稳定；库存来 看，建材总库存累积速度放缓， ...