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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. The June USDA report had a bullish impact on the market as it lowered the expected harvested area and yield per unit of US cotton, reducing the expected production to 14 million bales and the ending stocks by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. However, the net sales of US cotton exports last week were only 96,300 bales, a significant decrease from the previous week. Coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US cotton - growing regions recently, US cotton prices were under pressure. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, US cotton prices fluctuated weakly [6]. - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory was continuously being depleted, and the import of cotton was relatively low. Meanwhile, the downstream demand was in the off - season. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, there was little improvement in cotton prices. Currently, the sowing of new - season cotton in Xinjiang was completed, and the weather in the growing regions was normal, with cotton growing well. - Strategy: With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices will continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the sowing of new cotton is completed, and the weather in the growing regions is favorable. At the same time, the commercial inventory is continuously being depleted, and cotton imports are relatively low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, cotton prices will basically remain stable. Waiting for new market guidance, Zhengzhou cotton futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 13, the ICE US cotton 07 contract closed at 67.90 cents per pound, down 0.424 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.35%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, up 135 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.01% [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Sowing**: As of the week of June 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 49%, the same as the previous week, compared with 56% in the same period last year. The planting rate was 76%, up from 66% the previous week, compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The squaring rate was 12%, up from 8% the previous week, compared with 13% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 12% [12][16]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton exports were 60,000 bales, down from 110,000 bales the previous week; the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 36,000 bales, down from 39,000 bales the previous week [12][20]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. The operating rate of spinning mills decreased significantly. Spinning mills had limited orders, with the operating rate of small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas dropping to 50% - 60%, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills remained stable at 80% - 90% [12][23]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of the week of June 12, the inventory of cotton in mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.3 days of consumption. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The operating rate of downstream fabric mills decreased significantly, and raw material procurement slowed down. The raw material inventory of spinning mills showed an accumulating trend, with the inventory of some large mills in Xinjiang being about 35 - 40 days, and that of inland enterprises being about 15 - 25 days [12][27]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.098 million tons, a decrease of 111,200 tons (a decline of 3.47%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 2.2064 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,600 tons (a decline of 4.19%), and the commercial cotton inventory in the inland areas was 448,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.19% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 443,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentioned the tracking of cotton basis, 9 - 1 spread of cotton, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but did not provide specific data [34][35].

正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格持续下降， 淘鸡日龄持续下降，大小码价差小幅上升，鸡苗价格持 | 偏空 | | | 续下降。 | | | | 近十年统计结果显示，有6次梅雨季现货价格低点出现在7月上旬，3次出现在6月下旬，所以6-7 | | | | 月出现低点的概率较大。通常7-8月现货出现上涨，主要因为梅雨季淘鸡加速、高温天气导致产 | | | | 蛋率下降、中秋节前备货需求增加的影响。但目前淘鸡相对蛋价处于历史同期高位，7月20日入 | | | | 伏之前产蛋率也不会快速下滑，节前备货还未到启动的时候，所以季节性反弹还为时尚早。 | | | 需求 | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量基本持平，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅上升。 | 偏空 | | | 根据气象部门最新预测，今年南方梅雨季节时间长、降雨量大，鸡蛋质量面临较大挑战，或导致 | | | | 今年6月份需求低于往年同期。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走低，明显低于综合成本，处于近4年同期最低水平。 蛋鸡行业经过连 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The port inventory of pulp shows a cumulative trend, the supply pressure continues to intensify, the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, the pulp consumption in the base paper market fails to effectively recover, paper mills mainly digest raw material inventories, and the operating rate remains at a low level. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5110 - 5290 this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the market price of pulp spot was narrowly sorted. The prices of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp in Shandong area generally declined, with coniferous pulp silver star, kelip, and beimu down 0.81%, 0.80%, and 0.78% respectively; broad - leaf pulp goldfish, alpine down 0.49% and 1.20% respectively. The prices of natural color pulp and bamboo pulp also decreased slightly, with natural color pulp Venus down 2.91% and southwest bamboo pulp down 3.19% [8][11]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 first rose and then fell last week, closing at 5198 yuan/ton, down 0.50% for the week, with weighted trading volume and open interest increasing [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than the futures price, the basis discount continued to narrow slightly, with a discount of 858 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton narrower than last week [18]. - **Log Futures Price Review**: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a wide - range shock last week, closing at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.13% week - on - week, with trading volume increasing and open interest decreasing [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%. It is expected that the domestic broad - leaf pulp production will be about 21.2 tons and the chemimechanical pulp production will be about 19.8 tons this week [4][22]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Last week, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.5%, a week - on - week increase of 3.6%; the domestic chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In May 2025, the domestic pulp production was 199.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%; the wood pulp production was 165.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [29]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization Rate**: In May 2025, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.9%, a month - on - month increase of 8.68%; the chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 84.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In May 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 660.9 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.77%; the production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 418 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 192.55 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 301.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% and a year - on - year increase of 6.95%; the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 1555 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6% [39]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the offset paper production was 20.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [43]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the whiteboard paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, the white cardboard remained flat, the corrugated paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the boxboard paper decreased [46][49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the tissue paper price remained stable, the cultural paper decreased slightly, the whiteboard paper decreased slightly, the white cardboard remained stable, the boxboard paper remained stable, and the corrugated paper decreased slightly [50][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization Rate**: In May 2025, the tissue paper and white cardboard capacity utilization rates decreased month - on - month, the offset paper slightly increased, the copperplate paper decreased, and the domestic pulp actual consumption slightly decreased [60][63][66]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the domestic port inventory showed a cumulative trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 218.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Among them, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port continued to accumulate inventory, and Tianjin Port reduced inventory [67][69]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 24.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong area increased slightly [71].

供应端有所缩减，盘面下跌节奏放缓 煤焦周度报告 20250616 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面略有反弹，短期下跌节奏放缓；现货暂稳，仍有第四轮降价预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工下滑，供应端略有收紧 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪偏弱，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周中美和谈带来市场情绪短暂改善，周初双焦小幅反弹，但和谈未有超预期协议达成，加之美方对钢制家电加征关税，而钢材需求也进一步走弱，盘 面反弹乏力再度走弱，整体震荡走势。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌0.44%至1349.5，焦煤09合约跌0.58%至774.5。焦炭方面，受环保、检 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Spot peanuts are expected to maintain a high - level and slightly weak adjustment in the short term, and the futures price may return to the oscillation area. The strategy should mainly treat it as range - bound. Pay attention to the price performance at both ends of the 8000 - 8500 range for the 10 - contract [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Main View - This week, peanut prices in various producing areas reached a high and then slightly declined. Traders in Henan and Northeast China were cautious in high - price purchases, and the trading volume was light. The domestic market demand was flat, and the consumption progress of goods was slow. The arrival volume of imported peanuts decreased significantly compared with the same period. Oil mills were in the process of ending purchases, and the peanut oil market would end steadily. Domestic demand has not recovered, and there is a lack of trading volume to support price increases. However, due to the decreasing supply at the grass - roots level in producing areas and low inventory levels, prices are also difficult to fall sharply in the short term [6]. 2. Market Review - **2.1 This month**: The peanut weighted index briefly broke through the range, but the buyer's power was weak, and attention should be paid to the trading volume when the price pulls back. The price of the oilseed sector remained in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the direction of the breakthrough [8]. - **2.2 2510 contract**: The upward price increase of the 10 - main contract slowed down, and attention should be paid to the price pull - back situation [11]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Oil mill inventory and operating rate**: The weekly inventory of peanut oil was 40,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills was 8.42%, a decrease of about 3.1% compared with the previous week [14]. - **3.2 Peanut general price (Baisha)**: The prices in the main producing areas of Northeast and Henan continued to be strong and then slowed down in their upward trend [18]. - **3.3 Peanut oil price trend**: The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week was 14,950 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [21]. - **3.4 Peanut meal price trend**: The price of peanut meal was weakly oscillating this week, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal were oscillating upwards [25]. - **3.5 Imported peanut quantity and price**: There were few imported peanuts. The supply of Sudanese refined peanuts was limited, and no new peanuts had arrived at the port. The import price was rising strongly. The procurement of Senegalese peanuts was limited [29]. - **3.6 Market price index compared with last month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price was mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price was relatively stable [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - **4.1 Basis spread**: No specific analysis content was provided, only the data range of the basis spread was given [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons week-on-week to 17,471 tons, with an increase in lithium spodumene production. Due to the reduction in lithium ore costs, there is an expectation of an increase in non-integrated supply in June. In May, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 0.97 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 38%. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 861 tons week-on-week to 132,400 tons, with inventory in smelters, downstream, and other sectors at 57,100 tons, 41,100 tons, and 34,200 tons respectively. Smelters and other sectors had a slight inventory build-up, and the overall inventory is at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years remains significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, downstream demand in June is basically flat month-on-month, with a decline in production scheduling in the power sector and some rush-to-export behavior in energy storage cells. The terminal market maintains a relatively fast growth rate. From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 726,000 units, with a retail penetration rate of 53.5% [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.7% week-on-week, and the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.8% week-on-week. The decline in lithium ore prices has slowed down. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to support prices, while some traders are eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [5]. - Strategy: After lithium prices fell to a low level, supply disruptions increased, but they are not enough to reverse the oversupply situation. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. High inventory exerts some pressure on lithium prices, but further downward movement is likely to trigger supply disruptions. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the ore end and downstream production scheduling [5]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports in April increased slightly month-on-month**: From January to April, China imported 2.315 million tons of lithium spodumene. In April, China imported 622,900 tons of lithium spodumene, a month-on-month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 1.179 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 50.9%; 343,000 tons from South Africa, accounting for 14.3%; and 315,000 tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 13.6% [9]. - **The decline in lithium concentrate prices has slowed down**: This week, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.7% week-on-week, and the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines on the lithium spodumene side have a strong sentiment to support prices, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Some traders are eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [12]. - **China's lithium carbonate production in June may increase slightly month-on-month**: According to SMM, the total production of lithium carbonate in May decreased by 2% month-on-month and increased by 15% year-on-year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month-on-month respectively, while the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month-on-month respectively. According to research, the profitability of subcontractors has improved, and the production of the salt lake side has increased with the warming of the weather. It is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will increase slightly month-on-month in June [16]. - **Lithium carbonate imports**: From January to April, China imported 78,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons from Argentina, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, the scale of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in May was 9,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [20]. - **Spot prices decreased month-on-month**: This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8%. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This week, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 58,600 yuan per ton, a slight decrease from last week [21]. Demand Side - **The global new energy vehicle market started well**: The new energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. According to Rho Motion, in Q1 2025, global electric vehicle sales reached 4.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Among them, sales in Europe in Q1 were 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22%; sales in North America were 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%; and sales in China were 2.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The Chinese and European markets showed strong growth, while the growth rate in the US declined due to political factors [26]. - **The production of power batteries maintained a relatively high growth rate**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 0.03% and a year-on-year increase of 49.0%. From January to April, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 444.6 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 67.1%. From January to April, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China were 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 73.7%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 303.9 GWh, accounting for 75.2% of the total sales, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 56.8%; the cumulative sales of other batteries were 100.0 GWh, accounting for 24.8% of the total sales, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 157.8% [36]. - **China's mobile phone shipments increased slightly year-on-year**: In the first quarter of 2025, the shipments of China's smartphone market were 71.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production of electronic computer complete machines in China's first quarter was 85.322 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Behind this data is the upgrading of the entire industry chain driven by technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [41]. - **The mandatory energy storage allocation for new energy was cancelled**: In February, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 1.24 GW/2.89 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 153.5%. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to grow at a high speed year-on-year, with the total scale of energy storage systems and EPC reaching 4.6 GW/14.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49% in capacity scale. The "531" rush to install contributed a certain increment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New Energy Storage", clearly stating that "new energy projects shall not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, the energy storage allocation ratio will decrease, which may affect the annual demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [45]. - **Downstream production scheduling in June remained stable month-on-month**: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,470 yuan per ton, an increase of 240 yuan per ton from last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month-on-month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand in June was basically flat month-on-month, with a decline in production scheduling in the power sector and some rush-to-export behavior in energy storage cells [51]. Other Indicators - **Non-integrated lithium salt factories are operating at a loss**: Recently, with a slight decline in the price of lithium concentrate, the production cost of lithium salt factories has slightly decreased. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene is 69,464 yuan per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1,867 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene have fallen into a loss. The theoretical production profit of manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene is -8,764 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,267 yuan per ton [48]. - **The basis has narrowed this week**: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -240, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This week, the closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate was 60,440 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract has narrowed. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat month-on-month, with a price difference of 1,600 yuan per ton [54]. - **The price difference between contracts has widened**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the price difference between the first continuous contract and the near-month contract was negative. The price difference between the first continuous contract and the near-month contract was -40, the same as last week, and the price differences between different contracts have widened [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices strengthened at the end of the week after fluctuations, with tariff expectation pricing disturbing the market again. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, but this driver is not strong enough to sustain the upward trend of the market. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and attention should be paid to changes in employment conditions. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate is still at a restrictive level, and the next rate cut may be a "recessionary rate cut" [5][85]. - The problem of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, and the refined copper output in May reached a new high. Domestic demand has seasonally weakened, the copper product operating rate has declined, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories has weakened. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games. After the price increase of COMEX copper, the price relationship is COMEX copper > LME copper > Shanghai copper, and the domestic spot buying has weakened [6][86]. - It is recommended to consider selling CALL options for the near - month contracts and buying PUT options for the far - month contracts [6][86]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's manufacturing increased by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but it has been below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months, and the demand side is under pressure due to tariff games [12]. - The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, and the price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has widened to over $1000, but the driving force is not as strong as the previous time [5][13][85]. Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, the global copper mine output was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual output in 2024 was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, the global copper mine output was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025 and 180,000 tons in February [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores; from January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [24]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 6, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $43.29 per dry ton, an increase of $0.27 from the previous period. The second mid - year negotiation between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta has not started yet [28]. Refined Copper Output - In May, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative output increased by 544,800 tons, a rise of 11.09%. It is estimated that the output in June will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.63%, but a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, a rise of 12.55% [36]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%; in December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%; in December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [45]. Refined - Scrap Spread - In May, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 29.92%, lower than the expected 32.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13%. In June, as orders approach the delivery period, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises may increase slightly [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, the cumulative power investment from January to December was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [52]. - **Air - conditioners**: In December 2024, the monthly output of air - conditioners was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; from January to December 2024, the cumulative output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to April 2025, the output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with a decreasing growth rate [56]. - **Automobiles**: In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. In April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 4.429 million and 4.3 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively [60]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the cumulative real estate completion area from January to December was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In April 2025, the completion area was 156 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%, and the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 6, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 427,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,614 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 132,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,400 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 7,250 tons to 187,900 tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 58,000 tons as of June 5, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [65]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 3, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,094 lots, a weekly increase of 1,513 lots. The non - commercial long position was 71,249 lots, a weekly increase of 1,305 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 47,155 lots, a weekly decrease of 208 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 6, the LME copper spot premium was $69.84 per ton. The LME copper spot has turned to a premium and is rising. Attention should be paid to the potential risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. The domestic spot market has a large price difference between different brands, and attention should be paid to the risk of an expanded monthly spread next week [79]. Basis - As of June 6, 2025, the basis between the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 80 yuan per ton [81].