1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the price of crude oil may remain strong in the new week. The trading of U.S. biodiesel continues, and external disturbances outweigh the industrial fundamentals, leading to a short - term bullish trend in both domestic and foreign oils and fats. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation. The September spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has returned above 1,200, and the previous position for widening the spread should be held cautiously. Attention should also be paid to the January soybean contract. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Points - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days of June, and production decreased by 4% in the first half - month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 43.3% month - on - month in May. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, the U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory was 1.373 billion pounds. In China, the imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 336,000 tons respectively. Last week, the spot trading of soybean oil was good, and downstream palm oil buyers restocked. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 850,000 tons and 410,000 tons respectively. [7] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the policy of U.S. biodiesel is becoming clearer, continuously disturbing the crude oil and oils and fats markets. The POGO spread has continued to decline. [12][13] - **U.S. Soybeans**: The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than expected. The NOPA's U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory in May was at a multi - year low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans rose to 100 cents per bushel. [12] - **Palm Oil**: In the first half - month of June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days. Indonesia's palm oil exports continued to increase in May. India lowered the basic import tax on crude edible oils and cancelled some palm oil orders for July - September. [12] - **Imports and Crushing**: China imported 1.3918 million tons of soybeans in May, with a cumulative import of 3.7108 million tons from January to May, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 335,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 8.4%, - 20.3%, and - 26.12%. The soybean crushing rate continued to rise, and the soybean inventory in oil mills stopped increasing. The rapeseed crushing rate was low, and the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continued to decline. [12] - **Inventory**: As of mid - June, the soybean oil inventory increased for 7 consecutive weeks to 850,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 810,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month; the palm oil inventory increased slightly to 410,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils and fats increased to 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.66 million tons in the same period last year. [12] - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats rose. As of June 20, the price of soybean oil was 8,400 yuan/ton, a 4.5% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,863 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,936 yuan/ton, a 4.22% increase. [12] - **Demand**: Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean and rapeseed oils increased, and palm oil was purchased for rigid demand. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 138,200 tons, compared with 106,600 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2,308 tons, compared with 12,965 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 47,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous week. [12] 3.4 Spread Tracking No detailed content provided other than the section title.

正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-23 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 政策引导下猪价偏强震荡 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重连续两周持续下降、标肥价差基本持平、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 据悉，在5月底相关部门召集头部猪企开会后，6月10日农业农村部也召开了生猪生产调度会，全国 | | | | 畜牧总站和各省农业厅参加。这次会议对各省提出了具体的生猪生产调控目标，主要政策包括：全 | | | 供应 | 国能繁母猪调减100万头至3950万头；优化生猪生产，加大弱仔淘汰力度，引导降低出栏体重，国储 | 偏多 | | | 收储体重要求降至115公斤；加强监测，地方也要将二育等情况纳入监测，每月向农业部上报各地能 | | | | 繁、存栏、均重、二育等情况。 | | | | 本次调控并不仅限于头部集团企业，而是面对整个生猪养殖行业的调控。目前头部企业已经做出表 | | | | 率，稳步降低能繁母猪存栏量，并明确了降重计划，未来2-3个月的时间里将均重将至120公斤。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅下降，屠宰利润小幅下降 ...

Report Title - "Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025-6-23" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall rating for eggs: Neutral in supply, bearish in demand, bullish in profit, neutral in price and volume, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3] Report's Core View - Short-term sentiment dominates, and the market will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: The report mentions the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices, but no specific data is provided [4][6] - **Egg Basis**: This week, the egg basis increased slightly, and the near - month futures contracts are in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The near - far spread of egg futures increased slightly and is at a medium level. The net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract decreased, but the fluctuations were intense [3] - **Egg Spread**: The report focuses on the spreads of various egg futures contracts, but no specific data is provided [10][11] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: The net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract decreased, but the fluctuations were intense [3][13] Supply Analysis - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The report mentions laying hen inventory and its structure, but no specific data is provided [16][17] - **Culled Hen Situation**: This week, the price of culled hens in sample breeding enterprises increased slightly, and the average culling age continued to decline. The culled hen price relative to the egg price is at a high level in the same period of history, and the egg - laying rate will not decline rapidly before July 20th [3][18][19] - **Replenishment Situation**: The price of commercial layer chicks continued to decline, and the report also mentions the utilization rate of hatching eggs, but no specific data is provided [3][21][22] - **Large and Small - Sized Eggs Situation**: The price difference between large and small - sized eggs decreased slightly, and the report also shows the price of large and small - sized eggs and the seasonal chart of the price difference, but no specific data is provided [3][24][25] Demand Analysis - **Shipping Volume and Sales Volume**: This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas decreased slightly, and the shipping volume in the main production areas increased slightly [3][27][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased slightly [3][30][31] - **Substitutes**: The report shows the seasonal charts of the price ratio between eggs and pork and between eggs and vegetables, but no specific data is provided [33][35] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Profit**: The breeding profit increased slightly, significantly lower than the comprehensive cost, and at the lowest level in the same period in the past 4 years. The recent rebound in egg prices is the result of cost increase, e - commerce promotions, and seasonal bullish sentiment, rather than a reversal of the supply - demand fundamentals [3][36] - **Egg - Feed Price Ratio**: The report shows the egg - feed price ratio, its equilibrium point, and the seasonal chart, but no specific data is provided [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: The Fed's new economic forecast predicts slower economic growth and rising inflation, but policymakers still expect rate cuts later this year. There are significant differences in opinions among officials, with 7 believing no rate cuts are needed, 8 expecting two cuts, 2 predicting one cut, and 2 forecasting three cuts. Fed officials Waller and Barkin have different views on the timing of rate cuts [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical situations had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, with dull spot transactions and stable social inventories. On the supply side, the periodic supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad plan to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the marginal TC of zinc ore spot. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc production has recovered marginally. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down global economic growth, and there are concerns about a contraction in zinc demand. Whether the demand outlook is optimistic or pessimistic, there is a tendency of oversupply in the zinc market, putting downward pressure on long - term zinc prices [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to low social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. It is advisable to consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 is set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. As of June 20, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $55.27/ton, and that for domestic ore was 3,600 yuan/ton, both having been raised recently [10]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelters' profits have been continuously improved [13]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc production was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Downstream buyers over - purchased and replenished stocks at low prices, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of June 20, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $24.65/ton. Due to low social inventories, the spot premium is relatively high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 13, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 4,817 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

Report Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 06 - 23: Off - season Market Continues, Black Narrow - range Fluctuation" [1] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Core Views Steel - Price: Spot prices rose slightly, while the futures market fluctuated at a low level [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production stopped falling and rebounded, while electric furnace production continued to decline [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, while that of plates accelerated [7] - Demand: Building materials demand declined month - on - month, and there was great downward pressure on the domestic demand for plates [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits remained high, while electric furnace profits continued to narrow [7] - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit [7] - Summary: In May, the macro data was weak, and the market was worried about the drag on consumption data after the slowdown of national subsidies. The overall supply increased month - on - month. The market still showed off - season characteristics. It is expected that the price will return to the off - season fluctuating and falling trend. Maintain the mid - term short - selling idea [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices fluctuated, and the futures market rebounded at a low level [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also weakened [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand improved month - on - month [7] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, while downstream inventories increased slightly [7] - Shipping: Shipping costs both declined [7] - Spread: The futures spread narrowed, and the spread declined slightly [7] - Summary: Last week, the supply - demand situation improved slightly month - on - month. Considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further iron ore price increases is low. Maintain the long - term bearish view [7] Summary by Directory Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Shanghai rebar spot prices and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed certain trends. Last week, rebar futures fluctuated sideways, with the main contract rising 0.77% to close at 2992. Spot prices rose slightly, with rebar in East China reported at 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan week - on - week [10][13] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 242.18 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons week - on - week [16] - Electric furnace production: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.54%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points week - on - week. The average operating rate was 70.93%, a decrease of 3.08 percentage points week - on - week [24] - Product output: Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons week - on - week [27] 1.3 Demand - Building materials: According to the survey data of Centennial Building, as of June 17, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The overall terminal demand was gradually declining [30] - Plates: From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 706,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The manufacturing demand was expected to weaken [33] 1.4 Profit - Long - process: The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. Long - process steel mills benefited from the four - round coke price cut and still had high profits [38] - Electric furnace: As of the 20th, the average profit of sample electric arc furnace steel mills was - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton day - on - day [38] 1.5 Inventory - Building materials: The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,338.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.67 tons. Rebar inventory was still being de - stocked, but the speed slowed down [41] - Plates: The hot - rolled coil inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.4 days to 7.2 days. Both factory and social inventories changed from previous accumulation to de - stocking [44] 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 01 contract narrowed significantly. It was recommended to close reverse arbitrage positions at around 80 last week, and all positions have been closed at a profit [47] 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was 7, an increase of 6 week - on - week. The contango situation was completely reversed. The near - term contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - term contract also faces risks [50] 1.8 Inter - product - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 124, an increase of 11 week - on - week. The spot spread was 140, an increase of 50 week - on - week. There is no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing [53] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing flat at 703. Spot prices rose synchronously, with PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 1 yuan to 710 yuan/ton [58] 2.2 Supply - Shipments: Global iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 2043.6 tons, and those from Brazil were 759.2 tons [61][64] - Arrivals: The arrivals at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current value was 2517.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 156 tons [67] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased. The current output was 242.18 tons/day, an increase of 0.57 tons/day week - on - week [70] - Speculative demand: The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.9 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons week - on - week. Downstream steel mills resumed production, and there was still overall restocking demand [73] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current total inventory was 14433.56 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [76] - Downstream inventory: On June 19, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2719.47 tons, an increase of 56.73 tons from the previous period [79] 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.77 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 22.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.08 US dollars/ton week - on - week [82] 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 29, a narrowing of 1.5 week - on - week. The 09 contract was at a discount of 28, a narrowing of 6 last week [85] - The coke - to - ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26. The two ratios changed little, and the spread trading fluidity was not high [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 335 tons week - on - week to 18,500 tons. Due to the reduction in lithium ore costs, subcontractors are gradually resuming work, and there is an expected increase in non - integrated supply in June. In May, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 38%. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,352 tons week - on - week to 134,900 tons. The inventories in smelters, downstream, and other sectors were 58,600 tons, 40,400 tons, and 35,900 tons respectively. There was a slight inventory build - up in smelters and other sectors, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [7]. - Demand side: According to research, downstream demand may increase slightly month - on - month in June, and the industry is gradually entering the off - season. The production schedule in the power sector has declined, and there is a certain behavior of rushing to export in energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintains a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market reached 402,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate remained basically flat week - on - week, while the price of lepidolite concentrate decreased by 1.2% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices, but downstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to purchase due to their pessimistic expectations for future prices [7]. - Strategy: Demand is gradually entering the off - season, while supply remains relatively high. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. High inventory exerts a certain downward pressure on lithium prices, but further price drops are likely to trigger supply disruptions. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, it is not advisable to chase short positions. In the medium term, maintain the idea of shorting on rallies and pay attention to the trends at the mine end [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - 5 - month lithium spodumene import volume decreased slightly month - on - month: From January to May, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 2.92 million tons. In May, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, in May, 371,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 24.1%; 52,500 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month increase of 29.9%; and 97,000 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2% [11]. - The decline of lithium concentrate has slowed down: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate remained basically flat week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate decreased by 1.2% week - on - week. Overseas mines on the spodumene side have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Downstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to purchase due to their pessimistic expectations for future prices [14]. - China's lithium carbonate production may increase slightly month - on - month in June: In May, SMM's total lithium carbonate production decreased by 2% month - on - month and increased by 15% year - on - year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month - on - month respectively, while the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month - on - month respectively. According to research, the profitability of subcontractors has improved, and the production of the salt - lake side has increased with the warming of the weather. It is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will increase slightly month - on - month in June [18]. - Lithium carbonate import volume: From January to April, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 78,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons were imported from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in May was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [21]. - Spot price remained basically flat week - on - week: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,400 yuan per ton, remaining basically flat week - on - week. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This week, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,800 yuan per ton, remaining basically flat week - on - week [22]. Demand Side - The global new - energy vehicle market started well: The new - energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. In Q1 2025, global electric vehicle sales reached 4.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Among them, European sales in Q1 were 900,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22%, North American sales were 500,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 16%, and Chinese sales were 2.4 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The Chinese and European markets had strong growth, while the growth rate in the US declined due to political factors [27]. - Power battery production maintained a high growth rate: In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. From January to May, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 568.1 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 62.6%. In May, the sales of power and other batteries in China were 123.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.7% and a year - on - year increase of 58.1%. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 87.5 GWh, accounting for 70.8% of the total sales, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 55% [37]. - China's mobile phone shipments increased slightly year - on - year: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production of electronic computer complete machines in China's first quarter was 85.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, with two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Behind this data is the upgrading of the entire industrial chain driven by technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [42]. - May energy - storage installation maintained a high growth rate: According to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink, the installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy - storage projects in China in May this year totaled 6.32 GW/15.85 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 193%/228%. The "531" rush to install contributed a certain increment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New - Type Energy Storage", clarifying that "new - energy projects shall not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of compulsory energy - storage installation, the proportion of energy - storage installation will decrease, which may affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [47]. - June downstream production schedule increased slightly month - on - month: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,630 yuan per ton, an increase of 200 yuan per ton compared with last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand may increase slightly month - on - month in June. The production schedule in the power sector declined, and there was a certain behavior of rushing to export in energy - storage cells [53]. Other Indicators - Non - integrated lithium salt factories had cost inversion: Recently, as the price of lithium concentrate stabilized, the production cost of lithium salt factories increased slightly. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 70,169 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene have fallen into losses. The theoretical production profit of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was - 9,869 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 426 yuan per ton [50]. - This week, the basis widened: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was 1,500, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate this week was 589,020 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract widened. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat month - on - month, with a price difference of 1,600 yuan per ton [56]. - The price difference between contracts widened: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract was negative. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract was - 460, a decrease of 420 compared with last week, and the price differences between different contracts widened [59].

Report Information - Report Name: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250623 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices showed a volatile trend during the week. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% strengthened the expectation of copper tariffs, but this factor was not strong enough to drive the market up continuously. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and the employment situation needs attention. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate remains at a restrictive level. There is a probability that the next cut could be a "recessionary cut", which depends on "hard data" to signal recession risks [4][85]. - The issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper output reaching a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further reduction of social inventory is weakening. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to a continuous reduction of LME copper inventory [4][85]. - Overall, after reaching a high, copper prices retreated with reduced positions. The macro - situation remains under pressure, and the fundamental demand has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on selling CALL options and moderately increase positions in buying PUT options for far - month contracts [4][85]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but still below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months. New orders and new export orders remained weak, and the demand side was under pressure due to tariff games [11]. - The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate remains restrictive. There is a possibility of a "recessionary cut" based on future "hard data" [4][12][85]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global copper mine production: In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, the global copper concentrate output was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, global copper mine production was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons [20]. - China's copper concentrate imports: In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, the copper concentrate import data was lower than expected, with imports of about 2.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the monthly average of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [25]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On June 20, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 44.78 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory on June 20 was 712,100 physical tons, a decrease of 100,700 physical tons from the previous period. The long - term processing fee benchmark for 2025 was set at 21.25 US dollars per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [29]. Refined Copper Production - In May, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative production increased by 544,800 tons, an increase of 11.09%. In June, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, an increase of 12.55% [37]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's import of copper scrap and waste was 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [46]. Refined - Scrap Spread - This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 24.12%, a decrease of 4.91 percentage points from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 16.86 percentage points. The average spread between refined and scrap copper rods was 1,174 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 154 yuan month - on - month. The market shows a two - way suppression pattern of "shrinking terminal demand - tightening raw material supply" [49]. Consumption - end - Power and Grid Investment: In 2024, from January to December, the cumulative power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to April, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [53]. - Air - conditioning: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioning output was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioning output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to May 2025, the air - conditioning output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and the industry entered the off - production season [55]. - Automobiles: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, the production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. For new energy vehicles, in May, the production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May, the production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% [60]. - Real Estate: In 2024, from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 20, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 401,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. The LME copper inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 99,200 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,129 tons to 100,800 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 5,150 tons to a five - year high of 201,200 tons. As of June 19, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 64,300 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from last week [67]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 10, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,351 lots, a weekly increase of 2,257 lots. The non - commercial long position was 72,101 lots, a weekly increase of 852 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 45,750 lots, a weekly decrease of 1,405 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 20, the LME copper spot premium was 274.99 US dollars per ton. After the contract change of SHFE copper on June 20, the spot premium continued to decline. Next week, the SHFE copper spot premium will be further pressured [79]. Basis - As of June 20, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper No. 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 740 yuan per ton [81].

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铁水小幅回升，盘面弱势反弹 煤焦周度报告 20250623 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | | 报告主要观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 上周盘面弱势反弹，预计延续低位震荡；现货第四轮提降开启，预计很快落地 | | | 供给 | 独立焦企开工延续小幅下滑，钢厂自带焦化产能利用率小幅回升 | | | 需求 | 铁水转增，钢厂继续控制原料到货；投机情绪一般，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 港口库存止降，焦企、钢厂库存下滑，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利略有回升，焦炭盘面利润小幅增加 | | 焦炭 | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | | 上周陆家嘴金融论坛未有超预期政策，但钢材再度增产，铁水转而小幅增加，市场情绪略有提振，双焦弱势反弹。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨2.9% 至1384.5，焦煤09合约涨2.78%至795。焦炭方面，环保扰动仍存，外加检修等，独立焦企开工继续小幅下滑。需求方面，虽 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For aluminum's inter - period arbitrage, domestic demand is entering the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods starting to accumulate inventory, and the social inventory inflection point approaching. There is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage on dips [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new global zinc mine projects put into production this year are expected to gradually release incremental output. While aluminum's social inventory is low, which supports the price and has a stronger fundamental than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME aluminum rose 2.34%, LME zinc rose 0.86%, LME lead rose 0.13%, LME nickel fell 0.33%, LME tin fell 0.27%, SHFE copper fell 0.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.12%, SHFE zinc rose 0.14%, SHFE lead fell 0.80%, SHFE nickel fell 1.37%, and SHFE tin fell 1.19% [9]. - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Aluminum's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, the single - side open interest of aluminum, lead, and nickel increased by 7.3%, 1.9%, and 7.5% respectively, while that of copper, zinc, and tin decreased by 3.7%, 13.6%, and 7.2% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part II: Non - Ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.34%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.94%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3.65%, LME lead inventory increased by 7.21%, LME nickel inventory increased by 3.85%, and LME tin inventory decreased by 3.76% [28]. - **Profit**: This week, copper's processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and smelters' loss was 2,651 yuan/ton with a slightly narrowed loss month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,586 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,114 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 814 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - Ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On June 20, 2025, the copper basis was 500, the aluminum basis was 235, the zinc basis was 285, the lead basis was 190, the nickel basis was 2360, and the tin basis was 2510 [46]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: Data shows the historical trends of LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin's premium and discount (0 - 3) from 2019 to 2025 [54]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. Copper's continuous - one minus near - month spread was - 240, an increase of 100 compared to last week; aluminum's was - 95, an increase of 325; zinc's was - 170, an increase of 25; lead's was 35, unchanged from last week; nickel's was 140, an increase of 320; and tin's was - 50, a decrease of 440 [61]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - London ratios are at historically high levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major base metals were 1.12 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.15 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.09 for nickel, and 1.11 for tin [80]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, lead's import profit and loss was 493, while that of other major metals was negative. Cross - market arbitrage can consider factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [80]. Part V: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread Data**: Detailed data on the ratios and spreads of copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, copper - nickel, copper - tin, zinc - aluminum, aluminum - lead, aluminum - nickel, aluminum - tin, zinc - lead, zinc - nickel, zinc - tin, lead - nickel, lead - tin, and nickel - tin at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago are provided, including ratio values and their percentile rankings [97].