国储支撑减弱，玉米高位回落 玉米月报 202503 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学课件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In March, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report on US and South American soybean production had a neutral impact. South American soybean harvest accelerated and exports increased, while US soybean exports were weak. However, the market expected a significant reduction in the intended planting area of new - season US soybeans, which supported the rebound of the US soybean futures after a decline. In China, due to the shortage of soybeans in oil mills and seasonal shutdown for maintenance, the operating rate of oil mills decreased continuously in March. The downstream trading and pick - up were average. With the expectation of a large increase in imported soybeans in April, the high - priced soybean meal spot prices dropped, dragging down the Dalian soybean meal futures. - It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on Dalian soybean meal under the intertwined long and short factors at home and abroad [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of the close at 15:00 on March 31, the monthly CBOT soybean closed at 1031.25 cents per bushel, up 6.25 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.61%. The monthly M2505 soybean meal closed at 2851 yuan per ton, down 81 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 2.76% [12]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Balance Sheet - **US Soybeans**: There were no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet in March compared to February. The planting area, harvest area, yield, etc. remained unchanged, with only minor changes in seed use and residual amounts [14]. - **Global Soybeans**: Global soybean production and domestic crushing were increased by 3 million tons to 352.84 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 3 million tons to 121.41 million tons. In China, crushing was increased by 2 million tons to 105 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 2 million tons to 43.96 million tons. In Argentina, domestic crushing was increased by 1 million tons to 42 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 1 million tons to 24.95 million tons [13][19]. 3.2.2 Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall and temperature in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas are normal [13]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending March 20, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 338,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were 45.7601 million tons, accounting for 92.13% of the export forecast in the March USDA report [29]. - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of the week ending March 23, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 76.4%, compared with 66.3% in the same period last year [32]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in March was 15.56 million tons, about 2.01 million tons more than the same period last year. Affected by Sino - US tariffs, the Brazilian soybean premium has temporarily stabilized [37]. 3.2.4 Supply - From January to February, the import of soybeans was 13.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8%. In the 12th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, with a decrease of 650,000 tons to 2.518 million tons [13][41][53]. 3.2.5 Demand - In March, the soybean crushing volume was 5.7605 million tons, a decrease of 785,900 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 2.733 million tons from the same period last year. The trading volume of oil mills in March was 2.0812 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons from the previous month, and the pick - up volume was 2.7017 million tons, a decrease of 186,400 tons from the previous month [13][44][50]. 3.2.6 Inventory - In the 12th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, while the soybean meal inventory increased. The soybean inventory was 2.518 million tons, a decrease of 650,000 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 749,200 tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentions tracking the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the 05 soybean - rapeseed meal spread, and the 05 oil - meal ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [55][56][57].

现货价格趋弱调整，期货震荡为主 正信期货花生月报 20250331 农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/ 美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/me ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, with overseas macro disturbances and uncertainties, the index is under pressure, and the market is likely to run cautiously under the dominance of weak reality. As negative factors are gradually released and the expectation of domestic loose policies rises, the market may gradually stabilize and show a volatile trend of first falling and then rising. In the long - term, technology remains the main line, but in the short - term, it is advisable to be defensive [2][20]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: In mid - and early March, strong policy expectations from the Two Sessions and domestic economic recovery expectations improved market risk appetite, pushing the index higher. After the policies were smoothly implemented and with increased domestic and overseas macro disturbances in April, the market showed a trend of rising first and then falling in March. As of March 28, the CSI 300 rose 0.65%, the SSE 50 rose 1.55%, the CSI 500 rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.03%. IF fell 0.41%, IH rose 1.19%, IC rose 0.53%, and IM fell 2.44%. The net short positions of IF, IH, and IM held by the top 20 institutional members increased, while that of IC decreased [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of March 28, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 13.7 basis points, and DR007 dropped 7.53 basis points, with the inter - bank market interest rate declining marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 965.295 billion, with 647.154 billion from the main board and 262.187 billion from the GEM. The margin trading balance increased by about 23.194 billion. Foreign capital data was not released [4][5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In March, the manufacturing PMI index showed seasonal recovery and continued expansion. The "new orders - finished goods inventory" index improved, and the decline of "factory price - raw material purchase price" narrowed, but manufacturing enterprises still faced profit pressure. Supply exceeded demand, and the export order index continued to contract. Large enterprises continued to expand with a slowing slope, while small and medium - sized enterprises were still below the boom - bust line. The economic recovery requires further policy stimulus, and in April, the Politburo meeting may be in a wait - and - see state with limited possibility of policy surprises, and the economy is likely to recover slowly [13][15]. Views and Strategies - **Overseas Situation**: In the US, economic growth and the labor market slowed marginally in February, inflation pressure remained obvious. Trump's tariff policy increased uncertainty, and the market was worried about the US economic downturn. The probability of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut this year is high, but the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in the short - to - medium - term. In early April, market uncertainty increased, leading to a decline in US stocks and a rise in US bonds [19]. - **Domestic Situation**: With the implementation of the Fed's March monetary policy and the resurgence of tariff concerns in April, the risk appetite of the equity market decreased, and the index entered an adjustment phase. Domestic economic data shows that further recovery needs policy support, and market sentiment is cautious with a preference for a defensive style. The investment strategy is that the style turns defensive, with IM and IC in correction and IF and IH in oscillation [20].

铁矿石期权：外矿发运环比回落，到港小幅回升；铁水产量 小幅下滑，港口库存基本持平，钢厂库存下滑，下游补库需 求持续进行。综合来看基本面供需双弱，后续钢厂补库有预 期。矿价下行，期权隐波处于中性水平，买入看跌价差为主。 注：本报告成交持仓数据为单边计算。 内容要点 铁矿石期权 标的行情回顾 1.1 期权行情回顾 1.2 铁矿石主连短期历史波动率上升；主力合约系列期权隐含波动率持平， 最新值为28%。 目 录 1.1、 标的行情回顾 铁矿石现货价格下行，月线收于793元/吨，环比下跌1.5%；DCE铁矿石先升 后降，指数月线收于798元/吨，环比下跌2.7%。 铁矿石期权日均成交量260753手，环比上升；总持仓量435768手，环 比上升。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 I2505系列期权日均成交78225手，环比上升；总持仓量273033手， 环比上升，持仓量PCR值增加，最新值为1.12。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 1.3 期权策略推荐 1.2、 期权行情回顾 谢 谢 观 看 | 正信期货研究院 | | --- | | 专业 深度 新鲜 | | 长按二维码识别订阅更多精彩 | 客服热线：400-700-0068 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in iron ore prices, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Iron ore spot prices closed at 835 CNY/ton, a 4% increase month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index closed at 831 CNY/ton, up 3.5% [9]. - Daily average trading volume for iron ore options was 347,985 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase, while total open interest was 360,031 contracts, reflecting a decrease [10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in iron water production, but a significant recovery in profit per ton of steel [18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices increased by 4% month-on-month, with the DCE iron ore index rising by 3.5% [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - Daily average trading volume for I2505 series options rose to 102,964 contracts, with total open interest increasing to 315,120 contracts [13]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options remained stable at 28% [14]. - The short-term historical volatility for iron ore was recorded at 24%, which is below the average level [16]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report recommends a strategy of buying put spreads, as the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong performance despite slight declines in production and inventory levels [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish outlook on iron ore, recommending to buy put options due to the anticipated decline in steel production and weak iron ore prices [16]. Core Insights - Iron ore prices experienced fluctuations, with the spot price stabilizing at 805 CNY/ton and the DCE iron ore index decreasing by 2% to 789 CNY/ton [8]. - External shipments of iron ore have increased, while arrivals at ports have slightly decreased, leading to a reduction in port inventories and a noticeable accumulation of steel mill stocks [16]. - The implied volatility of iron ore options has decreased and is currently at a low level, indicating a potential opportunity for buying put options [16][12]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices showed a mixed trend, closing at 805 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index fell by 2% to 789 CNY/ton [8]. - The average daily trading volume for iron ore options was 218,017 contracts, reflecting a decrease, while total open interest rose to 421,384 contracts [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - The I2505 series options saw an increase in average daily trading volume to 119,881 contracts, with total open interest rising to 321,710 contracts [11]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options has decreased to 25%, indicating lower market expectations for future price movements [12]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report highlights a recovery in steel mill production and iron output, despite a low arrival rate at ports and a significant accumulation of steel mill inventories [16]. - The anticipated reduction in crude steel production is expected to exert downward pressure on iron ore prices, reinforcing the recommendation to buy put options [16].

沪铜期权周报 20250224 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨询编号：Z0016959 Email： zhangjf@mfc.com.cn Tel：027-68851645 内容要点 铜价维持偏强运行 择机双卖做空波动率 标的分析：当前铜价主要受到宏观预期的支撑和推动，关税预期引发的通胀预期交易抬升铜价，上周 LME-CME价差创历史最大价差后有所收敛但依然维持高位，关税预期未落地，不确定性仍存。国内政 策预期良好，风险资产延续积极态势，支撑高位铜价。基本面来看，供给扰动加剧，现货TC跌至负值， 冶炼亏损状态比去年更甚，但目前铜价高位，精炼产量不低，下游复苏节奏偏慢，库存在进一步累升。 同时受关税预期扰动全球三大铜价差距进一步拉大，沪铜与LME铜价差走阔，导致出口利润窗口打开， 这一定程度或减缓国内累库进程，最终仍需看总显性库存增加情况。上周铜价高开低走，价格出现减 仓汇率，持仓水平位于47万手，从宏观预期来看，关税预期有反复，国内政策预期积极，铜价短期仍 以高位偏强对待。 期权策略：铜期权合约隐含波动率大幅回落，重心大幅下移。主力CU2503合约隐波率最新值 11.88%，较前值16.41%大幅减小，CU2504和 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry or related options strategies [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is influencing copper prices, with tariff expectations affecting inflation transmission, leading to a bearish outlook due to weak U.S. economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve [4][12]. - Domestic policy expectations during the Two Sessions period are relatively positive, contrasting with global trends [4][12]. - Supply disruptions are intensifying, with spot TC falling to negative values and refining losses worsening compared to last year, despite high copper prices and stable refined production [4][12]. - The price range for copper is expected to oscillate between 75,000 and 78,000, with recent attempts to breach 77,500 being unsuccessful [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In February 2025, copper prices experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai copper contract reaching a maximum of 78,740 CNY/ton and a minimum of 75,000 CNY/ton, closing at 76,840 CNY/ton, reflecting a monthly increase of 1.51% [7]. - London copper mirrored this trend, with a peak of 9,684.5 USD/ton and a low of 8,914.5 USD/ton, closing at 9,361.0 USD/ton, marking a monthly increase of 3.46% [7]. 2. Options Market Review - Total copper options trading volume in February 2025 was 1,475,487 contracts, an increase of 302,502 contracts from the previous month, with a latest open interest of 66,851 contracts, up by 14,864 contracts [8]. - The main contract CU2504 saw a total trading volume of 388,954 contracts, with an open interest of 48,459 contracts, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [9]. 3. Volatility Analysis - The short-term historical volatility for Shanghai copper fell significantly, with the latest 10-day historical volatility at 9.64%, down from 14.06% [10]. - The implied volatility for the main CU2504 contract decreased to 12.26%, down from 14.21%, indicating a substantial drop in market expectations for future price movements [11]. 4. Options Strategy Recommendations - Given the current market conditions, it is recommended to sell call options at high copper price points, as the market is expected to remain in a range-bound state due to tariff expectations [12].

黄金价格高位运行 期权投资者情绪保持偏多 黄金期权月报 202503 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨询编号：Z0016959 Email： zhangjf@mfc.com.cn Tel：027-68851645 2.1 期权成交持仓分析 内容要点 标的分析：2025年2月金价呈现冲高回落态势。上周五美国公布1月PCE物价指数，总体表现出通胀全面降 温趋势，核心PCE 录得2.65%，较上月下降0.19%，PCE 物价指数录得2.51%，较上月下降0.09%，结 构来看，商品分项同比转正，服务分项大幅降温，较上月下降0.46%至3.39%，与此前的PMI数据表现一致， 制造业在走向复苏，服务业在移民政策冲击下开始显著降温。由于关税政策总体弱于预期，总通胀仍然表现 出震荡下降的趋势，支撑美联储维持宽松货币政策，金融市场进一步修正对美联储利率路径的预期。根据 CME的FedWatch工具显示，市场预期2025年降息次数增至2-3次，且降息幅度约50-75bp，降息时点预期 在6月，9月和12月， 降息周期的利率终值下降至3.5%-3.75%区间，数据落地后美债利率持续下降，美十 债利率逼近4.2%的关口，金融属性驱动风险资 ...